RAND 2009 Publications Catalog by RAND Corporation

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2009 Publications Catalog

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2009 Publications Catalog The R AND Corporation is committed to finding effective solutions to important policy issues, and that mission is more important now than ever before. Concerns about health care, education, the global economic crisis, and ongoing security challenges in the Middle East and elsewhere present problems for governments and private sectors around the world. For 60 years, R AND has worked to help confront challenges such as these by providing objective analysis of important problems and the possible solutions to them. R AND’s commitment to making a difference is evident in the broad variety of insightful and influential titles highlighted within these pages. R AND’s impact on social issues is exemplified by Invisible Wounds of War (see facing page), which has received close to 3,000 media citations and continues to make headlines across the country. This research shows that nearly 1 in 5 service members returning from Iraq and Afghanistan are afflicted by post-traumatic stress disorder or major depression—but that only slightly more than half have sought treatment—and recommends effective treatments based on evidence-based care. Reparable Harm (see page 2) examines the racial and ethnic disparities faced by boys and men of color and how these disparities lead to serious disadvantages; it also identifies programs, practices, and policies that are helping to improve opportunities for this group. Moving Los Angeles (page 3) offers short-term solutions to the region with the most severe traffic congestion in the United States, strategies that may also be appropriate for other cities. R AND is equally focused on helping to address critical security challenges. How Terrorist Groups End examines hundreds of terrorist groups that have come and gone since 1968 and offers lessons for U.S. efforts against al Qa’ida, while In Their Own Words looks at how the historical writings of jihadis provide unique insight into their mentality (see both on page 6). Iran’s Political, Economic, and Demographic Vulnerabilities and Pacific Currents offer valuable insights into security challenges in Iran and China, respectively (both on page 8). The R AND Series on Counterinsurgency (pages 10–11) provides lessons that are already proving useful for U.S. and allied troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The titles in this catalog demonstrate R AND’s commitment to finding solutions to the world’s challenges over a uniquely broad front. To find out more about these titles, as well as the hundreds of other influential titles that R AND has produced in six decades of policy research, visit our Web site at www.rand.org.

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New • Health/Defense Policy Treating Combat Veterans

Invisible Wounds of War

Psychological and Cognitive Injuries, Their Consequences, and Services to Assist Recovery Terri Tanielian and Lisa H. Jaycox, editors

“The conditions discussed in this study are ‘invisible’—unlike those wounds of war that maim and disfigure, the stigmata of these wounds are psychological and remain invisible to other servicemembers, family members, the military, and the broader society. Invisible, these wounds go unrecognized and unacknowledged, resulting in unmet need, tremendous personal suffering, and great costs to the military and society. I hope that this report makes a real difference.” —Howard H. Goldman, M.D., Ph.D., Professor of Psychiatry, University of Maryland School of Medicine

“I enjoyed reading this volume and am very impressed with the thoroughness and work that has gone into it. The health care of veterans with mental health disorders presents difficult challenges, and the authors of this study have expanded the experiential bases of that care and raised the bar for academic analysis of existing and new data supporting the care choices.” —Thomas L. Garthwaite, M.D., Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer, Catholic Health East, Former Undersecretary for Health, Department of Veterans Affairs—New York Times

“This work is monumental and should be read by those who can begin considering and implementing its recommendations.” —Ronald R. Blanck, D.O. (Lieutenant General, U.S. Army, Retired), Vice Chairman of Martin, Blanck, and Associates, Former Surgeon General of the U.S. Army

Since October 2001, approximately 1.64 million U.S. troops have been deployed for Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) in Afghanistan and Iraq. Early evidence suggests that the psychological toll of these deployments—many involving prolonged exposure to combat-related stress over multiple rotations—may be disproportionately high compared with the physical injuries of combat. The study discussed in this book focuses on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), major depression, and traumatic brain injury, not only because of current high-level policy interest but also because, unlike the physical wounds of war, these conditions are often invisible to the eye, remaining invisible to other servicemembers, family members, and society in general. Among the authors’ recommendations is that effective treatments documented in the scientific literature— evidence-based care—are available for PTSD and major depression. Delivery of such care to all veterans with PTSD or major depression would pay for itself within two years, or even save money, by improving productivity and reducing medical and mortality costs. Such care may also be a cost-effective way to retain a ready and healthy military force for the future. However, to ensure that this care is delivered requires system-level changes across the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the U.S. health care system. This book should be of interest to mental health treatment providers; health policymakers, particularly those charged with caring for our nation’s veterans; and U.S. service men and women, their families, and the concerned public. Contents Introduction • The Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq—An Overview • Prevalence of PTSD, Depression, and TBI Among Returning Servicemembers • Survey of Individuals Previously Deployed for OEF/OIF • Predicting the Immediate and Long-Term Consequences of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, Depression, and Traumatic Brain Injury in Veterans of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom • The Cost of Post-Deployment Mental Health and Cognitive Conditions • Systems of Care • Challenges and Opportunities to Improve Access to High-Quality Care • Treating the Invisible Wounds of War • Conclusions and Recommendations

Also available

Invisible Wounds of War: Summary and Recommendations for Addressing Psychological and Cognitive Injuries 64 pp. • 2008 • $20.00 pb • MG-720/1-CCF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4453-2

Find additional resources, including free informational pamphlets for veterans and their families, online at: http://veterans.rand.org/

Consider For Courses In:

Psychiatry • Ethics and Military Profession • U.S. Defense Policy 498 pp. • 2008 • $55.50 pb • MG-720-CCF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4454-9

www.rand.org

New • Education/Child Policy Accountability and No Child Left Behind

Improving the Odds

Pain and Gain

Reparable Harm

Implementing No Child Left Behind in Three States Brian M. Stecher, Scott Epstein, Laura S. Hamilton, Julie A. Marsh, Abby Robyn, Jennifer Sloan McCombs, Jennifer Lin Russell, Scott Naftel

A key component of the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) of 2001 was the requirement that each state develop a “standards-based accountability” (SBA) system, consisting of content and achievement standards in several subjects, tests that measure students’ progress toward these standards, targets for performance, and consequences for schools and districts that do not meet the targets. This volume presents the final results of a multiyear R AND project to assess implementation of SBA for NCLB. It is the sequel to Standards-Based Accountability Under No Child Left Behind (see page 17) and updates those findings with an additional year of data, permitting further analyses of state-to-state differences and longerterm trends. Contents Summary • Introduction and Methods • Implementation of SBA in California • Implementation of SBA in Georgia • Implementation of SBA in Pennsylvania • Conclusions • Appendixes • References Consider for courses in:

Education and Public Policy • Educational Statistics • Methods of Education Research 220 pp. • 2008 • $31.50 pb • MG-784-NSF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4610-9

U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology Titus Galama and James Hosek

Is the United States in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T)? The authors find that the United States continues to lead the world in S&T; that it has kept pace or grown faster than other nations on several measurements of S&T performance; and that it generally benefits from the influx of foreign S&T students and workers. The authors conclude with recommendations to strengthen the U.S. S&T enterprise. Contents Summary • Introduction • What Are the Implications of the Globalization of S&T and the Rise of Other Nations for U.S. Performance in S&T? • What Evidence Suggests That the United States Has Been Underinvesting in S&T? • Discussion and Recommendations • Appendix Consider for courses in:

Technology and Information Management • Public Policy 188 pp. • 2008 • $32.00 pb • MG-674-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4424-2

Assessing and Addressing Disparities Faced by Boys and Men of Color in California Lois M. Davis, M. Rebecca Kilburn, Dana Schultz

“Health is an asset and a resource critical to human development that benefits society as a whole. But realizing health for all members of society is a matter of social justice, which depends on reducing social and economic inequality and increasing democracy. This book is a wonderful addition to the documentation of disparities experienced by Latino and black males and begins to suggest potential interventions to improve opportunities for them in California.” —Robert Valdez, Executive Director of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Center for Health Policy; Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Professor of Family and Community Medicine and Economics at the University of New Mexico.

Racial and ethnic disparities exist across a broad spectrum of society, disparities which often build on each other to create serious disadvantages. Boys and men of color are particularly vulnerable—they have lower high school graduation rates, a greater likelihood of going to prison, and higher mortality rates from homicide than their white counterparts. This volume provides a broad overview of areas where the disparities for boys and men of color are greatest as a way to identify possible starting points for addressing these disparities. Despite the high odds working against boys and men of color, the authors offer reason for hope. They identify significant areas of opportunity, including effective programs, practices, and policies, in which to begin making an important difference in changing the life course of boys and men of color. The results will be of interest to foundations, policymakers, community leaders, and others responsible for improving the well-being of California’s children and ensuring collaboration between key stakeholders at the state and local levels to address these issues. Contents Summary • Introduction • Disparities in a Social Determinant Context • What are the Odds for Boys and Men of Color in California? • Raising the Odds • Conclusions • Appendixes • References Consider for courses in:

Race and Ethnicity • Social Welfare Policy • Politics of Poverty • Economics of Racial Discrimination 126 pp. • color interior • 2009 • $55.00 pb • MG-745-TCE • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4561-4

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New • Science and Technology/Transportation Challenges in 21st Century Transportation

Strategies for Reducing Gridlock

Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels

Moving Los Angeles

Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs Michael Toman, Aimee Curtright, David S. Ortiz, Joel Darmstadter, Brian Shannon

High import payments for petroleum motor fuels and concerns regarding emissions of carbon dioxide are motivating interest in possible fuel substitutes. In this volume, the authors assess the potential future production levels, production costs, greenhouse gases, and other environmental implications of synthetic crude oil extracted from oil sands and fuels produced via coal liquefaction relative to conventional petroleum-based transportation fuels. The findings indicate the potential cost-competitiveness of these alternative fuels and the potential trade-offs that their deployment requires between economic and environmental considerations. Contents Summary • Introduction • History and Context of Unconventional Fossil-Resource Development • Carbon Capture and Storage for Unconventional Fuels • Oil Sands and Synthetic Crude Oil • Coal-to-Liquids Production • Competitiveness of Unit Fuel Costs for Synthetic Crude Oil and Coal-to-Liquids • Conclusions • References Consider for courses in:SS

Economics of Transportation • Transportation Planning 108 pp. • 2008 • $37.50 pb • TR-580-NCEP • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4564-5

The State of U.S. Railroads A Review of Capacity and Performance Data

Brian A. Weatherford, Henry H. Willis, David S. Ortiz

The volume of freight transported in the United States is expected to double in the next 30 years. Shippers and policymakers are concerned that the existing infrastructure— much diminished after decades of track abandonment— lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate the increased demand for rail freight. U.S. railroads have improved their productivity, but increasing freight volume threatens to cause performance-degrading capacity constraints. This report describes the current state of railroad capacity and performance for freight transportation. Contents Summary • Introduction • Capacity • Performance • Observations and Recommendations • References Consider for courses in:

Economics of Transportation • Transportation Planning 64 pp. • 2008 • $24.00 pb • TR-603-UPSF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4505-8

Short-Term Policy Options for Improving Transportation Paul Sorensen, Martin Wachs, Endy Y. Min, Aaron Kofner, Liisa Ecola, Mark Hanson, Allison Yoh, Thomas Light, James Griffin

“The report provides a storehouse of information that will assist transportation planners and policymakers for many years to come. It is well researched and well written, providing an insightful overview of the congestion phenomenon and conditions in Los Angeles County.” —Richard W. Willson, Ph.D., FAICP, Professor and Chair, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

The Los Angeles region, according to many studies, has the most severe traffic congestion in the United States. Excessive traffic congestion detracts from quality of life, is economically wasteful, is environmentally damaging, and exacerbates social justice concerns. Residents and policymakers agree that something must be done. The authors discuss traffic congestion in general, focus on the characteristics and severity of congestion in L.A. County, then identify a range of congestionreduction strategies that could be implemented and produce effects within the near term, defined as roughly five years or less. They recommend a set of strategies that offer the greatest prospects for reducing congestion and improving transportation in Los Angeles, while considering strategies for building political consensus around effective, albeit potentially controversial, congestionreduction measures. Though the specific recommendations proffered in the book are tailored to the L.A. region, leaders in other cities who are interested in strategies to reduce congestion should also find the study to be of value. This summary volume includes the full volume and extensive appendixes on CD. Contents (Main Volume/CD) Summary • Introduction • A Primer on Congestion • Characterizing Congestion in Los Angeles • Diagnosing Congestion in Los Angeles • Short-Term Congestion-Reduction Options • Short-Term Congestion-Reduction Recommendations • Political Consensus-Building Recommendations • Final Thoughts • Appendixes (31) • References Consider for courses in:

Urban/Transportation Planning • Politics of Urban Development 78 pp. (summary) • color charts • 640 pp. on included CD • 2008 • $35.00 pb • MG-748-ISE • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4555-3

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New • History/Memoir A Memoir of Defense Analysis

From Random Digits to the Internet

Thinking About America’s Defense

RAND and the Information Evolution

An Analytical Memoir

Glenn A. Kent, with David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, Bruce R. Pirnie Forewords by Thomas C. Schelling and Harold Brown

“He is still, at an age I won’t try to guess, just as capable of articulate economical language and perceptive analysis as when I first met him at RAND. Instead of enjoying the comfortable retirement he deserves, he has provided us with a personal history of U.S. nuclear strategy from the same keen point of view that I had seen displayed long ago.” —From the Foreword by Thomas C. Schelling

“[Kent] has done more to illuminate the decision process on key Department of Defense issues through analysis than any other individual…. He has also induced a variety of senior military leaders and civilian officials (including me) to think more clearly and decide issues more rationally.” —From the Foreword by Harold Brown

Lieutenant General Glenn A. Kent, a uniquely acute analyst and developer of American defense policy, followed a 33-year career in the Air Force with more than 20 years at R AND. This volume offers a summary of the critical national security issues in which Kent was personally engaged over the course of his career, including developing and analyzing strategic nuclear arms control agreements, helping to bring new weapon systems to life, and dozens of others. Each vignette describes the analytical frameworks that Kent developed and applied to gain insights into the issue at hand, and which continue to inform decisionmaking today. Kent also relates his roles in much of the bureaucratic pulling and hauling that occurred as these issues were being addressed within the government.

A History in Essays and Vignettes Willis H. Ware

The R AND Corporation played a pivotal role in the development of computer science. This memoir describes R AND’s contributions to the evolution of computer science, particularly during the first decades following World War II, when digital computers succeeded slide rules, mechanical desk calculators, electric accounting machines, and analog computers. R AND’s accomplishments included important advances not only in hardware and software but also in analytic techniques that exploited the speed and power of computers. From the beginning, R AND researchers were focused on using computers to improve applied studies that addressed complex, real-world problems. They also addressed the problem of infusing computing capability into an organization and helped to define the emerging profession of computer science. This memoir includes dozens of fascinating photographs and vignettes that reveal the collegial, creative, and often playful spirit in which this groundbreaking research was conducted at R AND. Contents Introduction • The Department • R AND’s First Computer People • R AND’s Early Computers • A Building for People with Computers • Project Essays • Lore, Snippets, and Snapshots • Epilogue • Bibliography • Index Consider for courses in:

Technology and Information Management • History of Computer Science 228 pp. • 2008 • $34.00 pb • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4513-3

Contents Foreword: Creating Strategic Analysis (Thomas C. Schelling) • Foreword: Putting Analysis to Work (Harold Brown) • Introduction (David Ochmanek, Bruce Pirnie, and Michael Spirtas) • The Single Integrated Operational Plan • Nuclear Weapons: Strategy and Arms Control • Analysis, Force Planning, and the Paradigm for Modernizing • Modernizing Nuclear Forces • Modernizing Conventional Forces • Analytical Tools • Summing Up: Kent’s Maxims • Chronology • Awards • Bibliography Consider for courses in:

U.S. Defense Policy • Military History 282 pp. • 2008 • $34.50 pb • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4452-5

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New • Nation-Building • Middle East U.S. Efforts in Iraq

Presidents and Nation-Building

After Saddam

After the War

Nora Bensahel, Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Richard R. Brennan, Jr., Heather S. Gregg, Thomas Sullivan, Andrew Rathmell

James Dobbins, Michele A. Poole, Austin Long, Benjamin Runkle

Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq

Major combat operations in Iraq lasted approximately three weeks, but stabilization efforts in that country are still ongoing. This volume begins by examining prewar planning efforts for postwar Iraq, in order to establish what U.S. policymakers expected the postwar situation to look like and what their plans were for reconstruction. The authors then examine the role of U.S. military forces, as well as civilian efforts at reconstruction, after major combat officially ended, and conclude with a discussion of why the U.S. government was unprepared for the challenges of postwar Iraq. Contents Summary • Introduction • Military Planning Efforts • Civilian Planning Efforts • Task Force IV • The Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance • Humanitarian Planning • Combat Operations During Phase IV • The Coalition Provisional Authority • Building New Iraqi Security Forces • Governance and Political Reconstruction • Economic Policy • Essential Services and Infrastructure • Assessing Postwar Efforts • Appendix: Strategic Studies Institute’s Mission Matrix for Iraq • Bibliography Consider for courses in:

Global Security Environment • U.S. Defense Policy 312 pp. • 2008 • $38.00 pb • MG-642-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4458-7

Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan U.S. Air Force Roles

David E. Thaler, Theodore W. Karasik, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Frederic Wehrey, Obaid Younossi, Farhana Ali, Robert A. Guffey

The United States is heavily invested—diplomatically, economically, and militarily—in Iraq and Afghanistan, and developments in these two nations will affect not only their own interests but those of their neighbors and the United States as well. The authors frame potential long-term U.S. security relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan in a regional context and discuss the role of U.S. forces, especially the Air Force, in supporting these relationships under a variety of contingencies.

Nation-Building from FDR to George W. Bush

“Jim Dobbins and his co-authors do a terrific job of summarizing the approaches of several administrations to addressing the issues associated with nationbuilding. The study is well-sourced throughout and reflects the situations as they actually were, stripped of the usual filters associated with bias and attempts to re-write history by key players.” —David Rothkopf, author of Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and the Architects of American Power

A key challenge for the next presidential administration will be in shaping the United States’ role in nationbuilding—guiding efforts already under way and deciding whether and how to commit the U.S. to new operations. The U.S. has participated in at least eight significant nation-building operations since World War II—in Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. These eight cases can be split into three distinct periods: the post–World War II era under the administrations of Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman; the post–Cold War administrations of George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton; and the post-9/11 cases under the administration of George W. Bush. After discussing general theories of administration, leadership, and authority, the authors examine nationbuilding operations, distribution of responsibility, the place of U.S. efforts in larger international efforts, and the impact of decisionmaking structures during each period. Finally, combining theory and evidence, the authors draw conclusions about the influence of decisionmaking style and structure on American nation-building. Contents Summary • Introduction • Presidential Style, Institutional Structure, and Bureaucratic Process • Post–World War II NationBuilding: Germany and Japan • Post–Cold War Nation-Building: Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo • Post-9/11 Nation-Building: Afghanistan and Iraq • Toward Better Decisions and More Competent Execution • Bibliography Consider for courses in:

U.S. Foreign Policy • International Peacekeeping/Humanitarian Intervention 146 pp. • $25.00 pb • 2008 • MG-716 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4181-4

See other titles in the acclaimed RAND Nation-Building series on page 23.

