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So why did Putin end the air war? Syria Does the Russian withdrawal signal mission accomplished or mission stalled? What happens next may explain the decision VLADIMIR MIKHEEV SPECIAL TO RBTH

President Vladimir Putin said Russia’s main military contingent in Syria was being withdrawn because it had“largely achieved its objectives”,and diplomats had paved the way for a dialogue that would end the civil war. It is significant that Moscow has persuaded the main power brokers, including the US, not to set the departure of President Bashar al-Assad as a precondition for a comprehensive settlement. Russia pushed the idea of embracing all the participants in the conflict, in particular the Syrian Kurds, to allow them to take part in negotiations on the future of the country.“It’s clear that the talks should include the whole spectrum of Syrian political forces, otherwise this cannot claim to be a representative forum,” said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Syrian Kurds, like the Alawites and the Sunnis loyal to President Assad must be grateful to Moscow for changing the tide of the war in their favour. And this could be the key explanation of the volte-face in the midst of an unfinished war.

Monday 28 March 2016

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Just as Russia prepared its entry into Syria at least five months in advance, the withdrawal of troops was not a spontaneous decision. It is obvious that it was correlated both with the negotiations in Geneva, and with the Americans MILITARY ANALYST, RUSLAN PUKHOV GAZETA.RU

The search for common ground The decision to withdraw was taken on the first day of the new round of talks. This could be a sign that it is now up to the political rivals to try to find a common ground and map out for themselves either joint or separate cohabitation in this part of the Levant.

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But could Moscow have a hidden motive? Could it be the fear of coming into contact with Turkish and Saudi “boots on the ground” should their warnings materialise? Or is it a carefully calculated move to secure the gains of the military and diplomatic involvement in the Syrian civil war? The logic could follow this line: let’s preside, together with the US, the ceasefire’s co-sponsor, over the partition of Syria. It will be turned into a “federation” with a not necessarily unfriendly new regime in Damascus and a Syrian Kurdistan more or less receptive to Moscow’s strategic interests.

Commitment to retake Raqqa Grigory Kosach, an expert on the politics of the Arab world and professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, said that he saw more substance in the second option. “Moscow might count on preserving its influence with the authorities, who would control two large territories: one stretching from Damascus to Aleppo all along the Mediterranean coast, and the other encompassing the northern regions inhabited largely by the Kurds. That would constitute the ‘prize fund,’ and it would probably suffice,” said Mr Kosach. So how does this relate to the initial goal of dealing a death blow to Isil and other terrorists? “It can be argued that Russian military involvement prevented the jihadists grabbing a significant part of Syria,” said Mr Kosach. Moscow is not abandoning its initially unwilling allies in the fight against Isil. The military personnel at the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia province and at the port of Tartus will be in charge of“observing ceasefire agreements”. Moreover, Russia has voiced its commitment

to“co-ordinating”with the US the retaking of the rebel strongholds of Raqqa and Palmyra. But given the poor record of previous interaction, this looks to be more about style than substance. The never-formalised solidarity of the anti-terrorist forces does not bode well for comradeship-in-arms on the battlefield. It is likely that Moscow considers that it has achieved its objectives if success in Syria implies Russia’s resumption of its role as peace broker and conflict settler in an important part of the world. The former USSR used to have a plethora of allies and a variety of tools in the region“to make friends and influence people”: from cheap credits and handouts (mostly military hardware), to jointly constructed industrial facilities (the Aswan dam/hydropower plant in Egypt), local professionals trained and educated in Soviet universities and colleges, and the somewhat mystical lure of ideology. For Russia, all this is now unattainable. But Moscow has proved its often-repeated narrative: in regional conflicts in the relative proximity of Russia’s borders, it can influence warring parties and set the stage for a settlement. One can dispute to what extent claims that Russian air strikes led to death of civilians have tarred Moscow’s image. But judging by remarks in social media and on European online media comment pages, the efficiency of the Russian military in fighting Isil has been appreciated; so too its resolution to do something with what has been described as an existential threat to conventional Islam and nations that cherish democratic values.

Animosity is still raging For the sceptics, the scaling down of Russia’s military involvement amid the still raging animosity between the parties in Syria could be seen as a tacit admission of failure, a retreat. For the loyalists, it is proof that the doubletrack strategy (beefing up the military muscle of the Assad regime and engaging its moderate adversaries in diplomacy) has paid off. For the latter it is a strategic withdrawal. “Retreat” implies an enforced disengagement; “withdrawal”, on the other hand, is a premeditated move which has a long-term purpose. As for the timing, it resembles the shrewd, albeit routine, tactics of the stockbroker: buy low and and sell high.

Published with the New York Times, the Washington Post, Le Figaro, El Pais and other leading world newspapers.

NEWS IN BRIEF Minister attacks claims that Russia is threat to Baltic states

The Russian Deputy Defence Minister has called for an end to what he described as “horror stories” that Russia wants to send tanks to the Baltic states, Bulgaria or Hungary. In an interview with the German TV channel Deutsche Welle, Anatoliy Antonov said: “Russia is not going to war. There are no such plans. Russia does not want a war.” Mr Antonov also said that Russia was taking all possible measures to halt the spread of terrorism: “Russia managed to contain the terrorism spread in Syria. It would be even better if it were possible to stop the spread of this cancer on the whole body of the Middle East. And the terrorits in Afghanistan also pose a serious threat to security.”

