1.2.1 Work Package 1: Market size, workforce, and employment
increase accordingly. Figure 1 shows the information priorities from an energy sector survey, as recorded in consultation for this project.
Work Package 1 focused on the development of a methodology to measure and project the clean energy market and workforce, including:
Figure 1. Information priorities from a survey of the clean energy workforce (N=140)
•
Measuring the current clean energy market size ($) and workforce (job numbers) in Australia
Diversity metrics 12%
Total jobs 7%
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Projecting the size and composition of the future energy workforce under a range of transition pathways; and
Other 16%
Breakdown of jobs 38%
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Providing a detailed breakdown of occupational and skills requirements.
Part of the task was to define the scope of clean energy to be included in the measurement and projection: this was assumed to include renewable energy, energy storage, energy efficiency and demand management, and some aspects of networks and transport. However, this was overtaken by the outcomes of the consultation, which made clear that measuring the energy sector as a whole and breaking it down into the relevant sectors and sub-sectors was preferred to measuring the clean energy sector alone. This is both a research finding and a recommendation of this work package. This methodology is therefore expected to be a framework for an annual/biennial large-scale survey and a method for using the survey data to project the future energy workforce.
1.2.1.1 Why measure the energy workforce? The energy sector is undergoing a transition away from carbon intensive fuels, requiring workforce changes on the scale of previous industrial revolutions, and this transition will accelerate over the next decade. Current energy sector employment worldwide is approximately 58 million with about half in the fossil fuel industries. While overall energy employment may increase to close to 100 million in 2050, the fossil fuel workforce is expected to shrink by nearly a quarter, from around 29 million to 22 million jobs. At the same time the energy efficiency, energy flexibility and grid upgrade workforce is expected to more than double, from about 17 million to 36 million jobs (IRENA, 2020). This pattern is likely to be reflected in Australia. Employment in fossil fuel generation in the eastern states, which makes up about one third of the current power generation workforce, could be reduced by 49 to 78 per cent in the next 15 years.2 At the same time, new skills are required. They range from the advanced energy management needed to achieve the targeted 40 per cent increase in energy productivity by 2030 in the National Energy Productivity Plan, to constructing and managing energy storage such as pumped hydro and batteries, to building emerging industries such as green hydrogen and green steel. Further, the workforce in the renewables sector will need to expand significantly if these emerging industries are to succeed, as demand for renewable power will 2 18
ISF analysis of AEMO 2020 ISP, Central, Step Change and High DER scenarios.
E3 Opportunity Assessment: Developing the future energy workforce
Forecasting 10%
Skills and training 17%
1.2.2 Work Package 2: New skills development This work package investigated the skills and skilled professionals required by 2030 to deliver a clean energy transition. Acknowledging the important role of non-technical skills as enablers of energy transitions, a socio-technical framework (Li et al, 2015; Patwardhan et al, 2012) was applied to ensure that skills related to areas other than just technology are considered in workforce planning related to the clean energy transition. The research also considered current education and training programs and the extent to which these could deliver the requisite skills and skilled professionals. Training provided by universities, the vocational education and training (VET) sector and industry – continuing professional development (CPD) – were considered. It is acknowledged that the rapid growth of the clean energy sector and other adjacent supporting sectors will require expanding the skills of professionals already in the market, thus making CPD a key area of interest. In this context, partnerships between relevant peak industry and professional associations, registered training organisations (RTO) and VET providers will be crucial. The aim of this work package was to identify pathways that can ensure that professionals are either being trained or up-skilled to deliver the energy transition by 2030. To achieve that aim, it was important to consider what the future energy system may look like. There are numerous energy models and scenarios that could inform this, but this research references the Decarbonisation Futures scenarios developed