182 pp. • 2008 • $32.00 pb • MG-681-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4197-5

www.rand.org

New • Terrorism/Middle East Terrorism’s Lessons Learned

The Writings of Jihad

How Terrorist Groups End

In Their Own Words

Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida Seth G. Jones and Martin C. Libicki

“How Terrorist Groups End is a solid piece of research. It is extremely well written and insightful, and its conclusions should strongly influence U.S. counterterrorism policy.” —Daniel L. Byman, director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and senior fellow with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution

All terrorist groups eventually end. But how do they end? By analyzing 648 different terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006, the authors reveal that most groups have ended because they joined the political process or because local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members. Military force has rarely been the primary reason for the end of terrorist groups, and few groups within this time frame have achieved victory. This has significant implications for dealing with al Qa’ida and suggests fundamentally rethinking post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism strategy. The authors review also shows that religious terrorist groups take longer to eliminate than other groups and rarely achieve their objectives. Perhaps not surprisingly, the largest groups achieve their goals more often and last longer than the smallest ones do. Finally, groups from upper-income countries are more likely to be left-wing or nationalist and less likely to have religion as their motivation. How Terrorist Groups End concludes that policing and intelligence, rather than military force, should form the backbone of U.S. efforts against al Qa’ida. And U.S. policymakers should end the use of the phrase “war on terrorism” since there is no battlefield solution to defeating al Qa’ida. Contents Summary • Introduction • How Terrorist Groups End • Policing and Japan’s Aum Shinrikyo • Politics and the FMLN in El Salvador • Military Force and al Qa’ida in Iraq • The Limits of U.S. al Qa’ida Strategy • Ending the “War” on Terrorism • Appendixes • References • Index Consider for courses in:

Global Security Environment • Middle East Studies • Terrorism and Political Conflict

Voices of Jihad

Compilation and Commentary by David Aaron

“A revealing exposure of the appalling views of the fanatical jihadists—which also correctly notes the important fact that these views represent only a small but dangerous minority of [Muslims].” —Zbigniew Brezezinski, Former U.S. National Security Advisor (1977–1981)

“David Aaron, one of the country’s finest policy experts and clearest minds, has put together a wise and muchneeded encyclopedia of jihadist rhetoric. As he says in his introduction, ‘we do have an enemy, and we need to pay attention to how it thinks and what it plans to do to us.’ It is a truly scary story.” —Bob Woodward, Assistant Managing Editor, the Washington Post

In Their Own Words presents the actual statements and writings of jihadis as they express their viewpoints on every imaginable subject relevant to their cause. Jihadis’ statements are often more appalling and more profoundly revealing than the accounts that have been written about jihadi terrorism. This book provides unfiltered access to a broad range of the stories, rationales, ideas, and arguments of jihadi terrorists and those who support them. Not all of the quotations are from prominent jihadis. Some have been selected because they are representative, others because they are contradictory, and still others because they provide a unique insight into the jihadi mentality. Introductory and contextual material is also included, to provide the background and origins of what jihadis are saying—to each other and to the world. Contents Introduction • Life in Jihad • Seeds of Jihad • Ideology • World View • Enemies • “Prescribed for You Is Fighting” • Iraq and Afghanistan • Operations • Conclusion Consider for courses in :

Global Security Environment • Middle East Studies 348 pp. • $35.00 pb • 2008 • MG-602-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4402-0

Visit the related database at: www.rand.org/research_areas/terrorism/database/

252 pp. • 2008 • $33.00 pb • MG-741-1-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4465-5

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New • Middle East Policy Democratic Change in the Middle East

Alternative Voices in the Muslim World

More Freedom, Less Terror?

RAND Alternative Strategy Initiative

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic Wehrey, Audra K. Grant, Dale Stahl

Cheryl Benard, Edward O’Connell

Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World

“This important and timely book does more to empirically examine the relationship between democratic change and political violence in the Arab world than anything else I have seen. Its insightful and intelligent analysis is admirably free of any apparent political or theoretical bias. The case studies make for particularly absorbing reading and add a great deal to our understanding of each country, as well as to our grasp of the broader theoretical and policy issues surrounding this debate.” —Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University Contents Summary “Democracy” and Terrorism in the Arab World: A Framework for Analysis • Egypt • Jordan • Bahrain • Saudi Arabia • Algeria • Morocco • Conclusion • Bibliography

A Conference on Creative Use of the Media for Understanding and Tolerance

The R AND Alternative Strategy Initiative held a conference in Doha, Qatar, in March 2007, with the goal of highlighting groundbreaking indigenous media initiatives with important social content. This groundbreaking DVD contains an overview of the conference and highlights from it, including conference proceedings and interviews with the presenters. DVD Contents • Conference Highlights (8 min. video) • Comments from Conference Hosts (23 min. video) • Selections from the Conference Proceedings, with browsing options by presenter, topic, and keyword (60 min. video) • Information about the conference: conference description, purpose, agenda, sponsors, presenter biographies, and acknowledgments • Additional content: Adolescent Colors (4 min. video) • Mahmood Story (7 min. video) Consider for courses in:

Global Security Environment • Middle East Studies

International Reporting/Communication • Middle Eastern/ Islamic Studies

228 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $39.00 pb • MG-772-RC •

2008 • $ 29.50 DVD (dual region) • CF-242-OSD •

ISBN: 978-0-8330-4508-9

ISBN: 978-08330-4455-6

The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey

Facing Human Capital Challenges of the 21st Century

Consider for courses in:

Angel Rabasa, F. Stephen Larrabee

Turkey, a Muslim-majority country, is pivotal to Western security interests in the Middle East. This book describes the politico-religious landscape in Turkey and evaluates how the balance between secular and religious forces as changed over the past decade. The authors also assess the new challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy in the changed Turkish political environment. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Islamic Landscape in Turkey • The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey • The AKP in Power • The AKP’s Foreign Policy • Future Prospects and Implications Consider for courses in:

Middle East Studies • Global Security Environment 134 pp. • 2008 • $24.50 pb • MG-726-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4457-0

Education and Labor Market Initiatives in Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates

Gabriella Gonzalez, Lynn A. Karoly, Louay Constant, Hanine Salem, Charles A. Goldman

The authors describe education and labor market initiatives, designed to develop skills and technical knowledge, which have been implemented or are under way in four countries in the Arab region, highlighting the variety of challenges and responses to those challenges. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Economic and Sociopolitical Context for Reform in the Four Study Countries • Qatar • The United Arab Emirates • Sultanate of Oman • Lebanon • Conclusions • Appendixes • References Consider for courses in:

Middle East Studies 248 pp. • 2008 • $38.00 pb • MG-786-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4516-4

www.rand.org

New • Iran/China Understanding Iran

Challenges in the East

Iran’s Political, Economic, and Demographic Vulnerabilities

Pacific Currents

Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, Jeffrey Martini

“[This volume] covers political, ethnic, and demographic issues, and predicts economic trajectories of growth. Clear and to-the-point, the book finishes with a set of policy recommendations that include discouraging ethnic groups from violently opposing the regime and encouraging the development of markets as the buying power of the electorate translates into less control by the regime. It also recommends that the U.S. not oppose Iran’s accession to the WTO. Libraries and bookstores can’t go wrong with [this] slender volume. [It is] indispensable for historians, journalists, academics, and policy makers.” —Foreword Magazine Contents Introduction • Domestic Politics • The Challenge of Ethnicity and Identity Politics • Demographic Change • Economic Development and Vulnerabilities • Iranian Vulnerabilities and Implications for U.S. Policies • References Consider for courses in:

Middle East Studies • Global Security Environment • International Conflict 156 pp. • 2008 • $29.00 pb • MG-693-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4304-7

Understanding Iran Jerrold D. Green, Frederic Wehrey, Charles Wolf, Jr.

Iran remains among the most poorly understood countries in the world and, for most Americans, terra incognita. This volume, the result of a workshop and the authors’ own experience and analysis, is a concise, accessible handbook designed to help policymakers and citizens increase their understanding of this complex and fascinating country. The authors examine the processes, institutions, networks, and actors that define Iran’s politics, strategy, economic policy, and diplomacy, followed with an argument for negotiating with the Islamic Republic. Contents Introduction • Features of the Iranian System • Conclusion: Iran Is Unlike Other Countries but Hardly Beyond Understanding • Appendixes, including Workshop Papers • References

The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise Evan S. Medeiros, Keith Crane, Eric Heginbotham, Norman D. Levin, Julia F. Lowell, Angel Rabasa, Somi Seong

The inexorable rise of China’s economic, military, and diplomatic power has prompted worries that it is nudging aside U.S. influence in the AsiaPacific region. The authors examined six specific U.S. allies and partners—Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand—assessing the responses in each nation to China’s rise and assessed the implications for U.S. regional security interests. While all six nations see China primarily as a source of economic opportunity, many have concerns about China’s regional goals. U.S. security commitments are reassuring, bolstering these nations’ ability to engage China with confidence. Each wants U.S. involvement in the region to continue—but sometimes only in certain ways, at certain times, and on particular issues Thus, they are pulling China closer for the economic opportunities it offers and the United States closer for the general reassurance that its long-standing power and influence provide. This book is part of a substantial and growing body of R AND Corporation research—now spanning over a decade—examining the changing regional security environment in Asia and, specifically, China’s improving diplomatic and military capabilities. It should be of interest to policymakers and military planners focused on ensuring that the United States maintains maximum access to the region and maximum freedom of maneuver in conducting U.S. diplomacy and military affairs. It should also be of interest to specialists and students of China and East Asia. Contents Summary • Introduction • China’s Changing Economic Relations with Asia • Japan • South Korea • The Philippines • Thailand • Singapore • Australia • Conclusions • Bibliography Consider for courses in:

Comparative Foreign Policy • Asian Studies • Global Security Environment 308 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $52.00 pb • MG-736-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4464-8

Consider for courses in:

Middle East Studies • Global Security Environment • International Conflict 166 pp. • 2008 • $34.50 pb • MG-771-SRF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4558-4

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New • International Policy The Strategic Role of Deterrence

Avoiding the Road to Total War

Deterrence— From Cold War to Long War

Dangerous Thresholds

Lessons from Six Decades of RAND Research Austin Long

Since its inception six decades ago, the R AND Corporation has been one of the key institutions to study deterrence. This book examines six decades of research for lessons relevant to the current and future strategic environments. The author also makes specific recommendations about policies and force structures the United States should pursue to maximize its deterrent capabilities. Contents Summary • Thinking (and Rethinking) the Unthinkable: R AND and Deterrence • A Too-Distant Mirror? The Relevance of Prior Deterrence • Department of Defense as Ministry of Fear: The Theory of Deterrence • Avoiding the Garrison State: Deterrence as a Strategy • Deflecting the Sword of Damocles: Strategic Defense and Deterrence • The Other Side of the Hill: Understanding the Adversary and Deterrence • Deterrence Then and Now • Annotated Bibliography • References Consider for courses in:

International Relations • Global Security Environment 124 pp. • 2008 • $25.00 pb • MG-636-OSD/AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4482-2

The Challenge of NuclearArmed Regional Adversaries David Ochmanek, Lowell H. Schwartz

Nuclear weapons are within the reach of determined regional powers. This book examines the strategic and force planning implications of this shift in the international security environment. To improve the United States’ military and political leverage in high-stakes situations, the authors argue that a great deal more needs to be done to develop and field capabilities that can prevent the enemy’s use of nuclear weapons. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Uniquely Destructive Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons • Characteristics of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries • Strategies and Actions of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries • Implications for U.S. Military Strategy, Operations, and Planning

Managing Escalation in the 21st Century Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, Roger Cliff

“This is an excellent book that should be widely read. The summary is excellent and the chapter describing the nature of escalation is as valuable as anything I know in the strategic literature. I especially like the definition of escalation, with the emphasis on thresholds—including the importance of understanding the enemy’s perception of thresholds and the need for careful systematic study of the enemy’s cultural outlook on thresholds. The authors have written a highly original book that deserves the widest possible audience.” —Thomas C. Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland School of Public Affairs; 2005 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics

Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition. When such competition entails military confrontation or war, the pressure to escalate can become intense because of the potential cost of losing conflicts of deadly force. This examination of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad. It reveals that, to manage the risks of escalatory chain reactions in future conflicts, military and political leaders will need to understand and dampen the mechanisms of deliberate, accidental, and inadvertent escalation. Informing the analysis are the results of two modified Delphi exercises, which focused on a potential conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan and a potential conflict between states and nonstate actors in the event of a collapse of Pakistan’s government. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Nature of Escalation • China’s Thinking on Escalation: Evidence from Chinese Military Writings • Regional Nuclear Powers • Escalation in Irregular Warfare • Managing Escalation in a Complex World • Appendixes • Bibliography Consider for courses in:

Global Security Environment • International Conflict 274 pp. • $35.00 pb • 2008 • MG-614-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4213-2

Consider for courses in:

International Relations • Global Security Environment • International Conflict 78 pp. • 2008 • $21.00 pb • MG-671-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4232-3

www.rand.org

New • Counterinsurgency The Many Sides of the COIN

Counterinsurgency in Practice

War by Other Means—Building Complete and Balanced Capabilities for Counterinsurgency

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Final Report

David C. Gompert, John Gordon IV, with Adam Grissom, David R. Frelinger, Seth G. Jones, Martin C. Libicki, Edward O’Connell, Brooke K. Stearns, Robert E. Hunter

“There is a firm consensus that the largely American invasion and occupation of Iraq has fuelled rather than quelled Islamist terrorism worldwide, and that flawed US counter-insurgency efforts, at best only partially and tenuously ameliorated by the ‘surge’, have intensified this perverse effect. The RAND Corporation’s capstone counterinsurgency study acknowledges as much…. The study sensibly concludes that better civil, informational, analytic, management and training—in a word, ‘soft power’— capabilities are needed.” —Survival

This capstone volume to the R AND Counterinsurgency Study draws on other reports in the series as well as an examination of 89 insurgencies since World War II, an analysis of the new challenges posed by global insurgency, and lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan. The authors evaluate three types of counterinsurgency (COIN) capabilities: civil capabilities; informational and cognitive capabilities; and security capabilities. The authors conclude by outlining the investments, organizational changes, and international arrangements that the United States should pursue to improve its COIN capabilities. Contents Summary • Part I: The Challenge • Defining the Problem • Framing the Problem • Countering Type III Insurgency • Part II: Complete and Balanced Capabilities • Overview of Capabilities Needed to Counter Type III Insurgency • Civil Capabilities • Information Capabilities • Perception and Cognition • General Security Capabilities • Local Security Capabilities • U.S. Security Capabilities • Part III: Organizing and Investing • Multilateral Counterinsurgency • Investment Priorities • Organization: Unsettled Structures for Unsettled Times • Implications and Recommendations • Appendixes

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 4 Seth G. Jones

“Jones’s work is the best available on the security situation and insurgency in Afghanistan and the difficulties Western military forces face in this troubled country.” —Daniel Byman, Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University and author of Deadly Connections: States That Sponsor Terrorism

“What are the major factors that allow an insurgency to develop and stick? Native lawlessness and a foreign safe haven for resting and resupply. The mujahadeen hid from the Soviets in Pakistan, now Pakistan also protects the Taliban. Jones, who has made repeated trips to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India since 2004, stresses the importance of involving local populations in counterinsurgency operations. The history and strategies in this book are important for understanding the nature of unconventional warfare, no matter where in the world it is.” —Foreword Magazine

This volume explores the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan, the key challenges and successes of the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign, and the capabilities necessary to wage effective counterinsurgency operations. By examining the key lessons from all insurgencies since World War II, the author finds that most policymakers repeatedly underestimate the importance of indigenous actors to counterinsurgency efforts. The author concludes that the United States should focus its resources on helping improve the capacity of the indigenous government and indigenous security forces to wage counterinsurgency. Contents Introduction • Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare • The Age of Insurgency • Insurgents and Their Support Network • Afghan Government and Security Forces • U.S and Coalition Forces • Recommendations • Insurgencies Since 1945 Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and International Conflict • Security Studies 176 pp. • 2008 • $26.50 pb • MG-595-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4133-3

Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and International Conflict • Security Studies 518 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $42.50 pb • MG-595/2-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4309-2

See additional RAND counterinsurgency titles on pages 29–30.

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New • Counterinsurgency COIN on the Ground

COIN and the Information Revolution

Counterinsurgency in Iraq (2003–2006)

Byting Back— Regaining Information Superiority Against 21st-Century Insurgents

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 2

Bruce R. Pirnie, Edward O’Connell

This volume presents an overview of the conflict in Iraq from 2003 through 2006, focusing on counterinsurgency (COIN). The authors analyze COIN operations in Iraq and offer recommendations based on that experience for future COIN operations. The Iraq experience is particularly germane to drawing lessons about COIN. In essence, the conflict there is a local political power struggle overlaid with sectarian violence and fueled by fanatical foreign jihadists and criminal opportunists—a combination of factors likely to be replicated in insurgencies elsewhere. Contents Summary • Overview of the Conflict in Iraq • Armed Groups in Iraq • Counterinsurgency in Iraq • Accounting for Success and Failure • Building Effective Capabilities for Counterinsurgency • Recommendations Consider for courses in:

Military Tactics and Theory • Terrorism and International Conflict 134 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $26.50 pb • MG-595/3-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4297-2

Rethinking Counterinsurgency

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 5 John Mackinlay, Alison Al-Baddawy

British and U.S. counterinsurgency (COIN) operations have been slow to adapt to the rise of the global jihadist insurgency. During the period of decolonization in Asia and Africa, the United Kingdom faced more insurgent activity than any other Western power. The authors analyze past British COIN experience, explore the evolving nature of insurgency, and suggest a new COIN framework. Contents Summary • Introduction • Successful Insurgencies and Counterinsurgencies • Defining the Environment • Rethinking Strategy and Operations Consider for courses in:

Military Tactics and Theory • Terrorism and International Conflict 80 pp. • 2008 • $23.00 pb • MG-595/5-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4475-4

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 1

Martin C. Libicki, David C. Gompert, David R. Frelinger, Raymond Smith

The authors argue that today’s military and intelligence networks—designed to be closed, compartmentalized, controlled by information providers instead of users, and limited to U.S. warfighters—hamper counterinsurgency efforts and deprive the U.S. of what ought to be a strategic advantage. The authors call for current networks to be replaced by an integrated counterinsurgency operating network (ICON) linking U.S. and indigenous operators, based on principles of inclusiveness, integration, and user preeminence. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Influence of User Requirements • The Registry-Census • A Well-Wired Country • Embedded Video • A National Wiki • The Principles of ICON • Implications and Implementation • Appendix Consider for courses in:

Military Tactics and Theory • Terrorism and International Conflict 194 pp. • 2007 • $23.00 pb • MG-595/1-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4189-0

Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies Walter L. Perry, John Gordon IV

This volume examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques, such as pattern discernment and predictive analysis, to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies. The authors also explore methods of game theory and change detection to examine the interactions between friendly and enemy forces. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Nature of Modern Insurgency • The Dominance of Intelligence • The Analytic Questions • Intelligence Analysis • Conclusions • References Consider for courses in:

Military Tactics and Theory • Terrorism and International Conflict 84 pp. • 2008 • $24.00 pb • MG-682-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4456-3

www.rand.org

New • Homeland Security Options for the Struggle Against Terrorism

Lessons for Domestic Intelligence

Reorganizing U.S. Domestic Intelligence

The Challenge of Domestic Intelligence in a Free Society

Assessing the Options Gregory F. Treverton

In the fight against terrorism, does the United States need a dedicated domestic intelligence agency separate from law enforcement? Congress directed the Department of Homeland Security to perform an independent study on the feasibility of creating a counterterrorism intelligence agency; the department turned to R AND for this analysis but asked it specifically not to make a recommendation. This volume lays out the relevant considerations for creating such an agency. Contents Summary • Introduction: Domestic Intelligence in Context • Defining Domestic Intelligence • Current Domestic Intelligence Arrangements and Their Performance • A Range of Options for Improving Domestic Intelligence • Assessing Structural Options • Weighing Pros and Cons: An Approach for Considering the Uncertain Costs and Benefits of Organizational Change • Conclusions: The Path Forward • Appendixes • References Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and Homeland Security 150 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $28.00 pb • MG-767-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4501-0

Considering the Creation of a Domestic Intelligence Agency in the United States Lessons from the Experiences of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom Edited by Brian A. Jackson

In the current environment, the threat of terrorism is a major shaping force of many nations’ international and domestic security policy. As part of R AND’s multivolume study on the feasibility of creating a new domestic counterterrorism intelligence agency, this volume presents case studies of other nations’ domestic intelligence organizations and activities. Contents Introduction • Australia • Canada • France • Germany • United Kingdom • Domestic Intelligence Agencies after 9/11: How Five Nations Have Grappled with the Evolving Threat • Conclusions— Lessons for the United States Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and Homeland Security • International Intelligence

A Multidisciplinary Look at the Creation of a U.S. Domestic Counterterrorism Intelligence Agency Edited by Brian A. Jackson

This volume contains a series of papers examining the U.S. context for domestic intelligence, current activities, and varied approaches for assessing intelligence options. Contents Introduction • Part I: The United States Context for Domestic Counterterrorism Intelligence • The History of Domestic Intelligence in the United States—Lessons for Assessing the Creation of a New Counterterrorism Intelligence Agency • Current Domestic Intelligence Efforts in the United States • Societal Acceptability of Domestic Intelligence • The Law and the Creation of a New Domestic Intelligence Agency in the United States • Part II: Exploring Different Approaches for Thinking About Creating a U.S. Domestic Counterterrorism Intelligence Agency in the United States • Weighing Organizational Models for a New Domestic Agency • Privacy and Civil Liberties Protections in a New Domestic Agency • Exploring Measures of Effectiveness for Domestic Intelligence—Addressing Questions of Capability and Acceptability • Exploring the Utility of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Considering • Domestic Intelligence Policy Change • Conclusions Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and Homeland Security 318 pp. • color charts • 2009 • $41.50 pb • MG-804-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4616-1

