RE COVE RI NGF ROMANEVE RF ACE DE CONOMI CDI S RUPT I ON, ANDADVANCI NGONT HEP AT HT OT HENE XTNORMAL I NF ORMAT I ONANDCOMMUNI CAT I ONST E CHNOL OGY NEW P ARADI GMOFPROBABI L I S T I CCOMPUT I NG COUL DI NS PI REOURT HI NKI NG T HROUGHAF UT UREWORL DOFUNCE RT AI NTY
RET AI L E RS ’ CURRE NTRE F L E CT I NG ANDL E ARNI NGF ROMCHAL L E NGE S APRI L17, 2020, ROMANI AN AME RI CANUNI VE RS I TY’ S 29T HANNI VE RS ARY: L OOKI NGT OT HEF UT URE WI T HCONF I DE NCE ,S OL I DARI TYANDE MP AT HY
VOL UME11 I S S UE2 2020
Editorial: To Make the First Step in the Necessary New Journey, Harmonizing Efficiency and Resiliency… and Not Only
There is a real need of creativity in these times of interminable unpredictability. As we know, the novel and useful ideas are considered creative, but sometime when forecasting the potential creativity of their initial ideas creators are exhibiting myopia (overlooking some of their most promising initial ideas), that is why it is important to make the difference between the most promising initial ideas (selecting which initial idea to pursue on the basis of the first instinct, moderating the creative final idea accordingly), and going after one of the more abstract ideas (resisting deliberately the attraction of concrete initial ideas), assuming the possibility of rejecting some of the best initial ideas without ever knowing it (not forgetting about motivation’s role in driving the expected results, the difference between the novelty’s role and the usefulness role in forecasting potential creativity, and so on). (Berg, 2019) Where are you ideas’ creators to thank you for your contribution to the future of society by identifying the direction we are moving to, being better? We really need to make that first step in a necessary long journey. At the end of June this year a Sr. Digital Marketing and Brands Manager at a staffing and recruiting software company from U.S. showed in an article – entitled “There is No Going Back to Normal: How Jobs & the Workplace will be Affected Permanently” – how companies and their way of operation was disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic, and referred to some of the shifts at the workplace. One of the aspects approached within this framework was, for instance, on the job medical screening, before entering a workplace, being given some examples (such as
10
Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot and Starbucks), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control encouraging employers (who are legally permitted) to check the temperature of (all) their employees. (Roeslmeier, 2020) Very recently, Gartner’s representatives confirmed the persistence of the volatility and uncertainty within the context of market’ shift << from the “recovery” to “renewal” phases of the pandemic >>, and underlined the imperative of considering this instability (by CMOs) and focusing on flexible and adaptive plans accordingly. (Blum, 2020) They showed how – within the context of the major changes in consumer buying habits prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic – brands need to adapt accordingly (by updating their fulfillment strategies, refocusing their ad spend and using insights from category differences). (Ramaswami, 2020) On the other hand, a new CB Insights report underlined: the major supply chain disruptions caused by Covid19 in the global economy, showing that in order to address current market uncertainty there is a real need of supply chain resilience which is promoted by a rising ecosystem of technologyfocused trends and solutions; how they used the NExTT (Necessary, Experimental, Transitory, or Threatening) framework in order to analyze the industry adoption and market strength of the emerging supply chain and logistics tech trends. This CB Insights report focused in the first place on retail and consumer product supply chains (emerging trends such as: autonomous drones and vehicles providing efficient and contactless last-mile delivery for retailers; robotic fulfillment solutions to meet the growing demand for speedy online order fulfillment etc.). It was also interesting to note another new CB Insights report with regard to the fight to secure sellers for the online platforms made more shoppable thanks to the different models (like more tailored marketplaces, social platforms etc.), and this within the more intense growing of the competition for e-commerce shoppers. This report examined how (Canada-based) Shopify (ecommerce software provider leading the market for SMBs, and being ranked second behind Amazon according to its estimates concerning the powering of the e-commerce sales in the US) is expanding its offers (as shown in the figure below) in marketing and sales channels, order transaction, and order fulfillment.
Figure no. 1: Shopify’s approach of expanding its offers Source: How The Leading E-Commerce Platform For Small Businesses Is Expanding Its Retail Footprint, CB Insights, July 9, 2020 (work cited)
11
Also very recently, the Eglobalis managing director highlighted companies’ need of taking a faster pathway toward their digital transformation, considering the radically customer behavior’s shift toward online purchases, making reference within this framework to a recent AfterPay Insights’ survey of customers in Germany, The Netherlands, and Norway, which revealed that the primary motivator to buy groceries online are now safety and health concerns. (Saltz Gulko, 2020) AfterPay Insights’ research confirmed on June 16, 2020 that “Food and Grocery e-commerce booms and growth is driven by digital-savvy consumers’ necessities rather than desires”, making differences between different the first period of time (when lockdowns within the COVID-19 pandemic were strict; consumers’ orders out of bare necessity) and the second (when restrictions were gradually eased and worries were reduced; both coming back to the routine of visiting physical stores, and realizing the convenience of online Food and Grocery shopping, acting accordingly). Analyzing these consumers’ recent reasons to buy Food and Groceries online (seeing them as very rational, more or less forced upon them, and less sustainable), they underlined the merchants’ growth opportunity to attract new consumers, and keep them coming back by attaching more inspirational and emotional values to their shopping experience (see in the picture below what drives consumers to buy Food and Groceries online versus other categories, considering both the importance for purchases in general, and the importance for Food and Groceries purchases). Just a few days later (Amsterdam, June 22, 2020), they announced that “Consumers state that they have made fewer e-commerce purchases in June, slowing down overall growth rates since mid-March” (on the basis of responses from more than 19.000 consumers in The Netherlands, Germany and Norway over a period of three months). (MarketScreener, 2020)
Figure no. 2: What drives consumers to buy Food and Groceries online versus other categories Source: Food and Grocery e-commerce booms and growth is driven by digital-savvy consumers’ necessities rather than desires, AfterPay Insights, June 16, 2020, updated on June 19, 2020 (work cited)
12
According to the “YPO Chief Executive COVID-19 Global Survey”, June 4, 2020 (YPO being a global leadership community of more than 29,000 chief executives in 130 countries; their organizations combined contributing USD9 trillion in annual revenue), the changes in consumer behavior was identified as the second greatest obstacle (44% of respondents) to their business’s viability, while the supply chain disruptions (21% of respondents) were identified as the fifth greatest obstacle. The first identified greatest obstacle was the diminished demand for their company’s products and services (50 % of respondents), while other identified greatest obstacles were as follows: operating restrictions from government (32% of respondents), cash flow issues (28% of respondents), ability to ensure employee health and physical safety (17% of respondents), decreased access to capital (13% of respondents), difficulty in getting employees back to work (12% of respondents), and other (6% of respondents). (Dolan, 2020) As McKinsey’s representatives highlighted in June this year: “The world is looking not just for new things but also for new ways of doing things (especially on the people side, where we need new behaviors, long-term rather than short-term), capabilities, and work ethics… The reality is that many or even most business leaders made choices over the past decades that traded resilience for a perceived increase in shareholder value. Now may be the moment to consider that the era of chipping away at organizational resilience in the name of greater efficiency may have reached its limits. This is not to say that there are no efficiencies to be sought or found, but more that the tradeoff between efficiency and resiliency needs to be defined far more clearly than it has been in recent years”. (Levy et al., 2020) Without doubt, they have perfectly right. Theodor Valentin Purcărea Editor-in-Chief References Berg, J. M. (2019). When silver is gold: Forecasting the potential creativity of initial ideas. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 154, 96–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.08.004 Blum, K. (2020). CMO Spend Survey: CMOs at Odds With C-Suite Colleagues Over COVID-19 Recovery, Gartner, July 9, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.gartner.com/en/marketing/insights/articles/cmo-spend-surveycmos-odd-with-csuite-colleagues-over-covid19-recovery Dolan, S. (2020). Half of Worldwide CEOs Have Seen Diminished Demand for Their Products and Services, eMarketer, Jun 30, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.emarketer.com/content/half-of-worldwide-ceos-have-seendiminished-demand-their-products-services? Levy, C., Mieszala, J.-C., Mysore, M. and Samandari, H. (2020). Coronavirus: 15 emerging themes for boards and executive teams, Risk Practice, McKinsey & Company, June. Retrieved from Coronavirus-15-emerging-themes-forboards-and-executive-teams-vF Ramaswami, R. (2020). Update B2C Digital Commerce Strategies During a Crisis, Gartner, July 2, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.gartner.com/en/marketing/insights/articles/update-b2c-digital-commerce-strategies-during-crisis Roeslmeier, J. (2020). There is No Going Back to Normal: How Jobs & the Workplace will be Affected Permanently, CustomerThink, June 29, 2020. Retrieved from https://customerthink.com/there-is-no-going-back-tonormal-how-jobs-the-workplace-will-be-affected-permanently/? Saltz Gulko, R. (2020). Retail Digital Experience Can Still Satisfy Europeans during COVID-19, Eglobalis, July, 14, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.eglobalis.com/retail-digital-customer-experience-can-still-satisfy-europeansduring-covid-19/
13
*** Supply Chain & Logistics Tech Trends To Watch: Robotic Fulfillment, Returns Optimization, Digital Freight Forwarding, & More, CB Insights Report, July 8, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/supply-chain-trends-2020/? *** How The Leading E-Commerce Platform For Small Businesses Is Expanding Its Retail Footprint, CB Insights, July 9, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.cbinsights.com/research/shopify-strategy-retail-teardown/? *** Food and Grocery e-commerce booms and growth is driven by digital-savvy consumersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; necessities rather than desires, AfterPay Insights, June 16, 2020, updated on June 19, 2020. Retrieved from https://insights.afterpay.nl/food-and-grocery-e-commerce-booms-and-growth-is-driven-by-digital-savvy-consumersnecessities-rather-than-desires.html? *** AfterPay: Consumers state that they have made fewer e-commerce purchases in June, slowing down overall growth rates since mid-March, Press Releases, MarketScreener, 06/22/2020. Retrieved from https://www.marketscreener.com/AFTERPAY-LIMITED-25583593/news/AfterPay-Consumers-state-that-theyhave-made-fewer-e-commerce-purchases-in-June-slowing-down-overa-
The Magazine is the result of a true partnership, by bringing scientists and practitioners together proving the passionate pursuit of knowledge for wisdom, the real passion for acquiring and sharing this knowledge inviting the readers to maturing interdisciplinary dialogue and building a transparent culture network.
14
April 17, 2020, Romanian-American Universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 29th Anniversary: Looking to the Future with Confidence, Solidarity and Empathy Source: https://www.facebook.com/RomanianDistributionCommittee/
April 17, 2020, Romanian-American Universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 29th Anniversary, an Opportunity for Reflection as well as Celebration Source: https://www.facebook.com/HolisticMarketingManagement/
15
Information and Communications Technology New Paradigm of Probabilistic Computing Could Inspire our Thinking through a Future World of Uncertainty -Part 1-
Prof. Eng. Ph.D. Victor GREU Abstract The paper analyses the premises of the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) probabilistic computing paradigm, in a critical point of ICT evolution, where it is largely agreed that Moore Law is going to an end and the future solutions for ICT progress are intensely searched, in order to keep the Information society (IS) toward Knowledge Based Society (KBS) progress pace. Also, the analysis considered the main consequences, for humankind, from this new ICT step with unprecedented challenges, including the economical, social, human behaviour and Earth environment ones. ICT, beyond being the main motor of IS/KBS, is an inspiration model of progress for almost all human activity domains, in many ways, revealing the complex and complicate mutual relations between human creation potential and the ICT advances. The paper analysis and literature quotations confirme, by relevant examples, author’s earlier estimations, that living things or biological systems (especially human brain) will be among the main inspirations/solutions for ICT revolutionary advances, including but not restricting to AI/ML. As main examples, the new technologies inspired by human brain model are analyzed, as this approach is manifest and very much exploited in the ICT development, but for surpassing the performances limits of advanced computing and AI, this is quite the most promising direction, including Pohoiki Springs, a data center which is Intel’s largest neuromorphic computing system that integrates 768 Loihi neuromorphic chips-inspired from the human brain, but being up to 1,000 times faster and 10,000 times more efficiently than conventional processors. As main advances toward unprecedented ICT performances, the paper approaches the ways that software could bring a decisive contribution to the ICT probabilistic computing paradigm. As a conclusion, the solution for such challenges comes naturally from the same human brain reference way of operation, pointing that our algorithms could mimic what human brain makes having fewer data and computing power. Such complex and relevant dependencies underneath the ICT context led to probabilistic computing and could compensate the uncertainties from rough data. From here, a prominent conclusion is revealed, as it is obvious that the combination of these concepts could further inspire many human processes of thinking/decision – our title main idea. Further, the paper also approached quantum computing, which is one of the most promising technology for ICT future, by pointing its relation with ‘probabilistic computing”, confirmed by gradually achievements like probabilistic bits (p-bits). It is confirmed that the actual state-of-art of quantum computing is still in the phase of basics and one of the major difficulties of quantum computing development comes from the specific very low temperatures, as Intel started with the silicon existing base, which revealed higher temperatures of operation. Such examples led to an important conclusion, as the flexibility of approaching diverse techniques/technologies solutions is an inherent feature of the probabilistic computing paradigm that drives this ICT development struggle, due to the logical approach of all events and their chances, in order to select and maximize the expected benefits. The need of flexibility comes also from the complexity and difficulty which characterizes the unprecedented levels of performances of the ICT actual development advances, which are hard to be improved, considering also all their consequences (positive/negative) associated with the context of these evolutions at Earth scale, including IoT, Data Deluge, climate changes, Earth resources fading and social unbalances. This complex and complicate context generates uncertainty, which logically requests a probabilistic approach for almost all decisions and projects, but that is naturally expected to be extended to the individual level, inspiring our thinking by the ways it advances. The final conclusion of the preliminary analysis and premises, is that a paper farther continuation is to be done, in order to obtain more valuable and detailed information about the consequences of the new ICT probabilistic computing paradigm, through all IS/KBS development and even for people’s way of thinking. Keywords: probabilistic computing paradigm, quantum computing, probabilistic bits, Pohoiki Springs, neuromorphic computing system, Loihi neuromorphic chips, human brain JEL Classification: L63; L86; M15; O31; O33
16
Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently -Henry Ford
