Journal of International Affairs
Spring 2022 Volume 1, No. 2 Patrick Henry College
Cover Image by ElvinaK via VectorStock.
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John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Journal of International Affairs
A PUBLICATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND POLICY PROGRAM OF PATRICK HENRY COLLEGE
VOLUME 1, No. 2 Patrick Henry College | Purcellville, Virginia | www.phc.edu
Spring 2022
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Staff Editor-in-Chief
Research Editor
Ellen J. Fischer
James M. Hodson
Associate Editor
Editor
Valkyrie D. Armstrong
Emma J. Fenton
Publication Editor
Faculty Supervisor
Nicholas A. Storz
Michael L. Haynes, Ph.D.
About Us The Journal The John Jay Journal for International Affairs is published twice during the academic year by the Caspian Project, a student-run organization affiliated with the International Politics and Policy Program of Patrick Henry College.
John Jay John Jay was an American statesman who helped lay the foundation for America’s judicial system and foreign policy in the immediate aftermath of the War for Independence. A key diplomat in the American founding, Jay secured wartime loans to the U.S. government from Spain and was a central negotiator to the Treaty of Paris, which formally conceded the United State’s independence. He would later negotiate the infamous Jay Treaty in 1794 with mixed results. An author of several of the Federalist Papers, Jay’s contributions discuss the dangers foreign influenced posed to the fledgling republic as well as the role of each branch of government in crafting foreign policy. Later, he was appointed the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court by President Washington, strictly upholding the high court’s political neutrality during his tenure. This journal takes his name in light of these immense contributions and the guiding role he played in pioneering American foreign policy during the nation’s founding.
Copyright © 2022. All rights reserved. Papers published in the journal do not necessarily reflect the view of Patrick Henry Colleges or the Caspian Project. Any correspondence can be directed to:
Patrick Henry College 10 Patrick Henry Circle Purcellville, VA 20132 (540) 338-1776 caspianproject@phc.edu 4
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
Letter from the Editor Ellen J. Fischer
Papers 9
From Communism to Capitalism The Economy of the Czech Republic As Viewed Through Different Economic Systems Elaina Kilker An analysis of the effectiveness of the Czech Republic’s transition from Communism to Capitalism following the dissolution of Czecholsovakia in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
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Rags to Riches A Qualitative Analysis of Singapore’s Political Economy Cana Cossin A study of the factors influencing Singapore’s economic success, finding its unique blend of strategic government intervention and free trade policies is due to strong ideological unity in its citizenry, particularly for economic freedom and limited government.
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The Paradox of Africa COVID-19 and its Impact on Africa Josiah Ssempa Unraveling Africa’s low COVID-19 infection and case rate despite having meager healthcare budgets and highly limited access to lifesaving medical care. This paper also discusses theories on the origins of the COVID-19 virus.
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Is a New Red Dawn Rising? Ethnic Nationalism, Ethnic Minorities, and Foreign Aggression in Russia and China James Hodson Exploring whether the presence of legacy ethnic minorities will restrain the scope of foreign aggression in states where ethnic nationalism helps drive an increasingly belligerent foreign policy attitude in Russia and China.
Spring 2022
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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR Dear Readers, What a time it is in the world of international politics! Wars in Ukraine, Covid-19, and supply shortages are just a few of the events plaguing our media these past couple of months. We need leaders who understand the conflicts facing our world and able to adequately analyze and execute the best response. That is why I am proud to be offering a second volume of the John Jay Journal of International Affairs. It is a lot of work to bring you a journal well researched and informative on the situations facing our world today, but I am proud of our contributors and hope you walk away having learned something new.
throughout Africa. His main focus is on how Africa was able to maintain low rates of infection despite a poor healthcare system and lack of hygienic living conditions throughout the country. Possible hypotheses for this phenomenon are explored in his essay. Finally, James Hodson is the author of the last essay who hypothesizes whether a rise in ethnic nationalism in Russia and China is the reason for their growing foreign aggression. He found that in Russia this hypothesis did not hold due but it was more plausible in China. His essay is worth the read as it provides an excellent historical and current analysis of both countries on this topic.
The papers in this volume offer a broad range of topics from an analysis of Covid in Africa to the history of Czechoslovakia’s economy. Each paper offers a historical analysis of their region of topic and the institutions that shaped policies and cultures. As you work your way through the journal, most of our topics range far away from the shores of America. Africa, Europe, and Asia are the countries covered in this volume—the regions garnering the attention of the world in recent months.
A shoutout of thanks must go to my amazing team! Valkyrie Armstrong—you rock; thank you for your administrative help in seeing this volume come to fruition. Nick Storz, all those long hours of copy-editing and reformatting, goodness I cannot thank you enough. James Hodson, we appreciate your dedication and excellent attention to the research conducted throughout each essay. Emma Fenton, it was great to have your insight and work on the team as our editor this semester. Finally, thank you Dr. Haynes for letting us have another Our first essay, written by Elaina Kilker, covers opportunity to publish a journal under your the history of Czechoslovakia as it broke away supervision. from the communist control and the economies that formed as the country split into different This journal volume is dedicated to all of the regions. She analyzes the two different current and future International Politics and economies the region operated under Policy students at Patrick Henry College. Two communism and free-market capitalism. In her years of work have brought you two editions of analysis, she concludes that a capitalist a journal that I hope will be perfected and economy is more beneficial than their former continued by the students of this school. Now sit back, grab a cup of tea, and educate yourself alternative of communism rule. on the international affairs of our world. Cana Cossin takes us to Singapore to discuss the rise of their economic superpower in the God Bless, world’s eyes. She gives a qualitative breakdown Ellen Fischer of why this country to be one of the most Editor-in-Chief economic and politically stable in Asia. Her Purcellville, VA, April 2022 hypothesis is that Singapore’s success is contributed to its well-blended ideologies and economic policies. Our third essay is written by Josiah Ssempa who discusses the spread of COVID-19
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John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Spring 2022
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John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Source: Prague Morning; https://www.praguemorning.cz/confidence-in-the-czech-economy-grew-to-89-7-points/
From Communism to Capitalism: The Economy of the Czech Republic As Viewed Through Different Economic Systems Elaina Kilker
Abstract In 1989, Czechoslovakia broke away from its communist past, divided into the Czech Republic (Czechia) and Slovakia, and instituted freemarket economies. After thirty years, there are lessons that can be learned from the Czech Republic’s transformation. Did the Czech Republic benefit more from communism or capitalism? This question is explored through the measures of unemployment, GDP, and inflation throughout the communist period and the capitalist period. These measures are then contrasted with those of Slovakia. The impact of the economies on the workplace is also examined. It is concluded that a capitalist economy is more beneficial to a nation than a communist economy. _________________________________
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9
O
n November 17, 1989, a march
price
through
Prague,
convertibility; the creation and reform of financial
Czechoslovakia triggered a revolution
institutions and banking; and foreign trade and
that would alter the course of the
investment” (p. 85). This became the social market
country in a striking way. This march was in
economy (a type of free-market economy) that the
memory of a deceased Czech student at the hands
Czech
of the Germans that were occupying Czech territory
Economist Griffith-Jones (1992) indicates that
fifty years earlier. When the police responded with
“Given the unexpected nature of the revolution, the
violence at the site of the march in an attempt to
time constraints and the differences of opinion
manage the situation, the streets became overrun
within the government, the initial progress of
with outraged citizens. After a month of opposition
reform during the transitional government was
and strikes against the communist government, the
fairly impressive“ (p. 97). The research question is
government was dissolved, and another one was
did the Czech Republic benefit more economically
established with Václav Havel becoming the first
through communism or capitalism? The hypothesis
president
is the Czech Republic has benefitted more
under
the
the
streets
new
of
government
of
Czechoslovakia on December 29, 1989. This “Velvet
liberalization;
Republic
currency
currently
reform
operates
and
under.
economically from capitalism than communism.
Revolution” was a turning point in the history of Czechoslovakia. In late 1992, Czechoslovakia split
into the Czech Republic (Czechia) and Slovakia. This “Velvet Divorce” was the launching pad for the Czech Republic’s new government and economy (Fawn, 2000, pp. 26-35).
Initially, there was an economic collapse in 1991 in the Czech Republic due to the loss of exports to the Soviet bloc. However, this loss was quickly replaced
Economist Stephany Griffith-Jones (1990) provides
with exports to the European Union. Myant (2007)
context
says,
for
the
communist
government
of
Czechoslovakia to display that,
10
Literature Review
Czechoslovakia was a centrally planned economy, it broadly followed the Stalinist Soviet model, despite differences in initial levels of development; industries and services were nationalised, development of heavy industry was emphasised and trade flows were diverted from West to East. Its economic growth performance was variable, with declining trends over the past twenty years ( p. 4).
The transformation depression, similar to that in other Central East European countries (CEECs), was precipitated by a combination of the collapse in exports to the Soviet bloc and sharp deflationary policies introduced in 1991. It was followed by accelerating growth based on new private enterprise and a reorientation of exports towards Western Europe. The EU took 69% of Czech exports in 1999, compared with 18% for Czechoslovakia in 1989 (p. 432).
From 1990 to 1992, a large shift occurred in the
This access to foreign trade benefited the Czech
economy of Czechoslovakia that would carry into
Republic (Neustadt, 1997, p. 111-113). According to
the foundations of the Czech Republic. According
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, between 1990
to Fawn (2000), “These include: privatization;
and 1994, the Czech Republic had a relatively low
industrial restructuring; the restructuring of the
unemployment rate when compared to other
workforce, unemployment and labour productivity;
Eastern European nations (Gitter, 1998, p. 32).
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
The economic hardship in countries like the Czech Republic during the transition from a communist economy
to
a
capitalist
economy
was
not
uncommon.
189). An issue that the capitalist economy encountered was its inability to pay teachers a decent wage despite the overall desire of citizens to attend
In the Eastern bloc nations, it was hoped that the growth of the private sector would be rapid, despite its starting from a rather small base whose ability to absorb workers was thought to be limited. However, as a result of this constraint, in practically all of those countries, the economic transformation was accompanied by high levels of unemployment during the transitional period (Gitter, 1998, p. 31).
higher education institutions. In addition, doctors
Gitter also notes that the Czech Republic had a low
in another. With these low labour costs, the Czech
unemployment rate in comparison to the Eastern
Republic was able to compete on the global market.
Bloc countries but also in relation to the world. He
Myant (2007) says that
sought work outside of their own country due to the long hours and low wages that they received in their nation (Lieb, 2004, p. 7). In addition, Myant
points out that the labour costs were significantly lower than other countries (2007, p. 433). While this was a hardship in one way, it was an advantage
continues by saying
In 2005, with GDP at 73% of the EU average level, productivity, measured as GDP per person working, stood at 67% of the average for the 25 EU members. Labour costs measured by the exchange rate, the relevant figure for a company investing in the Czech Republic with the intention of exporting, stood at only 2025% of the EU average… Wages, the largest element in labour costs, were around half the level of those in Slovenia, about the same as those for Hungary and Poland and significantly above Slovakia (on 14%) and other post-communist accession countries (p. 433).
Indeed, in 1995, not only was the Czech unemployment rate less than that of every other former Eastern bloc nation, but it was even lower than those of the major European economies and the United States and stood second only to the Japanese unemployment rate, among the rates for 27 member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (Gitter, 1998, p. 31). Although
the
unemployment
rate
was
low,
encouraging the privatisation of the economy in certain sectors was not easy.
By devaluing Czech currency on the international
The privatization of businesses in the Czech
market, while producing a large output, and paying
Republic had a mixed effect. In some ways, it was a
low wages, the Czech government was able to
benefit for the society because not everything was
create a large demand for Czech products while
government run. On the other hand, the quick shift
keeping unemployment relatively low (Gitter, 1998,
and privatisation left an imbalanced society.
p. 33).
Citizens purchased “voucher books” and shares in businesses. This was beneficial because average
Spring 2022
citizens became involved, but it also created
Data and Methods
problems because many were not educated about
A change in economic systems does have an
what they were buying into. Investment companies
impact. It is not a neutral exchange. In order to
would take advantage of citizens who were
understand the impact of a shift in economic styles
uneducated in business by promising large returns
within the Czech Republic, there must be a
on their investments. (Svihlikova, 2011, pp. 188-
quantitative and qualitative study. A comparison of
11
the Czech Republic’s economy with the Slovakian
conclusion of this study. It is still included in the
economy after they split also provided an insightful
results section as the available data was collected
look into the success or failure of the Czech
and analyzed.
Republic’s economic transition. Additionally, the practical
application
of
the
economies
was
examined.
Results
For the quantitative measure, unemployment,
To test the hypothesis, the data was studied in
gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation were
several different ways. Both quantitative and
compared. Data was taken from both the period of
qualitative
the communist economy and the current capitalist
quantitative
economy. If the research confirms the hypothesis
unemployment rates, GDP rates, and inflation rates
that the Czech Republic has benefitted more
was
economically from capitalism than communism,
compared to those of Slovakia.
then the more recent unemployment and inflation numbers should be lower than they were under the communist economy and the GDP should rise.
were
methods,
completed.
These
used. a
Among
the
comparison
of
numbers
were
also
Unemployment Unemployment rates before and after the economic switch were used to measure the economic change.
Another measure that was useful when examining
Economist Stephany Griffith-Jones (1992) states
the success or failure of this new economy was to
that in the late 1980s, “Even though growth slowed
compare it to a country with a similar economic
down, given the nature of the economic system,
backround. For instance, when Czechoslovakia
there
split, it produced two similar countries that were
Czechoslovakia even in the 1980s” (p. 93). The
alike despite the ethnic divide. Both transitioned to
term open employment means a person is willing to
a
the
work but there are no jobs available. On the other
their
hand, disguised unemployment is when people are
outcomes, they provide valuable insight into the
employed but they are doing a job that is
success or failure of the Czech Republic's free-
significantly below their skill level so in effect they
market economy. However, it must be noted that
are not employed. Griffith-Jones specifically says,
the two countries are not a perfect comparison due
“open unemployment.” It is reasonable to conclude
to their different ethnic backgrounds and because
that there was disguised unemployment during this
of the large difference in population.
period because if there was complete employment
The qualitative methods used were a comparison of
surely some worked at a job that was below their
free-market
similarities
and
economy.
By
differences
analyzing between
accounts regarding life under the communist economy compared to how life is perceived by people under the current economy.
12
methods
This was
was
no
open
unemployment
in
individual skill levels. Due to it not being open unemployment, there is no way to quantify the rate of unemployment with the communist economy.
paired with historical analysis that takes into
Though there is no way to determine the rate of
account the historical context of the time period.
unemployment under the communist economy, it is
Due to a lack of sources and examples, this
still worth examining the unemployment rates after
measurement will not be factored into the
the switch to a capitalist economy because it
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
demonstrates the prosperity or lack of prosperity of
quarter of 2003 and wages were extremely low.
the new economy. Under the capitalist economy,
Assistant university professors’ starting pay is said
there was unemployment. In the 1990s and on into
to have been “80 percent of the mean national
the early 2000s there was a sharp increase in
wage” (Lieb, 2004, p. 7). In addition, doctors began
unemployment in the Czech Republic. Graph 1
moving out of the Czech Republic due to the low
(Trading Economics, 2021c) indicates this upward
wages and long hours. Lieb says “they might easily
unemployment turn. Written in 1992, Griffith-
make five to eight times more money while working
Jones says “Unemployment has begun to rise. By
fewer hours in Western Europe” (2004, p. 7). The
late 1990 open unemployment, at around 60,000,
Czech Republic did not have an entirely smooth
was only about 1% of the labour force, but during
transition. But, Gitter (1998) marvels at the mostly
1991 it averaged 4%” (p. 96). This number
smooth transition stating that the Czech Republic’s
continued to climb throughout the 1990s. It was
“transformation from a centrally planned economy
not until roughly 2018 (see Graph 1) that the
to a market-oriented one has been accomplished
unemployment rate in the Czech Republic dropped
with substantially lower levels of unemployment
below three percent (Trading Economics, 2021c).
