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The Middle East and Global Security

How Terrorist Groups End

Talking to the Enemy

Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida

Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia

Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki

“[This book] is a solid piece of research.

It is extremely well written and insightful, and its conclusions should strongly influence U.S. counterterrorism policy.�

Daniel L. Byman, director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and senior fellow with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution

All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end?

By analyzing 648 different terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006, this fascinating volume reveals that most groups have ended because they joined the political process or because local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members. Military force has rarely been the primary reason for the end of terrorist groups, and few groups within this time frame have achieved victory. This has significant implications for dealing with al Qa’ida and suggests fundamentally rethinking post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism strategy: Policymakers need to understand where to prioritize their efforts with limited resources and attention.

The authors’ review shows that religious terrorist groups take longer to eliminate than other groups and rarely achieve their objectives. Perhaps not surprisingly, the largest groups achieve their goals more often and last longer than the smallest ones do. Finally, groups from upperincome countries are more likely to be left-wing or nationalist and less likely to have religion as their motivation.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

“This excellent study is the new starting point for anyone interested in track two diplomacy and its role in advancing regional security and mitigating conflict. Dr. Kaye provides us with the most comprehensive overview of track two activities in the Middle East and South Asia to date, discussing the principal elements that compose a successful track two program while also delivering a cleared-eyed perspective on the limitations of nonofficial diplomacy. This is a study to be devoured by students of international diplomacy, the Middle East, and South Asia, as well as governments and private foundations interested in reporting track two efforts.� .JDIBFM :BGGF /BUJPOBM %FGFOTF 6OJWFSTJUZ

Violence and mistrust often prevent direct, open communication among long-standing adversaries. Increasingly, unofficial policy discussions, often called track two diplomacy, are important parts of the changing international security landscape. But what has been the payoff?

Do these dialogues affect adversarial relationships and, JG TP IPX 8IBU BSF UIF MJNJUT BOE EBOHFST PG USBDL UXP diplomacy?

The authors conclude that policing and intelligence, rather than military force, should form the backbone of U.S. efforts against al Qa’ida. And U.S. policymakers should end the use of the phrase “war on terrorism,� since there is no battlefield solution to defeating al Qa’ida.

This book examines regional security track two efforts in the Middle East and South Asia, considering the roles as well as the limits of such processes, and offers ways in which project organizers and funding organizations might measure the effectiveness of these efforts. Such assessments can not only provide a better understanding of what these types of dialogues have or have not accomplished in the past, but can also provide a framework for conducting track two diplomacy in the future. The book’s lessons apply not only to the Middle East and South Asia but also to other regions struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships.

Contents

Contents

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Terr o ri s m & a l - Qa e d a

In their Own Words Voices of Jihad: Compilation and Commentary David Aaron

“A revealing exposure of the appalling views of the fanatical jihadists— which also correctly notes the important fact that these views represent only a small but dangerous minority of Muslems.�

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Former U.S. National Security Advisor (1977-1981)

Beyond al-Qaeda Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William Rosenau

This monograph examines alQaeda’s evolution and the emergence of the broader global jihadist movement—groups affiliated, associated, or inspired by al-Qaeda—and the threat that they pose to the United States and U.S. allies and interests.

Contents

This book provides a self-portrait of the Jihadi movement.

It presents the actual statements and writings of jihadis expressing their views on virtually every subject relevant to their cause. It is not about Islam as it is practiced in its many varieties in Muslim communities throughout the world, nor is it about Islamic fundamentalism or the various Islamist political movements. Rather, it is about a small but critical group of Muslims who carry out and promote terrorism in the name of Islam. Because the jihadis’ statements often have more impact and are more profoundly revealing than the accounts that have been written about jihadi terrorism, this book provides unfiltered access to a broad range of the stories, rationales, ideas, and arguments of jihadi terrorists and those who support them.

Introductory and contextual material is also included, to provide the background and origins of what the jihadis are saying—to each other and to the world. It is hoped that this will provide greater insights into the motives, plans, and participants in jihadi terrorism, as well as the nature of the threat they pose. Not all of the quotations are from prominent jihadis. Some have been selected because they are representative, others because they are contradictory, and still others because they provide a unique insight into the jihadi mentality.

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Beyond al-Qaeda Part 2, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William Rosenau

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The authors show how terrorists use criminal organizations and connections to finance their activities, and they identify distinct strategies to neutralize or mitigate these threats.

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Contents

Contents

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Development & Iraq

Women and Nation-Building Cheryl Benard, Seth G. Jones, Olga Oliker, Cathryn Quantic Thurston, Brooke K. Stearns, Kristen Cordell

This book examines gender-specific impacts of conflict and post-conflict and the ways in which events in these contexts may affect women differently than they affect men. It analyzes the roles of women in the nationbuilding process and considers outcomes that might occur if current practices were modified. The recent nationbuilding activities in Afghanistan are used as a case study.

