Passenger Rail Options for Polk County

A tec hnical repor t for

Passenger Rail Options For Polk County f o r t h e Po l k C o u n t y Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g O r g a n i z a t i o n

Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)

TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 Haines City

Auburndale Lakeland

March 26, 2014 Submitted by:

TECHNICAL REPORT PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

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Prepared by:

MARCH 26, 2014

PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................... 1 PURPOSE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 OVERVIEW...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 MATERIALS INVESTIGATED .......................................................................................................................................................... 2 APPROACH ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

THE VIABILITY FOR RAIL TRANSIT IN POLK COUNTY .............................................................. 3 TYPES OF RAIL TRANSIT ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 POLK COUNTY TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS.............................................................................................................................. 4 CONFLICTS WITH FREIGHT OPERATIONS ................................................................................................................................ 5 FLORIDA DOT’S FUTURE CORRIDORS PROGRAM .................................................................................................................. 6 LINKAGES BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE .................................................................................................... 6 PASSENGER RAIL STATION AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 7

ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENTS AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS .............................................. 23 1. EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ...............................................................................................................23 2. CONNECTING TO TBARTA/TAMPA BAY ...........................................................................................................................25 3. REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES ..........................28 4. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO CBD .......................................................................................................29 5. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ................................................................30 6. POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF ALL ABOARD FLORIDA ...........................................................................................................31 7. HIGH SPEED RAIL ....................................................................................................................................................................32 8. AMTRAK ....................................................................................................................................................................................34 9. EXPRESS BUS CONNECTION TO SUNRAIL ........................................................................................................................34 10. I-4 BUS RAPID TRANSIT ALTERNATIVE ..............................................................................................................................34 11. INTRA-POLK CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................................................35

ACTIONS TO PRESERVE FUTURE OPTIONS FOR PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE ......................... 37 1. FURTHER STUDY OF EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ..........................................................................37 2. PLAN FOR AN EXPRESS BUS FEEDER SYSTEM TO THE SUNRAIL POINCIANA STATION ...........................................37 3. JOIN TBARTA ...........................................................................................................................................................................38 4. PLAN FOR PREMIUM TRANSIT IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR .....................................................................................................38 5. CONTINUED APPLICATION OF REGULATIONS THAT PROMOTE TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE DEVELOPMENT.............38 6. REMAIN ENGAGED IN CSX FREIGHT RELOCATION STUDIES ........................................................................................38 7. REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL AT SOME FUTURE DATE .................................................38

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LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 – TEN MINUTE DRIVE-SHEDS FOR POLK COUNTY PASSENGER RAIL STATIONS .......................................................................... 8 FIGURE 2 - 2010 ACTIVITY UNIT (JOBS+POPULATION) PER ACRE BY TAZ...........................................................................................10 FIGURE 3 - 2035 ACTIVITY UNIT (JOBS+POPULATION) DENSITY BY TAZ.............................................................................................11 FIGURE 4 - STATION DRIVESHED ACTIVITY UNIT DENSITY.......................................................................................................................13 FIGURE 5 - SUMMARY OF THE PERCENTAGE OF THE WORKERS WHO RESIDE IN POLK STATION AREAS BY PLACE OF DESTINATION .......16 FIGURE 6 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF ALL STATION AREAS ........................................17 FIGURE 7 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE LAKELAND MARKET AREA...........................18 FIGURE 8 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE AUBURNDALE MARKET AREA ......................19 FIGURE 9 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE HAINES CITY MARKET AREA .......................20 FIGURE 10 - EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ...................................................................................................................23 FIGURE 11 - A SUNRAIL ENGINE (SOURCE: HTTP://CORPORATE.SUNRAIL.COM/WELCOME/PAGE/BROCHURES) ..................................24 FIGURE 12 - TBARTA TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY RAIL ..........................................................................................................................27 FIGURE 13 - REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES ...........................................28 FIGURE 14 - I-4 REGIONAL RAIL TO DOWNTOWN ORLANDO .............................................................................................................29 FIGURE 15 - I-4 REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT .............................................................................................30 FIGURE 16 – ALL ABOARD FLORIDA ROUTE MAP ..................................................................................................................................31 FIGURE 17 - FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY VISION MAP .......................................................................................................33

LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1- SUMMARY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC TAZ DATA FOR STATION MARKET AREA DRIVE-SHEDS .......................................................13 TABLE 2 - ORIGIN DESTINATION SUMMARY OF PLACE OF WORK OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS PER STATION AREA.............................15

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Introduction and Background Considerations

Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)

TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 Haines City

Auburndale Lakeland

PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND CONSIDERATIONS PURPOSE The primary purposes of this technical memorandum are three-fold: (1) to contribute an assessment of alternatives to on-going discussions and interest in possibilities to introduce passenger rail to Polk County; (2) to recommend immediate and short-term actions to preserve future options for passenger rail service; and (3) to provide guidance related to passenger rail opportunities as part of the upcoming 2040 update to the 2035 Mobility Vision Plan. A wide range of previous study efforts have been reviewed and opportunities and constraints related to the implementation of passenger rail service have been summarized. The findings of this document are the result of an independent assessment conducted by Renaissance Planning Group of these past efforts, existing and future conditions in Polk County and the decision-making, logistics, timing, scope and financial elements of pursuing the implementation of passenger rail.

OVERVIEW Polk County occupies a unique position along the I-4 corridor, with the major urbanized areas of Orlando to the east and the Tampa Bay region to the west. In addition, Polk County has its own medium-sized urban areas of Lakeland and Winter Haven and fifteen other municipalities, the largest of which are Bartow, Haines City, and Auburndale. These all contribute to a countywide population exceeding 620,000. While the majority of Polk County workers stay in the County for their employment, there are significant movements of people to and from the east (Orange and Osceola) and with Hillsborough to the west. Because of its prime location on the I-4 corridor, there are also many long distance trips that cross Polk County As Polk County has considered various transportation solutions, and as its neighbors to the east and west have explored solutions of their own, various regional transit alternatives involving passenger rail and bus service have become part of the discussion. This range of alternatives includes technologies, service characteristics and stop locations that serve very different potential markets.

Perhaps foremost and most immediate have been alternatives that link Polk County to central Florida’s SunRail System being constructed to serve Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola Counties and the City of Orlando. Connecting to SunRail would provide travel alternatives for the tens of thousands of people who move between Polk County and its neighbors to the north and east. Commuter rail, of which SunRail is an example, can serve a regional and local market, targeting work trip destinations and typically featuring stations two to three miles or more apart from each other. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan envisions extending SunRail into Polk County.

Other systems that have been suggested include regional rail solutions linking Orlando, Polk County, and the Tampa Bay region, with relatively few station locations. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan includes a rail connection to Hillsborough County, as also included in the TBARTA Master Plan. Some consideration also has been given to premium bus alternatives that might be an initial building block toward ultimate implementation of passenger rail. Bus rapid transit attempts to replicate many of the features of rail with rubber tired vehicles operating on conventional asphalt or concrete lanes.