Graph 1: Czech Unemployment Rate
Note: This graph only shows open unemployment. Any disguised unemployment is not reflected. (Trading Economies, 2021c). Harvard
than were seen in other Eastern European
International Review, discussed the struggles of the
nations” (p. 31). Overall, it took some time for the
new capitalist economy of the Czech Republic
capitalist economy of the Czech Republic to balance
citing
itself out, but eventually, a low unemployment rate
Doug
Lieb,
that
senior
while
editor
the
of
GDP
the
was
growing,
unemployment was over ten percent in the first
Spring 2022
was achieved.
13
In comparison, in the early 1990s, Slovakia had an open unemployment rate of approximately 14 percent. Around 2002, its unemployment rate hit an all time high of 20 percent. It was not until the late 2010s that the unemployment rate dropped below six percent, an all time low for the country (Trading Economics, 2021e). When compared to the Czech Republic’s open unemployment rate of
less than nine percent in the late 1990s, the two countries are in stark contrast.
Gross Domestic Product Gross domestic product or GDP is another way to measure the economic success of a country. The GDP had been growing steadily in Czechoslovakia leading up to the split into two nations. In 1990, two years prior to the split, the region that would become the Czech Republic had a GDP of 29.8 billion which was a slight decrease. Griffith-Jones (1992) states that
complexities associated with the economic reform. Gross domestic product is estimated to have declined by about 3.5% I n 1990 (p. 95-96). Myant (2007) asserts that This [GDP] shows the Czech Republic some way behind the advanced countries of Western Europe throughout the twentieth century. Per capita GDP was probably about 57% of the average for EU members in 1990 when compared using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (p. 432). This disparity was short lived. By 1994, the GDP of the Czech Republic was higher than it had been in 1989, showing a quick rebound of the economy (Graph 2) (Trading Economics, 2021a). As of 2019, the GDP was about five times what it was in 1994. The Czech Republic’s GDP decreased
following
the
separation
of
Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and
Slovakia. The major shift in the type of economy resulted in a major disruption in all aspects of the
Graph 2: Annual GDP, Czech Republic
Note: (Trading Economies, 2021a). economy. Despite those radical changes, the GDP At a macroeconomic level conditions worsened somewhat during 1990, mainly as a result of a deterioration in the external environment and the uncertainties and
14
bounced back and grew substantially. The GDP of Slovakia had a more smooth transition
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
than the Czech Republic. Slovakia appears to have
was a problem in the early years of the Czech
been mainly unaffected by the transition to a
Republic. Prior to the split, Czechoslovakia had
capitalist economy at least in terms of GDP. The
little
GDP remained consistent and gradually climbed
International Economics Department of the World
following the split. There was slow incremental
Bank says,
growth throughout the 1990s and early 2000s before there was significant improvements in GDP (Trading Economics, 2021d). The country did
eventually begin to grow but at a slower pace than the Czech Republic.
Inflation Inflation is a difficult economic construct to balance. Having too much significantly devalues the currency of a nation and can lead to a depression. Conversely, deflation causes prices to fall and can lead to dangerous recessions. A little inflation in the Czech Republic is to be expected and even desired considering the radical shift that occurred from one country into two and from one form of economy into another. However, inflation
inflation.
A
working
paper
from
the
But the extent to which official price indices understand inflationary pressures was not serious in Czechoslovakia, compared with other centrally planned economies. Estimates of hidden inflation for 1985-89 range from 0.5 percent to 2 percent a year in consumer markets and about 3 percent in the industrial sector. Estimates for suppressed inflation were less than 5 percent (Drabek et al., 1993, p. 2). When the Czech Republic made its transition to a capitalist economy, major inflation ensued. “In 1990, the average annual rate of inflation was 10 percent for the economy as a whole, with foodstuffs growing at a rate of 11.1 percent, durables by 10.5
percent, catering service by 8.5 percent, and other services by 7.4 percent…” (Drabek et al., 1993, p.
Graph 3: Inflation Rate, Czech Republic
Note: (Trading Economics.com, 2021b)
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15
19) People began to hoard products which caused
under the communist economy of Czechoslovakia
inflation to increase
significantly. The price
can be found, but an important note that was
increases that were still in effect caused even more
mentioned earlier is that under the communist
problems with the growing rate of inflation. Easing
economy, there was not open unemployment.
inflation was not easy. Drabek explains that
Again, open unemployment means there are people
Generally speaking, 1990 was characterized by first steps to liberalize prices and thus to release inflationary pressures - by removing subsidies and devaluations. Nevertheless, due to the institutional and economic continuation of price controls, suppressed and mainly hidden inflation still survived. It changed dramatically at the beginning of 1991 (Drabek et al., 1993, p. 20).
unlikely that everyone was in the job that suited their skills which means there could have been
disguised unemployment. Everyone was working, but because they were not working at jobs that allowed them to use their skills, it was almost as if they were not working at all.
As the price controls began to be lifted and there
In contrast, there are more recent accounts from
was more economic freedom, there was also less
life under the capitalist economy. Journalist Saša
inflation. “Following the strict fiscal and monetary
Uhlová went undercover in five of the lowest paying
policies, inflation very quickly was brought under
manual jobs in the Czech Republic over a period of
control” (Drabek et al., 1993, p. 21) By 1999, the
six months. She describes the hardships of those
rate of inflation on consumer goods was brought
working in these jobs. Detailing the trials of these
down to 2.14 percent. For the most part, the
workers, she argues that
inflation rate has remained under six percent since 1999 (WorldData, 2021a). The Czech Republic had a rocky start, but the inflation issue was resolved within a relatively short period of time. Slovakia also had a rough start with inflation rates around 9.9 percent in 1992. It jumped to 23.92 percent in 1993. Some high inflation rates filled the next couple years. By 2009, the inflation rate was
back under control. In 2014, there was even deflation (WorldData, 2021b). The inflation rates have continued to level out since then. Inflation hit the Czech Republic and Slovakia hard initially, but both have balanced out since then.
Workplace Applications
16
willing to work but no open jobs. However, it is
The Czech transformation from state socialism to capitalism is often considered a success, and today all the economic indicators suggest the country is thriving. But subjective experiences tell a different story. The individual narratives of those in need aren’t presented as systematic problems of an entire society. The achievements of the welfare state were often seen as interchangeable with communism, and trade unions were mocked as relics of the old regime. For years, collective bargaining was practically a swearword. So it became quite common for low wages to be accompanied by blatant violations of the labour code, which employees put up with for fear of speaking up. With the endless repetitions of “everyone’s out for themselves”, Czech society gave up on solidarity (Uhlová, 2018, September 19).
A comparison of real life situations and practical
She continues to explain that despite housing and
applications is also a necessary element to
food only being slightly cheaper than western
determine
has
Europe, a German or Austrian “shop clerk” still
benefitted more under the communist economy or
makes three times more than a Czech shop clerk.
the capitalist economy. Not many accounts of life
Many do not make a living wage and some work 12-
whether
the
Czech
Republic
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
17 hours a day to support their families (Uhlová,
certainty. With that said, based on the numbers
2018, September 19). There are struggles with the
shown in Graph 1, there was a lower rate of
capitalist economy. The examples of how the
unemployment under the communist economy
change in economy has affected the lives of the
than there currently is with the capitalist economy.
working class is a difficult comparison without enough data points. With what examples are available from the capitalist economy, it can be concluded that there are problems with this
economic system. But, there are always problems. It is not possible to have a perfect economy. There
The contrast between the gross domestic product before the change in economy and after is a stark contrast. The GDP in 2020 was nearly five times higher than the GDP in 1990. That is a significant
improvement.
were problems with the communist economy as
Measurement of inflation is distinct from that of
well. However, it is not a fair assessment because
unemployment or GDP. This is because a good
there is not enough information for either data
measurement of inflation is not the lowest number
points to compare them. This measurement is not
possible or the highest. The best rate of inflation is
factored into the conclusion.
as close to zero but not all the way there. Overall,
The
results
quantitative
of
this
and
quantitative
study
combined
both
qualitative
methods.
The
methods
explored
how
the rate of inflation has gone down significantly over a stretch of time, and it is hovering around three percent.
unemployment, GDP, and inflation all play into the
When Czechoslovakia split in late 1992, it produced
economic success or failure of a nation. Plus, they
two very similar countries. Both transitioned to a
were contrasted to the rates of Slovakia. This data
capitalist economy. Though they were incredibly
shows which kind of economy is most effective for a
similar from the beginning, they had different
nation.
outcomes. For instance, early on the Czech Republic had a comparably low unemployment rate while Slovakia’s soared to 20 percent. In terms of
Conclusion The
GDP, both countries had a slow start, but they both
examination
of
economic
success
is
complicated and multi-layered. This research dives into three core economic measures to determine success or failure, unemployment, gross domestic product,
and
inflation.
Secondly,
it
uses
a
comparison of case studies from a different but
a harder time managing inflation. They have significantly more large changes in inflation rates than the Czech Republic. The two countries have remained somewhat similar in many aspects including economically.
similar country. An analysis of all of these aspects
When comparing the communist economy of the
shows whether a communist economy is more
Czech Republic to the capitalist economy, it can be
beneficial than a capitalist one.
concluded that the capitalist economy was more
In the case of unemployment, while it is likely that disguised unemployment occurred before under the communist economy, it cannot be said with
Spring 2022
improved significantly. Since the split, Slovakia has
beneficial for the country as a whole. First, Graph 1 ultimately shows a lower unemployment rate with
the communist economy; however, by giving people the freedom to decide what is best for them
17
in terms of employment opportunities, there is less potential for disguised unemployment. Second, the gross domestic product rate has soared since the switch in economies. Third, inflation has been reduced, and it has stayed right around three percent. Lastly, when compared to Slovakia, the Czech Republic has produced better economic results overall. This is an important finding because
there has been a recent hard push towards communist and socialist ideas in economics and government.
By
showing
that
a
communist
economy does not produce favorable results in comparison to a capitalist economy, at least in this one particular case, it begs the question: is this the case for other countries as well? Will a capitalist economy always come out on top when compared to a communist system? If that is the case, it may
Fawn, R. (2000). The Czech Republic: A nation of velvet. Amsterdam, Netherlands: The Gordon and Breach Publishing Group. Gitter, R.J., Scheuer, M. (1998). Low unemployment in the Czech Republic: ‘miracle’ or ‘mirage’?. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Monthly Labor Review, 8, 3137. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1998/08/ art3full.pdf. Griffith-Jones, S. (1990). Czechoslovakia’s economic reforms; how can the EC best help sustain them? Institute of Development Studies. https:// www.stephanygj.net/papers/ CzechEcono micReforms HowCan ECSustainThem1990.pdf. Griffith-Jones, S., & Stevens, C. (Ed.), & Kennan, J., (Ed.). (1992). Reform in eastern Europe and the developing country dimension: Czechoslovakia. Overseas Development Institute. 92-100 https://stephanygj.net/ papers/TheChangesinEastern% 20EuropeCzechoslovakia1992.pdf.
cause some to rethink what they believe is best for
the United States of America. Also, if communism is so beneficial, why did both the Czech Republic and Slovakia abandon communist principles in favor of capitalist ones? These are questions to be explored at a later date.
Lieb, D. (2004). Czech minus: Grading the Republic’s economy. Harvard International Review, 26(2), 7-8. http://www.jstor.org/stable/42762930. Myant, M. (2007). Economic transformation in the Czech Republic: A Qualified Success. EuropeAsia Studies, 59(3), 431–450. http:// www.jstor.org/stable/20451362.
If further research were to be done related to this topic,
an
examination
into
the
economic
transformations of other Eastern Bloc countries could be useful. Also, non-secondary research into
the effects that the economy has on workers would be valuable. This is a study that could be done with many other countries to determine what is the most
Svihlikova, I. (2011). The Czech Republic: Neoliberal reform and economic crisis. In G. Dale (Ed.), First the transition, then the crash: Eastern Europe in the 2000s (pp. 187-202). Pluto Press.
beneficial economic system overall.
Trading Economics. (2021). Czech Republic GDP. https://tradingeconomics.com/ czech-republic/gdp
References
Trading Economics. (2021). Czech Republic inflation rate. https:// tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/ inflation-cpi
Drabek, Z., Janacek, K., & Tuma, Z. (1993). Inflation in Czechoslovakia 1985-91. International Economics Department of The World Bank. https:// documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/56 5961468771718752/pdf/ multi0page.pdf
18
Neustadt, A. (1997). External economic relations of the Czech Republic. Perspectives, 8, 95–113. http://www.jstor.org/stable/44732829.
Trading Economics. (2021). Czech Republic unemployment rate. https:// tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/ unemployment-rate
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Trading Economics. (2021). Slovakia GDP. https:// tradingeconomics.com/slovakia/gdp Trading Economics. (2021). Slovakia unemployment rate. https:// tradingeconomics.com/slovakia/ unemployment-rate Uhlová, S. (2018, September 19). If the Czech economy is thriving, why are we so poor? The Guardian. https:// www.theguardian.com/ commentisfree/2018/sep/19/ czech- republictransition-state-socialism- capitalism WorldData. (2021). Development of inflation rates in Czechia. https://www. worlddata.info/europe/czechia/inflationrates.php WorldData. (2021). Development of inflation rates in Slovakia. https://www. worlddata.info/europe/slovakia/inflationrates.php
Spring 2022
19
20
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Source: Port Technology; https://www.porttechnology.org/news/singapore-tops-maritime-hub-index-for-seventh-year-in-a-row/
Rags to Riches A Qualitative Analysis of Singapore’s Political Economy Cana Cossin
Abstract
Over the past 50 years, the country of Singapore has developed from a low-income country to one of the world’s economic superpowers. Its GDP rates have been among the highest in the world for the past 25 years, and it currently has the highest GDP per capita in all of Asia. It is also one of the most politically stable countries in the world. This study performs a qualitative analysis of Singapore’s major economic policies, exploring how the political economy of Singapore has affected its economic growth and political stability. This study hypothesizes that the primary cause of Singapore’s economic success is its free trade policies and strategic government intervention. This study found that Singapore’s historical adherence to a blend of liberal and socialdemocracy ideology has allowed both its policymakers and citizens to embrace free trade policies and advance limited but strategic government intervention. This has culminated in the political stability and economic success that Singapore enjoys today. _________________________________
Spring 2022
21
O countries
ver the past 50 years, within just a single generation, the countries of Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Indonesia moved from third-world to
economic
superpowers,
a
transformation that economists call the “East Asian Miracle.” The county of Singapore is particularly interesting because despite only occupying 240
square miles, it has developed into one of the best economies in the world. In addition to its economic prowess, the country has one of the world's most stable and effective political systems. This paper explores the political economy of the country of Singapore in order to understand how the country has developed into the economic and political superpower that it is today.
institutions.” While there is widespread consensus among scholars as to the definition of political economy, there is disagreement as to how best to analyze the interaction between the economy and politics. Some scholars believe that a study of political economy is best performed using quantitative analysis and rigid mathematical formulas that
apply the basic laws of microeconomics and macroeconomics to various governments. This is an approach that has gained popularity in the past fifty years and is more often used by think tanks and research colleges who have the resources to gather large amounts of data rather than individual researchers. The Quantitative Political Economy Research Group (QPE), based in the United Kingdom, is the most well-known group to use a quantitative approach to analyzing the political
Literature Review
economy (King’s College London, 2022).
