TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
Foreword Summary Glossary 6 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Republic of Cyprus 1.2 Conditions for the development of RES and RUE Support for innovative energy technologies Investors interest Public attitude 1.3 Legislative framework for RES 1.4 The present work 2. THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF CYPRUS 2.1 General overview 2.2 Energy supply Total primary energy consumption Net Domestic consumption RES contribution to the nal demand 2.3 The electrical system Electricity demand Conventional electricity production 2.4. Comparison with other countries 2.5. Forecast Forecast of primary energy supply Forecast of electricity demand 2.6. RES potential Solar potential Wind potential Biomass potential Hydro potential 3. ESTABLISHMENT OF SCENARIOS 3.1 Rationale for the formulation of the Scenarios 3.2 RUE in the building sector 3.3 RES for electricity Wind farms PV Biomass – Municipal Solid wastes Small hydro Solar Hot Water Systems 3.4 RES in transport 3.5 Details of the scenarios Baseline Scenario Implementation of existing policies scenario Advanced Policies scenario 3.6 Indicators characterizing scenarios Deviations from targets Financial and Economic Environmental impacts Social impacts 4. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Cost-Benet Analysis Analysis of distinct technologies Analysis of scenarios 4.3 Multi-Criteria Analysis Criteria Presentation Weight Factors Evaluation 4.4 Conclusions of the comparative evaluation 5. AN ACTION PLAN FOR CYPRUS 5.1 Design and priorities of policy measures 6. CONCLUSIONS
3
5 6 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 33 33
36
Reproduction of the Contents is Subject to Acknowledgement of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission, nor any person acting on its behalf: (a) makes any warranty or representation, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this publication; (b) assumes any liability with respect to the use of, or damages resulting from this information. The views expressed in this publication do not necessary reect the views of the Commission.
Edited by The Organisations and respective teams, which contributed to the development of the Guide, are: National Technical University of Athens: Artouros Zervos, George Caralis EREC: Christine Lins, Jolanda Crettaz, Loïc Blanchard Insula-CI: Cipriano Marin Cyprus Institute of Energy: Chryssis Ioannnis, Anthi Charalambous Acknowledgements The development of this Guide was supported to a signicant extent by the ALTENER Programme of the European Commission, DG-XVII for Energy, under contract: no: 4.1030/Z/01-015/2001- WP-CYPRUS “Towards a White Paper for RES and RUE Strategy and Action Plan for the Republic of Cyprus”.
Design: Luis Mir Printed by: GAIA - TENYDEA - 6-8-2004
4
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
Foreword Prof. A. Zervos
N.T.U.A.
The Republic of Cyprus, with a population
RES and RUE introduction were analysed and
reaching 793100, is one of the ten new
comparative evaluated. The optimal scenario
Member States of the European Union since
was identied and formed the basis for
May 2004. Its entrance in EU entrains the need
establishing a strategy and action plan for RES
to comply with the Union’s energy policies and
in compliance with EU policies and international
environmental commitments.
commitments.
The energy system of Cyprus is an isolated
In addition to the formulation of the Action
energy system without indigenous sources of
Plan, during the project, a series of other
energy apart from renewable potential and
actions, related to the disseminations of the
is therefore entirely dependent on imported
results has been undertaken.
fuels. The sound and fast developing economy of Cyprus is founded to a large extent on
According to the results of the project the
the sector of services and with an important
achievement of targets is realistic, feasible
contribution of tourism-related activities. The
and protable. For its realization additional
energy consumption is characterized by high
measures and policies are required. The
increase rates of energy consumption with
positive impacts from the achievement of
transport and buildings being the largest energy
the targets, the emissions reduction, and the
consuming sectors.
employment justify the required additional support cost.
Today, the contribution of RES in the energy supply is very low and it is based on the use of solar energy for water heating. The contribution of RES in the electricity sector is negligible. The ofcial targets for the Republic of Cyprus are: • 6% RES supply in the electricity sector in 2010. • 5.75% use of biofuels in the transportation sector in 2010. The National Technical University of Athens in collaboration with EREC, INSULA and the Ministry of Commerece, Indystry and Tourism of Cyprus have formulated a White Paper for RES and RUE Strategy and Action Plan for the Republic of Cyprus. In the framework of an Altener project alternatives scenarios of
5
6
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
Summary The island of Cyprus is located in the North-
production, as well as forecasting of the future
eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. It is the
consumption is carried out.
third bigger in size island in the Mediterranean,
The third chapter provides a detailed
with a population reaching 793100
presentation of the three scenarios established.
The energy system of Cyprus is an isolated
The fourth chapter deals with the comparative
energy system without indigenous sources of
evaluation of the established scenarios. Cost
energy apart from renewable potential and
Benet analysis and Multi criteria evaluation are
is therefore entirely dependent on imported
used in parallel, in order to select the optimal
fuels. The sound and fast developing economy
scenario to serve as a basis of the action plan for
of Cyprus is founded to a large extent on
RES and RUE integration in Cyprus.
the sector of services and with an important
Finally, in the chapter ve the scenario
contribution of tourism-related activities. The
selected is elaborated and the dened action
energy consumption is characterized by high
plan for the harmonization of the Republic of
increase rates of energy consumption with
Cyprus with EU energy policies is presented.
transport and buildings being the largest energy
The analysis shows that new advanced
consuming sectors.
policies should be implemented before the
The Republic of Cyprus is one of the ten new
targets are achieved. The results of the
Member States of the European Union since May
evaluation indicate that policies and measures
2004. As a member of the EU, Cyprus is obliged
for supporting the integration of RES are
to comply with the Union’s energy policies and
justied and the benets from the
environmental commitments.
implementation of RES are much higher than the
The objective of the present work is to
engaged resources.
formulate an Action Plan towards a sustainable energy path for the Republic of Cyprus, aiming at the substantial uptake of RES and RUE. The ofcial data of the Republic of Cyprus are used and the analysis is focused on the Republic of
Glossary
Cyprus. The rst chapter presents the island of Cyprus, its energy situation and the perspectives
RES RUE PV SHWS tn CHP MSWP
of deployment of RES. The favorable legislative framework for RES is also presented. The second chapter attempts a detailed description of the Energy System of the Republic of Cyprus. Analysis of electricity demand and
7
Renewable Energy Sources Rational Use of Energy Photovoltaic Solar Hot Water Systems tonnes Combined Heat Power Municipal solid wastes plants
1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Republic of Cyprus The island of Cyprus is the eastern island in the Mediterranean Sea. The climate is typical Mediterranean, with hot, dry summers from June to September and rainy, rather variable winters from November to March, separated by short autumn and spring seasons of rapid change. The maximum altitude is 1952 m at Mount Olympus. The economy of Cyprus is characterized by an open character, rapid growth and overall healthy indicators. The Cyprus economy was transformed from an exporter of minerals in the 60’s and early 70’s to an international tourist and services centre in the 80’s and 90’s. Although, geographically Cyprus is part of Asia, its people have a high standard of living and live like southern Europeans. The tourist sector is very important to the economy of Cyprus, as revenue from tourism is accounted for half of the total foreign exchange earnings from the exports of goods and services. Additionally, 40500 persons are directly employed in the tourist industry. The transport sector in Cyprus is the country’s largest and more rapidly growing nal energy consumer. Road transport still dominates over the whole sector with private cars be the prevailing transport means in the country. In the building sector most of the energy is consumed during the summer period (May to October) when air-conditioning is needed. There is of course a denite heating period (late November to March), however the ambient
8
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
temperature in winter rarely falls below 10oC in
Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism.
the seaside towns and at daytime it is at 20oC
The Institute of Energy was established in
or above with plenty of sunshine and little or no
2000. Its main aim is the development and
need for heating.
promotion of renewable energy sources and
Most of the households are equipped with
the dissemination of nancially viable energy
Central hot water systems (diesel boilers). Split
technologies in Cyprus. It closely collaborates
type air-conditioning units operating in heating
with the Energy Service of the Ministry of
mode are also used as heater in wintertime.
Commerce Industry and Tourism. However it
LPG heaters are used for space heating in many
has greater exibility in collaborating with other
households especially in rural areas and only few
local and international organizations, being an
households still utilize kerosene.
organization not depending directly from the state.
