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UNITED FRONT? TURBULENCE AHEAD FOR AIR WAR The skies over Syria became more crowded last week after the UK voted to join air strikes against Isil forces. But can countries with very different attitudes to the conflict agree on common aims?

Analysis by Fyodor Lukyanov

© RIA NOVOSTI

T

he terrorist attacks in Paris and Sinai, and Russia’s earlier decision to get involved in the Syrian Civil War, have raised the stakes in that regional conflict considerably. Already the international efforts in the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil) are involving new external (and not necessarily regional) actors. Last week alone, the United Kingdom and Germany joined in, although neither had previously demonstrated an enthusiasm for direct involvement. What should we expect? Is an anti-terrorism coalition really being formed? Hardly.

The main problem is that the objectives and tasks of those who form this coalition do not coincide. The situation is a paradoxical one, however: despite the huge differences in the approaches of the external players (notably the United States, France, Russia and the UK), they identify the main enemy in similar terms. This is seen to be Isil, which should be eliminated or at least stopped. To fulfil this task, active assistance from the regional players – those inside Syria and in the Middle East as a whole – is needed. In theory, they should be carrying out the main military action.

REGIONAL PLAYERS But it turns out that their priorities are different. For Turkey, the main threat is the Kurdish issue, which they perceive as far more dangerous than Isil; so far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, its main fear is that of Iranian Shia expansion rather than of the threats posed by Isil militants; Iran is engaged in a complex regional game, with Isil being just one element; Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not just facing the radical Islamists but a very wide range of opponents.

The other countries in the region are desperately trying to maintain control over the situation at home, so they have to manoeuvre all the time. And they do not always see Isil as their worst enemy. This state of affairs practically rules out a truly broad coali-

In a unipolar world, wars fought “for the sake of peace”, that is, wars not aimed at achieving specific and clear goals of one’s own, were waged only by the US with support of its allies. Moscow, having started the military operation in Syria, has changed the alignment of forces and prospects for resolving a major international conflict, with no real practical gains for itself. This is a prerogative of those at the top of the military and political league, who are capable of setting an agenda.

Another important factor is that the conflict in Syria is likely to end the era of a “humanitarian and ideological” approach to resolving local crises. Until recently, an important element of the discussion about sectarian conflicts consisted of such accusations as crimes against one’s own people and the ruthless suppression of protests. A leader who was accused of such behaviour was put in the category of rulers who had “lost their legitimacy”, which made any dialogue with them either unnecessary or unacceptable. That is what happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, and Bashar al-Assad was next on the list. However, now it seems that the humanitarian component is once again giving way to a realistic approach. The black-and-white division into good and bad guys results in a deadlock, and bargaining will have to involve everyone.

tion. But it does create an unpleasant prospect for the external players. Everybody realises and admits that Isil cannot be defeated without a ground operation. The idea is that a ground operation should be conducted by Middle East players, all the more so since the countries of the region invariably condemn “colonialists”for any interference. However, if they do fight, they will be fighting not against terrorism but against each other, which cannot be allowed to happen. So there may be a need for a deeper military involvement on the part of Russia, the US, France and others. Having said that, everybody knows what risks are associated with direct interventions in the Middle East.

MOSCOW’S MOTIVATION Russia has many motives for its involvement in Syria.

The main motive, of course, is the threat of the unchecked spread of terrorism. Another has to do with relations with the incumbent Syrian government, which is Russia’s long-standing partner. Last summer, it became clear that the resources of the ruling regime were close to exhaustion. The Assad regime had turned out to be much more resilient than the West thought it would be back in 2011, but a war of attrition is not something that any country can easily cope with. The fall of Assad would be seen by all as a major setback for Moscow. There were other motives at play, too. For instance, the desire to expand the field of the conversation with the West, which for the past two years was all but limited to the topic of Ukraine and the Minsk process.

At the same time, it is important to view Russia’s actions in a more global context. Moscow has claimed a right, which in the previous 25 years (since the war in response to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990-91) exclusively belonged to the US. The right to use force to restore international order is the function of a so-called “world policeman”.Russia has entered a sphere where issues of hierarchy are addressed.

OPEN-ENDED NEGOTIATIONS

Moscow has made a claim to a right, which in the previous 25 years exclusively belonged to the US

One important new element in resolving the Syrian crisis are the talks in Vienna. This is the second (after the marathon of the Iran nuclear talks) instance of open-ended negotiations, when the format of a settlement should emerge in the course of discussion rather than being signed in advance, leaving the sides to debate ways of achieving it. No one knows now what Syria will be like after the war, and in this case this is a good thing. Clearly, there is no guarantee of success, but conceptually it is a more sound path.

Unfortunately, the acute Russian-Turkish conflict

caused by the downing of the Russian warplane last month was a serious blow to the tentative settlement process that was taking shape in Vienna. Russia has neither the desire nor the resources to wage a lengthy campaign in Syria.

Moscow’s interest in a political solution is as strong as that of the other players. Now, however, a political solution must take into account the fact of a considerable Russian military presence in Syria. It is hard to imagine that the Kremlin will be willing to give up the military infrastructure it has created there so quickly, just like the United States did not fully withdraw from Afghanistan once the mission there was over.

POLITICAL SHAKE-UP Russia has a tricky balancing act to perform. First, it has to ensure its future geopolitical presence in Syria, irrespective of the configuration of the authorities there. Second, it must avoid doing any damage to its developing relations with Iran, a major regional partner for the future. For Tehran, preserving the current regime in Syria is essential: it rightly believes that any change will become fatal for Iran’s dominance in Syria. The Syrian saga is perhaps the only topic that cements these relations; in all the other respects, Tehran is viewing Russia with doubt.

Third, Russia must make sure not to turn into a great power that is serving Iran’s regional interests, the way, for example, the US for a long time served the interests of Saudi Arabia.

However, the escalation of the past several weeks and the growing scale of events leads to another alarming conclusion. This is no longer just about Syria; this is about the future of the region as a whole. Any settlement in Syria is impossible, therefore, without a political shake-up of the Middle East as a whole.

And that is a far larger task, which is fraught with far bigger risks. But it has to be said that these days, Russia is clearly not afraid of risks.

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Can Isil carry out threat to launch attacks on Russian soil?

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Terror North Caucasus is revealed as the weakest point as security services focus on the hunt for cells and recruitment centres ALEXEY TIMOFEYCHEV RBTH

On the eve of the Paris attacks last month, Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil) published a video in Russian: “Soon, very soon,” it said, “there will be a sea of blood.”

Security experts believe that Isil is a real threat to Russia. On 31 October, a Russian plane carrying tourists home to St Petersburg from Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh was blown up by a terrorist bomb, killing all 224 on board. Evidence first made public by the United Kingdom’s security services suggests that Isil was responsible, and the terrorist group later published photographs of a bomb in a soft drinks can that it claims was used to destroy MetroJet Flight 9268.

A further six Russian citizens died on 20 November, when terrorists linked to the group attacked a hotel in Mali.

And although Isil has so far only hurt Russians abroad, Russia has a turbulent history with its own Muslim regions in the south, and is itself not immune to major terrorist attacks.

“Penetration into our territory is very possible,” says Sergei Goncharov, president of the International Association of Veterans of the Alpha anti-terror squad.

However, according to the Russian Interior Minister,Vladimir Kolokoltsev, even in light of recent events, the threat should not be blown out of proportion. “We have sufficient experience in reacting to such challenges and threats,” he says.

Weak points Russia’s weakest security points are the Northern Caucasus and the southern borders of the former Soviet republics, where the fear is that Muslims disillusioned with mainstream society will look to extremists for answers.

Of the country’s 16.5 million Russian Muslims, Isil may have up to half a million sympathisers, according to Alexei Malashenko, chair of the Carnegie Moscow Centre’s Religion, Society and Security Programme. In an essay published on the centre’s website, Mr Malashenko said some Russian Muslims might be averse to terrorism, but were seeking a Muslim-centric form of government.

“It is an appealing idea, when contrasted

with Russia’s economic crisis, corruption and growing inequality.” Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said in September it had evidence that around 2,400 Russians were fighting for Isil alongside nearly 3,000 citizens of Central Asian countries.

The North Caucasus has long been a region of unrest, with the roots of its current insurgency going back to the 18th century. The most recent conflicts flared after Chechnya declared independence from Russia in 1991, provoking the First Chechen War (1994-96). A cease-fire lasted until 1999, when the Second Chechen War began.

Militant links

Open borders threaten CIS After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the borders between what were once republics but now independent states became relatively open.

Open borders helped facilitate migration at a time of economic flux.

However, with the rise of the terrorist threat in the 21st century, open borders in Russia – like those in Europe – are also an open invitation to arms smugglers and those intending acts of terror and violence.

By early 2000, Russian forces had retaken the capital city of Grozny and regained direct control of the republic. In 2009, Russia officially ended its anti-terrorist operation, although lowlevel insurgency continued in the region, notably in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan.

Terrorist attacks throughout Russia have been attributed to radical Islamists from the North Caucasus, including the Russian apartment bombings in 1999; the Moscow theatre hostage siege in 2002; the Beslan school incident in 2004; the 2010 Moscow Metro bombings; and the Domodedovo International Airport explosion in 2011. At least 849 people were killed in these attacks alone.