The phrase “political economy” was first used by French economist Antione de Montchrétien in 1615 in
his
“Treatise
on
the
Political
Economy” (Lunghini, 1998). By combining the two words, Montchrétien reflected the prevailing belief that understanding political factors were crucial to determining economic outcomes and economic policymaking (Princeton, 2022). While the modern use of the phrase “political economy” incorporates this historical meaning by studying the interaction between politics and economic outcomes, it is largely defined by its use of the formal and technical tools of economic analysis. This technique incorporates
22
mathematical
modeling
and
Others believe that a country’s political economy can be best understood by analyzing the theoretical tradition preceding and undergirding the current political climate. One widely accepted scholar who uses this approach is business analyst Paul Adler. He lays out three distinct theoretical traditions that have woven their way into a modern economic theory which can be called the class-based
tradition, the institutionalist tradition, and the rational choice tradition. He traces which of the three traditions a country developed out of, then analyzes the current
economic and
political
institutions in light of that history (Adler, 2009).
conceptualization of optimal action, incentives, and
A third approach, known as the New Political
constraints to understand phenomena and current
Economy approach, blends the historical and
trends
Barry
mathematical elements and merges them with a
Weingast and Donald Wittman (2011) sum it up as
third element—ideology. Research professor and
studying how “the methodology of economics
economist Charles S. Maier (1987) writes that a
applie[s] to the analysis of political behavior and
political economy approach "interrogates economic
(Princeton,
2022).
Economists
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
doctrines to disclose their sociological and political premises [...] in sum, [it] regards economic ideas and behavior not as frameworks for analysis, but as beliefs and actions that must themselves be explained” (pp. 4-6). This approach accounts for the idea that value judgments are inherent in the study of economics. Economists Robert Carson et al. (2015) encapsulate this idea when they write,
“Economics, as a study of human behavior, cannot avoid value judgments. Struggle as it may, economics as a discipline is never free from
Data and Methods This paper uses qualitative analysis to analyze the political economy of Singapore. It uses data collected from the government of Singapore and the U.S. Census Bureau to analyze the Singapore economy. It looks specifically at the legislation and political culture of the country over the past fifty years
to
determine
how
the
government's
intervention and culture of political freedom have impacted Singapore.
ideology” (p. 6). This paper uses this New Political Economy
approach
to
analyze
Singapore’s
economic system. Barry Carson identifies four core ideologies from which all economic systems stem: liberalism, social democracy, communism, and mercantilism. The Singapore system is a blend of the first two systems—liberalism and social democracy. The liberal position, which originated with Adam Smith in the late 18th century, is anchored in the two basic philosophic ideas that men were rational beings and that they had a natural right to obtain and protect their private property (Barry, 2015). This system promotes the free market, advocating for very limited government intervention. The second position, social democracy, contends that
the market needs government intervention to protect labor and social welfare provisions. While the liberal dogma spans a wide spectrum of opinions, it boils down to a rejection of the idea that the market is self-regulating and instead claims that government intervention is essential for
Research When
looking
at
the
political
economy
of
Singapore, it is critical first to examine the country’s history to see how the current institutions came to power and the cultural history of its
citizens. The island of Singapore is believed to have been inhabited since 1000 AD. For the next several centuries, eastern countries fought for control over the island until the Europeans gradually took it over between the 16th and 19th centuries. In 1819, British Statesman and Lieutenant Governor of the East Indies, Sir Stamford Raffles, signed a treaty with India, making the small island of onethousand inhabitants a British colony and trading post (Lepoer, 1989). For decades the British colony
thrived as a transmission port for entrepôt or reexport trade. This meant that the island was equipped with ports, storage facilities, and other infrastructure to house large quantities of British goods before they were re-exported (Yap, 2005).
a secure economy. The social democracy position
In 1942, during the middle of World War II, the
contends that “The economy simply requires
Japanese conquered the island of Singapore. When
pragmatic adjustments from time to time to
the Japanese later surrendered to the Allies in
maintain overall balance and to protect particular
1945,
elements in the society” (Barry, 2015).
However, the people of Singapore no longer had
British
troops
reoccupied
the
island.
faith in Britain to defend them from external
Spring 2022
23
threats. This led to a political awakening amongst
on freedom of trade, venture capitalism, and
the people of Singapore and the rise of anti-colonial
incentives requiring people to secure their own
and nationalist sentiments (Lepoer, 1989). In
economic freedom rather than relying upon the
response, Britain began to grant Singapore greater
state.
independence and self-governance. During this time, Singapore’s key political party –the People’s Action Party (PAP) was created. Today, Singapore remains a single-party system, meaning that the
PAP is the nation’s only significant political party. Upon a unanimous vote by the Parliament of Malaysia in 1965, Singapore was expelled from the federation, and the state we see today—The Republic
of
Singapore—came
into
existence
(Lepoer, 1989).
began to work with policymakers to set up an incentive structure that would encourage foreign top-tier venture capital firms to set up operations
in Singapore (Klingler-Vidra, 2018). The incentive structure was primarily composed of tax incentives and decreased regulations. On the regulatory front, Singapore
allowed
companies
to
set
up
corporations within Singapore’s borders without rebranding—a
process
that
companies
often
Singapore’s merging of the liberal and social
require before a corporation can move to their
democracy ideologies has kept the country from
borders (Lepoer, 1989). They also began offering
retreating
state
tax incentives for these businesses and their
involvement in the economy (Chong, 2007). This is
investors, including tax deductions up to 100
particularly noticeable in the actions of legislatures
percent
during the first few decades of the country’s
investment. They hoped that the incentives would
existence.
bring venture capital managers into Singapore,
from
the
During
policymakers
began
development
the
1980s
intensely
of
and
1990s,
studying
the
of
equity
invested
on
losses
from
encouraging natural-born Singapore citizens to
economic practices of surrounding countries. Tony
build
Tan, former deputy prime minister and president
international businesses and setting up their own
of Singapore, established a Ministerial Committee
venture capital firms (Klingler-Vidra, 2018).
in the early 1990s to research surrounding economies and implement successful policies in
Singapore. In Tan’s words, “The committee's explicit
aim
was
precisely
‘to
encourage
entrepreneurs to commercialize technology to develop another Silicon Valley or Taiwan’” (as cited in Klingler-Vidra, 2018, p. 97). The committee was comprised of twenty-one members. Each of these members made numerous trips “to countries and clusters deemed to have succeeded in this regard, including . . . ‘Israel, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Germany, and Switzerland’” (Kilingler-
Vidra, 2018, p. 97). The committee members realized that successful economies place emphasis
24
In response to their findings abroad, the committee
their
equity
by
investing
in
existing
In addition to these changes on the international front, policymakers in Singapore also developed
programs
for
Singapore
citizens
aimed
at
promoting fiscal conservatism, self-reliance, and a strong work ethic. The most notable of these programs is the Central Provident Fund (CPF), an adaptation
of
the
American
social
security
program. Under the CPF, every working Singapore citizen opens a compulsory savings account to which both employers and individuals contribute (Klingler-Vidra, 2018). Each year approximately 37% of an individual’s earnings go into the account, which is guaranteed a return of over 2.5%. Contributions are tax-exempt at the time of deposit
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
and withdrawal. The funds are distributed into
approach to housing. In February of 1960, the
three accounts for an individual to draw from: the
Singapore government established the Housing
ordinary account (for housing needs), the Medisave
and Development Board (HDB) in order to solve
account (for healthcare needs), and the special
the housing scarcity crisis. At the time, the
account (for day-to-day retirement expenses). As of
government “was faced with a largely immigrant
2015, the total amount in these savings accounts
and
was 73% of the country’s GDP—approximately 222
shortage, and insufficient private-sector resources
billion USD (Housing and Development Board,
and capacity to provide adequate solutions” (Phang
2022).
& Helble, 2015, p. 5). The HDB was set up “as a
Notably absent from the Singapore political system is any Beveridgean tax-based welfare system or Bismarckian
contributory
social
insurance—
meaning that welfare is extremely limited, and the government does not provide healthcare. The Singapore government criticizes the high welfare spending that is typical of the Western world. The policymakers of Singapore believe that welfare entitlements undermine family responsibilities and work ethics. In the words of former Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, “when people get handouts, whether or not they work harder or better, everybody then works less…it is when people are encouraged to excel by being able to keep a large part of the extra reward earned by their extra efforts that the society as a whole becomes wealthier, and everyone thrives and prospers” (BLAS, 2020). While the Singapore
government is not completely devoid of a welfare system, the state's welfare is almost solely confined
growing
population,
a
chronic
housing
statutory board to provide ‘decent homes equipped with modern amenities for those that needed them’ ” (Teh, 1975, as cited in Phang & Helble, 2015, p. 8). During its first ten years, the HDB built 110,000 housing units. These units were to be sold to citizens on a 99-year basis. When the citizen died or moved out, the unit would then be bought back by the HDB (Housing and Development Board, 2022). In the late 1960s, the government expanded
the program to let citizens use their CPF savings for their HDB homes. Over the next four decades, HDB housing “displaced private housing as low-density shophouses, squatter settlements, and villages were acquired by the government and demolished to make way for high-rise flats” (Housing and Development Board, 2022). Today the program is open to all Singapore citizens and permanent residents. As of 2021, approximately 80% of individuals in Singapore live in HDB housing (Housing and Development Board, 2022).
to the elderly. Government welfare is the last resort. People must exhaust all their resources and then turn to their families and communities before coming to the government for aid. As of 2019, only
The
3% of Singapore citizens received any sort of
government since its independence in 1965 have
government aid, a striking contrast to the United
been pivotal in shaping the country’s national
States, where over 20% of the population receives
identity and culture. Both government officials and
government aid (U.S. Census, 2022 & Housing and
policy analysts believe that the people of Singapore
Development Board, 2022).
have
Another key element of Singapore’s economy is its
Spring 2022
Conclusion policies
more
implemented
trust
in
the
by
the Singapore
country’s
political
institutions because of these policies. (Barry, 2015).
25
The country’s culture of political freedom and the
Drazen, Allan. Political economy. In Political
government policies which promote a beneficial
economy in macroeconomics (pp. 3-19).
interaction
Princeton University Press. https://
between
the
citizenry
and
the
government has made Singapore one of the most
assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/
successful countries in the world in just a manner
s6819.pdf
of decades
Housing and Development Board. (2022, March 20). Singapore Government Agency
References Adler, P. (2009, December 29). Political economy. Marshall School of Business—University of Southern California. https:// www.marshall.usc.edu/sites/default/files/ padler/intellcont/Political%20Economy1.pdf. Barry, C. (2015). Economic Issues Today: Alternative Approaches. Internet Archive.
https://archive.org/details/ economicissuesto0000cars_r6m6/page/6/ mode/2up. BLAS. (2020, March 17). The Rabbit Hole: The Wit and Wisdom of Lee Kuan Yew. https:// blas.com/the-wit-and-wisdom-of-lky/. Carson, R. B., Thomas, W. L., & Hecht, J. (2015). Economic issues today: Alternative approaches. M. E. Sharpe, Inc. https://
archive.org/details/ economicissuesto0000cars_r6m6/page/6/ mode/2up. Chong, A. (2007, December). Singapore's political economy, 1997–2007: Strategizing economic assurance for globalization. Asian Survey, 47(6), 952-
Website. https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/
infoweb/about-us. King’s College London. (2022, March 20). Quantitative Political Economy Research Group. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/ quantitative-political-economy-researchgroup Klingler-Vidra, R. (2018). Venture capital state: The Silicon Valley Model in East Asia. Cornell Studies in Political Economy.
London, Cornell University Press. Lepoer, B. L. (Ed.). (1989). Singapore: A country study. GPO for the Library of Congress. http://countrystudies.us/singapore/. Lunghini, G. (1998). Political economy and economics. In H. D. Kurz & N. Salvadori (Eds.), The Elgar companion to classical economics. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. https://www.researchgate.net/
publication/303372284_Political_Econom y_and_Economics. Maier, C. (1987). In search of stability: Explorations in historical political economy. Cambridge University Press. Phang, S. Y. and Helble, M. (2016, March).
976. https://www.jstor.org/
Housing policies in Singapore. (ADBI
stable/10.1525/as.2007.47.6.952?seq=6
Working Paper 559). https:// papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?
abstract_id=2753487.
26
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
U.S. Census Bureau. (2021, November 22). Public assistance data within program income and public assistance. U.S. Census. https:// www.census.gov/topics/incomepoverty/public-assistance/data.html. Weingast, B. R. and Wittman, D. A. (2011, July). Overview of political economy: The reach of political economy. In R. E. Goodin (Ed.),
The Oxford Handbook of Political Science. Oxford University Press. https:// www.oxfordhandbooks.com/ view/10.1093/ oxfordhb/9780199604456.001.0001/ oxfordhb-9780199604456-e-038. Yap, O. F. (2005). Political economy, citizen power, and the ’Asian Miracle’: Reassessing the dynamics. Lynne Rienner
Publishers, Inc.
Spring 2022
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28
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Source: DownToEarth; https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/africa/why-other-african-countries-need-to-guard-against-south-africa-covid-19-variant-75327
The Paradox of Africa COVID-19 and its Impact on Africa Josiah Ssempa
Abstract This paper seeks to shed light on the virus that has consumed the world's undivided attention for the past three years. This paper is divided into two parts. In the first section, we explore the nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), delving into its virology and hypotheses for its origins. Special attention is given to the hypothesis that coronavirus leaked from a lab as well as the consequent reaction to this hypothesis. The paper then turns to Africa and examines what many scientists have labeled as a “paradox.” This “paradox” refers to the official low infection rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that Africa boasts, despite challenges such as underfunded healthcare systems, crowded slums, and absence of running water in many areas. Possible hypotheses for this phenomenon are explored and assessed.