Electricity is mainly used in the electrical appliances rather than for space heating,
Solar industry is comprised of about 35
whereas solar is used for water heating.
small and medium sized companies, with a gross output at approximately 7 million
1.2 Conditions for the development of RES and RUE
euros[40]. Around 400 people are employed
Support for innovative energy technologies
of Standards (CYS), has established the
in Solar industry. The Cyprus Organization testing and certication standards for collectors
Development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) was a priority of the Cyprus energy policy
and systems (CYS259/92, CYS263/92 and
during the last years and to that end a number
CYS209/91), which are compatible with
of supportive measures have been taken such as
European Standards[44], showing the high level
the establishment of the Applied Energy Centre
of know-how in this eld.
and of the Institute of Energy. Additionally, the existence of a strong solar industry is considered as an advantage in the topic of further RES development. The Applied Energy Centre was established in 1986 to serve as the focal point for all renewable effort in the country. It oversees the implementation of the national renewable energy program, the main aim of which is to bring viable renewable energy technologies to a level of wide scale acceptance. The Centre has its own building with a workshop, ofces, a laboratory, an outdoor solar panel testing rig and library facilities. This is a governmental department under the Energy Service of the
Figure 1. The island of Cyprus
9
Investors interest
According to the existing policies a grants scheme for the promotion of the Renewable Energy Sources was established during the period 2002 - 2010. The scheme provides nancial incentives in the form of government grants for the promotion of investments in the eld of energy saving and energy production from renewable energy sources. Due to the recently ofcial announcement for the commencement of the NEW Grants Scheme for the promotion of RES and Energy Conservation, a lot of foreign investors have expressed interest in RES investments. On the other hand Cypriots wish to get the nancial incentives provided by the government in order to invest for energy production for their own uses. The utilization of RES seems to develop rapidly as a consequence of the formulation of the Grant Scheme. Currently, in Cyprus due to favorable climate conditions the solar energy is extensively used especially for the production of sanitary hot water. The present image of Solar Water Heating Systems is excellent in Cyprus among individual users: • In individual houses – people are satised with their SWHS’s and would buy a new one if they had to replace their old one. • In ats – people would like to “switch to solar”. • In hotels and apartments – SWHS is a “must” for any new hotel builder. However, the solar industry managers seem to be more sceptical and the problems faced by the Cypriot Industry, at present, are: • Non-expanding domestic market, so it appears as necessity to promote export sales; • To disengage from the highly saturated market of individual SWHS´s in favour of collective
10
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
• The contribution that such an activity will
housing systems, tourism and health facilities,
have to local development.
and industrial hot water processes.
• The new legislative framework giving policy
• New solar application should be investigated
instruments for the penetration of RES which
i.e. space heating and cooling.
has been established recently in Cyprus. Public attitude
In general people react favorably to any new
1.3 Legislative framework for RES
development that adds value and improves
A rapidly growing interest in investments
their living standards. Predictably, they oppose any new development that puts those
concerning RES exists in Cyprus, since the
standards in jeopardy. Consumer motivation
favorable legislative framework and tariff for
is not necessary in Cyprus market as
RES was enacted, motivating the private sector.
the SHWS have already penetrated in
A support fund has been created aiming at
the market and each customer considers
the support of RES in Cyprus. The revenues of
these systems necessary for households. The
this fund are coming from the consumers paying
electricity prices in Cyprus are relatively
an additional tax in the kWh’s price (+0.13C£
high in comparison with other Mediterranean
cents1/kWh). The objective of this fund is to provide
Countries and therefore house owners prefer to “switch to solar”. Cypriot consumers utilize
support of the price of electricity produced by
SHWS as the payback period is short; they
Renewables. According to the new legislative
are trouble free, long life and simple during
framework, AEC is obliged to buy in priority
installation. Furthermore, it is considered that
the RES electricity produced by independent
they improve the quality of life.
producers in a xed price (3.7C£ cents /kWh).
Problems have been arising related to
For the wind farms the additional support during
wind farms as the citizens do not wish the
the rst ve years of operation, is +1.7C£ cents/
development of wind farms in the nearby eld
kWh, then it is dened given the recorded mean
creating the “not in my back yard syndrome”.
wind speed. For the Photovoltaics the additional support is
A good example is the case of the Electricity Authority of Cyprus intending to invest in
+8.3C£ cents/kWh and the subsidy is 40-50%
a wind farm in Limassol and the licensing
(maximum amount of grant £7,000- £9,500).
procedure was stopped due to the citizens’
For the hydro plants, there is no additional
opposition. These phenomena occurred due
support, thus the xed price is 3.7C£ cents /kWh
to the ignorance of RES applications, their
and the subsidy is 20%-30% (maximum amount
advantages and disadvantages.
of grant 30,000). Finally, a subsidy of the order of 30-40%
Furthermore, the prospects of exploiting RES today on the island are very encouraging
of the total investment cost is provided for
given:
biomass units and for the production of biofuels
• The maturity of several RES technologies.
(maximum amount of grant £400,000). Cents of Cyprus pound (Exchange rate: 1£=1,7€).
11
1.4 The present work In the present work the main results of the project “Towards a White Paper for RES and RUE Strategy and Action Plan for the Republic of Cyprus”, supported by the Altener programme are presented. The aim of this project was to dene a strategy and action plan for RES and RUE in Cyprus This outcome is going to assist the competent authorities of Cyprus Republic to establish their strategy for the full harmonization of Cyprus with EU’s policy framework and targets in the energy sector. In formulating this action plan, a detailed analysis of the energy system of Cyprus was carried out. The main issues connected with the formulation and realisation of plans aiming at optimally integrating RES and RUE in large autonomous energy systems were analysed. Three alternative scenarios according to the degree of RES/RUE penetration were established. The rst scenario named “Baseline Scenario” is an attempt to estimate the RES penetration in the energy system of Cyprus as expected until 2010 without any special policies implemented. The second one, named “implementation of existing policies scenario” as its name indicates, estimates the expected RES penetration if the existing policies will be implemented. The last scenario named “Advanced policies scenario”, investigates the possibility of increase the RES penetration by the implementation of new advanced policies in order to achieve the established targets. The three established scenarios were comparatively evaluated by terms of Cost-Benet Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis, in order to select the optimal one to serve as the basis of an action plan for RES and RUE integration in Cyprus.
12
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
2. THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF CYPRUS 2.1 General overview
imports. The sector of solid fuels is of no
The energy system of Cyprus is an isolated
signicant importance to Cyprus and this
energy system without indigenous sources of
situation is not expected to change in the near
energy apart from renewable potential and is
future. Cyprus has no gas sector. Various feasibility
therefore almost entirely dependent on imported fuels. Imported crude oil and nal oil products
studies have examined the possibility of
cover 97% of the country’s primary energy
introduction of the natural gas to the energy
supply needs.
system of Cyprus (piping gas from Syria). Even though there is no gas sector at present, the
Energy consumption has increased by 7% per
legislation to harmonise with EU requirements is
year in recent years.
prepared. The contribution of renewable energy sources to the country’s energy needs is about 2% by terms of primary energy, mainly from solar energy. Solar energy is used for water heating and heating of swimming pools at hotels. No other uses have been developed. This situation is in clear contradiction to the government’s commitment to the United Nation’s Kyoto Protocol to cut down its CO2 emissions and work towards a sustainable energy sector. The potential of Renewable Gasoline and Kerosene (Jet Fuels) are almost
energy is signicant and capable of meeting
entirely used in the transport sector. Diesel oil
an important share of energy supply, especially
is used in all demand sectors with the transport
if combined with investments on RUE
sector absorbing 50%. LPG is used in the
technologies.
domestic and services sector (mainly hotels
Although wind energy has not yet been
and restaurants). Coal and fuel oil (light and
exploited in the country, the Cyprus Wind Atlas
heavy) are used only in the Industrial demand
shows a few locations in the eastern part and
side. Heavy fuel oil is the predominant fuel for
southern coastal areas and in the adjacent
electricity generation.
inland areas that may be considered favorable
Cyprus has no coal mining industry. Some
for the production of wind energy.
small quantities are imported and used for
Biomass appears to be promising but few
cement production by two privately owned
activities have been reported in this area.
enterprises. There are no restrictions on coal
Biogas exploitation from Municipal Solid Waste
13
(MSW) disposed of in landlls has been reviewed for Nicosia, Pafos, Limassol and Larnaca. The expected landll gas production or the burn of solid wastes may justify in the future the installation of small co-generation units. The hydro potential is expected to be very limited especially after the last year’s water shortages. However, on an experimental basis, there is a small hydro plant at Asprokremos Dam with a nomimal power of 500kW although it has been out of operation in recent years due to water shortages.
2.2. Energy supply The ofcial data of the European Commission presented in the “European Energy and transport trends to 2030” [13] are used as a basis for the analysis of the energy situation in Cyprus. Total primary energy consumption
By terms of primary energy supply, the energy supply in Cyprus is based almost entirely to the oil (97%). The energy supply is completed by a small contribution of RES (2%) for water heating, and solids (1%) for industrial applications.