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Still other alternatives that have been suggested include high speed rail and All Aboard Florida.

The Florida legislature created the Florida High Speed Rail Authority to plan and develop a Florida high speed rail system. All Aboard Florida is a private sector initiative to provide intercity passenger rail from Miami to Orlando, with intermediate stations in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. More information on both of these efforts is provided in the Alternative Alignments and Operational Concepts section of this memo below. These are designed primarily to serve intercity markets and might offer transportation options for Polk County residents to travel to Tampa, Orlando, Miami, and other more distant destinations. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan includes a rail spur connection from the CSX A Line to the then-proposed high speed rail station in the I-4 Corridor. Of course, Polk County currently has modest Amtrak service, which is oriented primarily to long-distance intercity trips.

MATERIALS INVESTIGATED A wide variety of sources were used to assemble information related to each of the alternatives.

This technical memorandum synthesizes and organizes information from these many sources to identify possible actions for the Polk Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) as it moves forward to plan for future transportation options. Among the sources reviewed were:  FDOT Rail Traffic Evaluation Study - Passenger Rail Options, Rail Relocation Options and other relevant documents  Polk Rail Study  The transit elements of the current Polk 2035 Mobility Vision Plan  The Polk Transit My Ride Transit Development Plan  SunRail planning documents  Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission Interlocal Funding Agreement  Interlocal Governance Agreement for the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission  Metroplan 2030 Long-Range Transportation Plan  The current service proposal for All Aboard Florida  Hillsborough County MPO 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan  Hillsborough Area Regional Transit (HART) plans  Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority (TBARTA) plans  A Framework for Transit Oriented Development in Florida  The US Census American Community Survey  The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics  Florida High Speed Rail Authority Investment Grade Ridership Study  Florida DOT Future Corridors Tampa Bay to Central Florida Study Area Concept Report APPROACH In the sections that follow, each of the broad alternatives are described and evaluated in terms of the associated opportunities and constraints. As appropriate to the individual alternative, specific elements that are considered include: demand expectations; station location possibilities; transit oriented development opportunities; conflicts with rail freight operations; and institutional considerations.

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The Viability For Rail Transit in Polk County

Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)

TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 Haines City

Auburndale Lakeland

PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

THE VIABILITY FOR RAIL TRANSIT IN POLK COUNTY This section breaks down the concept of passenger rail in Polk County into several areas of consideration for the viability of initiating rail transit service. The section begins by defining passenger rail transit types and introducing a number of topics that relate to opportunity, viability and potential conflict. This information is followed by a demand assessment of the existing and potential future market for passenger rail in Polk County. While not an exhaustive demand-side analysis, the findings reveal a number of key points relating to the timing of initiating service and the most fruitful potential areas to serve.

TYPES OF RAIL TRANSIT There are a number of different types of rail and bus transit. Each type has its own purpose, appropriate context and operational characteristics. The descriptions below provide some basic context for the remainder of this report, including the demand analysis and the alternatives presented in the next section. Commuter rail is the transit technology envisioned for Polk County for the purposes of this demand analysis. Other transit modes and technologies are presented as alternatives for providing regional transit service that connects Polk to other counties.

Commuter Rail

Commuter rail primarily serves rush hour trips connecting workers outside of the core of the urban area with major job centers and central cities. SunRail in Orlando and TriRail in Miami are examples of this technology. The service is cost effective relative to other types of rail transit as it typically runs in existing rail rights-of-way. The trains are typically powered by a diesel locomotive and include one or more passenger rail cars. The capacity of commuter rail service is very flexible as numerous rail cars can be added. Considering that more than one train can run per hour, capacity can vary based on need from several thousand passengers per hour to around 20,000 passengers per hour. Maximum speeds for this type of service depend on the rating of the rail the trains operate on, but typically range between 45 and 65 miles per hour. Average speeds depend on the number of stops on the route. Lengths of routes for existing services around the country vary, but typically fall in the 20 to 80 mile range.

High Speed Rail

The primary purpose of high speed rail is intercity travel. The systems run on exclusive right-ofway and must operate on tracks designed for the speeds the trains are capable of, which is up to 200 miles per hour. Capacity considerations are similar to commuter rail. High speed rail service can span very long distances and is most successful around the world where it connects cities that are high density, walkable and served by major urban transit systems.

Conventional Intercity Rail

This type of rail serves intercity travel and has a very small commuter component. Most of this type of service in the U.S. is operated by Amtrak. The number of trains per day precludes this service from being used for daily regional trips.

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Light Rail and Heavy Rail

These technologies are not included in the presentation of alternatives in this report. Both serve highly urbanized areas and are very expensive to implement. Light rail is powered by an overhead electric catenary and can operate within street rights-of-way or on separate tracks.

Examples of this technology can be found in Dallas, Portland, Minneapolis, Charlotte among other places. Heavy rail is powered by a third rail and thus has to operate in exclusive right-of-way than does not allow for grade crossings. Examples of this technology can be found in New York, Washington DC, Chicago and Atlanta.

Express Bus

This type of service is oriented toward longer commutes. The service typically has limited stops and routes that are 10 to 25 miles long. Some express routes are longer, but they usually require some level of coordination and cost sharing among a number of jurisdictions. Capacity of bus service is limited to around 40 persons per vehicle. The reason this type of service is important to the rail transit discussion is that bus service in a corridor typically precedes the development of rail in a corridor. This is especially true where federal funds are sought for major rail investment projects. Bus alternatives are presented in this report for this reason and because bus is a viable alternative to some types of rail service.

POLK COUNTY TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS To consider the desirability of any options, it is necessary to first understand the travel origins and destinations of trips in and out of Polk County. While different rail alternatives may differ in their ability to attract riders, it is first appropriate to examine the total movement of people through Polk County. There are a number of sources that can be used to understand the movement of people in and through Polk County. Two sources, the American Community Survey and the Longitudinal Employer-Household Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) contain useful information about trips between home and work. Although these typically account for only about a third of all trips, they constitute the majority of peak period travel.

American Community Survey Data

The American Community Survey is an annual survey of approximately 2.5 percent of U.S. households. For meaningful statistical reliability, a three-year aggregation is necessary for county level data, and a five-year aggregation for census tract data. The ACS, taken averaged over the period 2006 to 2010, shows 18,550 Polk County residents working in Orange County; 12,200 in Hillsborough County; 8,000 in Osceola County; and 1,330 in Lake County. The reverse flow directions are also interesting, with 1,665 Orange County residents; 10,265 Hillsborough County residents; 2,060 Osceola County residents; and 1,345 Lake County residents working in Polk County. So while the work flows between Polk County and Hillsborough and Lake Counties are relatively balanced, the work flows to Orange and Osceola Counties are quite pronounced with many more people leaving Polk County for work. The ACS estimates that 191,985 Polk County residents work within Polk County.