_________________________________
Spring 2022
29
T
hose who observe history often claim that it repeats itself. The outbreak of the deadly
SARS-CoV-2
virus
initially
appeared to be exactly that—another
occurrence of a deadly disease that riddles the globe. This virus differed, however, in its global context. There have been other deadly viruses that have plagued Europe, America, Africa, and the
world. What truly sets the COVID-19 pandemic apart is that this virus not only broke through the western conceptual barrier of being a “nebulousdisease-in-a-foreign-country,” but it drastically affected the way that people live their lives, not
COVID-19 and Africa After having thoroughly discussed the virology, background, and various hypotheses and ensuing responses to the origins of the COVID-19 virus, we return now to the second largest continent in the world in both size and population (Worldometer, n.d.). Africa’s battle with COVID-19, specifically the COVID-19 statistics from the continent, reveals a confounding contradiction. How is it that this bevy of so-called “third-world countries” known as Africa is bearing the burden of Covid-19 better than more technologically advanced countries?
only in the West but in the world. From mask mandates and vaccines in some regions to bans on religious, social, and cultural gatherings in others, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has incredibly altered the
Africa is Dealing With COVID-19 Better Than Other Countries
way life across the globe. Today, many worldwide,
“I cannot stay home from work. If I do not sell my
especially in the West, clamor to return to the
fish, I do not have money to feed my children and
halcyon days before the virus, before masks became
then we will all die.” The words of a Côte d’Ivoire
new limbs attached to our bodies, and when
woman who sells dried fish in her local market
quarantines were a snippet of the past. This paper
illustrates the specter that COVID-19 casts over the
explores the phenomenon of coronavirus at large
health and well-being of Africa (Boone, 2020). This
and then turns to examine why Africa—regarded by
section of the paper explores Africa’s interaction
many as a “backward continent”— is faring better
with COVID-19 analyzing widely debated reasons
than its western counterparts.
for supposed lower COVID-19 rates in Africa, how
COVID-19 occurred against a unique backdrop
never before seen in any other global pandemic. This backdrop was the expansion of the internet.
underreporting affects the COVID-19 comparison between Africa and the West and assesses the
economic and physical impact of COVID-19.
The internet-connected millions to the quandaries of those halfway across the world gave people an eye into the lockdowns that numerous countries
30
Background in Africa:
enforced and constantly informed one another
An understanding of Africa’s puzzling skirmish
about the seemingly unending restrictions. Thanks
with COVID-19 requires a basic understanding of
to the internet, the crippling loneliness many faced
the current state of African society. In early 2020,
within the confines of their homes and the barrage
Bronwyn Bruton (2020), a senior fellow at the
of information Twitter and Instagram peppered
Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, questioned what
online, no other pandemic in history has been as
COVID-19 meant for Africa; noting the upper-class
far-reaching and as interconnected as COVID-19.
would likely adapt to the virtual lifestyle but
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
forecasted strife for the middle and lower classes.
Interruptions to this cycle result in damage to their
Conditions in Africa
ability to feed themselves and their families. For
Bruton (2020) notes that basic elements of COVID-
many such as the Côte d’Ivoire fish-seller and
19
frequent
Eunice, the stoppage of work that the specter of
handwashing and social distancing are unworkable
COVID-19 stirs up, rather than the actual virus,
for the majority of Africans. This assessment is
may very well prove fatal (Agaba, 2020; Goldbaum
accurate. The Borgen Project reports that while
& Silva, 2021).
preventative
actions
such
as
around one billion people live in slums around the
Spring 2022
to their ability to make it to town centers and work.
globe worldwide. 200 million of those live in
Official numbers indicate lower
overcrowded sub-Saharan African slums where
rates
access to phone service is easier than access to
When the threat of COVID-19 emerged in 2019,
electricity and plumbing (Thelwell, 2020; Parke,
public health experts portended drastic health
2016).
ramifications for Africa. Three years later, however,
The Water Systems Analysis Group at the Institute
these predictions appear flawed and misguided.
for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space at the
The Africa Center for Controlled Disease Center
University of New Hampshire concludes that
COVID-19 Dashboard indicates that the total
roughly 64 percent of Africans rely on water that is
number of cases in Africa sit at 11,064,898 million
limited and highly variable (Vörösmarty et al.,
cases as of February 15, 2022 (Africa CDC, 2021).
2005).
Nations
This statistic is encompassed within Africa's 1.2
Environment Program (2014) underscores the
billion population giving the continent a COVID-19
severity of the water crisis facing Africa, projecting
case rate of roughly 4.29% (World Bank, n.d.).
Furthermore,
the
United
that by 2025 nearly half of the African continent is
The rate for African COVID-19 cases is incredibly
expected to suffer from a combination of increased
low when contrasted against other continents.
water scarcity and water stress. Water stress refers
According to The New York Times COVID-19 case
to economic, social, or environmental problems
count tool, per February 15th, The United States
caused by unmet water needs. Lack of supply is
had roughly 78.1 million COVID-19 cases (The New
often caused
by contamination, drought, or
York Times, 2020). This statistic is contained
disruption in distribution (Council on Foreign
within a U.S. population of 329.5 million people,
Relations,
basic
putting the COVID-19 rate in the U.S. at 23.7%
amenities fester in a continent cloaked in extreme
(World Bank, n.d.). Reuters reports that Europe –
poverty.
with current United Nations estimates pinpointing
2006).
These
obstacles
to
The World Bank Blogs notes that 85% of Africans
the population at 748 million people - bears the
live on less than $5.50 a day (Aguilar, 2019). In
largest global weight of 146,956,000 reported
Uganda's landlocked East African country, most of
infections and 2,041,000 reported deaths (Bhatia
its residents, such as Eunice Nabifo, a mother of
et al., 2022).
three who lives in a suburb of Kampala, the
This statistic would give Europe a rate of 19.64%.
nation’s capital, live hand-to-mouth (Agaba, 2020).
Australia has a rate of 10.13% having 2,609,599
Like Eunice, many Ugandan’s livelihoods are tied
infections and 4,732 coronavirus-related deaths
31
reported in the country since the pandemic began (Bhatia et al., 2022). Asia and the Middle East maintain a rate of 2.4%, with a minimum of 109,792,000
overall
reported
infections
and
1,325,000 reported deaths caused by coronavirus (Bhatia et al., 2022). There are 63,203,000 reported infections and 1,628,000 reported deaths caused by the novel coronavirus in Latin America
and the Caribbean present a 9.68% rate due to its 652.28 million population (Bhatia et al., 2022). Ultimately, when categorized by the lowest number of total cases by region, the order follows: Australia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, United States, Asia, Europe and the Middle East (see Figure 1.1).
Why is COVID-19 not affecting Africa: Possible theories why these numbers are lower The mystery of ostensibly low COVID-19 rates in Africa has baffled scientists and public health experts since 2019. The official statistics establish that Africa bears lower COVID-19 rates than all other regions except Australia, these statistics beg the question, why does Africa appear to possess an apparent advantage when it comes to mitigating the COVID-19 virus? Wafaa El-Sadr, chair of global health at Columbia University, remarked to ABC News late last year, “Africa doesn’t have the vaccines and the resources to fight COVID-19 that
Graph 1
Note: (Figure 1.1) (Data compiled from Reuters World Coronavirus Tracker, NYT Coronavirus Tracker, and Africa CDC)
32
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
they have in Europe and the U.S., but somehow
on younger audiences, with older individuals at
they seem to be doing better” (Cheng & Mutsaka,
heightened risk of death and infection. Africa’s
2021).
young populations have been cited as reasons for
There have been a variety of reasons reported for Africa’s minor increment in infections. The most popular recurring reasons range from an unproven theory on sunlight, the young median age of Africans,
and
the
African
government’s
collaboration and swift preventative responses. We now explore these reasons in turn.
COVID-19 rates is the temperate climate. A study conducted by researchers from the University of Maryland's Institute of Human Virology discovered a link between temperature, humidity, latitude, and the spread of COVID-19 (Sajadi et al., 2020). Africa
is a varying amalgamation of various climates, ranging from the equatorial climate to the tropical wet and dry climate (Encyclopædia Britannica, n.d.). The continent is mostly located in the intertropical zone between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, which is why the high humidity density. Africa has the hottest extended region all year with the hottest summer climate and the duration
(Encyclopædia
Britannica, n.d.). While it is likely that these factors may have contributed to the spread of COVID-19, proponents of this theory tend to credit Africa as “lucky” and discount the other responses the African government levied against COVID-19.
Spring 2022
lower COVID-19 rates, as the science behind the susceptibility of the elderly has been proven (Adams et al., 2021).
Swift Governmental Response low rates is the swift responses of the African
Some advocate that the reason for Africa’s low
sunshine
certain component in the calculus of why Africa has
Another reason that has been posited for Africa’s
Africa’s Climate
longest
the lower rates in the country. This reason is a
nations to address the COVID-19 crisis. African nations such as Zambia, Congo, and Nigeria are no strangers to dealing with infectious diseases. When Ebola hit Africa in early 2013, most African countries had to become proficient in protecting their populations against a virus that was far more
deadly than SARS-CoV-2 (Kortepeter, 2020). Ebola has a fatality rate of 40-60%, while COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 4% (Kortepeter, 2020). While statistically, the contagiousness of COVID-19 has facilitated the loss of more people than Ebola, the fatality of Ebola was a grave concern African countries had to handle. Their continent-wide response
to
this
zika
virus
impeded
the
proliferation of Ebola abroad. Their expertise in dealing with infectious diseases was well utilized
and provided a baseline for their treatment of COVID-19.
African
governments
also
acted
collaboratively and decisively to quickly shut down their borders, with the bulk of African nations enacting highly stringent COVID-19 guidelines
Africa’s Young Median Age
(Wetzel, 2020). Kenya, for example, restricted in-
Africa boasts the youngest population in the world,
person meetings to curb the spread of COVID-19
with a median age of 19 (United Nations
(Obulutsa,
Development Programme, 2017). The continent is
gatherings also due to COVID-19 (Crisis 24, 2020).
also home to the ten youngest populations in the
Ultimately, the measures African governments
world. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has minimal effects
implemented were swift and stringent.
2021).
Egypt
banned
Ramadan
33
home to three of the strongest economies in Africa—have testing rates that are far lower than
Underreporting
their western counterparts. South Africa has
When the dwindling COVID-19 rates are raised,
conducted 54,224 tests per million people, while
observers will often refer to the developing nature
Egypt has conducted 1,317 tests per million people,
of Africa, pointing to less-advanced medical
and Nigeria has conducted 1,504 tests per million
infrastructure and the lack of COVID-19 testing.
people (Chitungo et al., 2020).
These
two
points
undergird
their
main
counterpoint that the official statistics of the African CDC and other agencies arrive at are inaccurate due to the inability of Africans to get tested. Evidence indicates that the official COVID19 infection rates are higher in some places than the official statistics note. A 2021 WHO study found credible evidence to believe that the COVID19 rates that official statistics bore out only captured one out of every seven infections in Africa (World Health Organization, 2021). However, the
veracity of such studies is dubious given the varying nature of each country’s response to COVID-19 and the generalizations that the studies utilize in taking
testing in other continents. The UK has conducted some 266, 500 tests among European countries per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). In Asia, Iran has conducted 31,360 tests per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). The USA has conducted 195,072 tests per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). In South America, Peru has conducted 77,178 tests per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). Ultimately, this data implies that the Africa CDC head John Nkengasong (2020) explicitly recognized that the official infection count is likely to be an underestimate.
and
The official Africa COVID-19 infection numbers
extrapolating these to all 54 African countries.
from the Africa Center for Controlled Disease
Nonetheless, the objection that underreporting is a
Center COVID-19 Dashboard report that Africa's
phenomenon that affects the official COVID-19
total cases sit at roughly 11 million cases as of
rates is a legitimate concern that we will now
February 2022 (Africa CDC, 2022). If we were to
address.
accept and apply the WHO analysis to this data—
“population
studies”
in
one
country
When examining the official statistics released for COVID-19, it is important to consider that the bedrock of those statistics—the confirmed cases— is contingent on how many people that region has tested. Thus, for precise data, mass testing is essential. According to the Africa CDC, Africa has set a testing target of 8000 tests per million population (Africa CDC, 2020). This adds up to low testing rates for the African continent. Researchers from
the
University
of
Zimbabwe
and
the
University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban, South Africa, note that South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria—
34
These numbers are diminutive compared to the
despite concerns regarding its veracity— the
number of infections within Africa is still less than in any other nation besides Australia. Applying the WHO analysis to pertinent data, Africa sits at roughly 60 million transmissions of the SARS-CoV2
virus
(World
Health
Organization
2021).
Elements that would go towards advancing this hypothesis are the crowded nature of the slums in Africa, the lack of running water, and the low vaccination
rate
within
Africa.
Furthermore,
advocates of this theory point to how testing occurs in
symptomatic
people,
but
asymptomatic
individuals spread the virus and drive up the rate of
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
transmissions (The Economist, 2020). However,
substantially mitigate the strife that many suffer.
Africa’s failures with testing are not entirely their
For Eunice, her family had no other food and is
burden, and there have been extenuating limiting
solely reliant on the maize flour.
factors inhibiting their ability to produce tests.
“‘I boil water, and when it is ready I add maize flour to make porridge. That is what we eat for breakfast and supper,’ said the single mother, clutching her youngest child, a toddler, close to her chest. ‘There are about three kilograms left in the bag. So I don’t know what will happen after.’ ‘We are going to die of hunger before this virus even kills us,’ she added” (Agaba, 2020).
Africa’s Struggles with Testing Africa is no stranger to infectious diseases. The continent has battled and addressed deadly
diseases like Ebola and tuberculosis. Despite African countries leveraging their prior expertise with testing for pathogens such as HIV and malaria into proficiency for SARS-CoV-2 testing, testing requires
specific
diagnostic
materials.
The
challenge Africa faces is that these materials—such as
specific
reagents—are
unavailable
despite
African nations having the funds. As Kavanagh et al. (2020) detailed in The Lancet, as the demand for the components used to make tests has
increased, richer and more powerful countries have pushed African countries out of the market to add to their own stockpiles despite African countries having the funds to buy ingredients. Nkengasong (2020) laments that lack of access to diagnostics is “Africa’s Achilles heel” and that it is in the interests of wealthier countries to reserve some fraction of these supplies for export as it would cut their own risk that the disease will be reintroduced.
The Ugandan government’s food distribution was a measure being taken in lockstep with Uganda’s stringent COVID-19 policies. Under the regime of incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, from 20202022,
drastic
preventative
measures
were
instituted. From March 18, 2020 onwards, all Ugandan educational institutions were closed, and all social, political, and cultural gatherings were suspended indefinitely; all this occurring before the country had yet to register a single coronavirus case (Museveni, 2020). These restrictions were difficult for people like Eunice, but she was not the only one. According to the World Food Program, the United Nations' anti-hunger agency, an estimated 270 million people are expected to face fatal food shortages this year, up from 150 million before the pandemic. According to the analysis, the amount of
people on the verge of famine, the most severe stage of a hunger crisis, has risen to 41 million from
The Real Killer: COVID-19 or Poverty?
34 million last year (United Nations World Food Programme, 2021)
We return to Eunice Nabifo— a mother of three who lives in a suburb in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. The Ugandan government understood the plight of the urban poor and began distributing maize (corn) flour and beans to vulnerable people affected by the lockdown, such as families led by
children, people living with HIV, and the elderly. While
Spring 2022
beneficial,
these
measures
do
not
The Mystery of Malawi Africa, however, continues to mystify the scientific community at large. Emerging research from studies conducted in Malawi, South Africa, and Uganda
in
2022
have
revealed
a
striking
phenomenon. Africans in these countries were all
35
infected with the omicron variant before it officially
North Carolina at Charlotte, examined reinfection
emerged. Lead researcher, Kondwani Jambo of the
and
Malawi-Liverpool-
Clinical
coronaviruses, including those responsible for
Research Programme, was shocked at the findings
common colds, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome,
of the Malawi study and suggests that the country
and COVID-19. The researchers used evolutionary
has reached the endemic stage of the pandemic
principles to simulate how natural immunity to
where the virus attains a predictable status—much
COVID-19 fades over time (Greenwood, 2021).
like the seasonal flu (Aizenman, 2022).
