Ethylene Capacity Threatened

The ethylene is produced by crackers attached to refineries hit by collapsing demand for petroleum products including jet fuel as coronavirus-linked restrictions cut road and air transport; aviation has come to a standstill across the region. These ethylene crackers may be forced to reduce operating rates or close because they rely mainly on naphtha or liquified petroleum gas (LPG) feedstocks sourced from the refineries to which they are linked. ICIS analysis suggests the 6.6m tonnes/year represent about 50% of the refinery-linked steam cracking

At least 6.6m tonnes/year, or 26% of Europe’s ethylene production capacity is threatened by oil refineries running at reduced rates or ceasing production, according to new analysis by ICIS.

capacity in Europe, and 26% of the region’s steam cracking capacity. For propylene, 5.9m tonnes/year of capacity is linked, while for benzene the figure is 4.0m tonnes/ year. The analysts are aware of around 6.5m bbl/ day of oil refining capacity that is not operating at typical capacity.

Minimum turndown

There are some planned stoppages, but most are due to reduced fuels demand from coronavirus and associated lockdowns. The experts believe that at least 2.2m bbl/day of reductions are in place, versus the expected forecast throughput of 12.2m bbl/day for Europe. “The reduction is almost certainly even higher in reality and could be as high as 5m bbl/day when considering those sites which do not share such information,” according to Michael Connolly, Senior Consultant at ICIS global refining team. The refineries are operating in the range of 50-60% utilisation, which reflects the typical minimum turndown for most distillation units. However, the crackers that are directly linked are probably able to run at higher utilisation rates than this.

Light naphtha

Michael says that while the normal feedstock of light naphtha is reduced in tandem with refinery utilisation, the mid-portion of naphtha that is generally used in the gasoline pool (via further processing) can be directed to steam cracking instead, which produces a lower quality feed than light naphtha. “This would assist in decoupling refinerycracker utilisation rates, to enable the better margins on naphtha cracking to be captured and meet supply demand for the types of polymers that are essential for the fight against coronavirus,” he adds. This ability could be maintained while the upstream refinery is operating. But if the refinery is forced to shut down completely, many of these crackers are unlikely to have the logistics to support importing sufficient feedstock to maintain operations, particularly inland crackers which represent 2m tonnes/ year of this ethylene capacity. Icis Mike Perkins (Europe, Middle East and Africa) Tel: +44 20 8652 8125 Email: Mike.Perkins@icis.com, https://www.icis. com

There are some planned stoppages, but most are due to reduced fuels demand from coronavirus and associated lockdowns

The Case for Satellite

To stimulate the economic growth potential of South Africa, especially in the light of Covid 19, it is imperative to address the need for connectivity in the farthest-reaching regions of the country. This is the view of MzansiSat COO Victor Stephanopoli, who reiterates the company’s readiness to provide fast, reliable satellite infrastructure to South African telecommunications stakeholders.

His call for action follows the recent underwater sea cable breakage, which left countless South African consumers frustrated with access to little or no internet connectivity. And although some service providers experienced minimal disruptions, it has been reported that some providers are experiencing significant downtime as a result of the breakages of both the SAT3/WASC and WACS cable systems. Running along Africa’s western coastline, the breakage in these cable systems disrupted international connectivity between South Africa and Europe. Further, the plight that many South Africans can attest to is the hassles associated with providers digging up pavements in order for fibre lines to be laid in a bid to further enable connectivity in urban areas. According to Victor, satellite broadband technology presents a more stable connectivity link that is not influenced by factors such as breakage or other terrestrial impacts. “As satellites are orbiting in the atmosphere, there is a notable difference in a satellite’s reach as opposed to that of physical cable. If you can see the sky, you can be connected.” Victor reiterates that such technology is in place in other nations, and often acts as a back-up when conventional internet broadband connections are interrupted. Having this technology already to hand, would have been an ideal backup solution

to mitigate the frustrations of South Africans when the cable breakages occurred. “However, with urban areas as a predominant focus of telecommunications providers, we often forget that to drive growth of the economy, we have to enable connectivity in rural areas,” Victor adds.

Satellite broadband presents a more stable connectivity link that is not influenced by factors such as breakage or other terrestrial impacts

Creating opportunities

The working-age population in Africa is expected to increase by some 450-million people between 2015 and 2035. If current trends continue, less than a quarter will find stable jobs. Broadening internet access can translate into creating millions of work opportunities in the future. So, why not simply install fibre to the far-reaching areas? The answer lies in the sums. Given the immense financial layout required for fibre which often far outweighs the number of customers in the area, MzansiSat believes that a very compelling answer to this dilemma would be via the use of satellite broadband technology. Although the speeds enabled by the physical cable are highly attractive, it is the dispersal of connectivity that gives satellite broadband technology an advantage over its counterpart, enabling a wider and more far-reaching availability of broadband connectivity.

Base station

Once the infrastructure is in place, all that is then required is a suitable base station to be constructed in the designated area so that broadband signals can be sent and then dispersed between hotspots in the area. Victor says the costs of broadband via satellite technology makes economic sense, especially when considering outlying areas and the ability to connect South Africans with the rest of the world in an affordable way. MzansiSat is currently working with various investors and stakeholders to make the widespread connection of South Africa a reality, with Victor saying that the company is aiming to launch its satellite in the near future. Mzansisat, Tel: (010) 594 - 5350 Email: HQ@MzansiSat.com, www.mzansisat.com