WAFarmers column

the water wars are coming

As the world’s water resources reach their limits, there are knock-on effects

for farmers

Above: Round irrigated farms in the Saudi Arabian desert. Image courtesy Alamy

Trevor Whittington – CEO WAFarmers

It is only a matter of time before the global export of hay becomes the next global environmental cotton debate.

Because of its bulk hay - unlike grain - never travelled far in the good old days, but with the development of double compression of hay into container bales the opportunity emerged to cost effectively ship grass around the globe. Currently the global production of alfalfa hay exceeds 220 million tonnes, with around 10 million tonnes being exported, that’s 120,000 40ft containers and that does not include the oaten and grass hay that is also exported. That’s an awful lot of containers stuffed full of hay heading each year to a dairy or cattle farm in Asia or the Middle East. The demand is driven by countries that are chasing food security and have expanded or improved their dairy and beef production but do not have adequate fodder or water resources for high quality pasture or hay production. The biggest driver of this rapidly expanding global market, which is expected to double by 2030, is the issue of water resource availability. In the Middle East the well has run dry when it comes to water to irrigate the desert. Both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been flat out pumping their 10 million year old aquifers down for decades. These underground water resources once held over 500 cubic kilometres (500 billion litres) of pristine water, but have now been all but pumped dry. In total they have managed to pump 90 per cent, or 400 cubic km, of their reserves – lifting water up to 800m to the surface to run thousands of massive irrigated grain and fodder farms in the desert. At its peak in the 1990s, Saudi Arabia was producing over 5 million tonnes of wheat and 3.6 million tonnes of alfalfa under pivot, but those glory days ended when the vast subsidies were cut back and now there is an almost total ban on irrigated broadacre production. But as the production of local fodder has declined, the domestic production of livestock has exploded, with today over 10 million sheep, 500,000 camels and 300,000 cattle now part of the Saudi government’s food security program. All of which need imported hay to survive. In China we see a similar story. Despite total grain production hitting 615 million tonnes, the demand for hay continues to grow, in part driven by issues around the sustainability of the country’s groundwater supplies and the explosion of demand for milk and meat. To produce the grain to feed the livestock, China’s groundwater abstraction rate has increased exponentially until, today, most aquifers in northern China have been over-drafted. This includes the entire Hebei Province, plus the aquifers in mega or middlesized cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Haerbin, Jinan, Taiyuan and Zhengzhou. More than 100 regional groundwater cones of depression have formed across China, with a total area exceeding 150,000 square km. In the North China Plain, the cone of depression has spanned from Hebei to Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong, with the groundwater level in an area of 70,000 square km lower than sea level. The end result is that the government is racing to cut irrigated agriculture’s access to groundwater aquifers, leading to increased demand for imported fodder to supply China’s rapidly growing livestock numbers, which have tripled in the past 30 years. Across the United States we see a similar story as it also faces substantial limitations and competition for water resources, as well as in Spain, Italy, North Africa and of course Australia, with its long running cuts to the Murray Darling resource. Part of the global water challenge is a growing global debate around the use of highly valuable and limited volumes of irrigated water to produce what is a relatively low value product – hay – when it could be used to grow far higher valued horticultural produce such as fruit, nuts, vegetables and wine. As a result, it is only a matter of time before the global export of hay becomes the next global environmental cotton debate where activists come together to target the ‘trade in virtual water’. First, they will target governments, then it will be retailers and eventually it will be farmers. The call to arms will be by the environmentalists to leave the water in the ground or by the vegans to use it to produce vegetables and fruit to support local food security and local jobs. So, between the environmentalists and the activists the writing is on the wall for irrigated hay, particularly irrigated and exported hay. The one upside is that Australia’s rain-fed oaten hay can only benefit from the coming water wars.