Their
Wellcome
Trust
A report by NPR reveals that Jambo’s research is substantiated by top scientists in Africa who also report similar results in Kenya, Madagascar, and South Africa. The bottom line is that there is a “very high prevalence of infection detected well before the arrival of the omicron variant” (Aizenman,
immunological
studies
data
determined
from
that,
various
in
areas
where COVID-19 is endemic, reinfection would most likely occur between three and sixty-three months after a person's peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months (Townsend, 2021). These findings present an optimistic outlook on the future of COVID-19 in Africa.
2022). Jambo hypothesizes that the reason for this immunity is African’s resistance to severe disease due to prior exposure to the earlier variants
Conclusion
(Aizenman, 2022). Another potential reason this
This paper has gone over the origins of COVID-19
resistance could exist is the high levels of malaria in
and has explored the impact of COVID-19 in Africa.
Africa. Researchers in Uganda found COVID-19
It is evident there is something unique about
patients with a high rate of malaria exposure were
Africa. Despite doomsday predictions of mass
less likely to develop severe disease or die than
death and infection, its initial response to COVID-
people with no history of the disease (Cheng &
19 and current news that some countries may have
Mutsaka, 2021). Jane Achan, a senior research
reached endemicity have amazed and puzzled the
advisor at the Malaria Consortium and a co-author
world. Of the hypotheses examined, none present
of the study, suggested that previous malaria
overwhelming evidence that refutably point to a
infection could "blunt" people's immune systems'
sole reason. Of all hypotheses examined, the
proclivity to go into overdrive when infected with
ubiquity of the young median age in Africa could be
COVID-19 (Cheng & Mutsaka, 2021).
the more predominant hypothesis, but more
If these findings are to be accepted, the question to
research on the other theories is necessary.
be asked is, how long does natural immunity to the virus last? Research on this matter is limited and subject to change, but according to Jeffrey Townsend, a professor of biostatistics at Yale University, “Reinfection can reasonably happen in three months or less" (Greenwood, 2021). Research led by Jeffrey Townsend of Yale School of Public Health and Alex Dornburg, assistant professor of bioinformatics and genomics at the University of
36
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
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Bruton, B. (2020, April 7). What does the
coronavirus mean for Africa? Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ blogs/africasource/what-does-thecoronavirus-mean-for-africa/ Cheng, M. & Mutsaka, F. (2021, November 19). Scientists mystified, wary, as Africa avoids COVID disaster. ABC News. https:// abcnews.go.com/Health/ wireStory/scientists-mystified-wary-africa-
avoids-covid-disaster-81271647 Chitungo, I., Dzobo, M., Hlongwa, M., &
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Dzinamarira, T. (2020). Covid-19:
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alerts/2020/04/egypt-government-to-banramadan-gatherings-due-to-covid-19-april7-update-14 The Economist. (2020, May 26). Why Africa struggles to test for covid-19. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/ graphic-detail/2020/05/26/why-africastruggles-to-test-for-covid-19 Townsend, Dr. J., Hassler, H., Wang, Z., Miura, Dr.
S., Singh, J., Kumar, Dr. S., et al. (2021, October 1). The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study. https:// doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00219-6 Encyclopædia Britannica. (n.d.). Climate of Africa. https://www.britannica.com/place/Africa/ Climate Goldbaum, C., & Silva, J. (2021, August 6). No
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31093-x Kortepeter, M. (2020, July 31). Why is covid-19 more deadly than ebola? an infectious disease doctor explains. Forbes. https:// www.forbes.com/sites/ coronavirusfrontlines/2020/07/31/why-iscovid-19-more-deadly-than-ebola-aninfectious-disease-doctor-explains/? sh=48bbf771f734
Nkengasong, J. (2020, April 28). Let Africa into the market for COVID-19 Diagnostics. Nature News. https://www.nature.com/articles/ d41586-020-01265-0 Parke, P. (2016, January 19). More Africans have access to cell phone service than piped water. CNN. https:// www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/africa/africaafrobarometer-infrastructure-report/ index.html Obulutsa, G. (2021, July 30). Kenya suspends inperson meetings to curb COVID-19 spread. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/ africa/kenya-suspends-all-in-personmeetings-countrywide-contain-covid-19spread-2021-07-30/
is likely, study finds. YaleNews. https:// news.yale.edu/2021/10/01/unvaccinatedreinfection-sars-cov-2-likely-study-finds
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Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Appel,
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Macdonald, B., Beltekian, D., & Roser, M.
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Sajadi, M. M., Habibzadeh, P., Vintzileos, A., Shokouhi, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., &
20famine%20conditions.%E2%80%9D Vörösmarty, C., Green, P., Revenga, C., & Douglas,
Amoroso, A. (2020). Temperature,
E. (2005). Geospatial indicators of
humidity, and latitude analysis to estimate
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JAMA Network Open, 3(6). https:// doi.org/10.1001/ jamanetworkopen.2020.11834 Thelwell, K. (2020, October 2). Sub-Saharan
Wetzel, D. (2020, May 20). Pandemics know no borders: In Africa, regional collaboration is key to fighting COVID-19. World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/
African slums: The housing crisis. The
africacan/pandemics-know-no-borders-
Borgen Project. https://borgenproject.org/
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#:~:text=While%20around%20one% 20billion%20people,the%20world% 20for%20urban%20poverty The New York Times. (2020, March 3). Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and case count. https://www.nytimes.com/ interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
United Nations Development Programme. (2017, August 7). Africa's defining challenge. UNDP in Africa. https:// www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/ home/blog/2017/8/7/ africa_defining_challenge.html United Nations Environment Programme. (2014, November 24). Water scarcity. United
World Bank. (2018, October 17). Nearly half the world lives on less than $5.50 a day. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-theworld-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day World Bank. (n.d.). World Development Indicators. https://
datatopics.worldbank.org/worlddevelopment-indicators/ World Health Organization. (2021, October 14). Six in seven COVID-19 infections go undetected in Africa. World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. https://www.afro.who.int/news/six-sevencovid-19-infections-go-undetected-africa
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Worldometer. (n.d.). Africa population (live). https://www.worldometers.info/worldpopulation/africa-population/ #:~:text=The%20median%20age%20in% 20Africa%20is%2019.7years
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John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Source: Quartz Media, https://qz.com/486986/the-attendees-to-chinas-military-parade-leaders-of-the-worlds-least-powerful-countries/
Is a New Red Dawn Rising? Ethnic Nationalism, Ethnic Minorities, and Foreign Aggression in Russia and China James Hodson
Spring 2022
Abstract Russia and China have been gaining power and growing increasingly aggressive. This rise in foreign aggression comes contemporaneously with a rise in ethnic nationalism in both countries. Both the state and the populace have adopted an ethnocultural consciousness bent on regaining national power and standing while promoting an alternative civilization to that of the West. This consciousness drives foreign aggression. Another factor, however, is the presence of multiple large, concentrated ethnic minority groups in both Russia’s and China’s territories. It is hypothesized that ethnic nationalism will drive aggressive foreign politics, but the presence of legacy ethnic minorities will restrain the scope of that aggression. Russia’s and China’s cases were examined to investigate the hypothesis using the concepts of order, body, and consciousness. The hypothesis was not found to be the case in Russia. Its particular civilizational conception of ethnic nationalism allows it to incorporate non-ethnic Russians and the existing patriotism of non-ethnic Russians supports the state’s foreign aggression. The hypothesis was found to be more plausible in China. The lack of a sense of belonging among non-ethnic Han Chinese forces the Chinese Communist Party to find ways to accommodate ethnic minorities, whether through appeasement or repression.
41
B
oth Russia and China have vast lands
justifying its actions in Crimea (Kolstø, 2016). In
inhabited by multitudes of ethnic
China,
groups, legacies left to them by their
populace broke out into violence in 2005. The
imperial past. Russia is home to one
Chinese government has also adopted more Han-
hundred ninety-three ethnic groups living in lands stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean. Over two hundred seventy languages were spoken in Russia in 2010. Additionally, concentrated
populations of Orthodox Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, and Shamanists all exist within its borders. (Minority Rights, 2020, December). China is home to fifty-six official ethnic groups in addition to many unrecognized groups. In the 1964 census, over four hundred groups applied for recognition
as
separate
ethnicities
(Minority
Rights, 2017, November).
sentiments
among
the
centric rhetoric and policies (Cabestan, 2005). The rise in ethnic nationalism has accompanied an increase in economic status and geopolitical power in both Russia and China. Under Putin, Russia has rebuilt its economy and restored its status as a great power. Not only has Russia recovered from the fall of the Soviet Union, but it has also been so aggressive as to militarily annex Crimea and to oppose American interests in Syria (Alexseev & Hale, 2016; Stein, 2020). China likewise has grown more aggressive, launching the Belt and Road initiative worldwide, establishing the military bases
Previously, loyalty to the dynasty or party has held
in the Pacific, and positioning itself as America’s
these medleys of disparate ethnicities together. In
next rival (Russel & Berger, 2020). The research
tsarist Russia, the Romanov dynasty brought
question of this project is how the tension between
numerous ethnic groups under their rule. The
imperial legacy and contemporary nationalism has
Romanovs held these groups under their sway
affected Russia’s and China’s foreign policy.
through dynastic loyalty or military force, itself loyal to the dynasty. The Soviets replaced the dynasty with the party, portraying a “friendship of the peoples” (Blakkisrud, 2016, p. 269). In imperial China, the various dynasties held sway over their vast dominions through loyal bureaucrats and
autonomous princes. The Communists followed the Soviet
model,
allowing
a
diverse
group
of
ethnicities to be loyal to one party.
42
anti-Japanese
Nationalism can express itself both defensively and aggressively, depending on the perceived power of the state. Civic nationalism and statist patriotism can either focus on the expansion of national power or the territorial preservation of state borders. Likewise, ethnic nationalism can either focus on the expansion of ethnic power or the xenophobic preservation of ethnic purity (Kolstø, 2016). Both Russia and China perceive themselves to be
Recently, however, Russia and China have seen
powerful players on the international scene,
ethnic nationalism arise in their populace and
lending to their assertiveness (Kolstø, 2016; Kuan,
ethnic
their
2019). Both Russia and China, however, are also
governments. In Russia, the 2010 riot on Moscow’s
multi-ethnic countries with significant ethnic
Manezhnaia Square provides a poignant example of
enclaves. Majority ethnic nationalism often leads to
the xenophobia and ethnocentrism present within
conflict with ethnic minorities (Alexseev, 2016).
the Russian populace. (Verkhovsky, 2016). In 2014,
The research hypothesis is that ethnic nationalism
the Kremlin used ethnic nationalist language when
will drive aggressive foreign politics, but the
nationalist
rhetoric
come
from
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
presence of legacy ethnic minorities will restrain
with the People’s Republic of China consisting of
the scope of aggression. Russia and China will first
fifty-six official ethnic groups (Zedong, 1953;
have to mind their empire at home before pressing
Information Office, 1999, September).
on too far outside their borders.
Despite
this
official
history,
popular
ethnic
nationalism is high in Russia. Ethnic nationalists of various
Literature Review
and
political
persuasions
collectively oppose migrant workers from the
Nationalism as an ideology comes in many
Caucasus
different forms. The literature has identified the
Kosmarskaya & Savin, 2016). The riot on Moscow’s
two main strands of nationalism as ‘imperial’ or
Manezhnaia Square in 2010 is one of many
‘civic’
examples of xenophobic violence against migrant
nationalism
and
‘ethnic’
nationalism.
and
Central
nationalists view the state as having betrayed the
within the borders of the new state” (Blakkisurd,
nation with its economic pragmatism and market
2016, p. 249). This form of nationalism derives
globalism. With their goal closer than ever, ethnic
from the state and its territory. Also known as
nationalists wish to form a pure ethnic Russian
patriotism, imperial nationalism seeks a strong
(russkii) nation-state (Rutland, 2016; Verkhovsky,
state and the preservation or expansion of the
2016).
common descent, culture, history, and language. Ethnic nationalism seeks the preservation of ethnic purity and dominance (Kolstø, 2016).
Many
2016;
identity “intended to encompass everyone residing
identity. This form of nationalism derives from
2016).
(Kolstø,
workers
involves a more exclusive ethnic and cultural
(Verkhovsky,
Asia
Imperial nationalism involves a civic national
country’s territory. Ethnic nationalism, however,
ethnic
Popular ethnic nationalism is also on the rise in China. The pragmatic, conservative nationalism of the Communist party’s old elite is now challenged and supplemented by populist nationalism and revanchist nationalism. Like in Russia, both populist nationalism and revanchist nationalism
Historically, the Russian and Chinese governments
view the state as having betrayed the people with
have promoted multicultural, imperial nationalism.
its economic pragmatism and compromising with
The Soviets promoted the “friendship of the
foreigners. The populists are anti-Western, anti-
peoples”
establishing
Japanese, and Han-centric (Cabestan, 2005; Che,
autonomous ethnic regions and denouncing “Great
2020). They are particularly active online (Leibold,
Russian chauvinism” (Blakkisrud, 2016, p. 269; p.
2016; Liu, 2006, Wu, 2007). The 1999 protests
249). The Russian Federation continued this
against the Chinese embassy bombing and the
practice, promoting a civic Russian (rossiiskii)
2005 anti-Japanese violence are more tangible
identity, emphasizing Russia’s ethnic diversity, and
examples of this strand of nationalism. The
repressing extreme ethnic nationalists (Blakkisrud,
revanchists, also anti-Western and anti-Japanese,
2016;
insist on a return to Maoism (Cabestan, 2005; Che,
within
Kolstø,
the
2016).
U.S.S.R.,
Likewise,
the
Chinese
Nationalist Party promoted the idea of zhonghua minzu and five ethnicities in one nation (Kuan, 2019). Mao also denounced “Han chauvinism,”
Spring 2022
theological
2020).
Increasingly, the Russian government is shifting towards a moderate ethnic nationalism in its
43
rhetoric and policies. The Kremlin justified its
into repeated conflict with minorities. In Russia,
annexation of Crimea by appealing to the majority
ethnic minorities have even supported Russia’s
ethnic Russian population of the peninsula and the
annexation of Crimea despite the Kremlin’s ethnic
state’s national security interests in access to the
nationalist
undertones
(Alexseev,
Black Sea. This dual explanation appealed to both
Additionally,
the
has
ethnic and imperial nationalists (Alexseev, 2016;
promote the preservation of minority cultures
Kolstø, 2016). Indeed, 88 percent of the population
through autonomous territories and the use of
supported “Crimea’s joining of Russia” (Alexseev,
minority languages in schools (Blakkisrud, 2016).
2016, p. 162). Increasingly, in his speeches, Putin
Finally, external expansion and departing migrant
uses the ethnic term russikii instead of the civic
workers have reduced xenophobia among the
term rossiiskii (Blakkisrud, 2016). He appeals to
Russian populace (Kosmarskaya & Savin, 2016;
ethnic Russian (russikii) identity and culture as
Alexseev, 2016). Like Russia, China has granted
what holds together the Russian federation, even
significant regional autonomy to ethnic minorities.
calling
“state-bearing
Historically, China has even given preference to
people” (Kolstø, 2016, p. 34). This restored
ethnic minorities regarding the One-Child policy,
“Russian world” serves as an alternative to Western
economic
liberal society (Pain, 2016, p. 72; Laruelle, 2016).
education (Hoshino, 2019; People’s Republic of
ethnic
Russians
the
The Chinese have also adopted more ethnic nationalist rhetoric. Xi Jinping, in particular, has appealed
to
both
populist
nationalists
and
revanchist nationalists. Compared to his more conservative
forerunners,
Xi
Jinping
has
aggressively asserted China’s place in the current international system while placing China in opposition to the West (Kuan, 2019). Young, populist “wolf warrior” diplomats now serve as the
China,
Kremlin
development,
1999).