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis Gregory F. Treverton, C. Bryan Gabbard

This report assesses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, and makes a number of recommendations for improving analysis for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War. The authors focus on the two essentials of analysis—first, people; and second, the tools they have available—and find specific initiatives with promise. But they authors also find that a fundamental change is also needed in attitudes and existing organizational cultures. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Analytic Community Today • Key Themes for Leveraging Future R&D Priorities • Building the Human Capital for the Future • A Vision of the Analytic Community Tomorrow • Recommended Actions

218 pp.(est.) • color charts • 2009 • $33.50 pb • MG-805-DHS •

Consider for courses in:

ISBN: 978-0-8330-4617-8

Terrorism and Homeland Security • International Intelligence 74 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $20.00 pb • TR-293 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3958-3

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New • Homeland Running Security/Terrorism Header Technology, Terrorism, and Public Safety

Piracy and Terrorism

Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland

Film Piracy, Organized Crime, and Terrorism

Brian A. Jackson, David R. Frelinger, Michael J. Lostumbo, Robert W. Button

This volume examines the involvement of organized crime and terrorist groups in a booming line of business—counterfeiting—focusing particularly on film piracy. Although their motivations may differ, for both groups piracy is high in payoff and low in risk, often flying under the radar of law enforcement. The authors detail the connections between organized criminal syndicates and counterfeiting, and present case studies of terrorist groups that engage in counterfeiting. The authors then explore the implications of that involvement and offer recommendations for both law enforcement and policymakers.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles

The authors examine the suitability of cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles by terrorist groups and assess defensive options to address these threats. The volume concludes with a discussion of cross-cutting lessons about this threat and the assessment of novel threats in general. Contents Summary • Introduction • UAVs and Cruise Missiles as Asymmetric Threats: How Do These Systems Compare with Alternative Attack Modes? • What Adversary Operational Problems Can UAVs and Cruise Missiles Best Solve and How Do UAVs and Cruise Missiles Compare with Alternative Solutions? • What Are the Terrorist Group Characteristics and Preferences Relevant to the Acquisition and Use of Technology? • Considering Defensive Strategies and Options • Conclusions Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and Homeland Security 128 pp. • 2008 • $24.00 pb • MG-626-DTRA • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4169-2

The Role of the United States Postal Service in Public Safety and Security Implications of Proposed Relaxation of the Mailbox Monopoly

Lois M. Davis, Michael Pollard, Jeremiah Goulka, Katherine Mack, Russell Lundberg, Paul Steinberg

The United States Postal Service (USPS) holds a monopoly to deliver mail to mailboxes. Relaxing the monopoly could effect public safety and security, including terrorism, given the use of the mail to send letter bombs and anthrax. The authors assess security issues related to the possible relaxation of the USPS’s monopoly to allow private couriers to deliver directly to mailboxes. Contents Summary • Introduction • An Overview of USPS: Its Monopolies and Its Role in Public Safety • Impact of Relaxing the Mailbox Rule on Public Safety and Security Incidents • Impact of Relaxing the Mailbox Rule on the Postal Inspection Service’s Ability to Detect, Deter, and Investigate Crimes • Public Concerns • Conclusions • Appendixes • References

Gregory F. Treverton, Carl Matthies, Karla J. Cunningham, Jeremiah Goulka, Greg Ridgeway, Anny Wong

Contents Summary • Introduction: Defining the Issues • Organized Crime and Terrorism • The Shape of Counterfeiting and the Example of Film Piracy • Getting Down to Cases: Organized Crime and Film Piracy • Terrorism and Film Piracy: Known Cases • The Role of Governments: “Protected Spaces” for Crime • Innovations in Enforcement • The Way Forward • Appendixes • References Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and International Conflict • Digital Policy 190 pp. • Includes CD • 2009 • $29.50 pb • MG-742-MPA • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4565-2

The Maritime Dimension of International Security Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United States Peter Chalk

The vast size and highly unregulated nature of the world’s waterways have made the maritime environment an increasingly attractive theater for perpetrators of transnational violence. Piracy and seaborne terrorism have been on the rise since 2000, and some analysts fear that terrorists may soon exploit the carefully calibrated freight trading system to trigger a global economic crisis, or use the container supply chain to transport weapons of mass destruction. While the United States has spearheaded several important initiatives to improve maritime security, the author urges policymakers to consider four additional measures to safeguard the world’s oceans. Contents Summary • Introduction • Piracy • Maritime Terrorism • A Piracy-Terrorism Nexus? • Relevance to the United States • Policy Recommendations • Appendix • References

Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and Homeland Security • Bioterrorism 220 pp. • 2008 • $33.00 pb • MG-800-USPS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4615-4

www.rand.org

Consider for courses in:

Terrorism and International Conflict • Maritime Affairs 80 pp. • 2008 • $23.00 pb • MG-697-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4299-6

New Running • MilitaryHeader Leadership Diversity in Defense Leadership

Developing Army and Navy Leaders

Planning for Diversity

Leader Development in Army Units

Options and Recommendations for DoD Leaders Nelson Lim, Michelle Cho, Kimberly Curry

Despite decades of efforts to promote racial and ethnic diversity, many groups are still underrepresented in leadership within the Department of Defense (DoD). The authors discuss the initial steps the DoD should take to develop a strategic plan to achieve greater diversity within its active duty and civilian leadership. Contents Summary • Introduction • Vision • Mission and Goals • Strategies • Measurement and Evaluation • Recommendations • Appendix: Summary of Discussions from the 2007 DoD Diversity Summit Consider for courses in:

Views from the Field

Peter Schirmer, James C. Crowley, Nancy E. Blacker, Richard R. Brennan, Jr., Henry A. Leonard, J. Michael Polich, Jerry M. Sollinger, Danielle M. Varda

Developing leaders is critical for the Army; given the amount of time officers spend in units, that experience should be important to their development. This volume summarizes discussions with over 450 Army officers (lieutenants through colonels) about leader development in Army units, and offers suggestions on how the Army school system can improve leader development. Contents Summary • Introduction • Study Participants and Methods • Overview of Unit-Level Leader Development • Commander’s Influence on Unit-Level Leader Development Activities • Counseling, Coaching, and Mentoring • Specific Elements of Leader Development Programs • Conclusions and Recommendations • Appendixes

Military Leadership • U.S. Defense Establishment

Consider for courses in:

130 pp. • 2008 • $24.50 pb • MG-743-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4471-6

Military Leadership • U.S. Defense Establishment

Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis David C. Gompert, Paul K. Davis, Stuart E. Johnson, Duncan Long

Even in the face of uncertainty, the costs and other implications of any strategy can be assessed by examining the capabilities needed by U.S. combatant commands to fulfill what the strategy expects of them. The authors demonstrate how such “outside-in” strategy assessment can be integrated with “inside-out” analysis of how core national strengths can best be exploited in national defense. Contents Summary • Introduction • The Operating-Unit Perspective • Illustrating and Analyzing Strategy • Basing Strategy on Core Strengths • Conclusion • Bibliography Consider for courses in:

Military Leadership • Military Tactics and Theory 96 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $30.50 pb • MG-718-JS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4503-4 Also available

Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations Paul K. Davis, Stuart E. Johnson, Duncan Long, David C. Gompert,

A valuable companion guide to the above report.

176 pp. • 2008 • $26.00 pb • MG-648-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4200-2

Developing Senior Navy Leaders

Requirements for Flag Officer Expertise Today and in the Future Lawrence M. Hanser, Louis W. Miller, Herbert J. Shukiar, Bruce Newsome

Navy leaders have become increasingly concerned that senior officers need additional kinds of expertise, beyond those traditionally developed in naval officers, to be successful in commanding, leading, and managing the U.S. Navy enterprise. The authors identify the expertise requirements of senior Navy leadership positions, the types of experience likely to become more important in the future, and offer recommendations on how the Navy might better prepare officers for senior leadership roles. Contents Summary • Introduction • Background • A Framework for Understanding Flag Officer Billet Requirements • A Closer Look at Expertise Requirements • Matching Domain Expertise to Billets in the Navy Flag Officer Force • RDML Selectees: Comparison with Model-Determined Requirements • An Exploration of Future Requirements • Conclusions and Recommendations • Appendixes Consider for courses in:

Military Leadership • U.S. Defense Establishment 176 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $28.00 pb • MG-618-NAVY • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4294-1

202 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $40.00 pb • MG-703-JS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4502-7

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The Arts • Child Policy

The Arts Revitalizing Arts Education Through Community-Wide Coordination Sue Bodilly and Catherine Augustine with Laura Zakaras

Arts education has struggled to remain a part of publicly funded K–12 education in the face of reduced state and local budgets and demands for increased accountability in reading and math. Still, some communities make great efforts to preserve arts education through coordination among providers and those who influence its provision. The authors examine efforts in six urban communities to improve arts education provision in their locales through collaborative means. 108 pp. • 2008 • $20.00 pb • MG-702-WF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4306-1

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Gifts of the Muse Reframing the Debate About the Benefits of the Arts Kevin F. McCarthy, Elizabeth H. Ondaatje, Laura Zakaras, Arthur Brooks

“I strongly support the central message of Gifts of the Muse. Although the arts bestow important secondary benefits—economic, educational, social, and therapeutic—it is their intrinsic value that makes them essential and irreplaceable. The arts enhance, enlarge, and awaken our humanity in ways no other activities can equal.” —Dana Gioia, Chairman, National Endowment for the Arts 124 pp. • 2004 • $20.00 pb • MG-218-WF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3694-0

Cultivating Demand for the Arts Arts Learning, Arts Engagement, and State Arts Policy Laura Zakaras and Julia Lowell

To shed light on the decline in demand for the nonprofit arts, the authors describe what it means to cultivate demand for the arts, examine how well U.S. institutions are serving this function, and discuss whether it is in the public interest to make such cultivation a higher priority than it has been in the past. This volume offers a new framework for thinking about supply and demand in the arts, suggesting that too little attention has been paid to cultivating demand relative to expanding supply. 160 pp. • 2008 • $30.50 pb • MG-640-WF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4184-5

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Arts and Culture in the Metropolis Strategies for Sustainability Kevin F. McCarthy, Elizabeth Heneghan Ondaatje, Jennifer L. Novak

The authors examine how cultural sectors are organized and supported in 11 major metropolitan regions, including the structure of the local arts ecology, support systems, and the larger socio-demographic, economic, and institutional contexts, and apply the resulting framework to identifying conditions that promote strong metropolitan support for the arts. 122 pp. • 2007 • $25.00 pb • MG-477-WPF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3890-6

Child Policy Assessing the Validity of the Qualistar Early Learning Quality Rating and Improvement System as a Tool for Improving Child-Care Quality Gail L. Zellman, Michal Perlman, Vi-Nhuan Le, Claude Messan Setodji

As a result of the generally low quality of child care in the United States and the increased emphasis on accountability in education policy, quality rating and improvement systems are proliferating in the child-care arena. This volume assesses the validity of Qualistar Early Learning’s system, one of the first systems designed to make childcare quality transparent and improve the quality of care. 128 pp. • Includes CD • 2008 • $32.50 pb • MG-650-QEL • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4495-2

Child-Care Quality Rating and Improvement Systems in Five Pioneer States Implementation Issues and Lessons Learned Gail L. Zellman, Michal Perlman

Child-care quality rating and improvement systems (QRISs) are designed to make child-care quality transparent to child-care parents, providers, and policymakers and to help providers improve their quality. This volume discusses the development and implementation of childcare QRISs in Oklahoma, Colorado, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, five states that were among the first to develop these systems. 92 pp. • 2008 • $x.00 pb • MG-795-AECF/SPF/UWA • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4551-5

www.rand.org

Child Policy • Civil Justice An Outcome Evaluation of the Spirituality for Kids Program Nicole Maestas and Sarah Gaillot

Spirituality for Kids (SFK), a nonreligious after-school program, seeks to build resilience in children by teaching them to access inner resources and build positive connections with others. The authors found that the program produced benefits that persisted over time. Interestingly, the authors found that the program improved study skills and reduced learning problems, despite the fact that it is not an academic intervention. 70 pp. • 2008 • $23.00 pb • TR-575-SFK • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4477-8

Adolescent Romantic Relationships as Precursors of Healthy Adult Marriages A Review of Theory, Research, and Programs Benjamin R. Karney, Megan K. Beckett, Rebecca L. Collins, Rebecca Shaw

Policymakers are interested in promoting healthy marriages in adulthood by providing services to strengthen the adolescent precursors of healthy marriage, especially within low-income populations. This report evaluates the current landscape of theory, research, and interventions addressing the role of adolescent romantic relationships in the development of healthy adult marriages. 176 pp. • 2007 • $28.00 pb • TR-488-ACF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4178-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Civil Justice In the Name of Entrepreneurship? The Logic and Effects of Special Regulatory Treatment for Small Business Susan M. Gates and Kristin J. Leuschner, editors

Concern that government regulations place a disproportionate burden on small businesses and entrepreneurs has often led to special regulatory treatment for small businesses. It is sometimes unclear, however, whether this special treatment is having the intended effect. This book sheds light on these issues through analysis of the regulatory and public policy environment with regard to small businesses, focusing on health insurance, workplace safety, corporate governance, and business organization. 368 pp. • 2007 • $38.50 pb • MG-663-EMKF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4204-0

The Victims of Terrorism An Assessment of Their Influence and Growing Role in Policy, Legislation, and the Private Sector Bruce Hoffman and Anna-Britt Kasupski

This report documents 9/11 victims’ groups—a powerful force in U.S. counterterrorist policy and legislation—and compares them to groups formed in response to other terrorist attacks.

Early Childhood Interventions

64 pp. • 2007 • $23.00 pb • OP-180-1-CTRMP • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4143-2

Proven Results, Future Promise

The Legal and Economic Implications of Electronic Discovery

Lynn A. Karoly, M. Rebecca Kilburn, Jill S. Cannon

This volume addresses the potential for various forms of early childhood intervention to improve outcomes for children and their families. The authors consider the potential consequences of withholding investment in additional resources for such children, the range of early intervention programs, the demonstrated benefits and features of successful programs, and the social returns associated with investing early in the lives of disadvantaged children.

Options for Future Research James N. Dertouzos, Nicholas M. Pace, Robert H. Anderson

Pretrial discovery—the exchange of relevant information between litigants—is central to the American civil legal process, but electronic discovery (e-discovery) raises new concerns. This paper reports on exploratory research to identify the most important legal and economic implications of e-discovery and develop a research agenda to improve future policy. 38 pp. • 2008 • $20.00 pb • OP-183-ICJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4422-8

200 pp. • 2005 • $24.00 pb • MG-341-PMC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3836-4

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Civil Justice • Education Investor and Industry Perspectives on Investment Advisers and Broker-Dealers

Education

Angela A. Hung, Noreen Clancy, Jeff Dominitz, Eric Talley, Claude Berrebi, Farrukh Suvankulov

Supporting Literacy Across the Sunshine State

Trends in the financial services market since the early 1990s have blurred the boundaries between brokers, dealers, and investment advisers. This volume examines current business practices of broker-dealers and investment advisers and whether investors understand differences between and relationships among them.

A Study of Florida Middle School Reading Coaches

228 pp. • 2008 • $48.00 pb • TR-556-USSEC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4403-7

Insurance Class Actions in the United States Nicholas M. Pace, Stephen J. Carroll, Ingo Vogelsang, Laura Zakaras

Class actions often make headlines and have aroused vocal policy debates. Still, little is know about the numbers, dynamics, or outcomes of the majority of class actions. This book presents the results of a R AND survey on state and federal insurance class actions and the interests of regulators in the issues litigated by the parties in these cases. 198 pp. • 2007 • $32.00 pb • MG-587-1-ICJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4131-9

Prebankruptcy Credit Counseling Noreen Clancy and Stephen J. Carroll

The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 gave the U.S. Trustee Program (USTP) new areas of responsibility and required bankruptcy filers to receive credit counseling during the 180 days before filing. At the USTP’s request, R AND provided an overview on what constitutes effective prebankruptcy credit counseling and recommended ways to measure its effectiveness. 36 pp. • 2007 • $20.00 pb • TR-509-EOUST • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4205-7

Asbestos Litigation Stephen J. Carroll, Deborah Hensler, Jennifer Gross, Elizabeth M. Sloss, Matthias Schonlau, Allan Abrahamse, J. Scott Ashwood

The authors report on the longest-running mass tort litigation in U.S. history, including what happened to the defendants in the asbestos cases and how the lawyers and judges managed the cases. 206 pp. • 2005 • $20.00 pb • MG-162-ICJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3078-8

Julie A. Marsh, Jennifer Sloan McCombs, J. R. Lockwood, Francisco Martorell, Daniel Gershwin, Scott Naftel, Vi-Nhuan Le, Molly Shea, Heather Barney, Al Crego

Many policymakers suggest that reading coaches—master teachers who offer ongoing on-site instructional support for teachers—can improve teachers’ practices and students’ literacy skills. R AND researchers evaluated the middle school reading coach program in Florida to assess its impact on teacher practice and student achievement. 272 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $35.00 pb • MG-762-CC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4509-6

Toward a K–20 Student Unit Record Data System for California Georges Vernez, Cathy Krop, Mirka Vuollo, Janet S. Hansen

To improve the progression of students through the educational system and to improve education quality, California needs a robust data system that can track an individual student’s progress from kindergarten to college and beyond. The authors document the state of the various student data systems available for California’s education segments and identify steps that could be taken toward building and maintaining a robust system for the state. 126 pp. • 2008 • $24.50 pb • MG-695-WFHF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4206-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Standards-Based Accountability Under No Child Left Behind Experiences of Teachers and Administrators in Three States Laura S. Hamilton, Brian M. Stecher, Julie A. Marsh, Jennifer Sloan McCombs, Abby Robyn, Jennifer Lin Russell, Scott Naftel, Heather Barney

This book sheds light on how standards-based accountability (SBA) policies have influenced attitudes and been translated into actions at the district, school, and classroom levels in three states, with a focus on mathematics and science. While SBA has led to an increased emphasis on student achievement, this singleminded emphasis on student proficiency on tests has some potentially negative consequences, such as narrowing curriculum and declining staff morale. 302 pp. • 2007 • $32.50 pb • MG-589-NSF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4149-4

www.rand.org

Education “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Education for a New Era Design and Implementation of K–12 Education Reform in Qatar Dominic J. Brewer, Catherine H. Augustine, Gail L. Zellman, Gery Ryan, Charles A. Goldman, Cathleen Stasz, Louay Constant

In 2001, the leaders of Qatar asked R AND to examine the nation’s K–12 education system (widely seen as rigid and resistant to reform), to recommend options for building a world-class system, and to oversee its implementation. Education for a New Era describes the initiative from its inception to the opening of the first generation of Independent schools in 2004, along with a brief update on developments after that date. 216 pp. • 2007 • $30.00 pb • MG-548-QATAR • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4007-7

Post-Secondary Education in Qatar Employer Demand, Student Choice, and Options for Policy Cathleen Stasz, Eric R. Eide, Francisco Martorell, with Louay Constant, Charles A. Goldman, Joy S. Moini, Vazha Nadareishvili, Hanine Salem

Qatar’s Supreme Education Council asked R AND to assess whether the current post-secondary education opportunities in Qatar are aligned with the nation’s social and economic goals and to help articulate priorities for developing post-secondary educational opportunities, either in Qatar or through financed study abroad. This volume describes the project and offers R AND’s recommendations, which included establishing a governmentsponsored community college, expanding Education City’s offerings or restructuring Qatar University programs, and starting a financial-aid program for adults. 158 pp. • 2007 • $23.00 pb • MG-644-QATAR • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4173-9

Aligning Post-Secondary Educational Choices to Societal Needs A New Scholarship System for Qatar Catherine H. Augustine, Cathy Krop

This study summarizes the results of an evaluation of Qatar’s scholarship system and describes proposed reforms drawn from comparative assessments of countries with similar characteristics and interviews with a wide-ranging group of stakeholders. Since the time of the study, Qatar’s Supreme Education Council has adopted and adapted most of the report’s recommendations. 94 pp. • 2008 • $24.50 pb • TR-478-QATAR • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4420-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Reforming Teacher Education Something Old, Something New Sheila Nataraj Kirby, Jennifer Sloan McCombs, Heather Barney, Scott Naftel

“The text provides a succinct overview of progress made by eight universities in implementing TNE [Teachers for a New Era] design principles…Readers will enjoy honest reporting and the hope that the text gives for the improvement of teaching and learning. Summing Up: Recommended. Graduate students through practitioners.” —Choice 196 pp. • 2006 • $25.00 pb • MG-506-EDU • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3982-8

How Schools Can Help Students Recover from Traumatic Experiences A Tool Kit for Supporting Long-Term Recovery Lisa H. Jaycox, Lindsey K. Morse, Terri Tanielian, Bradley D. Stein

Design of the Qatar National Research Fund An Overview of the Study Approach and Key Recommendations Victoria A. Greenfield, Debra Knopman, Eric Talley, Gabrielle Bloom, Edward Balkovich, D. J. Peterson, James T. Bartis, Stephen Rattien, Richard Rettig, Mark Y.D. Wang, Michael Mattock, Jihane Najjar, Martin C. Libicki

This report documents the design and business and implementation plans that the R AND-Qatar Policy Institute recommended for the Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF), intended to be the leading institution in Qatar dedicated to funding research in the Qatari interest. 88 pp. • 2008 • $22.00 pb • TR-209-QF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4215-6

This tool kit describes how trauma exposure impacts students’ performance and behavior, provides a compendium of programs for schools to support the long-term recovery of traumatized students, and compares these programs with one another. 74 pp. • 2006 • $23.00 pb • TR-413-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4037-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Focus on the Wonder Years Challenges Facing the American Middle School Jaana Juvonen, Vi-Nhuan Le, Tessa Kaganoff, Catherine Augustine, Louay Constant 178 pp. • 2004 • $27.50 pb • MG-139-EDU • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3390-1

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Education • Energy & Environment “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Rhetoric Versus Reality What We Know and What We Need to Know About Vouchers and Charter Schools

Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use Michael Toman, James Griffin, Robert J. Lempert

314 pp. • 2001, rev. ed. 2007 • $34.00 pb • MR-1118-1-EDU •

The authors assess the potential impact on U.S. consumer energy expenditures and carbon dioxide emissions if 25 percent of U.S. electric power and motor fuels were to come from renewable resources by 2025. They conclude that technical advances biomass energy and wind power generation should be top priorities for increasing affordable supplies of renewable energy.