14
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
water heating in the residential and commercial
Figure 2.1 Total primary energy supply in 2000 (Total: 2.43Mtoe)
and tourist sectors, is a specicity of Cypriot economy. Figure 2.3 Net domestic Consumption per fuel Total: 1.66Mtoe (year 2000)
Source: European Energy and transport trends to 2030, EuropeanCommission
Net Domestic consumption
Source: “European Energy and transport trends to 2030”, European Commission
In gure 2.2 the net domestic consumption per
RES contribution to the nal demand
sector is presented. The transport sector is the
In Cyprus, renewable energy sources constitute
largest energy consumer in Cyprus accounting for
the only indigenous source of energy. Their
52% of nal consumption. The industrial sector
contribution to meeting the energy needs of the
accounts for 27%, the Residential for 13% and
country is limited (approximately 2% by terms of
the Tertiary Sector accounts for about 8%.
primary energy), mainly from solar energy used for water heating and biomass used for domestic
Figure 2.2 Net domestic Consumption per sector -Total: 1.66Mtoe (year 2000)
heating in individual woodstoves. Cyprus is one of the leading countries in the use of solar water heating systems. About 90% of individual houses, 80% of apartments, and 50% of hotels are equipped with solar water heating systems.
2.3. The electrical system The electrical system of the island of Cyprus is an autonomous system, which depends almost
Source: European Energy and transport trends to 2030, European Commission
entirely on energy imports given the fact that the island has no indigenous primary energy
Looking at the net domestic consumption per fuel (gure 2.3), oil products contribution is
resources. The island’s grid presents limited
very high (80%), mainly through transportation.
prospects of interconnection to the European
Electricity (16%), other (solar) (2%) and solids
Union networks. Therefore the Electricity
(coal) (2%) provides a lower contribution.
Production relies entirely on imported fuels,
The high share of solar energy, used for
mainly heavy fuel oil.
15
Electricity demand
Conventional electricity production
The total electricity consumption in 2002 reached 3401GWh [6].
Three power stations with a total installed
About 40% was consumed in the
capacity of 988 MW are under operation (mainly
Commercial sector (Tourism and public sector are
steam and gas turbines). The Dhekelia Power
included), 34% in the domestic sector and 21%
Station is located on the south east coast of the
in the industry. By the analysis of the whole data
island adjacent to Dhekelia Old Power Station
during the period 1995-2002 is shown that the
(build in 1952 and now decommissioned). The
average annual growth rate is 6.5%.
Moni Power Station and the new Vasilikos Power Station are located at the east of Limassol on
Figure 2.5 Electricity Consumption per sector in 2002 (Total: 3401GWh)
the south coast of Cyprus. The electrical grid of Cyprus is a centralized system characterized by high transportation losses.
2.4. Comparison with other countries The economic and energy status of Cyprus in comparison with European average and Greece are presented in the following (gures 2.7, 2.8, 2.9 and 2.10). The indexes which were selected are: The conventional installed capacity (thermal
• Primary energy consumption per capita
units) was 988MW in the end of 2002. The peak
• Energy consumption per unit of GDP
load demand was 775MW in 2002 and 689MW
• CO2 emissions per capita
in 2001, represented an annual increase of 12%,
• CO2 emissions per unit of GDP
while the average annual growth is 6.6% during the period 1990-2001. Figure 2.6 Conventional electricity production
16
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
Figure 2.25 CO2 emissions per unit of GDP
Figure 2.7. Primary energy consumption per capita
Cyprus has steadily the highest CO2 emissions
Cyprus has the highest rate of increase in
per unit of GDP (about double of the EU
primary energy consumption per capita.
average). Figure 2.8. Energy consumption per unit of GDP
Cyprus has the highest energy consumption per unit of GDP and the highest rate of increase, while the European average shows a decrease, and in Greece seems to be steady. Figure 2.9. CO2 emissions per capita
Although Cyprus had the lowest CO2 emissions per inhabitant in 1990, it has the highest in 2000, with the highest rate of increase. Today, the CO2 emissions per capita are 9 tonnes, one of the highest rates world-wide.
17
2.5. Forecast
Figure 2.13 Final energy demand by fuel and forecast
Forecast of primary energy supply
The following forecasts (Figures 2.11, 2.12, 2.13) are based on ACE and PRIMES model [13], which takes into consideration macroeconomic, demographic and sectoral activity projections, covering the major energy consuming sectors in industry, households, agriculture, tertiary sector and transportation up to 2020. Source: ”European Energy and transport trends to 2030”, European Commission
Figure 2.11. Total primary energy supply and forecasts (mtoe)
Forecast of electricity demand
In gure 2.14 the electricity forecast is presented. Two ofcial forecasts are presented; the rst one is the ofcial forecast until 2010 by EAC [6] and the second one presented in the document of the EC “European Energy and transport trends to 2030” achieved by the European Commission [13]. As it can be seen there is high deviation of the two curves. Figure 2.14 Forecast of electricity demand Source: ”European Energy and transport trends to 2030”, European Commission
Figure 2.12. Final energy demand by sector and forecast
Source: ”European Energy and transport trends to 2030”, European Commission
EAC aiming at high safety and reliability standards in the provision of power supplies has made a generous forecast. On the other hand, the second forecast based on a macroeconomic approach [3], seems to underestimate the electricity demand in the near future.
18
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
The mean daily sunshine, i.e. the time interval
The proposal of the NTUA is to follow the existent rate of increase as recorded during
from sunrise to sunset, for Cyprus varies from 9.8
the last years, and achieve the same electricity
hours in December to 14.5 hours in June [42].
demand as the one dened by the EC’s model
Figure 2.15. Solar potential
in 2020.
2.6. RES potential In Cyprus, renewable energy sources constitute the only indigenous source of energy. In this task the main renewable sources in the island are presented by terms of: • Availability of RES • Natural and technical restrictions to their exploitation • Geographical and seasonal distribution of the Wind potential
exploitable potential
The wind in Cyprus is affected by the following factors: • From anticyclones moved from west to east, from the Siberian anticyclone during the winter and from the low pressure created in the area of India and expanded until the area of Cyprus during the summer. • Sea breezes generated in coastal areas as a result of the different heat capacities of sea and land, which give rise to different rates of heating and cooling. • Mountain-valley winds created when cool Solar potential
mountain air warms up in the morning and
The Meteorologic service of Cyprus has classied
begins to rise – while cool air from the valley
Cyprus into 14 zones from climatic point of view.
moves to replace it. During the night the ow
However, from the considerations, affecting the
reverses.
use of solar energy, the classication may be
In Cyprus there is available wind potential,
broadened to 3 zones: Coastal, Central plains and Mountains
[41].
which can be exploited. In the following gure
The collection of sunshine duration
the mean wind velocity in a height of 10 meters
data at a number of meteorological stations
above the ground are presented. There are
started in 1959. Statistical analysis shows that
some areas with mean wind velocity 5-6m/sec,
all parts of Cyprus enjoy a very sunny climate.
while there are few areas with 7m/sec.
19
In the above map, the available potential
In addition to the biomass prospects, there
is presented. Additional restrictions should be
is signicant biogas potential. Referring to
taken into consideration, in order to discover the
electrical energy produced by the exploitation of
exploitable wind energy potential:
landll biogas from the waste disposal plant. The biomass potential can be summarized as:
• Subregions dedicated to special activities
• Exploitation of agricultural residues
must be excluded
• Energy crops (Problem of water availability)
• Subregions of less than 5m/s are of no
• Three big waste disposal plant:
interest at least for the current level of
•
technology and the legislative framework.
Nicosia: 100,000tn wastes/y, capacity:
• Subregions of very high altitudes or slope.
1.1MWe (1.5MWth), 7.5GWh/y
Figure 2.16 Wind potential (annual mean wind velocity)
•
Lemessos: 150,000tn wastes/y,
capacity: 1.75MWe (2.5MWth), 15.6GWh/y •
Larnaka: 45,000tn wastes/y, capacity:
0.45MWe (0.7MWth), 2.7GWh/y •
Total: 295.000 tn wastes/y, capacity:
3.3 MWe (4.7MWth), 25.8GWh/y • Exploitation of landll gas from the waste disposal plant • Burning of solid wastes Dr. Ioaniis P. Glecas
• Biofuels
Biomass potential
Hydro potential
The theoretical potential is always estimated
In Cyprus the potential for small hydro plants
from data for the cultivated areas for each
is limited, especially after the last years water
crop and the residue yield. Then the available
shortages. Although a comprehensive study for
potential can be evaluated with the assumption
Cyprus hydro potential has not been conducted,
that only a portion of the theoretical potential
the suitable sites are estimated adequate for
is available for energy exploitation, since
about 1MW installed capacity.
there are other uses for most agricultural residues. Current biomass exploitation refers to a signicant amount of agricultural residues in connection to the traditional wood stoves and the prospects for the development of energy crops, even though, further analysis and on site investigation, in order to clarify the attitude of the local agricultural associations and dene possible difculties on harvesting of agricultural by-products for bio-electricity production.