Now,
2016).
continued
employment,
however,
the
to
and
Chinese
government is shifting from multiculturalism to assimilation. Religious persecution has renewed among Tibetan Buddhists and Uyghur Muslims, while linguistic homogeneity is enforced in the classroom. Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” is of a homogenous,
socialist,
Han-centric
China
(Erickson, 2021; Leibold, 2013; Minority Rights Group International, 2007).
face of Chinese foreign policy, often focusing on
appealing to domestic nationalism over dealing with foreign powers. The government has also taken steps against minority groups, such as the
This study employs primarily qualitative methods
Uyghurs. Finally, Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream”
supported
appeals to both populists and revanchists by
secondary data from past studies, journalistic
promoting a restoration of Chinese society and
articles, and state sources, this study hopes to
culture (Cabestan, 2005; Che, 2020; Leibold,
evaluate the effect that imperial legacy and ethnic
2013). Like Russia, this is a restoration of Chinese
nationalism have on a country’s foreign policy.
society as an alternative to Western liberal society.
Russia and China were chosen as case studies due
So far, the Russians have avoided conflict with minority ethnicities, but the Chinese have come
44
Data and Methods by
quantitative
methods.
Using
to their long imperial history, concentrated ethnic
minorities, emerging majority nationalism, and status as rising Great Powers. Both countries have
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
had to manage a transition from empire to nation-
nationalism identifies the state with the nation,
state with its attendant domestic tribulations. As
deriving citizenship from nationhood. Secondly,
rising Great Powers, their domestic affairs and
nationalism will be measured along a spectrum of
emergent national cultures have a great impact
“power distribution” ranging from imperialist to
upon the international system.
democratic. Imperial nationalism identifies power
Expanding upon Sven Gunnar Simonsen’s two-axis model, the dependent variable of this study is the “territorial orientation” of Russia and China, defined as a state’s disposition to either privilege
identifies power with the people or nation. Both “national identity” and “power distribution” will be
measured using state policies and public opinion.
territorial defense or imperial expansion in their
State policies and public opinion will be analyzed
policy and discourse (P. Kolstø, 2016). The two
as deriving from an imperial legacy or emerging
ends of this spectrum are a “Core” orientation
ethnic
towards defense and an “Empire” orientation
conceptualization
towards expansion. The “territorial orientations” of
“consciousness” (2016). “Order” refers to “the
Russia and China will be measured using state
political regime” of a country and its policies. An
policies and popular opinion. States oriented
imperial order locates power with the sovereign
towards the “Core” tend to engage in less
whereas a democratic order locates power with the
diplomatic and military aggression unprovoked
people. “Body” refers to “the territory of the
than states oriented towards the “Empire,” who
country” under the jurisdiction of the “order,”
seek to expand their territory and influence.
including regions with both majority and minority
Populaces oriented towards the “Core” tend to
ethnicities and cultures. A state can seek to retain
disapprove of territorial expansion and prioritize
territory or acquire territory and influence. Finally,
domestic concerns over foreign intervention. States
“consciousness” refers to “an intricate complex of
and populaces lie on a spectrum between two ideal
traditional stereotypes of popular consciousness”
types, and particular actions and opinions are not
that preserves the stability of the “order” and
always consistent with their general orientation.
justifies policies concerning the “body” (E. Pain,
The independent variable of this study is the nationalism, or lack thereof, within Russia and China. For the purposes of this study, nationalism will be operationalized along two axes. Firstly,
Spring 2022
with the sovereign while democratic nationalism
nationalism of
using “order,”
Emil
Pain’s
“body,”
and
2016). The consciousness of a people—or a segment
of that people—expresses values about “territorial orientation,”
“national
identity,”
and
“power
distribution.”
nationalism will be measured along a spectrum of
Finally, this study is inherently historical. Aspects
“national identity” ranging from pure statism to
of a state’s “order,” “body,” and “consciousness” do
statist nationalism to ethnic nationalism (P. Kolstø,
not arise spontaneously. In these cases, they result
2016). Pure statism completely discards the
from hundreds and thousands of years. While
conception of a nation or, else, removes the
human actors prevent the matter from being one of
necessity of connecting power with nationhood.
determinism, nations tend to develop dispositions
Statist nationalism identifies the nation with the
towards certain lines of thought and action. Once a
state, deriving nationhood from citizenship. Ethnic
tradition has been accumulated, it is difficult to
45
completely escape it. An example of this is the
when faced with a multi-ethnic country. In fact, it is
Western
usually in the interest of such a state to prevent
institution
contemporary
of
freedom
freedom.
from
ethnic conflict and to promote a consciousness
preceding Western conceptions, it rests upon the
rooted in citizenship. An ethnic nationalist state,
ideas and practices of Western Civilization going
faced with the same circumstances, would likely
back to the ancient Greeks. A line of developmental
engender ethnic conflict by preferring one ethnicity
lineage can easily be drawn. Likewise, current
or
circumstances
cultural
consciousness protective of national identity and
consciousness all result from a continued historical
culture. For such a state, the interest of the nation
development. Each case study will begin with a
is worth the instability of the state.
and
differs
Although
aspects
greatly
of
brief summary of the historical development of the current circumstances and ethnic nationalism of Russia and China.
another.
It
would
promote
an
ethnic
The above analysis illustrates a problem with this approach: nationalism is simply one of many attributes composing a country’s consciousness. The combination of a country’s attributes and sub-
Research The Problem Two of the world’s Great Powers, Russia and China, have an extensive imperial heritage of sprawling territory, concentrated ethnic minorities, and an historically statist national identity. Both empires have had to wrestle with the advent of the nationstate in the nineteenth century, the triumph and fall of statism in the twentieth century, and the emergence of ethnic nationalism as a driving force of popular opinion and station action. The reemergence of Russia and China as Great Powers
rivalling the United States raises their domestic nationalism to global importance. How nationalism will shape Russian and Chinese domestic and
and circumstances. A statist state with progressive tendencies would attempt to prevent ethnic conflict through toleration, while a statist state with authoritarian collectivist tendencies would attempt to do so through repression and assimilation. An ethnic nationalist state with progressive tendencies, however, would not work quite the same as a statist state
with
such
tendencies.
Although
not
impossible, it is hard to imagine an ethnic nationalist
state
extensively
tolerating
ethnic
minorities. While progressivism may temper the degree of favoritism, it will in turn be tempered by
ethnic nationalism. Such a contradiction may lead to the demise of one attribute in favor of another in the long run.
foreign policy can be predicted from how it has
A final element that ought to be considered in any
shaped them so far.
analysis of state action is power. A state without
While statism and ethnic nationalism do not determine a country’s “territorial orientation,” they do indicate which actions a state might take in response to circumstances and what circumstances
might arise from that state’s action. For instance, a statist state is less likely to engender ethnic conflict
46
attributes gives rise to different emergent actions
power is unlikely to have an aggressive “territorial orientation.” Indeed, a lack of power domestically would force a state to orient towards the “Core” as it sought to stabilize its rule. A state with stable domestic power is more likely to seek international power, and a state with strong international power is more likely to aggressively seek its interests.
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Power can be defined teleologically as the ability of
circumstances and cultural consciousness, these
a state to achieve its perceived ends. It is the
case studies will examine the effect of nationalism
dominant aspect of a state’s circumstances for
on contemporary state policies and public opinion
determining international relations (N. Onuf,
using state documents, journalistic articles, and
2017). Nationalism, part of a state’s consciousness,
scholarly literature. Finally, these case studies will
can be framed as an appetite, the desire for some
attempt to predict the future effect of nationalism
ultimate end.
on state politics and public opinion from past
The problem this study seeks to answer is how
imperial
legacies
and
ethnic
nationalism
specifically have influenced and will continue to influence Russian and Chinese foreign policy. Alternatively, this study could be framed as answering
how
a
state’s
ultimate
end—its
conception of nationhood—shapes that state’s immediate ends and use of means—policies—in response
to
current
circumstances—including
power distributions, territorial extent, and ethnic homogeny. As shown in the preceding paragraphs, nationalism is not necessarily a state’s only or highest
ultimate
end.
A
trends.
state’s
cultural
consciousness has many component aspects of which nationalism is merely a prominent member. Nonetheless, nationalism is prominent enough to isolate as an important influencer of state policies. Examining nationalism in the larger historical context of Russia’s and China’s circumstances and cultural consciousness should illuminate the effects
Russia Russia’s imperial past stretches back to A.D. 1547 with the crowning of Ivan the Terrible as Tsar. Russia drew heavily on the imperial traditions of the Byzantine Empire and the Mongol Khanate: the rule of a single universal emperor as judge under God. Here also one finds the tension between Europe and Asia intrinsic in Russian identity
moving on. Russia continued to centralize under Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. Under these rulers Russia embraced Western ideas and practices, although modified to suit Russian autocracy. Europe had won but not wholly. It would soon drive Russia away. The French Revolution unleashed the ravages of nationalism in 1789, and the Napoleonic Wars spread them across Europe (Montefiore, 2016).
that emerging ethnic nationalism has on post-
After the Napoleonic Wars, Russia struggled to deal
imperial states.
with the conflicting values of imperial autocracy and nationalism. In 1825, the Decembrist uprising broke out as revolutionary nobles sought to limit
Case Studies
Spring 2022
autocracy with a constitution. According to Pain,
Two national case studies will be examined to
this is the apogee of civic nationalist thought
determine the effects of ethnic nationalism on the
arising from the French Revolution in nineteenth-
foreign policy of states with significant imperial
century Russia. This civic nationalism identified
legacies. First, these case studies will summarize
nationality with citizenship and the nation as the
the historical development of each state’s “order,”
source of sovereignty. The Russian state and
“body,” and “consciousness.” Having established
cultural elite originally welcomed the idea. As had
the
occurred under Peter the Great, Alexander I
development
of
each
state’s
current
47
embraced Western ideas modified to Russian
ethnic Russian political domination merged the
circumstances. The Decembrist uprising occurring
idea of protecting the empire with preferential
under Nikolai I soured civic nationalism in the
rights
minds of the elite, leading to the censorship of the
Russians with the sovereign emperor as separate
term “nation” (Pain, 2016).
from
In 1833, Minister of Education Sergei Uvarov provided “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality” as the Russian response to the French “Freedom,
Equality, and Brotherhood.” Nationality committed Russia to preserve its unique cultural traditions in
other
the
Russian
subject
majority,
peoples
identifying
(Pain,
2016).
Additionally, Slavophiles divided the world into “Self” with which unity should be sought and “Other” with which conflict was inevitable. The
most prominent “Other” was the West (Tsygankov, 2008).
opposition to the West while bolstering imperial
The Soviet Union rejected ethnic nationalism as
autocracy
the
inconsistent with communism. Communism at its
emperor above the people. Culminating in the
core is a globalist ideology. As Marx stated in the
1860s, nationality was represented as a unique
Communist Manifesto, “The supremacy of the
Russian concept “reflecting the specifics of the
proletariat will cause them [national differences
culture and rituals of the folk” (Pain, 2016, p. 50).
and antagonism] to vanish still faster” (Marx, 2010,
As Pain points out, this matches the contemporary
p. 25). Put more succinctly by Engels in Anti-
definition of an ethnic community, “a group of
Duhring, “the state is not ‘abolished.’ It dies
people linked together by ideas about a shared
out” (Engels, 1996). Lenin denounced “Great
origin and with their own name for themselves
Russian chauvinism” (2005). A brief revival of
(ethnonym)”
(Pain,
an
ethnic nationalism arose with the Stalinist doctrine
ethnocultural
nationalism
exceptionalism
of “socialism in one country” arose, leading to a
arose in nineteenth-century Russia in reaction to
federal system of national republics dominated by
Western liberalism.
ethnic Russians. With the death of Stalin, however,
with
paternalistic
2016,
imagery
p.50). and
of
Thus,
This ethnocultural tradition reached its apogee under the Slavophiles of the late nineteenth century in opposition to the civic nationalism of the
Westernizers.
Pain
lists
their
defining
characteristics as essentialism, a defensive imperial character, and the principle of the political domination supposed
48
for
of
ethnic
Russians.
Essentialism
that the Russians were a
people
the Soviet Union adopted a policy of dual nationality, the recognition of ethnic nationality and the promotion of civic nationality with the long
-term goal of blending ethnicities together into one people (Meissner, 1976). This “friendship of the peoples” united the multinational Soviet republics into
one
civic
identity
of
“Soviet
the
Russian
people” (Blakkisrud, 2016).
fundamentally unique from all others, specifically
This
the West. Not only were the customs of the Russian
Federation. The Yeltsin regime, followed initially by
people different, their essential mission was
the Putin regime, promoted the civic identity of
exceptional as well. Their defensive imperial
“Russian” (rossiiskii) as opposed to the ethnic term
character committed Slavophiles to the defense of
of russkii. Accompanying this, Westernizers and
autocracy,
Russia’s
democratic reformers arose triumphant under the
territory, the imperial body. Finally, the principle of
Yeltsin regime. Russia finally wished to integrate
the
imperial
order,
and
policy
continued
under
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
with Europe (Kolstø, 2016). Dissatisfaction with
uniquely Russian ethnic and cultural consciousness
government corruption soon led to a rising popular
(Laruelle, 2016).
distrust of the West and widespread ethnic nationalism. At the fringe laid various ethnic supremacist groups. Intellectually, a three-sided battle emerged between civic nationalists, ethnic nationalists, and an Eurasianist coalition of imperial
nationalists
and
statists.
The
first
prioritized state stability, economic modernization, and Westernization. The second prioritized ethnic integrity, democratic reforms, and Westernization. The
third
prioritized
state
power,
cultural
conservation, and Russian essentialism (Kolstø, 2016; Pain, 2016).
debate, anti-immigrant fervour, and economic decline that the Kremlin’s new nationalist policy has taken shape. The Kremlin has consistently suppressed
radical
ethnic
nationalists
and
nationalist democrats as dangerous to the State. In
particular, the Kremlin forcefully clamped down on ethnic nationalism after the 2010 anti-migrant riots
in
Manezhnaia
Square
(Kolstø,
2016;
Blakkisrud, 2016.). This rise in popular ethnic nationalist feeling, along with organized political opposition, caused a reaction among the Russian
Populist ethnic nationalism arose in part from the
political elite. While firmly rejecting a mono-ethnic
collapse of the Soviet Union, economic decline, anti
nation-state, a 2012 article by Putin presented
-Western feeling, and anti-Muslim feeling. The
ethnic Russians (russkii) as “the state-forming
collapse
Union
nation” (Putin, 2012, as cited in Blakkisrud, 2016).
suddenly placed millions of Russians into a Russian
Putin presented the Russian Federation as a
Federation in which ethnic Russians composed
multiethnic Russian (russkii) civilization bound
more than 80 percent of the population. This
together by the political and cultural leadership of
transformed Russia from a functional empire to
the Russian people (Blakkisrud, 2016).
of
the
multi-national
Soviet
something resembling a nation-state (Kolstø, 2016, p. 41). In addition to gaining nearly an ethnic state, the
failure
of
economic
reforms,
Western
opposition, and Islamic radicalism created “Others” from which Russians could separate themselves.
