as an invasion force, but instead a reaction to NATO aggression. It follows that Russia made the decision in Ireland to show the world that it is capable of negotiation with a non-NATO country and respecting its sovereignty, which in turn helps its narrative of NATO being the aggressor in Ukraine. It also sends a message to Ukraine that it doesn’t need to be part of NATO to be protected from Russia’s military might, and that it might be safer without membership. Russia is ultimately concerned with NATO expansionism, especially into former Soviet states. Some even believe that Putin wants these countries to remain weak and dependent on Russia to emulate a long-lost Russian empire. It’s essential, then, that Russia can justify to its people and to other states its actions in Ukraine.
peoples. While the Irish fishermen may feel a sense of victory and the Russian mission failed, there are no winners in these scenarios, only varying degrees of loss.
Of course, this means very little if Russia’s playacting in Ireland wasn’t convincing. Quite frankly, it was not. The Irish people had no greater sympathy for Russia after it agreed to move the exercise and Ireland has not been any kind of ally to Russia since the invasion. In fact, as a member of the European Union, it has handed down sanctions against Russia for its actions. In the battle for global sympathy, Russia is soundly losing. Its optics campaign is completely ineffective when this war is a sequel to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and follows a long history of subjugating surrounding states and
THE OBSERVER
XVIII.3
6.