The American Community Survey also reports travel mode to work by county. For 2006 to 2010, data for Polk County indicated work trip modes as: March 26, 2014

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     

80.7 percent drove alone 11.7 percent carpool 0.5 percent used public transportation 1.2 percent walked 2. 6 percent used taxi, motorcycle or other means, and 3.1 percent worked at home.

As indicated, work trip transit use in Polk County is very small, at 0.5 percent, or 1,250 persons.

For the most recent year, 2012, the percent is slightly higher, at a little over 0.6 percent. Fixed route transit ridership in Polk County for all purposes totaled 1,670,000 trips in 2011. With service provided Mondays through Saturdays, this would translate to approximately 5,600 trips per day, with over half being for non-work purposes. This ridership is somewhat reflective of the modest current availability of transit in Polk County. Plans to substantially upgrade the level of transit service can definitely be expected to increase the amount of transit usage.

Longitudinal Employer-Household Origin-Destination Statistics (LODES) Data

The LODES data is not a survey, but rather is a compilation from federal administrative records. It links residence location to work location by matching social security numbers of payroll records. It includes all employment subject to state unemployment insurance laws. So it does not include self employed and sole proprietors; federal, military, and railroad workers; and other employees who are exempt from unemployment insurance laws. In general it is reported that the LODES data includes about 90 percent of U.S. workers, though in certain locations it could be a much smaller percentage. Another limitation of the LODES data is that employers with multiple job locations sometimes report all employees at the central office. This can be particularly problematic with organizations like school board employees or in some cases employers with multiple locations but one administrative center. With these limitations understood, the LODES data can still be useful for depicting general proportions of trip movements.

As might be expected, compared to the American Community Survey, the LODES data shows significantly higher proportions of Polk residents working outside the County, with 27,371 in Orange County; 19,837 in Hillsborough County; 6,205 in Osceola County; and 2,328 in Lake County. In the reverse direction, it shows 6,291 Orange County residents; 15,133 Hillsborough County residents; 4,182 Osceola County residents; and 2,466 Lake County residents working in Polk County.

CONFLICTS WITH FREIGHT OPERATIONS The negotiations with CSX that enabled the SunRail project to move forward relocated significant CSX train movements from the A Line to the S Line. This served a positive purpose of allowing SunRail to operate over sections that were previously heavily used by CSX freight movements. In addition to the currently-planned SunRail alignment, it also resulted in reduction in train movements as far west as Auburndale. In so doing, it created additional train movements between Auburndale and Lakeland.

To address concerns of increased train movements through downtown Lakeland, FDOT District One undertook their 2009 Florida DOT Rail Traffic Evaluation Study to explore options for relocating March 26, 2014

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freight movements in central Florida and also to examine future passenger rail alternatives. The study included eight freight relocation alternatives, seven of which would reduce freight movements on the A-Line as far west as Lakeland. The report indicated that the capital costs associated with the relocation alternatives are very high, ranging from $639 million to $1.3 billion. It also reported that for all the alternatives the environmental impacts are high, with impacts to the Green Swamp, taking of recreational trails, likely involvement of 4(f) lands, and community impacts. While some of the alternatives reduce train activity through downtown Lakeland, they generally do it at the expense of increased train activity through other municipalities, which have voiced their own concerns.

Following this study, the FDOT identified two additional alternatives and evaluated the potential effects to natural, cultural and community resources of each alternative using Florida’s Efficient Transportation Decision Making (ETDM) process, in coordination with State and Federal environmental resource agencies.

In 2012, the Polk Rail Study was initiated to further examine the ten freight rail alternatives though a detailed planning, engineering and funding analysis. Of the ten alternatives, three were considered most viable to maintain regional freight movement while minimizing impacts to the community and the environment. These three long-term alternatives were identified for a future Project Development and Environment (PD&E) Study. The study also identified short-term solutions to be advanced for funding prioritization and implementation.

FLORIDA DOT’S FUTURE CORRIDORS PROGRAM For several years the Florida DOT has been engaged in the Future Corridors Initiative, which is a statewide effort to plan for new corridors and improvements to existing corridors to be able to meet the transportation needs 50 years into the future. The I-4 Corridor is a major piece of the Tampa Bay-Central Florida Super-Regional Corridor, which extends from the Tampa Bay Region, through Polk County, to Orlando, and on to the Space Coast of Florida.

FDOT’s five point plan for moving forward includes developing an integrated strategy for transforming I-4 to include consideration of a variety of managed lane alternatives, which could include toll lanes, truck lanes, bus rapid transit and reversible lanes. It also includes developing long term strategies to enhance passenger and freight rail service in the corridor. FDOT specifically cites a passenger rail connection between Tampa and Orlando as something that should remain part of the long term vision for the corridor. The planning efforts that have occurred in Polk County are totally supportive of FDOT’s Future Corridors Program.

LINKAGES BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE Integrating transportation and land use is a critical consideration to the development of longrange transportation plans. Low density sprawling suburban subdivisions necessitate a hierarchy of roads and highways to serve land uses that are not economical to serve by public transportation. As land uses become denser and feature mixes of land uses, the provision of public transportation services becomes more feasible.

The Polk County Comprehensive Plan clearly recognizes the importance of transportation and land use integration as it includes some very creative elements of transit supportive development March 26, 2014

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areas (TSDA). The Plan provides for density incentives for development in proximity to transit service. The increases in density allowance are tied to location near or in a designated transit center. To earn a TSDA designation, a development must: provide access to transit facilities; incorporate design features that promote healthy communities; implement “complete street� features; integrate pedestrian-oriented features, including sidewalks, trails or walkways; provide high connectivity; and include a variety of housing choices including high density choices.

PASSENGER RAIL STATION AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS Approach

A demand analysis was conducted to assess the potential demand for ridership from potential Polk County passenger rail station areas. The approach first defined a realistic travel-shed, larger than a pedestrian realm that would be representative of the market area for a given station. Second, an assessment of the 2010 and 2035 socio-economic makeup of each of these station area market areas and how they compare with the FDOT TOD Framework was conducted.

The last step of the demand analysis evaluated station area travel characteristics in terms of origins and destinations of Polk County residents to their place of employment, and specifically to target rail destination areas in downtown Tampa and Orlando. These demand analysis steps are described below along with some key observations.

Defining Station Market Areas

Three station areas were identified for Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City, representing three population and employment centers, approximately ten miles apart along the rail alignment in Polk County. Automobile drive-times along the road network were calculated in GIS using network analyst, and the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) were intersected with these drive-sheds to associate relative five and ten minute drive times with certain TAZs. Figure 1 – Ten Minute Drivesheds for Polk County Passenger Rail Stations is a map of the TAZs for each station area that fell within either the five and ten minute drive-shed of one of the stations. A ten minute drive roughly equates to a five mile diameter radius, and represents a reasonable short-drive market demand area serving each station. Using a drive-shed larger than ten minutes results in more overlap between stations. The market for a commuter rail station is larger than a typical TOD walk/bike shed, and represents a short drive time. Drive times longer than ten minutes, though possible, begin to erode the efficiencies of a combined auto-rail commute trip.