The failure of market reforms, the expansion of NATO, and Western sanctions soured public opinion towards the West, which was viewed as undermining Russia (Laruelle, 2016; Rutland, 2016). Likewise, the Chechen Wars and immigrant labor from the Caucasus and Central Asia produced anti-Muslim sentiments among the populace. The 2013 Romir survey found that 60.5 percent of respondents believed that Islam represented “a threat
to
social
stability
and
Russian
culture” (Kolstø, 2016, p. 41). The enmity with West and East promoted the development of a
Spring 2022
It is in this crucible of political battle, intellectual
This
new
official
nationalism
retains
an
authoritarian order and an imperial body. Putin has promoted a conception of social contract between the state and the populace in which the state provides security and services to the populace
in return for loyalty and support (Rutland, 2016). The political order itself is largely based upon networks isolated
of from
patron-client popular
relationships
control;
and
nevertheless,
popular opinion heavily influences the stability of these
patron-client
relationships.
A
Russian
president without the support of the people with soon no longer be president (Alexseev & Hale, 2016; Hale, 2016). Putin has consistently defended the territorial integrity and multiethnic nature of the Russian Federation (Blakkisrud, 2016). The Russian body is essentially imperial, regions of
49
varying autonomy owing allegiance to a central
statists supported the annexation in hopes of
government, the fragmentation of which weakens
restoring Russia’s power. The ethnic nationalists
the state.
supported the annexation as it incorporated ethnic
This official nationalism, however, consists of a unique ethnocultural consciousness, from which the order and body derive. The Russian (russkii) people are the state-forming nation of the Russian Federation. The central government and the unity
of the disparate peoples are held together by the leadership of the Russian people, the Russian language,
Russian
culture,
and
the
Russian
Orthodox Church. The interests of the state and
minorities supported the annexation in hopes of resurrecting a truly multiethnic state in the vein of the
Soviet
ethnocultural
Union.
By
imposing
consciousness
on a
the
new
preexistent
authoritarian order and imperial body, the Kremlin had co-opted ethnic nationalism, increased state power, and accommodated ethnic minorities in one stroke (Alexseev, 2016; Kolstø, 2016; Pain, 2016).
peoples of the Federation are framed in terms of
So far, the Kremlin has been able to accommodate
the interests of the Russian (russkii) people.
the ethnic minorities despite promoting majority
Likewise, the territory of the Russian Federation
ethnic nationalism. Part of this is the cultural
derives from an historic ethnic Russian self-
rather than purely ethnic nature of nationalism
determination
that the Kremlin’s promotes (Blakkisrud, 2016).
civilization.
to The
establish territory
a
Russian
Another part is that the Kremlin has primarily
Federation, whether populated by ethnic Russians
mobilized ethnic nationalism for foreign projects.
or not, is derived from the ethnic Russian cultural
The annexation of Crimea and the opposition to the
mandate. The exact nature of the Russian (russkii)
West have both been framed as promoting Russian
people as conveyed by Putin is unclear though.
nationalism (Pain, 2016). Russian minority groups
While including ethnic Russians primarily, the
are actually more supportive of Russia’s nationalist
term also includes the larger Russian world (russkii
expansionistic tendencies than ethnic Russians.
mir) of cultural Russians. This extra-territorial and
Further, a 2013 survey found that 90 percent of
civilizational approach to nationality avoids the
ethnic non-Russian respondents were proud of
constraints of strict ethnic nationalism while
being Russian (rossiiane) citizens and 71 percent of
supporting
those who voted did so for Putin (Alexseev, 2016).
Russian
of
multiethnic
actions
the
internationally
(Blakkisurd, 2016; Pain, 2016).
In return for their support, the Kremlin has largely
The annexation of Crimean in 2014 illustrated the power of this nationalist narrative in support of the Kremlin’s
initiatives.
The
ethnic
Russian
composition of Crimea and its historical inclusion
50
Russians into the Russian nation-state. Even ethnic
celebrated Russia’s diversity and maintained the ethnic autonomous republics. In fact, minorities can be considered russkii culturally even if not ethnically (Blakkisrud, 2016).
in Russian lands helped to justify the annexation
The
Kremlin’s
expansionistic
and
external
within Russia. More importantly, the annexation of
application of cultural nationalism has given unity
Crimea successfully silenced internal political
to the country. The unifying stream through the
opposition and united the people behind the state
Kremlin’s message is the restoration of Russia as a
(Blakkisrud, 2016). The annexation brought Putin’s
Great Power and the preservation of Russian
approval rating to 88 percent (Rutland, 2016). The
culture from the predation of Western liberalism or
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
Muslim radicalism. This is the message that has
Russian ethnocultural nationalism may begin to
unified statists, ethnic nationalists, populists, and
break down if the state reduces its aggressive
ethnic minorities. The populace has even proved
foreign expansionism or other matters such as the
willing to sacrifice economic security in exchange
economy
for this vision (Rutland, 2016). The success of the
importance. As an aspirational narrative, the
Kremlin’s concept of nationalism derives from its
Kremlin’s ethnocultural nationalism successfully
breadth and flexibility. The ethnocultural nature of
directs popular ethnic nationalist as well as
Russia’s
unique
patriotic feeling towards achieving foreign policy
civilizational mandate that both nationalist and
objectives and maintaining a distinct cultural
patriotic Russians can support. Moreover, this
identity from the West. This aspirational nature
civilizational mandate supplies the Kremlin with a
requires that Russia continually strive towards
unique extra-territorial motivator for foreign action
improving its Great Power standing. Without an
(Laruelle, 2016).
external goal, the people’s focus may turn inward.
consciousness
gives
it
a
The flaws in the concept are the provocation of Western antagonism and ignoring ethnic strife at home. Russia has set its culture and civilization up as exceptional and aspirational. It denounces the liberalism of the West and the backwardness of the East (Laruelle, 2016). Its rhetoric places it in direct ideological competition with the West, isolating it from
the
global
community.
Further,
its
expansionism in Eastern Europe and claims to Great
Power
status
have provoked
Western
sanctions, hurting its economy and leading to popular unrest (Rutland, 2016). Crucially, however, this concept as it stands is dependent upon an external focus. Rising economic instability and
popular
Spring 2022
ethnic
supremacism
anti-Islamic
feeling
increase
in
Additionally, this external aggression and cultural exceptionalism isolates Russia from the West and, potentially, even allies like China. As long as Russia maintains this external antagonism, however, it will maintain an external aspiration to direct the
people’s nationalism and patriotism towards. Finally, even if circumstances cause Russia to turn inward, the inclusive cultural conception of nationalism may prevent severe ethnic tensions from arising. Russia’s ethnocultural consciousness will promote external aggression while reinforcing an authoritarian order and accommodating an imperial body.
China
unleash
China’s imperial past dates back to before 1122 B.C.
internally disruptive forces this concept cannot
with the Xia and Shang dynasties. These dynasties
withstand.
to
ruled as mediators between the people and Heaven.
incorporate minorities culturally, this concept
An important development occurred in 1122 B.C.
begins to break down when faced with the Muslim
with the overthrow of the Shang by the Zhou and
republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russian
the introduction of the Mandate of Heaven. The
culture has placed itself in opposition to Islam,
Mandate held that a government only had
hindering the incorporation of Muslims into
legitimacy so long as it ruled justly in the sight of
Russian civilization. In fact, 14.5 percent of ethnic
Heaven, which could indicate its displeasure
Russians would like the Muslim republics of the
through natural disasters, military defeats, and
North Caucasus to be separated from Russia
famine. In the ninth and eighth centuries B.C., the
(Alexseev, 2016; Blakkisrud, 2016).
Zhou declined in power by attacks from barbarians
Further,
despite
could
or
its
ability
51
and the increasing autonomy of the feudal
founded the first national university. Also during
domains.
warring
the Han dynasty, the Chinese faced a significant
between the several feudal states for power
This
resulted
in
frequent
outside threat in the form of the nomadic Xiongnu
(Wright, 2000). The Mandate of Heaven in
to the north and established the tributary system.
addition to this period likely imprinted the Chinese
Under the tributary system of exchanging gifts, the
with an aversion to foreign invasion and internal
tributary states ritually acknowledged Chinese
division.
supremacy while retaining functional autonomy.
The three primary Chinese philosophies arose
during
this
period
of
the
declining
Zhou.
followed by a period of division (Wright, 2000).
Confucianism became the guiding philosophy of
The Sui and Tang dynasties succeeded this period
the Chinese state. Confucianism emphasizes ritual
of division. The Sui dynasty reunited China and
and morality as the route to good government
redistribute agricultural land from the wealthy
under Heaven (Wright, 2000). As Dr. Kuan points
landlords to the peasants. The succeeding Tang
out, Confucian government generally becomes
dynasty, along with the Han dynasty, is seen as
patriarchal and authoritarian, but its emphasis on
China’s
harmony does lend a particular “peace-loving” to
institutionalized
the Chinese government (Kuan, 2019). Legalism
bureaucracy. The Tang continued the Sui dynasty’s
also
Legalism
program of agricultural reform, developing the
emphasizes power as the route to stable and
equal fields system under which the government
functional government. Finally, Taoism mostly
distributed plots of land to peasants to farm.
influenced the Chinese arts and home. Taoism
Finally, the Tang continued to interact with outside
emphasizes an understanding of and conformity to
threats, this time the Turks and Uighurs. The early
nature as the route to personal happiness. Both
Tang successfully subdued the Turks but later only
Confucianism and Taoism looked back to antiquity
unhappily
as a golden age compared to their contemporary
However, the Tang eventually collapsed and China
moral and political decline. Additionally, both
once again enter a period of foreign control and
placed the individual as the foundation of societal
disunity (Wright, 2000).
influenced
the
Chinese
state.
and governmental order. This contrasted with the Legalist emphasis on the ruler as the foundation of societal and governmental order (Wright, 2000).
52
The Han dynasty eventually collapsed in A.D. 220
golden
age.
The
Confucianism
accepted
the
Tang and
Uighurs
further the
as
Han
equals.
China reunited under the Song dynasty in A.D. 960 and continued under the Ming dynasty. The Song dynasty set the model for the succeeding dynasties
Following the Zhou came a succession of imperial
as “‘heavy on civilian government, light on the
dynasties and intermediate periods of foreign
military” (zhongwen qingwu). The Song dynasty
invasion and civil disunity. In 221 B.C, the Qin
was
dynasty united China as the first imperial dynasty.
frequently being invaded and humiliated by foreign
The Qin dynasty culturally and politically united
powers.
China, and its Legalist scholars established the
changed to one of isolation. It was during this
foundations of the administrative structure used to
period that the Chinese learned to fear foreigners
this day. The following Han dynasty established
and began to close themselves off from the world.
Confucianism as the official state philosophy and
In A.D. 1279, the Mongol Yuan dynasty prevailed
strong
internally
Chinese
yet
interaction
weak with
externally, the
world
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
over the Song dynasty and conquered all of China.
Nationalists
In A.D. 1368, the Chinese Ming dynasty threw out
Rebellion also prompted the Chinese to view
the foreign invaders. The Ming further centralized
Christianity and other Western ideas as essentially
political power into the hands of the emperor and
anti-Confucian and anti-Chinese (Wright, 2000).
continued the Song dynasty’s tendency towards isolation as they defended themselves against the Mongols.
Communists.
The
Taiping
The Qing dynasty breathed its last with the Boxer Rebellion of 1900 and the Nationalist Revolution of 1911, leading to decades of civil and foreign war.
From A.D. 1644-1912, the foreign Manchu reigned
The
in China as the Qing dynasty over a vast
accompanying expedition of allied Western nations
multiethnic empire. The Qing dynasty perpetuated
destroyed the remaining power and legitimacy of
Ming institutions essentially unchanged in China
the Qing dynasty and increased anti-Western
proper but allowed varying degrees of regional
sentiment among the Chinese populace. The
autonomy and variation in other parts of the
Revolution of 1911, led by Dr. Sun Yat-Sen,
empire. The Qing dynasty again elevated China’s
overthrew
international
complete
establishing a constitutional Chinese nation-state.
hegemony. The Qing viewed themselves as the
It soon turned into a dictatorship of general Yuan
center of the world (Wright, 2000). This hegemony
Shikai
soon collapsed under the pressure of European
Warlords. Throughout the 1920s, the Chinese
powers. The Treaty of Nanking with Great Britain
United Front of Nationalists led by Dr. Sun Yat-Sen
following the Opium War was the first of the
and Communists led by Mao Zedong succeeded in
“unequal treaties” imposed upon China by Western
conquering the Warlords and uniting China. In the
imperialist powers during the “century of national
1930s, however, the Nationalists, now led by
humiliation” (Wright, 2000, p. 105).
Chiang Kai-shek, Communists, and Japanese
position
to
one
of
Disaster after disaster struck China during this period. Additional humiliating treaties and armed interventions by the Western imperial powers followed, subverting the Qing dynasty’s view of
Spring 2022
and
xenophobic
the
before
Boxer
Qing
Rebellion
dynasty
fragmenting
in
and
hopes
among
the
of
various
fought a three-way war for China. The Rape of Nanking in WW2 by the Japanese scarred the Chinese consciousness and served as the apogee of the century of humiliation (Wright, 2000).
themselves as the center of the world. Practically,
This century of humiliation remains a centerpiece
Japan displaced China as the Asian hegemon in the
of contemporary Chinese political thought. It
First Sino-Japanese War (Wright, 2000). Within
consists of a strong feeling of “the rightful place of
China,
cataclysmic
China on the world stage” and a deep feeling of
proportions rebelled against the Qing dynasty.
shame at humiliation by the West and Japan
Known as the Taiping Rebellion, this revolution
(Callahan, 2004, p. 214). China’s humiliation has
sought to oust the Manchus and establish a pseudo
produced an aversion to Western states and ideas
-Christian Taiping Tianguo or “Heavenly Kingdom
and a hatred of the Japanese state and people,
of Great Peace” (Wright, 2000, p. 108). This
easily resulting in mass riots and anti-Japanese
rebellion dramatically weakened the Qing dynasty,
violence (Cabestan, 2005; Callahan, 2004). The
opening the way for predation by foreign powers,
rise of this “Other” as a common enemy helped to
regionalism, and future revolutionaries such as the
unite the Chinese into a modern nation through
a
popular
uprising
of
53
common suffering (Zheng, 2019). Further, China
Western market reforms to form “socialism with
believes that its own weak governments allowed
Chinese characteristics,” a publically-owned yet
predation by foreign powers. This drives the
privately-managed economic system based on
Chinese to value economic and military strength in
market principles (Vogel, 2011, p. 466). The
an effort to make China strong. It also reinforces
reforms worked. China’s GDP growth since 1978
cultural values, giving the Chinese a cultural
has
identity separate from the “Other” and strong
superseding Japan as the world’s second-largest
enough to resist contest or corruption. Finally,
economy in 2010 (World Bank, 2021; CFR.org
China seeks to regain its hegemony in Asia and
Editors, 2021). Coincident with its economic
Great Power standing internationally. This includes
growth, China modernized its military (Vogel,
the recovery of “Chinese” territory and suzerainty
2011). Despite this increase in strength, China
over former parts of the Qing Empire (Callahan,
proved to be unassuming and pragmatic, following
2004).
mottos like “keep a low profile” and “crossing the
After WW2 and the century of humiliation, the
nearly
10
percent
annually,
river, while reaching for the stones” (Che, 2020).