Military service for dolphins The Russian defence ministry plans to buy five bottlenose dolphins for military purposes in a contract worth 1.75 million roubles (£17,500), according to the government’s procurement website. According to the tender, the contractor must catch three male and two female dolphins between the ages of three and five by 1 August. The animals will be quarantined for a month and then sent to the Sevastopol Research Oceanarium in Kozacha (Cossack) Bay, Crimea, which has been coaching sea animals for military purposes for more than half a century. How the dolphins will be used was not disclosed, though Russia may be resuming a training programme for marine “saboteurs”. An RBTH source in the Defence Ministry said that the oceanarium was simultaneously being supplied with manpower, including some troops from Moscow military units.

Return flight: a Sukhoi SU-25 jet prepares to take off from Khmeimim air base in Syria and fly to Russia. Up to two-thirds of fighters and bombers are being withdrawn

COMMENT

No hidden agenda, just a pragmatic president Dmitry Evstafyev

Rich buying luxury cars to protect wealth from inﬂation

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Sales of luxury cars are rising in Russia despite the economic crisis. Dealers for Porsche, Lamborghini and Rolls-Royce all reported a significant increase in demand. Ivan Tkachenko, brand director of the British Rolls-Royce dealer Inchcape, said Rolls-Royce sales had increased by 30pc in 2015. Last year, the company sold more than 100 cars. Some will see the trend as surprising, given that the Russian car market in general is suffering from a slump: the business and budget sector fell up to 50pc this year, Mr Tkachenko estimates. Analysts believe that this phenomenon shows that the rich are seeking to protect their wealth from inflation by buying expensive cars as an investment.

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The decision to pull Russian forces out of Syria has surprised the West and engendered a significant number of conspiracy theories about the reasons behind it. But there was really nothing to be surprised about. Russian President Vladimir Putin pursues a cause to the end only when it concerns Russia’s security or his plausibility as leader. If such critical interests are not at stake, the Russian president finds it easy to leave the process. The West, in evaluating the consequences of Russia’s operation in Syria, has fallen into a trap created by its distrust of Moscow. From the very beginning, the Kremlin had emphasised the limited nature of the Russian air force mission and its unwillingness to become involved in a ground operation. But the West continued to suspect Moscow of having a hidden agenda. Moscow had said that the operation would continue so long as the Syrian army was fighting the terrorists. However, when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army began pretending to be besieging Palmyra but in reality was concentrating its forces in the areas around Aleppo, Russia decided to end

After Russia’s departure from the field of realpolitik in Syria, the West is faced with new challenges

the operation. Moscow clearly demonstrated to Assad that it supports his fight against Isil and other terrorist organisations but not his attempts to use Russian military potential to solve the problems of his political survival. In part, the Kremlin’s decision is related to the growth of Russian-Iranian disagreements on a wide range of issues, which includes co-operation in the oil sector. But Moscow never hid the fact that it wanted to act in Syria as a component of a large anti-terrorist coalition and considers it a part of a “big picture”.The moment Iran stopped being as co-operative as it had been and revealed its unwillingness to actively work in Syria (the departure of Hezbollah units from Syria began before Mr Putin announced his decision), one of the most important conditions for Russia continuing its operations simply disappeared. What is more obvious is Moscow’s determination to undermine German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s propaganda linking Europe’s migration problem to Russia’s actions in Syria. The Kremlin has rendered this propaganda campaign ineffective. The campaign had irritated Mr Putin, especially since the flow of refugees is unlikely to recede. In its limited pragmatism, today’s Kremlin is, as strange as it seems, frank and open to interaction. The Kremlin has usually been

extremely sensitive to the fluctuations of public opinion, all the more in periods of economic difficulty that are also related to its foreign policy. Even though the operation in Syria was backed by the Russian public, which viewed it as yet another expression of the new foreign policy status, the possibility of a direct military clash in Syria with Turkey, and consequently, the United States, raised concerns among the expert community and the public. Since the operation’s military aims and the political objective to reestablish relations with Washington were already announced, the Kremlin did not want to risk alienating public opinion. Now, after Russia’s departure from the field of realpolitik in Syria, the West, and first and foremost the US, is faced with new challenges. The US has been left alone with the region’s political and military problems, and not only with Assad, but also with Erdogan, who is becoming more and more uncontrollable; with the Islamists, who have preserved their military and political potential; and with the Saudis, who are getting more and more involved in the internal crisis. Mr Putin will be available to give President Obama a hand if he needs it. Dmitry Evstafyev is a politologist, arabist and professor at the Higher School of Economics.

An extreme encounter with the world’s deepest lake Every year, the beginning of spring in the Irkutsk Region is inaugurated by the Baikal Ice Marathon (BIM), Siberia’s largest international sporting event, which is held 3,500 miles from Moscow.