1. Inspiration for ICT progress and continuing Moore’s Law Humankind evolution is a continuous fight for survival and progress, in the unique and challenging Earth environment. For decades, Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is the main driving factor of this progress, actually in the phase of the Information Society (IS) aiming the Knowledge Based Society (KBS), but also facing unprecedented challenges, including intrinsic economical/social/human behaviour ones and Earth environment on the other side. We have already observed this context trends [16][3], but ICT exponential pace of development and its amazing advances, including IoT, AI, Cloud, BIG DATA or nanotechnology, are highly dynamic factors that need to be timely analysed through all their (positive or negative) consequences at Earth scale. More than these, the recent dramatic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, although far from being plenarily seen or even estimated, show how important is to rethink our strategies of approaching the World evolution, considering the high uncertainties that rule the real processes in IS/KBS. In fact, we also pointed [6][9] that ICT, beyond being the main motor of IS/KBS, is also an inspiration model of progress for almost all human activity domains, in many ways, as our paper will present by actual examples, revealing the complex and complicate mutual relations between human creation potential and the ICT advances. It is sure that these relations are logical, but their complexity and mechanisms are more and more deep and diverse, as ICT influence in IS/KBS and also on humankind behaviour and even evolution is increasing, with consequences that must be timely analysed. That is why it is important to understand how ICT challenges could be identified and approached, in order to keep the progress pace. Still, now we are facing a critical point of ICT evolution, as it is largely agreed that Moore Law is going to an end and the future solutions for ICT progress are intensely searched [6][9][17][12]. On this striving road, long time ago we also expressed that living things or biological systems (especially human brain) will be among the main inspirations/solutions [21], by learning from nature million years research, as it was also confirmed by [8]: “A new paper from researchers working in the UK and Germany dives into how much power the human brain consumes when performing various tasks — and sheds light on how humans might one day build similar computer-based artificial intelligences. Mapping biological systems isn’t as sexy as the giant discoveries that propel new products or capabilities, but that’s because it’s the final discovery — not the decades of painstaking work that lays the groundwork — that tends to receive all the media attention.” Actually, this approach is manifest and very much exploited in the ICT development, but for surpassing the performances limits of advanced computing, AI or networks, this is quite the most promising direction, as many specialists agreed [7]:
17
“Neuromorphic hardware takes a page from the architecture of animal nervous systems, relaying signals via spiking that is akin to the action potentials of biological neurons. This feature allows the hardware to consume far less power and run brain simulations orders of magnitude faster than conventional chips” Step by step the solutions toward brain performances are investigated and pointed, aiming answers to the relevant question: How the human brain succeeds to do such much processing with such low energy consuming relative to conventional computers? Such answers led to the new concept of neuromorphic computing, as it is also mentioned by [10]: „How the Brain Saves Energy by Doing Less ... One of the arguments for neuromorphic computing is the efficiency of the human brain relative to conventional computers. By looking at how the brain works, this argument contends, we can design systems that accomplish more with less power.” Here, contentions could come from the fact that human brain consumes about 20% of human body, but, compared with conventional computers, its efficiency is quite impressive and that is why the actual trend is to mimic its operating features. Coming back to the general ICT progress and Moore Law, the concrete research efforts are intended to improve devices/processors performances (speed; power consuming; chip density) with innovative technologies. Finally, as a good example, Intel, the traditional prominent research leader of technology, appears to have found and implemented a revolutionary solution [4]: “As impressive as computers are becoming, they still pale in comparison to nature’s version – the brain. As such scientists have started designing computer chips that work in a similar way to the brain, using artificial neurons and synapses. Now Intel has unveiled its most powerful “neuromorphic” computing system to date. Named Pohoiki Springs, this system packs in 100 million neurons, putting it on par with the brain of a small mammal… Intel says that Loihi is as much as 1,000 times faster and 10,000 times more efficient at certain tasks than conventional processors. Just recently, for example, it was put to work identifying and categorizing smells in a new form of electronic nose.” More than these, Intel progress strategy will continue to inspire new research in the most advanced fields of ICT (as AI is by far) [11], this confirming our above observation about the ways ICT development could inspire humankind activity: <<The best AI algorithms already use brain-like programs called simulated neural networks, which rely on parallel processing to recognize patterns in data—including objects in images and words in speech. Neuromorphic chips take this idea further by etching the workings of neural networks into silicon. They are less flexible and powerful than the best general-purpose chips, but being specialized to their task makes them very energy efficient, and thus ideal for mobile devices, vehicles, and industrial equipment. The idea of neuromorphic chips has been around for decades, but the technology may finally be ready to find its commercial niche. Across the tech industry, progress in AI has inspired new research into hardware capable of using machine-learning algorithms more efficiently. Chris Eliasmith, a professor who studies neuroscience and computer architectures at the University of Waterloo in Canada, says the biggest challenge with neuromorphic chips in the past has
18
been scaling them up. “This is one thing I really like about Intel entering the space,” he says. “They have the resources to push things ahead quickly.”>> It is sure that this achievement, will stepwise show many implications, as it will be developed, but for now it is more important to understand the ways it learned from human brain – a road that ICT and other domains have to find more on, generally from the biological world [1]: <<Today, Intel announced the readiness of Pohoiki Springs, its latest and most powerful neuromorphic research system providing the computational capacity of 100 million neurons. The cloud-based system will be made available to members of the Intel Neuromorphic Research Community (INRC), extending their neuromorphic work to solve larger, more complex problems.“Pohoiki Springs scales up our Loihi neuromorphic research chip by more than 750 times, while operating at a power level of under 500 watts. The system enables our research partners to explore ways to accelerate workloads that run slowly today on conventional architectures, including high-performance computing (HPC) systems.” –Mike Davies, director of Intel’s Neuromorphic Computing Lab.>> Here we have to notice the speed and the dimensions of revolutionary Loihi chips applications, mainly by scaling – IT most prominent feature we repeatedly emphasized[19][23] as generating the exponential pace of ICT devevelopment: „Pohoiki Springs is a data center rack-mounted system and is Intel’s largest neuromorphic computing system developed to date. It integrates 768 Loihi neuromorphic research chips inside a chassis the size of five standard servers. Loihi processors take inspiration from the human brain. Like the brain, Loihi can process certain demanding workloads up to 1,000 times faster and 10,000 times more efficiently than conventional processors. Pohoiki Springs is the next step in scaling this architecture to assess its potential to solve not just artificial intelligence (AI) problems, but a wide range of computationally difficult problems. Intel researchers believe the extreme parallelism and asynchronous signaling of neuromorphic systems may provide significant performance gains at dramatically reduced power levels compared with the most advanced conventional computers available today.” Further, a relevant comparison of the Loihi smallest system application with the living things computing capacities could just suggest its future evolution/potential: „What the Opportunity for Scale is: In the natural world even some of the smallest living organisms can solve remarkably hard computational problems. Many insects, for example, can visually track objects and navigate and avoid obstacles in real time, despite having brains with well under 1 million neurons. Similarly, Intel’s smallest neuromorphic system, Kapoho Bay, comprises two Loihi chips with 262,000 neurons and supports a variety of real-time edge workloads. Intel and INRC researchers have demonstrated the ability for Loihi to recognize gestures in real time, read Braille using novel artificial skin, orient direction using learned visual landmarks and learn new odor patterns– all while consuming tens of milliwatts of power. These small-scale examples have so far shown excellent scalability, with larger problems running faster and more efficiently on Loihi compared with conventional solutions.”