ISBN: 978-0-8330-2765-8

116 pp. • 2008 • $34.50 pb • TR-384-1-EFC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4497-6

Mathematical Proficiency for All Students

Estimating the Value of Water-Use Efficiency in the Intermountain West

Brian P. Gill, P. Michael Timpane, Karen E. Ross, Dominic J. Brewer, Kevin Booker

This review of the theoretical foundations for vouchers and charter schools and the empirical evidence of their effectiveness has been updated with new data.

Toward a Strategic Research and Development Program in Mathematics Education RAND Mathematics Study Panel, Deborah Loewenberg Ball, Chair 122 pp. • 2003 • $20.00 pb • MR-1643-OERI • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3331-4

Reading for Understanding Toward an R&D Program in Reading Comprehension RAND Reading Study Group, Catherine Snow, Chair 184 pp. • 2002 • $20.00 pb • MR-1465-OERI • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3105-1

Energy & Environment Green Warriors Army Environmental Considerations for Contingency Operations from Planning Through Post-Conflict David E. Mosher, Beth E. Lachman, Michael D. Greenberg, Tiffany Nichols, Brian Rosen, Henry H. Willis

Recent experiences in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans have highlighted the importance of environmental considerations—from protecting the health of soldiers, to disposing of hazardous waste, to building water supply systems. The Army has become increasingly involved with environmental issues in every contingency operation and must be better prepared to deal with them. This study assesses whether existing policy, doctrine, and guidance adequately address environmental activities in post-conflict military operations and reconstruction. 252 pp. • 2008 • $32.50 pb • MG-632-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4318-4

David G. Groves, James Griffin, Sara Hajiamiri

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of water-efficiency programs can be difficult, because not all the benefits are easily quantified. This study presents an economic framework for estimating the avoided costs and environmental benefits of increasing water-use efficiency. 88 pp. • 2008 • $33.00 pb • TR-504-HF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4397-9

Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water-Resource Managers A Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency David G. Groves, Debra Knopman, Robert J. Lempert, Sandra H. Berry, Lynne Wainfan

Water-resource managers face a new uncertainty—longterm climate change, which in coming years may significantly affect the availability of supply and patterns of water demand. This study describes ways in which R AND researchers are working with water agencies in California to help them better understand how climate change might affect their systems and what actions, if any, they need to take to address this challenge. 100 pp. • 2007 • $20.00 pb • TR-505-NSF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4398-6

The Thin Green Line An Assessment of DoD’s Readiness and Environmental Protection Initiative to Buffer Installation Encroachment Beth E. Lachman, Anny Wong, Susan A. Resetar

The Readiness and Environmental Protection Initiative (REPI) helps military installations implement land-use partnering projects to relieve pressures of diminishing open space near their borders, which can destroy or displace native plant and animal species. The authors assess and make recommendations for REPI projects. 386 pp. • color charts • 2007 • $44.00 pb • MG-612-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4172-2

www.rand.org

Energy & Environment • Gulf Coast Policy “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Oil Shale Development in the United States Prospects and Policy Issues James T. Bartis, Tom LaTourrette, Lloyd Dixon, D. J. Peterson, Gary Cecchine

The authors describe U.S. oil shale resources (estimated at more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia); the suitability, cost, and performance of technologies for developing these resources; and the key energy, environmental, land-use, and socioeconomic policy issues that must be addressed by government decisionmakers before oil shale development ensues. 88 pp. • 2005 • $20.00 pb • MG-414-NETL • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3848-7

Gulf Coast Policy The RAND Gulf States Policy Institute is a collaboration among the RAND Corporation and seven Gulf states universities. RAND Gulf States’ mission is to improve outcomes of policy- and decisionmaking in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. RAND Gulf States is assisting in long-term recovery efforts by providing evidencebased policy guidance to facilitate and speed regional recovery and growth, re-establish services, and encourage a wise investment in infrastructure. For more information and the latest research, please visit www.rand.org/rgspi.

An Economic Development Architecture for New Orleans Kevin F. McCarthy

In response to the situation in New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, this report provides recommendations regarding effective organizational and strategic approaches to revitalizing the city’s economy. Recommendations consider the organizational structure of a New Orleans economic development program and how it should strategically focus its efforts. Planning for the successful future economic development in the region depends on avoiding the mistakes of past efforts, so consideration is also given to historical trends and development missteps.

Post-Katrina Recovery of the Housing Market Along the Mississippi Gulf Coast Kevin F. McCarthy and Mark Hanson

This R AND Gulf States Policy Institute report describes the pre-Hurricane Katrina housing markets in Mississippi’s three coastal counties, the damage they sustained, their current status, and what might inhibit recovery. The authors find that three issues will be critical to short-term recovery: construction-sector capacity; the availability of funds to finance recovery; and an adequate supply of housing, especially affordable housing, for those whom the storm displaced from their residences. 102 pp. • 2008 • $25.00 pb • TR-511-OA/MAR/NAR • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4293-4

Rebuilding Housing Along the Mississippi Coast Ideas for Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Affordable Housing Mark A. Bernstein, Julie Kim, Paul Sorensen, Mark Hanson, Adrian Overton, Scott Hiromoto

In October 2005, R AND researchers traveled to Mississippi to assist the Governor’s Commission on Recovery, Rebuilding, and Renewal. This paper looks at best practices from previous natural disaster experiences, the damage to affordable housing in Mississippi, the needs of the population during rebuilding, the scale of rebuilding, and the place of affordable housing. 92 pp. • 2006 • $20.00 pb • OP-162-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3949-1

Hurricane Katrina Lessons for Army Planning and Operations Lynn E. Davis, Jill Rough, Gary Cecchine, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, Laurinda L. Zeman

This book examines problems arose in the military response to Hurricane Katrina that contributed to delays in accomplishing evacuations and relief operations across the storm-ravaged areas of Louisiana and Mississippi, particularly New Orleans. The authors recommend steps to improve future military disaster-response efforts, including changes to the National Guard’s mission, organization, and deployment procedures, as well as a new command and control structure for major emergencies. 106 pp. • 2007 • $23.00 pb • MG-603-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4167-8

68 pp. • 2008 • $23.00 pb • TR-547-HI • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4324-5

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Health & Health Care • International Affairs Health & Health Care Hospital-Based Integrative Medicine A Case Study of the Barriers and Factors Facilitating the Creation of a Center Ian D. Coulter, Marcia A. Ellison, Lara Hilton, Hilary J. Rhodes, Gery Ryan

Current integrative medicine practices in hospital settings involve some form of partnership between complementary and alternative medicine and biomedicine. The authors examined the establishment, and ultimately the closure, of a single hospital-based Integrative Medicine Center, providing insights into the promises and pitfalls of integrative medicine in a hospital setting.

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

The Global Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious Diseases Reconciling U.S. National Security and Public Health Policy Jennifer Brower and Peter Chalk

“Brower and Chalk’s book is a powerful and useful argument for the urgent need to integrate and streamline public health and national security strategies.” —Emerging Infectious Diseases 166 pp. • 2003 • $20.00 pb • MR-1602-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3293-5

192 pp. • 2008 • $31.00 • MG-591-NCCAM • ISBN: 978-0-08330-4559-1

A Comparison of the Health Systems in China and India Sai Ma, Neeraj Sood

The world’s two most populous countries, China and India, are undergoing dramatic demographic, societal, and economic transformations. The health status of residents of China and India, however, still lags behind relative to other populations, and the health gains in each country have been uneven across subpopulations. This paper compares the health systems of China and India to determine which approaches to improving health in these two countries do and do not work. 58 pp. • 2008 • $23.50 pb • OP-212-CAPP • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4483-9

The Economic Burden of Providing Health Insurance How Much Worse Off Are Small Firms? Christine Eibner

More than 60 percent of nonelderly Americans receive health insurance coverage through employers, either as policyholders or as dependents. This report examines the economic burden due to rising health care costs faced by small and large businesses, as well as the quality of health insurance plans that small and large firms offer. 80 pp. • 2008 • $23.00 pb • TR-559-EMKF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4411-2

Infectious Disease and National Security Strategic Information Needs Gary Cecchine and Melinda Moore

The pace of global travel, migration, and commerce has increased dramatically in recent decades, elevating the risk of a global infectious disease outbreak. This volume examines infectious disease within the context of national security and assesses the need for and adequacy of information that will enable U.S. policymakers to prevent and respond to such threats.

International Affairs “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Talking to the Enemy Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia Dalia Dassa Kaye

“Kaye has written a thorough, thoughtful analysis of track two diplomacy in the two most difficult areas to practice this craft: South Asia and the Middle East. She includes descriptions and comments on a number of such efforts in both regions, which will be invaluable to both scholar and professional negotiators. Her discussion of the roles for track two talks—socializing elites, making others’ ideas one’s own, and turning ideas into policies—would be useful in any negotiation course…. Her suggestion that each region may learn from the tribulation of the other is arguably thoughtful. Her suggestions for improvement—expand the types of participants, create institutional support and mentors, and localize the dialogues—deserve further study. Recommended.” —Choice

“For those interested in the question of why countries in the Mideast and South Asia just can’t seem to get along, this book not only discusses the problem but also offers a solution…. Policymakers, regional specialists, and academics are the primary targets of this work though it does provide some useful insights for military officers and others…. This book provides some valuable conceptual underpinnings as well as specific case studies that might prove useful to many…. Though it readily acknowledges the need for much more work, it certainly helps answer some keep questions about conflict resolutionmentors, and localize the dialogues—deserve further study. Recommended.” —Air Power History 166 pp. • 2007 • $25.00 pb • MG-592-NSRD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4191-3

126 pp. • 2006 • $25.00 pb • TR-405-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3989-7

www.rand.org

International Running Affairs Header • Nation-Building “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Ungoverned Territories Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks Angel Rabasa, Steven Boraz, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Theodore W. Karasik, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Kevin A. O’Brien, John E. Peters

“[This] study of failed or failing states and ungoverned areas that serve as incubation sites for any number of terrorist organizations…stands alone as one of the few works in years to not only identify the myriad of challenges arising from these areas, but for actually presenting strategies based on a solid analytical framework capable of countering such threats. The book is a strong contender for the libraries of any reader concerned with America’s role in the war on international terrorism.” —Parameters, the U.S. Army War College quarterly 396 pp. • index • 2007 • $44.00 pb • MG-561-PAF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4152-4

Integrating Instruments of Power and Influence Robert E. Hunter

This project brought together senior practitioners from a wide variety of institutions and disciplines (including U.S., allied, coalition, and United Nations military leaders, U.S. and European diplomats, and representatives of private-sector and nongovernmental organizations) to determine best practices for integrating civilian and military intervention activities, drawing on operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan.. 108 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $35.00 pb • CF-251-NDF/KAF/RF/SRF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4506-5

Reporters on the Battlefield The Embedded Press System in Historical Context Christopher Paul and James J. Kim

“[The authors] assess the very different goals of reporters and the military as one of the sources of the tension between the two…. Though brief, this is a highly useful synthesis of a relationship that is widely debated but little understood. Essential. All collections; all levels.” —Choice 174 pp. • 2004 • $20.00 pb • MG-200-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3654-4

Nation-Building Women and Nation-Building Cheryl Benard, Seth G. Jones, Olga Oliker, Cathryn Quantic Thurston, Brooke K. Stearns, Kristen Cordell

This book tackles the exceedingly complex task of assessing the multilayered development of women’s diverse roles in the post-conflict context. The authors examine the role of women in the recent reconstruction activities in Afghanistan, while evaluating the effect of societal circumstances and nationbuilding processes on the status of female populations in post-conflict regions. 225 pp. • $31.50 pb • 2008 • MG-579-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4311-5

Stabilization and Reconstruction Staffing Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities

Breaking the Failed-State Cycle Marla C. Haims, David C. Gompert, Gregory F. Treverton, Brooke K. Stearns

Failed states present a variety of dangers and typically suffer from cycles of violence, economic breakdown, and unfit government, rendering them unable to relieve the suffering of their people, much less empower them. This paper aims to improve the understanding and treatment of failed states by focusing on critical challenges at the intersections between security, economics, and politics and on the guiding goal of empowering local populations. 56 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $20.00 pb • OP-204-HLTH/NDRI/A/AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4466-2

Terrence K. Kelly, Ellen E. Tunstall, Thomas S. Szayna, Deanna Weber Prine

The rationale for U.S. engagement in interventions and state-building efforts received a new urgency after the 9/11 attacks. Recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and in Iraq, however, have once again shown that engaging in stability and reconstruction operations is a difficult and lengthy process that requires significant resources. The authors present the results of research on the U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for stability and reconstruction operations undertaken in other countries under U.S. leadership or with the participation of the United States. 130 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $29.00 pb • MG-580-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4137-1

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Nation-Building

The RAND Series on Nation-Building Europe’s Role in Nation-Building From the Balkans to the Congo James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, Christopher S. Chivvis, Andrew Radin, F. Stephen Larrabee, Nora Bensahel, Brooke K. Stearns, Benjamin W. Goldsmith

The RAND History of Nation-Building “If there is a maestro of nation building, [James Dobbins] is it.” —National Journal

Contains the two volumes listed below as an attractive, discounted boxed set.

Peace is the most essential product of nation-building. Without peace, neither economic growth nor democratization is possible. The authors investigate the use of armed force as part of broader nation-building efforts led by European powers and its success at achieving the objective of transforming a society emerging from conflict into one at peace with itself and its neighbors. They then evaluate Europe’s performance against the U.S. and United Nations records in past nation-building operations.

318 pp. and 280 pp. • 2005 • $63.00 pb • MG-304/1-RC •

342 pp. • 2008 • $35.00 pb • MG-722-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4138-8

“There is much to learn from these books…. Their methodical structure, rigorous analysis, presentation of data and rational conclusions are compelling and highly readable.”

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, Beth Cole DeGrasse

ISBN: 978-0-8330-3739-8

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

The UN’s Role in Nation-Building From the Congo to Iraq James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, Andrew Rathmell, Brett Steele, Richard Teltschik, Anga Timilsina

—The UN Chronicle

“Highly recommended.” —Choice 318 pp. • 2005 • $35.00 pb • MG-304-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3589-9

“The United States and the United Nations have, with increasing frequency, embarked on military interventions and nation-building operations that have become larger, longer, and more ambitious. Dobbins and his associates at RAND have led the way in reflecting on these experiences in an effort to find lessons for the future.” —Foreign Affairs

“This new book is a remarkable success. You have to read [it] carefully although the text is clearly written and far from excessively technical. The reason is that many nation building missions we deem damn near impossible, in most countries, RAND considers possible. But Dobbins points out such nation building exercises are difficult to achieve, can be achieved only after hostilities have ceased, are much more costly than you would expect, and take much longer than expected as well.” —The Communitarian Network 328 pp. • 2007 • $35.00 pb • MG-557-SRF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3988-0

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

America’s Role in Nation-Building From Germany to Iraq James Dobbins, John G. McGinn, Keith Crane, Seth G. Jones, Rollie Lal, Andrew Rathmell, Rachel Swanger, Anga Timilsina

“The policy recommendations contained in this study should be taken to heart and then further researched and refined for future use…. Its main messages are utterly in accord with the broader experiences of the peace-building community.” —International Affairs

“When [James Dobbins] offers a critique of the Bush administration’s nation-building effort in Iraq, it is worth paying attention.y.” —New York Times 280 pp. • 2003 • $35.00 pb • MR-1753-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3460-1

www.rand.org

Nation-Building Running Header • Middle East Networked Forces in Stability Operations 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq Daniel Gonzales, John Hollywood, Jerry M. Sollinger, James McFadden, John DeJarnette, Sarah Harting, Donald Temple

The authors examine whether advanced networking capabilities translate into greater mission effectiveness in stability operations by comparing three units that operated in the same area in Iraq’s northern provinces between 2003 and 2005. Although networking technologies confer obvious benefits, the authors conclude that command leadership, training, and the processes employed in stability operations are just as important for improving mission effectiveness in stability operations. 220 pp. • color charts • 2007 • $38.50 pb • MG-593-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4303-0

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Securing Health Lessons from Nation-Building Missions Seth G. Jones, Lee H. Hilborne, C. Ross Anthony, Lois M. Davis, Federico Girosi, Cheryl Benard, Rachel M. Swanger, Anita Datar Garten, Anga Timilsina

This book examines health reconstruction efforts in eight cases to determine best health practices during nation-building operations and identify lessons for future operations. 388 pp. • 2006 • $30.00 pb • MG-321-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3729-9

Middle East Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner F. Stephen Larrabee

Turkey has long been an important U.S. ally, but, especially with the end of the Cold War, the relationship has been changing. The author examines the dynamics of the relationships between the U.S., Turkey, and the European Union and concludes that the tension between Turkey’s Western identity and Middle Eastern orientation is likely to grow even more. 48 pp. • 2008 • $21.00 pb • MG-694-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4302-3

Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead Findings from an International Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007 Cheryl Benard, Ole Kvaerno, Peter Dahl Thruelsen, Kristen Cordell

This volume compiles papers presented at an international conference on the problems that Afghanistan faces in the wake of the U.S.-led attack on al Qaeda and the Taliban; the obstacles to nation-building in the country; and possible solutions to these issues. 106 pp. • 2008 • $26.00 pb • CF-238-IMEY/CMEPP • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4415-0

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Building Moderate Muslim Networks Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Lowell H. Schwartz, Peter Sickle

“Moderate Muslims do exist. But, of course, they constitute a very small movement when compared to the Islamist onslaught. This means that the American government and other powerful institutions should give priority to locating, meeting with, funding, forwarding, empowering, and celebrating those brave Muslims who, at personal risk, stand up and confront the totalitarians…. [This book’s] meaty contents, clear analysis, and bold recommendations usefully move the debate forward, offering precisely the in-depth strategizing that Westerners urgently need.” —Daniel Pipes, Middle East Forum 216 pp. • 2007 • $30.00 pb • MG-574-SRF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4122-7

Selected as “Outstanding” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

The Muslim World After 9/11 Angel M. Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair, Theodore Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian Lesser, David Thaler

“The strengths of this work are its comprehensiveness, its accuracy, its relevance to existing policy concerns, and its organization of a welter of data (with well-conceived charts bringing needed clarity to complexities such as the diverse Muslim groups in Indonesia).” —Foreign Affairs

“[This] excellent overview and digest of most Islamic movements with special attention to extremist ones…. [is] an extremely useful handbook for scholars, journalists, and government officials…. Highly recommended. Upper-division undergraduates and above.” —Choice 564 pp. • 2004 • $40.00 pb • MG-246-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3534-9

toll free 877.584.8642

Middle East Running • Europe/NATO Header • Asia Civil Democratic Islam

NATO’s Air War for Kosovo

Partners, Resources, and Strategies

A Strategic and Operational Assessment

Cheryl Benard

The author compares and contrasts the subgroups within Islam, discusses issues that U.S. policymakers should consider regarding supporting specific Muslim groups, and makes recommendations for the future. 88 pp. • 2004 • $20.00 pb • MR-1716-CMEPP • ISBN: 0-8330-3438-3

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Building a Successful Palestinian State The RAND Palestinian State Study Team “If [Palestinian] statehood is realized, the RAND Palestinian State Study Team have given much thought as to how to make it work…. The result is a refreshingly upbeat ‘how to’ manual that identifies four fundamental challenges for success: security, for Palestinians, as well as Israelis and other neighbors; governance, predicated on regime legitimacy; economic development, leading to eventual selfreliance; and the broad well-being of the Palestinian people, measured according to several indices, among them food security, health and education.” —Middle East Journal 452 pp. • 2005 • $35.00 pb • MG-146-1-DCR • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3532-5

For more information on RAND’s Palestinian State project, please visit www.rand.org/palestine.