Experts link these Northern Caucasus militants to Isil, though there is no direct evidence Isil itself was responsible for the attacks. About a year ago, Isil announced it intended to “liberate” Chechnya and the Caucasus, to create an Islamic Caliphate. Now, according to Mr Goncharov,“even the leaders of small gangs in the Caucasus have sworn allegiance to Isil”.

Meanwhile, Russian security forces have created a system for countering terrorism in this region. Ivan Konovalov, head of Moscow’s Centre for Strategic Affairs, points out that in Dagestan, where not long ago there were monthly explosions and shootings, there have been few terrorist acts for the past two years.

Local gang eliminated In late November, Russian law-enforcement agencies eliminated a local gang affiliated with Isil in the North Caucasus. The special operation on 22 November in the Kabardino-Balkar Republic by FSB officers resulted in the deaths of 11 militants, the largest number killed in recent months. The gang was allegedly assisting local people who wanted to fight alongside Isil by helping them travel to Syria, as well as

Ready for action: Russian special forces in training for anti-terror operations

GLOBALLY SPEAKING GOING EASTWARD

Terror plots foiled At the National Anti-Terrorist Committee (NAC) meeting in mid-October 2015, FSB head Alexander Bortnikov said that Russian special services had prevented a total of 20 terrorist crimes this year. “One of the most recent examples was the detaining of 12 Russian citizens in Moscow on 11 October who are members and accomplices of the international terrorist organisation [Isil] and were preparing a terrorist act on public transportation,” said Mr Bortnikov, who is also head of the NAC. Investigators said that “the terrorist act was to take place with the aim of destabilising the country’s authorities, as well as stopping Russian operations against Isil in Syria”.

Observers believe that from now on, the efforts of special services will be aimed at finding terrorist cells and recruitment centres, which are expanding outside predictable zones.

It is no an accident that Isil chose to strike Russia not at home, but abroad, by downing a plane in Egypt. Within Russia itself, the Islamists cannot count on any serious support, but they can be sure of one thing – that Russia will mobilise all its forces to counter any domestic attacks.

In the end, experts say, Russia is not a very convenient enemy for Isil, and this threat – while real – should not be overestimated.

Mr Fenenko thinks that Isil’s main aims are tied to the possible destabilisation of Turkey, which in turn would disrupt the entire Caucasus and strengthen Isil in Afghanistan.

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NEWS IN BRIEF FROM RBTH.CO.UK Four injured as explosive device is thrown at bus stop in central Moscow VALERY SHARIFULIN / TASS

At least four people were injured when an improvised explosive device was thrown at people waiting at a bus stop in Moscow city centre. Police have described it as an act of “hooliganism”.

Three people were taken to hospital after Monday’s blast, on Pokrovka Street, which is about a mile from Red Square, a spokesman for the Russian capital’s health department said.

“The reports indicate that four people were injured as a result of the incident. Three of them were admitted to the Sklifosovsky Emergency Medicine Institute,” the health department spokesman said.

One of the three injured people admitted to

plotting terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus. The special services in the Caucasus and the governments in each republic are prioritising the prevention of terrorist acts, says Mr Konovalov. “Isil also understands that if they do something large-scale, the governments of the Northern Caucasus will immediately start crushing them from all sides.”

Security services and border controls in countries such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan leave much to be desired, Mr Goncharov believes. However, Russia does not share a border with these countries, and its longest border – with Kazakhstan – is well-guarded and closely watched.

Also, before reaching the southern borders of Russia, the militants would have to cross parts of Turkey, Armenia and Georgia, according to Alexei Fenenko, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of International Security. “This is not as easy as it seems,” Mr Fenenko says.

ENGAGING THE WEST

hospital has already been discharged, meaning that two injured people are still being treated at this clinic, the spokesman added.

Another person who was injured in the blast, which took place late on Monday evening, was given medical care at the scene and refused to be taken to hospital, the spokesman said.

“Preliminary information indicates that an improvised thunderflash thrown from a passing car or from a window of a multi-storey building could have caused the explosion,” according to Andrei Galiakberov, a Moscow police spokesman.

Law enforcement agencies have said that the explosive device is thought to have have contained the equivalent of 50 grams of TNT.

Women take part in tests simulating flight to Moon

US partly lifts helicopter maintenance sanctions

Percentage of Russians who speak English doubles

Six young women from Moscow’s Institute of Biomedical Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences spent nine days and nights in a hermetically sealed capsule completely isolated from the outside world.

The Academy experiment was intended to simulate conditions on a flight to the Moon.

As part of the Moon-2015 project, Russian scientists studied the mechanisms that a human body uses to adapt to an isolation capsule, tested equipment for the International Space Station, and studied the psychology and physiology of the female body during a long space mission.

During the project, about 30 experiments were conducted, the findings of which will be processed by researchers over the next few months.

Of particular scientific interest is a comprehensive analysis of data – how the respiratory, cardiovascular, immune and other systems reacted to the isolation capsule.

Results from an earlier study carried out on male students will also be analysed.

The US has lifted sanctions imposed on technical maintenance performed by Rosoboronexport on multi-purpose Mi-17B-5s helicopters, which were supplied to the US to be transferred as military aid to Afghan security forces. The decision was published in the US Federal Register.

The document states that restrictions will be lifted on the procurement and supply of spare parts, as well as on performing corresponding maintenance work. The decision will be valid for two years after the document is signed, unless the Secretary of State changes the term beforehand. The decision does not affect contracts, products or services that the US sanctioned on 2 September 2015.

“It is very likely that Afghanistan exercised some pressure on the US in this case. The Afghans need helicopters and maintenance service, not sanctions,” says retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, editor-inchief of the Russian military-industrial newspaper Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kurier.

Two contracts for the supply of Mi-17 helicopters (33 and 30 machines respectively) were fulfilled between 2011 and 2014. The American government was unhappy about the purchases of Russian military technology and the large volumes of the orders. The Pentagon was accused of investing in the defence industry of a potential enemy instead of ordering from American producers.

Instead of the Russian machines, the American helicopter lobby suggested supplying Chinook heavy transport helicopters. The Pentagon eventually chose the Russian helicopters because Afghan pilots and technicians were used to the model and a change of aircraft could have led to big problems in using the fleet, including frequent accidents. “In Afghanistan’s difficult climatic conditions, the Mi-17s are irreplaceable,’’ the helicopter’s makers claim.

Nearly a third of Russians (30pc) speak English to some degree; 20pc can read and translate using a dictionary; 7pc are familiar with colloquial language; and 3pc are fluent speakers, according to a poll by the research company Romir.

Only 16pc of respondents claimed to speak English in 2003, and 3pc of them were assumed to be fluent speakers, the experts said. The second best-known foreign language in Russia is German.

A total of 6pc of present-day respondents say that they speak German (the figure was 7pc in 2003), and about 1pc are fluent speakers (the figure was the same 12 years ago).

The percentage of Russians who speak French has not changed either (1pc). Another 1pc said they spoke Spanish (the percentage was close to zero in 2003) and 1pc speaks Arabic.

No more than 0.5pc of respondents speak any other languages, the analysis said. A total of 70pc of 1,500 respondents interviewed across Russia said that they spoke no foreign language at all. The figure stood at 76pc in 2003.

English was the main contributor to the rise in the knowledge of foreign languages, Romir says. Most English speakers live in the country’s north-west.

PRESS PHOTO

© ALEXANDR POLYAKOV / RIA NOVOSTI

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War in Syria wins public support – but will it last?

Public opinion The Kremlin’s military operation in the Middle East is backed by most Russians. But what do ordinary people know about the conflict? RBTH asked researchers to investigate how the action is seen and whether views have changed since Russian air strikes began

Public announcements by Isil leaders and figures from Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, and other radicals at the time of the first attacks, did nothing to displace the crisis in south-eastern Ukraine from top spot in the Russian media.

“When the Federation Council received a request to permit the use of armed forces abroad, and when it became clear that it was only Syria, the first reaction was – paradoxically – relief,”Yekaterina Schulmann, of the Institute of Social Sciences at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told RBTH. “We were afraid of a new aggravation of the Ukrainian front; for us it would have been much scarier. It was my own reaction, and of many other people on my friends page in Facebook.”

YEKATERINA SINELSCHIKOVA RBTH

On 30 September, Russia began military operations against radical Islamists in Syria. Not more than five hours passed between the moment President Vladimir Putin received unanimous parliamentary backing for air strikes and the first attack by the Russian air force.

Sociologists say the speed with which military action was launched left ordinary Russians reeling. People in focus groups said things like: “We do not know what to think about this, we have no information.’’

But within a couple of weeks, Russia’s two major public opinion pollsters – VTsIOM and the Levada Centre – gave a snapshot of national attitudes. They found most Russians approved of the campaign as a whole. But what do Russians really know about this conflict?

Televised war The war in Syria has been shown on Russian television screens for four long years. Just a year ago, the war was an irrelevant topic for the Russian population and, among those who still followed it, more than half did not support any of the parties to the conflict.

No one seriously thought about the deadly threat posed by Isil terrorists. Some of the respondents, who had a vague idea of what was happening there, even named them as possible allies in geopolitical games, says Levada’s expert Stepan Goncharov.

“This situation persisted until the end of this summer, when information about the transfer of troops to the Russian base in Syria was leaked to the media,” he said.

