JUNE 2021 theactuary.com
INTERVIEW How scenario analysis can help convey climate risk to pension trustees
Kristian Niemietz considers alternative healthcare systems
INVESTMENT Can cashflow-driven investment de-risk pension schemes?
MICROINSURANCE Bringing low-income Filipinos into the insurance fold
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Contents June 2021
26 Features 11 Environment: A future worth having Esther Hawley and Sandy Trust on the IFoA’s new climate and pensions guide 12 Interview: Kristian Niemietz The IEA’s head of political economy shares his radical healthcare proposals
12 Up Front 4 Editorial Actuaries must never be afraid to re-examine sensitive issues, says Dan Georgescu 5 President’s comment Tan Suee Chieh reflects on the concept of stewardship 5 CEO’s comment We are working tirelessly to be a voice for our members, says Stephen Mann 6 IFoA news The latest IFoA news and events 10 Letters
15 Environment: What’s the scenario? Neil Mitchell, Claire Jones and Lisa Eichler discuss climate scenario analysis in the pensions field 18 Investment: Going with the flow DB pension schemes should look at cashflow-driven investment strategies, say Derek Steeden and Kedi Huang
COVER: IKON
40 Microinsurance: A steep learning curve Lorenzo Chan on building insurance products in the Philippines
At The Back
22 Data science: Precision parameters How can clustering help when doing frequency analysis of dynamic risk factors? Paul Papenfus explains
44 People/society news The latest news, updates and events
43 Student Jason Brett on gambling and investing
45 Puzzles 26 Modelling: Road testing Nefeli Pamballi, Phanis Ioannou and Yannis Parizas on machine learning and fraud detection
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38 Regulation: On your marks Companies should prepare for the IFRS 17 shake-up, says Carmen Iftode
20 General insurance: Weighing the options Peter Towers and Justin Thomas examine the fall from favour of PPOs
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36 Regulation: Room for improvement? Amerjit Grewal discusses the IFoA’s survey findings on Solvency II
46 On the record Joseph Peck on taking risks and Russell Crowe’s Nottingham accent
Additional content including daily news can be found at www.theactuary.com Weekly newsletter: for all the latest actuarial news, features and opinion direct to your inbox, sign up at bit.ly/1MN3bXK JUNE 2021 | THE ACTUARY | 3
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PUBLISHER Redactive Publishing Ltd Level 5, 78 Chamber Street, London, E1 8BL +44 (0)20 7880 6200 PUBLISHING DIRECTOR Anthony Moran MANAGING EDITOR Sharon Maguire +44 (0)20 7880 6246 sharon.maguire@redactive.co.uk SUB-EDITOR Kate Bennett NEWS REPORTER Christopher Seekings +44 (0)20 7324 2743 christopher.seekings @redactive.co.uk
EDITOR Dan Georgescu editor@theactuary.com F E AT U R E S E D I T O R S Travis Elsum: Environment and sustainability Stephen Hyams: Pensions and investments Thanuja Krishnaratna: Life Blessing Mbukude: Life Fiona Neylon: General insurance Yiannis Parizas: General insurance and data science Rajeshwarie VS: General insurance Ruolin Wang: Sustainability, reinsurance and data science PEOPLE/SOCIETY NEWS EDITOR social@theactuary.com Sharon Maguire sharon.maguire@redactive.co.uk
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SUBSCRIPTIONS Subscriptions from outside the actuarial profession: UK: £100 per annum. Europe: £130 per annum, rest of the world: £160 per annum. Contact: The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, 7th floor, Holborn Gate, 326-330 High Holborn, London WC1V 7PP. T +44 (0)20 7632 2100 E kate.pearce@actuaries.org.uk. Changes of address: please notify the membership department. E membership@actuaries.org.uk Delivery queries: contact Rachel Young E rachel.young@redactive.co.uk Published by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) The editor and the IFoA are not responsible for the opinions put forward in The Actuary. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form, or by any means, without prior written permission of the copyright owners. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the content, the publisher and its contributors accept no responsibility for any material contained herein. © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, June 2021 All rights reserved ISSN 0960-457X
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Sensitive topics This month we interview Kristian Niemitz, head of political economy at the IEA, who posits that there is a better way to organise a health system than the NHS, in order to deliver improved outcomes (p12). As he recognises, this is an area of deep-rooted sensitivities and strongly held opinions; perhaps these are the very issues that need examining. We look forward to hearing what readers think. In our cover article, Neil Mitchell, Claire Jones and Lisa Eichler look at what climate-related risk analysis might look like for pension schemes (p15). We fully support the authors’ aims, contributing to the work necessary to ensure that climate-related risk is understood and considered by actuaries in the same way as