Europe/NATO Sustaining Key Skills in the UK Naval Industry Hans Pung, Laurence Smallman, Mark V. Arena, James G. Kallimani, Gordon T. Lee, Samir Puri, John F. Schank

Building on prior R AND research, this volume explores in greater detail the need for and retention of specific technical skills in the UK’s naval industrial base, particularly those of designers and engineers at various stages of surface ship and submarine acquisition and support. The authors investigate the relationship between the demand created by the UK’s surface ship and submarine acquisition program and the technical workforce needed to design, build, and support those war vessels. 162 pp. • 2008 • $27.00 pb • MG-725-MOD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4410-5

Russia’s Chechen Wars, 1994–2000 Lessons from Urban Combat Olga Oliker 121 pp. • 2001 • $20.00 pb • MR-1289-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-2998-0

www.rand.org

Benjamin S. Lambeth

“Combines concise history, sound strategic analysis, military facts and figures, and a detailed assessment of how NATO’s air war was conducted and what it should tell us about future conflict.” —Survival

“As the research on NATO’s use of force in Kosovo grows, Lambeth provides a useful contribution to the literature…. Advanced undergraduates to specialists will benefit from this impressively researched study.” —Choice 312 pp. • 2001 • $35.00 pb • MR-1365-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3050-4

Asia Modernizing the North Korean System Objectives, Method, and Application Charles Wolf, Jr., and Norman D. Levin

In seeking a modernized North Korea, the focus should be on stimulating a gradual modernization of the North Korean system rather than removing the regime. This volume describes a collaborative effort—by six institutions in five countries with key interests in North Korea’s future— to determine ways in which the North Korean system could move toward modernization over the medium to long term. 124 pp. • 2008 • $24.50 pb • MG-710-SRF/MCF/RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4406-8

Brain Korea 21 Phase II A New Evaluation Model Somi Seong, Steven W. Popper, Charles A. Goldman, David K. Evans, with Clifford A. Grammich

In the late 1990s, the Korea Ministry of Education and Human Resources, in an effort to make Korean research universities globally competitive and to produce more high-quality researchers, launched the Brain Korea 21 program (BK21). The authors develop methods to evaluate how well BK21 is fulfilling its goals, and make suggestions for the future management of the program. (This book is also available in a Korean-language version.) 276 pp. • 2008 • $38.50 pb • MG-711-KRF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4321-4 Korean-language version: 306 pp. • 2008 • $40.00 pb • MG-711/1-KRF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4409-9

AsiaRunning • National Header Security “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

National Security

Chinese Economic Coercion Against Taiwan

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

A Tricky Weapon to Use

Enlisting Madison Avenue

Murray Scot Tanner

This book evaluates Taiwan’s potential economic vulnerability to efforts by the Chinese to cut off or disrupt key aspects of the cross-strait relationship, while analyzing the challenges that China has faced in its efforts to convert economic influence into effective political leverage. 178 pp. • 2007 • $25.00 pb • MG-507-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3969-9

Entering the Dragon’s Lair Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael S. Chase, Derek Eaton, Kevin L. Pollpeter

The Marketing Approach to Earning Popular Support in Theaters of Operation Todd C. Helmus, Christopher Paul, Russell W. Glenn

“The authors suggest that the military could create more support for its operations, and thereby achieve greater success in conflicts like those in Iraq and Afghanistan, if it updated its ‘brand’ identity using models such as Apple, Lexus, and Starbucks…. The report also makes a case for re-branding the military, advertising it more as an organization that’s doing good in the world, through relief efforts like those in post-tsunami Southeast Asia or in post-earthquake Pakistan.” —The Atlantic

The authors review Chinese military-doctrinal publications to see what strategies China might employ in the event of a conflict with the United States to interfere with our ability to deploy or operate military forces overseas.

240 pp. • 2007 • $30.00 pb • MG-607-JFCOM • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4156-2

154 pp. • 2007 • $27.50 pb • MG-524-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3995-8

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry

Learning Large Lessons

Evan S. Medeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane, James C. Mulvenon

This book presents an alternative approach to studying China’s defense industry: Instead of focusing on China’s weaknesses and limitations, the authors highlight the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China’s defense-industrial complex. 330 pp. • 2005 • $30.00 pb • MG-334-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3794-7

Modernizing China’s Military Opportunities and Constraints Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, William Overholt

This volume projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and the military in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China’s defense industries, and compares likely future Chinese expenditures on defense with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. 296 pp. • 2005 • $30.00 pb • MG-260-1-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3698-8

Selected for the Air Force Chief of Staff Reading List

The Evolving Roles of Ground Power and Air Power in the Post–Cold War Era David E. Johnson

“Insofar as evidence and balanced analysis can be brought to bear on the ever-divisive issue of modern airpower versus ‘boots on the ground’, Learning Large Lessons is a gem. It deserves to be read—thoughtfully—by Airmen, Sailors, Soldiers, and Marines alike..” —Joint Force Quarterly

“What makes [this] book especially provocative is how the author structures his analysis of each of the five post–Cold War conflicts. Johnson compares the differences in perceived ‘lessons learned’ between the air and ground communities. In each case, the communities drew self-serving lessons based on their service cultures…. Johnson also offers a more balanced and integrated assessment of the lessons learned for each conflict…. His discussion of these concepts is lucid, instructive, exemplified by his cases, and another reason his text will be useful in professional military education.” —Strategic Studies Quarterly 264 pp. • index • 2007 • $28.00 pb • MG-405-1-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3876-0

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National Running Security Header Improving the Cost Estimation of Space Systems Past Lessons and Future Recommendations Obaid Younossi, Mark A. Lorell, Kevin Brancato, Cynthia R. Cook, Mel Eisman, Bernard Fox, John C. Graser, Yool Kim, Robert S. Leonard, Shari Lawrence Pfleeger, Jerry M. Sollinger

Why have the costs of acquiring space systems been so high? The authors examined the sources of cost growth of Air Force space systems and undertook an extensive study of two space systems—the Space Based Infrared System–High (SBIRS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The authors make recommendations and summarize the cost-estimating best practices of several other government organizations. 240 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $40.00 pb • MG-690-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4460-0

Small Ships in Theater Security Cooperation Robert W. Button, Irv Blickstein, Laurence Smallman, David Newton, Michele A. Poole, Michael Nixon

To accomplish missions related to counterterrorism, the U.S. Navy must engage in theater security cooperation— wherein the United States extends influence, develops access, and promotes competence among potential coalition partners—with foreign militaries. The authors evaluate roles for small ships in theater security cooperation, present a concept of operations for employing such ships, describe necessary ship and crew characteristics, and survey classes of suitable vessels.

Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs Joseph G. Bolten, Robert S. Leonard, Mark V. Arena, Obaid Younossi, Jerry M. Sollinger

Quantifying cost growth in new weapon systems is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, the authors examined 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs and suggest ways to improve cost management. 116 pp. • 2008 • $24.00 pb • MG-670-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4289-7

Combat Pair The Evolution of Air Force-Navy Integration in Strike Warfare Benjamin S. Lambeth

The author documents the exceptional cross-service harmony that the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy have steadily developed in their conduct of integrated strike operations since the first Persian Gulf War in 1991. This close harmony contrasts sharply with the situation that prevailed throughout most of the Cold War, when the two services maintained separate and unique operating mindsets and lacked any significant interoperability features. 128 pp. • 2007 • $22.00 pb • MG-655-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4209-5

What the Army Needs to Know to Align Its Operational and Institutional Activities Frank Camm, Cynthia R. Cook, Ralph Masi, Anny Wong

Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options

This book describes a way for Army leadership to negotiate and establish performance goals for the institutional activities—the “generating force” that fills and sustains the Army’s combat units—that give the Army effective control over the alignment of its operational and institutional elements while preserving flexibility and initiative.

Paul K. Davis, Russell D. Shaver, Justin Beck

320 pp. • 2007 • $35.00 pb • MG-530-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4000-8

72 pp. • color charts • 2008 • $21.50 pb • MG-698-NAVY • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4400-6

This volume presents and illustrates in some detail an analytical framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews and describes new enabling tools to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military services. 202 pp. • color

charts • 2008 • $32.00 pb • MG-662-OSD •

ISBN: 978-0-8330-4214-9

Preparing the Army for Stability Operations Doctrinal and Interagency Issues Thomas S. Szayna, Derek Eaton, Amy Richardson

Much activity is being aimed at revising the approach to planning and implementing stabilization, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations, aimed at ensuring a common U.S. strategy rather than a collection of individual departmental and agency efforts and on involving all available government assets in the effort. The authors find that some elements essential to the success of the process are not yet in place. 276 pp. • 2007 • $31.50 pb • MG-646-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4190-6

www.rand.org

National Running Security Header Misfortunes of War Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime Eric V. Larson and Bogdan Savych

“The authors address how the U.S. press and public react to civilian deaths during war, arguing that the public is more realistic about casualties during war than conventional wisdom may suggest. Larson and Savych suggest that what matters most for public support of military actions is whether the public and press believe that the military is doing all it can to minimize civilian casualties…. Recommended.” —Choice

“This is an important study, not least because it is so firmly grounded empirically…. One of the most important conclusions is that, for the military, getting the story right is more important than getting it out quickly.” —Survival 298 pp. • 2006 • $30.00 pb • MG-441-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3897-5

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Striking First Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy Karl P. Mueller, Jasen J. Castillo, Forrest E. Morgan, Negeen Pegahi, Brian Rosen

“Striking First analyzes preventive and preemptive attacks, which the authors combine under the term anticipatory attack, in US national security policy. The authors offer much cogent analysis on the causes, consequences, and future of preventive and preemptive military action. Scholars and, to a greater degree, policymakers, will benefit from a careful reading of this book.” —Journal of Strategic Studies

“Preventive attacks on the sweeping scale and with the oversized ambitions of the Iraq war will not soon be undertaken again, at least not by the United States. But preventive and preemptive military action, or what the authors of this useful book term ‘anticipatory attack,’ remain important policy instruments…. For concerned citizens who want to know more about the logic and challenges of preventive attack, this is a good place to start.”

How Deployments Affect Service Members James Hosek, Jennifer Kavanagh, Laura Miller

The one-third cut in active-duty manpower at the end of the Cold War, combined with a shift in today’s security environment, has resulted in the need for longer and repeated deployments. Drawing on economics, sociology, and psychology, reviews of published work, and results from focus groups and surveys, the authors present a model of deployment and retention. They use the findings to suggest ways to improve quality of life for deployed and nondeployed personnel and their families. 150 pp. • 2006 • $24.00 pb • MG-432-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3868-5

Selected for the Air Force Chief of Staff Reading List “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Air Power Against Terror America’s Conduct of Operation Enduring Freedom Benjamin S. Lambeth

“Required reading for any serious student of modern military operations.” —Armed Forces Journal

“[This book] is not merely a must-read for people interested in the full history of ENDURING FREEDOM; it is an absolutely essential document for anyone who wants to understand the potential of airpower in modern warfare and real-world commandand-control issues. Unsurprisingly, the chief of staff recently added it to the Air Force reading list; it is almost inconceivable that any Airman would not want it on his or her personal bookshelf.” —Air and Space Power Journal 456 pp. • 2005 • $35.00 pb • MG-166-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3724-4

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking Stuart Johnson, Martin Libicki, Gregory F. Treverton, editors

“A must-read for defense planners, policymakers, and those interested in futures assessment and strategic planning.” —Parameters, the U.S. Army War College quarterly 412 pp. • index • 2003 • $30.00 pb • MR-1576-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3289-8

—Political Science Quarterly 344 pp. • 2006 • $30.00 pb • MG-403-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3881-4

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National Security Running • Counterinsurgency Header Space Weapons, Earth Wars

Understanding Proto-Insurgencies

Bob Preston, Dana J. Johnson, Sean J. A. Edwards, Michael D. Miller, Calvin Shipbaugh

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 3

“Recommended to those wishing to be informed about space weapons. Whether you are for or against space weapons, this book provides the material upon which to base your arguments.” —Physics and Society

Daniel Byman

This study discusses ways to anticipate the possibility of an insurgency developing before it materializes, provide behind-the-scenes training and advisory programs for partner nations, and help inhibit outside support for emerging insurgencies.

228 pp. • 2002 • $25.00 pb • MR-1209-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-2937-9

74 pp. • 2007 • $23.00 pb • OP-178-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4136-4

Strategic Appraisal Zalmay Khalilzad and John P. White, editors

Money in the Bank—Lessons Learned from Past Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations

Foreword by Andrew W. Marshall

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 4

The Changing Role of Information in Warfare

“A useful review of the dangers and opportunities that information technology presents to U.S. military forces.” —Naval War College Review 475 pp. • 1999 • $25.00 pb • MR-1016-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-2663-7

Counterinsurgency Heads We Win—The Cognitive Side of Counterinsurgency (COIN) RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 1 David C. Gompert

This volume discusses ways to enable U.S. forces to “fight smarter,” going beyond information technology and encompassing comprehension, reasoning, and decisionmaking, the components that are most effective against an enemy that is quick to adapt, transform, and regenerate. 80 pp. • color charts • 2007 • $24.00 pb • OP-168-OSD •

Angel Rabasa, Lesley Anne Warner, Peter Chalk, Ivan Khilko, Paraag Shukla

Six historic COIN operations from the 19th and 20th centuries—in the Philippines, Algeria, Vietnam, El Salvador, Jammu and Kashmir, and Colombia—are examined to determine which tactics, techniques, and procedures led to success and which to failure. 102 pp. • 2007 • $28.00 pb • OP-185-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4159-3

The Malay-Muslim Insurgency in Southern Thailand—Understanding the Conflict’s Evolving Dynamic RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 5 Peter Chalk

Current unrest in the Malay-Muslim provinces of southern Thailand has captured growing national, regional, and international attention. This paper assesses the current situation and its probable direction.

ISBN: 978-0-8330-4021-3

38 pp. • 2008 • $20.00 pb • OP-198-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4468-6

Subversion and Insurgency

Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence—The U.S. Military and Counterinsurgency Doctrine, 1960–1970 and 2003–2006

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 2 William Rosenau

The author presents a set of case studies to explore the elements of subversion—a critical part of the repertoire of many insurgent groups—including ideas for combating subversive activities in the context of the “long war” against violent Islamist extremism. 32 pp. • 2007 • $20.00 pb • OP-172-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4123-4

RAND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 6 Austin Long

The author posits that ingrained organizational concepts and beliefs have a much greater influence on operations than written doctrine, and that mental and material preparation for large-scale operations and overwhelming firepower has made the U.S. military poorly suited to counterinsurgency. Altering these beliefs will require more than just new doctrine and some additional professional education: The services must reorient themselves mentally as well as physically. 46 pp. • 2008 • $21.00 pb • OP-200-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4470-9

www.rand.org

Counterinsurgency Running Header An Argument for Documenting Casualties

Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era

Violence Against Iraqi Civilians 2006

The Strategic Importance of USAF Advisory and Assistance Missions

Katharine Hall, Dale Stahl

Protecting the civilian population is one of the central tenets of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine. The authors examine available open-source data on Iraqi civilian fatalities and assess previous documentation efforts by the U.S. military. They present a more robust dataset and propose a framework for future data gathering in Iraq and beyond. 70 pp. • 2008 • $31.50 pb • MG-740-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4461-7

Counterinsurgency in a Test Tube Analyzing the Success of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) Russell W. Glenn

The author reviews the successes, and the few shortcomings, of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands—which aimed to assist the existing government in reestablishing order and rebuilding this island nation plagued by escalating violence, crime, and corruption.

Alan J. Vick, Adam Grissom, William Rosenau, Beth Grill, Karl P. Mueller

“[This book] delivers far more than the title implies. In the best tradition of RAND studies, this work combines theory, model development, and policy applications for developing counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy writ large and for improving USAF COIN capabilities specifically…. It offers a prescient analysis of COIN warfare and strategy and provides trenchant recommendations for enhancing the Service’s capability in the Long War against Islamic extremism.” —Joint Force Quarterly 204 pp. • 2006 • $25.00 pb • MG-509-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3963-7

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Pacification in Algeria

188 pp. • color charts • 2007 • $30.00 pb • MG-551-JFCOM •

1956–1958

ISBN: 978-0-8330-4027-5

David Galula Foreword by Bruce Hoffman

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

On “Other War” Lessons from Five Decades of RAND Counterinsurgency Research Austin Long

“[An] essential work for any scholar of small wars and counterinsurgency…. On “Other War” contains a wealth of information on doctrinal development and two excellent bibliographies of counterinsurgency publications.” —Journal of Military History

Based on R AND’s impressive body of counterinsurgency (COIN) research, the author provides an intellectual history of COIN theory, summarizes successful COIN campaigns, and makes recommendations for improvements in strategy. 118 pp. • 2006 • $20.00 pb • MG-482 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3926-2

“To understand the new American military strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan you could download a copy of the Army’s counterinsurgency field manual, FM 3-24. Or you could read this elegant, entertaining book by French Lt. Col. David Galula that inspired Gen. David Petraeus in producing FM 3-24.” —New York Post

“Galula’s ideas have emerged as key elements of American counterinsurgency doctrine. His Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice was one of the first texts used by Army officers in 2005 to come to grips with problems confronting them in Iraq. Far more impressive and readable, but less well known, is Galula’s Pacification in Algeria, written, at RAND’s invitation, following his participation in a conference on counterinsurgency in 1962 on similar problems confronting the United States in Vietnam…. The similarities between France’s mistakes in Algeria and American performance in Iraq are striking…. Pacification in Algeria is an exciting story of the difficulties faced by a small-unit commander striving to succeed in a nebulous counterinsurgency environment. It is a story smallunit leaders in Iraq today will find quite familiar.” —Journal of Military History 324 pp. • 1963/2006 • $28.50 pb • MG-478-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3920-0

toll free 877.584.8642

Running Public Safety Header Public Safety

Strategies for Disrupting Illegal Firearm Markets

The RAND Center on Quality Policing provides research and analysis on contemporary police practice and policy. By determining what practices are most costeffective and results-oriented, the center’s work helps law enforcement agencies across the United States make better operational decisions and consistently perform at their best. For more information, please visit http://cqp.rand.org.

A Case Study of Los Angeles

Strategies for Improving Officer Recruitment in the San Diego Police Department

90 pp. • 2008 • $24.00 pb • TR-512-NIJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4478-5

Greg Ridgeway, Nelson Lim, Brian Gifford, Christopher Koper, Carl Matthies, Sara Hajiamiri, Alexis Huynh

Bernard D. Rostker, William M. Hix, Jeremy M. Wilson

In policing, achievement of recruiting goals means more than just solving a human-resource problem. It means the adequate provision of public safety to residents, workers, businesses, and visitors. This book details R AND’s effort to analyze and improve the recruiting program for the San Diego Police Department, which has been operating below its authorized size in recent years. 160 pp. • 2008 • $35.00 pb • MG-724-SDPD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4517-1

Greg Ridgeway, Glenn L. Pierce, Anthony A. Braga, George Tita, Garen Wintemute, Wendell Roberts

This study describes ways that law enforcement can analyze patterns in crime-gun data to trace illicit firearm acquisition, use community-based interventions to stem the illegal flow, and use retail ammunition-purchase records in identifying prohibited firearm possessors.

