16 minute read
The PSI Panel
PANEL
What has 2022 got in store?
The PSI Panel returns this month with a look ahead to the New Year and beyond. Here the experts give us their thoughts on the trends and times to come
The events of 2020 taught us that predicting the future is a tricky thing to do especially as we appear to be living in unprecendentedly unpredictable times. However, given what we know about the increasingly connected, AIdriven, mobile and cloud stored consumer tech market can this give us a guide as to the picture for the electronic security market in 2022? What will be the impact of the pandemic and will being an installer appeal to the tech savvy generation of students coming through?
For the first time in a while, the PSI Panel is in session...
John Coleman –CSL
The biggest challenge that the fire and security industry will face in 2022 is the move from traditional phone lines (PSTN) to the new digital voice service (All IP). The first part of this challenge is the end date – December 2025. In many cases, people think this is how long they have to upgrade their systems when the reality is that this is happening now and the clock is ticking. There are over 450 exchanges that have either entered the ‘Stop Sell’ phase of PSTN services or have been declared as an upcoming area for 2022. ‘Stop Sell’ impacts not only new supply but also the ability to make any changes on that line – for example, you cannot move to a different provider without upgrading to an IP service.
Once your exchange moves into ‘Stop Sell’ you can be moved to digital voice at any time. You could have restrictions on PSTN supply at the start of a month and be moved to the digital voice service within that same month. This is a massive concern for Installers, especially for single-path signalling devices that are reliant on PSTN. Once your digital voice service is enabled, your old phone line will stop working and if this happens in an area with legacy signalling systems installed, will a security company have the time and resources to get around these sites to ensure they are upgraded? It is very unlikely. What we will see is the momentum on these migrations ramping up as the Communication Providers look to roll out these enhanced broadband features. With all the leading industry bodies stressing the importance of taking action now to avoid issues later, proper planning could see companies carrying out these upgrades in the calm of 2022 as opposed to the chaos of the years to come. “The biggest challenge that the fire and security industry will face in 2022 is the move from traditional phone lines (PSTN) to the new digital voice service (All IP)”
David Scott –Skills for Security
Looking ahead I believe the sector will continue its growth over the next year and beyond. This growth will be further driven in the construction sector with changes to fire legislations affecting not only fire alarms and fire protection systems but also accompanying systems like intruder alarm systems, VSS and access control systems. Other predicted areas of growth and interest will be in new and advancing changes with CCTV and AI technology, which will see the sector move into new areas and be responsible for supplying more compliant systems as this sector becomes more regulated as governments clamp down on it’s use and controlling behaviour.
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The skills shortage we are all seeing just now will continue to worsen before it gets better, with a further skills shortage anticipated in all engineering sectors of 265K+. This will see salaries in full-time employees increase to new levels and a further need to depend on subcontractors for support and completion of projects.
The sector is driving professionalism and competency. This will continue through changes in the ECS card scheme, developments around apprenticeships and the development of new accredited qualifications for the industry. We will see a huge up take in training across the whole sector as businesses fight to retain staff, be an employer of choice and upskill their work forces to be efficient and the best in the sector. The companies that develop and retain will be the ones that are able to grow.
The sector will continue it’s trend with M&A and we will see many of the global organisations support there growth, staff retention problems through the acquisitions of smaller national providers to meet customer demand and growth targets.
Sara Fisher –360 Vision Technology
As we gradually emerge out of lockdown and build the new normal, a return to travel and face-to-face meetings will underpin massive growth opportunities for UK companies. In addition, there will be many more project opportunities to be had. The opening-up of international travel too, will act as a catalyst for those willing to take-up the post-Brexit batten, to promote British design and engineering solutions.
Without a doubt, as 2022 rolls out, we’re going to see more cloud-based surveillance systems being specified, where video storage and VMS control is hosted vs being physically located on-site. And as technology inevitably advances, we’ll also see a greater uptake and move towards 4K camera imaging, made possible by ever more efficient algorithms that enable the transmission of higher data rates, coupled to low bandwidths.
Looking to the future and in the aftermath of the recent COP26, end-user customers across every sector will be looking to source technologies and solutions from suppliers who proactively exhibit green credentials. The goal of reducing security systems’ carbon footprints via low power consumption products and less/re-cyclable packaging, will see conscientious manufacturers striving to build more and more green innovation into their offerings. After all, there’s only one planet Earth and the security industry, like every other sector, needs to actively contribute to reducing CO2 emissions wherever they can.
Riding on the back of several headline business acquisitions in 2021, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see more of the same in 2022, where sensible acquisitions take place that increase the depth of product offering and market share of companies in key market sectors.
A word of warning and something to be considered, is that transport and delivery costs may continue to rise, impacting on product costs. This, coupled with supply chain and essential component shortages, will need to be carefully managed in order for companies to succeed and prosper…
Justin Hawkesford –Comelit-PAC
The pandemic has triggered a widespread transition into the digital sphere for everyone. In security, it has increased the reliance on remote technology and seen a shift in our approach to biometrics and how we control access to buildings.
