3. Drivers of Retail Demand in Northeast Pioneer Square – Population, Employees, and Visitors

Residents, employees, and visitors are the primary drivers of retail demand. With over 15,000 workers employed in the Secondary Market Area, Northeast Pioneer Square is dominated by employment uses and the retail market has developed in response to the demand of the area’s large employee concentration

However, after the pandemic, many of these employees shifted to remote work and have not returned to their places of work. The most recent data indicate employee presence in Northeast Pioneer Square is less than a third of what it was in January 2019 (see Exhibit 9). In addition, about 50 percent of these workers are employed by the government, with many working at the King County Civic Campus. The in-progress King County Civic Campus Master Plan process could result in major shifts in the King County civic campus, meaning that the large concentration of government employees in Northeast Pioneer Square could be moved to other areas of the city potentially losing a large number of employees. While the absence of these employees strains the existing retail environment, it also leaves opportunities for new uses such as mixed-use residential development to possibly replace the King County buildings and land. In this case, the new residential households would still demand a variety of retail services close to where they live.

In contrast to its large employee population, the resident population in Northeast Pioneer Square is quite small. According to the most recent data (see Exhibit 2), the Primary Market Area had a population of less than a 1,000 people, underscoring the importance of employee presence, visitation to the area, and investments in housing at all income levels, to support the local retail market. In addition, people who live in Northeast Pioneer Square tend to earn lower incomes than those who work there. Residents living in the Primary Market Area, on average, earned below the Seattle median household income ($110,781 in 2021).

Because the daytime employee population was the largest compared to visitors and residents employees were the primary drivers of retail demand in the Northeast Pioneer Square area. Visitors and residents of the area also generate retail demand, but to a smaller degree compared to employee demand. Unlike employee presence, the most recent data indicate that visitation 2 to the Northeast Pioneer Square area has largely recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. The residential population, however, has experienced little growth in the last decade.

2 According to Placer.ai, “A visit is triggered when a panel cellphone scans for a Bluetooth or WiFi signal two consecutive times in a five- to fifteen-minute period. The period between scans depends on the user phone’s Operating System (OS). For example, an Android OS will scan for a WiFi signal every three to seven minutes.”