Recruitment and Retention Lessons for the New Orleans Police Department Since Hurricane Katrina, resignations from the New Orleans Police Department (NOPD) have increased, and the department went more than a year without recruiting enough candidates to justify a police academy training course. The authors present practical recommendations for change that could help the NOPD improve recruiting and retention, including compensation, housing, promotions and career management, recruiting, the mix of officers and civilians, and ways to improve the morale of the NOPD. 48 pp. • 2007 • $21.50 pb • MG-585-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4142-5

Evaluation of the New York City Police Department Firearm Training and Firearm-Discharge Review Process

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Bernard D. Rostker, Lawrence M. Hanser, William M. Hix, Carl Jensen, Andrew R. Morral, Greg Ridgeway, Terry L. Schell

Human Trafficking in Ohio

In January 2007, New York City Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly asked the R AND Corporation to examine his department’s firearm training and firearmdischarge review and identify potential improvements. This monograph reports the authors’ observations, findings, and recommendations. 142 pp. • 2008 • $29.50 pb • MG-717-NYPD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4416-7

Analysis of Racial Disparities in the New York City Police Department’s Stop, Question, and Frisk Practices Greg Ridgeway

The New York City Police Department asked R AND to help it understand racial disparities in police-pedestrian encounters. Raw statistics suggested large racial disparities—89 percent of the stops involved nonwhites. Did these statistics point to racial bias in police officers’ decisions to stop particular pedestrians? RAND researchers found small racial differences in these rates and make communication, recordkeeping, and training recommendations to the NYPD for improving police-pedestrian interactions.

Markets, Responses, and Considerations Jeremy M. Wilson and Erin Dalton

Through their exploration of concrete cases of human trafficking in Columbus and Toledo, Ohio, the authors assess the awareness of and response to the problem by the justice systems and social service providers in the two cities. The volume concludes with suggestions on how to raise awareness about human trafficking and improve the responses of the criminal justice system, the juvenile justice system, and social services to the problem. 108 pp. • 2007 • $23.50 pb • MG-689-OACP • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4296-5

Training the 21st Century Police Officer Redefining Police Professionalism for the Los Angeles Police Department Russell W. Glenn, Barbara R. Panitch, Dionne Barnes-Proby, Elizabeth Williams, John Christian, Matthew W. Lewis, Scott Gerwehr, David W. Brannan 278 pp. • 2003 • $30.00 pb • MR-1745-LAPD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3468-7

80 pp. • 2007 • $24.00 pb • TR-534-NYCPF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4515-7

www.rand.org

Public Safety Running • Science Header & Technology Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks Lynn E. Davis, Tom LaTourrette, David E. Mosher, Lois M. Davis, David R. Howell

Individual preparedness is an important element of the United States’ strategy for homeland security. This book adopts a scenario-driven approach that provides a rigorous way to identify actions—linked to specific types of terrorist attacks—that individuals can take to protect their health and safety. A handy reference card is included and can be removed for display. 198 pp. • 2003 • $28.00 pb • MR-1731-SF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3473-1

Protecting Emergency Responders Community Views of Safety and Health Risks and Personal Protection Needs Tom LaTourrette, D. J. Peterson, James T. Bartis, Brian A. Jackson, Ari Houser

“The results will help shape research and development on a number of fronts.” —Advanced Rescue Technology 174 pp. • 2003 • $28.00 pb • MR-1646-NIOSH • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3295-9

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

The Global Technology Revolution 2020, Executive Summary Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications Richard Silberglitt, Philip S. Anton, David R. Howell, Anny Wong, S. R. Bohandy, Natalie Gassman, Brian A. Jackson, Eric Landree, Shari Lawrence Pfleeger, Elaine M. Newton, Felicia Wu

This set of foresights tracks global technology trends—in biotechnology, nanotechnology, materials technology, and information technology—and their implications for the world in 2020. The authors assess 29 countries with respect to their ability to acquire and implement 16 key technology applications (e.g., cheap solar energy, rural wireless communications, genetically modified crops). A CD-ROM is included with in-depth analyses of the study (also available as a printed report, below). 44 pp. • color charts • Includes CD • 2006 • $30.00 pb • MG-475-NIC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3910-1

The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

Science & Technology Perspectives on U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology Titus Galama and James Hosek

On November 8, 2006, R AND convened a meeting to review evidence presented by experts from academia, government, and the private sector that addressed the question of whether the United States was losing its competitiveness in science and technology. The papers presented at this meeting are compiled in this monograph and provide a survey of the facts, challenges, and questions posed by the potential erosion of U.S. science and technology capability. 160 pp. • 2007 • $30.50 pb • CF-235-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4179-1

Richard Silberglitt, Philip S. Anton, David R. Howell, Anny Wong, Natalie Gassman, Brian A. Jackson, Eric Landree, Shari Lawrence Pfleeger, Elaine M. Newton, Felicia Wu

This companion document to the volume above discusses a sample of 29 countries with respect to their ability to acquire and implement 16 key technology applications. (Note: Included on CD-ROM with the volume above.) 314 pp. • 2006 • $30.00 pb • TR-303-NIC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3975-0

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes

“Arguably the most impressive RAND contribution to forecasting methodology since its development of Delphi half a century ago.” —Technological Forecasting and Social Change 208 pp. • 2003 • $30.00 pb • MR-1626-RPC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3275-1

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Science & Technology • Terrorism & Homeland Security “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Conducting Research Surveys via E-mail and the Web

Stealing the Sword

Matthias Schonlau, Ronald D. Fricker, Jr., Marc N. Elliott

“As a result of its brevity, clarity, and breadth, this belongs on the desk as a reference for those who are new to surveying and as a checklist for experienced researchers.” —Library Quarterly 142 pp. • 2002 • $22.00 pb • MR-1480-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3110-5

Terrorism & Homeland Security “Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies Kim Cragin, Peter Chalk, Sara A. Daly, Brian A. Jackson

“The authors examine the partnerships that various terrorist groups have formed, especially with regard to mutually supportive technologies…. The authors conclude that if legitimate governments are going to be successful against these organizations and their technological capabilities, they must take positive action to improve current threat assessments, create innovative ways to counter such groups, and make the possible use of these technologies too expensive in terms of costbenefit for the terrorist groups.” —Parameters, the U.S. Army War College quarterly

“Noting that terrorist groups have increased their effectiveness through exchanges with other groups, the authors provide suggestions for disrupting these channels of communication and preventing the uptake of new technologies and strategies by some of the world’s most dangerous organisations.” —Survival 136 pp. • 2007 • $20.00 pb • MG-485-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3915-6

Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences Martin C. Libicki, Peter Chalk, Melanie Sisson

This volume examines various hypotheses of terrorist targeting: Is it to coerce, to damage economies, to rally the faithful, or a decision left to affiliates? Analyzing past attacks, al Qaeda’s statements, and expert opinion, the authors draw conclusions for prioritizing homeland security efforts. 130 pp. • 2007 • $20.00 pb • MG-483-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3913-2

Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons James Bonomo, Giacomo Bergamo, David R. Frelinger, John Gordon IV, Brian A. Jackson

Can the United States shape the environment, including the perceptions of terrorists, to discourage the use of advanced conventional weapons? The authors review weapons under development, assess prospective and previous terrorist uses of such weapons, identify ways to make particular kinds of weapons less attractive to terrorist groups, and explore reasons that terrorist groups choose or reject certain weapons. 154 pp. • $20.00 pb • 2007 • MG-510-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3965-1

Breaching the Fortress Wall Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies Brian A. Jackson, Peter Chalk, R. Kim Cragin, Bruce Newsome, John V. Parachini, William Rosenau, Erin M. Simpson, Melanie Sisson, Donald Temple

“The United States and other nations continually deploy new tactics and techniques to combat terrorists and disrupt their operations. The enemy, however, is an inherently agile and adaptive one. This book from the renowned RAND Corp. assesses how major terrorist groups have responded to counterterrorism efforts with their own countermeasures and counter-countermeasures…. While technology is indispensable in fighting terror, the authors note that it is not a ‘silver bullet.’ They highlight the importance of other tools, such as human intelligence. Here, the book’s value is most evident…. Because of its unique approach, this book would be of interest both to the accomplished security practitioner and to the student of the trade. This is truly a book to add to your professional bookshelf.” —Security Management 182 pp. • 2007 • $25.00 pb • MG-481-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3914-9

Maritime Terrorism Risk and Liability Michael D. Greenberg, Peter Chalk, Henry H. Willis, Ivan Khilko, David S. Ortiz

“This book achieves its goal of providing a policy level discussion of maritime terrorism risk and liability. The liability discussion should be mandatory reading for policy makers, insurers, and private sector maritime business leaders. The qualitative discussion of the components of the risk of maritime terrorism and the discussion of specific scenarios are [also] very useful.” —Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 198 pp. • 2006 • $30.00 pb • MG-520-CTRMP • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4030-5

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Terrorism Running & Homeland HeaderSecurity

Unconquerable Nation

“The RAND Corporation… has provided an excellent two volume analysis [to defeating al-Qaeda] which are sober, evenhanded, and worthwhile reads.”

Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves

Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement

Brian Michael Jenkins

226 pp. • 2006 • $30.00 pb • MG-429-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3930-9

“Long before international terrorism became a salient issue for Americans, many years before 9/11 bred a legion of supposed ‘experts’ on terrorism, Brian Michael Jenkins was pioneering serious study of the subject. His work at the RAND Corporation beginning four decades ago is a foundation of modern scholarship on terrorism…. Unconquerable Nation distills much of Jenkins’s painstakingly acquired wisdom about terrorism and applies it to today’s challenge of countering the global jihadist movement.”

Part 2, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe

Selected as “Outstanding” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

—Journal of Strategic Studies

“Unconquerable Nation combines into one volume some of homeland security’s best writing, scholarship, history, critical thinking, pragmatism, personal opinion, and political acumen.” —Homeland Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security 254 pp. • index • 2006 • MG-454-RC $29.95 hb • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3893-7 $19.95 pb • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3891-3

—Middle East Quarterly

214 pp. • 2006 • $25.00 pb • MG-430-AF • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3932-3

Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1 Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism Brian A. Jackson, with John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, Horacio R. Trujillo

“A two-volume work by RAND explores …the concepts and processes of learning and applies [them] to the world of terrorism. Volume one guides the reader through this process of learning, highlighting why terror groups must learn how to be effective and how tactical knowledge, or lack thereof, ultimately influences the effectiveness of the group…. Overall, the volume is a fascinating study of how terrorists, and criminals, become who they are.” —Security Management

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

104 pp. • 2005 • $20.00 pb • MG-331-NIJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3764-0

Beyond al-Qaeda, Part 1

Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 2

The Global Jihadist Movement

Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups

Beyond al-Qaeda, Part 2

Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, Horacio R. Trujillo

The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O’Brien, William Rosenau

“For a reader seeking a description of al-Qaeda’s history, structure, financing, tactics, and evolution, this work provides a concise explanation of these key elements of the terrorist network. It is free of unnecessary and confusing jargon and accessible to students at any level… While the first part focuses on al-Qaeda, as the title suggests, the second part examines the multitude of Islamist, left-wing, and right-wing terror groups around the world. Part 2 clearly shows that al-Qaeda is but one of many. Readers will find this work useful in developing a general understanding of al-Qaeda and the terror nexus that is the focus of the current global war on terror. Recommended. All readership levels.”

“Jemaah Islamiyah, Aum Shinrikyo, Hizballah, the Provisional Irish Republican Army, and the radical environmentalist movement are singled out for case studies in volume two of this examination of how terrorists learn. Readers come to understand the backgrounds, operations and tactics, training methods, logistics, and intelligence operations of these groups.” —Security Management 214 pp. • 2005 • $30.00 pb • MG-332-NIJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3767-1

Out of the Ordinary Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior John Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth McKay, John Boon 188 pp. • 2004 • $27.50 pb • MG-126-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3520-2

—Choice

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Terrorism & Homeland Security • Transportation & Infrastructure Mapping the Risks Assessing the Homeland Security Implications of Publicly Available Geospatial Information John C. Baker, Beth E. Lachman, David R. Frelinger, Kevin M. O’Connell, Alexander C. Hou, Michael S. Tseng, David Orletsky, Charles Yost 236 pp. • 2004 • $24.00 pb • MG-142-NGA • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3547-9

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

Confronting the “Enemy Within” Security Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies Peter Chalk and William Rosenau 90 pp. • 2004 • $18.00 pb • MG-100-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3513-4

Transportation & Infrastructure Securing America’s Passenger-Rail Systems Jeremy M. Wilson, Brian A. Jackson, Mel Eisman, Paul Steinberg, K. Jack Riley

U.S. communities depend on reliable, safe, and secure rail systems; each weekday, more than 12 million passengers take to U.S. railways. Recent attacks on passenger-rail systems around the world highlight the vulnerability of rail travel and the importance of rail security for these passengers. This book explains a framework that security planners and policymakers can use for cost-effective railsecurity planning.

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

142 pp. • 2007 • $28.00 pb • MG-705-NIJ • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4117-3

Networks and Netwars

Freedom and Information

The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy

Assessing Publicly Available Data Regarding U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Security

John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, editors

“The attacks of Sept 11 on the World Trade Center and Pentagon have generated interest throughout the world in the way networked technologies are affecting the waging of conflicts around our globe, be they ideological or military…. [This book is] comprehensive and well-structured [and] covers many, if not all, aspects of the subject at hand.” —International Journal of Law & Information Technology 380 pp. • 2001 • $25.00 pb • MR-1382-OSD • ISBN: 0-8330-3030-2

Countering the New Terrorism Ian O. Lesser, Bruce Hoffman, John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt, Michele Zanini Foreword by Brian Michael Jenkins

“A compilation of articles from some of the best and brightest analysts at RAND…. [A] must read in considering the future of terrorism.” —Terrorism Research Center 176 pp. • index • 1999 • $24.00 pb • MR-989-AF • ISBN: 0-8330-2667-4

In Athena’s Camp Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, editors Foreword by Alvin and Heidi Toffler

Eric Landree, Christopher Paul, Beth Grill, Aruna Balakrishnan, Bradley Wilson, Martin C. Libicki

How much information regarding U.S. anti- and counterterrorism systems, countermeasures, and defenses is publicly available and how easily could it be found by individuals seeking to harm U.S. domestic interests? The authors developed a framework to guide assessments of the availability of such information for planning attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure, and applied the framework in an information-gathering exercise that used several attack scenarios. 110 pp. • 2007 • $26.00 pb • TR-360-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4031-2

Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Henry H. Willis, Tom LaTourrette, Terrence K. Kelly, Scot Hickey, Samuel Neill

To help the Department of Homeland Security focus its approach to risk reduction and resource allocation, this volume applies a probabilistic terrorism model that is broadly used in the insurance industry to assess risk across cities, to assess risks within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis. 120 pp. • 2007 • $20.00 pb • TR-386-DHS • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3974-3

“Anyone interested in military history and cyberspace should read this book.” —Science and Technology Journal 525 pp. • 1997 • $36.00 pb • MR-880-OSD/RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-2514-2

www.rand.org

Workforce Running in the Header Military Workforce in the Military Performance Evaluation and Army Recruiting James N. Dertouzos, Steven Garber

Traditional performance metrics for Army recruiters, such as number of contracts signed per month per recruiter, do not adequately measure recruiter effort, skill, and productivity. The authors develop a preferred metric that takes into account the difficulty of recruiting different types of youth in various markets. Because the current recruiter reward system is deeply ingrained, however, the authors propose modest, gradual changes to the system. 126 pp. • 2008 • $27.50 pb • MG-562-A • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4310-8

Families Under Stress An Assessment of Data, Theory, and Research on Marriage and Divorce in the Military Benjamin R. Karney and John S. Crown

Recent demands on the military have raised concerns about the impact of extended deployments on military marriages. The authors draw on marital status data in service personnel records to estimate trends in marriage and marital dissolution between 1996 and 2005, focusing on the specific effects of time deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq on subsequent risk of ending a marriage. 244 pp. • 2007 • $32.50 pb • MG-599-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4145-6

Assessing the Assignment Policy for Army Women Margaret C. Harrell, Laura Werber Castaneda, Peter Schirmer, Bryan W. Hallmark, Jennifer Kavanagh, Daniel Gershwin, Paul Steinberg

The current U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) policy for assigning military women was issued in 1994, and the U.S. Army’s assignment policy dates to 1992. The U.S. Army has undergone significant technological and organizational transformation since then, changing how it organizes and fights. The authors find that the Army is adhering to the DoD assignment policy but may not be with the separate assignment policy for women. 184 pp. • 2007 • $28.50 pb • MG-590-1-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4150-0

Invisible Women Junior Enlisted Army Wives Margaret C. Harrell

America Goes to War Managing the Force During Times of Stress and Uncertainty Bernard D. Rostker

For more than three decades, the United States has relied on an all-volunteer force to meet its military needs. Today, the sustainability of that force is being tested with high levels of deployment and subsequent “stress.” This report looks at the history of conscription versus volunteerism (particularly in Great Britain, France, and Prussia) to understand when and under what conditions conscription has been used effectively to raise the manpower needed. The author also analyzes the many programs that have been developed to help military members and their families cope during difficult times. 124 pp. • 2007 • $25.00 pb • MG-380-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3980-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

I Want You! The Evolution of the All-Volunteer Force Bernard D. Rostker Foreword by former Secretary of Defense, Melvin R. Laird

“Rostker, who has held numerous federal posts and is currently a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, is the ideal scholar to have written this study, a massive and definitive history of the all-volunteer military force in the U.S. from its genesis in the late 1960s to early 2005. It is a unique contribution. Rostker’s research is prodigious to say the least, relying on over 1,700 original documents, including congressional testimony, analytical studies, interviews, and other archival sources—most of which are included on an accompanying DVD.” —Choice

“[The author] has compiled a monumental study of the modern volunteer Army that should be of interest to any professional soldier…. Likewise, it should be of interest to the civilians in the Army and Defense Secretariats [and of] vital interest to members of Congress and their staffs…. Perhaps the prime value of this book is the accompanying DVD that lists more than 1,700 primary source documents.” —Army Magazine 832 pp. • Includes DVD • 2006 • $68.50 cl/DVD • MG-265-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3895-1

“Harrell’s book is not a traditional academic volume; it reads more like an interesting set of stories about three different women…. The stories are quite moving and give voice to women too often ignored.” —Gender & Society 128 pp. • 2001 • $15.00 pb • MR-1223 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-2880-8

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Workforce & Workplace Running • Books Header from Other Presses Workforce & Workplace

Books from Other Presses

Managing Diversity in Corporate America

Periodically, RAND Corporation researchers publish with other commercial and university presses. The books in this section are not available from RAND; please contact your favorite bookseller, or the publisher (indicated below each book) directly, for ordering information.