20
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
3. ESTABLISHMENT OF SCENARIOS The third scenario named “Advanced
3.1. Rationale for the formulation of the Scenarios
Policies scenario”, investigates the possibility of increase the RES penetration by the
The establishment of the scenarios was
implementation of new advanced policies, in
formulated on the basis of the analysis of
order to achieve the established targets. It
energy demand, the available RES potential, the
should be noted that this scenario has been
analysed technical issues and the non-technical
formulated on a basis: “Which should be the
and legislative issues. Moreover, the investor’s
RES and RUE integration in the energy system
interest, the maturity and cost-effectiveness of
and which additional advanced policies should be
the technologies and the public attitude have
established in order to achieve the established
been also considered.
targets?”
The rst scenario named “Baseline Scenario” is an attempt to estimate the RES
3.2. RUE in the building sector
penetration in the energy system of Cyprus
Oil and electricity are the major energy sources
as expected until 2010 without any special
in the residential/tertiary sector.
policies implemented. This means that very low
The potential of reducing energy demand
implementation of RES and RUE is expected.
in the building stock of the tertiary sector
This scenario is to be used as a point of
is assessed. In the frame of the current
reference in the evaluation procedure.
assessment two building uses are dealt with, a) the residential because it is the largest sector and so any small reduction at a unit level -the residence- entails a large overall reduction at the building stock level and, b) the tourist accommodation due to the important place it has in the economy of the island and the very large energy demand in electricity. The current report outlines the assessment on the potential of energy reduction. Three potential scenarios of demand reduction are formulated, associated with the level of energy
The second scenario named
demand reduction intensity.
“Implementation of existing policies
The rst one is the so-called business as usual
scenario”, as its name indicates, estimates the expected RES penetration if the existing policies
which, in this report is called ‘baseline scenario’.
will be fully implemented. The approved funds
It estimates the reduction if no measure is
have been also taken into consideration.
applied. It is noted that a small reduction is
21
anticipated due to the fact a) energy equipment
• The current legislation on efciency of boilers/
such as heating systems burner/boiler, light-bulbs
burners
etc. available on the market today have a better efciency and so they can potentially save energy.
The third scenario will result in a high reduction
Furthermore, due to the age of the building stock
and includes both the above scenarios and
there will be a need for building refurbishment
specic initiatives such as nancial support for
such as replacement of glazing etc. Similarly
the nal users or for the market actors.
double glazing will replace single glazing since the
3.3. RES for electricity
latter is gradually taken away from the market. Taken into account this reasoning the following
Wind farms
measures are considered for this scenario:
Wind energy is to be exploited during the
Residential
next years in Cyprus, since it is the most
• burner/boiler system on the central heating
techno-economically viable source for electricity
plants and the replacement of individual oil
production. Although the wind potential can
heaters
not be characterized as abundant, there is an
• single glazing with double (reduction of
interest for implementation of wind plants in the
inltration is also taken into account)
best sites.
• Roof insulation
The electricity contribution of these units is
• Replacement of solar collectors
depended on the mean wind velocity of the
Tourist Accommodation
site. Given the wind potential (Figure 2.23) the
• burner/boiler system on the central heating
capacity factor of the wind farms varies between
plants and the replacement of individual oil
26% in the most suitable sites and 18% in the
heaters
worst. In the table 3.1 the expected efciency
• single glazing with double (reduction of
(capacity factor) of the wind farms is presented.
inltration is also taken into account) Table 3.1. Capacity factor of wind farms
• Roof insulation • Efcient lighting • Replacement of solar collectors The second is an intermediate one that includes
Wind farms
Capacity factors
Mean wind velocity
First 50MW Next 100MW Last 100MW
26% 23% 18%
6.5 6 5.5
Annual electricity production (GWh /MW installed) 2.28 2.01 1.58
legislative measures for energy efciency. These measures are the:
In the “Baseline scenario” the wind farms will
• TIR (Thermal Insulation Regulation). It has
not exceed 50MW in 2010 and 150MW in 2020. In
been proposed but not yet enforced. Its
the “Implementation of existing policies scenario”
enforcement is foreseen for the end of year
about 80MW are expected in 2010 and 200MW in
2005 or early 2006.
2020. Finally in the “Advanced Policies scenario”
• The new Directive on Energy Efciency of the
the target is for 110MW in 2010 and 250MW in
Commission
2020.
22
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
In the “Baseline scenario” the MSW plants will
PV
The use of photovoltaic solar energy in Cyprus
not exceed 3.3MW in 2010 and 4.3MW in 2020. In
is still in its infancy. Photovoltaics have
the “Implementation of existing policies scenario”
been used by the Cyprus Telecommunication
about 3.3MW are expected in 2010 and 5MW in
Authority (CYTA) for the telephone kiosks
2020. Finally in the “Advanced Policies scenario”
and transmitters. The Cyprus Radio-Telephone
the target is for 5.5MW in 2010 and 8.5MW in
Authority has also used photovoltaics for
2020.
transmitters. The nowadays installed capacity of photovoltaics (remote systems) is estimated
Small hydro
at 0.2MW [43].
In Cyprus the potential for small hydro plants
Given the solar potential in Cyprus the PV
is strictly dened. The suitable sites are
plants are expected to have a capacity factor
adequate for about 1MW installed capacity.
17%. In all scenarios the installed capacity
Although the electricity production is strongly
of PV’s is limited due to the high required
site dependent, an estimation of an average
installation cost.
capacity factor is 68%. In the “Baseline scenario” the small hydro capacity will reach 1MW in 2020. In the “Implementation of existing policies scenario” the same installed capacity is expected in 2010, while in the “Advanced Policies scenario” in 2007. Solar Hot Water Systems
Although the degree of SHWS penetration in the domestic sector is very high (About 90% of individual houses and 80% of apartments), there are prospects for utilization of solar thermal applications in the hotel industry, In the “Baseline scenario” the PV’s will not
the commercial-public and industrial sectors.
exceed 1MW in 2010 and 2.5MW in 2020. In the
Additionally, the utilization of solar thermal
“Implementation of existing policies scenario”
energy for other applications (i.e. space heating
about 2MW are expected in 2010 and 5MW in
and space cooling) can give further prospects
2020. Finally in the “Advanced Policies scenario”
after 2010.
the target is for 3MW in 2010 and 8MW in 2020.
In the “Baseline scenario” the rate of new installations is about 5000m2 per year. In the
Biomass - Municipal Solid waste
“Implementation of existing policies scenario” the
The most promising perspective is the
expected rate is about 7500m2 per year, and in
exploitation of municipal solid waste for
the “Advanced Policies scenario” the target is for
co-generation of electricity and heat.
10000m2 per year.
23
3.4. RES in transport
Table 3.5. Development of RES (Implementation of existing policies scenario)
Concerning RES penetration in transport, the
Implementation of existing policies scenario 2002 2005 2010 Wind (MW) 0 20 80 PV (MW) 0 0,2 2 Biomass-MSW (MWe)-(MWth) 0 0,45-0,7 3,3-4,7 Small hydro (MW) 0 0,4 1 SHWS (1000*m2) 655 675 712,5 Biofuels (1000*tn) 0 18,3 60
proposed solution is to produce and mix biofuels with diesel. In the “baseline scenario” the kickoff of the production of biofuels is expected not earlier than 2010, when this process will be more mature and cost-effective. In the “Implementation of existing policies
Table 3.6. RES supply in electricity (Implementation of existing policies scenario)
scenario” about 32000 tn biofuels will be
2002 wind (GWh) 0 pv (GWh) 0 Biomass (GWh) 0 Small hydro (GWh) 0 RES electricity production (GWh) 0 Electricity Generated before RUE (GWh) 3785 Electricity Generated after RUE(GWh) 3785 RES supply in electricity demand(%) 0%
produced in 2007, while they are needed 509000 tn in 2010 (“Advanced Policies scenario”) in order to achieve the target of RES supply in transport sector (5,75% in 2010).