19
Our future of learning from nature is further justified, as we can see how the mammal species brain evolution folowed similar patterns of scallability, from where actual innovations could surely get benefic inspiration: „...This mirrors the scalability of brains found in nature, from insects to human brains. With 100 million neurons, Pohoiki Springs increases Loihi’s neural capacity to the size of a small mammal brain, a major step on the path to supporting much larger and more sophisticated neuromorphic workloads. The system lays the foundation for an autonomous, connected future, which will require new approaches to real-time, dynamic data processing...Intel’s neuromorphic systems, such as Pohoiki Springs, are still in the research phase and are not intended to replace conventional computing systems. Instead, they provide a tool for researchers to develop and characterize new neuro-inspired algorithms for realtime processing, problem solving, adaptation and learning." Observing this ICT potential, one could think that its future development and performances advances will continue without problems, but here we have to recall our approach of ICT progress perception and in IS/KBS context, as an elusive iceberg tip [16], because of its increasing complexity and inherent challenges. This way we have just arrived to the title main issue, concerning probabilistic computing, because the complicate processes of ICT progress and the struggle to continuously improve performances, while extending applications at Earth scale, is a challenging evolution in an everchanging context that inherently generates uncertainty and probabilistic approaches. 2. ICT’s new paradigm of probabilistic computing In the short history of ICT evolution, at least in the last decades, the role of software components had an increasing impact, which became prominent lately by its overwhelming importance for soft defined devices, equipments or even networks. Still, in the context of the above presented advances toward unprecedented ICT performances, it is quite interesting to see that software could bring a decisive contribution to the next paradigm of ICT [5]: “Today machine learning is rigid and requires massive amounts of data. But AI researchers are attempting to emulate the low-data fluidity and rich representations of human thinking… In nature and in life, more is not necessarily better. A gentle rain is good for the grass, but if it lasts for five days, you may get a raging flood. Rising temperatures can be pleasant, even optimal, until the heat burns, the droughts sear and the polar ice caps start to melt. A long-popular finance theory argues that companies with too much cash on hand will begin to do stupid things. This also applies to data. We are awash in data, and it’s growing at an exponential rate. It often seems as if this tidal wave of data is a necessary prerequisite for computer programs designed to learn. Today’s machine learning programs require huge amounts of data to discover what toddlers can master by crawling around and playing with blocks or simply observing the strange behavior of adults. In fact, an excess of data can quickly overwhelm the ability of human brains to function properly. Humans need a lot less data than machines to generalize about and draw conclusions on matters large and small, simple and complex.”
20
Perhaps a long list of iceberg tips, like the above quoted examples suggest, could be confusing, but we have to recall that the mentioned elusive iceberg tip of ICT context includes a socio-psychological component, which is successfully emphasized by too much cash or data cases, i.e. a clear link with the Date Deluge context where ICT/AI/ML are actually applied. Now it seems that we have come back to the point, linking the computer and human brain performance toward the above desired asymptotic evolution of ICT/AI (the art of the possible), as it is further detailed: “For instance, training a deep learning algorithm to recognize a category of objects — say, chairs or dogs — with great accuracy is not easy, but distinguishing Person A from Person B is even harder and requires even more data. If you teach an artificial intelligence (AI) program that a robin, an eagle and a duck are all birds, the program still may not recognize a cardinal or a peacock as one of our feathered friends. That would require feeding the algorithm tens or even hundreds of thousands of images, capturing a massive amount of variation in size, shape, profile, texture, lighting and angle. Handling large amounts of data is cumbersome, slow and expensive. Anyone who has tried training a convolutional neural network (CNN), which analyzes visual imagery, or a generative adversarial network (GAN), which pits two neural networks against each other in a zero-sum game, knows the large computational effort and multiple passes of training data required to achieve a robust level of accuracy.” As a conclusion, the solution for such challenges comes naturally from the same human brain reference way of operation: “It would be much more efficient if an algorithm could develop ideas about what makes a human with less data and computational power, easily test them and learn from successes and failures.” It is also surprising and very interesting, how shortly we can arrive to such complex and relevant dependencies underneath the context iceberg, as the promising strategies of ICT progress are there finally found: “One answer to this challenge is probabilistic computing, an increasingly vital component of AI and a way of addressing the uncertainties inherent in so-called natural data — the kind of real-world data that humans continually process, often without conscious intent. Advances in probabilistic computing make it increasingly likely that we’ll soon be able to build machines that are capable of understanding, predicting and making decisions with limited amounts of data.” With simpler words, both probabilistic computing paradigm and uncertainties of real/future World context are here splendidly revealed, as it is obvious that the combination of these concepts could further inspire many human processes of thinking/decision – our title main idea. More than these, the same quotation brings together the unique capacity of human brain to efficiently process complex data/scenarios, otherwise than computers.
21
Still, here we have to mention that probabilistic computing is a very general concept, linking probabilistic approaches of different techniques/technologies, as it will be further presented and also emphasized by the MIT Probabilistic Computing Project [18]: “We aim to improve our ability to engineer artificial intelligence, reverse-engineer natural intelligence, and deploy applications that increase our collective intelligence and well-being. We do this by integrating probabilistic inference, generative models, and Monte Carlo methods into the building blocks of software, hardware, and other computational systems. For example, we have developed high-level probabilistic programming languages, automated Bayesian data modelling systems, Bayesian inverse graphics approaches to 3D computer vision, and near-optimal algorithms, circuits, and hardware architectures for Monte Carlo. We test our results by collaborating with domain experts on practical applications.” Now it is important to notice that inspiring from human brain is not the only source for ICT general progress and especially for AI/ML expected advances, but it will be more than obvious that the ways the natural evolution optimized it, provides many learned lessons which could be useful for other strategies leading to probabilistic approaches. Quantum computing is one of the most promising technology for ICT future, but it is interesting to observe its relation with ‘probabilistic computing”, as it expressed by [13]: “Even as the quantum computing community chases reliable systems, innovation continues around developing techniques that ‘mimic’ some of quantum computing’s capabilities but run on less complicated machines. Welcome to ‘probabilistic computing” or at least a step in that direction. Researchers from Purdue University and Tohoku University published a proof-of-concept study in Nature last week in which they created and used probabilistic bits (p-bits) to factorize integers up to 945. The work, led by Kerem Casmari (Purdue) and Shunsuke Fukami (Tohoku), seems to be well suited for classes of optimization (energy cost) problems. If this sounds a bit like adiabatic quantum annealing, you’re correct, although the authors say it can be also used to emulate gate-based quantum computing.” In the same time, we have to mention that quantum computing is just at the study phase (and p-bits are poorer q-bits), although mainstream companies like Intel or IBM are very advanced in creating clusters of q-bits [2]: <<Intel today reported (Nature) successful control a ‘silicon spin’ qubit at 100 degrees Kelvin – that’s a relatively balmy departure from the frigid milliKelvin environment most qubits require. Last week, the National Science Foundation and IBM, AWS, and Microsoft launched a pilot program to provide expanded access to their quantum platforms. Yesterday, quantum tool-maker Q-CTRL announced added funding from In-Q-Tel, the not-for-profit strategic investor that identifies technology solutions to support the national security communities of the U.S. “Our demonstration of hot qubits that can operate at higher temperatures while maintaining high fidelity paves the way to allow a variety of local qubit control options without impacting qubit performance,” said Jim Clarke, director of quantum hardware, Intel Labs, in the announcement.>> Here we could also see which are the concrete (rough) expectations for the development to get over the studies phase, with the private and public support this promising technology already has:
22