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Year 2030: the Russian revolutions to come Perspectives The Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum last month heard some fascinating predictions for the country’s future ALEXEI LOSSAN SPECIAL TO RBTH

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A revolution in agricultural technology will see Russia move from an economy based on natural resources to one based on food, economists have predicted. The Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum was given a glimpse last month of the country’s future as economists and futurologists described the likely developments in decentralisation, food technologies and healthcare. Here are some of the topics that were discussed.

Agriculture can be the new IT If in the 18th century, agriculture was the most advanced sector of the economy, in the 19th and the 20th centuries it nearly became the most backward. The explosive growth of the Soviet economy from the Twenties to the Sixties was largely driven by the relocation of labour from rural areas to towns and cities in search of work. The modern economy, however, works differently, and the agricultural sector can become a source of new technologies to the same extent as the IT sector can, according to participants at the forum. According to the futurologists’ forecasts, the next technological revolution will take place in food, so a focus on the agricultural sector will help Russia to make a timely switch from an economy based on natural resources to one based on food. Since Russia is the biggest country in the world, it could become a real testing ground for developing agro-industrial technologies. This thesis was succinctly summed up at the forum by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich: “Russia is already heating the world; Russia can feed it too.”

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New banks to be founded

Bigger role for the regions

The main development institutions in Russia are its state-owned banks: the country’s biggest lender Sberbank, its competitor VTB, and VEB, which was set up to finance a series of infrastructure projects. These banks, which financed the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, have found themselves cut off from the world capital markets following the imposition of western sanctions. Oleg Deripaska, one of Russia’s richest people (Forbes estimates his wealth at $6.2bn) and the owner of the world’s biggest aluminium company, Rusal, pointed out at the forum that a couple of banks “cannot save the whole of the Russian economy” – there should be at least eight of them. New major banks could be set up by leading businessmen and could be headed by former government officials who will lose their jobs as a result of streamlining government structures and spending. This should be followed by a complete outsourcing of the state’s functions, for example in the realm of education and the social sphere, and a growing role should be taken by Russia’s non-governmental organisations.

Since the 2000s, all taxes in Russia have been allocated through the federal centre, making Moscow the fastest developing city in the country. In future, everything will be different, according to the Strategy-2030 blueprint for Russia’s development. Moscow’s economy has been growing mainly through the development of the services sector. However, with GDP weakening along with falling oil prices, this potential has already been exhausted. Now it is necessary to create incentives for moving people from services to other sectors of the economy. The toughest stance on the Russian capital’s monopoly on wealth was voiced by Mr Deripaska, who said:“It is time to depopulate Moscow. Each time I come to Moscow, I wonder what all those people do,” said the businessman, most of whose assets are in Siberia.

it will be possible to travel to Mars will not be until 2018. That’s when the second stage of the ExoMars project will take place.” Mars has much in common with Earth, including seasons, seasonal melting of polar ice caps, clouds and water. Mars is just over half the size of Earth, but it has the highest volcano in the solar system at 68,900ft.

Why global success is in the air for hi-tech startup

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Reflecting on the future: Moscow International Business Centre. The forum heard a call for the creation of more banks

sia, where people do not usually live long enough to develop Alzheimer’s and mainly die of various cardiovascular conditions. Disease prevention is seen as the main area of development for the medicine of the future. Doctors should no longer concentrate on treating diseases; they should seek to prevent them. In this respect, it was proposed at the forum that Russia could follow France’s example. Despite a relatively short working week (officially 35 hours) and not an especially large population, France has been able to create the necessary technologies. The main reason was seen as its reliance on effective education. “The French have a superior education system, although they are not particularly great workers and enjoy a sybaritic lifestyle,” academician Alexander Kuleshov told the forum. The article is based on reports by the vice-chancellor of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Vladimir Mau; academician Alexander Kuleshov; author Alexander Arkhangelsky; Rusal president Oleg Deripaska; and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

Focus will be on disease prevention Another key area of discussion at the forum was healthcare. In developed countries, one of the biggest items in healthcare spending is the treatment of Alzheimer's disease among the elderly population. This is not the case in Rus-

Methane is the key

Blast-off: the Proton-M rocket launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome

Hunt is on for ‘little green men’ of Mars Space A joint Russian-European expedition will look for telltale signs of life on the Red Planet SVETLANA ARKHANGELSKAYA SPECIAL TO RBTH

On March 14 at 12.31pm, a Proton-M rocket with Russian and European instruments on board took off for Mars from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The mission’s primary goal is to find methane on the planet, a gas that is often a sign of primitive biological life. There will also be an attempt to develop technologies for a soft landing amid dust storms. March 2016 was chosen because it’s when Earth and Mars are closest, or about 34 million miles from each other, as opposed to the average distance of 140 million miles. “This period is a ‘window’ of sorts,” said Dr Igor Mitrofanov, director of the department of nuclear planetology at the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “This occurs once every two years and 50 days. The next time

The goal of the 11 Russian and three European instruments fixed to the orbital and landing devices is to study the atmosphere of Mars in more detail and find possible signs of life, such as methane. This gas often has biological origins; on Earth more than 90pc of methane is derived from biological sources. “We might find oases in which primitive creatures still exist, having developed there billions of years ago,” Dr Mitrofanov said. Dr Alexander Tokhimovsky, a specialist at the Institute of Space Research, said: “Up until now, all attempts to find methane were conducted with devices of limited sensitivity, but now instruments 100 times more powerful are on their way to Mars.” “We will be able to determine whether or not methane is present and how much. Then, we can make our conclusions.” The first stage of the mission will take about seven months. It will reach Mars in the middle of October, and three days before entering the planet’s atmosphere, the Schiaparelli landing module will be released from the orbiter, after which it will descend to the Red Planet’s surface.

