2024 Vision Report, Civilian Services

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Civilian Services

Vision Federal Market Forecast
Vision Team Lead: Andrea McCarthy

The following presentation represents the collective work and intellectual analysis of our Vision team. This presentation and slides are the opinion of the PSC Foundation Vision process and does not represent the opinion of any individual person or company on this team. The presenter merely conveys this collective outcome, and this presentation does not necessarily reflect their personal or professional view nor that of their company.

Agenda

Introduction

Team Members

Commonality Analysis Benefits

Discussion Analysis

Common Challenges Impacting Civilian Agencies

Spending Trends

Civilian Agency Trend Analysis

Summary: Trends to Watch

Team Members

Andrea McCarthy HARP

• John Crowley CGI Federal

• Stephen Deitz ManTech

• Conrad Moses DMI

• Rebecca Moss ManTech

• Adam Mouw Easy Dynamics Corporation

• Angie Sanders CMGT Federal

• Bradley Saull Saull Strategies

• Ray Valenzuela Management Concepts

Discussion Analysis

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

• U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)

• U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

• U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

• U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)

• U.S. Department of State (DOS)

400+ Discussions held with Government Officials

• U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT)

• U.S. Department of Treasury (TREAS)

• U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)

• Plus …

• Acquisition Trends (AT)

• Customer Experience (CX)

• IT Management and Budget (ITMB)

Note: Agency acronyms listed here used throughout presentation

Actionable Trend Data Revealed through this Analysis

Commonality Analysis

• Civilian Agencies seemingly have little in common

• Yet, an analysis of PSC’s Civilian Agency Discussions uncovers common trends

• Our trend data delivers valuable, actionable insights

Benefits for Government

Learn how Federal agencies are addressing today's challenges (policy, CX, acquisition, & technology)

Benefits for Industry

450 volunteers participated in Discussions with 50 Bureaus, OpDivs, Components, etc. at about 30 Federal Agencies

Leverage other agencies’ lessons learned

Enhance your agency’s strategic planning

Accelerate your ability to deliver for current and future Government clients

Understand how current solutions / approaches can be deployed to other agencies

Improve your win strategies and solutioning

Knowledge is Power

Common Challenges Impacting Civilian Agencies

• Global

• Wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East

• Conflicts Driving Refugee Crises & Destabilization

• Climate Impacts

• Federal

• Pre- and Post-Election Dynamics

• Adjusting to New Administration Priorities Post-Election

• Ongoing Crisis on SW Border / Immigration

• Agency Budget Challenges & Continual Procurement Delays

• Government Technology

• Emerging Technologies Significantly Outpace Regulation

• Artificial Intelligence Approaches Evolving

• Cybersecurity a Perennial Table Stake

Post-Election Policy and People Changes

FY2025 budget uncertainty

* Does not include Classified or DoD Spending Source: Bloomberg Government Historical Spending, GC Historical Spending Search - Bloomberg Government (bgov.com)

Civilian Agencies Contract Obligations:

Source: Bloomberg Government Historical Spending, filtered by products and services, GC Historical Spending Search - Bloomberg Government (bgov.com)

Top 10 Small Business Set-Aside Types

by Dollars Obligated- Civilian Agencies Services Only

Analysis of Four Key Discussion Questions

Q1) Preparation for FY2025

Q2) Customer Experience Federal Employees / U.S. Public

Q3) Acquisition: Vehicle Challenges

Q4) Artificial Intelligence & Cybersecurity

Commonalities Do Exist … Leverage Them to Your Advantage

Q1: How is Your Agency Preparing for FY25?

Election Uncertainty Resulting in Holding Patterns

• AT: Policy uncertainty in an election year: What will be future impacts?