other major risks such as interest rate and mortality. In the student section, Jason Brett writes his final column as a student editor, having been in the role for more than four years (p43). Unfortunately, he is now disqualified from further student contributions – as he has successfully passed his last exams. Congratulations, Jason, and thank you for all your work. Finally, as this issue of the magazine went to press, we were informed that The Actuary stalwart Mahidhara Davangere had sadly lost his battle with COVID-19. Mahidhara was irrepressibly enthusiastic about the magazine and its potential for reaching actuaries everywhere, contributing articles, conducting interviews and participating in the Editorial Advisory Panel. It was hard to keep up with his many ideas or suppress a grin when he encouraged us to reach for the stars with another ambitious interview suggestion, all delivered with the best intentions for serving the next generation of actuaries. An obituary will no doubt appear in due course for a warm and generous man who made time to help everyone, and whom we will all miss enormously.
DAN GEORGESCU EDITOR editor@theactuary.com
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TA N S U E E C H I E H
STEPHEN MANN
Nurturing and growing
On the same train
T
O
his message will be my last as president, and I thought it would be fitting to address the issue of stewardship. As we elect new Council members and renew the presidential team, it is good to remind ourselves what stewardship means in our context, as decisionmaking is widely shared. Our membership holds a rich diversity of opinions, and consistency and authority can only be established with patience and over time. This counteracts speed and imagination in decision-making – and we learned a great deal about this during the past 18 months. During the pandemic, IFoA leaders took decisions quickly and acted imaginatively beyond established processes. As a result, we are in a stronger position than planned for – both financially and strategically. If stewardship means we nurture and grow what has been entrusted to us so we can hand it to the next generation in better condition, we may certainly be content with what the IFoA has achieved this year. However, the work for the profession and the IFoA is far from finished. Whose responsibility is it to ensure we have a secure and purposeful future that befits our capability and narrative? This question may seem lofty and abstract. After all, we are only a professional body. Many members step forward to volunteer their time, serve the profession, widen their experience and improve their networks, and to make a meaningful difference. However, the attitude and sense of responsibility with which members step forward are critical. The IFoA seeks to be the unified voice for its members, and our work will continue to establish a timeless narrative: articulating the purpose of the profession, exerting our influence on society’s challenges, and translating our past into a vision for a future beset with uncertainty and opportunity. Leadership on this can come from all places and all levels, by those who have the TAN SUEE CHIEH time, interest, capability, and sense of debt is the president of to the profession. the Institute and I have enjoyed being your steward. It is Faculty of your turn. Actuaries www.theactuary.com
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ne of the things I value about being the CEO of the IFoA is the clarity of accountability to our membership. It provides a clear line of sight for the things we do, what the organisation aims to achieve, and what I expect to be judged against. We are all passengers on the same train. Whether we are just beginning our journey or stepping off, we need to ensure the actions we take now will benefit the IFoA in the longer term. Many of the opportunities and challenges we must consider will transcend our current leadership – and some of our membership, too. We want the IFoA to be an influential, effective voice for actuaries into the future. We also want to help our members have sustainable, rewarding and fulfilling careers – and we must achieve both in a rapidly-changing world. Some of the activities under way to benefit our members will be felt quite quickly, others will come through over time, but we need ensure both are congruent. We are fortunate to have a clear stewardship model, which starts with our membership, who can express their voice through the Council elections each year. The Presidential Team is elected from Council. Council has a majority on our Management Board, which I am specifically accountable to and where I must demonstrate that the IFoA is making progress against Council’s strategy. Although our roles are different, we work towards a common purpose: to be the voice of actuaries, and to support, develop and be the voice of our members. Our membership’s voice is coming through loud and clear. We are listening and have responded, with much exciting work to do and follow through on. Several things will converge during the next year or so – including communicating what we offer members, a new IT platform for a more seamless user experience and more. You will see further evidence STEPHEN MANN of our transformation in the short is the chief executive term, and the tracks we are laying for of the Institute and sustained change for members for the Faculty of years to come. Actuaries AUTUMN JUNE 2021 2017 | THE ACTUARY | 5
