TERROR THREAT
THE EVOLVING TERROR THREAT IN 2021 C
ovid-19 has accelerated a variety of global trends. Some of these are perhaps ultimately good, for example moves towards more investment in AI and automation, or a growing focus on taking this opportunity to making lasting changes to benefit the environment. Many others are, however, quite concerning. Continued threats to the global order, the likelihood of states testing the resolve of the new US administration, and increasingly polarised populations are all factors that will dominate 2021. Terrorism, similarly, is a global trend that is experiencing something of a resurgence due to the consequences of the Covid crisis. From
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COUNTER TERROR BUSINESS MAGAZINE | ISSUE 45
2016, Sibylline’s quantified ASTRA model showed that this was one of the few risk areas that had experienced a fall globally. This was mainly driven by the reduction of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, the limitations on the previously high-threat al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and a fall in activity across North Africa. Although the Sahel, West Africa, Somalia and Afghanistan continued to see jihadist activity, and there were also numerous attention-grabbing attacks in countries such as the UK, US, and across Europe, these did not offset the global decline in the threat posed by the main jihadist organisations. Despite the declining prominence of international jihadist groups over the last two