Chinese Communist Party defeated the Nationalists
Recently,
and led China into isolationism. The Chinese
bombastic all while facing new existential threats.
Communist Party itself was a populist movement,
Under Xi Jinping, China desires to be recognized
deriving most of its support from the peasantry.
for what it is, a Great Power and equal player on
After defeating the foreign-backed Nationalists,
the world stage. China has increasingly asserted its
China closed itself off from foreign interaction and
international prerogatives and a new generation of
placed
West.
“wolf warrior” diplomats aggressively push for
Additionally, a growing split occurred between it
China’s interests (Che, 2020). This has occurred
and the Soviet Union, leaving China alone. After
alongside
coming to power, the Chinese Communist Party
income inequality, and existential demographic
under Mao launched a number of economic and
decline. Chinese citizens have lost confidence in a
cultural reforms aimed at strengthening China on
stable multigenerational order and have given in to
the one hand and continuing the revolution on the
hedonistic tendencies. Other Chinese citizens
other. The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural
simply cannot afford to live. The dearth of children
Revolution, however, caused great harm to China’s
may lead to no Chinese citizens at all (Lyons, 2021,
populace. The Communist Party soon lost its
Oct. 11).
itself
in
opposition
to
the
popular support, surviving by force. Later Chinese look back upon these Maoist initiatives sorrowfully and decided never to allow such disruptive national movements or class struggles to reoccur (Wright, 2000; Kuan, 2019).
54
averaged
however,
slowing
China
economic
has
grown
growth,
more
growing
Chinese nationalism first arose in the modern sense with the thought of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen, founder of the Chinese Nationalist Party. Dr. Sun Yat-Sen’s nationalism sought to create a modern democratic Chinese nation-state after the Western model. Its
The Communist Party in the 1970s reopened China
first principle “defined nationalism in terms of
to the world. Having witnessed the failure of
opposition to imperialism and self-determination
internal revolution to strengthen China, Deng
for the Chinese people.” The second principle
Xiaoping and his successors selectively adopted
“defined the political rights of the people…as a
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
foundation for the development of democracy.” The
mold China after the West. Liberal nationalism
third principle “touched on people’s livelihood,
echoes back to the nationalism of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen
especially equalization of land ownership.” The
in the belief that China’s rise in modernity must be
people referred to in these principles were the
through democratization and liberalization. The
Chinese Nation (zhonghua minzu) composed of the
liberals seemed to be gaining much ground during
five
Manchurian,
the reforms of the 1970s and 1980s under Deng
Mongolian, Uighur, and Tibetan (Kuan, 2019). Dr.
Xiaoping, but the Tiananmen Square Massacre
Sun Yat-Sen’s nationalism embraced a multiethnic
crushed any liberal hopes under the Chinese
“Chinese” people united by a shared history and
Communist
saw all legitimate government derive from this
characterized
people.
foreign and minority policies, and visceral distaste
major
ethnicities:
Han,
Chinese nationalism shifted with the victory of the Chinese Communist Party. As a youth, Mao was a “naïve nationalist” according to his own estimation. He even desired each province to be independent. As he matured, Mao converted to Marxist-Leninist internationalism, sought a unified Chinese state, and blatantly rejected Han chauvinism (Kuan, 2019; Zedong, 2004). Despite this, however, Mao’s Chinese Communist Party relied upon popular nationalism to win the Chinese Civil War and justify its numerous reforms. These same reforms loss much of the Communist Party’s popular support. Deng Xiaoping proved less ideological and
by
Populist
Han
nationalism
is
chauvinism, aggressive
for Japan and the West. Popular nationalism has always been an important undercurrent in Chinese policy since the Taiping and Boxer Rebellions. It is particularly prominent among Chinese born in the 1980s and 1990s, finding its purest expression online, although marches and violence are not uncommon (Che, 2020; Leibold, 2016; Liu, 2006).
Finally, revanchist nationalism seeks a restoration of Maoist-type revolution and a rejection of the West (Che, 2020). All four ideologies share an interest in making China a strong nation-state, ousting foreign invaders, and redeeming national China’s honor.
more pragmatic. While desiring a stronger China,
The Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping
he quite freely adopted Western ideas and
has steered towards populist and revanchist
practices. This proved inimical to many Chinese
nationalism while retaining much of the old
who viewed anything Western as dangerous. Deng
conservative
worked a compromise by adapting market ideas to
conservative pragmatism gave China a strong
Chinese circumstances and culture, something Mao
economy and military, it also brought about
did with Marxist-Leninism. Deng’s reforms rapidly
massive income inequality, rampant political
increased China’s economic and military strength
corruption, and demographic decline. China had
while retaining a low profile and conciliatory
regained its strength and pride to swagger about on
attitude towards the outside world. His successors
the international scene, but its citizens lacked hope
followed suit, although they increasingly became
or belief in living. Xi Jinping’s accommodation of
more aggressive in seeking China’s interests (Kuan,
populist and revanchist nationalism looks to supply
2019; Che, 2020).
this gap. The Common Prosperity campaign seeks
This official conservative dogma faces numerous other dogmas. The liberals consciously seek to
Spring 2022
Party.
pragmatism.
While
the
old
to reduce wealth disparity and political corruption while addressing demographic decline and moral
55
degradation (Che, 2020; Lyons, 2021). Xi Jinping
China’s
Thought, a mixture of Confucianism, Maoism,
numerous
conservative
populist
converging on strengthening China’s position,
nationalism, provides a common ideology around
redeeming its national honor, and creating a strong
which the Chinese Communist Party and populace
ethnocultural identity. The Chinese Communist
can unite. It also provides a common enemy: the
Party still retains the conservative pragmatism to
West
Chinese
adapt ideas to Chinese culture and circumstances,
increasingly view Western ideas and policies as
but, increasingly, it seeks to construct a new culture
threatening the Chinese way of life, and liberal
for China. Xi Jinping has been influenced by
Chinese thinkers have been ostracized (Che, 2020;
populist and revanchist nationalism, promoting
Ownby, 2021).
traditional Chinese values, Confucianism, and
and
pragmatism,
the
Contemporary
United
Chinese
and
States.
The
nationalism
has
an
authoritarian order and quasi-imperial body. The rule
of
the
Chinese
Communist
Party
is
unquestionably authoritarian, ruthlessly enforcing one-party rule (Che, 2020). Even so, the Chinese retain a Confucian conception of the Mandate of Heaven (Zhao, 2009). The Chinese Communist Party cannot disregard the Chinese people’s good without facing political pressure. Xi Jinping’s Common Prosperity campaign is a case in point. China, having suffered from a century of foreign invasion and civil war, is highly concerned with its territorial
integrity
and
regional
hegemony
(Callahan, 2004). China’s territory, however, is
consciousness
divergent
streams
of
consists
of
thought
all
Maoism in an effort to give a moral consciousness to the Chinese populace. This includes a rejection of Western liberalism, acceptance of Chinese exceptionalism,
and
preservation
of
societal
morality (Che, 2020; Lyons, 2021; Ownby, 2021). This is a rejection of a purely state-based citizenship, tying a unique Chinese culture to the
state. Additionally, a privileged position has been given to the Han Chinese as the state-forming people and core of Chinese civilization (Leibold, 2013;
Lee,
2014;
Hoshino,
2019).
Although
populists and revanchists may go to extremes, Xi Jinping seeks to balance them with conservatives into a viable Chinese ideology (Che, 2020).
populated by fifty-five ethnic minorities composing
China’s ethnocultural consciousness is concerned
eight percent of the population in addition to the
primarily with securing China’s status as a Great
Han
Chinese
Power and protecting its foreign interests. China
Communist Party has historically extended an
under Xi Jinping has asserted itself aggressively on
equal, even privileged, status to ethnic minorities,
the international stage. Diplomatically, China’s
setting up autonomous regions and cities (Hoshino,
wolf warrior diplomats function more to preach an
2019). Complicating factors to Chinese territorial
image of China rather than reach a compromise
integrity are the statuses of Taiwan and Hong
with another country (Zhu, 2020). China has
Kong. Although the source of unending strife, a
steadily
prominent Chinese scholar, Jiang Shigong, has
consciousness from external pressure, reforming
defended “one country, two systems” as a uniquely
international law and swaying public opinion (Edel
Chinese
its
& Shullman, 2021). Militarily, China has declared
2004;
its willingness to use force to protect its territorial
Chinese
(Leibold,
expression
traditional
imperial
Garton, 2020).
56
national
of
2016).
The
governance
model
after
(Callahan,
protected
its
political
order
and
integrity and gain its interests. This disposition is
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
widely supported by the student population (Lee,
the Han and other minority groups have called for
2014; Edney, 2020). Economically, China has
the
launched the “Belt and Road Initiative” to spread
boundaries. Han nationalism, in particular, has
its
gain
emerged in both racial and cultural forms. Han
recognition as a Great Power. These initiatives
nationalists denounce not only oppression by the
undergird China as a revisionist power, seeking to
Western and Japanese, but the oppression of the
reform the global system to accommodate its new
Han Chinese by the Mongol and Manchu dynasties
status. This is an extension of China’s national
(Leibold, 2016). Although the Chinese Communist
project of reform to strengthen itself and redeem
Party continues to preserve China’s territorial
its honor on the world stage (Nguyen, 2019; Kuan,
integrity and ethnic diversity, it has increasingly
2019).
pursued
Han-centric
resulting
in
influence
in
other
countries
and
Despite its aggressive posture, however, China does not seek world domination. It merely desires to be recognized preeminent by the world. China is certainly imperialistic towards its neighbors and ubiquitous in spreading its influence, but world domination does not fit with China’s historical view of itself. China views itself as the rightful center—or at least one of the centers—of the world. Other nations
should
and
rhetoric,
persecution
and
enforced
assimilation of the Uyghurs and Tibetans with Han Chinese culture. The minorities, on their part, do not have any feelings of patriotic belonging (Lee, 2014; Turdush, 2019). Despite these developments, however, China’s ethnic policy will likely retain ethnic diversity in favor of state stability and
territorial integrity (Leibold, 2013).
2004; Kuan, 2019). After years of isolation and
nation’s honor and regain its strength interacting
internal restoration, Xi Jinping believes that China
with China’s popular nationalism and search for
ought to receive its rightful place in the world.
identity. Maoism provided a common identity
Flowing
on
based on Marxism-Leninism and opposition to the
harmony, this place is one of leadership driving
West but failed to improve China’s strength. The
towards peace, prosperity, and civilization (Kuan,
conservative
2019). Turning towards Legalism, China will use
successfully raised China to the ranks of Great
force and cunning to achieve this goal (Smith,
Powers by selectively adopting Western ideas, but
2021).
he failed to provide a common identity apart from new
emphasis
ethnocultural
consciousness has provoked ethnic strife. China’s current territorial body is premised upon the legacy of the Qing dynasty and the multiethnic “nations” of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen. All the ethnic groups in China are viewed as sharing a historical Chinese identity and civilization (Zheng, 2019). Many online populist nationalists, however, have pushed back against this narrative. Ethnic nationalists of both
Spring 2022
policies
decades of nationalism striving to redeem the
China’s
not
ethnic
approached or conquered by China (Callahan,
Confucianism’s
it,
to
Chinese ethnocultural nationalism is the result of
Domestically,
towards
the
corresponding
be
from
orient
territorialization
pragmatism
of
Deng
Xiaoping
the state. It further brought economic disparity and demographic decline to China. The revival of Maoism and rise of ethnocultural nationalism under Xi Jinping seeks to address China’s societal problems while providing a unifying identity to the Chinese based on ethnicity, culture, and history. This identity is existentially opposed to Western
liberalism. China’s aggressiveness under Xi Jinping arises from its desire for international recognition,
57
need
for
security
from
future
threats,
and
ethnic minorities will generally drive foreign
opposition to Western culture. China’s internal
aggression. Ethnic minorities actually support
ethnic strife arises from feelings of not belonging
foreign aggression more than ethnic Russians. They
on the part of the minorities and desires for unity
manage to be proud patriots and proud of their
and assimilation on the part of the Chinese
ethnic heritage (Alexseev, 2016). Russia’s particular
Communist Party. China’s authoritarian order and
ethnocultural conception of nationalism manages
ethnocultural consciousness will seek their own
to include ethnic minorities within the framework
elevation and the protection of their pseudo-
of a larger Russian world (russkii mir) (Blakkisrud,
imperial body.
2016). This conception is externally oriented towards Russia’s place in the world in opposition to the West (Laruelle, 2016). For this conception to
Conclusion The
research
provide unity and stability, Russia must focus on hypothesis
was
that
ethnic
nationalism will drive aggressive foreign politics, but the presence of legacy ethnic minorities will
foreign affairs and fighting the “Other.” Therefore, Russia’s aggressiveness in foreign affairs will continue as the best way to deal with ethnic strife.
restrain the scope of aggression. Ethnic nationalism
In China’s case, ethnic minorities may restrain the
did drive aggressive foreign politics in both Russia
state’s aggression as long as the resources required
and China. Both cases are premised on the regain
to deal with ethnic minorities reduces the resources
of
aggressive
required for foreign aggression. China’s foreign
assertion of international status and interests. In
program of economic aid and military buildup is
Russia’s case, the fall of the Soviet Union and the
expensive (Nguyen, 2019). Many of its ethnic
Yeltsin years were a blow to Russian power and
minorities do not feel a sense of belonging to the
prestige. The state increased its power under Putin
Chinese state (Leibold, 2016; Turdush, 2019). The
before aggressively asserting its status and interests
accommodation
in opposition to the established system in the
repression or appeasement, is expensive as well
annexation
nationalism
(Leibold, 2013). At this time, however, it does not
complemented, even drove, state growth in power
appear that the expense of dealing with ethnic
and helped to justify its actions in Crimea (Kolstø,
minorities inhibits China’s ability to extend its
2016; Pain, 2016). In China’s case, the century of
power internationally. The additional costs may
humiliation brought China from the world’s apex to
reduce its willingness to go to war though. Also, if
its base. The state laid low and increased its power
China is able to meaningful reintroduce the idea of
before asserting its status and interests. Popular
the Chinese Nation (zhonghua minzu) or adopt a
nationalism again complemented the state’s growth
Han-centric civilizational approach similar to
in power before motivating the state towards
Russia’s nationalism, then ethnic conflict in China
certain
could be reduced, freeing resources for foreign
national
strength
of
followed
Crimea.
international
by
Popular
and
domestic
policies
of
these
ethnicities,
whether
(Callahan, 2004; Che, 2020; Leibold, 2016).
aggression (Kuan, 2019).
In Russia’s case, it is unlikely that ethnic minorities
Ethnic
will restrain the state’s aggression. In fact, Russian
humiliation drives foreign aggression to regain
nationalism
in
response
to
national
national honor. The ability for ethnic minorities to
58
John Jay Journal of International Affairs
restrain foreign aggression is dependent upon their patriotism and feeling of belonging to the state or civilizational concept. Additional avenues for research include the dynamic between popular nationalism and state policies, opposition to the West in the rise of ethnic nationalism, and specific manifestations of the process of humiliation, isolation, regain of strength, and foreign aggression
in relation to ethnic nationalism. Regardless, the West should be cautious about intervening— whether politically, economically, militarily, or culturally—in other countries. It may very well leave an impression of oppression and create its own rival.
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