3.5. Details of the scenarios
2005 46 0,3 3,0 2,4 51 4340 4297 1%
2010 174 3,0 21,7 6 205 4950 4777 4%
2015 315 5,3 28,3 6 355 5440 5114 7%
2020 394 7,6 32,9 6 441 5850 5353 8%
Table 3.7. RES supply in heat and transport (Implementation of existing policies scenario)
Baseline Scenario Table 3.2. Development of RES (Baseline scenario)
Wind (MW) PV (MW) Biomass-MSW (MWe)-(MWth) Small hydro (MW) SHWS (1000*m2) Biofuels (1000*tn)
2015 2020 150 200 3,5 5 4,3-6 5-7 1 1 750 787,5 110 160
2002 2005 2010 0 10 50 0 0,2 1 0 0,45-0,7 3,3-4,7 0 0,2 0,5 655 670 695 0 0 5
2015 100 1,6 4,3-6 0,75 720 30
Biomass heat (ktoe) SHWS (ktoe) RES heat (ktoe) Heat demand (ktoe) Heat demand with RUE measures (ktoe) RES supply in heat demand (%) Transport demand (ktoe) RES in transport (ktoe) RES supply in earth transportation (%)
2020 150 2,5 4,3-6 1 745 80
Table 3.3. RES supply in electricity (Baseline Scenario)
2002 wind (GWh) 0 pv (GWh) 0 Biomass (GWh) 0 Small hydro (GWh) 0 RES electricity production (GWh) 0 Electricity Generated before RUE (GWh) 3785 Electricity Generated after RUE(GWh) 3785 RES supply in electricity demand(%) 0%
2005 23 0,3 3,0 1,2 27 4340 4297 1%
2010 114 1,5 21,7 3 140 4950 4777 3%
2015 215 2,4 28,3 4,5 250 5440 5114 5%
2020 315 3,8 28,3 6 353 5850 5353 7%
2005 0,4 33,3 33,7 875 867 3,9% 650 0 0,0%
2005 0,4 33,5 33,9 875 867 3,9% 650 1,48 0,2%
2010 2015 2020 2,655 3,39 3,954 35,41 37,27 39,14 38,07 40,66 43,09 897,2 1015 1124 865,8 953,9 1029 4,4% 4,3% 4,2% 717 740 760 4,86 8,91 12,96 0,7% 1,2% 1,7%
Table 3.8. Development of RES (Advanced policies scenario)
Advanced Policies scenario Wind (MW) PV (MW) Biomass-MSW (MWe)-(MWth) Small hydro (MW) SHWS (1000*m2) Biofuels (1000*tn)
Table 3.4. RES supply in heat and transport (Baseline scenario)
2002 Biomass heat (ktoe) 0 SHWS (ktoe) 32,6 RES heat (ktoe) 32,6 Heat demand (ktoe) 867 Heat demand with RUE measures (ktoe) 867 RES supply in heat demand (%) 3,8% Transport demand (ktoe) 620 RES in transport (ktoe) 0 RES supply in earth transportation (%) 0,0%
2002 0 32,6 32,6 867 867 3,8% 620 0 0,0%
2002 0 0 0 0 655 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 20 110 200 250 0,5 3 5,5 8 0,45-0,7 5,5-7,7 7,5-10,5 8,5-12,1 0,5 1 1 1 680 730 780 830 100 509 555 600
Table 3.9. RES supply in electricity (Advanced policies scenario)
2010 2015 2020 2,655 3,39 3,39 34,54 35,78 37,03 37,2 39,17 40,42 897,2 1015 1124 865,8 953,9 1029 4,3% 4,1% 3,9% 717 740 760 0,405 2,43 6,48 0,1% 0,3% 0,9%
2002 wind (GWh) 0 pv (GWh) 0 Biomass (GWh) 0 Small hydro (GWh) 0 RES electricity production (GWh) 0 Electricity Generated before RUE (GWh) 3785 Electricity Generated after RUE(GWh) 3785 RES supply in electricity demand(%) 0%
24
2005 46 0,76 3,0 3 52 4340 4297 1%
2010 235 4,5 36,1 6 281 4950 4703 6%
2015 394 8,3 49,3 6 458 5440 5005 9%
2020 473 12,1 55,8 6 547 5850 5236 10%
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
policies scenario the rate of RES supply is about
Table 3.10. RES supply in heat and transport (Advanced policies scenario) 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 Biomass heat (ktoe) 0 0,4 4,35 5,932 6,836 SHWS (ktoe) 32,6 33,8 36,28 38,77 41,25 RES heat (ktoe) 32,6 34,2 40,63 44,7 48,09 Heat demand (ktoe) 867 875 897,2 1015 1124 Heat demand with RUE measures (ktoe) 867 867 852,4 933,6 1006 RES supply in heat demand (%) 3,8% 3,9% 4,8% 4,8% 4,8% Transport demand (ktoe) 620 650 717 740 760 RES in transport (ktoe) 0 8,1 41,23 44,96 48,6 RES supply in earth transportation (%) 0,0% 1,2% 5,8% 6,1% 6,4%
2.5% in 2010. Even in the advanced policies scenario the rate of RES remains less than the target. Figure 3.1. RES supply in primary energy consumption
3.6. Indicators characterizing the scenarios. In the following a comparative presentation of the three scenarios was formulated in terms of: • Deviations from targets • Financial and Economic (Comparison of the
The ofcial target of 6% RES contribution to
required nancial resources like investment
electricity supply in 2010 can be achieved by
cost, subsidies – support cost)
the advanced policies scenario. Figure 3.2 shows
• Environmental impacts (Avoided emissions of
that the contribution of RES to electricity supply
CO2, SO2, NOx and PM10).
in 2010 could vary between 2.9% (baseline
• Social impacts (Employment created)
scenario) and 6% (advanced policies scenario). By the full implementation of current policies the RES contribution will reach 4.3% in 2010. Figure 3.2. RES supply in electricity consumption
Deviations from targets
In the heating sector, the situation seems to
IIn the following comparative chart (gure 3.1)
be xed. The RES contribution is already near
the RES supply in primary energy consumption
4% thanks to the high penetration of solar hot
is presented. The unofcial target for 6% RES
water systems in the domestic sector. For the
contribution to primary energy in 2010 seems to
new apartments a solar hot water system is
be very difcult to be achieved. In the current
considered as standard equipment, as well as
25
the replacement of the existing systems with similar after the end of their lifetime. Some small ups and downs in the rate of RES supply in heat are justied by the introduction of medium scale CHP Municipal solid waste plants. Figure 3.3. RES supply in heat
Finally, the most difcult target of introduction of RES in the transport sector (5.75% in 2010) seems to be unattainable, since by the current policies the expected rate is less than 1%. Figure 3.4. RES supply in transportation
Financial and Economic
The required investment costs for the implementation of the scenarios are presented in the gure 3.5. By terms of present value the investment cost is presented in the table 3.10.
26
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
Figure 3.7. Yearly avoided CO2 emissions (2003-2020)
Figure 3.5. Annual Investment costs of the alternatives scenarios 2003-2010 (1000€)
Social impacts
Table 3.11. Present Value of the Investment cost (1000€)
Advanced policies Full implementation of current policies Baseline scenario
2003-2010 229916 102899 58383
The created employment is presented in tables
2003-2020 344864 197702 129416
3.13 and 3.14 in man-years. Table 3.13. Created Employment due to the alternatives scenarios (2003-2010)
2003-2010 During (man-years) Construction Advanced policies 272 Full implementation of current policies 193 Baseline scenario 124
According to the existing legislation (subsidies approved and support in the electricity market price), the required cost for the support of RES is presented in the gure 3.6, while in the table
Table 3.14. Created Employment due to the alternatives scenarios (2003-2020)
3.11 the present value of the required resources
2003-2020 During (man-years) Construction Advanced policies 602 Full implementation of current policies 455 Baseline scenario 331
is shown. Figure 3.6. Annual Required Subsidy and support cost of the alternatives scenarios (1000€) 2003-2010
Table 3.12. Present Value of the Required Subsidy and Support cost (1000€)
Advanced policies Full implementation of current policies Baseline scenario
2003-2010 63924 21433 10835
During Total O&M employment 917 1189 634 826 396 520
2003-2020 125247 70994 44904
Environmental impacts
The avoided CO2 emission due to the alternatives scenarios is presented in gure 3.7.
