4.2 Methodologies for measuring and projecting the clean energy workforce Surveys are the only method to definitively measure energy sector employment or value, and survey data underpins all calculations of market size, whether by creating the inputs to be used for modelling or by verifying calculated data.
4.2.1 Surveys and other direct information
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Employment multipliers (also called indicators or factors) – noting that these cannot be used to determine sector value;
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Input-output (I/O) modelling;
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Macro-econometric modelling; and
Surveys are needed to determine the current size of the clean energy sector. There is a considerable range, from complete population surveys (the census) to highly targeted industry surveys. In general, surveys have a high level of accuracy provided the sample size is sufficient, and the information gathered can be tailored to exactly the outputs required in terms of detail and inclusion. The main drawback is that surveys are very resource intensive, and do not serve to project future employment, although they provide the input data for other calculation methods. The range of direct information collection methods includes:
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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling.
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Census data and company reports: give a complete count and demographic information about employment by industry sector. However, segmentation is entirely dependent on the available occupational codes. In Australia these are the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes, which are unfortunately extremely limited in terms of applicability to clean energy – see discussion in Section 4.3.3. Only traditional power generation and fuels are covered explicitly by codes, and many occupations are spread across other sectors such as construction or electrical services.
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Targeted industry surveys: are most commonly carried out by the relevant industry association, and are an excellent source of detailed information on an industry. The Clean Energy Council in Australia publishes annual reports on the clean energy industry (for example Clean Energy Council, 2020, 2021).
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Company and project reports: are rich sources of data for bottom-up approaches to measuring the size of the energy sector, and are frequently the base inputs for industry association publications. The caveat is that there is no common framework for reporting, particularly if information is for future rather than existing projects. Employment numbers may include significantly different information. For example, environmental impact statements frequently publish employment numbers, but these may be based on very different calculations. For example, the peak of employment during construction may be reported without indicating how long these jobs will persist; direct, indirect or induced jobs may be included, and the calculations may be the result of employment indicators which are out of date.
There are four main approaches to modelling energy sector employment and value (Breitschopf, Nathani and Resch, 2012; Czako, 2020; IEA, 2020), listed in order of increasing degrees of complexity:
Determining and projecting the size of the energy sector may be done bottom-up, working from individual companies or projects, or calculated top down going from general economic activity to outputs for employment and value. The method chosen will depend on the questions asked, the scope of investigation, the available resources and data, and the specificity required. In practice, most assessments use a mix of methods. Prior to detailing the methodologies, it is worth defining some terms used when discussing employment: •
Direct employment: is the work directly related to a particular activity, so for power generation this would include the work involved in manufacturing, constructing and maintaining the generation facility, and producing the fuel for fossil or bioenergy generation. Manufacturing technology-specific components – such as wind turbines – is generally counted as direct employment;
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Indirect employment: is the supply chain employment, such as the work required to produce steel, screws, cement, and other non-technology specific inputs; and
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Induced employment: is used to describe impacts which occur in unrelated sectors because of changes in disposable income resulting from the energy sector change. Induced effects cover things like increased consumption occurring as a result of increased disposable income from jobs growth, or reduced energy bills as a result of energy efficiency improvements. Induced effects can be negative as well as positive, for example reduced disposable income if energy prices increase.
Alternative survey approaches and the four main calculation methods are discussed below.
E3 Opportunity Assessment: Developing the future energy workforce
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