We are in a constantly evolving industry and in the year to come, we will see many changes, led by end user preferences, in our approach to
product development, installation and remote monitoring.
Cloud based services (SaaS) are rapidly growing, helping businesses improve scalability, promote growth and facilitate agile choices. In a post-COVID world, cloud technology has become a necessity for more end users, bringing with it a necessity to place our trust in its capabilities.
The security industry is rising to the challenge with new security tools and platforms. In 2022 and beyond, organisations will adopt new technologies to address a new wave of threats, both physical and cyber based, and secure the core of our evolving digital economy.
At the same time, led by the need of consumers to have complete control over home and business security wherever they are, we are increasingly designing products and technology to fit today’s mobile-centric lifestyles.
And as part of this development journey, if plans do not include mobile, they are not finished.
This is especially true for the future of security, with homeowners increasing their use of apps to control their security and home automation needs, from door entry control, through intruder alarms, CCTV monitoring and the use of mobile based access control credentials.
The video surveillance market is consistently growing due to rising concerns for security and safety.
This will result in increased demand for more technically advanced surveillance systems, creating huge growth opportunities for video surveillance manufacturers, but also risking some manufacturers being excluded from the UK market due to security and privacy concerns.
The focus on more intricate technologies that emerge within the physical security disciplines, that enable manufacturers to stay proactive in offering the latest mobile oriented security features or indeed the increased reliance on cloud-based services will see companies continuing to be acquired for their niche capabilities.
But within this, there is increasing pressure on the industry to maintain and continue to learn new skills, which set against the wellknown shortage and lack of new generations entering our industry, is a continuing cause for concern. Rudolf Rohr – barox Kommunication
From what we see from our sales team and direct customer feedback, the trend for the security industry will be to continue at a high pace, with double digit growth rates. Cyber security is becoming the core issue for the industry. Without a focus on proper cyber security strategy and hardened products, some manufacturers will not be sustained in the market.
Interms of acquisitions, looking back, in the years 2007 and onwards it was mainly big companies like GE, Schneider and Cisco buying specialised CCTV manufacturers. Then in early 2010, it became more internal acquisitions between medium-sized players. Since 2017 big players came back into the game to purchase the likes of Motorola, Konica Minolta and Canon. For sure, acquisitions will definitely be taking place in the security industry in the future.
Jamie Allam – Amthal Fire & Security
Whilst we may not have completed the transition to the new normal, or ‘post pandemic environment,’ employees and teams who had flirted with heading back to the office full time have found themselves creating flexible arrangements.
This interim ‘new normal’ makes seemingly simple questions such as ‘how many people are in the building today,” more complex to answer. Security teams into 2022 can benefit from technical solutions for people counting like accurate touchless access control systems or easy to use advanced video analytics to help solve this issue.
More remote services can be used to manage this shift and the introduction of new processes. Increased monitoring for both fire and security ensures security managers are aware of access across a building, essential to managing complex processes such as an evacuation, safety testing or even just the flow of people at any one time in a building.
Here, the sector must continue to innovate into the new year with technologies and biometrics that enhance integration capabilities, both with the constant advances in IOT and developing building management systems.
It may see a focus shift from the end product to the firmware used, and often the potential of the product. It doesn’t necessarily mean more complicated, but in 2022, we will see ‘packaged’ solutions aimed at simplifying security and enabling digital transformation.
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As we look forward to 2022, growth via acquisition will continue, capable of pulling together research and development departments to understand the role of latest innovations changing how we see and use security technology.
Steve Norman –Ajax Systems
Due to advances in technology and the change in peoples mindsets over how and where they work, the industry will need to make huge changes over the next few years. Split working between home and office, the addition of many external spaces to the home, and the demands of the pandemic have changed the demands of customers, both commercial and domestic. Many spaces are now vacant, but still need securing from intrusion, flood and fire. Agile, flexible systems that can be adapted in an instant are going to be in demand. Hub and cloud-based systems controlled via mobile phone apps are going to drive innovation.
Steve Bumphrey –Traka UK
The pandemic has deeply influenced innovation by transforming everything from work culture to consumer behaviour, and we must continue to move from a brave new world, to a mindset of evolution for growth to meet the new expectations.
Those that will succeed into 2022 will put the customer needs and their safety (cyber and physical) across different sectors, at the forefront of everything they do.
Technology is key to laying the foundations for more efficient operations, to meet increasingly discerning consumer demands quickly and cost (and time) effectively.
It’s in small ways that it can make a difference. For example in retail, instead of keeping customers waiting while members of staff hunt for a charged-up tablet device to look for stock levels or product information, an automated retail asset management solution means this essential knowledge is right at hand.
With a growing focus on customer experience and personalisation, and with more connected devices and services, networks will also collect and store more customer data than ever before. We will see more processes automated to enable service delivery and improved business efficiency for the benefit of customers.