Partners in the mission The cost of the ExoMars mission is estimated at €1bn (£781m) and includes two stages: ExoMars 2016 and ExoMars 2018. For the first stage, Russia provided the rocket-carrier and half of the scientific instruments for the Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO), while the European Space Agency supplied the TGO itself, and the Schiaparelli lander. For the TGO, Russia prepared the Atmospheric Chemistry Suite (ACS), which will study the chemical composition and atmospheric structure of Mars, and the Fine Resolution Epithermal Neutron Detector (Frend), which will search for hydrogen and deposits of water and ice. The Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology helped develop the data processing algorithms for analysing the atmosphere in the ACS. “Our system will remotely examine the content of the gases from orbit, as well as the temperature and the clouds, in the way meteorological satellites do,” said Dr Oleg Korablev, scientific director of the ACS system. “The Schiaparelli lander will help develop technologies for a soft landing in dust storms. It is necessary to see how it will react in extreme conditions.” Dr Korablev said the TGO had clear scientific objectives. It will relay data back from the Red Planet until 2022.

Innovation AeroState targets wearable electronics market with pollution-forecasting tool DINARA MAMEDOVA SPECIAL TO RBTH

A few years ago, young Russian scientists were conducting research in atmospheric physics when they realised it was possible to forecast the level of pollution in different areas of cities. This was the beginning of AeroState, which analyses air quality and gives recommendations to users. “For example, a person wants to go jogging in the morning; well, our service allows you to see if there is smog nearby or if the air in another city park is better,” said Dmitry Solomentsev, AeroState’s founder. To forecast air quality for a given area, AeroState uses an integrated approach, combining the analysis of physical and chemical phenomena, satellite data, mathematical models of the atmosphere and pollution data. It also predicts wind direction over a continent, as well as in the city, simply by applying machinelearning algorithms and artificial intelligence for a more accurate forecast. AeroState has seed investment from Michael Kokorich, the Russian businessman and founder of Dauria Aerospace, which is Russia’s first private satellite developer.

Quality of life Air quality forecasts and maps are distributed through a web-based application program interface. To get free access, the user must sign up and get a personal key. In low resolution, the service gives general forecasts around the world. In high-resolution, forecasts with an accuracy of up to a city block are available in London and Barcelona; in the US, this is available in New York City, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The US is a priority market for AeroState, the founders said. “Our service is closely related to quality of life,” Mr Solomentsev added. “In countries where the quality of life is high, people think about the environment.” Air quality is calculated by a method which was developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. AeroState will also offer this technology in Asia. Mr Solomentsev sees great potential for its service in China, where air pollution is a

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Breathing easier: AeroState’s technology warns of air pollution blackspots in cities

major issue. “Our main customers are outdoor sports businesses, as well as buyers of real estate,” said Mr Solomentsev. “The information that we provide is important because in a big city the air quality can vary in different areas.”

Market for wearables growing fast In the future, AeroState plans to develop additional services that can be integrated into fitness bracelets and other wearable health devices. Mr Solomentsev and his team see potential in the opportunities offered by the rapidly growing market of wearable electronics. According to the IDC research company, in the third quarter of 2015, producers of various wearables sold a total of 21 million units, which is three times more than the number of smartwatches, fitness trackers and other devices sold over the same period in 2014. Among the leaders of mobile health are tech giants including Samsung, Google, and Apple. The service has two main competitors – the European startup Plume Labs, and the Israeli company BreezoMeter. The service’s main selling point is the accuracy of its technology, according to AeroState’s main investor, Michael Kokorich. “AeroState has a technological advantage in that it allows users to obtain information on air quality anywhere in the city,” Mr Kokorich said. “So it has the potential to succeed in the mobile health market and other areas. Potentially, the service can be used in smart home technology.”

Special Report: Energy Security THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA_www.rbth.co.uk_Monday 28 March 2016_P3

Let’s keep the genie in the bottle Nuclear Summit Russia is still committed to international co-operation despite its decision not to attend

statement said. Russia gives the highest priority to co-ordinating efforts to improve nuclear security with the established institution, the IAEA. Moscow praised the agency’s monitoring activities, which resulted in the first report in February on Iran’s implementation of its liabilities under the nuclear deal it concluded with the P5+1 group (permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) in 2015.