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Figure 1 – Ten Minute Drive-sheds for Polk County Passenger Rail Stations March 26, 2014

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Socio-Economic Makeup of Station Areas: 2010 and 2035

The activity unit densities of Polk County TAZs were evaluated for 2010 and 2035 model socioeconomic data to determine where there might be densities that meet the density thresholds for premium transit as outlined in “A Framework for Transit Oriented Development in Florida� (FDOT, March 2011). Activity units are a combination of jobs and population, sometimes referred to as the 24-hour population. The target density thresholds for Neighborhood Center commuter rail per the FDOT TOD Framework are between 9-12 units/acre of either housing or employment for commuter rail transit type and 12-15 for the heavy rail. Figure 2 and Figure 3 show activity unit per acre densities for TAZs in Polk County. The bright red colors on these maps indicates at least a unit density of between 9 and 15, which is appropriate for commuter rail for a Neighborhood Center place type, which is the place type that correlates most with the population centers currently in Polk County. The black and brightest reds represents densities that could possibly support commuter rail transit. These activity unit density maps include, in red, the boundaries of the ten minute drive-shed of the potential passenger rail station areas in Polk County.

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Figure 2 - 2010 Activity Unit (Jobs+Population) Per Acre by TAZ March 26, 2014

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Figure 3 - 2035 Activity Unit (Jobs+Population) Density by TAZ March 26, 2014

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The analysis indicates that there are areas in the station market sheds that approach densities to support commuter rail, as indicated by the black and brightest reds in Figure 2 and Figure 3. This prevalence of higher density TAZs is especially true in the Lakeland station area, somewhat true in the Auburndale station area, which includes downtown and other parts of Winter Haven, and less true in the Haines City station area. The socio-economic summary of each station area is presented in Table 1. A comparison of the activity unit densities in those station areas to the FDOT TOD Framework threshold of 9 units/acre is shown in Figure 4. The Figure shows the densities in the rightmost column of the Table above. There are many individual TAZs in the station drive-sheds that exceed densities supportive of commuter rail. However, the average gross activity unit densities are below the 9-12 unit/acre range for commuter rail in a neighborhood center place type in the FDOT Framework for TOD. Lakeland has the highest average gross density at 5.8 activity units per acre in 2035. It should be noted that station areas in the FDOT TOD Framework were based on a half-mile radius area, while the 10 minute drive-shed for the commuter rail stations is considerably larger, approaching a five mile radius. Therefore, densities can be expected to be on order of magnitude less. It is therefore important to view the potential total activity units (sum of population and employment) served under each station’s market area, which range between 119,997-305,838 per station area drive-shed in year 2035. The total potential activity units for the entire Polk County station market areas are over half a million in 2035. These numbers represent a high latent ridership demand of people and jobs that may utilize passenger rail in the future.

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10 Min Driveshed

52,300 Acres

Lakeland

Population and Employment Totals Year 2010 2035

Employment Population 89,574 116,119 122,269 183,569

Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)

Activity Units Employment 205,693 1.7127 305,838 2.3378

Auburndale

10 Min Driveshed

Employment Population 44,167 69,998 55,152 88,800

Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)

Activity Units Employment 114,165 0.8445 143,952 1.0545

Haines City

10 Min Driveshed

Employment Population 20,170 52,589 32,265 87,732

All Stations in Polk

Activity Unit Density 2.6824 3.3822

Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)

Activity Units Employment 72,759 0.3857 119,997 0.6169

10 MinDriveshed

Popluation 1.0564 1.7623

Activity Unit Density 1.4616 2.4105

142,825 Acres

Population and Employment Totals Year 2010 2035

Popluation 1.6446 2.0864

49,782 Acres

Population and Employment Totals Year 2010 2035

Activity Unit Density 3.9329 5.8477

42,561 Acres

Population and Employment Totals Year 2010 2035

Popluation 2.2202 3.5099

Employment Population 152,197 236,847 206,993 357,992

Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)

Activity Units 389,044 564,985

Employment 1.0656 1.4493

Population 1.6583 2.5065

Activity Unit Density 2.7239 3.9558

Table 1- Summary of Socio-economic TAZ Data for Station Market Area Drive-sheds

Activity Unit Density/Acre

Station Driveshed Activity Unit Density 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

Lakeland

Auburndale Haines City 2010

All Stations

Threshold for Rail

2035

Figure 4 - Station Driveshed Activity Unit Density March 26, 2014

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Origin-Destination Summary of Polk Resident’s Place of Work

The American Community Survey data presented in the previous travel characteristics section observed that a majority of Polk County residents have their place of employment within the county. To better understand where the residents of the specific station market area were commuting to work, the US Census LODES employment database was queried for place of work for selection areas for each of the station drive-sheds and one for all Polk station area sheds combined. Five station area polygons were then drawn to represent potential rail destinations in downtown Tampa and Orlando to identify the draw of specific destinations for Polk County commuters, and distinguish them from Orange or Hillsborough County as general destinations. All these data queries, as well as destination rail polygon are illustrated in the place of work employment density maps below (Figure 6 through Figure 9), and are summarized in Table 2.

The conclusions that can be drawn from the numbers in Table 2 do not make a compelling present day argument for a strong commuter linkage between Polk County residents and the five rail destination areas identified for downtown Tampa and Orlando based on commuter travel alone.

The column to the left identifies workplace destinations of Polk County residents living within the indicated station areas. The cells that are outlined in the far right column of Table 2 show the percent of total for all station areas. Only 0.6% of all Polk County station area residents commute to downtown Tampa rail destinations; and only 0.8% of Polk County station area residents commute to downtown Orlando rail destinations. Hillsborough and Orange County are popular places of work for Polk County station area residents at 10.6% and 9.4% of total, but these are large counties, and these places of work are not within an easy walk of a destination rail station making them more likely to be auto-dependent trips. The majority of station area residents (55.7%) have their place of work in Polk County.

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Destination Summary Destination - Place of Work Hardee County Highlands County Lake County Manatee County Okeechobee County Osceola County Pasco County Pinellas County Sumter County Hillsborough County Orange County Downtown Tampa Ybor City Total Tampa Dest Downtown Orlando Florida Hospital Sand Lake Total Orlando Dest Polk County Remaining Counties Total Workers Living in Polk

Origin of Workers by Place of Residence

Origin of Workers by Place of Residence - Percent Total

Auburndale

Haines City

Lakeland

All Stations

Auburndale

Haines City

Lakeland

All Stations

58 172 368 125 10 731 190 417 48 1,872 3,295 100 12 112 260 45 18 323 15,953 1,119

70 159 186 146 21 799 106 329 25 806 2,987 41 3 44 124 21 8 153 5,734 2,202

84 198 475 406 42 462 717 1,371 59 5,584 3,021 310 36 346 182 13 15 210 27,028 7,415

211 518 1,014 672 72 1,953 1,002 2,102 131 8,165 9,136 443 51 494 551 75 40 666 48,228 11,063

0.2% 0.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 2.9% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 7.3% 12.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 62.2% 5.9%

0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 5.6% 0.7% 2.3% 0.2% 5.7% 21.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 40.4% 17.1%

0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 2.9% 0.1% 11.7% 6.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 56.6% 15.1%

0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 2.4% 0.2% 9.4% 10.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 55.7% 12.8%

25,628

14,182

47,754

86,587

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Table 2 - Origin Destination Summary of Place of Work of Polk County Residents Per Station Area Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHN) OriginDestination Employment Statistics (LODES) (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).

