Ag policy experts offer 3 forecasts for the 2023 farm bill

By Timothy Eggert, Agriculture Policy Editor | Farm Week Now

reelected. Final assignments will come once the new Congress is seated.

Coppess said it’s “vital” for Illinois as an “incredibly important agricultural state” to have a voice on both the House and Senate ag committees.

And that voice will likely join others on the committee in advocating for a “business-as-usual” farm bill that preserves crop insurance, keeps commodity title program spending the same and makes “some tweaks” to other programs, according to Paulson.

Coppess agreed, but added he hopes a “tough farm bill debate” leads to “some creativity, pushing some innovation” in policy areas like risk management.

“As you think about priorities and these conversations, ideally it is something creative, something new than just ‘I want a higher number in the statute,’” he said.

Here are two other predictions offered by the panel:

Debt ceiling debate to loom over negotiations

The projected $1.3 trillion price tag for the 2023 farm bill will play a major role in determining baseline appropriations and defending increases for each title’s program, the panelists said.

How the current Congress resolves funding the government through the next fiscal year while also addressing concerns over the national deficit and debt ceiling will also matter, Coppess said.

He added that plans to cut from or add to a certain farm bill program means compromises must be made to other programs. For the last two cycles, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has been the program most targeted for cuts.

And because of significant increases in SNAP benefits Congress authorized to help with the COVID-19 pandemic, Coppess expects Republicans will again seek to shrink the program.

“But ultimately, when we talk about cutting SNAP, the only way that Congress can truly cut that program cost is to push people out of programs,” Coppess said. “And that’s why it gets ugly, partisan and rancorous in those discussions, because those are somebody’s constituents who no longer get assistance.”

IRA conservation funding in limbo

Another area bound for Republican scrutiny is the $18 billion in conservation program spending outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act, the panelists said.

Because that funding is for farm bill programs and will extend through 2031, lawmakers would need to rescind it as an offset and spend it elsewhere to get it into the bill’s program baselines.

“You’d have to cut it, you’d have to take and pull that money back,” Coppess said. “It’s not an easy, free batch of $18 billion.”

Paulson agreed, saying he doesn’t expect “big shifts” in the conservation title’s baselines. But he said the ag industry is moving toward practices outlined in those programs regardless of the extra funding.

“I think it’s pretty clear that that’s the direction the wind is blowing,” Paulson said. “The carrot approaches that are being proposed are a lot better than the sticks that could have been proposed.”