Despite the difficulty of collecting data in conflict zones, the information available from Afghanistan provides several pragmatic points for consideration. Gender issues have been overtly on the table from the beginning of U.S. postconflict involvement in Afghanistan, in part because of the Taliban’s equally overt prior emphasis on gender issues as a defining quality of its regime. Also, the issue of women’s inclusion is an official part of Afghanistan’s development agenda, so all the active agents in the nation-building enterprise have made conscious choices and decisions that can be reviewed and their underlying logic evaluated.

The authors conclude with a broad set of analytic and policy recommendations. First, they make specific suggestions for improving the data-collection process. Then, they recommend three shifts in emphasis to strengthen the prospects of stability and enhance the outcomes of nation-building programs: a more genuine emphasis on the broader concept of human security from the earliest phases of the nation-building effort; a focus on establishing governance based on principles of equity and consistent rule of law; and economic inclusion of women in the earliest stages of reconstruction activities.

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After Saddam Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Richard R. Brennan, Jr., Heather S. Gregg, Thomas Sullivan, and Andrew Rathmell

The authors examine prewar planning efforts for postwar Iraq, as well as role of U.S. military forces and civilian efforts after major combat officially ended, concluding that the U.S. government was unprepared for the challenges of postwar Iraq.

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U.S. Policy Options for Iraq A Reassessment Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Audra K. Grant, Terrence K. Kelly, Andrew Rathmell, David Brannan

Iraq is the most pressing national security issue facing the United States today. This book evaluates the costs and benefits of five alternative strategies the United States could pursue in Iraq. The authors state that, as long as the United States remains in Iraq, policy actions must focus on improving the security of Iraq’s population by reducing violence.

They offer recommendations for ways in which U.S. political, security, and economic policies in Iraq could be better geared to support this goal. If the United States decides to withdraw from Iraq, then it needs to prepare now to mitigate the effects of failure.

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Palestine & Qatar

Building a Successful Palestinian State David Gompert, Jerrold Green, C. Richard Neu, Glenn Robinson, Kenneth Shine, Steven Simon, C. Ross Anthony, Robert E. Hunter

In 2005, R AND presented a unique plan for creating a Palestinian state that could live in peace beside its neighbor, Israel. The proposal—including a landmark rail, highway, and infrastructure link between the West Bank and Gaza that would open the door to dramatic new development in Palestine—would give Palestinians new access to jobs, food, water, education, health care, housing, and public services. Although the future of a Palestinian-Israeli peace settlement remains unresolved, many of the actions proposed by this study can get underway now to pave the way for a future state.

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Education for a New Era Design and Implementation of K–12 Education Reform in Qatar Dominic J. Brewer, Catherine H. Augustine, Gail L. Zellman, Gery Ryan, Charles A. Goldman, Cathleen Stasz, Louay Constant

The leadership of Qatar has a social and political vision that calls for improving the outcomes of the Qatari K–12 education system. With this vision in mind, the leadership asked R AND to examine Qatar’s K–12 education system, to recommend options for building a world-class system, and, subsequently, to develop the chosen option and support its implementation. The option that was selected includes internationally benchmarked curriculum standards, national testing based on those standards, independent government-funded schools, and parental choice among schools using annual school report cards.

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The Arc A Formal Structure for a Palestinian State Doug Suisman, Steven N. Simon, Glenn E. Robinson, C. Ross Anthony, Michael Schoenbaum

Winner: 2006 Institute Honor for Regional and Urban Design, American Institute of Architects

Post-Secondary Education in Qatar Employer Demand, School Choice, and Options for Policy Cathleen Stasz, Francisco Martorell, Eric R. Eide

This book presents an elegant solution to the physical infrastructure for a new Palestinian state, centered on a modern, high-speed transportation infrastructure incorporating interurban rail, water, energy, telecommunications, and park space. The authors examined a range of approaches to constructing the backbone of infrastructure that all states need, in the context of a large and rapidly growing Palestinian population. This backbone accommodates substantial population growth by linking existing urban centers to new neighborhoods. It is plausible that the key aspects of this design can be pursued, with great benefit, before an independent state is established.

Qatar’s Supreme Education Council asked R AND to conduct a one-year study to assess whether the current post-secondary educational opportunities in Qatar are aligned with the nation’s social and economic goals, and to help articulate priorities for developing post-secondary educational opportunities, either in Qatar or through financed study abroad. The study determined that occupational demands are in the professional, technical, and sales and service occupations for men, and in the professional and clerical occupations for women. Overall, the pattern of demand favors individuals with some post-secondary education. However, education and career choices, especially for men, are somewhat misaligned with demand.

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The Wider Muslim World

More Freedom, Less Terror?

Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic Wehrey, Audra K. Grant, Dale Stahl

“This important and timely book does more to empirically examine the relationship between democratic change and political violence in the Arab world than anything else I have seen. Its insightful and intelligent analysis is admirably free of any apparent political or theoretical bias. The case studies make for particularly absorbing reading and add a great deal to our understanding of each country, as well as to our grasp of the broader theoretical and policy issues surrounding this debate.�

Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution and Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

A key tenet of U.S. foreign policy— from 9/11 at least through the U.S. invasion of Iraq—has been that promoting democracy in the Arab world is an important strategy in reducing terrorism. At the same time, however, some experts have held that democracy has nothing to do with terrorism—or even that the growth of democracy in the Middle East may exacerbate political violence.

This book examines whether a link between terrorism and democracy exists, by exploring the effects of liberalization processes on political violence in Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Morocco from 1991 to 2006.

The authors discover that political reforms have, in some instances, helped to marginalize and undercut extremist actors, but that these effects tend to be short-lived if reforms fail to produce tangible results. Crucially, when regimes backtrack on even limited openings, the risks of instability and violence increase.

This work should be of value to members of security policy communities, experts focusing specifically on the Middle East, students of international affairs, and the nongovernmental research and policy communities.

Contents Summary “Democracy� and Terrorism in the Arab World: A FrameXPSL GPS "OBMZTJT t &HZQU t +PSEBO t #BISBJO t 4BVEJ "SBCJB t "MHFSJB t .PSPDDP t $PODMVTJPO t #JCMJPHSBQIZ

Building Moderate Muslim Networks Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Lowell H. Schwartz, Peter Sickle

The authors develop a “road map� for the construction of moderate and liberal Muslim networks, based on lessons from U.S. Cold War efforts to foster networks of people committed to free and democratic ideas, in order to counter radical and dogmatic Islamist networks.

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The Muslim World After 9/11 Angel M. Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair, Theodore Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian Lesser, David Thaler

Momentous events since September 11, 2001—Operation Enduring Freedom, the global war on terrorism, and the war in Iraq— have dramatically altered the political environment of the Muslim world. This book examines the major dynamics that drive changes in the religio-political landscape and draws the implications of these trends for global security and U.S. and Western interests. The authors present a typology of ideological tendencies; identify the factors that produce religious extremism and violence; assess key cleavages along sectarian, ethnic, regional, and national lines; and identify possible strategies and military options for the United States to pursue in this critical and volatile part of the world.

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Additional Titles on the Middle East

Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities

Pacification in Algeria, 1956—1958

Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, and Jeffrey Martini

Originally published in 1963 and featuring a new foreword

by Bruce Hoffman, this account of the author’s successful command in the Algerian war for independence presents a striking parallel to present-day counterinsurgency operations.

Iran is one of the United States’ most important foreign policy concerns and an extraordinarily difficult country with which to engage. This monograph assesses current political, ethnic, demographic, and economic trends and vulnerabilities in Iran.

David Galula

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Ungoverned Territories RAND Alternative Strategy Initiative

Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks

A Conference on Creative Use of the Media for Understanding and Tolerance

Angel Rabasa, Steven Boraz, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Theodore W. Karasik , Jennifer D .P. Moroney, Kevin A. O’Brien, John E. Peters

Cheryl Benard and Edward O’ Connell

Examines the sources and types of ungoverned territories and the security challenges that they present and proposes mitigating strategies.

The conference on “Creative Use of the Media for Understanding and Tolerance� took place in Doha, Qatar, from March 14 to March 16, 2007 and is available on this DVD— the first time R AND has presented its research in documentary format.

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Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan U.S. Air Force Roles

The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey Angel Rabasa, F. Stephen Larrabee

In Turkey, an Islamic ruling party operates within a framework of strict secularism. This describes the controversy over the boundaries of secularity and religion in Turkey and how the balance between these forces has changed over the past decade.

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Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner F. Stephen Larrabee

Strains in U.S.-Turkish have grown since the end of the Cold War. Divergences have been particularly visible in policy toward the Middle East. As a result, Turkey is likely to be an increasingly difficult and less predictable partner in the future.

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David E. Thaler, Theodore W. Karasik, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Frederic Wehrey, Obaid Younossi, Farhana Ali, Robert A. Guffey

Examines potential long-term U.S. security relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan in a regional context and assesses the role of U.S. forces, especially the Air Force, in supporting these relationships under a variety of contingencies.

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Facing Human Capital Challenges of the 21st Century Education and -BCPS .BSLFU *OJUJBUJWFT JO -FCBOPO 0NBO 2BUBS BOE UIF 6OJUFE "SBC &NJSBUFT

Gabriella Gonzalez, Lynn A. Karoly, Louay Constant, Hanine Salem, Charles A. Goldman

Describes education and labor market initiatives implemented or under way in Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to address the human resource issues each country faces preparing for a place in the 21st century global economy.

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