Distance/Direction report for Counts and Density of Work Locations for Primary Jobs in Home Selection Area (2011 employment). Geography exports were census block points containing location of work by residence of a given Polk County 10 minute station area drive-shed.

The following notes further explain some of the sources and assumptions behind the origins and destinations summary reflected in Table 2.  Hillsborough County and Orange County numbers in the listing of all counties don’t include jobs in the rail station areas;  Station areas are defined by a drive-shed of 10 minutes to each station area. There is some minor overlap between adjacent station area drive-sheds;  The "All Stations" drive-shed eliminates overlap in drive-sheds between stations and treats the study area as one large station area; and  The LODES query results were summarized by Florida County, with five station area designation polygons created to target destination areas near passenger rail stations.

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Polk County, 55.7% Other , 23.0%

Orlando Rail Destinations, 0.8%

Tampa Rail Destinations, 0.6%

Orange County , 10.6%

Hillsborough County , 9.4%

Figure 5 - Summary of the Percentage of the Workers who Reside in Polk Station Areas by Place of Destination

Figure 6 through 8 below are employment density maps generated by the LODES queries for station area drive-sheds in Polk County. The red heat maps show the employment density of residents in a Polk County station area drive-shed. There are four maps in all, one for all stations combined and one for each of the three individual stations. The red labeled numbers on the maps represent the actual number of workers in an area that reside in the respective Polk County station area. The employment density maps are a visual representation of the figures summarized in Table 2, but they give a more nuanced and detailed indication of where people in Polk are travelling to for work, based on their closest passenger rail station. Again, it is evident from these maps that many who live in Polk County also work in the county, while there are clearly draws to employment areas east and west along the I-4 corridor for the more active areas of Orange and Hillsborough Counties.

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Figure 6 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of All Station Areas March 26, 2014

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Figure 7 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Lakeland Market Area March 26, 2014

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Figure 8 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Auburndale Market Area March 26, 2014

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Figure 9 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Haines City Market Area March 26, 2014

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PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

Key Observations

 The case for present day (2011 data) ridership potential from Polk station areas to rail destination areas in Tampa or Orlando is not strong based on the commuting patterns that don’t present high correlations. There are not that many people living in Polk County who currently drive to destinations within the rail station areas in Tampa (downtown Tampa and Ybor City) and Orlando (downtown Orlando, Florida Hospital, and Sand Lake), as summarized in Figure 4 above.  The future potential for latent ridership demand for Polk stations makes a more optimistic case for passenger rail in Polk County if one views the total activity units (jobs and people) who live or work within the market areas of a Polk County rail destination. By 2035, the projections estimate over half a million (564,985) jobs and people living and working within a short ten minute drive of the three Polk station areas. This represents a substantial body of potential ridership demand to and from rail destinations in the Orlando and Tampa areas, as well as between Polk County stations understanding that a majority of Polk County residents also work in the county.

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Alternative Alignments and Operational Concepts

Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)

TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 Haines City

Auburndale Lakeland

PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENTS AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS 1. EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY The creation of the SunRail commuter rail system in central Florida has gained a great deal of interest across the State. The completed system will span 61.5 miles from DeLand in Volusia County to Poinciana in Osceola County. The first segment set to open in 2014 will operate between DeBary to Sand Lake Road. A second phase, planned to open in 2016 will extend from DeBary to DeLand in the north and from Sand Lake Road to Poinciana in the south. It will operate double-decker passenger cars on 30 minute headways during morning and evening peak periods and on two hour headways during the middle of the day.

SunRail is investing heavily in high quality on-board passenger amenities, including accommodations for luggage, bicycles, wireless internet, and restrooms. Stations, which are owned by Florida DOT and operated and maintained by local governments, are designed to be comfortable and secure, but otherwise modest in construction cost. They will include platform canopies to provide shade from the sun, ticket vending machines to facilitate fare payment, water fountains, emergency phones and closed circuit cameras, and system announcement signs and speakers.

Figure 10 - Extension of SunRail into Polk County

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SunRail will operate with state of the art technology, including smart fare cards that use tap on/tap off technology. The base fare will be $2.00, with an addition $1.00 charge each time a county boundary is crossed.

The system will provide discounts for frequent riders, seniors, children and people with disabilities. Because the system is using smart fare cards, it would be feasible at some time in the future to implement more complex fare structures.

Figure 11 - A SunRail Engine (Source: http://corporate.sunrail.com/welcome/page/brochures)

The cost of the system includes $432 million to purchase the tracks from CSX and $615 million in Phase I capital costs, with a federal share of 50 percent and the remainder shared equally between the State of Florida and local governments. For the first seven years, the state will pay all operations and maintenance costs, with the local governments taking over 100 percent of the responsibilities in year eight.

When considering extension of SunRail into Polk County, there are two reasonable possibilities.

One would be an extension to a new station at Haines City. Depending on the station location, this would amount to an approximate 15 mile extension to the currently-planned 61.5 mile SunRail system. A practical advantage of this alternative is that there are only five freight trains per day, both presently and well into the future, on this segment of the CSX A Line. In support of commuter rail, the City Commission of Haines City recently passed a resolution requesting that SunRail consider future expansion to the City of Haines City and requesting Florida DOT to undertake necessary planning and environmental studies.

The other possibility would extend SunRail much further into Polk County and would include a new station in Auburndale and the existing downtown Lakeland Amtrak Station. Since there are currently 20 freight train movements per day west of Auburndale and an estimated 27 daily freight trains in 2030, operating passenger rail over these tracks would be significantly more difficult.

The FDOT Rail Evaluation Study notes that significant capital investments would be required, including new track with passing sidings from Lakeland to Auburndale, track improvements to Poinciana, stations with platforms and parking, and additional rail vehicles. It also notes resistance from CSX in allowing passenger rail on the rail section west of Auburndale.

Compared to year 2030 SunRail ridership estimates of 2,350 for the Poinciana Station, the 2009 FDOT Study estimated year 2030 boardings of 2,130 for a SunRail extension from Poinciana to Lakeland, with 673 in Haines City, 500 in Auburndale, and 273 in Lakeland. It also estimated 684 boardings from the SunRail Phases I and II stations traveling west and alighting at a Polk March 26, 2014

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County station. Finally, it estimated that 760 of the 2130 daily trips would be internal to Polk County.