Here again, security technology will need to show it is prioritising consumer needs and protection, both physically and from a data perspective.
Another sector that is currently succeeding is distribution and logistics. It is embracing the ideals of asset management to optimise performance, control and monitor all physical processes and reduce the likelihood of human error.
This all enables maximum efficiency and quicker response times, as key elements in enabling greater and fluid movement despite the difficult and restrictive pandemic conditions.
Moving forward, sectors that continue to streamline and digitise their planning processes will be able to generate better plans faster and be more responsive. This can be where 2022 will be an exciting year for progress in IoT.
Digital transformation will continue as a new opportunity to provide clarity and solutions to issues in physical security. By leveraging connected technology to generate greater intelligence, it will also be able to do more with less, improving operating efficiency and reducing operating and capital expenses.
The biggest challenge we believe, will be enabling sector organisations to meet the new consumer expectations quickly and efficiently, with clear guidance on the return on investment and price point.
Tim Northwood –Inner Range
In 2022 we’ll see continued growth in demand for systems that deliver more than just good security. The pandemic, and social distancing in particular, has prompted site managers to think hard about how people use buildings, where crowds and queues occur, and how they can track and trace users if need be.
Traditional security measures to ‘keep people out’ are still important. But customers want more sophisticated help managing bona fide users who need to be ‘in’ as safely and securely as possible.
They’re looking for more integrated solutions. For example, where users can present mobile credentials at entry turnstiles and
integrated lifts read the same credentials and instantly direct users to the quickest lift for their ‘home’ floor – speeding them through reception with ease and reducing crowding.
They want credentials to be touchless wherever possible. And for visitors to be processed more efficiently with digital credentials generated in advance, quickly activated at the correct date and time, and triggering the same swift, specified access through the building.
What’s more, they want a system that can track a user who has become unwell, and trace other contacts who have been near them.
Pandemic aside, we’re also finding more customers citing a good user experience as one of their most important priorities. For many, a slick, hassle-free experience for users is just as important as high security, and I expect this will also drive more sophisticated, integrated solutions.
The bar has been raised in terms of expectation. Increasingly, customers will expect their security system to seamlessly integrate with other products to create a bespoke ‘beyond security’ solution.
Ranjith Suresh –Cloudview
The security market has changed year on year and 2022 will be no different. We will see further advancements in AI capabilities that go beyond just surveillance and provide businesses with video intelligence in real time. This will allow them to move from a reactive approach to making informed, proactive business decisions.
The transition to the cloud will also gather pace as organisations recognise the benefits of a cloud-based surveillance solution. We’ve already seen several new, younger players enter the VSaaS market and their presence has grown significantly over the past 18 months. As individuals we live our lives in the cloud and from our mobile phones to the way we watch TV, the cloud is the core of modern-day living. It is now simply a matter of time before the security industry, as a whole, catches up.
The new UK GDPR will make headlines again following the transition out of Europe and organisations will have to traverse yet another new set of rules to ensure the data they store is safe and secure. A fresh Data Bill is also in consultation so we could expect to see the outcome of that in 2022.
Ultimately, with all these technological advancements and new regulations, customers decisions become much more challenging. They must balance their needs with the budgets and resources available, all the while ensuring data compliance is maintained. Therefore, it will be up to us as manufacturers to understand the customer pain points and create products and solutions that address these problems and provide real value to their business operations. Increasingly, customers will expect their security system to seamlessly integrate with other products to create a bespoke ‘beyond security’ solution
Steve Howarth – Vemotion
The trend towards IP connected cameras sitting on a network will continue unabated in 2022, with the surveillance market becoming more integrated with IT, in a similar way as telecoms migrated to networks previously. As cameras increase in resolution and require greater bandwidth, the need to manage video networks will drive IT managers to take on more responsibility for security surveillance within their corporate networks.
AI functionality and performance will continue to grow, and the use of AI will become widespread. We’ll see analytics being deployed to extract greater value from surveillance video, beyond that of purely being used for security alert and identification. To maximise the value of video, it will be used to improve business processes, with visual data being shared for analytical applications between different stakeholders.
As mobile networks become much better, the use of wireless cameras for mobile applications, as opposed to hard-wired cameras, will increase. More and more solutions will be mobile enabled, as the requirement to be more agile in deployments can be readily achieved. The GDPR regulations around temporary deployments will drive continual use and re-location of cameras in this sector, which will deliver greater returns on investment and positive outcomes for deployments.
The growing breadth of product solutions will inevitably drive some manufacturer consolidation, particularly within the more mature product sectors but conversely, we’ll also see the growth of new technology specialists.
Political factors that forcibly coerce the use of some geographically manufactured products, may limit the ability of integrators to devise the best performing systems to be specified. Direction on what products are deemed fit for purpose, without bias, must be developed, and solid guidance given to the security industry to specify their usage, without hindrance or being penalised.
