American Consumer Holiday Spending: Online Shopping Survey 2010 by PSB

2010 HOLIDAY SPENDING SURVEY WHAT AMERICANS ARE BUYING HOW MUCH THEY‟RE SPENDING, ON WHAT AND WHERE WHAT CELEBS HAVE BEEN „NAUGHTY‟ AND „NICE‟

November 24, 2010

NEW YORK • WASHINGTON • DENVER • SEATTLE • LOS ANGELES • SAN FRANCISCO • AUSTIN • LONDON • HONG KONG • BEIJING • DUBAI

© PENN SCHOEN AND BERLAND ASSOCIATES LLC.

Introduction As the holiday spending season begins, and Americans continue to reckon with a slower-thanexpected recovery, new research released today reveals that consumers are largely planning to hold the line on spending relative to 2009. 52% say that they will spend the same or more than they did last year. Though Americans see the economy today as better than it was, and are less concerned about losing their jobs, they are more concerned about the prospects for future economic growth than they were last year, and their budgets continue to be guided by caution about the current climate.

In turn, consumers are increasingly turning to the Internet for their holiday shopping needs; 37% plan to shop online more this year, a gain of 7% over last year. And for the under-40 segments, the rise of social shopping continues as a key trend; 24% of social media users (representing 72% of total respondents) say they will make a purchase decision this holiday based on a recommendation they receive from friends or family through a social media network – including 34% of 30-39 year olds and 30% of 18-29 year olds.

With Americans looking for ways to get into the holiday spirit, respondents were asked to choose from a list of public figures to determine who‟s been naughty and who‟s been nice in 2010. Sandra Bullock and Taylor Swift continue to be seen as particularly deserving of holiday generosity this year, while Americans think that Tiger Woods and Mel Gibson should be in for some healthy servings of coal.

Penn Schoen Berland conducted 1,006 Internet interviews of American consumers from November 16-17, 2010. The margin of error is ±2.53% and larger for subgroups.

State of Personal Finances and Effect on Gift-Giving Overall, consumers are feeling slightly better about the current state of the nation‟s economy; 5% fewer describe it as “poor” than did so in 2009. And going forward, many are optimistic that the economy will improve; while just 16% think that the economy is in “excellent” or “good” shape today, 35% think it will be in one year‟s time.

2010

2009

Change

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

2

2

0

2

1

1

1

2

Good

14

11

+3

15

12

13

10

18

Not so good

58

55

+3

55

61

57

61

57

Poor

27

32

-5

28

26

29

28

23

2010

2009

Change

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

3

4

-1

4

2

2

3

5

32

38

-6

31

34

32

30

34

How would you describe current state of the nation’s economy?

Excellent

A year from now, what state do you think the nation’s economy will be in?

Excellent Good

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Not so good

49

41

+8

45

53

48

51

49

Poor

16

17

-1

20

11

18

16

12

Americans are also feeling more positive about the state of their personal finances – particularly those with annual household incomes over $70,000. 43% say that their personal finances are “excellent” or “good,” an increase of 6% over 2009; 56% of wealthier respondents say the same. Consumers are also feeling increased job security, as 6% fewer report that they are “very concerned” about losing their job in the next year.

2010

2009

Change

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

3

5

-2

3

2

2

1

6

Good

40

32

+8

39

40

29

43

50

Not so good

42

41

1

40

43

47

40

35

Poor

16

22

-6

18

14

23

16

9

How would you describe the state of your own personal finances?

Excellent

How concerned are you that you will lose your job in the next year?

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned

2010

2009

Change

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

15

21

-6

15

15

19

13

12

27

24

+3

29

25

27

29

25

29

24

+5

27

30

23

31

34

30

31

-1

28

31

31

27

28

Consumers feeling slightly more optimistic about the national economy and their personal financial situations, but how will that impact their holiday spending? Most consumers are planning to maintain their prior levels of spending this season – 52% say they will spend the same as they did last year. However, 29% are planning to cut back, including 33% of male respondents.

Indeed, the current economic situation continues to exert a strong influence on holiday spending, with 33% saying that their budget will be affected “significantly” compared to past holiday seasons before the recession. This trend remains largely unchanged from 2009.

Compared to last year, do you plan to spend more/less/the same during the upcoming holiday season?

All

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

More

19

19

30

17

19

19

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The same

52

48

45

54

53

52

Less

29

33

25

29

27

29

How much do you think the current economic situation is going to affect your budget this holiday season compared to past holiday seasons before the recession?

2010

2009

Change

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

Significantly

33

36

-3

32

35

44

30

24

Moderately

31

30

+1

30

32

29

32

34

19

20

-1

18

21

27

22

20

17

14

+3

21

13

10

17

22

Slightly Not at all

Consumers who plan to spend less this holiday are largely doing so because they are trying to get out of debt (51%) or because they are not sure that the worst of the recession is behind us (48%).