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Upfront News
Q U A L I F I C AT I O N
Certificate in Data Science – one year on In July 2020 our first cohort of 100 members completed the Certificate in Data Science. In its first year we ran three programmes and, in total, 376 members signed up for the Certificate. We are delighted to have presented 333 Certificates to our members – congratulations to them all. It has been fantastic to see our global members participating from all regions of our community, showing that location is not a barrier to this learning. To celebrate this first anniversary, three participants from m that initial cohort joined John Taylor, Philip Darke and Colin Thores to explore data science and their experience. A recording of the webinar is available to view at bit.ly/3hqZo60 More of our participants have shared their experiences in a series of blogs, which may be read at bit.ly/3ogSt0p Booking opens on 21 June for our next programme, starting on 2 September. All members are eligible to sit the programme, and in April this year we also extended eligibility to our Affiliate members. Full details of the 10-week online programme are on our website at bit.ly/3uOKJW6 You can register your interest for later programmes using our expression of interest form at bit.ly/3eKvvvr
A DJ U D I C AT I O N PA N E L
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Mr Christopher J Mapp (Resigned) On 27 and 28 January 2021 the Adjudication Panel considered an allegation of misconduct against Mr Mapp (the respondent). The respondent was a Fellow between 1990 and 2019 and the allegations relate to his role as scheme actuary to Plan A in the period 2009-2011. The panel upheld allegations that: he knew or should have known that a charge over property to be granted in relation to an approved withdrawal arrangement (the charge) had not been put in place and therefore could not be effective; he relied on the charge being in place when advising the trustees on the methods and/or assumptions to adopt for the 2009 actuarial valuation, when he knew or should have known that the charge was not in place; he did not advise the trustees of the implications of the charge not being in place on the 2009 actuarial valuation and/or the solvency position; he relied on the charge being in place when preparing the statement
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of funding principles dated June 2010, when he knew or should have known that it was not in place. The panel found that this was a breach of the principles of competence and care in the Actuaries’ Code (version 1.0). It was also alleged (and upheld) that he did not advise the Pensions Regulator that the charge was not in place and/or that the statement of funding principles dated June 2010 was incorrectly based on the charge being in place. The panel found that this was a breach of the principle of the compliance principle in the Actuaries’ Code. The panel determined that these allegations disclosed a prima facie case of misconduct. In considering sanction, the panel took into account all relevant information and was satisfied that the appropriate and proportionate sanction in this case was a reprimand and a fine of £5,000. Find a full copy of the published determination at bit.ly/3ffHssh
IN BRIEF... Annual General Meeting – 24 June All IFoA members are invited to attend the Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the IFoA on Thursday, 24 June at 9.30am BST. Members who join the meeting will have the option to submit questions to presenters on the day. You can also submit questions in advance by emailing the IFoA’s corporate secretary James Harrigan (James. Harrigan@actuaries.org.uk). The AGM is an opportunity for you to be heard so that we can ensure we are delivering the support and value that you need. We look forward to seeing you there – book your place at bit.ly/2SbKkP6
Presidential Address – 25 June Join newly inaugurated IFoA president Dr Louise Pryor for her Presidential Address, ‘A Learning Society’, on Friday, 25 June at 9:30am BST. The address will explore what we need to do to keep abreast of the changing world and how we can seize the resulting opportunities. Audience questions will be welcomed. We hope you will join us for this special event – book your place at bit.ly/2SToEHG
Final call – Climate-related risk There is still an opportunity for you to take part in the IFoA’s information gathering exercise on climaterelated risk. The information you share will allow the IFoA to understand the involvement of actuaries across all practice areas in the treatment and assessment of climate-related risk, and to identify high-impact work being carried out. Don’t miss the opportunity to contribute to this important exercise; visit bit.ly/3eK1Fas or contact the Review Team for more information (reviews@actuaries.org.uk).
