Combating the dragon’s intransigence

To counter the Chinese perfidy and deception, India needs to eschew its No First Use policy of nuclear weapons, boost its conventional military strength, and shed its reticence towards military alliances

By pranay k Shome

I

ndia and China are two of the oldest civilisations in the world with rich culture, heritage and history. Ties between the two countries date back to ancient times. It was believed that since China is very similar to India in terms of its historical experiences and geopolitical interests, they would be natural allies. However, the post independence period of India saw the Chinese going back on their promise of brotherhood by attacking India in 1962. Over the years, Chinese border transgressions have increased manifold necessitating India to bolster its defences. However, time and again India and Indians have fallen prey to Chinese perfidy and deception.

But matters changed rapidly in the aftermath of the Galwan clash of 2020 when Indian troops outwitted the PLA in acquiring dominant positions on Rezang La, Pangong Tso, Rechang La, etc. However, to provide a more solid answer to the Chinese belligerence, we require a more forceful and assertive response. This should begin with a change in India’s nuclear policy. The nuclear policy of India was the brainchild of the late K. Subramanyam, one of India’s foremost strategic experts on geopolitics and the father of the current astute foreign minister and career diplomat Dr Subramanian Jaishankar.

India’s nuclear policy was made after intensive consultations with the defence and foreign policy elites of Indian strategic circles. India’s nuclear policy articulates a no-first use policy, unlike our neighbour Pakistan. However, if India is ever attacked with nuclear weapons then invoking domestic constitutional provisions and international legal provisions particularly Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, the nation possess the sovereign right to retaliate with full force and with the full strength of its nuclear arsenal to debilitate the second strike capability of its adversary.

Despite being a responsible nuclear power committed to the establishment and maintainence of a rules based international order, China has been engaging in wanton violation of border laws and agreements vis-avis India that both sides have signed over the years. The border transgressions in 2020 clearly demonstrate that China has disregarded the sanctity of the 1993 Land Border agreement and has made irrelevant irredentist claims regarding Indian territory.

Therefore, the time has come for New Delhi to eschew its no-first use policy of nuclear weapons. While this raises the threshold of a possible nuclear confrontation between the two Asian behemoths, there is no other way. The threat of use of nuclear weapons constitute one

China has Been enGaGinG in WanTOn viOLaTiOn OF BORdeR LaWs and aGReeMenTs vis-a-vis india ThaT BOTh sides have siGned OveR The YeaRs. The BORdeR TRansGRessiOns in 2020 CLeaRLY deMOnsTRaTe ThaT China has disReGaRded The sanCTiTY OF The 1993 Land BORdeR aGReeMenT and has Made iRReLevanT iRRedenTisT CLaiMs ReGaRdinG indian TeRRiTORY

of the safest options in military tactics because the scale of annihilation the Hiroshima and Nagasaki incidents have been a lesson for the rest of the world that it is of utmost necessity to avoid nuclear war.

Notwithstanding the dangers involved in eschewing its nofirst use policy, the world needs to understand the problem that India is facing, it is bound by hostile neighbours in the form of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan on its three sides and two of them have nuclear weapons in their possessions. Therefore, for the purpose of self-defence, India needs to take this hard step to deter its foes.

Nuclear weapons, despite their inherently deterrent nature, are and should always be used as weapons of the last resort. So, keeping that factor in mind India needs to boost its conventional military strength something which non-nuclear countries like Japan and Taiwan are doing keeping in mind the larger picture of the dragon’s threat.

India is progressing rapidly on the path of defence modernisation and has recently highlighted its intention to develop Agni-VI, its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of over 5,500 kilometres which when launched from India can easily target Chinese cities like Shanghai, Beijing etc.

However, the size of the Chinese economy is ten times the size of India, its armed forces are almost twice the size of India and the Chinese nuclear arsenal is much more stronger than India. Therefore, it is imperative for India that besides changing its nuclear doctrine it needs to shed its reticence towards military alliances. The obvious reference here is the need for the outright militarisation of the Quad grouping which must develop a new type of military doctrine and foreign policy agenda by placing nuclear arsenals of the Quad countries under a joint Quad command. The Quad grouping should have its own constitution just like NATO with a similar provision to Article 5.

suMMInG uP

India, therefore, needs to keep in mind that China is not Pakistan and dealing with a country which is twice your size and the world’s second largest economy can be tough. But then as the saying goes, “when the going gets tough, the tough gets going”. Thus India needs to take hard steps to deal with the dragon’s consistently pesky territorial violations vis-avis our country.

– The writer is currently working as a Research Associate at Defence Research and Studies (dras.in) and is a columnist. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda india needs TO BOOsT iTs COnvenTiOnaL MiLiTaRY sTRenGTh sOMeThinG WhiCh nOnnUCLeaR COUnTRies Like JaPan and TaiWan aRe dOinG keePinG in Mind The LaRGeR PiCTURe OF The dRaGOn’s ThReaT

New Regime i N Paki sta

After Imran Khan’s outburst against the US, the Shehbaz Sharif government has indeed a tough job on its hand to smoothen out ties with Washington while not annoying Moscow and Beijing

treadInG a tIGht

By Sri kriShna

F

or the first time in Pakistan’s political history, Imran Khan was defeated with 174 votes in the 225-member Pakistan National Assembly on March 8, ending his term 16 months ahead of time. He is the first serving prime minister to have been removed through a noconfidence motion, without overt military or judicial intervention.

army Chief General Qamar javed Bajwa, prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, former prime minister imran khan

Paki sta N: roPe

Though the Army which has been playing a major role in that country’s politics appears to have maintained a semblance of aloofness but Imran Khan’s standoff with the military over the appointment of a new ISI chief and differences over foreign policy issues had created a rift with the military establishment.