[Among those spending less] Why do you anticipate spending less this holiday season?

Please select all that apply.

All

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

I am trying to get out of debt

51

54

48

47

54

51

I am not sure that the worst of the recession is behind us

48

58

39

44

50

53

We instituted a cap on gift costs this year

25

23

28

17

29

37

I lost my job

18

18

18

25

16

9

I am fearful of losing my job

11

14

9

8

14

14

Unlike last year, I am not planning to travel this year

10

8

11

7

11

14

I am fearful of my family members losing their jobs

9

9

9

5

11

13

I am anxious about my investments

7

9

5

4

4

12

Other

16

11

21

13

16

17

Online Shopping Gains, Though Retailers Keeps Pace on Deals

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37% of consumers say that they will be shopping online more this year – a 7% increase over last year. And the strength of online shopping is not based entirely on price advantages, as 51% continue to say that they will find better deals in a store rather than online. (Online retailers can take heart in the fact that 59% of respondents aged 30-39 say that they‟ll find better deals on the Internet). Nevertheless, 62% of consumers plan to shop at retail stores about the same amount they did last year.

Compared to last year, do you plan to do each of the following more, less, or the same amount?

(Ranked by % saying “more”) Buy discounted items

MORE

LESS

ABOUT THE SAME

2010

2009

Change

2010

2009

Change

2010

2009

Change

51

53

-2

7

7

0

43

40

+3

Use coupons

47

50

-3

12

9

+3

41

40

+1

Shop online

37

30

+7

20

22

-2

43

48

-5

Use cash to buy gifts

33

37

-4

15

15

0

52

48

+4

Shop at outlets or discount stores (e.g. Ross, TJ Maxx, Loehmann‟s, etc)

24

28

-4

25

24

+1

51

47

+4

Shop at retail stores

16

19

-3

22

23

-1

62

59

+3

Take advantage of special programs such as layaway or 0% interest

15

22

-7

38

28

+10

47

50

-3

Use credit cards to buy gifts

13

14

-1

45

48

-3

42

38

+4

Thinking about this holiday season, do you think you will find the best deals…

In a store, not online Online

Male

Female

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

58

45

56

51

52

46

42

55

44

49

48

54

18- 29

30- 39

40- 49

50- 65

0

51

41

49

0

49

59

51

2010

2009

Change

51

51

49

49

Some brick-and-mortar retailers are showing some growth, as well. 7% more consumers plan to shop at Target this year than did so last year.

Furthermore, the online retail market may be diversifying – despite the increase in consumer intent to shop online this year, many fewer consumers are planning to shop at Amazon.com.

However, current Amazon.com shoppers are increasing in intensity – 34% of respondents who shopped there last year plan to do so more this year.

Do you plan to shop at any of the following stores this holiday season?

Please select all that apply.

Wal-Mart

2010

2009

Change

Male

Female

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

55

63

-8

49

60

60

57

45

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Target

42

35

+7

34

51

37

44

47

Amazon.com

36

47

-11

35

36

32

38

40

Best Buy

27

28

-1

30

25

22

27

35

Kohl’s

26

23

+3

22

31

15

33

33

Compared to last year, do you plan to do each of the following more, less, or the same amount?

(Ranked by % saying “more”) Amazon.com

MORE

LESS

ABOUT THE SAME

2010

2009

Change

2010

2009

Change

2010

2009

Change

34

31

3

21

19

2

55

50

5

Wal-Mart

25

29

-4

19

18

1

57

53

4

Target

18

18

0

25

28

-3

58

54

4

Dollar Store

18

27

-9

24

20

4

56

53

3

Kohl's

15

13

2

30

31

-1

46

56

-10

The Rise of Social Shopping Perhaps the most important trend affecting this holiday shopping season is the rise of social shopping, particularly in the under-40 demographics. 72% of consumers have created an account on social media, including 79% of 30-39 year olds. And a quarter of all respondents are following brands on social media, including 38% of 30-39 year olds and 31% of 18-29 year olds.

Social media networks are increasingly integrated into consumers‟ shopping behaviors, as well. This holiday, 24% of social media users say they will make a purchase decision based on a recommendation they receive from friends or family through a social media network – including 34% of 30-39 year olds and 30% of 18-29 year olds.

Have you ever created an account on a social media network (such as Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, Twitter)?

Yes No Don‟t know

Do you follow any brands on social media

18- 29

30- 39

40- 49

50- 65

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

76

80

79

73

58

74

70

73

28

23

14

19

25

41

23

29

25

3

4

2

6

1

2

1

4

1

2

All

Male

Fem

18- 29

30- 39

40- 49

50- 65

Income

Income

Income

All

Male

Fem

72

68

25

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networks?