Support maintained Two serious incidents had the potential to significantly change public opinion against Russian participation in the Syrian campaign. On 31 October, a terrorist bomb brought down a Russian charter flight over Egypt’s Sinai desert with the loss of all 224 people on board

– mostly Russian. Islamic State media outlets said the attack was a response to the Kremlin’s decision to go to war in Syria. Then, on 24 November, Turkish air force fighter shot down a Russian Su-24 military jet for – as Ankara insists and Moscow denies – violating Turkish airspace. One pilot was killed by Turkmen rebels in northern Syria after parachuting from the stricken warplane; the navigator was later rescued in a Russian military operation.

In fact, even after these events there was very little change in overall levels of support for the Kremlin’s policy in Syria,VTsIOM says.

According to its poll on 3 December, 62pc of respondents approve of Russia’s actions in the region and 27pc even think military actions should be increased. Only 11pc oppose the campaign.

THE NUMBERS

62

pc of Russians back military action and air strikes in the Syrian conflict

Positive view Many view the Russian operation in Syria as positive, as it has proved to be a path back to dialogue with the West and a way out of isolation. President Vladimir Putin has also won support from those who lament the loss of Russia’s influence in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“If Russia had not entered the Syrian conflict, and Assad – our last ally – had fallen, Russia would simply not have participated in the politics of the 21st century,” says Maxim Shevchenko, a journalist and member of the Human Rights Council under the President of the Russian Federation.

“Someone who is not involved in the Middle East game does not participate in world politics at all. It is a unique region, which also has both sacred and economic significance. Non-engagement in the region automatically defines a country as a thirdrate power.”

Backers of the Syrian campaign include those who are ready to go to war “for justice’’ in any part of the globe, whether it is Syria or Ukraine.

“What’s the difference, Syria or Novorossiya [eastern Ukraine]? There is mayhem going on both here and there, and somebody has to stop it,” Igor Uglich, a volunteer planning to go to Syria and who was also involved in fighting in eastern Ukraine, told RBTH. The Russian Ministry of Defence rarely comments on the number of Russian volunteers in Syria.

27

pc believe that Russia should go further and increase its military action in the region

11

pc are opposed to the Kremlin's policy in Syria and think the military campaign should be stopped

Casualty concerns

EPA/VOSTOCK-PHOTO

Televised conflict: a Russian student watches a TV news report on the Syrian conflict. Most Russians back their country’s action but heavy losses could change the picture

places: on the internet and in the mosque.”

He adds that Varvara Karaulova’s story suggests that Russia underestimates the threat of Islamism. “The most amazing thing is that everyone – her family, her friends – was indifferent; no one noticed anything until she disappeared.”

Fatal attraction of the fundamentalist fringe Radicalisation Recent case shows vulnerability of young Russians to radical Islam OLEG EGOROV

In the first week of June, Russian media was gripped by the story of Varvara Karaulova. A 19-year-old philosophy student at Moscow State University, Ms Karaulova suddenly disappeared, reappearing in Turkey. Her family said she had left Russia to join Isil in Syria. She was detained by Turkish border guards when she and several others tried to cross the border to Syria illegally.

The case not only seemed to epitomise the problems the country faces in its fight against Islamist extremism, but it also served as an alarming reminder that it is not only Russia’s Muslims that are at risk of falling victim to fundamentalist recruiters.

Ms Karaulova had grown up in a secular Russian family, was fluent in English and French, and studied Middle Eastern culture and Arabic at Moscow State University. But then something changed in her behaviour: she started wearing the hijab and reading books on radical trends in Islam.

After her interlude in Turkey, Ms Karaulova was eventually deported back to Russia and released. On 28 October she was arrested and detained on suspicion of trying to recruit others to the Islamist cause.

Her story is not an isolated case.

According to the FSB (Russia’s security service), over the course of 2015, recruiters from extremist groups have attracted more than 1,700 Russian citizens to their ranks.

Some experts say the number is much higher. The majority of those are people from the country’s Muslim republics, but they also include ethnic Russians.

This is not just a Russian problem, says Georgy Mirsky, an expert on the Arab world. “[Earlier this year, in one] month alone, 1,733 people left France to join Isil, and statistically, one fifth of them did not come from Muslim families but were recruited.”

What is forcing young people, who grew up largely in secular western families, to change their outlook so radically and join terrorist groups such as Isil? Russian psychologist Pavel Ponomaryov is convinced that the problem lies in an existential crisis that many young people are experiencing.

“If we speak about Karaulova, we see that she tried to commit social suicide – that is, she attempted to completely divorce herself from the society in which she lived and find a new identity in a different world,” he says.

“Students and other young people are going through a crisis: society is not giving them a chance to express themselves, [and is] imposing harsh restrictions. The urge to free oneself from this society and obtain everything and immediately in a different system is so great that people are practically ready to give their life for it.”

Mr Mirsky shares that view, comparing the popularity of Islamic extremism to the situation in the Thirties, when large swathes of Europe’s young people were drawn to extremism of various shades.

“There aren’t any fascists or real communists today,” he says. “However, against the background of the dullness of everyday life, there is a big new movement – radical Islam. Recruiting happens in two

CIHAN / BARCROFT MEDIA / TASS

Divorce from society

CO N V E RT I N G M O N O LO G U E S I N TO D I A LO G U E

Routes to radicalisation

This is not a new phenomenon: even as far back as the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan during the early Eighties there were cases of ethnic Russians converting to Islam and going over to the side of the Mujahideen to fight against their former comrades.

SPECIAL TO RBTH

However, despite the high numbers that approve of the Russian intervention, many Russian citizens do not understand the intricacies of Middle East politics and do not even want to understand.

“The situation in Syria and its various Islamist trends… it’s just not interesting to them,” says Leonty Byzov, a researcher in the Institute for Comprehensive Social Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

He adds: “But they believe that Putin understands better, and if it is supported by the [Russian upper house] Federation Council, then it’s probably right.”

At the same time, the public and the media share considerable concerns about how far Russia can go in Syria. Fears that involvement will lead to major Russian casualties remain high. “Russian society has a sore point connected with the Afghan trauma, and, in a broader sense, with memories of the Second World War,” Ms Schulmann believes.

She adds: “As soon as there is the risk of human losses, attitudes deteriorate sharply.

Society is ready to rejoice at a manifestation of military and foreign policy power, but we are not ready to pay for it.”

The Russians neither see the Syrian war as a sacred cause, in which they must triumph at all costs, nor the Syrian people as brotherly, the sociologists conclude.

Radicalised: Varvara Karaulova after her arrest in Russia

Despite the growing popularity of extremism among secular youth, the main audience being targeted by terrorists – Isil in particular – is Muslim. According to an interview with an Isil preacher published by the news website Meduza in May, “no less than 1,500 people, half of them Dagestani and half Chechen, from the North Caucasus are fighting for Isil”. Dagestan and Chechnya have largely Muslim populations.

Varvara Pakhomenko, a specialist on the Caucasus and consultant with the International Crisis Group NGO, says there are three main reasons for the popularity of radicalism among Muslims: dissatisfaction with the government, unfair policing, and close links with the Middle East.

“If people feel it’s impossible to improve their situation, many Muslims begin to think that justice can be obtained only if secular government is replaced by the Caliphate, which functions according to Sharia [Islamic law],” she explains.

Excessive zeal on the part of Russian law-enforcement bodies also fosters resentment. “When people are persecuted because they wear long beards or attend the ‘wrong’ mosque, the result is usually radicalisation, even of moderate Muslims,” adds Ms Pakhomenko.

“In the past two-and-a-half decades, the ties between the Middle East, Syria in particular, and the Caucasus have greatly strengthened. That is why many people in the North Caucasus take what is happening in the Middle East to heart and are attracted to radical movements.”

There has also been a spate of incidents involving teenagers from British Muslim families believed to have gone to fight in Syria. Ironically, despite the fanfare against Isil, the most recent conviction was that of 18 year-old Londoner, Silhan Ozcelik, found guilty at the Old Bailey on 20 November of attempting to join the PKK, a Kurdish terror group which is fighting Isil in Syria.

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Why rouble crisis has a silver lining for Sochi Tourism Currency meltdown gives Miami-style resort a competitive edge as prices fall BRYAN MACDONALD SPECIAL TO RBTH

Oddly enough, for Sochi – and some other Russian resorts – the rouble crisis has been a blessing in disguise. After the Kremlin spent £30bn transforming the city from a run-down Soviet relic into a Miami-style showpiece, there were fears that Sochi could be a Black Sea white elephant; a monument to government hubris.

But the new exchange rates that made foreign travel so expensive were a boon to Sochi. For those with hard currency, beers that cost £4 were now the equivalent of £2 and you no longer felt you had to remortgage your flat to buy a fillet steak.

At the same time, the south of France and the Costa del Sol bemoaned the absence of free-spending Russian visitors.

Sochi remains a relatively high-end destination. However, at the other end of the scale, Crimea’s tourist industry faced an uncertain future. Now largely cut off from traditional markets in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and elsewhere in eastern Europe, there were serious concerns that its once-famed resorts would decline. For many Russians, it carried a stigma as an old-fashioned Soviet-era retreat. That wasn’t far off the mark – Yalta in 2014 wasn’t very different from Yalta in 1989.

Two decades of neglect had created a housing shortage and public transport was in an appalling condition. Buses were hot and overcrowded, and schedules difficult to understand. When I visited in 2013, a modest hotel room – two-star by European standards – was more expensive than a comfortable four-star in Varna or Antalya.