The new Prime Minister, 70-year-old Shehbaz Sharif, younger brother of former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, in his address to the Assembly said, “we want good ties with India but durable peace is not possible until the Kashmir issue is resolved,” and came out with all guns blazing attacking Imran Khan saying he did not make “serious and diplomatic efforts” when India abrogated Article 370 in August 2019.

Bajwa’s term as Army Chief ends in November this year and it remains to be seen what turn the relationship between the Army and the new government in Islamabad takes post his departure.

In Pakistan, no prime minister has been able to complete the full five-year term in office. Three military dictators have in the past overthrown democratically elected governments in Pakistan. On many other occasions, presidents with military backgrounds or military support sent many prime ministers home.

The military has always had the upper hand over the civilian government in matters of how the country should be run, nuclear doctrine framed, and foreign policy nuanced. Whenever a prime minister became too powerful and popular, the military overthrew him in the name of saving the country.

Even Khan’s rise to power in 2018 had the backing of the military which sought to convey the impression that the prime minister would appear to be more in charge. However, the military appeared to gradually becoming unhappy with Khan with the main cause being that Khan could not do much, despite no credible and robust Opposition breathing down his neck in Pakistan. Besides, khan and The MiLiTaRY did nOT see eYe TO eYe On seveRaL issUes On exTeRnaL ReLaTiOns RanGinG FROM khan’s sUPPORT FOR RUssia’s PResidenT vLadiMiR PUTin BY BeinG WiTh hiM in MOsCOW On FeBRUaRY 24 When RUssian FORCes invaded UkRaine

The country is riddled with numerous problems ranging from unemployment, inflation, and depleting forex reserves. It is crippled by poor infrastructure for education, health care, road connectivity, besides water and power supplies.

While Khan’s refusal to clear the appointment of the ISI chief might have been a trigger, he and the military have also differed on who should be the next army chief. Besides, Khan and the military did not see eye to eye on several issues on external relations ranging from Khan’s support for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin by being with him in Moscow on February 24 when Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

General Bajwa made his differences with Khan public by saying the invasion by Russia was very unfortunate and a huge tragedy that could not be condoned and must be stopped immediately.

Since coming to power in 2018, Khan’s stand had become antiAmerican, and he had sought to move closer to China and Russia. But Gen Bajwa said that Pakistan shares a long history of excellent and strategic relationship with the US, which remains “our largest export market”.

“Pakistan has excellent defence and economic ties with Ukraine while relations with Russia have been cold for a long time,” Bajwa also said.

The UkRaine CRisis is a sensiTive issUe and COnsideRinG ThaT iMRan khan Was in MOsCOW When UkRaine invasiOn TOOk PLaCe, iT is indeed an UPhiLL Task FOR The neW GOveRnMenT TO ResPOnd TO iT On The diPLOMaTiC FROnT

There were several other major differences with the Pakistan Army feeling that Khan had not taken a strong stand regarding human rights violation by the Taliban. Bitter with the Taliban as it is losing soldiers in attacks near their mutual border, Pakistan’s military wants the Taliban to control extremist groups that are now spreading violence in Pakistan.

The Pakistan Taliban, a terror outfit different from the Afghan Taliban, targets the military posts and installations with the declared aim to establish sharia, the Islamic law, in Pakistan. Imran Khan struck a deal with the Pakistan Taliban last year that led to a month-long ceasefire. This happened in October-November 2021 in the shadow of Khan-Army differences over the appointment of the ISI chief. The Pakistan Taliban resumed attacks on the Pakistan Army sites in December.

In the prevailing scenario, Pakistan is an important player in the regional power play between Russia, China and the US as it is on the cross roads.

Since its formation in 1947, Pakistan has always been a focal point for the big powers specially China and the US who have always sought to get that country to cosy up to them.

In the present day scenario, Pakistan has numerous problems to contend with which include reviving its flagging economy, stabilising borders with Afghanistan on the Durand Line and rebalancing its ties with the major actors in the Middle

Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari

East, including Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Each of these is a major challenge for the new regime in Islamabad. After Imran Khan’s outburst against the US, the Shehbaz government has indeed a tough job on its hands to smoothen out ties with Washington.

With Beijing and Washington too having none too good relations, it will be a tight rope walk for Shehbaz. The Ukraine crisis is a sensitive issue and considering that Imran Khan was in Moscow when Ukraine invasion took place, it is indeed an uphill task for the new government to respond to it on the diplomatic front. So, all in all, it is a tough path ahead for the new government in Pakistan with a spate of problems left behind by Imran Khan who had dreamt of a “Naya Pakistan.”

- The writer is a senior journalist and media consultant. The views expressed are of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Raksha Anirveda