“Given the amount of public and private effort now being poured into quantum development, it may be reasonable to expect practical advances will occur sooner rather than later – a couple of years versus a decade” We further observe that, beyond the fundamental difficulties of the domain, it could be interesting, on the other side, that the technological/commercial competition is, in this race for supremacy, very intense: “...here’s an interesting perspective from noted quantum researcher and blogger Scott Aaronson (UT, Austin) from an excellent talk[I] two weeks ago on quantum computing generally and Google’s work to achieve Quantum Supremacy: [Finding practical applications] is a major, major focus of quantum algorithms research right now because we know that we’re going to have these noisy devices with 50 or 100 or 200 qubits over the course of the next decade. And we don’t really know what they’re good for. This demonstration of quantum supremacy, which Google just did, was great, but of course it would be even better if we could do something useful.” Although there are many signals in the last decade, the actual state-of-art of quantum computing is still in the phase of basics, as it is further commented from the same (recent!) source: “I think the best shot that we have for doing something useful with these noisy nearterm devices is going to be to do some kind of quantum simulation, probably of some materials of some condensed matter system. Although, [if] we’re really lucky then maybe even in chemistry. That will tell the scientists in the relevant area – the material scientists, that condensed matter physicists, the chemists – something interesting about their system that they didn’t already know. That would be a tremendously exciting next milestone. And it is possible that we could achieve that using noisy devices.” A similar stage is confirmed for the area of possible applications of the expected advances of quantum computing, although AI/ML is among the most probable targets of the higher performances: << “There’s a lot of talk about other applications for near-term quantum computers, like, for example, for optimization and machine learning. It is crucial for everyone to understand that those applications are very, very speculative, meaning that even if you have a perfect quantum computer, we still don’t know what kind of speed-ups [they] are going to give you [over classical systems].” So is the glass half-full or half-empty? >> We can also observe from these comments that one of the major difficulties of quantum computing development comes from the specific very low temperatures and this is why the researchers from Intel started with the silicon existing base, which revealed higher temperatures: “Let’s start with Intel. One advantage it has by working with silicon dots is it leverages existing semiconductor manufacturing and packaging methods. So far Intel has said little about its quantum processor but it has suggested it too will eventually provide access via the web. The recent work QuTech[II] demonstrates steady progress and potentially an area of advantage over competing superconducting approaches...” Quoting from the information released by QuTech, which is the advanced research center for Quantum Computing and Quantum Internet, a collaboration founded in 2014 by Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) and the Netherlands Organisation for Applied
23
Scientific Research (TNO), the same source [2] found confirmation for the silicon approach advantages: “[L]eading solid-state approaches function only at temperatures below 100 millikelvin, where cooling power is extremely limited, and this severely affects the prospects of practical quantum computation. Recent studies of electron spins in silicon have made progress towards a platform that can be operated at higher temperatures by demonstrating long spin lifetimes, gate-based spin readout and coherent single-spin control. However, a high-temperature two-qubit logic gate has not yet been demonstrated. Here we show that silicon quantum dots can have sufficient thermal robustness to enable the execution of a universal gate set at temperatures greater than one kelvin.” Regarding the expectations for the first devices to be developed based on quantum computing, we notice that, even for the elementary high-temperature two-qubit logic gate, the implementation phase is still waiting, without speaking about the aimed concrete (high) speed which the devices should provide. On the other side, it is fair to mention that all the last decade analyses on quantum computing showed very optimistic estimates about higher speeds compared with conventional computers, due to inherent physics advantages at atomic level, as the more impressive expectations are in the quantum cryptography domain [3][2][17][25]. For understanding the complexity and uncertainties of the winding road of ICT advances, from the high tops it is already sitting, here in the difficult evolution of quantum computing revolution, the development step by step, along with the probabilistic approach, is essential [14]: “As the amazing progress enabled by the continued miniaturization of the field-effecttransistor slows down, there is developing interest in non-traditional computing as a path to energy-efficiency and increased functionality … such path based on the concept of probabilistic or p-bits that can be scalably built with present-day technology used in magnetic memory devices … p-bits can be robustly placed in between deterministic bits that are at the heart of digital computers and quantum bits that are at the heart of quantum computers … these p-bits can be used as building blocks for constructing autonomous pcircuits that can accelerate many current applications like optimization, invertible logic and machine learning algorithms, while providing a bridge to the Noisy-Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era quantum computers…” Following the gradual approach of the development difficulties, in the case of this pbit intermediate technological innovation, a first concrete achievement, due to the algorithm’s optimization, is further announced as: “…a recent experimental demonstration of an 8-bit p-computer implementing a quantum-inspired optimization algorithm. An underlying theme throughout this work is an Atoms to Systems approach that includes emerging materials and novel phenomena (e.g. spintronics, quantum materials), transport theory and device physics, circuit simulation, system-level behavioral synthesis (e.g. using FPGAs), and an understanding of Machine Learning and Quantum Computing algorithms that drive the search for new and specialized devices.” Considering these steps, we can still notice that they are built with realism, pointing from the beginning emerging materials, transport theory, device physics, circuit simulation,
24
system-level behavioural synthesis or even Machine Learning and Quantum Computing algorithms, i.e. the implementation phases which have to be progressively done. Also we can observe the needed flexibility of the ICT development strategies, in this epoque where diverse techniques/technologies are approached, like magnetic memory devices, p-bits, deterministic bits that are at the heart of digital computers and quantum bits that are at the heart of quantum computers, without missing a future bridge to the NoisyIntermediate-Scale Quantum era quantum computers. In fact, this flexibility is an inherent feature of the probabilistic computing paradigm that drives this ICT promising development direction, due to the logical approach of all events and their chances, in order to select and maximize the expected benefits. In our opinion, the need of flexibility comes also from the complexity and difficulty which characterizes the unprecedented levels of performances of the ICT actual development advances, which are hard to be improved, considering also all their consequences (positive/negative) associated with the context of these evolutions at Earth scale, including IoT, Data Deluge, climate changes, Earth resources fading and social unbalances. Perhaps now it is obvious that this complex and complicate context generates uncertainty, which logically requests a probabilistic approach for almost all decisions and projects. This probabilistic approach necessity is naturally expected to be extended to the individual level, but here we have to observe both the benefic consequences of ICT, including the inspiration of our thinking by the ways it advances, but also the less desired consequences, including the above mentioned and our increasing dependence of what ICT products, services mean for every person or community. Considering this preliminary analysis and the presented premises, a further continuation is to be done, in order to obtain more valuable and detailed information about the consequences of the new ICT probabilistic computing paradigm, through all IS/KBS development and even for peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s way of thinking. 3. Conclusions In the actual context of ICT exponential pace of development and its amazing advances, the paper approached the premises of the ICT probabilistic computing paradigm in a critical point of ICT evolution, where it is largely agreed that Moore Law is going to an end and the future solutions for ICT progress are intensely searched, in order to keep the IS/KBS progress pace. Also, our analysis considered the main consequences, for humankind, from this new ICT step with unprecedented challenges, including the economical, social, human behaviour and Earth environment ones. ICT, beyond being the main motor of IS/KBS, is an inspiration model of progress for almost all human activity domains, in many ways, revealing the complex and complicate mutual relations between human creation potential and the ICT advances. The paper analysis and literature quotations confirmed, by relevant examples, our earlier estimations, that living things or biological systems (especially human brain) will be among the main inspirations/solutions for ICT revolutionary advances, including but not restricting to AI/ML.