A Yalta taxi, a beaten-up 30-year-old Lada, cost the equivalent of £3 for a short hop from bus station to beach.

Crimea’s trump card was its breathtaking landscapes and nature. Nevertheless, even lower middle-class Muscovites preferred Turkey, Bulgaria and Egypt, which had modernised their infrastructure while Crimea stood still, mired in staggering corruption. Then the rouble crisis intervened and Crimea was suddenly cheap, even when compared to budget foreign options.

After Crimea returned to Moscow’s control, frantic efforts began to upgrade everything to modern standards, a process that will take many years. That means improved roads, refurbished hospitals and a £600m overhaul of Simferopol airport. This year the peninsula attracted four million

Year of living dangerously: the Russian economy turns a corner Economic crisis After a year of unprecedented economic turmoil, the country is in calmer waters but there are still challenges ahead GETTY IMAGES

DARIA LITVINOVA SPECIAL TO RBTH

In the wake of sharply declining oil prices, a rouble that almost halved in value and the imposition of economic sanctions, many believed 2015 would witness a default in Russia like that of 1998, with banks collapsing, inflation going through the roof and ordinary people facing catastrophe.

Those fears were not realised. Russia’s economy took a battering and real incomes were bruised this year, but as 2016 comes into sight, the economy has started to slowly pick up again.

“Quarterly evaluations show that the recession, as it is defined, is over,”Alexei Ulyukayev, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development, said at a meeting with European diplomats in Moscow last month.

Foreign experts echoed his statement: the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) reported 0.5pc growth in the third quarter after almost four quarters of decline, and predicted that growth would continue. But Russian analysts remain cautious, warning that the crisis is not over yet and that there’s a long road ahead for the economy to get back to where it was in the late 2000s.

Financial future: the Moscow-City business centre is still partly under construction

Rough time for rouble

A weaker rouble prompted rising prices and inflation. People’s real incomes sank significantly, which led to a drastic drop in demand for bank services. In the first six months of 2015, the residential mortgage market dropped by a total of 40pc, and banks earned eight times less from issuing loans than in the same period in 2014. With the Central Bank withdraw-

Elvira Nabiullina

roubles bought you one dollar a year ago. Today, you need about 70

2 pounds: price of a beer in Sochi – half of what it cost before the crisis

32 per cent: annual increase in number of tourists visiting Crimea

SPECIAL TO RBTH

Sparkling Christmas decorations line the shop windows of GUM, central Moscow’s exclusive mall overlooking Red Square. At Louis Vuitton, a middle-aged woman eyes a beige hat with a price tag of 24,100 roubles (£240). Don’t they have something with a more prominent Louis Vuitton monogram? she asks the shop assistant.

Rich Russians have a reputation for being brand addicts, but the country’s luxury market has not had it easy this year. With the economy now showing signs of fragile recovery after a year in recession, the Kremlin has presented the economic crisis as an opportunity to boost Russian manufacturing. But with no domestic alternatives to western luxury brands, such as Chanel or Cartier, the premium market has had no choice but to continue to import, despite a doubling of costs in rouble terms.

Retailers are absorbing some of those costs, hitting their margins.

The luxury clothing sector is expected to contract by 20pc-25pc this year to £1.7bn, down from £2.1bn last year, according to the Fashion Consulting Group (FCG). For the industry, it is like stepping into a time machine and travelling back to the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.

Compared to its mid-market competitors, however, the luxury clothing sector has

Storm damage

A native of Ufa, Bashkortostan, and a graduate of Moscow State University, Ms Nabiullina was a former chairperson of the Centre for Strategic Development. She served as Minister of Economic Development and Trade from 2007-2012, before being appointed head of the Central Bank of Russia in 2013 – the first woman to hold that position.

35

EVA HARTOG

It’s too early to judge whether Russia’s economy will continue to grow – the results of the fourth quarter will not be available for a while yet, and Russia’s economy remains dependent on oil prices – meaning a breakthrough is only possible if they rise, he says.

“If there is no ‘help’ from the outside world, our economy might grow, but this will be much slower than that of the world economy,” Mr Miroshnichenko says. “We’re at the bottom of an abyss and right now we are very slowly crawling out of it.”

Mr Bragin sees room for a bit more optimism.“I think we have come to a point of economic restoration. Even taking the rate of inflation into account, companies have started earning more money. I believe next year the dynamics might surprise us,” he says.

Yet the damage the economic storm has done is obvious. According to a World Bank report in late September, the number of Russians living below the poverty line in 2015 reached 14.2pc – compared with 11.2pc in 2014.

“It is the first significant rise in the number of poor in Russia since 1998-99,” according to the report.

Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin believes the Russian government needs to tackle structural reforms – such as raising the pension age, cutting public spending and reducing support for state-run companies – if it is to avoid further trouble.

“After the crisis, the economy will face stagnation, because there haven’t been any structural reforms. That’s the most serious challenge that the president faces: stagnation of the economy for the next five years,” Mr Kudrin said during a round-table event devoted to the 15th anniversary of Vladimir Putin first being elected president in March.

THE NUMBERS

Designer labels still a must-have at twice the price

© ILIA PITALEV / RIA NOVOSTI

Mortgage slump

PROFILE

Cold comfort: the rouble crisis has been a blessing in disguise for Sochi resort Krasnaya Polyana

tourists, up by 32pc on 2014. The local minister of resorts and tourism, Sergey Strelbitsky, predicts five million in 2016 as facilities are enhanced.

In Sochi’s case, it’s not just summer tourism. The Winter Olympic facilities at Krasnaya Polyana were once subjected to western media ridicule. That may have seemed reasonable when Russians showed far more interest in ski resorts in Switzerland, Austria and even Bulgaria.

Krasnaya Polyana was caught in a double bind – too expensive for budget tourism and not prestigious enough for the high-flyers.

Now, thanks to the weak rouble and plenty of positive reviews, the venues are largely fully booked this winter. By the end of November, bookings were up by 30pc on the previous year. Internal tourism, traditionally underdeveloped in Russia, is mushrooming. The trend even extends to city breaks. Instead of spending their money in London or Paris, provincial Russians now go to Moscow and St Petersburg.

Muscovites and residents of St Petersburg have been discovering the delights of places such as Kazan, Yaroslavl and Krasnodar.

Of course, there have been losers. Airline Transaero collapsed in debt and the travelagent sector has suffered. The high cost of foreign holidays for Russians created a grim situation. And the terrorist bombing of a Russian plane over Egypt and downing by Turkey of a Russian military jet has all but ended package tours to those two countries.

Nevertheless, compared to December 2014, the end of 2015 seems likely to be rather more positive for Russians. But don’t expect wild celebrations – Russians take everything in their stride, the highs and the lows.

Luxury sector Wealthy untroubled by rising cost of expensive imported goods

Future challenges

GETTY IMAGES

Currency hardships began in December 2014, the second “Black Tuesday” in the country’s history, when the rouble fell 41pc against the dollar and 34pc against the euro.

The Central Bank of Russia, the financial regulator, reacted quickly – and at the time controversially – by raising its key interest rate to 17pc from 10.5pc, eliciting outrage from politicians and public figures.

The regulator “shot dead the Russian economy, to spare its suffering,” oil giant Rosneft’s spokesman Mikhail Leontyev said at the time.

Within a couple of months, currency rates had stabilised, though with oil prices having fallen from around £50 a barrel in November 2014 to less than £30 in August 2015, euro and dollar exchange rates stubbornly remained almost twice those of mid-2014. The euro was worth 70 roubles compared with 46 and the dollar more than 60 roubles instead of 35.

Yet it didn’t get worse, thanks to the Central Bank’s policy, according to Alexander Abramov, an investment expert at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. “The bank acted vigorously, and the fact that we have a relatively stable currency rate and a moderate inflation rate we can credit to them,” he said, adding that another Black Tuesday this year was highly unlikely.

At the same time, the Central Bank could only do so much, given the circumstances and condition the country’s economy was in facing sanctions and low oil prices, says Vladimir Bragin, chief analyst at Alfa Capital.

ing licences of small banks almost every month, ordinary Russians feared for their savings and depositors rushed to withdraw cash from their bank accounts. The dreades word“default”reentered the Russian vocabulary.

But fears were overstated. When S&P issued its report with positive numbers in November, officials announced that Russia was out of recession. The report reflected a growing confidence that Russia’s fiscal managers had successfully negotiated the crisis. By September, Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina had even been named best head of a central bank in 2015 by Euromoney magazine.

Ms Nabiullina, according to the magazine, fought the “macroeconomic storm” by implementing “moderate policies” – raising the key interest rate, carrying out measures to strengthen the rouble and giving financial institutions access to additional liquidity. Euromoney concluded that Ms Nabiullina’s economic “therapy” had worked.

Dmitry Miroshnichenko, an expert at the Centre for Development Institute of the Higher School of Economics, agrees. He says that the Central Bank stabilised the situation and is now in control.

© NINA ZOTINA / RIA NOVOSTI

The price is right: shoppers at GUM are happy to pay more

weathered the storm well: its market share in 2015 remained constant at 10pc, FCG said. With the buying power of wages down roughly 10pc over the past year, middle-class Russians on a payroll have shunned mid-segment retailers in favour of budget clothing stores.

But most wealthy Russians weren’t fussy about the price tag to begin with. A saleswoman at Louis Vuitton said that the shop was quieter than in previous years, but that a loyal core of a dozen or so wealthy customers continued to visit regularly.