Opportunities and Advantages

   

Provides travel alternative from Polk County to Osceola, Orlando and other locations.

Creates opportunities for transit oriented development at station areas.

Depending on length of extension, links several cities and towns within Polk County.

Makes use of existing right-of-way.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Requires an agreement with CSX to operate passenger rail on existing freight tracks.  Freight trains serving the CSX Winter Haven Intermodal Logistics Center will use portions of the A-line tracks from Auburndale to the west creating greater conflicts with potential passenger rail. It is estimated that west of Auburndale there will be 20 daily freight trains, growing to 27 by 2030, while east of Auburndale there would be five now and into the future.  Requires new track with passing sidings for passenger rail from Lakeland to Auburndale.  There are 31 grade crossings of the CSX A-Line in Polk County. While the addition of passenger rail would increase roadway delays at these locations, passenger trains would be short in contrast, so individual location delays would be relatively small.  Requires substantially modifying the existing Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission Interlocal Funding Agreement. This agreement requires the Orange County, Osceola County, Seminole County Volusia County, and the City of Orlando to assume all obligations of management, operations, maintenance beginning in year eight. In addition, each of the local government partners contributed significantly to the initial capital funding, in amounts ranging from $13.7 million from the City of Orlando to $46.2 million from Seminole County.

Presumably if SunRail was extended into Polk County, similar contributions and obligations

by Polk County would be anticipated.  Requires substantially modifying the existing Interlocal Governance Agreement for Creation of the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission, which establishes a governing board, a technical advisory committee, and a customer advisory committee. The Interlocal Governance Agreement also defines formulas for sharing of annual operating deficits by local governments based on the average respective shares of passengers embarking and disembarking at stations in each jurisdiction on a daily basis and during peak hours.  As a nuance of the agreement for sharing operating deficits, since they are prorated based on boarding and alighting passengers, member jurisdictions may find themselves subsidizing riders from adjacent jurisdictions, particularly since free parking is planned at park and ride stations. This effect could be especially noticeable near county boundaries, since there is a one dollar surcharge when a boundary is crossed.

2. CONNECTING TO TBARTA/TAMPA BAY The Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority (TBARTA) was created by the Florida Legislature in 2007 to develop and implement a Regional Transportation Master Plan for the seven-county West Central Florida region consisting of Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota Counties. At the time, Polk County had opted out of joining TBARTA, March 26, 2014

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as the financial obligations at the time were unclear. The Polk County TPO recently moved to seek to become a member of TBARTA. This will require changes to state statutes that created TBARTA. Presumably legislation will be introduced in 2014 to add Polk County to TBARTA. The existing statute that created TBARTA specifies membership on the TBARTA Board, which includes:  The Florida DOT District Secretary of either District One or District Seven, appointed by the Florida DOT Secretary;  An elected official appointed by each of the member county commissions—Polk County would want to have this same representation;  A representative of the West Central Florida MPO Chairs Coordinating Committee—of which Polk County is a member;  The mayor or mayor designee of the largest cities within the service areas of Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority and the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority;  A two-year rotating membership shared by Manatee and Sarasota Counties and served by a mayor or designee of the largest cities in those counties—Polk County would want to have some form of representation from either the newly integrated Polk Transit System or one or more of the largest cities, presumably Lakeland and Winter Haven; and  Four business representatives appointed by the Governor.

TBARTA has broad powers authorized under state statute. These powers include eminent domain, the ability to issue bonds, collect fares and tolls, accept grants, and to own and operate transportation infrastructure. When TBARTA was created it was appropriated an initial budget by the legislature. Subsequently, Governor Scott vetoed the continuation of TBARTA’s ability to rollover unexpended funds. As a result, TBARTA has been reliant on grants from FDOT and other agencies to undertake studies and to fund its operation. There have not been requirements for member governments to help to fund TBARTA. The statutes that created TBARTA do not address the prospect of assessing membership or per capita fees of its members.

The TBARTA Master Plan includes a long-distance commuter oriented rail connection to the east from Hillsborough County. The current alignment mapped onto the TBARTA Master Plan shows the rail operating along CSX tracks, separated from I-4, and entering Polk County in the Lakeland Area. It also shows express bus service operating in managed lanes on I-4. Given the interest in long term rail opportunities by TBARTA, it is prudent that Polk County become a full participant.

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Figure 12 - TBARTA Tampa to Polk County Rail

The 2009 FDOT Study estimated Year 2030 total ridership of 3,732 based on stations at Tampa Union Station, Mango/I-75, Plant City, County Line Road, and Lakeland. Of these, 341were estimated to originate in Lakeland or at County Line Road.

Opportunities and Advantages

   

Provides connections for travel between Polk County and Hillsborough County.

Strengthens economic linkages between the two counties.

Uses existing rights-of-way.

Creates potential opportunity for transit oriented development at station areas.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Requires legislature to change state statute to add Polk County to membership of TBARTA.  County would need to appoint representatives to the Authority and to its advisory committees.  Requires negotiation with CSX for use of tracks, or adjacent operation in CSX right-of-way on separate track.  Necessitates the creation of governance and financial agreements for operation of commuter rail between Hillsborough and Polk Counties.  May be infeasible due to increased freight traffic on CSX lines.  Currently 18 daily freight train movements west of Lakeland and 20 daily movements to the east of Lakeland.  The forecast for 2030 are 25 trains west of Lakeland and 27 east of Lakeland.  Large number of at grade crossings.  Need to construct adequate stations, platforms, parking.

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3. REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES The 2009 FDOT Rail Study also considered regional intercity rail service using the CSX A Line and existing Amtrak rail stations in Tampa, Lakeland, Kissimmee, and downtown Orlando. This alternative was not envisioned as specifically a commuter oriented service, rather as a multipurpose service that would operate on a consistent schedule across the time of day, with headways ranging from 90 to 150 minutes and a travel times from Lakeland to Tampa at 30 minutes and from Lakeland to Orlando at 60 minutes. Ridership for the year 2030 was estimated at 3,106 daily, including 1,231 daily boardings in Tampa, 734 in Lakeland, 456 in Kissimmee, and 685 in Orlando.

Figure 13 - Regional Tampa to Polk County to Orlando Regional Rail Using CSX Rail Lines

Opportunities and Advantages

    

Provides connections linking the four counties.

Strengthens economic linkages between the four counties.

Uses existing rights-of-way and stations.

Creates some opportunity for transit oriented development at station areas.

Provides connectivity similar to high speed rail at a fraction of the cost (albeit a lower quality of service).

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Constraints and Disadvantages

   

Limited stops within Polk County.

Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.

Requires careful coordination with SunRail operations.

Creates potentially problematic joint use of high volume freight lines west of Auburndale.

4. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO CBD As defined in the 2009 FDOT Rail Study, this option would operate similar to the previous one, but would make use of the I-4 median from Tampa to central Polk County, where a new connector would be built to tie into the CSX A Line near Auburndale. From there it would continue to Orlando. It would include new stations in downtown Tampa and along I-4 in Lakeland, but could use existing stations in Kissimmee and downtown Orlando. Estimated Year 2030 ridership would amount to 3,204, with 725 boardings in Polk County.

Figure 14 - I-4 Regional Rail to Downtown Orlando

Opportunities and Advantages

 Avoids use of heavily travelled CSX A Line west of Auburndale.  Takes advantage of I-4 right-of-way.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Limited stops within Polk County.  Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.

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 Requires careful coordination with SunRail operating schedules.  Comparatively unattractive for future transit oriented development with stations within limited access right-of-way.  FDOT is moving forward with implementation of plans for managed lanes on large sections of the I-4 medians. Once managed lanes are implemented it may be difficult to reclaim them for use by passenger rail.

5. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT This alternative from the 2009 FDOT Study has similar operating characteristics as the two preceding alternatives, but makes use of the I-4 median and the Orlando – Orange County Expressway Authority’s (OOCEA) Greeneway for the majority of its route. It would therefore require new stations in Lakeland, Orlando Airport, the Orange County Line, and downtown Tampa. Year 2030 daily ridership was estimated at 3,086, with 754 boardings in Polk County.

Figure 15 - I-4 Regional Rail to Orlando International Airport

Opportunities and Advantages

 Uses I-4 and OOCEA Greenway, minimizing (but not eliminating) the need for additional right-of-way.  Provides good access for Polk County residents to Orlando International Airport.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Limited stops within Polk County.

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 Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.  Comparatively unattractive for future transit oriented development with stations within limited access right-of-way.  If this alternative was to allow riders to transfer to SunRail and access Downtown Orlando, an expensive transfer station would be necessary.  FDOT is moving forward with implementation of plans for managed lanes on large sections of the I-4 medians. Once managed lanes are implemented, it may be difficult to reclaim them for use by passenger rail.

6. POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF ALL ABOARD FLORIDA All Aboard Florida is a private sector project being developed by Florida East Coast Industries to provide intercity passenger rail from Miami to Orlando, with intermediate stations in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. The system will use existing FEC tracks between Miami and Brevard County and new tracks from there to Orlando International Airport. They expect to operate hourly service from early morning to late evening, with a three hour travel time between Miami and Orlando.

All Aboard Florida will be a privately operated system that expects to operate at a Figure 16 – All Aboard Florida Route Map profit, including both passenger rail service and Image source: www.allaboardflorida.com associated station area development opportunities. The organization has been non-committal in the face of expressed desires to extend their service from Orlando to Tampa as it is a potential second phase of development.

Preliminary maps from All Aboard Florida do indicate potential future expansion to Jacksonville and Tampa. Should they ultimately extend to Tampa, Polk County should be in a position to advocate for a station of its own. Of course extension from Orlando to Tampa would need to find suitable rights-of-way in which to operate. It would seem that the most logical corridor would be in the I-4 right-of-way, which has already been preserved for future multimodal alternatives and would permit relatively high operating speeds.

Opportunities and Advantages

 Provides high speed travel to Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach.  Provides opportunities for station-area development associated with intercity travel, or possibly a major attraction in Polk County.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Limited stops within Polk County.

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 Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.  If station was located in I-4 right-of-way, opportunities for transit oriented development would be somewhat limited, though the limitations might be overcome.  Since All Aboard Florida is a private enterprise, Polk County, working jointly with Hillsborough County, would need to provide a strong case that there would be sufficient ridership and development opportunities for Florida East Coast Industries to warrant their investment.

7. HIGH SPEED RAIL The possibilities for high speed rail in Central Florida have a long history. High speed rail plans go back to the mid-1980s, and have experienced repeated stop-starts, including the passage and subsequent repeal of a state constitutional amendment to construct a high speed rail system.

When the State of Florida refused to accept federal funds for an initial Tampa to Orlando segment, it placed high speed rail in the I-4 corridor on the back burner for many years to come.

Previously, efforts had been underway to protect the median of the I-4 corridor as a route for high speed rail. However, depending on the desire of future Florida leadership, it could be quickly resurrected. If there is ever a high speed rail line between Tampa and Orlando, Polk County should be able to successfully receive a commitment for one (and only one) station.

Historically, there had been much discussion about the best location for a Polk County station. It is reasonable to assume that any future high speed rail station would be located in the I-4 corridor.

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Figure 17 - Florida High Speed Rail Authority Vision Map Source: http://www.floridabullettrain.com/fhsra/2_projectstatus.html

As part of the planning for high speed rail, the legislature had created a Florida High Speed Rail Authority to plan and develop a Florida high speed rail system. As proposed, the initial system would have had stations in Tampa, Lakeland, and several in the Orlando area, including Orlando International Airport. Two independent ridership forecasts were performed corroborating results.

Ridership forecasts for the Year 2025 showed total intercity ridership in range of 44,650 passengers per day. Of these, 14,250 would travel between Lakeland and Tampa and 12,300 between Lakeland and Orlando.

Opportunities and Advantages

 Provides greater accessibility to Tampa and Orlando.  As most recently proposed, provides easy access to Orlando International Airport.  If developed as part of a larger system, provides greater accessibility to additional high speed rail cities.  Provides opportunities for station-area development associated with intercity travel, or possibly a major attraction in Polk County.  With adequate circulator systems, enhances accessibility to Polk County attractions.  Anticipates much higher ridership, likely due to shorter travel times.

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Constraints and Disadvantages

   

Limited stops within Polk County.

Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.

Would need to overcome current political opposition.

Need to develop station area facilities, parking, and bus feeder service.

8. AMTRAK Amtrak operates intercity passenger transportation to many cities across the United States. Polk County is currently served by Amtrak stations in Lakeland and in Winter Haven. Lakeland is served by one train in each direction daily, with westbound service to Tampa at 11:38 a.m. and eastbound service departing at 5:35 p.m. Winter Haven is served by two trains in each direction daily. Southbound trains depart Winter Haven at 1:43 pm and 2:24 p.m. Northbound service departs Winter Haven at 12:10 p.m. and at 3:44 p.m. With this highly limited service, Amtrak provides a useful intercity service, but is impractical for normal every day trips. During FY 2013, there were 22,829 boardings and alightings in Lakeland and 22,025 in Winter Haven, translating to a daily total for Polk County slightly more than 120.

9. EXPRESS BUS CONNECTION TO SUNRAIL Polk Transit has recently added limited fixed route service between Poinciana and Haines City.

When SunRail Phase II opens to the Poinciana station, express bus service connections could be implemented from several park and ride locations in Polk County to the SunRail Poinciana station.

As envisioned, the express bus schedules would be time-coordinated with trains arriving and departing from Poinciana to minimize transfer time. When compared to a commuter rail extension, there are some opportunities and advantages and some constraints and disadvantages.