NADEZHDA DOMBROWSKAYA SPECIAL TO RBTH

IAEA: the linchpin of regulatory regimes

Russia will not attend the final Nuclear Security Summit from 31 March-1 April in Washington, DC. But its absence will not undermine its commitment to co-operation with the international community under the auspices of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), working with the US in the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT), or efforts to enhance the non-proliferation regime. On the practical side, Russia has been directly involved in the gradual removal of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and separated plutonium. In five years, the number of countries with weapons-usable nuclear material has fallen from 32 to 24. A White House official recently confirmed that Russia continues to work“constructively with the United States” on projects aimed at retrieving nuclear materials from third countries. In particular, Russia co-operates with the US on repatriating highly enriched uranium from Kazakhstan and Poland. Contacts between nuclear regulators of the two main stakeholders in the nuclear field have not been severed. Nothing is hindering or slowing down the large-scale destruction of 68 metric tons of surplus plutonium (which is enough to produce about 17,000 nuclear weapons), which is being implemented in accordance with the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement reached between Russia and the United States in 2000.

Moscow wants a level playing field The stumbling block seemed to have emerged after a group of 35 countries that signed the joint statement on“Strengthening Nuclear Security Implementation”at the 2014 summit went forward with an ambitious goal of providing guidance through recommendations to the International Atomic Energy Agency. This was viewed in Moscow as an attempt to influence the agenda not only of the IAEA, but also of the United Nations, Interpol, and the GICNT. Russian authorities suspect that a group of nations wants to place weapons-grade stocks of feasible material of other countries under their “international” jurisdiction. In November 2015, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) detailed the reasons for not attending the Washington Nuclear Security Summit, placing emphasis on the procedural regulations that granted privileges to the host nations of previous summits at the expense of other participants. These rights would have stopped divergent opinions being taken into account in the formulation of the summit resolutions, an MFA

Helping Hungary stay safe Looking back, Russian expertise in dealing with nuclear security matters can be demonstrated by the event in April 2003, when Hungary requested assistance in the retrieval and subsequent reprocessing of irradiated fuel assemblies at Paks NPP Unit 2. The fuel assemblies were damaged in the course of a washing operation and the event

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was rated at level 3 on the international scale INES (which means that it is regarded as a serious incident). Later, in January 2007, the Russian company TVEL completed the recovery activity, which allowed Hungary to resume commercial operation of Paks-2 in the shortest time possible.

State-of-the art processing

Russia, South Korea, China or Spain: who will build nuclear power plants in Iran? Scan here

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Today, Russia is applying state-of-the-art technologies to process nuclear materials. The Rosatom plant in the Krasnoyarsk region (see below), which had previously specialised in weapons-grade plutonium, launched the manufacturing process for an innovative fuel for NPPs with fast neutron reactors. The plant will use regenerated uranium and plutonium received after reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. The advanced technology would allow Russia to meet its commitment, in parallel with the United States, to destroy, or, what would be a better option, to reprocess the 34 tons of plutonium that is defined as being “excessive” for defence needs.

WAYS RUSSIA IS MAKING THE WORLD SAFER In the past five years, Russia has helped cut the number of third-party countries with weapons-grade nuclear material from 32 to 24

Russia has repatriated more than 4,700lbs of highly enriched uranium provided to foreign countries by the Soviet Union. Ten of the 14 countries provided with the material are now nuclear-waste free

Russia played an important role in negotiations over the nuclear deal with Iran, which requires Tehran to provide extensive access to its nuclear facilities and dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges

Co-operation well on track

Russia was instrumental in settling this contentious issue, which required 12 years to hammer out a sustainable and acceptable solution for all parties. In an interview with The New York Times, US President Barack Obama expressed his surprise that Moscow had been so forthcoming and co-operative, “given the strong differences we are having with Russia right now around Ukraine”. President Obama went so far as to admit: “We would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us and the other P5+ members in insist-

ing on a strong deal.” The Russian Research Reactor Fuel Return programme (RRRFR) has also proved to be a success. More than 60 removal operations from 14 countries resulted in almost 2,160kg of HEU, supplied originally by the USSR, being repatriated to Russia. Ten out of a total of 14 nations are now totally free from HEU. This programme is conducted by Russia in co-operation with the Untied States and the IAEA. Moscow regards the IAEA as the linchpin of regulatory regimes and the most competent and effective mechanism available to deal with nuclear security issues.

Safety first: work under way in the reactor hall of the Leningrad nuclear power plant near St Petersburg.

COMMENT

A diplomatic falling out risks disaster in a dangerous nuclear world Petr Topychkanov SPECIAL TO RBTH

Recent high-level statements from both sides indicate that the political leaders of Russia and the West don’t trust each other. The sanctions war between them hints at a new Cold War, and the ongoing sabre rattling exacerbates the problem. However, there is one area where the leaders of both Russia and the West can agree, and that’s the desire to keep nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction out of the hands of terrorists. Although their interpretation may be different, in Moscow, Washington and Brussels, there is now a universal understanding of common security threats. In short, the rise of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) has re-centred the focus of Russia and the West on the risks of nuclear proliferation.