Even when items were cheaper overseas, they preferred to purchase them in the Moscow shop because of the “comfort of buying at home”, she said.

Up to 75pc of the luxury sector’s turnover traditionally comes from “old” and “new money” – the Russians who were born rich, or those who have climbed the social ladder, says Anna Lebsak-Kleymans, CEO of FCG. “Their consumption behaviour does not change significantly in times of crisis as the majority have a diversified income, part of which could be in a foreign currency.”

What the luxury clothing sector is suffering from is an outflow of sporadic buyers – highly paid professionals and casual customers – but they constitute a minority, Ms Lebsak-Kleymans adds.

The spending habits of Russia’s elite spreads beyond the country’s borders.

Russian spending abroad dropped dramatically this year, with a 41pc year-on-year fall in September, but Russians still constitute the third largest group of tax-free shoppers, mainly because rich Russians continue to buy, according to the tax-refund company Global Blue.

Russia’s car sector, once one of Europe’s most promising markets, shows a similar trend. The car industry has been among the sectors worst hit by the economic downturn – sales fell by almost 40pc in 2015, according to figures from the Association of European Businesses. But Porsche, which has its largest Europe-based dealership in Moscow, saw a 26pc increase in sales in the first three quarters of the year. Toyota also sold 6pc more Lexus cars, and Bentley opened its third dealership in Moscow in the spring – with Russians reportedly figuring strongly in pre-orders for its opulent Bentayga SUV, which sells for around $220,000 (£147,000) in the US. A further drop in luxury spending seems unlikely; this year has already seen the rich trim the fat off their wish lists. At Moscow’s exclusive TsUM department store, a woman clad in fur insists she has been forced to cut back. “Just down to the essentials,” she says, pointing to three extralarge bags filled with luxury-brand clothes for her six-year-old grandson.

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Spaceport is looking to the stars Cosmodrome Russia’s ambitious project to build one of the world’s largest spaceports has endured scandal and delay, but the end is now in sight with its first launches due this spring ALEXANDER BRATERSKY SPECIAL TO RBTH

On 15 December, British astronaut Timothy Peake, Russian cosmonautYuri Malenchenko and Nasa astronaut Tim Kopra will be launched into the skies above the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan for a 173-day mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Their journey will begin in a Russian Soyuz TMA-19M launch module that will take them into orbit.

Most of the launches by the Russian space agency Roscosmos – from communications satellites to supply ships for the ISS – leave from Baikonur. Russia pays Kazakhstan $115m (about £76m) a year for the use of the former home of the Soviet space programme. In 2004, the presidents of the two countries signed a deal extending the agreement until 2050.

TheVostochny Spaceport, which is now under construction in the Amur Region of Russia’s Far East, was supposed to bring the country's space launches home. Building began with a great fanfare in 2011 under President Dmitry Medvedev, who made space one of the top five priorities in his national modernisation programme.

Space industry officials have high hopes for Vostochny Spaceport – both for its potential to bring back some of the glamour and glory that was associated with the Soviet launches from Baikonur, and to be a reliable source of income from commercial launches.

Vostochny will become the main launching pad for Russia’s new Angara heavy booster rocket, the replacement for the ageing Proton cargo ship. Once a world leader in launching commercial payloads into space, the Proton has suffered a number of serious accidents, including one explosion broadcast live on national television during a much-hyped launch.

Before the problems with Proton, Russia was one of the leading players in commercial launches, earning more than £500m in 2013 from them, according to a report by the US Federal Aviation Administration released in 2014. The figure fell to £186m in 2014 because of the problems associated with Proton.

With the modern Angara rocket, Russia wants to boost its commercial activity, and the global demand is there. Private companies and foreign governments alike are interested in finding a reliable partner to send satellites into space.

However, even at full capacity, the Vostochny site will only have two launch pads that can be used by Angara rockets, and the likely demand will mean that Russia will still need access to the Baikonur Cosmodrome.

Overcoming challenges The building project atVostochny, which involves building 10 pads for both manned and unmanned launches, is a major engineering challenge.

Today, however, construction is behind schedule and President Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that the situation is unacceptable. During a visit to the site with a group of senior space officials in October, Mr Putin ordered launches to begin by Cosmonauts Day, next April.

“The atmosphere was like they all were visibly shaken since they were not prepared to make the first launch in December as planned,” said one junior member of the delegation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

“Even the interior of the building where a meeting with the president took place was not finished; there were a lot of things here and there.”

Aiming high: a launch pad at Vostochny under construction in October. The first rockets are scheduled to take off in April

© SERGEY MAMONTOV / RIA NOVOSTI

Heavy booster rockets

There’s room to grow in the Wild East

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The selection of the site for the Vostochny Spaceport was no accident. Space historian and documentary filmmaker, Yury Salnikov, says the Far East was judged to be suitable partly because “it is still a wild place as far as infrastructure and population are concerned’’.

Officials hope that the spaceport might prove an attractive place to

work for young scientists and engineers who could bring new life to the region.

An online search for “Vostochny” shows “job vacancies” among the first results. According to Yury Vlasov, acting head of the United Space and Rocket Corporation, the Russian space industry will need more than 110,000 engineering graduates

in the next 10 years, primarily at Vostochny.

Mr Salnikov also says Vostochny’s proximity to China is one of its main selling points.

While China has its own space ambitions, there is scope for co-operation with Russia.

The countries have already discussed plans for a moon station to be organised from Vostochny.

Vostochny has also been plagued by accusations of corruption. A total of 20 criminal cases have been opened into thefts related to the site, and more than 220 officials have now been implicated.Yuri Hrizman, the former head of the state construction agency Dalspetstroy, is facing criminal charges for alleged corruption and embezzlement of funds.

Future payoff Charles P Vick, senior space policy and technology analyst at GlobalSecurity.org in Washington, said that Vostochny’s potential was still unknown. He added: “Russia will continue to need both spaceports for future requirements for crewed space missions, or they will be limited to operating out ofVostochny in spite of what is suggested.”

VIEWPOINT

Living history and shades of the Soviet era ALINA POROSHINA SPECIAL TO RBTH

Baikonur was the first cosmodrome in the world and it is still the largest. It was from here that the first rocket, with the dogs Belka and Strelka aboard, was launched.

Yury Gagarin became the first human in space after launching skyward from here.

Embarking on my own trip to Baikonur Cosmodrome, I had to write so many letters and send so many requests to so many different government offices for permission

Cosmodromes: a legacy of exploration and innovation

that all the joy of the trip nearly evaporated. Every step had to be coordinated; approvals obtained for each minor detail of my visit – and my mobile phone never stopped ringing.

On the way to Baikonur, we flew for just over three hours. The view did not change for the final hour of the flight. When we landed on the steppe, an employee from the security service of the cosmodrome was there to greet us. We went through many security checkpoints. Finally, we reached the entrance to the city. A wistful camel stood at the gate. As soon as we got through the security checkpoint, to the left and to

In Baikonur, there are stories about the first Russian rockets, the cosmonauts and the people who made the first launches happen

Although the first launches will probably take place as scheduled in the spring, Mr Vick said that it would take years to finish the development of the launch pad. He added: “The payoff is in the future, not yesterday. The construction is a shot in the arm for the modernisation of the space industry, but what is also needed is the overall modernisation of industry infra-

structure and quality control and processes.”

Scandals aside, theVostochny spaceport is one of the biggest construction projects on Earth.

With a workforce numbered in thousands, a brand new science town, Tsyolkovsky, and more than 140 miles of new roads,Vostochny represents the Russian state’s desire to maintain a role as one of the world’s great space powers.

the right, green trees began to flash in view, as if we had entered a new climate zone.

The city still has one foot in the Soviet Union. It is seen in everything – the central market, the signs, the lack of 24-hour cafés.

Half of the city is dressed in the same uniform. They all work at the cosmodrome.

In Baikonur, everyone tells stories about the first Russian rockets; the cosmonauts. Here at Baikonur there are those who worked alongside the ingenious Soviet designer Sergei Korolev.

These are the people that made Russia’s first space launches happen.

So many of the world’s most important space launches took place at Baikonur. It was from here that Earth’s first man-made satellite was launched. Among the many aircraft sent from here were the manned spacecraft series Vostok, Voskhod and Soyuz; the Salyut space stations; Mir; the reusable Energia–Buran system;

interplanetary spacecrafts and scientific and military satellites. To this day, Baikonur is among the world leaders for launches per year.

My guide, Tatiana, worries about the future. “You know, I am 43,” she says. “And I don’t know what’s ahead. Everything is here. My whole life is here. I understand that no one will take us there – to Vostochny.

I don’t know what will happen to us.

Although they have said that they won’t give up on Baikonur until 2050…” She thinks of relocating to the distant Amur Region and starting all over at another place in the middle of nowhere.

There is an extraordinary pitch-black sky over Baikonur. And there are extraordinary people working there, too, people who lit up, and still light up, the stars of Russia’s space story.

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ART OF DIPLOMACY

WHY DONALD IS MOSCOW’S TRUMP CARD IN US PRIMARIES

Tackling climate change – the Russian contribution

Bryan MacDonald INTERNATIONAL ANALYST

Alexander Yakovenko AMBASSADOR

T KONSTANTIN MALER

If the Kremlin could vote in the US Presidential primaries, it would probably back Donald Trump. However, in the real world things are more complicated. What does the election season mean for US relations with Moscow?