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Upfront News
WORKING PARTY
An analysis of diabetes mortality and morbidity risk The Diabetes Working Party was set up in 2018, and the group has progressed to a stage of commissioning funded research through the IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre. The importance of this research has attracted the support of insurance partners. The IFoA is joined by Pacific Life Re, PartnerRe, Swiss Re, Legal & General and Zurich Insurance Group in co-funding this project. A steering group has been set up to oversee the research, which is supported by the IFoA executive with representation from the co-funding partners and members of the working party. Independent academic guidance is to be received from Professor Mayhew of Cass Business School. We are pleased to announce that the award of the tender went to the University of Leicester, which has a multi-disciplinary community of researchers with world-leading expertise across
data analysis and modelling, as well as leading medical expertise through their collaboration with the Leicester Diabetes Centre and Real World Evidence Unit. The research started in May 2021, with the aim of completing in April 2022. Any publication that comes about because of this research will be published on an open access basis. We plan to keep the profession and interested industry stakeholders up to date through regular communication as research progresses. We believe this research will make a valuable contribution to actuarial science, support industry practitioners, and help inform evidence-based public policy development. Find out more at bit.ly/arcdiabetes
Book now!
IFoA Asia Conference 2021 Webinar series: 26-30 July Hear from thought leaders including:
Anusha Thavarajah Allianz Asia Pacific
Andrew Smith University College Dublin
Louise Pyror Incoming IFoA President
Hugh Terry The Digital Insurer
Craig Turnbull Bank of England
Risk. Adapt. Thrive. Register at www.actuaries.org.uk/asiaconference2021
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Upfront News
IFOA
Council Elections are now open This year’s election for vacant seats on Council is now open. If you are a Fellow or an Associate of the IFoA and are registered in the General constituency, you are eligible to vote in this year’s election. There is no election in the Scottish constituency this year. Council sets the strategic direction of the IFoA and is the voice of our members.
Representation is key, so we encourage you to use this opportunity to have your say. You can read more about why current Council members are telling all members to ‘use your vote’ at bit.ly/33FUI3Y If you are eligible to vote in this year’s election, you will have received an email from Civica Election Services on 20 May with a unique voting link. You can
also visit bit.ly/33IYs4O to see the candidates and read their submissions, but you will need to access it via the unique link in your email from Civica to submit your vote. The election is open until 12pm on Tuesday 22 June. The results will be announced at our AGM on Thursday 24 June.