Russia and the US were able to agree on sanctions against Iran and North Korea for their test programmes

Positive examples The fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was one of the key disagreements between

Russia and the West; while the Kremlin supports him, the West seeks to oust him. But the chemical weapons issue in Syria brought them closer together; Moscow and Washington agreed jointly to contribute to the dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons, and forced the Assad regime to ratify the Chemical Weapons Convention in 2013. Russia doesn’t agree with the US on how to deal with either North Korea or Iran; Moscow criticises the unilateral pressure of Washington on these two countries, especially when it comes to human rights and democracy. But the Kremlin and the White House find common ground over how best to address the challenges and threats posed by these countries. For example, the Kremlin and the White House succeeded in resolving the Iranian nuclear problem and signed the Iranian nuclear deal with other P5+1 countries (the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany). Likewise, Russia and the US were able to agree on sanctions against Iran and North Korea for their nuclear testing and attempts to acquire nuclear technologies. One of the recent examples of another such compromise is the UN Security Council’s 2 March 2016

Resolution 2270, which toughens sanctions on North Korea and expands them into different fields. Russia and the West continue to share a common understanding of key challenges to the non-proliferation regime. Russians, Americans and Europeans do not want new states to acquire nuclear weapons. And they especially do not want non-state actors to have access to weapons of mass destruction.

violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty lead to questions, raised by other members of international community, about the responsibility of Russia and the US, their adherence to their commitments, and ability to negotiate effectively. Third, the lack of communication channels between political, military, and intelligence communities of Russia and the West leave them without important ways to detect proliferation threats and co-operate in counter-proliferation. Fourth, the aggressive rhetoric of some Russian and American politicians and top military leaders gives a bad example to others countries’ leaders, who might switch to using the same rhetoric.

Co-operation and confrontation Moscow, Washington and Brussels seem to have accepted the idea that they may act co-operatively when it comes to non-proliferation (at least, in the most important cases), and at the same time they may be confrontational in their relations with each other. The danger is that the confrontation between Russia and the West weakens international non-proliferation collaboration. The positive examples of co-operation shouldn’t be misleading. After all, the fact that Russia and the US can agree on the Iranian or North Korean challenge doesn’t mean that their non-proliferation effort is going to work as usual. Moreover, a lack of understanding between the US and Russia could derail the international nonproliferation effort for four major reasons. First, the US-Russian nuclear disarmament partnership is frozen, which sends worrying signals to both nuclear and non-nuclear states. Some may interpret this to mean that it is high time to arm, not to disarm. Second, mutual accusations about the

Future threats

The conflict between Russia and the West weakens international collaboration against the spread of weapons

A farewell to arms… and a welcome to waste-free energy Technology A switch from weapons-grade plutonium production to new reactor fuel marks Zheleznogorsk as a nuclear trailblazer HENRY KENNETT SPECIAL TO RBTH

The production facility for new-generation mixed oxide (MOX) fuel for fast neutron reactors was launched in the autumn of 2015 in Zheleznogorsk. Located in Krasnoyarsk Territory, the town is known for a developed nuclear industry, an industrial complex so far unique in the

world. The new technology to produce fuel for nuclear plants can cut the volume of radioactive waste and opens a viable way to create waste-free technology in the industry. “Colleagues from France, who recently visited our plant, praised what they saw,” says Pyotr Gavrilov, director of the Mining and Chemical Combine (MCC), where the production facility is based. “They admitted that they attribute our technology not even to the third, but to the fourth generation.”

Problems of the past The opening of the MOX fuel production facility has become an important and largely

symbolic event. It was in Zheleznogorsk that the underground MCC was created in an atmosphere of secrecy in the mid-Fifties for producing weapons-grade plutonium. It was necessary to build many kilometres of tunnels and create underground workshops to house three industrial reactors and a complex radiochemical production facility inside the mountain. For many decades, the MCC’s three underground reactors produced plutonium-239, which was used to create the nuclear warheads for Soviet ballistic missiles. But after a series of US-Russian (and before that Soviet-American) agreements, it was

Despite several success stories, Russia and the West are creating conditions for the emergence of new proliferation threats, and leaving themselves with limited instruments to anticipate and clearly define these threats, as well as to stop them. The domination of confrontational approaches in the relations between Russia and the West will continue to weaken the non-proliferation regime. And even modest attempts to change confrontational approaches to co-operative ones will have a long-term positive impact on the non-proliferation regime. Petr Topychkanov is a fellow of the problems of non-proliferation programme at The Carnegie Moscow Centre.

decided to gradually phase out all of the reactors that produced plutonium – both in Russia and the United States. The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement also obliged the United States to work with Russia to convert weapons-grade plutonium into mixed-oxide nuclear fuel. That is why, after the last of the three reactors in Zheleznogorsk was decommissioned, it was decided to convert the underground workshops for the production of MOX fuel. The creation of a MOX facility and a power unit with a fast neutron reactor – the BN-800 – was the most difficult of the Russian-American agreement’s road-map obligations. Russia has overcome its part of the difficulties and now expects the same success from the United States. The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement comes into effect in 2018.