Casual observers could be forgiven for imagining America has a semi-permanent election cycle. With around 13 months to go before Barack Obama leaves the White House, it already feels like the campaign has dragged on for an eternity.

Bill Clinton remains popular in Russia. Rightly or wrongly, he is perceived as having been less hostile to the country than his successors, George W Bush and Obama. His wife, Hillary, is now the bookmaker’s odds-on favourite to become America’s next president.

However, Hillary is not Bill, and times have changed. It’s impossible to imagine the former Secretary of State laughing and joking with Vladimir Putin as her husband used to with Boris Yeltsin. Hillary is regarded as a hardliner on Russia. She has criticised Obama’s handling of the Ukraine crisis and proposed stronger measures to support Kiev. The Iron President?

Of course, Clinton’s position might be preelection bluster, designed to cast her as a strong figure. Hoping to become the first woman president, Hillary probably feels that she has to appear even tougher than her male opponents.

She’s borrowing from the playbook of Angela Merkel and Margaret Thatcher, two phenomenally successful female leaders. The Kremlin fears a new Clinton presidency would be far more hawkish than Bill’s administration.

Trump believes that ‘Putin has eaten Obama’s lunch’ over Ukraine

Nato expansion Marco Rubio heads the betting to win the Republican nomination. The 44-year-old Florida senator is potentially even tougher on Russia than John McCain, a tormentor of Putin’s government. Rubio, who has strong links with the Tea Party movement, has even won support from former McCain donors such as George Seay and Jim Rubright, according to Fox News.

In May, Rubio wrote a Politico op-ed in which he called for further Nato expansion, including the accession of Ukraine.The Kremlin would welcome that like it would greet snow in July.

Indeed, a Nato attempt to expand to Ukraine could conceivably lead to war in Europe. In spring, Russia’s envoy to the alliance, Alexander Grushko, told Tass that“Moscow will take all measures, including military-technical, to neutralise [the] possible threat from [a] Nato presence in Ukraine”.That was in response to the notion of Nato sending military advisers to east Ukraine. Most Russia-watchers agree that should full membership be proposed, Moscow’s reaction would be less than pleasant.

Jeb Bush is pushing Rubio all the way, in what looks like a three-horse race with Donald Trump for the Republican nod. Bush views

Vladimir Putin as a bully and has called for larger troop deployments to the Nato Baltic states. This would fuel Russian paranoia. Because of its history, Russia is suspicious of attack from their western borders.

Then there’s Trump himself. The surprise package of the race was originally viewed as a kind of comedy candidate. Nobody’s laughing now. While odds-makers continue to price him the outsider of the three, the majority of Republican voters consider him the best candidate for the November 2016 election.

Trump believes “Putin has eaten Obama’s lunch” on Ukraine. “Putin has no respect for our president whatsoever,”Trump also told Fox, the go-to network for Republicans. “He’s got a tremendous popularity in Russia, they love what he’s doing, they love what he represents.”

He told a press conference in Scotland:“I’d get along very well with Vladimir Putin”.

Some US allies in Europe might be alarmed at a President Trump’s warm feelings towards Russia. This doesn’t seem to bother him.“When Europe comes to us and says, ‘We want your help, we want your help,’ but they’re not really doing that,”Trump argued.“They’re dealing with Russia, they’re taking in the gas, they’re taking in the oil – they’re not really doing that.

And you know, we’re making a big deal out of it.”Trump also believes that Crimea is Europe’s problem and that the US has no role to play.

In aggregate polling, only Ben Carson threatens Trump. Hailing from economically moribund Detroit, the neurosurgeon is no foreign policy expert. In March, he told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that “we need to convince [the Baltics] to get involved in Nato”,seemingly unaware that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were already members. Obviously, the

Kremlin would prefer that Carson was right.

Clinton’s only realistic rival for the Democratic nomination appears to be Bernie Sanders, the 74 year-old senator from Vermont. A self-styled democratic socialist, he has been a consistent critic of US foreign policy and has described the National Security Agency (NSA) as being“out of control”.While that might suggest he is more amenable to Russian interests than Clinton, he has strongly supported Obama’s policy of anti-Russian sanctions.

Electoral bogeyman?

Of course, the real voting doesn’t start until February, when Democrats and Republicans will begin their primary seasons. This time eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was almost 30 percentage points ahead of Barack Obama, according to Gallup (50pc v 21pc). Obama later took the Democratic nomination and eventually the presidency. At the same time, Rudy Giuliani enjoyed an average 12-point lead at the top of Republican polls over Fred Thompson.

Ultimately, John McCain was selected.

If Russia’s rulers could vote, they’d probably back Trump for the Republicans and anybody but Hillary on the Democrat ticket. The Kremlin’s worst nightmare would be a Clinton-Rubio battle. In such a contest, Russia would make a convenient whipping boy for their foreign policy tussles. Worryingly for Moscow, ClintonRubio remains far likelier than Trump or any Democrat alternative to Hillary. Thus, Russia could find itself used as an electoral bogeyman. It could be a long year.

Bryan MacDonald is a Moscow-based Irish journalist who focuses on Russia’s role in international geopolitics.

OLD ALLIES CAN STAND AGAINST NEW FASCISM

Tim Lewin SPECIAL TO RBTH

I have worked for the past 28 years in international economic development.

Before I came to Russia in 1992 I covered Indonesia. There, my opposite number from the Indonesian government would listen attentively to all I had to say on strategy and development and, at the end of each homily, he would say: “Then what?”

The votes on Syria are counted, the decision taken, the first missions carried out.

The remit of the British armed forces (the RAF anyway) has been extended. Then what?

My late father, Admiral of the Fleet Terry Lewin, was a Chief of the British Defence Staff. While visiting Australia and New Zealand in 1982, he received the news that the Falkland Islands had been invaded by Argentina. Flying back, he had time to think.

He recalled the debacle of Suez in 1956.

Then, a hastily taken decision by the British government of the day resulted in a mission in which the armed forces were badly let down; let down by the absence of any policy to back up the military intervention. No one had thought to ask: “Then what?” He was determined not to fall into this same trap.

Arriving back in Britain, he was shown into the Downing Street Cabinet Room where Margaret Thatcher and her senior ministers were waiting. “Prime Minister, you are going to need to establish a clear objective to this campaign,” he told them.

“Here is one I have prepared for you”.

No one knows how long this war will last but of one thing we can be pretty sure: there will be losses.

We must be prepared for them

The objectives were immediately adopted; “Then what?” was answered.

Subsequently, the relationship between the combined military under his comand and the Government ran along clearly defined lines of responsibility, desired outcomes crystallised as policy.

I am not a military person; I am a professional businessman and amateur historian. As a historian I have learnt from the global conflicts of the past century a few object lessons. The first, a prerequisite in any modern conflict, is gaining air supremacy.

No force can succeed in a ground war if the enemy controls the air. Yes, the carpet bombing of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia only forced the other side underground, but there is much more to modern air supremacy than tipping thousands of tons of bombs indiscriminately out of high-flying aircraft.

Precision attacks from the air on specific military targets are a world away from this.

However, it’s not enough for what passes as the “Allied coalition” to engage in this most dangerous of pursuits without proper and effective combined leadership. The loss of a Russian military aircraft recently, while perhaps revealing a deep-seated problem between Russia and Turkey, can best be described as a friendly fire incident. This should never happen again. The enemy has no air power; the only aircraft over Syria are fighting for the same cause.

In the past, there have been countless examples of close working partnerships with Russia at the military level regardless of political tensions. In Parliament, the Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn described Isil in Syria as fascist: he was right. To Russians, this term triggers a massive resonance with the Second World War, when 27 million Russians gave their lives to defeat European fascism. To be

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reunited with old allies against this latest global menace is an opportunity for rapprochement that we should not miss.

For the past decade or more, the British embassy in Moscow has helped send a group of old soldiers from Russia to meet their British counterparts to celebrate VE Day. These old men would be the first to tell their modern leaders to get their act together and instil a better command structure to get the job done as quickly and effectively as possible. There can be no “them and us” in this situation, whatever our differences. We are once again allied with the Russians in a noble cause; we need to make it work.

Another lesson learnt from my father was that there is a heavy price to pay for any military intervention. After presenting Mrs Thatcher with the clear objectives for the Falklands conflict, the PM turned to him and asked: “Terry, can we really do this?” He replied: “Yes, but you must be prepared for losses.” Losses in Syria, losses to our “Allied forces” will be the very first “Then what?”of this conflict.

Russia has already experienced losses; so have our Arab allies in the battle for Syria.

No one knows how long this war will continue but of one thing we can be pretty sure: there will be losses. Now as then, we must be prepared for them.

To die fighting the enemy is one thing; to be killed fighting each other is something else entirely. Even more, when victory is ultimately won, and the world asks, “Then what?” we’d better be sure – all of us – that we have the answers.

Tim Lewin is an organiser and consultant for major financial, cultural and arts projects in Russia and Ukraine and the UK Honorary Consul for development in Crimea.