25
As main examples, the new technologies inspired by human brain model are analyzed, as this approach is manifest and very much exploited in the ICT development, but for surpassing the performances limits of advanced computing and AI, this is quite the most promising direction, including Pohoiki Springs, a data center which is Intel’s largest neuromorphic computing system that integrates 768 Loihi neuromorphic chips-inspired from the human brain, but being up to 1,000 times faster and 10,000 times more efficiently than conventional processors. Among the advances toward unprecedented ICT performances, we also approached the ways that software could bring a decisive contribution to the ICT probabilistic computing paradigm. As a conclusion, the solution for such challenges comes naturally from the same human brain reference way of operation, pointing that our algorithms could mimic what human brain makes having fewer data and computing power. Such complex and relevant dependencies underneath the ICT context led to probabilistic computing and could compensate the uncertainties from rough data. From here, a prominent conclusion is revealed, as it is obvious that the combination of these concepts could further inspire many human processes of thinking/decision – our title main idea. Further, the paper also approached quantum computing, which is one of the most promising technology for ICT future, by pointing its relation with ‘probabilistic computing”, confirmed by gradually achievements like probabilistic bits (p-bits). It is confirmed that the actual state-of-art of quantum computing is still in the phase of basics and one of the major difficulties of quantum computing development comes from the specific very low temperatures, as Intel started with the silicon existing base, which revealed higher temperatures of operation. Such examples led to another important conclusion, as the flexibility of approaching diverse techniques/technologies solutions is an inherent feature of the probabilistic computing paradigm that drives this ICT development struggle, due to the logical approach of all events and their chances, in order to select and maximize the expected benefits. The need of flexibility comes also from the complexity and difficulty which characterizes the unprecedented levels of performances of the ICT actual development advances, which are hard to be improved, considering also all their consequences (positive/negative) associated with the context of these evolutions at Earth scale, including IoT, Data Deluge, climate changes, Earth resources fading and social unbalances. It is obvious that this complex and complicate context generates uncertainty, which logically requests a probabilistic approach for almost all decisions and projects, but that is naturally expected to be extended to the individual level, inspiring our thinking by the ways it advances. After this preliminary analysis and premises, a paper farther continuation is to be done, in order to obtain more valuable and detailed information about the consequences of the new ICT probabilistic computing paradigm, through all IS/KBS development and even for people’s way of thinking. REFERENCES [1]*** Intel Scales Neuromorphic Research System to 100 Million Neurons, March 18, 2020, https://newsroom.intel.com/news/intel-scales-neuromorphic-research-system-100-million-neurons/#gs.8os7kd
26
[2]John Russell, Quantum Bits: Intel Turns up the Heat; NSF, IBM, AWS, M’soft Collaborate; Q-CTRL Takes in Cash, April 15, 2020,https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/04/15/ quantum-bits-intel-turns-up-the-heat-nsf-ibm-aws-msoft-collaborate-q-ctrltakes-in-cash/ [3]Victor Greu, Using the information and communications technology data deluge from a semantic perspective of a dynamic challenge: What to learn and what to ignore? – (Part 2), Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 10, Issue 4, Year 2019. [4]Michael Irving, Intel's new neuron-based computer matches brain of a small mammal, March 19, 2020, https://newatlas.com/computers/intel-neuromorphic-computer-pohoiki-springs/ [5]Michael Kozlov, Ashish Kulkarni, Probabilistic programming and the art of the possible, May16, 2019, https://www.weareworldquant.com/en/thought-leadership/probabilistic-programming-and-the-art-of-the-possible/ [6]Victor Greu, The information and communications technology is driving artificial intelligence to leverage refined knowledge for the World sustainable development – (Part 2), Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 10, Issue 1, Year 2019. [7]Sandeep Ravindran, Building a Silicon Brain, Computer chips based on biological neurons may help simulate larger and more-complex brain models, Apr 30, 2019, https://www.the-scientist.com/features/building-a-silicon-brain-65738, [8]Joel Hruska, The human brain’s remarkably low power consumption, and how computers might mimic its efficiency, July 9, 2014, https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/185984-the-human-brains-remarkably-low-power-consumption-and-howcomputers-might-mimic-its-efficiency [9]Victor Greu, Information and communications technologies go greener beyond IOTbehind is all the earth-Part1, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 7, Issue 2, Year 2016. [10]Katherine Derbyshire, How The Brain Saves Energy By Doing Less, March 15th, 2018, https://semiengineering.com/how-the-brain-saves-energy-by-doing-less/ [11]Will Knight, Intel’s New Chips Are More Brain-Like Than Ever, January 9, 2018, https://www.technologyreview.com /2018/01/09/67469/ intels-new-chips-are-more-brain-like-than-ever/ [12]Victor Greu et all, Human and artificial intelligence driven incentive-operation model and algorithms for a multi-purpose integrated crowdsensing-crowdsourcing scalable system, Proceedings of International Conference Communications 2018, (Politehnica University of Bucharest, Military Technical Academy, IEEE Romania), June 2018. [13]John Russell, Is Is There a Probabilistic Computer in Your Future, September 23, 2019, https://www.hpcwire.com/2019/09/23/is-there-a-probabilistic-computer-in-your-future/ [14]Kerem Camsari, Probabilistic Computing: From Materials and Devices to Circuits and Systems, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Purdue University 2020, https://engineering.purdue.edu/ECE/Events/2020/probabilisticcomputing [15]Niko Mohr, Holger Hürtgen, Achieving business impact with data - A comprehensive perspective on the insights value chain, Digital McKinsey 04.2018 Copyright © McKinsey & Company www.mckinsey.com [16]Victor Greu, Searching the right tracks of new technologies in the earth race for a balance between progress and survival, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 3, Issue1, Year 2012. [17]Mike Sirius, How artificial intelligence and innovation will interact, June 5, 2017, Idea Drop Ltd, http://ideadrop.co/artificial-intelligence-innovation/ [18]Vikash K. Mansinghka, MIT Probabilistic Computing Project, 2020, http://probcomp.csail.mit.edu/ [19]Victor Greu, The Exponential Development of the Information and Communications Technologies – A Complex Process Which is Generating Progress Knowledge from People to People, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 4, Issue2, Year 2013 [20]*** , Transforming data into knowledge, Collective Learning group at the MIT Media Lab, 2017, https://www.media. mit.edu/ groups/collective-learning/overview/. [21]Victor GREU, Information and Communications Technologies are Learning from Nature’s “Research” to Push the Performance Limits, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 5, Issue 1, Year 2014 [22]Mudassir Khan, Big data analytics emerging trends, technology and innovations for the future business in the global market, International Journal of Scientific Research and Review, Volume 8, Issue 2, 2019. [23]Victor Greu, Extending information and communications technologies’ impact on knowledge based society through artificial and collective intelligence –(Part 3), Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 9, Issue 3, Year 2018. [24]Robert W. Lucky, Back To The Elusive Future We looked back for inspiration on looking forward, IEEE Spectrum, Jan 2020. [25]Rohit Akiwatka, Introduction to cognitive computing, may 2019, https://channels. theinnovationenterprise.com/articles/ introduction-to-cognitive-computing
27
New Technologies in Marketing as Competitive Advantage
by Cosmin TÄ&#x201A;NASE Abstract Sophisticated technology is drastically changing the society including consumer behaviour and their purchasing patterns. Many companies are already actively combining IoT technology, mobile applications, smart home appliances and other consumer electronics devices in multiple marketing communication channels. Marketing Managers are increasingly starting to direct company's communication towards modern marketing channels such as mobile and online with traditional channels slowly being replaced. New technologies in retail marketing, such as NFC and Bluetooth LE, offer a wide range of opportunities for reaching consumers in various creative ways. Soon, integrated multi-channel marketing strategies will include a seamless flow of personalized brand's messages through a number of inter-connected channels. By recognizing the value of new technologies in marketing and by implementing them, companies can achieve strong competitive advantage and a greater return on investment. Keywords: Technology, Multi-channel marketing, Competitive advantage, Consumer behaviour, Shopping experience, Brand perception JEL Classification: L81, M31
Technology today is developing so rapidly that its continual improvements are getting increasingly difficult to keep the pace with. Companies which own sophisticated technology are setting a new standard of doing business for the whole industry. At the moment, digital transformation of society is taking place so performing marketing activities through new technologies can be a strong competitive advantage for the company. We can expect that future technological trends will make buyer behaviour incomparable to what it is today. Integrated multi-
28
channel marketing communications of the future will include a seamless flow of company’s communications through various inter-connected channels. In a decade from now, revolutionary marketing innovations combined with technologies that are yet to be developed, will have a significant effect on society behaviour and the consumer lifestyle. Today mobile technology has immense influence on marketing communication and purchase decisions. Mobile channel is becoming the leading communication channel because it enables a direct two-way communication between companies and consumers in real time. Apart from interaction with the brand they are interested in, consumers look for unique brand experience. Companies which know how to provide a memorable user experience, via any marketing channel, without a doubt will gain top positions in consumers’ perception. With so many brands out there fighting for consumers’ attention, it is essential that companies ensure solid brand recognition. To do that, they need to be different and better in all aspects of business, especially in their approach to consumers. In practice, the main reason why many companies perform with average financial results and lower market share can often be found in low enthusiasm to keep up with the newest technological trends. Lack of financial funds to invest in modern IT equipment and software is another justification from management side, who forget to take into account that solid back-office IT infrastructure is crucial for marketing operations. Many books provide general theoretical insight into possible sources of competitive advantage. However, practical suggestions and implications on how to use new technologies to improve specific dimensions and metrics of marketing can seldom be found. Marketing Managers of the last century didn’t have at disposal modern technologies, so they had to base their decision-making on their own judgement or intuition, and even using “trial and error” method to discover what consumers want, need and like. Without technology which would help them obtain essential data about the market, companies were often misled and their marketing campaigns had weaker chances of success. Market research would take too long and management would receive research results too late to be able to react in due time because fast changes on the market require constant monitoring, flexibility and immediate actions in order to remain “in the game”. Companies had no easy way of finding if customers’ satisfaction with company’s products and services is beyond their expectations or below them nor to determine exact reasons of weak sales results and low market share. Today companies have an abundance of modern technologies at hand. However, many companies still haven’t adapted their business to 21st century market ways of doing business. It seems as if implementation of new technologies is something which they like to postpone. Today it is possible to do entire market segmentation process by using only data from existing databases, without having to do market research and environment analysis from scratch. Companies have been systematically collecting and keeping data on their customers for the past 15-20 years, mostly through loyalty program cards. Collected data includes consumers’ personal data, purchasing patterns, details of purchasing transactions, favourite sales channels, products bought, list of complaints etc.
