Rental Housing Journal On-Site
May 2014 - Vol. 8 Issue 4
3. It’s Time for Sales Managers to Tip the Boat! How to Make a Splash by Managing at all Levels
11. How to Turn an Unhappy Resident Into a Raving Fan! by Ernest F. Oriente
7. Dear Maintenance Men:
18. Occupancy by Who’s Standard
9. Why to Go Green?
23. Positioning Family Real Estate Ownership for Future Results
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How to Use a Resident Survey to Improve Your Properties By Mary Girsch-Bockfrom
I
t’s safe to say that property managers are constantly in search of ways to improve their properties. While some are obvious, others may not be quite so apparent. For instance, do you really know what your residents think of your clubhouse? Are they happy with property staff? Is staff response to complaints prompt or nonexistent? If you’d like to know more about what how your tenants really feel consider a survey. Resident surveys are a great way to find out what your tenants are really thinking. It’s inexpensive, convenient to distribute, and the answers are honest (as long as the survey is anonymous). But all surveys create two potential issues: what kind of questions should you ask in order to get the most out of the survey results, and how do you convince your target market – your tenants, to complete it? Here are some suggestions you may find useful: • Keep it short. Most people don’t mind filling out a survey, as long as it’s not three pages long. Anything longer and most people will either quit filling it out or simply not start in the first place. • Consider what method you will use to deliver the survey, but recontinued on page 7 Professional Publishing Inc. PO Box 6244 Beaverton, OR 97007
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Puget Sound Apartment Owners, Property Managers & Maintenance Personnel
Market Overview Seattle Red Capital Group Multifamily Housing Update 4Q13 ®
Payroll Job Summary Total Payrolls Annual Change 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast Unemployment
the late stage of its current recovery. 1,526.8m 40.2m(2.7%) 33.3m 26.5m 33.6m 26.2m 5.4% (Feb.)
4Q13 Payroll Trends and Forecast Metro job creation trends decelerated moderately over the winter months but remained healthy overall. Seattle concerns hired at a 40,200job, 2.7% annual pace in 4Q13, down from 3Q’s robust 46,700-job, 3.2% performance. Preliminary January and February data suggested that the slowdown carried over into the new year, as yearover- year comparisons slipped to an average of 38,700 jobs. Goods producing industries were largely responsible. Over the year growth in construction and manufacturing fell from 8,500 jobs in August to no net change in February. Job losses were detected in the aerospace industry. The tech sector also was softer as hiring in the computer system design and software segments declined. The RCR payroll model relies on three lags of the dependent variable, U.S. payroll growth, stock prices and the slope of the yield curve to achieve a statistically unbiased 90.8% adjusted R2. This model projects further deceleration in 2014 to the 1.8% level followed by advances in the 1.9% to 2.2% range through 2016. The forecast out-years are moderately slower in keeping with the U.S. economy in
Current Resident or
PRSRT STD US Postage PAID Seattle, WA Permit #741
Occupancy Rate Summary Occupancy Rate (Reis) 95.4% RED 50 Rank 35th Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.4% RCR YE14 Forecast 95.3% RCR YE15 Forecast 95.4% RCR YE16 Forecast 95.3% RCR YE17 Forecast 95.1% 4Q13 Absorption and Occupancy Rate Trends Seattle space demand showed no signs of lost momentum as tenants occupied a net of 1,386 units (Reis) during 4Q13, comparing constructively to 1,120 in the seasonally stronger third quarter and 1,525 in the year-earlier period. Supply levels played a major role in the trend. Developers completed 2,244 units during 4Q (7,097 units for the year), the largest one-quarter and the third largest annual vintages in the 24-year history of the Seattle Reis series. As a result, occupancy fell 40 basis points sequentially and year-on-year to 95.4%. Axiometrics same-store surveys detected a moderately larger decline: stabilized property occupancy dropped -60 bps sequentially to 94.9% in 4Q13. The phenomenon was most pronounced in the class-A sector (-90 bps); least in class-C (-50 bps). RCR models forecast that supply and demand growth should remain at historically high levels in 2014 and 2015, before reverting to long-term averages thereafter. Consequently, occupancy is likely to dip to the low95% area in 2H14, before rebounding
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to about 95.7% by mid-year 2015. Effective Rent Summary Mean Rent (Reis) $1,139 Annual Change 7.1% RED 50 Rank 1st RCR YE14 Forecast 4.8% RCR YE15 Forecast 4.0% RCR YE16 Forecast 4.6% RCR YE17 Forecast 4.2% 4Q13 Effective Rent Trends Rent trends moderated from the torrid pace observed during the third quarter but remained among the strongest in the country. Effective rents increased $14 (1.2%) sequentially to an average of $1,139, down from $22 (2.0%) in 3Q13 (Reis). Expressed on a year-on-year basis, rents advanced 7.1% for the second consecutive quarter, ranking #1 among the RED50 once more. Axiometrics surveys detected a seasonal weakening trend as stabilized same-store property rents declined about -$30 (-2.2%) sequentially to a $1,370 mean. Year-on-year comparisons decelerated to 5.7% from 7.2%, representing the smallest gain posted since 3Q10. Class-B assets were most affected, slipping –3.0% sequentially. Class-A and C rents declined –1.5% and –0.4%, respectively. RCR’s rent model (Adj_R2=96.5%) employs income, employment and vacancy variables. The model foresees gradually slowing growth through 2014-15 to about the 4% level, followed by reacceleration to the mid-4% area during 2016. Annual growth will average about 4.3% continued on page 4
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