EUGENE ABOV PUBLISHER, VSEVOLOD PULYA CHIEF EXECUTIVE EDITOR, VIACHESLAV CHARSKIY EXECUTIVE EDITOR OF WESTERN EUROPE, ILYA KROL EDITOR, UK EDITION, ALEXANDRA GUZEVA ASSISTANT EDITOR, NICK HOLDSWORTH GUEST EDITOR, OLGA DMITRIEVA ASSOCIATE EDITOR (UK), PAUL CARROLL SUBEDITOR, SEAN HUGGINS SUBEDITOR, ANDREY SHIMARSKY ART DIRECTOR, MILLA DOMOGATSKAYA HEAD OF PRE-PRINT DEPARTMENT, ANDREI ZAITSEV PHOTO EDITOR E-PAPER VERSION OF THIS SUPPLEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.RBTH.CO.UK TO ADVERTISE IN THIS SUPPLEMENT CONTACT SALES@RBTH.COM

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he world’s climate and weather patterns are changing. Global temperatures are rising, causing more extreme weather events, such as flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is one of the gravest challenges humanity faces today. The potential threat of these global processes remains a tangible one.

The world’s attention has been focused for the past two weeks on the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris.We are experiencing a pivot where we should shift from words to constructive solutions, recognising there is a trend to the worsening effects of global climate change.

The event gives us a unique opportunity to address this challenge by achieving a new climate agreement based on the principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Russia is taking active measures to address global warming, including the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation; Presidential Decrees – on measures to improve energy and ecological efficiency and “On the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions”; the Federal Law on Energy Conservation; and the 2030 Energy Strategy of Russia. We have more than fulfilled our obligations under the Kyoto Protocol.

Through the implementation of our Energy Efficiency and Energy Sector Development programme, we managed to improve our economy’s energy efficiency by a third over the period 2000-12, and we expect to reach a further 13.5pc improvement by 2020. The fall in Russian emissions since 1991 has stopped 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere. These improvements are achieved through the use of breakthrough energy-saving solutions, such as nanotechnologies, as well as the introduction of regulatory measures.

Russia supports the world community’s longterm goal: to keep global warming within an increase of 2C by the end of this century. In Paris, we are advocating a new, comprehensive and legally binding agreement for the period after 2020. Such an instrument should unite the efforts of all countries and in particular those with the highest emission levels. The new agreement should reflect the important role of forests as the main absorber of greenhouse gases. This is particularly important for Russia, which has immense forest resources.

Not all countries are fully prepared to take efficient emission-cutting measures. That’s why it is important to support the efforts made by developing countries to reduce their harmful emissions. Russia will provide financial and other assistance to these countries, using the relevant mechanisms of the United Nations.

Developing countries should be treated on a fair basis. We cannot ignore changes in environmental, economic, political and technological development of the world, the increased level of their GDP, etc. At the same time, Russia does not reject the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”but believes that they should be reflected in a single international legal accord.

Finally, a strategy to tackle climate change efficiently is impossible without proper research.

For this reason we have put forward an initiative that involves holding a United Nationssponsored scientific congress on the exhaustion of natural resources and the deterioration of human habitat. This will allow global warming to be placed into a broader environmental and social context.

These measures are not somehow “a platter of climate-friendly platitudes”as sceptics may put it. Russia has already proved that it has met the Kyoto Protocol goals. The stakes are high. As the planet’s temperature is rising, it is obvious that uncontrolled climate change could cause irreversible impacts on both the human population and the environment. Dealing with the disastrous consequences will be much harder and dearer. We hope that common sense will prevail and a new post-Kyoto agreement will be reached by consensus.

Keep in touch with the Russian Embassy in London on these social networks: www.twitter.com/Amb_Yakovenko www.twitter.com/RussianEmbassy www.twitter.com/RussianEmbassyR (Russian version) www.facebook.com/RussianEmbassy www.youtube.com/RussianEmbassy www.slideshare.net/rusemblon www.flickr.com/photos/rusembassylondon russianembassy.livejournal.com

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Special Report www.rbth.co.uk_Wednesday 9 December 2015_P7

Offshore oil industry hit by sanctions and falling prices ALEXEI LOSSAN

THE NUMBERS

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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin has admitted Moscow has been too slow to find alternative supplies of equipment for offshore oil production. He believes it needs to co-operate with other countries with suitable experience to develop fully its energy resources, Interfax news agency reported.

American and European companies that have traditionally been partners with Russian energy firms in the Arctic are prohibited from providing such services under sanctions imposed on Russia for its role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

As a result, Russia must develop such technologies on its own, or look for new partners from Asian countries unaffected by sanctions.

At the moment, however, the price of oil has made exploration in the Russian Arctic less attractive for any potential partners.

“The development of offshore fields has been stalled not only by sanctions, but also by a sharp drop in oil prices,” says Ilya Buturlin, managing director of trust management company Hedge.pro.“With the current state of the energy market, expensive development in the Arctic is simply unprofitable.”

21.5 billion tons of oil are estimated to lie in blocks of Arctic territory in the Kara and Pechora seas controlled by Russian oil giant Rosneft

7 billion dollars − amount invested by Royal Dutch Shell in developing an exploratory well in the Chukchi Sea. The project has been hit by protests and bad weather

MAXIM VORKUNKOV / TASS

Oil exploration Russia struggles to find partners with the technological expertise to help develop its energy resources

Work halted When sanctions were first imposed in 2014, Russian oil major Rosneft, in partnership with American firm ExxonMobil, had just discovered the Pobeda oil field in the Kara Sea and drilled a well.

After the introduction of sanctions, however, ExxonMobil had to suspend its participation in the project, which caused major difficulties for the Russian firm.

“Offshore drilling equipment has never been produced or even designed in Russia,”said Georgy Vashchenko, head of operations at Freedom Finance Investment Company.“For its production and use to be economically viable compared to imports, it must be produced in large quantities, including for deliveries abroad.”

However, according to Pyotr Dashkevich, an analyst with investment company UFS, the impact of sanctions on the development of

Small Siberian lakes are big factor in global warming Climate change Scientists discover pools in thawing tundra permafrost and seas of western Arctic are major source of greenhouse gases YANA PCHELINTSEVA SPECIAL TO RBTH

Researchers at Tomsk State University in Siberia have been studying the subsoils of the West Siberian subarctic for decades. The focus of their work has been thermokarst lakes – bodies of water formed by permafrost thawing that are sources of carbon dioxide. They have recently begun to grow rapidly: in some areas, their coastlines have shifted by 210ft in two or three years.

“The peat transforms into carbon dioxide

the fastest while in water,” says Sergei Kirpotin, the head of Tomsk State University’s BioKlimLand research centre.

“Over 80pc of subarctic Siberia is covered by thermokarst lakes, but the scale of the carbon dioxide flow still has not been evaluated and neither has the chemical composition of the water.”

The scientists found that lakes with a surface area of less than 1,000sq ft, which are virtually undetectable by satellites, emit several times more greenhouse gases than bigger lakes. There are millions of these tiny lakes in the tundra and they were not taken into account by carbon-exchange models until recently.

Because of the thawing of permafrost in West Siberia, scientists fear the bigger thermokarst lakes could soon break up into many smaller ones. “This could lead to a

offshore fields is not as significant as the effect of the fall in oil prices.

“Many of the projects announced were attractive due to high energy prices. Now that the price of oil has fallen, the situation has changed,” Mr Dashkevich says.

He also notes that many contracts with western partners had been signed before sanctions were imposed and, accordingly, do not fall under the restrictions. Nevertheless, almost all of these projects have been delayed or abandoned, because they are no longer profitable.

Urals crude price At the beginning of 2015, Russia’s Ministry of Industry drafted a plan for import substitution in the oil and gas industry, but even according to this document, the share of imported equipment for offshore projects can be reduced to 60-70pc only by 2020 – so Russia

Methane monsters An even more serious problem is caused by the processes that occur within the Arctic continental shelf. Scientists at Tomsk Polytechnic University have been studying these changes and note that emissions in the form of methane and carbon dioxide are already having a significant impact on the Earth’s climate.

“Five years ago we discovered that the massive methane emissions in the seas of the western Arctic are about two times larger than emissions in all the world’s oceans,” said Igor Semiletov, a geochemist at the Pacific Oceanological Institute and Tomsk Polytechnic University.

In 2014, an international research team led by Mr Semiletov became the first to examine closely the waters of the outer West Arctic continental shelf at depths below 150ft. The scientists found carbon emissions there were much more intense than expected. Up to several hundred ounces of methane per square yard were emitted daily, which shows the underwater Arctic permafrost has been severely

Disappearing sea ice makes all planning guesswork SPECIAL TO RBTH

For modern science, the phenomenon of global warming is not a hypothesis but an acknowledged fact. The most important evidence of this warming in the Arctic region is a reduction in the area of sea ice. For example, if you compare the sea ice area in September of this year with the indicators from just a decade ago, it becomes clear that

the ice area has decreased substantially.

On the one hand, this change stimulates commercial interest in the Arctic region, since it is cheaper to transport goods on the ice-free water. On the other hand, this water causes land loss, eroding the shoreline.

This warming also causes the permafrost to retreat. This is a real threat that we cannot avoid taking into account when we are talking about the construction of new infrastructure in the Arctic.

Our organisation has already been approached by investors who would like to construct a railway in the subarctic regions of

is unable to really consider going it alone to develop these Arctic resources.

“Before the introduction of sanctions, Russian companies had co-operated with the American, Norwegian and Italian suppliers, but now China and South Korea are also being named among potential partners,” says Mr Buturlin.