Culture P4_Monday 28 March 2016_www.rbth.co.uk_THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA

New chapter: celebrating the universal language of culture Literary landmark Concerts, poetry festivals and art exhibitions are organised to mark UK-Russia Year of Language and Literature 2016 RBTH

BASEES CONFERENCE

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Building on the increasing successes of past conferences, the British Association for Slavonic and East European Studies continues to attract scholars of Slavonic and East European studies from a wide range of disciplines from across the world for the annual event. thekompass.rbth.co.uk/event/basees-annual-conference-2016-university-cambridge-1529

READ RUSSIA AT LONDON BOOK FAIR 12-14 APRIL DIFFERENT VENUES ACROSS LONDON

The Read Russia international project returns to the London Book Fair. Among daily meetings with award-wining contemporary writers, this year the Russian stand (5D169) will showcase more than 30 Russian publishers and more than 500 new titles, with a focus on the works of Russian writers whose anniversaries are celebrated in 2016, educational publishing and children’s literature. Activities will take place at the Olympia exhibition centre, the Russian Bookshop at Waterstones Piccadilly, Pushkin House, and Rossotrudnichestvo. A series of events will be held especially for translators and Russian language specialists, including the Read Russia English Translation Prize. Specialists from the Pushkin Institute will be on hand to give consultations on distant learning of the Russian language. The Read Russia project is supported by the Russian Federal Agency for Press and Mass Communications. The organisers in London are the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Centre and the Institute for Literary Translation.

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TOTAL DICTATION emas. There are also several events that, while not directly part of the year’s cultural programme, will nonetheless serve to intensify the impressions of Russia’s language and literature in the minds of the British. While the National Portrait Gallery sent a total of 49 masterpieces from its walls to Moscow, the exhibition Russia and the Arts: The Age of Tolstoy and Tchaikovsky, prepared by the Tretyakov Gallery, opened on 17 March at the London venue. The exchange exhibition can also be considered part of theYear of Language and Literature, because most of the paintings are portraits of Russian writers. Meanwhile, the Bolshoi Theatre will tour in London this summer. According to Mr Shvydkoi, even in the most difficult periods of Russian-British relations, the British have always been interested in Russian ballet. Russia welcomes the 17th New British Film Festival, a literary summer in Leo Tolstoy’s former home Yasnaya Polyana, a Shakespeare live festival, translators’ competition and other events.“In the context of the current political and military crisis, a year of language and literature seems to be very important. It proves that culture and nations have a presumption of innocence,” Mr Shvydkoi said.

cerpts from his plays and sonnets. An equivalent train is planned to appear in London with quotes by Russian authors. Russia will be broadly represented at the London Book Fair. “We will show the novelties that have appeared in Russian literature in the most recent years, the young authors who still have not been presented to the foreign audience,” said Mr Shvydkoi. (See below for full details on the Russian writers who will be represented at the book fair.) The year’s organisers will also pay particular attention to collaboration between translators, writers and publishers who promote Russian literature in the UK.

MULTIMEDIA

Shakespeare takes the Moscow Metro and London offers a Russian ride

From the glories of Russian poetry to the Language Olympics

“The 2016 Year of Language and Literature is a great opportunity for us to build on what we achieved in 2014 through the UK-Russia Year of Culture,” according to Michael Bird, head of the British Council in Russia. “The 400th anniversary of Shakespeare’s death will be commemorated around the world, but nowhere will it have more resonance than in Russia, where Shakespeare, because of his influence on Russian writers, is practically a Russian writer himself.” The Moscow metro is planning to launch a Shakespeare train featuring quotes and ex-

The Pushkin in Britain International Festival of Russian Poetry, which usually starts on the poet’s birthday on 6 June, will be a much bigger event this year. Other events organised include the Russian Language Olympics, which will be held in some UK schools, as well as a large number of inter-university and scientific conferences dedicated to the study of the Russian language and Russian literature. Meanwhile, a comprehensive series of RusFIND MORE rbth.com/uk_russia_year sian film classics will be shown in British cinScan this code to read the full programme of UK-Russia Year of Language and Literature

Past and present: top, the Shakespeare train on the Moscow Metro; left, one of the paintings that will be shown in Moscow; portrait of Anton Chekhov by Osip Braz

16 APRIL ACROSS THE UK

Total Dictation is an annual event for those who love the Russian language and have a desire to improve their writing. Anyone can register on the webiste and take part in the free sessions. Held in several Russian cities and in selected locations across the globe, this year the movement includes more than 50 countries. thekompass.rbth.co.uk/event/join-total-dictationlondon-1525

CHILDREN’S BOOKS FROM SOVIET RUSSIA 27 MAY - 11 SEPTEMBER HOUSE OF ILLUSTRATION

With their perfect synthesis of typography, design and illustration, Soviet children’s books in the Twenties and Thirties revolutionised the picture book form in turbulent times. Rare books and original works from the unparalleled collection of Sasha Lurye will provide a window on a fascinating moment in 20th-century illustration. thekompass.rbth.co.uk/event/childrens-books-sovietrussia-house-illustration-1537

FIND MORE IN THE CULTURE CALENDAR

thekompass.rbth.co.uk/calendar

GUZEL YAKHINA A new star of the Russian literary scene, Yakhina, 38, was born in Kazan and now lives in Moscow. She used to work in PR and graduated from the Moscow Screenwriting Academy this year. Her debut novel Zuleikha Opens Her Eyes became the literary sensation of the 2015, after winning several international literary prizes. The novel is about a woman living in a remote Tatar village in the Thirties. The villagers are sent to a Siberian camp along with dispossessed residents from neighbouring settlements. It will be translated into 16 languages, including English.