• DOS: Everything is on hold in this election year

• TREAS: Shifting priorities in an election cycle

Believe Agency Funding will be Flat or Cut

• CDC: Decline in budget post-COVID

• DHS: Ongoing CR’s limit long-term planning

• DOS: Most bureaus asked to take budget cuts

• ITMB: Some agencies planning for across-the-board cuts

• NASA: Anticipating budget reductions

• VA: Every program must be justified as to why the program is needed

Change and Uncertainty are the Order of the Day

Q2: Customer Experience: Fed Employees / Public

Civilian Agencies Demonstrate Commitment to Improving Customer Experiences

• CMS: CX is treated like security; Develop software and services with it baked in

• CX: Agencies integrating CX into IT modernization, digital transformation, and service delivery contracts

• DOC: Digital transformation underway with HR and Finance to enhance CX

• DOE: Customer experience a strategic goal, e.g., revamping all externally facing websites

• FAA: Improving portals, workflows, and interactions for citizens & internal shared services

• FEMA: High-priority initiative to establish a Digital Customer Experience team focused on driving human centered design, product management and a product owner mindset

• USCIS Continually improving the user experience and use of use of services, e.g., myuscis.gov

• USDA: CX permeates all service delivery modernization

• VA: Improving “front door” for digital services

Customer Experience Now Baked into Agency Thinking

Q3: Acquisition – Contract Vehicle Challenges

Struggle to Award GWACS Resulting in Vehicle Fatigue

• AT: Vehicles = High costs coupled with delayed returns for contractors

Some Agencies Using their own IDIQ’s and BPA’s

• DOC: Larger bureaus tend to leverage their own IDIQ’s

• DOE: Nationwide IDIQ contracts

• FBI: Awarded its $8 billion ITSSS-2 BPA

Amid these Challenges, Procurement Innovations Widely Used

• AT: Virtual methods normalized (virtual industry days, reverse industry days, draft RFP’s)

• DHS: Using down-selects, multi-phase procurements, code challenges for technical evaluations

• DOC: Instituted its own procurement innovation hub known as “The Lab”

• HHS: More Oral presentations are being required

• NASA: NASA Acquisition Innovation Launchpad (NAIL) seeks procurement ideas, and solutions to encourage innovation from diverse perspectives, improve reach, and reduce barriers

• USDA: Orals and down selects are receiving positive feedback from vendors and customers

Agency Workarounds Underway With Vehicles in Flux

Q4a: Tech Trends – Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Agency Mission Drives AI Adoption and Readiness Approach

• AT: AI in acquisitions is on the cusp of something, but what?

• CPB: Use of AI/ML/RPA to help automate repetitive tasks; Need to upgrade infrastructure because AI requires more end user processing power

• DOE: Contributing to the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource (NAIRR): Leveraging cutting-edge AI tools, data science capabilities, and high-performance computing leadership

• DOT: Every mode at different place in AI/ML “journey”

• HHS: Conducting AI pilots (e.g., Azure, ChatGPT, Google DeepMind)

• CISA: AI may be used in the future on procurements

Agency Data Strategy Informs AI Adoption

• Census: Focused on improving data quality

• DOJ: Enhancing data management capabilities

Data Driven Decision-Making is the New Frontier

• CDC: Data modernization focus: Systems should support Public Health decision-making

• DOC: Looking to Use AI to enhance data processing, analysis, and decision-making

Q4b: Tech Trends – Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity Remains a Top Priority at Federal Agencies

• DOE: Safety and security, to include cybersecurity, is a top priority in everything

• DOJ: Vendor contract clauses to include “Data Breach” requirements to ensure data protection

• DOS: Cyber capabilities continue to mature with the threat

• CMS: Cyber is important throughout the agency due to recent healthcare breaches

• EPA: Improving its cybersecurity

• FAA: Cybersecurity focus particularly for FAA operations, airports and airlines

• ITMB: Continued focus and budget expenditures for this key IT spend area ​(along with AI, Cloud & CX)

• TREAS: Cyber attacks affect risk management posture

• USDA: Zero Trust initiatives are a priority with a focus on enterprise services

Cybersecurity Incidents Can Have Serious Consequences

• HHS: Strengthening cyber tools and technology to protect HHS data, especially Personally Identifiable Information (PII) / Protected Health Information (PHI)

Keeping America’s Cyberspace Secure Remains a Federal Priority

Summary: Trends to Watch in FY2025

• Budget Uncertainty Ahead – However FY2025 spending priorities will become clearer over the coming months

• Customer Experience Has Arrived – And appears to be here to stay

• IDIQ’s & BPA’s on the Rise – Gov & Contractors executing GWAC work arounds

• AI on the Cusp – Everyone seeking an AI way ahead

• Cyber – Perennial & funded Federal high stakes priority

How Much Change will FY2025 Bring?

Back Ups

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baumgart@pscouncil.org

703-819-2927

https://vision.pscouncil.org/

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