27
During Total O&M employment 5322 5924 3793 4248 2575 2906
4. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION 4.1. Introduction The established scenarios were comparatively evaluated in order to select the optimal one to serve as the basis of an action plan for RES and RUE integration in Cyprus. Two different methodologies were used: a) CostBenet Analysis, and b) Multi-Criteria Analysis, offering an objective and subjective evaluation perspective, respectively. Firstly a Cost-Benet Analysis was carried out. The positive and negative impacts associated with each scenario were taken into account in order to remove existing market distortions by translating impacts on environmental and social goods in monetary units and by correcting market values through shadow pricing. The analysis indicates the action plan presenting the higher Benet-Cost ratio and point on the deviation between private and social interests, which may be removed through policy measures (e.g. subsidies). In sequence, the same positive and negative impacts, in the form of quantitative or qualitative indicators formed the criteria of a multi-criteria problem. Solving this problem aims at ranking the alternative scenarios and determining the one ranked in the rst place. The impacts – criteria were weighted and counterbalanced through questionnaires by local actors. Trade-offs between priority impacts and conicting views were revealed in order to arrive at the most preferred action plan. It should be noted that four additional to the three main scenarios were evaluated. Using the “advanced policies” and the “current policies”
28
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
scenarios as a basis, two new scenarios were
• Wind farm (10 MW)
examined one with more wind penetration
• Photovoltaic (200kW)
and one with less wind penetration. In
• Small hydro units (200 kW)
all three scenarios of the same group (i.e
• Biomass CHP (1 MWe)
“advanced policies”, “advanced policies more
• Solar hot water systems (3m2)
wind”, “advanced policies less wind”) the same
• Biofuels production (10000tn)
target is achieved, but with different mix of RES
Table 4.2 presents the Benet-Cost ratios
implementation.
characterizing typical RES units, which are assumed to contribute to the proposed
Table 4.1. Additional scenarios used for the comparative evaluation
A B C A1 A2 B1 B2
Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario A1 Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Scenario B2
scenarios. The indices reect the evaluation
- Advanced policies - Full implementation of current Policies - Baseline scenario - Advanced policies (more wind) - Advanced policies (less wind) - Current policies (more wind) - Current policies (less wind)
perspective of a private investor (B/CF), of the national economy (B/CE) and of the society as whole (B/CE,S). Table 4.2. B/C indices of typical RES units
B/C Technology E,S WIND PVs Hydro Biomass-CHP
4.2. Cost-Benet Analysis Cost benet analysis was performed in two different stages:
Solar WHS
• Typical plants for each type of technology
Biofuels
have been separately analyzed. The aim
Typical Capacity 10 MW 200 kW 200 kW 1 MWe
B/CF 1.17 0.53 1.70 1.89
B/CE 1.12 0.25 2.57 3.54
3.27 0.95 4.74 6.39
3 m2
1.13
1.37
2.84
10000tn
0.93
1.46
1.47
The following remarks can be made:
is to estimate on a comparative basis the
• Wind energy: Investments in wind energy
protability (from a nancial, economic and
exploitation are marginally attractive for
social point of view) of each particular
private investors and at the same time they
technology and to identify technical or non-
are returning to the national economy and
technical parameters inuencing protability
the society much more than the engaged
indices. Additionally, the results of this stage
resources. It should be noted that the
are used in the next stage.
attractiveness is provided thanks to the
• The scenarios were analyzed by taking into
support given by the national fund for the
account the time distribution of relevant
promotion of RES. The slight decrease in the
plants-investments. The aim is to identify
index of the national economy is explained by
the degree at which the whole scenario
the support in the kWh’s price, which from
of introduction of RES to the energy
the point of view of the private investors is
system of Cyprus, through a combination of
benet, but from the point of view of the
technologies is attractive from a nancial,
national economy is a cost.
economic and social point of view.
• Photovoltaics: It is the only renewable
Analysis of distinct technologies
technology that with the current level of costs
The following typical plants have been analysed:
and efciency is proven to be non-protable.
29
Despite the high support given to the kWh
national economy and the society, the biofuels
produced, the nancial B/C ratio remains less
are presented as more attractive.
than one (0.53). Contrary to the most of the other case studies-technologies, the economic
Analysis of scenarios
B/C ratio is worse than the nancial, since
The analysis at this stage considers the
costs refer to the whole amount of economic
whole package of actions included in the
resources engaged, while the extra benets
seven alternative scenarios in Cyprus by taking
(avoided fuel cost) brought to the national
into account the time distribution of relevant
economy are not enough to counterbalance
investments.
the support offered to private investors.
Table 4.3 B/C indices for alternative scenarios
Scenario A - Advanced policies Scenario B - Full implementation of current Policies Scenario C - Baseline scenario Scenario A1 - Advanced policies (more wind) Scenario A2 - Advanced policies (less wind) Scenario B1 - Current policies (more wind) Scenario B2 - Current policies (less wind)
• Small Hydro: All the calculated B/C ratios are positive. It should be noted that the protability is in high degree site depending. Additionally, taking into consideration the variability of rainfalls in Cyprus, and the low
B/CF 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
B/CE 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2
B/CE,S 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.0
hydro potential, it is clear that signicant risk As shown in table 4.3 most of the scenarios
exist in this kind of investments.
seem to be affordable for private investors.
• CHP Biomass (Municipal solid waste): This kind of investment is proven to be
The scenarios with the most wind penetration
attractive not only for private investors, but
seem to be more protable than those with
for the national economy and the society, as
less wind. In most of the examined scenarios
well. This was expected thanks to the multi
private B/C indices are higher than 1, indicating
purpose of these units (electricity and heat
that promoting plans for the implementation
production).
of RES is a protable business as a whole. It furthermore shows that it is possible to
• Solar Water Heating: This technology enjoys high social acceptance and most of the houses
formulate these scenarios, by selecting the
in Cyprus use solar energy for water heating.
appropriate mix of technologies and providing
It should be noted that the protability by
support to the less protable ones, in order to
terms of private investor’s interest or even
make investments in all RES attractive for each
from the point of view of the national economy
individual private investor. In all the examined scenarios it holds that
and society, is similar to other technologies (wind, hydro, biomass) which should be
B/CF<B/CE, B/CS. Namely, economic indices vary
developed as well.
between 1.1-1.3, showing that benets for the national economy are much higher than the
• Biofuels: The nancial analysis shows that the high cost of biofuels production is an obstacle
value of the resources engaged. On the other
for the deployment. On the other hand taking
side, social benets are almost double of the
into consideration the positive impacts for the
associated costs.
30
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
These results are very positive for the
and operational.
prospects of RES and show that government and
The nal six criteria are the following:
society should strive for substantially increasing
• C1-Cost of Investment
the share of RES. It is namely shown that
• C2-Support Cost and Subsidy
such a shift is compatible with the market’s
• C3-% Deviation from EC penetration targets
major aspirations, but is also justied from
• C4- Avoided CO2 emissions
a broader perspective reecting the short and
• C5- Other avoided emissions
long term interests of the national economy
• C6-Total Employment
and of the society as a whole. The results furthermore show that these benets are
Weight Factors
large enough to fully cover any subsidies and
In order to capture the decision makers
support cost provided in order to encourage
preferences in front of the particular problem as dened in the specic decision context, a questionnaire was prepared and answered by decision makers of the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Tourism of Cyprus. The preferences are given in the form of weights which relate performances in one criterion to the performances in all other criteria.
private investors to undertake the technical and
Two weighting methods are used and the
nancial risks associated with RES investments.
obtained weights are calculated. The average weights are shown in the Table 4.4.
These results indicate that policies and measures for supporting the large-scale
Table 4.4 Average weights of criteria
integration of RES are not only justied, but
Criteria tors C1-Cost of Investment C2-Support Cost and Subsidy C3-% Deviation from the EC penetration targets C4-CO2 Avoided C5-Other Avoided Emissions C6-Total Employment
are rather imposed for increasing the efcient allocation of resources in the framework of sustainable development.
4.3. Multi-Criteria Analysis
Weight Fac22% 19% 20% 18% 13% 9%
Criteria Presentation Evaluation
The criteria selected for the multi-criteria
The scenarios established in the previous phase
problem represent the positive and the negative
were comparatively evaluated using the Multi-
impacts associated with each scenario in the
Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) method [53] in
form of quantitative or qualitative indicators.
order to select the optimal one to serve as
The set of criteria along which these actions
the basis of the action plan for RES and RUE
had to be evaluated were chosen in a way as to
integration in Cyprus.
express all the important aspects of the problem
The solution of the Multi-Criteria problem
considered, by at the same time being concise
31
aims at ranking the alternative scenarios and determining the one(s) ranked in the rst place. The evaluation was made for the period 2003-2010, since there are no targets for the year 2020 yet. The solution of the Multi-Criteria problem is the ranking of the alternative scenarios using their total scores. As shown in the table below: Table 6.5. Ranking of the alternative scenarios
Scenarios Scenario A1 –Advanced Policies (more wind) Scenario A –Advanced Policies Scenario A2 –Advanced Policies (less wind) Scenario B1 – Current Policies (more wind) Scenario B – Current Policies Scenario B2 – Current Policies (less wind) Scenario C – Base Line Scenario
Ranking 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
The outcome of the optimization procedure shows that the most preferable scenario, the one with the highest total score, is the Scenario A2-Advanced policies (more wind). The three rst scenarios are all the advanced policies scenarios. Although this group of scenarios has the highest cost of investment, and support cost & subsidy, it is preferable, since with its implementation the targets are achieved and the highest emissions are avoided. It is graduated with the highest scores in 6 from 9 criteria. In general, the “advanced policies” scenarios achieve higher scores than the “implementation of current policies” scenarios and are more preferable. The “Baseline scenario” has the lowest score.