<40K

40-70K

70K+

Yes

26

25

26

31

38

23

14

25

25

28

No

69

70

69

60

60

73

83

68

72

68

5

5

5

9

3

4

3

6

3

4

All

Male

Fem

18- 29

30- 39

40- 49

50- 65

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

24

23

25

30

34

18

14

25

23

26

No

52

58

47

46

46

56

63

54

56

49

Don‟t know

23

19

28

24

20

27

23

21

22

25

Don‟t know

[Among social media account holders] Thinking specifically about this holiday season, do you think you will make purchase decisions based on recommendations you receive from friends and family on a social media network?

Yes

What Americans are Planning to Buy Gift certificates, clothing and toys remain the three most popular gift categories, though spending for all has slipped slightly from last year.

2010

2009

Change

Planned Spend

Gift certificates/ Gift cards

50

49

+1

71.7

Clothing and accessories

47

50

-3

75.1

Toys

40

46

-6

53.9

Video games

33

32

+1

29.9

DVDs/Blu-ray Discs

31

34

-3

22

Books

28

30

-2

16.4

Cash

28

30

-2

54.7

Jewelry

23

24

-1

35.3

Music

22

24

-2

14.6

Consumer electronics (e.g. TV, iPod, etc)

21

20

+1

52.6

Gift Planning

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Health and beauty products

19

24

-5

16.6

Computer or computer products

15

16

-1

32.7

Items for the home or garden

15

13

+2

16.3

Wine/Liquor

14

17

-3

14.6

Tools

11

14

-3

13

Sports and outdoor equipment

11

11

0

12.9

Flowers/Gift baskets

9

13

-4

9.56

Movie theater tickets/memberships

9

12

-3

7.21

Charitable donations

7

8

-1

15.7

Magazine subscriptions

5

6

-1

3.11

Consumers are nevertheless still happy to get what they give, as cash, gift certificates and clothing/accessories top the list of gifts respondents would most like to receive. Consumers are also increasingly interested in receiving electronics as gifts – 17% say electronics are on their wish list this year, 5% more than last year.

What do you want for Christmas this year? Top 5 shown.

Cash

60

Income <40K 54

Income 40-70K 64

Income 70K+ 54

+1

24

36

32

30

26

0

18

35

26

25

18

19

-1

12

18

17

18

17

12

+5

14

15

15

20

2010

2009

Male

Fem

57

60

-3

Gift certificates/ Gift cards

30

29

Clothing and accessories

26

Books Consumer electronics (e.g. TV, iPod, etc)

Apple continues to be a buzz brand in the computer space this year – 40% of consumers who intend to purchase a new computer say they are considering Apple, a 12% increase over last year. And 12% of respondents who are planning to buy consumer electronics this year say that a tablet device such as an iPad or Blackberry Playbook is on their list, a strong showing for a category that didn‟t really exist in 2009.

[Among computer intenders] What brands are you considering? Top 5 shown.

2010

2009

Change

Male

Fem

Income <40K

Income 40-70K

Income 70K+

Dell

53

57

-4

51

56

39

67

51

Apple

40

24

+16

27

61

45

24

51

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Hewlett-Packard

30

54

-24

20

46

36

25

34

Toshiba

30

18

12

16

51

49

10

40

Sony

29

27

+2

28

30

41

22

30

Americans Know Who’s Bad or Good Sandra Bullock and Taylor Swift remain America‟s Sweethearts, topping the “nice” list for the second consecutive year. On the naughty side of things, Tiger Woods and Mel Gibson ride their turbulent 2010s into placements near the top of the list of celebrities respondents think deserve a lump of coal.

NICE LIST Sandra Bullock

All 55

Top 10 Male 47

Fem 62

Taylor Swift

40

35

45

Angelina Jolie

30

31

30

Beyonce

27

23

30

Conan O'Brien

21

25

17

Katy Perry

18

15

Bret Michaels

17

Jay Leno

NAUGHTY LIST

“Top” 10 Male Fem 60 73

Tiger Woods

All 67

Lindsay Lohan

51

45

56

Mel Gibson

48

45

50

Kanye West

45

41

49

Real Housewives of New York City

39

35

42

21

Real Housewives of New Jersey

38

34

42

16

19

Real Housewives of Orange County

38

35

41

17

20

15

Brett Favre

37

42

31

Jon Stewart

16

21

12

Real Housewives of Atlanta

34

31

38

Leann Rimes

16

17

15

Britney Spears

33

32

35

Want more?

PSB‟s Holiday Spending Survey contains detailed information about Americans‟ gift giving plans for the 2010 season. More detailed information is available for the following categories Clothing & Accessories Computers Consumer Electronics Gift Certificates

Health & Beauty Movies Music Toys

Please contact Dave Hughes at dhughes@ps-b.com or (646) 981-1486 to learn more.

© PENN SCHOEN AND BERLAND ASSOCIATES LLC.

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