29
Demographic, economic, psychographic and behaviouristic characteristics serve the companies to predict future purchases of each consumer segment and to plan production, orders, procurement, sales volume, forecast revenues and profit. Marketing Managers need to know how to use the huge potential of big data and information technologies in order to collect data which is important for the company including data on consumers’ attitudes and perceptions of the brand, perceived quality of service, appropriateness of prices, distribution channels, brand position compared to competition, brand awareness, etc. In service industry, each moment of truth counts and official website is the consumers’ first contact with the service provider. Website load time can play a major role in the eyes of a new consumer. Too long waiting for the web page to load can be the one and only reason why a consumer gave up and went on to search online for another service provider. Explanation is simple: consumers prefer brands which they can trust and which are dependable and if the website seems unstable and unreliable, customer will instantly perceive the company as such. Service characteristics and moments of truth perceived by every client will sum up to define a complete “product” of a service provider, as perceived through the eyes of the clients. If customers perceive higher quality than expected, their experience with the service will be more positive and their satisfaction higher. Competitive Advantage Marketing Manager’s combination of communication channels will affect company’s ability to stand out from competitors and its competitive advantage. Implementation of new technologies will surely contribute to better marketing performance and better business results. Most common sources of competitive advantage are specific advantages related to elements of marketing mix as well as relationship advantages with consumers, employees, vendors, distributers and supply chain partners. As a result of competitive advantages, companies can enjoy various benefits, such as higher barriers to entry for new entrants into the market, lower expenses and higher earnings - which subsequently lead to increased profitability and larger market share. According to DMA research (Digital Marketing Institute, 2016), an average consumer uses five different technological devices each day, including: smartphone, desktop computer or laptop at work, personal laptop, tablet and Smart TV. Companies need to understand the significant role which technology plays in lives of today’s consumers, and try to design user experience and relevant personalized content which will attract target consumers. The idea is not about just seizing this opportunity and reaching out to prospects directly through all channels available (companies doing so are often perceived as intrusive and are therefore ignored by the consumer). On the contrary, communication should be personalized and adjusted to a particular phase of consumers’ buying process. The fact is that consumers perceive the same message differently at different phases of their decision journey. Companies which own sophisticated technology are setting a new standard of doing business for the whole industry. Performing marketing activities through new technologies can be a strong competitive advantage for the company. By recognizing the value of new technologies in
30
marketing and by implementing them together with established marketing know-how, a greater return on investment can be achieved. A successful business model intended for operating at 21st century market has to include new technologies in marketing. Companies which keep postponing implementation of new technologies, lose the opportunity to connect with their consumers in the most suitable way. In practice, the main reason why many companies perform with average financial results and lower market share can often be found in low enthusiasm to keep up with the newest technological trends. Lack of financial funds to invest in new technologies, modern IT equipment and software is just a justification from management side, who forget to take into account that solid technological infrastructure is crucial for marketing operations. Mobile channel is becoming a leading channel because unlike other channels, here companies are able to get through to consumers directly, providing benefits to consumers such as unique brand experience and greater real-time interaction. Chances are that all of the above will result in greater brand recognition and higher brand loyalty on customer side. Depending on the industry, the aspect of new technologies in marketing will have a stronger or weaker role in creating competitive advantage and perceived better position. After conducting market segmentation and detailed analysis of customer segments, a company will find out which segments recognize and use technology more and which technologies in marketing they value most. Marketing Managers are increasingly starting to direct company's communication towards modern channels such as mobile and online. At the same time, traditional channels a.k.a. mainstream media are slowly being put in second place, mostly because digital channels are relatively cost-effective compared to traditional ones which are often too expensive and too complicated for an average (small or medium-size) company. New marketing campaign methods in mobile market are more effective than traditional ones, even though competition is intensifying day by day. With advanced technology allowing mass usage of smart communication devices, a change in traditional consumer purchasing behaviour is changing the society beyond recognition. Over 6 billion people are using mobile phones daily therefore mobile devices are affecting a change in purchasing patterns and buyer behaviour which existed over the last century. With Internet having become the first point of contact between companies and consumers, companies are now given a chance to affect consumersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; beliefs about the brand or the product solely on online user experience. It is recommended that companies continuously learn on infinite possibilities which online, mobile and virtual space offer. Understanding and using new technologies will help companies improve consumer experience in all marketing communication channels. If companies combine IoT (Internet of Things) technology, mobile applications, positioning systems and smart consumer electronic technology, then their marketing messages will be consistent and seamlessly delivered to consumers. It is well-known that all marketing activities should not be focused in one channel and that the same message should be systematically driven through several channels. Similarly, it is important to implement new technologies in more marketing channels and not focus only on some of them, e.g. just online. When allocating financial funds to marketing activities, companies give priority to
31
channels which are most used for communication, direct contact and interaction with consumers. In case companies lack resources to implement omni-channel marketing strategy, a multi-channel marketing strategy can also provide the company with desired results. Whichever combination of channels a company decides on, it is important to have consumers in mind, to pay attention to where they are, how they feel, what they are doing and who they are with at a certain moment, in order to be most receptive to a certain marketing communication received at that moment Conclusion Official website, in-store Wi-Fi and digital displays are must-have technologies because almost every company today has them. Other technologies are optional but can prove to be a source of differentiation from competition. In order to successfully reach consumers, companies have to update their outdated technologies and adjust integrated marketing communication through all marketing channels accordingly. In practice, one of the main reasons why some companies perform with average financial results and lower market share can be found in low enthusiasm to keep up with technological trends or low investment in new technologies. Today, businesses have an abundance of modern technologies at hand. However, many small and medium-sized companies still haven’t adapted their business to 21st century business conditions and new ways of interacting with consumers. Surprisingly, it seems that implementation of new technologies is something which they like to postpone. Except for following new trends in marketing communication, medium-sized and large companies should make sure that marketing department has up-to-date IT equipment and software at hand in the office because they are essential for quality marketing operations. References [1] Da Gama, A. P. (2012), “Marketing audits: The forgotten side of management?”, Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, Vol. 20, No. 3-5, pp. 212-222. [2] Stokes R., The Minds of Quirk (2013), “eMarketing – the Essential Guide to Marketing in a Digital World”, 5th edition, Quirk Education (Pty) Ltd. [3] Cvitanović, Petra Leonora, New Technologies in Marketing as Competitive Advantage (September 6, 2018). 2018 ENTRENOVA Conference Proceedings.