ALEXANDER SNEGIREV Born in Moscow, Snegirev, 36, studied political science at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. In 2009 he received the Debut Award for Young Authors for short fiction. His latest novel Vera won the 2015 Russian Booker Prize. It is a story about a young woman of the same name who is seeking herself, wants to have children and is putting all her energy into finding love. Critics believe that Vera continues the tradition of great Russian epic historical novels. His novel Petroleum Venus, nominated for a series of leading literary prizes, has been translated into English.

ALISA GANIEVA Raised in Dagestan, Ganieva, 30, lives in Moscow and works as a literary critic and editor. In 2009, her novel Salam, Dalgat! won the Debut literary prize for young authors. The novel was written under a male pseudonym and describes a life of a young man in Dagestan. The novel is full of colourful descriptions of life in the Caucasus and depicts such an authentically masculine world view that it is hard to believe it was written by a young woman. At the moment The Mountain and the Wall is available in English. The next book Bride and Groom is currently under translation.

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RUSSIAN WRITERS TO WATCH AT THE BOOK FAIR

An opera based on Alexander Pushkin’s tragic story and featuring the music of Modest Mussorgky, it tells how the Tsar Boris Godunov came to power by murdering the eight-yearold Prince Dimitry, who was heir to the Russian throne. Boris has ruled well, but famines, thought by some to be divine punishment, have led to rising support for his enemies. The young monk Grigory, realising that he was born the same day as the murdered Tsarevich, decides to pose as the risen Dmitry in an attempt to seize the throne. Antonio Pappano conducts a new production of the opera, starring Bryn Terfel in the title role and directed by Richard Jones.

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE 2-4 APRIL

Culture ties despite political challenges Mikhail Shvydkoi, the Russian presidential special representative for international cultural co-operation, said that the year-long event was proof that Russian literature was an “integral part”of world culture. Mr Shvydkoi added that Russian-British relations had been developing for the past 500 years. There had been difficult moments but there had also been mutual support, such as in the Second World War. “There are various political situations, but cultural relations are something eternal,” he said. “Outside the UK we stage Shakespeare more than anyone else, while the UK stages Chekhov more than any other country. George Bernard Shaw like no one else expressed his affection for this great playwright, subtitling his play Heartbreak House thus: A Fantasia in the Russian Manner on English Themes, obviously referring to Anton Chekhov.” Despite the current complex political relations between Russia and the United Kingdom, the year’s organisers hope that the programme will be realised in full.

BORIS GODUNOV ROYAL OPERA HOUSE UNTIL 5 APRIL

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ALEXANDRA GUZEVA, PHOEBE TAPLIN

Cultural relations between Russia and the UK continue to be close and active. During the 2014 UK-Russia Year of Culture, more than 200 events took place in Russia and the UK, including the landmark exhibition Cosmonauts: Birth of the Space Age at the Science Museum in London. Meanwhile, 2016 has been announced as UK-Russia Year of Language and Literature. The official opening was marked at the Royal Festival Hall on 25 February, with a special concert to accompany a screening of the 1927 film Love with Greta Garbo, based on Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina. The composer Aphrodire Raichopoulou has written a score for the film for the concert, which was performed by the violinist Vadim Repin with the accompaniment of the London Philharmonic Orchestra. While British audiences are still drying their eyes after the heart-wrenching finale of the BBC’s adaptation of War and Peace, what better place to start than at the screening of Tolstoy’s other famous novel? The Russian ambassador to the UK, Alexander Yakovenko, said that the evening was a vivid expression of the fact that culture is a universal language.

CALENDAR UK EVENTS

ANDREI GELASIMOV Born in Siberia, Gelasimov, 49, completed a masters thesis on Oscar Wilde in Moscow. Several of his works have been published in English. Thirst, a novella about Russia's lost generation, follows three young men returning from the war in Chechnya. The Lying Year focuses on the same time period, the late Nineties, with its accompanying criminality and financial default. The plot of bestseller Gods of the Steppe takes place in 1945, on the Soviet Union’s enormous eastern border with China. In 2017, his new book Cold will be published in English.

IRINA MURAVYOVA Born in Moscow, Muravyova, 63, moved to the United States in 1985, where she taught Russian at Harvard and received her PhD from Brown University. She was chief editor of two Boston-based periodicals, while her literary works were published in major Russian literary journals. Muravyova’s body of work includes 20 novels and more than 50 short stories. Her Day of the Angel is available in English. Works by Muravyova are also included in Captives: An anthology of Russian stories and Nine: An Anthology of Russia’s Foremost Women Writers.

ANDREI ASTVATSATUROV Born in St Petersburg, Astvatsaturov, 46, completed a diploma on James Joyce and wrote a dissertation on TS Eliot. A specialist in English literature and language, he is now an assistant professor at St Petersburg State University and often appears in the Russian media in this capacity. His latest book Not Only Salinger is a collection of essays about British and American literature. He is also an author of several novels that have been translated into Italian, French, Hungarian, Czech and Finnish. Surprisingly, there are no English translations so far.

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