An Exploratory Analysis Jefferson P. Marquis, Nelson Lim, Lynn M. Scott, Margaret C. Harrell, Jennifer Kavanagh

Managing diversity has become a primary concern of top U.S. corporations. In this paper, the authors develop a fact-based approach to modeling diversity management in order to determine whether diversity-friendly corporations really do stand out from other companies. 44 pp. • 2007 • $21.00 pb • OP-206-RC • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4305-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

High-Performance Government Structure, Leadership, Incentives Robert Klitgaard and Paul C. Light, editors

“[This volume of essays] presents a bird’s-eye view of RAND’s perspective on what needs to be done to improve government performance generally… The RAND [researchers] know a great deal and can put what they know into an inviting framework. They are adventurous and venture where others fear to tread…. Every contribution is thought provoking and an education in itself.” —Public Administration Review 496 pp. • 2005 • MG-256-PRGS $40.00 cl • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3662-9 $32.00 pb • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3740-4

“Recommended” by the American Association of School Libraries and the Public Library Association

The 21st Century at Work Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace in the United States Lynn A. Karoly and Constantijn W. A. Panis

“Karoly and Panis discuss major factors that will shape the future of work over the next decade and their implications for the size, composition, skills, and compensation of the workforce and for conditions in the workplace. Recommended. Faculty, upper-division undergraduate and graduate students, and practitioners.” —Choice 304 pp. • 2004 • $30.00 pb • MG-164-DOL • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3492-2

After the Taliban Nation-Building in Afghanistan James F. Dobbins

“One of the wisest and most experienced of America’s foreign policy hands skillfully tells what went right and wrong in Afghanistan. This is a timely personal and policy story. Each chapter pulses with thoughtful lessons that were learned or should have been learned.” —Bob Woodward, assistant managing editor, Washington Post, and author of Bush at War

In October 2001, the Bush administration sent Ambassador James F. Dobbins, who had overseen nation-building efforts in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo, to wartorn Afghanistan to help the Afghans assemble a successor government to the Taliban. From warlords to exiled royalty, from turbaned tribal chieftains to elegant émigré intellectuals, Ambassador Dobbins introduces a range of colorful Afghan figures competing for dominance in the new Afghanistan. His firsthand account of the post–9/11 American diplomacy also reveals how collaboration within Bush’s war cabinet began to break down almost as soon major combat in Afghanistan ceased. His insider’s memoir recounts how the administration reluctantly adjusted to its new role as nation-builder, refused to allow American soldiers to conduct peacekeeping operations, opposed dispatching international troops, and shortchanged Afghan reconstruction as its attention shifted to Iraq. In After the Taliban, Dobbins probes the relationship between the Afghan and Iraqi ventures. He demonstrates how each damaged the other, with deceptively easy success in Afghanistan breeding overconfidence and then the latter draining essential resources away from the initial effort. Written by America’s most experienced diplomatic troubleshooter, this important new book is for readers looking for insights into how government really works, how diplomacy is actually conducted, and most important why the United States has failed to stabilize either Afghanistan or Iraq. 216 pp. • 2008 • $24.95 cloth • ISBN: 978-1-59797-083-9 Potomac Books www.potomacbooksinc.com • Email: pbimail@presswarehouse.com

An Operational Process for Workforce Planning Robert M. Emmerichs, Cheryl Y. Marcum, Albert A. Robbert 78 pp. • 2004 • $20.00 pb • MR-1684/1-OSD • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3452-6

www.rand.org

Books Running from Other Header Presses Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

Organizing for Quality

Brian Michael Jenkins

The Improvement Journeys of Leading Hospitals in Europe and the United States

Foreword by Sen. Gary Hart, Co-Chair, Commission on National Security Preface by Thomas C. Schelling, Nobel Laureate Introduction by Gov. James Gilmore, Chair, Advisory Panel on Weapons of Mass Destruction

“Jenkins shows us how we must confront our fears with thoughtful and diligent action. We can afford to do no less. A must-read.” —George Tenet, former director of the CIA

According to a British intelligence report leaked to the press in 2007, al Qaeda operatives are planning a largescale attack “on par with Hiroshima and Nagasaki.” How likely is it that terrorists will develop the capability of such an attack? Brian Michael Jenkins—one of the world’s most renowned experts on terrorism—goes beyond what the experts know about terrorists’ efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, nuclear black markets, “suitcase bombs,” and such mysterious substances as red mercury to examine how terrorists themselves think about such weapons. Jenkins notes that terrorists have become increasingly adept at creating an atmosphere of nuclear terror. Al Qaeda, in fact, may have succeeded in becoming the world’s first terrorist nuclear power without possessing even a single nuclear weapon. 410 pp. • 2008 • $26.95 cloth • ISBN: 978-1-59102-656-3 Prometheus Books www. prometheusbooks.com Email: marketing@prometheusbooks.com

Gender and Health The Effects of Constrained Choices and Social Policies Chloe E. Bird and Patricia P. Rieker

Gender and Health is the first book to examine how men’s and women’s lives and their physiology contribute to differences in their health. In a thoughtful synthesis of diverse literatures, the authors demonstrate that modern societies’ health problems ultimately involve a combination of policies, personal behavior, and choice. The book is designed for researchers, policymakers, and others who seek to understand how the choices of individuals, families, communities, and governments contribute to health. It can inform men and women at each of these levels how to better integrate health implications into their everyday decisions and actions. 272 pp. • 2008 $85.00 cl • 978-0-5218-6415-2 $25.99 pb • 978-0-5216-8280-0 Cambridge University Press • www.cambridge.org

Paul Bate, Peter Mendel, and Glenn Robert Foreword by Donald M. Berwick

This challenging and highly practical book draws on findings from an international study designed to help practitioners and researchers understand the factors and processes that enable health care organizations in the United States and Europe to achieve—and sustain—highquality services for their users. The in-depth case studies from seven leading hospitals provide an international, evidence-based outlook that focuses on both the organizational and cultural processes of quality improvement. Health care policymakers and -shapers, including hospital chief executives and national health service directors, will find this book enlightening, as will health care researchers and academics, professionals, and clinicians with an interest in quality improvement. 280 pp., color plates • 2008 • $69.00 • ISBN: 978-1-8461-9151-0 Radcliffe Publishing • Published in Association with the Nuffield Trust www.radcliffe-oxford.com

Looking Backward and Forward Policy Issues in the Twenty-First Century Chalres Wolf, Jr.

This collection of twenty-five essays written over the last five years by international economic policy expert Charles Wolf, Jr., covers a wide range of worldwide economic, political, security, and diplomatic issues. The author looks at the challenges the United States faces at home and around the world, including critical issues regarding China, Japan, Korea, Russia, Iraq, and other key locales. These essays— many of which originally appeared in such renowned publications as the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, and the International Herald Tribune, among others— reflect the pattern of policy issues to expect in the twentyfirst century: a variety and complexity of themes that spill over the standard boundaries of political, economic, and military affairs. Wolf offers a brief “postaudit” at the end of each essay, indicating whether, in his judgment, the argument set forth is still valid and relevant compared with when it was first written. He invites readers to make their own assessments, arriving at a lower or higher grade than he does for each essay in the collection. 178 pp. • 2008 $25.00 cl • 978-0-8179-4871-9 $15.00 pb • 978-0-8179-4872-6 Hoover Institution Press • www.hooverpress.org

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Books from Other Running Presses Header • R AND Classics Conquest in Cyberspace

Planets for Man

National Security and Information Warfare

Stephen H. Dole and Isaac Asimov

Martin C. Libicki

Although the global Internet has served primarily as an arena for peaceful commerce, some analysts have become concerned that cyberspace could be used as a potential domain of warfare. Libicki argues that the possibilities of hostile conquest are less threatening than these analysts suppose. He explores both the potential for and limitations to information warfare, including its use in weapons systems and in command-and-control operations as well as in the generation of “noise.” He also investigates how far “friendly conquest” in cyberspace extends, such as the power to persuade users to adopt new points of view. Libicki discusses the role of public policy in managing the conquest and defense of cyberspace and shows how cyberspace is becoming more ubiquitous and complex.

Written at the height of the space race, when it was assumed that in the not-too-distant future human beings would “be able to travel the vast distances to other stars,” Planets for Man explores whether there are other worlds on which humans or other life may flourish. Co-authored by R AND researcher Stephen H. Dole and science fiction master Isaac Asimov—certainly one of the more unusual co-authorships in R AND’s long history of research and publishing—the book was based on a more technical treatise authored by Dole, below. 254 pp. • 1964/2007 • $27.50 pb • CB-183-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4226-2

336 pp. • 2007 $80.00 cl • 978-0-5218-7160-0 $27.99 pb • 978-0-5216-9214-4

Habitable Planets for Man

Cambridge University Press • www.cambridge.org

Sixty years after Dole’s treatise was originally published, humankind is still captivated with the tantalizing possibility of life on other planets and continues to ponder whether we will eventually be able to inhabit other worlds.

False Hope Bone Marrow Transplantation for Breast Cancer

Stephen H. Dole

Richard A. Rettig, Peter D. Jacobson, Cynthia M. Farquhar, Wade M. Aubry

176 pp. • 1964/2007 • $22.50 pb • CB-179-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4227-9

In the late 1980s, a promising new treatment for breast cancer emerged: high-dose chemotherapy with autologous bone marrow transplantation (HDC/ABMT). By the time published studies showed that the procedure was ineffective, more than 30,000 women had received the treatment. This book tells of the rise and demise of this treatment, the factors that drove clinical use, and the significance of the story for our health care system.

Preliminary Design of an Experimental WorldCircling Spaceship

448 pp. • 2007 • $49.95 cl • ISBN: 978-0-19-518776-2 Oxford University Press • www.oup.com/us • Use promo code 25102.

RAND Classics

Special 50th Anniversary Edition This volume presents a facsimile edition of R AND’s first report, on the feasibility of a space vehicle from an engineering standpoint, written more than 11 years before the orbiting of Sputnik. Alongside the diagrams and tabulations are now-proven theories on the significance of satellites to our store of knowledge and on the possibility of manned space exploration. 340 pp. • 1946/1998 • $65.00 pb • SM-11827 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-2672-9

Space Handbook Astronautics and Its Applications Robert W. Buchheim and the Staff of the RAND Corporation

This basic guide on the uses and characteristics of space systems was written at the request of Congress and produced in only three weeks, using R AND’s own funds in public interest. The authoritative report made the Government Printing Office’s list of the 10 bestsellers of all time, later became a commercial book, and has now been republished by R AND. 348 pp. • 1958/2007 • $32.50 pb • CB-136-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4223-1

www.rand.org

R AND Classics How Much Is Enough?

The Operational Code of the Politburo

Shaping the Defense Program, 1961–1969

Nathan Constantin Leites

Alain C. Enthoven and K. Wayne Smith

This classic of defense analysis presents an insider’s view of how the defense issues of the 1960s were decided. Originally published by Harper & Row in 1971 and now reprinted for the digital age, its lessons can still be applied to today’s national security environment. As the inexorable growth of federal government health care expenditures and retirement programs puts ever-greater pressure on the defense budget, the application of rigorous analysis and tough-minded prioritization will become even more indispensable. This new edition includes a foreword by Kenneth J. Krieg and David S.C. Chu. 394 pp. • 1971/2005 • $24.00 pb • CB-403 • ISBN: ISBN: 978-0-83303826-5

The Compleat Strategyst Being a Primer on the Theory of Games of Strategy John D. Williams

“The Compleat Strategyst is another in the series of splendid research studies being conducted by the RAND Corporation…. Employing nothing more than plain arithmetic and amusing illustrations the author takes a complex subject, heretofore understandable only by a handful of experts, and reduces it to a clear and sound introduction to a fascinating and useful field of knowledge.” —Military Affairs, Autumn 1954

Game theory’s prominence today can be traced at least in part to this book, which popularized the subject for amateurs, professionals, and students throughout the world. The book has now been republished by R AND. 304 pp. • 1954/2007 • $29.50 pb • CB-113-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4222-4

Games of Strategy

Theoretical frameworks that examine political actors’ personal characteristics and how they affect the foreign policies of their respective states are useful tools for analysts, researchers, and historians. One of the most widely used frameworks has been operational code analysis, introduced by Nathan Leites in this seminal volume. 118 pp. • 1951/2007 • $20.00 pb • CB-104-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4221-7

Strategy in the Missile Age Bernard Brodie

This work, originally published in 1959, retains ample relevance today for its discussion of the origins of air power, its cornerstone position in the evolution of Cold War–era nuclear strategy, and its treatment of preventive and preemptive attacks, deterrence, and the economics of strategy. 440 pp. • 1959/2007 • $39.50 pb • CB-137-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4224-8

A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates This book was a product of R AND’s pioneering work in computing, and it remains a testament to the patience and persistence of researchers in the early days of R AND. Still the largest published source of random digits and normal deviates, this work has become a standard reference in engineering and econometrics textbooks and has been used by statisticians, physicists, polltakers, market analysts, lottery administrators, and quality control engineers. This new edition presents the book in its original format, with a new foreword by Michael D. Rich, R AND’s Executive Vice President. 628 pp. • 1955/2001 • $90.00 pb • ISBN: 978-0-8330-3047-4

Theory and Applications Melvin Dresher

“The author has presented an introduction to the mathematical theory of games and has developed the subject matter in such a manner as to make the book usable as a test on the theory of games.” —Operations Research, March–April 1962

This classic introduced readers to the basic concepts of game theory and its applications for military, economic, and political problems, as well as its usefulness in decisionmaking in business, operations research, and behavioral science. 198 pp. • 1961/2007 • $24.50 pb • CB-149-1 • ISBN: 978-0-8330-4225-5

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Title Index

A Adolescent Romantic Relationships as Precursors of Healthy Adult Marriages: A Review of Theory, Research, and Programs, 16 Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics, and the Way Ahead: Findings from an International Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007, 24 After Saddam: Prewar Planning and the Occupation of Iraq, 5 After the Taliban: NationBuilding in Afghanistan, 37 After the War: Nation-Building from FDR to George W. Bush, 5 Air Power Against Terror: America’s Conduct of Operation Enduring Freedom, 28 Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era: The Strategic Importance of USAF Advisory and Assistance Missions, 30 Aligning Post-Secondary Educational Choices to Societal Needs: A New Scholarship System for Qatar, 18 America Goes to War: Managing the Force During Times of Stress and Uncertainty, 36 America’s Role in NationBuilding: From Germany to Iraq, 23 Analysis of Racial Disparities in the New York City Police Department’s Stop, Question, and Frisk Practices, 31 Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis, 14 Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies, 11 Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, 34 Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups, 34 An Argument for Documenting Casualties: Violence Against Iraqi Civilians 2006, 30 Arts and Culture in the Metropolis: Strategies for Sustainability, 15 Asbestos Litigation, 17 Assessing the Assignment Policy for Army Women, 36

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis, 12 Assessing the Validity of the Qualistar Early Learning Quality Rating and Improvement System as a Tool for Improving Child-Care Quality, 15 B The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building, 23 Beyond al-Qaeda, Part 1: The Global Jihadists Movement, 34 Beyond al-Qaeda, Part 2: The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe, 34 Brain Korea 21 Phase II: A New Evaluation Model, 25 Breaching the Fortress Wall: Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies, 33 Breaking the Failed-State Cycle, 22 Building a Successful Palestinian State: The R AND Palestinian State Study Team, 25 Building Moderate Muslim Networks, 24 Byting Back—Regaining Information Superiority Against 21st-Century Insurgents: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 1, 11 C The Challenge of Domestic Intelligence in a Free Society: A Multidisciplinary Look at the Creation of a U.S. Domestic Counterterrorism Intelligence Agency, 12 The Challenge of NuclearArmed Regional Adversaries, 9 Child-Care Quality Rating and Improvement Systems in Five Pioneer States: Implementation Issues and Lessons Learned, 15 Chinese Economic Coercion Against Taiwan: A Tricky Weapon to Use, 26 Civil Democratic Islam: Partners, Resources, and Strategies, 25 Combat Pair: The Evolution of Air Force-Navy Integration in Strike Warfare, 27 A Comparison of the Health Systems on China and India, 21 The Compleat Strategyst: Being a Primer on the Theory of Games of Strategy, 40

Conducting Research Surveys via E-mail and the Web, 33 Confronting the “Enemy Within”: Security Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies, 35 Conquest in Cyberspace: National Security and Information Warfare, 39 Considering the Creation of a Domestic Intelligence Agency in the United States: Lesson from the Experiences of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, 12 Countering the New Terrorism, 35 Counterinsurgency in a Test Tube: Analyzing the Success of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (R AMSI), 30 Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 4, 10 Counterinsurgency in Iraq (2003–2006): R AND Counterinsurgency Study— Volume 2, 11 Cultivating Demand for the Arts: Arts Learning, Arts Engagement, and State Arts Policy, 15

The Economic Burden of Providing Health Insurance: How Much Worse Off Are Small Firms?, 21 An Economic Development Architecture for New Orleans, 20 Education for a New Era: Design and Implementation of K–12 Education Reform in Qatar, 18 Enlisting Madison Avenue: The Marketing Approach to Earning Popular Support in Theaters of Operation, 26 Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States, 26 Estimating the Value of Water-Use Efficiency in the Intermountain West, 19 Europe’s Role in NationBuilding: From the Balkans to the Congo, 23 Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles, 13 Evaluation of the New York City Police Department Firearm Training and Firearm-Discharge Review Process, 31 Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences, 33

D Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century, 9 Design of the Qatar National Research Fund: An Overview of the Study Approach and Key Recommendations, 18 Deterrence—From Cold War to Long War: Lessons from Six Decades of R AND Research, 9 Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations, 14 Developing Senior Navy Leaders: Requirements for Flag Officer Expertise Today and in the Future, 14 Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence—The U.S. Military and Counterinsurgency Doctrine, 1960–1970 and 2003–2006: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 6, 29

F Facing Human Capital Challenges of the 21st Century: Education and Labor Market Initiatives in Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, 7 False Hope: Bone Marrow Transplantation for Breast Cancer, 39 Families Under Stress: An Assessment of Data, Theory, and Research on Marriage and Divorce in the Military, 36 Film Piracy, Organized Crime, and Terrorism, 13 Focus on the Wonder Years: Challenges Facing the American Middle School, 18 Freedom and Information: Assessing Publicly Available Data Regarding U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Security, 35 Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan, 5

E Early Childhood Interventions: Proven Results: Future Promise, 16

Title Index

G Games of Strategy: Theory and Applications, 40 Gender and Health: The Effects of Constrained Choices and Social Policies, 38 Gifts of the Muse: Reframing the Debate About the Benefits of the Arts, 15 The Global Technology Revolution 2020, Executive Summary: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications, 32 The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications, 32 The Global Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Reconciling U.S. National Security and Public Health Policy, 21 Green Warriors: Army Environmental Considerations for Contingency Operations from Planning Through Post-Conflict, 19 H Habitable Planets for Man, 39 Heads We Win–The Cognitive Side of Counterinsurgency (COIN): R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 1, 29 High-Performance Government: Structure, Leadership, Incentives, 37 Hospital-Based Integrative Medicine: A Case Study of the Barriers and Factors Facilitating the Creation of a Center, 21 How Deployments Affect Service Members, 28 How Much Is Enough?: Shaping the Defense Program, 1961–1969, 40 How Schools Can Help Students Recover from Traumatic Experiences: A Tool Kit for Supporting LongTerm Recovery, 18 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida, 6 Human Trafficking in Ohio: Markets, Responses, and Considerations, 31 Hurricane Katrina: Lessons for Army Planning and Operations, 20

I I Want You!: The Evolution of the All-Volunteer Force, 36 Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and GreenhouseGas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use, 19 Improving the Cost Estimation of Space Systems: Past Lessons and Future Recommendations, 27 In Athena’s Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age, 35 In the Name of Entrepreneurship?: The Logic and Effects of Special Regulatory Treatment for Small Business, 16 In Their Own Words: Voices of Jihad, 6 Individual Preparedness and Response to Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, and Biological Terrorist Attacks, 32 Infectious Disease and National Security: Strategic Information Needs, 21 Insurance Class Actions in the United States, 17 Integrating Instruments of Power and Influence, 22 Investor and Industry Perspectives on Investment Advisers and Broker-Dealers, 17 Invisible Women: Junior Enlisted Army Wives, 36 Invisible Wounds of War: Psychological and Cognitive Injuries, Their Consequences, and Services to Assist Recovery, 1 Invisible Wounds of War: Summary and Recommendations for Addressing Psychological and Cognitive Injuries, 1 Iran’s Political, Economic, and Demographic Vulnerabilities, 8 L Leader Development in Army Units: Views from the Field, 14 Learning Large Lessons: The Evolving Roles of Ground Power and Air Power in the Post–Cold War Era, 26 The Legal and Economic Implications of Electronic Discovery: Options for Future Research, 16 Looking Backward and Forward: Policy Issues in the Twenty-first Century, 38

M The Malay-Muslim Insurgency in Southern Thailand— Understanding the Conflict’s Evolving Dynamic: R AND Counterinsurgency Study— Paper 5, 29 Managing Diversity in Corporate America: An Exploratory Analysis, 37 Mapping the Risks: Assessing the Homeland Security Implications of Publicly Available Geospatial Information, 35 The Maritime Dimension of International Security: Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United States, 13 Maritime Terrorism: Risk and Liability, 33 Mathematical Proficiency for All Students: Toward a Strategic Research and Development Program in Mathematics Education, 19 A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates, 40 Misfortunes of War: Press and Public Reactions to Civilian Deaths in Wartime, 28 Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints, 26 Modernizing the North Korean System: Objectives, Method, and Application, 25 Money in the Bank—Lessons Learned from Past Counterinsurgency (COIN): R AND Counterinsurgency Study— Paper 4, 29 More Freedom, Less Terror?: Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World, 7 Moving Los Angeles: ShortTerm Policy Options for Improving Transportation, 3 The Muslim World After 9/11, 24 N NATO’s Air War for Kosovo: A Strategic and Operational Assessment, 25 Networked Forces in Stability Operations: 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq, 24 Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, 35 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking, 28

A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry, 26 O Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues, 20 On “Other War”: Lessons from Five Decades of R AND Counterinsurgency Research, 30 The Operational Code of the Politburo, 40 An Operational Process for Workforce Planning, 37 Organizing for Quality: The Improvement Journeys of Leading Hospitals in Europe and the United States, 38 Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior, 34 An Outcome Evaluation of the Spirituality for Kids Program, 16 P Pacific Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise, 8 Pacification in Algeria: 1956–1958, 30 Pain and Gain: Implementing No Child Left Behind in Three States, 2 Performance Evaluation and Army Recruiting, 36 Perspectives on U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology, 32 Planets for Man, 39 Planning for Diversity: Options and Recommendations for DoD Leaders, 14 Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, 27 Post-Katrina Recovery of the Housing Market Along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, 20 Post-Secondary Education in Qatar: Employer Demand, Student Choice, and Options for Policy, 18 Prebankruptcy Credit Counseling, 17 Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship: Special 50th Anniversary Edition, 39 Preparing the Army for Stability Operations: Doctrinal and Interagency Issues, 27