retirement age’ of Person A or B, as instructed; failed to take into account in his offsetting calculations the basis upon which police transfer values are calculated, which was unfair to Person A; did not address within the report the possible impact of Person A having to retire early on medical grounds, as instructed; did not discuss the various methods by which pensions can be apportioned to the various defined marriage periods; did not address his report to the Court (in breach of paragraph 9.1 of Court Practice Direction 25B ‘The Duties of an Expert, the Expert’s Report and arrangements for an Expert to attend Court’ and paragraph 4.2 of APS X3: The Role of the Expert in Legal Proceedings version 2.0, effective from 20 April 2018); and did not state whether his report was compliant with Technical Actuarial Standard 100: Principles for Technical Actuarial Work version 1.0 effective from 1 July 2017, in breach of
Technical Actuarial Standard 100: Principles for Technical Actuarial Work version 1.0 effective from 1 July 2017. The panel found that there were associated breaches of the competence and care, communication principles in the Actuaries’ Code (versions 2.0 and 3.0) and also, in relation to a number of the factual allegations above, breaches of the compliance principle. The panel determined that these allegations disclosed a prima facie case of misconduct. In considering sanction, the panel took into account all relevant information and was satisfied that the appropriate and proportionate sanction in this case was a reprimand and a fine of £1,500. If you would like to see a full copy of the published determination, this can be found on the IFoA’s website at bit.ly/3ffHssh
A DJ U D I C AT I O N PA N E L
Mr Peter Gatenby FIA On 17 and 18 March 2021 the Adjudication Panel considered an allegation of misconduct against Mr Gatenby (the respondent). The allegations relate to his appointment as a single joint expert to report on the division of pension assets during divorce proceedings between Person A and Person B. The panel upheld the allegation that he did not confirm his understanding of the terms of his instructions before preparing his report in breach of paragraph 2 of APS X3: The Role of the Expert in Legal Proceedings version 2.0, effective from 20 April 2018. The panel found evidence to support that the report and addendum did not fulfil the instructions provided to the respondent and/or was inadequate in that he: did not report on all the alternative retirement dates for each party, as instructed; did not address within the report the ‘compulsory
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Upfront News
Super simple
CPD With the first year of the new CPD scheme closing on 31 August, we asked some members for their first impressions Peter Ridges
“The scheme is much more reflective of what you do and what your needs are”
Jane Hamilton
organisation, it’s relevant to what I do in my job. I also do IFoA webinars from home. You can save the email or a screenshot in a folder, and then it’s there for when I need it for my reflective practice discussion. It is simple to keep on top of your CPD now that you don’t have to record everything meticulously. The scheme is now much more reflective of what you do as a person and what your needs are. Rather than just collecting 15 hours that can be anything, I’m now collecting things that I think will benefit me. When I’m doing my reflective practice discussion, which I would do with my manager, we’re discussing not only what I’ve done last year, but also what I’m going to do next year. I think that’s really important because you’re thinking about career progression and personal development. One of the best things is that you can count articles – say, in The Actuary!
Data and technology change lead at M&G and IFoA CPD co-ordinator
Douglas Green
The new scheme brings CPD together with the development discussions I have at work about where I want to go with my career. Setting objectives at the start of the year helps me to focus on finding activities that are going to help me achieve those objectives. So I think of CPD throughout the year, rather than periodically thinking, “I need to get some CPD done now!” I work part time and I find that webinars are often outside my working hours. Now I can watch a recording at a time that suits me, and I don’t have to worry about whether or not I can verify it. There’s much more trust. That’s really helpful.
Associate professor in actuarial mathematics and statistics at HeriotWatt University I like the new continuing professional development (CPD) scheme a lot, even though I was involved in designing the previous iteration! In the past I’ve attended meetings as a way of completing CPD, but, personally, I tend to learn best from reading, and the new scheme enables me to go with that. In the past there was a big emphasis on everything being verifiable. Now I’m just able to read something and it counts, as long as I’m convinced that it has been of benefit to me. In the past we maybe chose things based on convenience; now we can pick things that are relevant.