4.4. Conclusions of the comparative evaluation The outcome of the optimization procedure shows that the most preferable scenario, the one with the highest total score, is the Scenario
32
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
A1-Advanced policies (more wind). This result indicates that wind energy is the most efcient technology today. Given that the wind potential is limited, the detailed analysis of the wind potential will dene which wind penetration can be achieved exactly.
5. AN ACTION PLAN FOR CYPRUS 5.1. Design and priorities of policy measures The energy policy must have a long-term
change in the “energy doctrine” requires the
planning period. The energy system is linked
formulation of a permanent policy framework
to all activities and represents one of the
and decision process, the impacts of which will
most important key-factors for the economic
gradually occur within a 10-20 years time.
development of Cyprus. The satisfaction of
Thus, an Action Plan for the promotion of
energy needs in a safe and reliable way
RES in Cyprus presupposes that, in the long-
forms a prerequisite for a sound evolution of
term, the penetration of RES will not continue to
productive and consumer proles. The economic
represent a marginal issue, but on the contrary
competitiveness depends to a large extent on
it will form a constitutional element of the
the proper relation between the cost and quality
Cyprus energy policy. Under this condition,
of energy inputs. Furthermore, the quality of life
the most important issues related to the
depends signicantly on the spatial distribution
energy policy of the country, together with
and the character of energy investments. Energy
issues related directly or/and indirectly with the
investments are usually capital-intensive and
efcient formulation and performance of a new
have a long life-cycle, during which their total
energy doctrine that incorporates RES to the
prot is determined. The energy sector itself
maximum possible extent are investigated.
constitutes a basic element of the development
The Action Plan presented below comprises
process and an important source of income and
4 basic guidelines: (a) bring the state and
employment.
society into action, (b) increase the reliability
Concluding, the characteristics of the energy
of RES, (c) motivate investors and investments
sector itself, together with its links to the various
and (d) reduce barriers for specic RES. Some
economic activities, determine the long-term
of the proposed measures are presented in the
character of the energy policy adopted. Any
following table.
33
POTENTIAL BARRIERS
POLICY MEASURES
Low public awareness
Organisation of of information campaigns. Introduction of relevant courses to the educational programmes of all levels Creation of a central database on the RES potential and the experience gained from investments realised Creation and Connection of Regional Energy Ofces in a network. Activation of the public sector in order to set the example. Development of the “Energy Consultants” body. Promotion of new nancial schemes (ex. Third Party Financing etc.) by means of information of Finance Houses. Incentives for the development of domestic industry involved in renewable technologies. “Formulation of a National Action Plan for RES.
Insufcient supply of information to investors and end-users (private agents, agricultural cooperations and local authorities) concerning the available RES potential and the possible technological solutions
Reluctance of local authorities and organisations to realise RES investments, due to high investment risk and/or lack of nancial resources
Lack of a concise programme for RES development (goals for each RES technology, time-schedule) Reluctance of end-users for realising RES investments in the nal demand level
Extension of the New Law to the nal demand level Promotion of investments for combined use (e.g. RES/desalination) Differentiation of subsidies according to geographical criteria and/or the commercial and nancial maturity of technologies Gradual shifting of subsidies from the investment cost to the price of the energy produced Submission of the supporting vouchers only to the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (“one stop shop”) Use of certied products R&D promotion Optimal management of the electricity network by EAC Tax and Price policy, tradable permits.
Difcult penetration of renewable technologies with high investment cost Mistrust of public agents concerning the reliability of renewable technologies Bureaucracy obstacles and delays in the license procedureSimplication of the approval procedure Low reliability of RES Technical constraints in electricity generation Distortion of relevant prices
Proposed list of supportive measures by technology: Wind Energy Low protability due to low wind velocities
Higher price per kWh for the rst ve years. Price adjustment depending on the wind potential for the next ten years. Proper sitting of wind farms on the basis of noise and visual impact Determination of the “carrying capacity” per area
Disregard of potential environmental impacts Eventual “saturation” phenomena in some areas, because of wind farms’ overconcentration Insufcient supply of information to the investors concerning the RES potential in the various sites.
Formulation of a guide for investors containing wind velocities, topographical, land-use and technical data for the various sites. Creation of a network for wind speed measurement in various regions / model simulation. Differentiation of buy-back prices. Specication of equipment quality standards.
Uniform buy-back price, regardless of the type of load covered. Operational problems of wind turbines due to the different wind conditions in Greece. High dependence on imported equipment Reservations of EAC concerning the effects of the installed wind systems tï the network behavior
Incentives for the development of domestic manufacture. Software development in order to forecast wind velocities and consequently the energy and power contribution from wind farms
Proposed list of supportive measures by technology: Biomass Indifference of farmers to dispose the agricultural residues Uncertainty about the availability of biomass to supply the conversion plants Reservations of farmers tï shift towards new cultivations Potential negative environmental impacts due tï the irrational use of fertilizers and pesticides in energy plantations Atmospheric pollution during combustion
Prohibition of the on-site burning of agricultural by-products Long-term contracts with farmers for raw material provision Support of farmers by specialized agronomists
Establishment of upper limits for atmospheric pollutants generated from biomass conversion units. Lower taxation of biofuels . Establishment of a mandatory biofuel percentage in gasoline.
Lack of biofuels’ competitiveness compared tï conventional fuels Proposed list of support measures by technology: Solar Colectors Low level of penetration in the hotel sector
Mandatory installation of solar collectors for water heating provided by the building code in the new hotels Tax compensation Mandatory use of solar collectors in public buildings (new and existing) License from relevant authorities according tï specied rules Subsidies to photovoltaic use, especially in remote systems (e.g. Lighthouses)
Reluctance tï install solar collectors for water heating in existing buildings because of low protability Potential visual impact in case of solar collectors’ installation in traditional buildings Low competitiveness of PVs
34
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
6. CONCLUSIONS Today the energy system of Cyprus is almost
more information is needed to encourage
entirely dependent on imported fuels. There
the cultivation of non-food crops. The
is a signicant RES unexploited potential. The
competitiveness of biofuels will be heavily
entrance of Cyprus in the European Union entails
dependent upon the level of duty levied by
the need to comply with EU’s energy policy and
Government on such fuels. If duty was at the
commitments.
same rate as that levied on petrol or diesel,
The present analysis shows that the
biofuels would be far too expensive to hold a
achievement of 6% RES supply in the electricity
competitive place. By the technical point of view
demand in 2010 is difcult to be realized
biodiesel is an ideal substitute for diesel and no
with the current policies. Additional measures
signicant engine modications are required.
and policies should be implemented before
The existing legislative framework and the
the realization of the target. According to the
tariffs are favorable and encouraging for private
“Advanced Policies” scenario, the achievement of
investors. However, additional resources can be
this target is technically realistic, feasible and
provided to the support fund, so that all the
protable.
required plans can be supported. According to the comparative evaluation the optimum scenario, which constitutes the basis for the formulation of the action plan of RES in Cyprus, is the “Advanced Policies” scenario. The positive impacts from the achievement of the targets, the emissions reduction, and the employment created justify the required additional support cost. These benets are large enough to fully cover any subsidies and support cost provided in order to encourage private investors to undertake the technical and nancial risks associated with RES investments.
On the other hand the achievement of the target of 5.75% supply of biofuels in the transport sector in 2010 seems much more difcult to be realized. Current costs of production, combined with lack of an existing market for the product make the production of biofuels an unattractive investment. At the agricultural stage of biofuel production
35
REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
“Reform of the legal and Institutional Energy Sector
BLUEPRINT IN CYPRUS”, http://www.greenpeacemed.org.mt/ ,
Framework”, Regional Energy Project under the Framework of
http://www.greenpeacemed.org.mt/prs/cyprus/energy/
the MEDA Regulation
991206.html
“Restructuring of energy companies”, BCEOM-EDF-GDF-ADEMECOWI-ENERECO, Inception report for Cyprus.