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Title Index

Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water-Resource Managers: A Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency, 19 Protecting Emergency Responders: Community View of Safety and Health Risks and Personal Protection Needs, 32 R R AND Alternative Strategy Initiative: A Conference on Creative Use of the Media for Understanding and Tolerance, 7 R AND and the Information Evolution: A History in Essays and Vignettes, 4 The R AND History of NationBuilding, 23 Reading for Understanding: Toward an R&D Program in Reading Comprehension, 19 Rebuilding Housing Along the Mississippi Coast: Ideas for Ensuring an Adequate Supply of Affordable Housing, 20 Recruitment and Retention: Lessons for the New Orleans Police Department, 31 Reforming Teacher Education: Something Old, Something New, 18 Reorganizing U.S. Domestic Intelligence: Assessing the Options, 12 Reparable Harm: Assessing and Addressing Disparities Faced by Boys and Men of Color in California, 2 Reporters on the Battlefield: The Embedded Press System in Historical Context, 22 Rethinking Counterinsurgency: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Volume 5, 11 Revitalizing Arts Education Through Community-Wide Coordination, 15 Rhetoric Versus Reality: What We Know and What We Need to Know About Vouchers and Charter Schools, 19 The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey, 7 The Role of the United States Postal Service in Public Safety and Security: Implications of Proposed Relaxation of the Mailbox Monopoly, 13

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Russia’s Chechen Wars, 1994–2000: Lessons from Urban Combat, 25 S Securing America’s PassengerRail Systems, 35 Securing Health: Lessons from Nation-Building Missions, 24 Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, 32 Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth: Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies, 33 Small Ships in Theater Security Cooperation, 27 Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth: Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs, 27 Space Handbook: Astronautics and Its Applications, 39 Space Weapons, Earth Wars, 29 Stabilization and Reconstruction Staffing: Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities, 22 Standards-Based Accountability Under No Child Left Behind: Experiences of Teachers and Administrators in Three States, 17 The State of U.S. Railroads: A Review of Capacity and Performance Data, 3 Stealing the Sword: Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons, 33 Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare, 29 Strategies for Disrupting Illegal Firearm Markets: A Case Study of Los Angeles, 31 Strategies for Improving Officer Recruitment in the San Diego Police Department, 31 Strategy in the Missile Age, 40 Striking First: Preemptive and Preventative Attack in U.S. National Security Policy, 28 Subversion and Insurgency: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 2, 29 Supporting Literacy Across the Sunshine State: A Study of Florida Middle School Reading Coaches, 17 Sustaining Key Skills in the UK Naval Industry, 25

T Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia, 21 Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection, 35 The Thin Green Line: An Assessment of DoD’s Readiness and Environmental Protection Initiative to Buffer Installation Encroachment, 19 Thinking About America’s Defense: An Analytical Memoir, 4 Toward a K–20 Student Unit Record Data System for California, 17 Training the 21st Century Police Officer: Redefining Police Professionalism for the Los Angeles Police Department, 31 Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner, 24 The 21st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace in the United States, 37

What the Army Needs to Know to Align Its Operational and Institutional Activities, 27 Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?, 38 Women and Nation-Building, 22

U Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves, 34 Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs, 3 Understanding Iran, 8 Understanding Proto-Insurgencies: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Paper 3, 29 Ungoverned Territories: Understanding and Reducing Terrorism Risks, 22 The UN’s Role in NationBuilding: From the Congo to Iraq, 23 U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology, 2 V The Victims of Terrorism: An Assessment of Their Influence and Growing Role in Policy, Legislation, and the Private Sector, 16 W War by Other Means—Building Complete and Balanced Capabilities for Counterinsurgency: R AND Counterinsurgency Study—Final Report, 10

Author Title Index Index

A Aaron, David, 6 Abrahamse, Allan, 17 Al-Baddawy, Alison, 11 Ali, Farhana, 5 Anderson, Robert H., 16 Anthony, C. Ross, 24 Anton, Philip S., 32 Arena, Mark V., 25, 27 Arquilla, John, 35 Ashwood, J. Scott, 17 Asimov, Isaac, 39 Aubry, Wade M., 39 Augustine, Catherine H., 15, 18 B Baker, John C., 34, 35 Balakrishnan, Aruna, 35 Balkovich, Edward, 18 Ball, Deborah Loewenberg, 19 Bankes, Steven C., 32 Barnes-Proby, Dionne, 31 Barney, Heather, 17, 18 Bartis, James T., 18, 20, 32 Bate, Paul, 38 Beckett, Megan K., 16 Benard, Cheryl, 7, 22, 24, 25 Bensahel, Nora, 5, 23 Bergamo, Giacomo, 33 Bernstein, Mark A., 20 Berrebi, Claude, 17 Berry, Sandra H., 19 Berwick, Donald M., 38 Bird, Chloe E., 38 Blacker, Nancy E., 14 Blickstein, Irv, 27 Bloom, Gabrielle, 18 Bodilly, Sue, 15 Bohandy, S. R., 32 Bolten, Joseph G., 27 Bonomo, James, 33 Booker, Kevin, 19 Boon, John, 34 Boraz, Steven, 22 Braga, Anthony A., 31 Brancato, Kevin, 27 Brannan, David W., 31 Brennan, Richard R., Jr., 5, 14 Brewer, Dominic J., 18, 19 Brodie, Bernard, 40 Brooks, Arthur, 15 Brower, Jennifer, 21 Brown, Harold, 4 Bucheim, Robert W., 39 Burles, Mark, 26 Button, Robert W., 13, 27 Byman, Daniel, 29 C Camm, Frank, 27 Cannon, Jill S., 16 Carroll, Stephen J., 17 Castaneda, Laura Werber, 36 Castillo, Jasen J., 28 Cecchine, Gary, 20, 21 Chalk, Peter, 13, 21, 22, 24, 29, 33–35 44

Chase, Michael S., 26 Chivvis, Christopher S., 23 Cho, Michelle, 14 Christian, John, 31 Clancy, Noreen, 17 Cliff, Roger, 9, 26 Collins, Rebecca L., 16 Constant, Louay, 7, 18 Cook, Cynthia R., 27 Cordell, Kristen, 22, 24 Coulter, Ian D., 21 Cragin, R. Kim, 22, 33, 34 Crane, Keith, 5, 8, 23, 26 Crego, Al, 17 Crowley, James C., 14 Crown, John S., 36 Cunningham, Karla J., 13 Curry, Kimberly, 14 Curtwright, Aimee, 3 D Dalton, Erin, 31 Daly, Sara A., 33, 34 Darmstadter, Joel, 3 Davis, Lois M., 2, 13, 24, 32 Davis, Lynn E., 20, 32 Davis, Paul K., 14, 27 DeGrasse, Beth Cole, 23 DeJarnette, John, 24 Dertouzos, James N., 16, 36 Dixon, Lloyd, 20 Dobbins, James F., 5, 23, 37 Dole, Stephen H., 39 Dominitz, Jeff, 17 Dresher, Melvin, 40

Gerwehr, Scott, 31 Gifford, Brian, 31 Gill, Brian P., 19 Gilmore, James, 38 Girosi, Federico, 24 Glenn, Russell W., 26, 30, 31 Goldman, Charles A., 7, 18, 25 Goldsmith, Benjamin W., 23 Gompert, David C., 10, 11, 14, 22, 29 Gonzales, Daniel, 24 Gonzalez, Gabriella, 7 Gordon, John, IV, 10, 11, 33 Goulka, Jeremiah, 13 Grammich, Clifford A., 25 Grant, Audra K., 7 Graser, John C., 27 Green, Jerrold, D., 8 Greenberg, Michael D., 19, 33 Greenfield, Victoria A., 18 Gregg, Heather S., 5, 34 Griffin, James, 3, 19 Grill, Beth, 30, 35 Grissom, Adam, 10, 30 Gross, Jennifer, 17 Groves, David G., 19 Guffey, Robert A., 5

F Fair, C. Christine, 24 Farquhar, Cynthia M., 39 Fox, Bernard, 27 Frelinger, David R., 10, 11, 13, 33, 35 Fricker, Ronald D., 33

H Haims, Marla C., 22 Hajiamiri, Sara, 19, 31 Hall, Katharine, 30 Hallmark, Bryan W., 36 Hamilton, Laura S., 2, 17 Hansen, Janet S., 17 Hanser, Lawrence M., 14, 31 Hanson, Mark, 3, 20 Harrell, Margaret C., 36, 37 Hart, Gary, 38 Harting, Sarah, 24 Heginbotham, Eric, 8 Helmus, Todd C., 26 Hensler, Deborah, 17 Hickey, Scot, 35 Hilborne, Lee H., 24 Hilton, Lara, 21 Hiromoto, Scott, 20 Hix, William M., 31 Hoffman, Bruce, 16, 30, 35 Hollywood, John, 24, 34 Hosek, James, 2, 28, 32 Hou, Alexander C., 35 Houser, Ari, 32 Howell, David R., 32 Hung, Angela A., 17 Hunter, Robert E., 10, 22 Huynh, Alexis, 31

G Gabbard, C. Bryan, 12 Gaillot, Sarah, 16 Galama, Titus, 2, 32 Galula, David, 30 Garber, Steven, 36 Garten, Anita Datar, 24 Gassman, Natalie, 32 Gates, Susan M., 16 Gershwin, Daniel, 17, 36

J Jackson, Brian A., 12, 13, 32, 33–35 Jacobson, Peter D., 39 Jaycox, Lisa H., 1, 18 Jenkins, Brian Michael, 34, 38 Jenkins, Michael, 35 Jensen, Carl, 31 Johnson, Dana J., 29 Johnson, David E., 26

E Eaton, Derek, 26, 27 Ecola, Liisa, 3 Edwards, Sean J. A., 29 Eibner, Christine, 21 Eide, Eric R., 18 Eisman, Mel, 27, 35 Elliott, Marc N., 33 Ellison, Marcia A., 21 Emmerichs, Robert M., 37 Enthoven, Alain C., 40 Epstein, Scott, 2 Evans, David K., 25

Johnson, Stuart E., 14, 28 Jones, Seth G., 6, 10, 22–24 Juvonen, Jaana, 18 K Kaganoff, Tessa, 18 Kallimani, James G., 25 Karasik, Theodore W., 5, 22, 24, 34 Karney, Benjamin R., 16, 36 Karoly, Lynn A., 7, 16, 37 Kasupski, Anna-Britt, 16 Kavanagh, Jennifer, 28, 36, 37 Kaye, Dalia Dassa, 5, 7, 21 Kelly, Terrence K., 22, 35 Kent, Glenn A., 4 Khalilzad, Zalmay, 29 Khilko, Ivan, 29, 33 Kilburn, M. Rebecca, 2, 16 Kim, James J., 22 Kim, Julie, 20 Kim, Yool, 27 Kirby, Sheila Nataraj, 18 Klitgaard, Robert, 37 Knopman, Debra, 18, 19 Kofner, Aaron, 3 Koper, Christopher, 31 Krop, Cathy, 17, 18 Kvaerno, Ole, 24 L Lachman, Beth E., 19, 35 Laird, Melvin R., 36 Lal, Rollie, 8, 23, 24 Lambeth, Benjamin S., 25, 27, 28 Landree, Eric, 32, 35 Larrabee, F. Stephen, 7, 23, 24 Larson, Eric V., 28 LaTourrette, Tom, 20, 32, 35 Le, Vi-Nhuan, 15, 17, 18 Lee, Gordon T., 25 Leites, Nathan Constantin, 40 Lempert, Robert J., 19, 32 Leonard, Henry A., 14 Leonard, Robert S., 27 Lesser, Ian O., 24, 35 Leuschner, Kristin J., 16 Levin, Norman D., 8, 25 Lewis, Matthew W., 31 Libicki, Martin C., 6, 10, 11, 18, 28, 33, 35, 39 Light, Paul C., 37 Light, Thomas, 3 Lim, Nelson, 14, 31, 37 Lockwood, J. R., 17 Long, Austin, 5, 9, 29, 30 Long, Duncan, 14 Lorell, Mark A., 27 Lostumbo, Michael J., 13 Lowell, Julia F., 8, 15 Lundberg, Russell, 13 M Ma, Sai, 21 Mack, Katherine, 13 Mackinlay, John, 11 Maestas, Nicole, 16 toll free 877.584.8642

Author Title Index Index

Marcum, Cheryl Y., 37 Marquis, Jefferson P., 37 Marsh, Julie A., 2, 17 Marshall, Andrew W., 29 Martini, Jeffrey, 8 Martorell, Francisco, 17, 18 Masi, Ralph, 27 Matthies, Carl, 13, 31 Mattock, Michael, 18 McCarthy, Kevin F., 15, 20 McCombs, Jennifer Sloan, 2, 17, 18 McFadden, James, 24 McGinn, John G., 23 McKay, Kenneth, 34 Medeiros, Evan S., 8, 9, 26 Mendel, Peter, 38 Miller, Laura, 28 Miller, Louis W., 14 Miller, Michael D., 29 Min, Endy Y., 3 Moini, Joy S., 18 Moore, Melinda, 21 Morgan, Forrest E., 9, 28 Moroney, Jennifer D. P., 5, 22 Morral, Andrew R., 31 Morse, Lindsey K., 18 Mosher, David E., 19, 32 Mueller, Karl P., 9, 28, 30 Mulvenon, James C., 26 N Nadareishvili, Vazha, 18 Naftel, Scott, 2, 17, 18 Najjar, Jihane, 18 Neill, Samuel, 35 Newsome, Bruce, 14, 33 Newton, David, 27 Newton, Elaine M., 32 Nichols, Tiffany, 19 Nixon, Michael, 27 Novak, Jennifer L., 15 O O’Brien, Kevin A., 22, 34 Ochmanek, David, 4, 9 O’Connell, Edward, 7, 10, 11 O’Connell, Kevin M., 35 Oliker, Olga, 5, 22, 25 Ondaatje, Elizabeth Heneghan, 15 Orletsky, David, 35 Ortiz, David S., 3, 33 Overholt, William, 26 Overton, Adrian, 20 P Pace, Nicholas M., 16, 17 Panis, Constantijn W. A., 37 Panitch, Barbara R., 31 Parachini, John V., 33, 34 Paul, Christopher, 22, 26, 35 Pegahi, Negeen, 28 Perlman, Michal, 15 Perry, Walter L., 11 Peters, John E., 22 Peterson, D. J., 18, 20, 32

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Pfleeger, Shari Lawrence, 27, 32 Pierce, Glenn L., 31 Pirnie, Bruce R., 4, 11 Polich, J. Michael, 14 Pollard, Michael, 13 Pollpeter, Kevin L., 9, 26 Poole, Michele A., 5, 27 Popper, Steven W., 25, 32 Preston, Bob, 29 Prine, Deanna Weber, 22 Pung, Hans, 25 Puri, Samir, 25 R Rabasa, Angel M., 7, 8, 22, 24, 29, 34 Radin, Andrew, 23 R AND Corporation, 39 R AND Mathematics Study Panel, 19 R AND Reading Study Group, 19 Rathmell, Andrew, 5, 23 Rattien, Stephen, 18 Resetar, Susan A., 19 Rettig, Richard A., 18, 39 Rhodes, Hilary J., 21 Richardson, Amy, 27 Ridgeway, Greg, 13, 31 Rieker, Patricia P., 38 Riley, K. Jack, 35 Robbert, Albert A., 37 Robert, Glenn, 38 Roberts, Wendell, 31 Robyn, Abby, 2, 17 Ronfeldt, David, 35 Rosen, Brian, 19, 28 Rosenau, William, 29, 30, 33–35 Ross, Karen E., 19 Rostker, Bernard D., 31, 36 Rough, Jill, 20 Runkle, Benjamin, 5 Russell, Jennifer Lin, 2, 17 Ryan, Gery, 18, 21 S Salem, Hanine, 7, 18 Savych, Bogdan, 28 Schaefer, Agnes Gereben, 20 Schank, John F., 25 Schell, Terry L., 31 Schelling, Thomas, 38 Schelling, Thomas C., 4 Schirmer, Peter, 14, 36 Schonlau, Matthias, 17, 33 Schultz, Dana, 2 Schwartz, Lowell H., 9, 24 Scott, Lynn M., 37 Seong, Somi, 8, 25 Setodji, Claude Messan, 15 Shannon, Brian, 3 Shaw, Rebecca, 16 Shea, Molly, 17 Shipbaugh, Calvin, 29 Shukiar, Herbert J., 14 Shukla, Paraag, 29

Sickle, Peter, 24 Silberglitt, Richard, 32 Simpson, Erin M., 33 Sisson, Melanie, 33 Sloss, Elizabeth M., 17 Smallman, Laurence, 25, 27 Smith, K. Wayne, 40 Smith, Raymond, 11 Snow, Catherine, 19 Snyder, Diane, 34 Sollinger, Jerry M., 14, 24, 27 Sood, Neeraj, 21 Sorensen, Paul, 3, 20 Spirtas, Michael, 4 Stahl, Dale, 7, 30 Stasz, Cathleen, 18 Stearns, Brooke K., 10, 22, 23 Stecher, Brian M., 2, 17 Steele, Brett, 23 Stein, Bradley D., 18 Steinberg, Paul, 13, 35, 36 Sullivan, Thomas, 5 Suvankulov, Farrukh, 17 Swanger, Rachel M., 23, 24 Szayna, Thomas S., 22, 27 T Talley, Eric, 17, 18 Tanielian, Terri, 1, 18 Tanner, Murray Scot, 26 Teltschik, Richard, 23 Temple, Donald, 24, 33 Thaler, David E., 5, 24 Thruelsen, Peter Dahl, 24 Thurston, Cathryn Quantic, 22 Timilsina, Anga, 23, 24 Timpane, Michael P., 19 Tita, George, 31 Toffler, Alvin, 35 Toffler, Heidi, 35 Toman, Michael, 3, 19 Treverton, Gregory F., 12, 13, 22, 28 Trujillo, Horacio R., 34 Tseng, Michael S., 35 Tunstall, Ellen E., 22

W Wachs, Martin, 3 Wainfan, Lynne, 19 Wang, Mark Y. D., 18 Ware, Willis H., 4 Warner, Lesley Anne, 29 Weatherford, Brian A., 3 Wehrey, Frederic, 5, 7, 8 White, John P., 29 Williams, Elizabeth, 31 Williams, John D., 40 Willis, Henry H., 3, 19, 33, 35 Wilson, Bradley, 35 Wilson, Jeremy M., 31, 35 Wintemute, Garen, 31 Wolf, Charles, Jr., 8, 25, 38 Wong, Anny, 13, 19, 27, 32 Wu, Felicia, 32 Y Yoh, Allison, 3 Yost, Charles, 35 Younossi, Obaid, 5, 27 Z Zakaras, Laura, 15, 17 Zanini, Michele, 35 Zellman, Gail L., 15, 18 Zeman, Laurinda L., 20

V Varda, Danielle M., 14 Vernez, Georges, 17 Vick, Alan J., 30 Vogelsang, Ingo, 17 Vuollo, Mirka, 17

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A fast, hassle-free way to bring the latest public policy research immediately to your patrons is to take advantage of our standing order subscription program. Available in four formats—to suit your library’s subject requirements and budget—these programs bring you RAND’s cutting-edge research, immediately upon release, without the time-consuming paperwork of individual book orders. All RAND monographs • Includes approximately 120 RAND books and reports per year: monographs, technical reports, conference proceedings, occasional papers Within the United States: $1,550 Outside the United States: $1,850 Social Science monographs • Includes approximately 50 RAND books and reports per year in the social sciences: monographs, technical reports, conference proceedings, occasional papers Within the United States: $895 Outside the United States: $1,095 International Policy and Military Affairs titles • Includes approximately 100 RAND books and reports per year in international policy and military affairs: monographs, technical reports, conference proceedings, occasional papers, plus research briefs and documented briefings. Within the United States: $1,295 Outside the United States: $1,495 All RAND Publications • Includes approximately 200 RAND books, reports, and other publications per year: all those in “All RAND monographs” plus research briefs, dissertations, documented briefings, testimonies. Includes a monthly CD/DVD with all new titles in electronic format with permission for internal institutional use.

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