Opportunities and Advantages

 Ability to test demand for access to SunRail and as demand is demonstrated could build confidence in extending SunRail.  Development of park and ride locations in Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City.  Over time, could develop feeder routes to park and ride stations.  Avoidance of potentially challenging negotiations with CSX.  Limited additional infrastructure needed.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Lower opportunity for transit oriented development.  Lower perceived vehicle amenity than passenger rail.  May require agreement with Osceola County to assist with SunRail operating subsidy and to allow shuttle bus operation at Poinciana station.

10. I-4 BUS RAPID TRANSIT ALTERNATIVE The County could pursue the implementation of premium bus transit in the I-4 corridor connecting to Orlando and Tampa. This alternative would likely require the creation of park and ride March 26, 2014

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facilities in proximity to I-4. To maintain the highest performance, I-4 park and ride locations should be limited in number so that trip travel time can be minimized.

Opportunities and Advantages

 Can be phased in as an express bus system using existing traffic lanes, albeit subject to the same delays as auto traffic.  As managed lanes are implemented in the I-4 corridor, premium bus rapid transit could be included.  Provide a demand benchmark for premium transit. If warranted by high utilization, transition to passenger rail could be considered at some time in the future.  Potential for connections to amusement park and tourism-related employment that is not well served by SunRail alignment.

Constraints and Disadvantages

 Would not be expected to create the same level of transit oriented development opportunities as a passenger rail system might.  Operation in I-4 corridor further dampens potential for transit oriented development.

11. INTRA-POLK CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES Several of these rail alternatives can add opportunities for travel between Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City. These could supplement the service provided by the Polk Transit bus system service The My Ride Consolidated Transit Development Plan recommends significant upgrades to intra-county service, including premium BRT in selected locations. Polk County would be well served by the improved bus system as the backbone for intra-county services, which in the long run could be supplemented by passenger rail.

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Actions to Preserve Future Options For Passenger Rail Service

Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)

TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 Haines City

Auburndale Lakeland

PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

ACTIONS TO PRESERVE FUTURE OPTIONS FOR PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE There are a number of actions that could be taken to facilitate future implementation of passenger rail in Polk County. While current travel desires between Polk County and Orlando or Polk County and the Tampa Bay Region may not be sufficient to justify major investments in new rail infrastructure in the immediate timeframe, there are actions the County could take to incrementally develop long term passenger rail as part of the mix of transportation solutions.

1. FURTHER STUDY OF EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY The interest expressed in extending SunRail to Haines City merits further investigation. Existing and projected freight movements on this section are modest. In addition, demand estimates included in the 2009 FDOT Study show the highest potential demand from Haines City and eastern Polk County.

The County might consider undertaking a two-phase study effort first focusing on the extension of SunRail to Haines City and subsequently extending beyond Haines City to Auburndale and Lakeland. As noted earlier, west of Auburndale the conflicts with freight rail traffic are much more severe.

The study would identify physical infrastructure needed to accomplish an extension, including station facilities, park and ride facilities, and track improvements. It would also explore operating agreements with CSX and would forecast ridership demand for possible SunRail extensions.

Implementation of a feeder bus system to the Poinciana SunRail station, as described earlier, would provide an early benchmark of the ridership potential.

2. PLAN FOR AN EXPRESS BUS FEEDER SYSTEM TO THE SUNRAIL POINCIANA STATION An action that could be taken in the near future would be to implement an express bus feeder system to connect selected locations in Polk County to the planned Poinciana SunRail station. The feeder buses would operate in an express mode between park and ride lots in Lakeland, Auburndale, Haines City, and possibly other locations, connecting to SunRail in Poinciana. To maximize customer convenience, the feeder bus schedule would be tied directly to the SunRail timetable so that time lost transferring to and from SunRail would be minimized. The County would need to create new park and ride facilities or make use of existing parking supply. Conceivably these could be created by negotiating joint use at major retail or big box store locations. The feeder bus connection could be included in the program of projects to support the upcoming transit referendum.

The County also should initiate discussions with SunRail and with Osceola County to deal with institutional issues that may arise from operating feeder bus service to Poinciana station.

Arrangements may need to be made to accommodate a feeder bus drop-off location at the station. After the first seven years of operation, when responsibilities turn over to the local governments, Polk County might be expected to participate in cost sharing. Timing for this effort is perfect. Polk County’s planning for implementation of a feeder bus operation could be ready for the projected opening of the Poinciana station in 2016. This operation would provide a means to demonstrate rider demand for a SunRail extension into Polk County.

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PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

3. JOIN TBARTA As noted in the introduction, Polk County has a unique position on the I-4 Corridor, with major urbanized areas to the east and to the west. For Polk County to take maximum advantage of regional collaboration to the west, it would be advantageous for Polk County to be included in the planning activities of TBARTA. Changes to the legislation that created TBARTA to add Polk County as a member are currently being pursued with members of the Polk County legislative delegation. As noted in an earlier section, Polk County will want to be fully engaged to assure equitable representation as the TBARTA statute is amended to add Polk County.

4. PLAN FOR PREMIUM TRANSIT IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR The median of I-4 is a valuable resource for future implementation of intercity transit alternatives.

Florida DOT is currently developing plans for the application of managed lanes in portions of the I-4 corridor. As that is being developed, opportunities to integrate BRT into managed lanes should be explored. This might start out as BRT and evolve into a commuter rail system and even to an ultimate intercity high speed rail system. Use of the I-4 corridor is attractive for its right-of-way availability and for its functionality for transportation purposes.

5. CONTINUED APPLICATION OF COMPREHENSIVE PLAN REGULATIONS THAT PROMOTE TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE DEVELOPMENT As noted earlier, the Polk County Comprehensive Plan includes policies that recognize the importance of integrating land use and transportation development and promoting attractive density that can support future development of public transportation choices. The future viability of public transportation in Polk County will be heavily reliant on the ability to promote these types of development. The continued promotion of the County’s transit supportive development areas (TSDA), which provide for density incentives for development in proximity to transit service, can do much to enhance the future viability of all transit alternatives, including passenger rail.

6. REMAIN ENGAGED IN CSX FREIGHT RELOCATION STUDIES Polk County should maintain participation in on-going studies of freight line relocations. If additional freight movements are relocated, particularly through Lakeland, they may open additional opportunities for further passenger rail. In the process of assessing freight rail relocations, passenger rail service should be an important consideration in the evaluation.

7. REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL AT SOME FUTURE DATE As noted earlier, a high speed rail line operating in the I-4 corridor and serving destinations in Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando has been withdrawn from consideration by the State of Florida based on concerns of economic viability. Given the political nature of issues related to high speed rail in Florida, reinvigorating high speed rail planning is a possibility in the future. If that happens, Polk County will need to be prepared to identify a station location, complete with parking, transit, and development oriented to intercity rail.

March 26, 2014

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