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Europe
The Economist July 9th 2022
Ukraine’s counteroff ensive
Kherson bound
ZE LE NO DO LSK AND KRY V YI RIH
Driving Russian occupiers from the south will be a fierce fight
I
n the early days of the war in Ukraine, a rapid Russian advance plunged Kherson province into darkness. What little is known about life there comes from refu gees who escape to frontline towns such as Zelenodolsk. They come by foot, bike, boat and in wheelchairs. One woman was dragged by her son on a carpet. At one point, nearly 1,000 were arriving a day. De stroyed bridges and increased risks have cut the daily count to single digits. But a vast yard of abandoned bicycles, wheel chairs and baskets stands as a memorial to the lives left behind—temporarily, so those who have fl ed hope. The most recent arrivals talk of intense fi ghting as Ukraine readies itself to coun terattack from the west, near Mykolaiv, and the north, from towns like Zeleno dolsk. Vlad Milin, 31, and Olha Shelemba, 26, said that shelling had become so relent less in their village, Dovhove, that they de cided to travel with their fi ve young chil dren in a boat, then navigate fi elds and mined roads to safety. There was little point in watching the battle unfold, they
said. “Neither side is going to give up.” Kherson, a gateway to Crimea, is the only regional capital Russia has captured since the war began on February 24th. Just as important to Russia’s southern strategy is its occupation of neighbouring Kakhov ka, on the left bank of the Dnieper, where a dam provides the annexed peninsula’s wa ter. The region is an agricultural power house, growing tomatoes, watermelons, sunfl owers and soyabeans. For these rea sons and more, Ukraine is trying hard to re take it. The country’s forces can already boast tactical successes. A militaryintelli → Also in this section
50 Disappeared in Ukraine
51 Poland’s boom town
51 Germany’s Poland problem
52 A new French government
52 Navalny in Russia’s gulag
53 Charlemagne: Airport chaos
gence offi cer says forward units are within sniper range (a kilometre or so) of Chorno baivka, an outer suburb of Kherson. “The next week or two will be even more inter esting,” he promises. Whatever is under way does not yet ap pear to be a fullfl edged counteroff ensive. Ukraine remains focused on halting Rus sia’s advance in the east; on July 2nd its troops retreated from Lysychansk in Lu hansk province. Its southern grouping does not enjoy the threetoone advantage strategists recommend for an off ensive. Soldiers complain of a shortage of ammu nition and infantry. “There is a tendency by our bosses to overstate success on the bat tlefi eld,” says Banderas, the nom de guerre of a Ukrainian reconnaissance command er. That could change only if more Western rocket systems are used in the southern theatre, he adds. Currently only a handful of M777 howitzers are deployed there. Where the Ukrainians are pushing, the Russians are fi ghting back. Serhiy, a Ukrai nian territorialdefence soldier working behind Russian lines in Vysokopillya, just across from Zelenodolsk, says the enemy has built reinforced bunkers under the ground. When they try to push the Rus sians out, they return in greater numbers. “Their ten becomes a hundred,” he says. One village base has four airdefence units protecting it. Ukraine’s task has been hin dered, the soldier complains, by locals who have not fl ed the occupation and are being used by Russian troops as human shields:
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