Partner at Hymans Robertson
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We do a lot of lunch-and-learns, which is good because you can get CPD in your lunch hour! And, because it’s in the
“In the past we maybe chose things based on convenience; now we can pick things that are relevant” www.theactuary.com
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It’s important to make sure you’re keeping up to date with things in your field, but also to be aware of things outside your field which may still be relevant to your work. I do internal sessions at work – run not only by the IFoA, but also by other professional bodies – and meetings that involve people outside my firm, such as a presentation from an investment manager. I’ve also recently done extensive reading on a particular topic that was coming up with a client, and I talked to a couple of colleagues
who were more specialised in that area. This can now all count as IFoA CPD. I found it very helpful to talk with an officer from the IFoA; we exchanged a few high-level details in advance of some of the CPD I’d been doing. We discussed a bit more about what that involved, and there were some really interesting questions around how I thought I’d benefited from that and whether, on reflection, I would do some things differently.
Helen Nicholas Associate director at Willis Towers Watson and IFoA CPD co-ordinator
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Have your say
Upfront Letters
Vague ERCs punish borrowers I read The Actuary article ‘Home truths’ (May 2021) with dismay. Those who have designed these equity release mortgage products do not seem to understand the possible events as one or other of a couple become elderly. They do not die or move into long-term care simultaneously. For one reason or another, either while one or both are alive, there may well be a good reason to sell their home, and this is where the early repayment charge (ERC) cuts in. I have found from experience that those providing advice about these products are rather vague about the ERC and it is very difficult in some cases to get a proper and comprehensible description of how it is calculated – let alone why it is calculated in this way.
Of course, when the ERC is applied, it may well be that those concerned will not understand why it is being applied or how it is calculated. If alive, they can complain to the advisor (if still in business). More likely, they will not have the energy or intellect to do so and may be more preoccupied with their own health. If, indeed, they do complain, the procedure is likely to proceed at a pace that ensures they will not survive to its conclusion. I would urge actuaries not to call these borrowers ‘policyholders’ and to avoid any ERM products that include anything other than a negligible ERC. G K HAZELL 8 May 2021
The Actuary magazine is looking for a new editor Could it be you? The current editor, Dan Georgescu, will be stepping down at the end of 2021. Would you be interested in taking on this high-profile, rewarding role? Each month The Actuary publishes content on a diverse range of subjects, from the traditional fields of pensions and insurance to sustainability, investment and data science. It looks at some of the cutting edge topics of our time, and conducts interviews with high profile leaders and industry experts.
Not only will you help shape the magazine for the next two years, it is a great way to raise your profile and expand your horizons. You’ll get to work with a committed team of features editors from around the world. We’re looking for a candidate with excellent communication skills; the ability to work under pressure, adhere to strict deadlines and forward plan; and the strategic vision to develop the magazine at a time when the role of the actuary is undergoing change.
More comments are posted online about news stories published on www.theactuary.com
ERCs: in response The authors agree with your point on the use of the term ‘borrower’ – that is the correct terminology, given that equity release mortgages (ERMs) are loans. In relation to your point on early repayment charges (ERCs) and the communication of them, the authors agree that this is a valid and important area for discussion related to ERMs. However, this was not a core area of focus for this article, so was not covered in detail. We agree that any ERCs within ERM products must be clear and fair, communicated clearly at outset, and well understood by borrowers. This is as it should be for any mortgage product, noting the extra focus required for ERMs given the potential vulnerability of borrowers and the additional complexity of borrower events such as in the joint life cases that you raise. Raj Saundh, Alex Davis and Alex Mockridge
‘‘Being editor of The Actuary is one of the best ways of helping the profession, with huge scope for promoting new ideas, speaking to actuaries across the world and improving communication. It takes organisation and commitment, but it’s also great fun.’’ 2020-2021 EDITOR DAN GEORGESCU
If you would like to have an informal chat about the role, please contact Dan Georgescu at editorattheactuary @gmail.com
A detailed description of the role can be found at bit.ly/2Rpogk1 Please submit your CV and expression of interest to HRSupport@actuaries.org.uk by Monday 19 July Interviews are expected to take place by mid-August, with a candidate appointed by late September. 10 | THE ACTUARY | JUNE 2021
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