Portugal’s Immigration Wave: Why now? Is there room for everyone? By Amy Kraushaar
If you immigrated in 2020, you’re one of an intimate group of 281,000,000 people who moved country around the globe, and part of just 3.6% of the world’s population1. While these numbers may sound very large or very tiny, immigration is a consistently growing trend, up 62% from 2000 to 2020. And, while the Covid pandemic has slowed immigration considerably, remote working norms are forecast to boost immigration even more … as soon as flight restrictions ease. Many countries with aging populations are eager to welcome immigrants as employees, taxpayers, consumers, and family-builders. The majority of the world’s immigrants are workers relocating for better income and employment opportunities. Other growing immigrant segments include students studying internationally, digital nomads, retirees seeking lower cost living, and more recently, people who have in common the desire and means to leave their current life and start another in a new country. Europe is the most popular place for immigrants, followed by North America2. The top destination country for immigrants in 2020 was the United States, followed by Germany, Saudi Arabia, the Russian Federation, and the UK. Historically, Portugal has not been a desirable immigration destination. Portugal has long had a migration imbalance, with three notable population declines since 1950: 19611973 pre-revolution colonial wars in Africa; 1982-1992 post-revolution instability (pre-European Economic Community); and the 2011-2016 financial crisis.
Decreasing population, combined with one of the lowest birth rates in Europe and one of the highest emigration rates (Portugal consistently ranks in the world’s top 20 country emigration rates) put Portugal on a precipitous path of population decline since 2009. Analysts projected that, without any demographic changes, Portugal’s population would shrink below the threshold of 10 million inhabitants, down 1.1 million people by 2050 to 9.1 million. Portuguese economists assessed that a population this low would threaten the country’s economic stability and viability. If you can’t easily grow your people, you need to import them. To combat the declining population forecast, Portugal developed a 2015-2020 Strategic Plan for Migration in 2014. Multiple strategies were put in place to encourage people to visit, return, and settle in Portugal. Four important strategies were: (1) increase tourism to gain awareness of the country among travelers; (2) CIPs, or Citizen by Investment Programs, otherwise known as Golden Visas, to encourage investment by affluent internationals in exchange for residency and citizenship; (3) general immigration and visa reforms; and (4) programs to entice the Portuguese diaspora to return home. Before the pandemic, these strategies helped Portugal’s immigration grow at a steady pace. By year-end 2020, SEF recorded the country’s total foreign resident population as 662,065–an increase of 12.2% from 2019, up 75% since 2015. While emigration continues at a significant level, birth rates remain generally flat, and the aging population continues to grow. Immigration has helped Portugal reach its third consecutive positive net migration gain in 2019, with total population up almost 20,000 at the end of that year. While it may not sound like much, a net population gain hasn’t been achieved in many years. Hampered by Covid-related changing work conditions, SEF has nonetheless achieved an aggressive pace of processing residence permits during the pandemic. Mid-year 2020, UN DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) projected one million international migrants residing in Portugal, representing 9.8% of the total population–the highest since pre-1950s.
Source: macrotrends.net March 2021
32 Portugal Living Magazine
