Qualitative summary of results The following table summarises the main characteristics of the included studies and their keys findings and recommendations. Reference
Description
How much flexible demand resource is available internationally? Gils_2014
This paper was the first comprehensive assessment of theoretical DR potential in Europe using a ‘top-down’ approach. It models country potential by considering the average energy usage of key industrial, commercial and residential loads. It also compares the average potential of load reduction and increase of those loads across different European countries. The overall DR potential in Europe is estimated to be 93 GW of load reduction and 247 GW of load increase. The latter is mainly possible through residential loads. These figures are considered highly time-dependent and can reduce to ~10% of this potential at certain times of the year. The results are also presented: 1. by a per capita potential that is highest in Norway, Finland, Sweden and Luxembourg and lowest in eastern and south-eastern Europe, and 2. based on a ratio to annual peak load that is highest in Luxembourg, Greece, Romania and Spain.
Wohlfarth_2020
The paper explores more deeply the theoretical potential of the European services (commercial) sector to provide DR, based on an analysis of German companies. The authors argue that this sector is largely untapped compared to the industrial sector, which has provided the majority of the 2,500MW of DR capacity in Germany to date. The research conducted a quantitative survey of 1,500 companies in prospective commercial subsectors—offices, trade, hotels and restaurants—and identified approximately 22 TWh of theoretical potential, 4TWh of technical potential and 1TWh of practical potential. This is lower than previous studies due to more conservative assumptions e.g. only 1–2 h load shift per appliance per day. ‘Cross-sectoral’ processes such as HVAC were found to be the most promising candidates for DR, as they do not directly interfere with industrial production and are relatively homogeneous. However, the business case for HVAC can be more challenging because individual gains are small and need to be aggregated.
Shoreh_2016
This review brings together the existing literature on the potential for industrial DR to provide ancillary services (<2 h duration). Programs for ancillary services are defined as (in order of fastest response to slowest): emergency contingency (spinning and non-spinning); regulation; and replacement reserve. The authors identify key industrial loads and sectors that are likely to provide these services if financial, regulatory and knowledge barriers are overcome: electrolysis in aluminium production; steel melt shops; cement grinding mills; refrigeration, especially when Auto-DR is in place; electrochemical processes (e.g. chloralkali); and temperature adjustment in data centres. It is argued that “although any single load may not meet the requirements for one particular DR program, all of the loads are capable of participating as part of a large network”.
Gerke_2020
This report summarises the findings of the third phase of a major research project at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: the California Demand Response Potential Study. This is the largest and longest quantitative assessment that has been conducted to date. The Phase 3 report focuses on ‘shift’ resource that was identified as the most promising DR category in the second phase and “represents DR that encourages the movement of energy consumption from times of high demand to times when there is surplus renewable energy generation”. The key finding of the study is that current shift resource (averaging 5.3 GWh per day, at a cost below behind-the-meter battery storage) could soak up almost all of the curtailed renewable generation today and out to 2030. This resource will need to expand to realise the most cost-effective outcomes for customers, and several options are presented to achieve this.
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Flexible demand and demand control. Research state of the art industry report for research theme B4