He also explains that companies such as General Electric are now ready for the localisation of individual equipment for Russian offshore drilling vessels, but there is no demand so long as the price for Russia’s benchmark Urals crude remains low.

Mr Dashkevich says that companies from Europe and the US remain the most interesting for Russian firms as partners because they have the experience of working in the Arctic.

Although Asian companies may “be interested in supplying equipment and providing subsequent maintenance”,they are likely to have had only “local experience”, he adds.

tenfold increase of greenhouse gases and dissolved organic carbon emissions into rivers and the Arctic,” says Mr Kirpotin.

COMMENT

Sergei Chicherin

Over a barrel: low oil prices mean Russian firms cannot attract partners for exploring Arctic oil reserves

Yakutia. Projects like these have been designed for decades, but what will conditions for work be like here in 50 years?

We are trying to answer questions like these, but we cannot have a clear understanding of the climate of the future.

We can only talk about possible scenarios of climate change – and try to prepare, to adjust ourselves to these changes. Mankind is yet not able to regulate the natural processes at this scale.

Sergei Chicherin is a deputy director of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.

TATIANA POSPELOVA

Testing the water: small lakes in Siberia are releasing large amounts of methane

degraded. About 700 such “methane holes,” each up to half a mile in diameter, have been found in the shelf.

“We are finding more and more evidence confirming our hypothesis about the leading role of the Siberian continental shelf in changing Earth’s methane balance at the present time and for at least the past 400 years,” said Mr Semiletov.

Roscosmos to build space service centres in Arctic to communicate with satellites IGOR ROZIN RBTH

The Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) does not only look to the stars.

The agency recently revealed that it is expanding a project “to promote the development of the Arctic zone”.

Roscosmos plans to use the frozen northern region to set up a range of new space service centres to receive and process data from remote-sensing satellites to aid exploration of the Arctic region. “Centres for handling Earth data from remote-sensing

satellites will be built in the Krasnoyarsk Territory (Dudinka) and the Chukotka Autonomous District (Anadyr),” the agency said during a press presentation.

Similar space service centres have been established in the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, the Republic of Komi, as well as the Yamal-Nenets and KhantyMansiisk Autonomous Districts, all Russian regions close to the Arctic Circle.

In August, two Russian space companies signed an agreement with Iran for the joint development of a remote-sensing satellite system, due to be launched in 2018.

Culture P8_Wednesday 9 December 2015_www.rbth.co.uk_THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA

The Cold War spy who invented the world’s strangest musical instrument Inventive: Léon Theremin in 1919

Theremin remained in the United States for 11 years, juggling his time between highlevel industrial espionage and further developing and refining his invention at a laboratory near his home in New York

Revival: Takeuchi’s ensemble

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strument, oscillating somewhere between the high-pitched fragility of a soprano and the rich texture of a cello’s A string.

Early in the theremin’s development, some people believed the instrument would eventually replace entire orchestras. Although this ambition was never quite realised, listening to the instrument’s multiplicity of sounds, it’s easy to imagine the enthusiasm for such an idea. As one early reviewer said:“The human voice, the violin, viola, cello, bass and double-bass, the cornet, horn, trombone, saxophone, organ, and almost every instrument you can think of, are all beaten at their own game by this one simple little apparatus.”

Despite Theremin’s predictions of worldwide ubiquity for his two-pronged musical marvel, the instrument proved to be difficult to master for most people and soon fell into obscurity. Its enduring appeal was subsequently relegated to obscure horror movies, owing to the particularly eerie effect that sustained notes can produce. The composer Miklós Rózsa pioneered the use of the theremin in several Hollywood scores of the Fifties.

The Sixties and Seventies witnessed a brief resurgence in the popularity of the theremin, with unexpected cameo appearances in Led Zeppelin classics, both onstage, and in the studio, perhaps most famously in the wild, freejazz-like midsection of Whole Lotta Love.

Theremin lived through three revolutions, was married three times and, since his death at the age of 97 in 1993, has been the subject of three biographies. He invented the instrument that formed the major part of his legacy when he was only 24. Theremin spent most of the Twenties in the fledgling socialist state before moving to the United States at the request of the Soviet government.

Nominally, the trip was a propaganda mission to showcase the Soviet Union’s scientific ascendancy over the West. But according to Albert Glinsky, one of Theremin’s biographers, the true purpose of the visit was murkier.

The young scientist was “on assignment [the whole] time,”tasked with gathering and relaying industrial secrets. The fruits of capitalist commerce gained from Theremin’s contract with the electronics giant RCA were passed back to Moscow.

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Whole lotta music: Led Zeppelin’s Jimmy Page on guitar and theremin

Class act: contemporary theremin virtuoso Rob Schwimmer

Music London performance to be recorded on X-ray plate as Léon Theremin’s creation wins a new generation of fans

from discarded X-rays. Bringing together what may be the world’s only non-contact musical instrument with a bootleg process used by postwar Soviet music fans to cut banned western jazz and rock ’n’ roll records promises an evening of unusual entertainment.

Weird and wonderful

THOMAS BALL, DARIA STRELAVINA

Kavina is the great niece of Léon Theremin, a physicist, inventor and spy who developed his distinctive instrument while living in NewYork.

The theremin makes music by connecting the electric pulses of the human body to a pair of metal antenna.

There are few things that connect Vladimir Lenin, Led Zeppelin and Gil Kenan’s 2006 children’s cartoon Monster House. In fact, the theremin may be the only one to achieve this feat.

SPECIAL TO RBTH

London’s avant-garde arts centre The Horse Hospital is bringing together two obscure but fascinating Soviet inventions that are enjoying a surprising comeback.

X-Ray Audio Live with thereminist Lydia Kavina at the Bloomsbury venue on 11 December represents possibly the first time a theremin recital has been recorded on LPs made

A total of 36 festival venues will host events in Moscow. Each market will have rows of stands, open stages and street theatres.

The Russian Santa Claus, Ded Moroz, will entertain guests with songs and dances.

E N .T R AV E L 2 M O S C O W. C O M

MAY LONG NIGHT OF MUSEUMS FESTIVAL More than 250 cultural institutions will remain open late into the night: museums, galleries and art corners.

MA

AUGUST SUMMER JAM FESTIVAL

SEPTEMBER OCTOBER CIRCLE OF LIGHT FESTIVAL

The city will be decorated with art installations, and festival-goers will have their choice of jams and fruity sweets to purchase in many tents.

Light designers and 2D and 3D graphics professionals will use the city’s architecture as a screen to project their multimedia and light installations.

....

Y

SEPT

JANUARY 9 MAY VICTORY DAY On this day Russia marks the end of the Great Patriotic War. The main events are a military parade in Red Square and celebrations on Poklonnaya Hill, where the Second World War museum is located.

MAY MOSCOW SPRING FESTIVAL This retro-style festival will replicate the Soviet era. Sixteen fairs will sell the best products from all the Russian regions and the former Soviet Republics.

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The eponymously named intrument was created by Theremin in the years immediately following the October Revolution. A thereminist manipulates the instrument by moving his or her hands around the instrument’s two metal antennae. The right antenna is responsible for controlling pitch and the left for volume.

Where traditional instruments produce sound through the plucking and stroking of strings, or the blowing and compression of air, the theremin operates purely on the principle that the human body conducts electricity. As one journalist wrote following Theremin’s demonstration of his invention in London in December 1927, the performance was like “a man testing the heat of a boiler with his naked hand”.

The sound of the theremin is quite unlike anything else organically produced by an in-

Moscow events calendar 2016 12 DEC 2015 11 JAN 2016 THE JOURNEY TO CHRISTMAS FESTIVAL

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Theremin remained in the United States for 11 years, juggling his time between high-level industrial espionage and further developing and refining his invention at a laboratory near his home in New York. While living in the US, Theremin met and married his second wife, Lavinia Williams, a member of the American Negro Ballet.

One September night in 1938, several Russians arrived at Theremin’s NewYork home. To Williams’s shock, her husband picked up his packed bags and left calmly with the visitors.

She never saw him again. Rumours circulated that the scientist was kidnapped in a plot organised by the NKVD, the feared Russian secret police. It was only revealed later that Theremin voluntarily returned to the Soviet Union to escape mounting financial difficulties.

Theremin arrived back in Moscow during Stalin’s Great Purge and, tainted in official eyes by his time in the West, was sent to a Siberian penal colony. His instrument is now enjoying a revival, thanks to Masami Takeuchi, the founder of the Japanese Theremin School, who created a Guinness World Record in 2012 by leading an orchestra of 272 players of the instrument, which was the largest ensemble for the strange instrument ever.

It’s a fitting tribute for a man whose other great invention was a listening device called The Thing. It was cunningly inserted into a wooden seal that went undetected for seven years after being presented to the American ambassador in Moscow in 1945.

6 22 MAY THE WORLD ICE HOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIP The 80th anniversary championships will be held in Moscow and St Petersburg.

Sixteen national teams will take part. The final will be held in the Russian capital.

EMBER

3 4 SEPTEMBER MOSCOW CITY DAY The city will celebrate its 869th birthday.

Concerts, shows and theatrical performances will be staged in the city’s central squares, streets, boulevards, embankments and parks.

27 AUG 4 SEP THE SPASSKAYA TOWER INTERNATIONAL MILITARY MUSIC FESTIVAL Russian and foreign military bands, folklore groups and honour guard units will exhibit their art in Red Square.

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