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United States
The Economist July 9th 2022 Latino voters
No, no se puede
WASHINGTO N, DC
Democrats have a Hispanic problem
S
outhern texas, a heavily Hispanic re gion along the American border with Mexico, was once a Democratic stronghold as reliable as any urban core. But it now ap pears to be crumbling. Last month a special election was held to pick the next repre sentative for the state’s 34th congressional district, which snakes 250 miles (400km) down from the San Antonio exurbs to the border city of Brownsville and the south ernmost tip of the state. Some parts of the district have been represented continu ously by Democrats since 1870. Barack Oba ma carried it by 23 percentage points in 2012. It is 85% Hispanic. Yet it was a Republican, Mayra Flores (pictured), who triumphed. The fi rst Mexi canborn congresswoman in American history is hardly a moderate. She is a pro life, antivaccinemandate Republican who is searingly critical of illegal immigra tion (and married to a Border Patrol agent, to boot). Democrats are starting to realise that they have a Hispanic problem. Party strat egists who hoped that Donald Trump’s ra cially incendiary rhetoric, his campaign pledge of a big, beautiful border wall and the fi asco of his familyseparation policy might have pushed more Hispanic voters into the Democratic camp found the oppo site. Between 2016 and 2020, Mr Trump im proved his share of the Hispanic vote, ac cording to numbers crunched by Catalist, a Democraticaligned politicaldata fi rm— from 29% to 37%. Among all major ethnic groups, that shift was the largest. The Democratic erosion was worst along the Texas border and in Southern Florida—dimming Democrats’ hopes of winning Senate seats or governorships in those states. In the district fl ipped by Ms Flores, Hillary Clinton won 59% of the vote in 2016. President Joe Biden managed just 51.5% against 47.5% for Donald Trump. Re publicans are now seriously contesting three congressional districts in Southern Texas. In Florida, analysis by Equis Re search, which specialises in Hispanic pub lic opinion, shows that in majorityLatino precincts of MiamiDade County, Mr Trump improved his performance from 30% of the vote in 2016 to 50% in 2020. In both Texas and Florida, local condi tions may be magnifying the national trend. Open borders and police abolition are dirty words, not the stuff of liberating slogans, for Hispanics who live along the
southern border. Antipathy for encroach ing socialism is especially high among Hispanics in southern Florida, many of whom arrived as refugees from dictatorial communist or leftist regimes. Research by Equis shows that more Hispanic voters (and many more so in Florida) said they worried about Democrats embracing so cialism and leftism than they did about Re publicans embracing fascism and anti democratic politics. Southern Texas Democrats, who are overwhelmingly Hispanic, have “always been more conservative than Hispanics elsewhere”, says Mark Jones, a professor of Latin American studies at Rice University in Houston. Henry Cuellar, a Democratic congressman facing a close race to keep his district, on the border with Mexico, is the only Democrat in the House of Representa tives who opposes abortion. Mr Jones notes that his polling of Hispanics in Texas shows that those who are male, evangelical or have two white grandparents are gravi tating towards the Republican Party fast est. For conservative Hispanics, the Demo crats’ national brand has become associat ed with gun control, trans rights, lax bor der policy and limited support for law enforcement, and is therefore less palat able. Although more Democrats running in border states have recently taken to criti cising Mr Biden’s immigration policy, it may be too little, too late.
On both the economy and culture, Re publicans claim to be the rightful party of the working class, whether white or His panic. “The numberone reason for suc cess is how terrible the Democrats are. They’ve taken this farleft socialist turn, and it has turned a lot of Hispanic voters off ,” says Tony Gonzales, a Republican con gressman from Texas’s 23rd district, which stretches along the southwestern border. Mr Gonzales notes that antipolice rhetoric does especially poorly in a district like his where many Hispanics have family who work in law enforcement. Mario DíazBalart, a Republican con gressman from southern Florida, argues that the Democratic Party has simply be come out of touch. “It’s become the party of the corporate elites, it’s become the party of the media elite…‘Latinx’ comes to mind. No Latino, no Hispanic calls themselves Latinx,” he says. Ruben Gallego, a Demo cratic representative from Arizona, has be rated his party for ignoring that linguistic reality, and argues that the genderneutral adjective is used only to “appease white rich progressives”. Only 2% of Hispanics say they use the term. Messrs Gonzales and DíazBalart re cently launched the Hispanic Leadership Trust, a political action committee to sup port the election of conservative Latino candidates. One of the new breed of Repub licans it might help put in offi ce is George Santos, a gay son of Brazilian immigrants, who is running for a tossup congressional seat on Long Island in New York. He notes Latinos are conservative by nature. “South America is the largest Catholic, Christian continent in the world…I think that this ex cessive leftleaning social agenda that the Democrats are pushing is counterproduc tive. And the Republicans for the fi rst time are hitting the messaging right.” n
The triumphant face of Texas’s new Republicans
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