[3]
“EAC QUESTIONNAIRE”
[4]
Environmental Management Consultants in association with
[17]
http://whc.unesco.org/news/helsinki3.htm
[18]
http://www.nature.coe.int/CP20/tpvs34e.doc
[19]
EUREC–NTUA, “Strategies for communities aiming at 100% RES supply” Altener project, Final Report, November 2001.
Exergia “Evaluation of the potential for introducing innovative
[20]
Altener project, Final Report, January 2003.
energy technologies in the industrial sector of Cyprus”, Final Report. [5]
ISLENET – NTUA, “Local Plans for 100% Renewable Islands”
[21]
Saradis, Y., et al., A regional planning approach for the
Environmental Management Consultants in association with
promotion of the renewable energy sources, Renewable Energy
Exergia “Evaluation of the potential for introducing innovative
18 (1999), p. 317-330
energy technologies in the commercial sector of Cyprus” Final
[22]
NTUA, “Implementation Plan for the large scale deployment
Report, June 2001.
of Renewable Energy Sources in Crete-Greece”, Final Report,
[6]
Electricity Authority of Cyprus, http://www.eac.com.cy
Altener project XVII/4.1030/Z/96-0139, November 1998.
[7]
CRES, “A strategic Energy Plan for the future accession of
[23]
Europe (ELVIRE)”, Altener publication, 1996.
Cyprus in the EU and for the Strengthening of ties between Malta and EU” Task 2: Integration Resource Planning for
[24]
OPET CY, Applied Energy Centre, Cyprus Institute of Energy,
[25]
D. Diakoulaki “Decision making and methodologies of investment’s assessment” Athens 1989.
“Evaluation of the potential for introducing innovative energy technologies in the Residential sector of Cyprus”, June 2002. [9]
ExternE – Externalities of Energy. A Research Project of the European Commission http://externe.jrc.es/
Cyprus, December 1998. [8]
Fedarene, “Evaluation Guide for Renewable Energy projects in
[26]
Voivontas D., et al, Assesment of biomass potential for power production: A GIS based method, Biomass & Bioenergy 20
Aristodemou N., “Evaluation of the potential for introducing
(2001), p.101-12
innovative energy technologies in the touristic sector of Cyprus”, Final Report, December 1999.
[27]
NTUA, “Demonstrating the Efciency of Solar Space Heating
[10]
Insulations’ regulation of buildings in Cyprus
and Cooling (DESSHC)”, EU EESD (NNE5/1999/104), Final
[11]
Cyprus Organization for standards and control of quality,
Report, 2003.
“Cyprus Standard for Study for the thermal insulation and
[28]
D. Diakoulaki, G. Kavadakis, “Cost-benet analysis of biofuel
rational use of energy in the building sector – Part 1” 1999.
of oil-seed origin in Greece”, Options Mediterraneennes, Special
[12]
http://www.1uptravel.com/international/middleeast/cyprus/
issue on Comprehensive economic and spatial bio-energy
[13]
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and
modelling, Serie A, No 48 pp. 77-84, 2002.
Transport, “European energy and transport: Trends to 2030”
[14]
[29]
Zervos A., Caralis G., Kaltsa I. (2001) “Socio-economic and
January 2003
environmental evaluation of the wind energy penetration in
Ministry of Agriculture, Natural and environment – Water
Greece” National Conference of RES, Greece.
development department, “Dams of Cyprus” Dec 2001.
[30]
G.Caralis, A.Zervos (2003) “A pumped storage unit to increase
[15]
Cyprus Tourism Organization, http://www.cyprustourism.org/
wind energy penetration in the island of Crete” International
[16]
“GREENPEACE AND WIND INDUSTRY UNVEIL GLOBAL ENERGY
Conference: RES for island tourism and water, Crete, Greece.
36
TOWARDS A WHITE PAPER FOR RES AND RUE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS
[31]
[32]
Werner Kleinkauf, Fotios Raptis, Oliver Haas, “Electrication
(Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Tourism of Cyprus),
with Renewable energies. Hybrid plant technology for
Comparison of Energy Efciency of Static and Mobile Solar
decentralized, Grid-Compatible Power supply”, Revised edition.
Collectors of the Solar Thermosiphons in Greece and Cyprus,
Ray Hunter and George Elliot, “Wind-Diesel Systems. A Guide
1999.
to the Technology and its Implementation”, Prepared under
[33]
[43]
the auspices of the International Energy Agency, Cambridge
Commerce, Industry & Tourism; Solar Energy in Cyprus,
University Press.
Conference Proceedings, Lefkosia, 2 July 1999.
“Medenergy: Elaboration of an Action Plan to Promote
[44]
Action – The solar thermal market – A strategic plan for action
Water Supply and Socio-Economic Development in the
in Europe, 1996 [45]
Mediterraneén de L’Energie, France; J.Montes, CIEMAT, Spain; [46]
Ministry of Interior, “NATURA 2000 Network”, Lefkosia,
APAS-RENA contractors meeting”, Venice Italy 22-25 November
November 2003. [47]
http://themes.eea.eu.int/Sectors_and_activities/
Technology”, University College Cork, Ireland. Presentation in
transport/indicators/consequences/transport_consumption/
“Renewable Energy Development European Conference and
TERM_2002_01_AC_Energy_consumption.pdf [48]
“European Cost Analysis Methodology (EUBC)”, A Guidebook
1995.
for B/C Evaluation of DSM and Energy Efciency Services
“A plan for action in Europe. Wind Energy, The Facts”, European
Programs, European Commission, February 1996.
Wind Energy Association, 1999.
[49]
NTUA, N.Hatziargyriou “Advanced control advice for power
Michael Snell, “Cost – Benet analysis for engineers and planners”, Thomas Telford publication.
systems with large scale integration of renewable energy
[50]
sources”, Periodic report, Joule III, February 1998.
[38]
European Environment Agency, www.eea.eu.int/
T.Lewis, “Wave Energy. An Introduction and Review of
APAS-RENA contractors meeting”, Venice Italy 22-25 November
[37]
Ministry of Agriculture, natural resources & Environment,
in “Renewable Energy Development European Conference and
1995.
[36]
NOA, “Strategic plan for the reduction of the greenhouse emissions in Cyprus”, Final Report, December 2001.
P.Menna, ENEA, Italy; M.Aguardo, IPTS, Spain. Presentation
[35]
European Commission, Directorate General for Energy, Sun in
the Use of Renewable Energies for Electricity Supply,
Southern Mediterranean Countries”, E.Nogaret, Observatoire
[34]
FEMOPET CYPRUS, Applied Energy Centre, Ministry of
“Externe Externalities of energy Vol.6 Wind & Hydro”, Prepared by EEE, UK and ENCO,N.,1995.
G.Panaras, G.Caralis, A.Zervos, P.Garofallis (2003) “Towards
[51]
SAVE Contract No 4.1031/Z/98-212, Application and Follow
100%RES supply in the island of Lemnos-Greece” International
–up of Building Energy and Environmental Certication Scheme,
Conference: RES for island tourism and water, Crete, Greece.
Co-ordinator University of Thessaloniki, School of Architecture –GR.
Diakoulaki D., Caralis G., Zervos A. (2000) “Strategies for
[52]
P. Eleftheriou, “Energy from wastes: a possible alternative
communities aiming at 100% RES supply”, Altener 2000
energy source for Cyprus’ municipalities?” Energy Conversion
conference, Toulouse-France.
and Management 43, p.1969-1975, 2002.
[39]
http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy_transport/atlas/
[40]
Applied Energy Centre and Cyprus Institute of Energy, “Cyprus,
for Estimating a User’s Interests”, IST-Programme 1999-10688
Solar Thermal Market and Technology Assessment”, Draft,
Cawicoms.
[53]
European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and
[54]
Transport Contract No NNE5/2000/69. [41]
[42]
Ralph Schafer, “Rules for Using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
Tavelis Frixos, “Prospects of desalination with wind energy in Cyprus”, Diploma thesis, Athens, October 2004.
I. Papadopoulos, “Solar Energy Utilization in Cyprus, Ministry of
[55]
Nicos X. Tsiourtis, “Seawater desalination projects. The Cyprus
Commerce, Industry & Tourism, Lefkosia, 1984.
experience” Water Development Department, Ministry of Agriculture,
National Observatory of Athens – Applied Energy Centre
Natural Resources and Environment, Cyprus, February 2001.
37
38