[4] Anderson, J.C., Kumar, N. and Narus, J.A. (2007) Value Merchants: Demonstrating and Documenting Superior Value in Business Markets, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School. [5] Crain D.W. and Abraham S. (2008) ‘Using value-chain analysis to discover customers’ strategic needs’, Strategy & Leadership, 36(4): 29–39. [6] Day, G.S. (2011) ‘Closing the Marketing Capabilities Gap’, Journal of Marketing, 75, July, 183–95. [7] Jonk, G., Handschuh, M. and Niewiem S. (2008) ‘The battle of the value chains: new specialised versus old hybrids’, Strategy & Leadership, 36(2): 24–9.
32
Recovering From a Never Faced Economic Disruption, and Advancing on the Path to the Next Normal
Matei PURCĂREA Abstract It is a real need of restarting economies, considering major risks, restoring confidence, and prioritizing customers’ valuable problems to solve. It is the right time to better understand how to adequately manage the economic risk of health shocks, offering business contingency planners a practical framework in which to develop and execute their plans. It is a real chance to build a more inclusive and receptive (recovered) economy, managing the economy wisely, acknowledging the incomplete knowledge of our own knowledge’s limits, and seizing opportunities, valorizing innovation. Keywords: Recovered Economy; Economic Disruption; Major Risks; Next Normal; Innovation JEL Classification: A11-14; B10; D01, 21, 40, 78, 80; E02; F00; I00; L20; M21; M31; O10; O31
Restarting economies: considering major risks, restoring confidence, and prioritizing customers’ valuable problems to solve We are witnessing the continuous work of the governments and organizations toward containing COVID-19, and the businesses’ struggling toward keeping the steps with the new normal, toward surviving and thriving through and after (when it will come this after…) the COVID-19 crisis, the business impact of COVID-19 manifesting in powerful ways, even disastrous in some significant cases, being hard to see a sudden recovery for these last ones. A MKOR Consulting research (conducted between April 25-30 on a sample of 243 companies: entrepreneurial businesses, 89%; multinational companies, 5%; NGOs, 2%; other type of
33
organizations, 4%) about COVID-19 pandemics impact on business environment in Romania revealed, for instance, that the majority of respondents (91%) felt affected by this epidemics (with an average total impact of -10.2% for the current year, the mentioned figures being in line with the European Commission forecast estimates warning a decrease of -7.5%), 95% of respondents taking measures to survive the new coronavirus crisis (the respondents from the consumer goods industry being the most prudent, with a record number of 6.5 measures taken on average, followed by those from industries such as consulting, automotive and tourism, which took an average of 4.5 measures; from the point of view of the size of their organizations, the sample consisted of 67% micro-enterprises, 22% small enterprises, 8% medium-sized enterprises and 3% large enterprises). Exactly twelve years ago the Society for Applied Microbiology let us now “A history of influenza” epidemics (annual epidemics being due to antigenic drift) and pandemics (which are occurring at 10 to 50 years intervals being due to new virus subtypes resulting from virus reassortment), in that framework being underlined from the very beginning that: “Nothing has been introduced during the past 100 years to affect the recurrent pattern of epidemics and pandemics; and our future in the new century is clearly indicated by our past”. (Potter, 2008) On the other hand, as highlighted recently by the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are some key differences between Influenza (Flu, which is caused by infection with influenza viruses) and COVID-19 (which is caused by infection with a new coronavirus (called SARS-CoV-2), despite the fact that they are are both contagious respiratory illnesses, being hard to tell the difference between them based on symptoms alone (some of the symptoms of flu and COVID-19 being similar), and that is why to confirm a diagnosis it is necessary to do a test (both can have varying degrees of signs and symptoms, ranging from no symptoms/asymptomatic to severe symptoms). These are difficult times, and there is no doubt that it takes time to restart economies, being also necessary to restore confidence, to facilitate both demand (by making money available to circulate), and employment capacity to satisfy it, valorizing companies’ marketing function (which has as the prime asset the professional marketers) as the businesses’ driving force in producing and maintaining the levels of profitable revenue, being creative and effective in managing resources, which can be redistributed so as to ensure the best ROMI, on the basis of the adequate understanding of the cost, benefit and contribution to the generation of sustainable profitable revenue of all marketing activities (beginning with the maintaining of the levels of profitable revenue, knowing how dangerous can be to cut the marketing budget considering the implications). (Watkis, 2020) There is also no doubt within the current crisis that innovation (on the way to unlocking post crisis growth) is really a choice, being a real need of leaders “to reDiscover customer needs and Evolve their business models to meet those needs”, as highlighted recently by McKinsey’s representatives, who recommended to clearly define and prioritize customers’ valuable problems to solve by using an equation as shown in the figure below. (Bar Am et al., 2020)
34
Figure no. 1: Equation to use with valuable problems to solve Source: Bar Am, J., Furstenthal, L., Jorge, F. and Roth, E. (2020). Innovation in a crisis: Why it is more critical than ever, McKinsey & Company, Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice, June 2020 (work cited)
The Visual Capitalist (Vancouver, BC, Canada), well-known for creating visual content focused on the latest trends, offered recently a suggestive graphic by using data from a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey of 347 risk analysts with regard to the ranking of the likelihood of major risks (defined as uncertain events or conditions with potentially significantly negative impact on different countries and industries) faced in the aftermath of the pandemic, considering the 31 risks grouped in the WEFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s report into major categories (Economic, 10 risks; Societal, 9 risks, Geopolitical, 6 risks; Technological, 4 risks; Environmental, 2 risks), the economic factors being ranked high (see the figure below). (Ghosh, 2020) According to the above mentioned WEF report the first four risks are economic risks (Prolonged recession of the global economy, Surge in bankruptcies - big firms and SMEs - and a wave of industry consolidation, Failure of industries or sectors in certain countries to properly recover, High levels of structural unemployment, especially youth), the fifth risk is a geopolitical risk (Tighter restrictions on the cross-border movement of people and goods), followed by other three economic risks (Weakening of fiscal positions in major economies, Protracted disruption of global supply chains, and Economic collapse of an emerging market or developing economy), then by a technological risk (Cyberattacks and data fraud due to sustained shift in working patterns) as the ninth risk, and a societal risk (Another global outbreak of COVID-19 or different infectious disease) as the tenth risk, while the eleventh risk (Additional unemployment from accelerated workforce automation) is also a technological risk, the twelfth risk (Exploitation of COVID-19 crisis for geopolitical advantage) being also a geopolitical risk (to name but a few). The societal and geopolitical factors took more importance with regard to the ranking of the risk considered to be of the greatest concern for the world (as shown in the next figure below), the first two risks are economic risks (Prolonged global recession, 58,5%; High unemployment, 43,8%), the third risk is a societal risk (Another disease outbreak, 40, 1%), then the following three are also economic risks (Weakening major economies, 39,2%; Industries fail to recover, 35,4%; More bankruptcies/consolidation, 35,2%), the seventh risk is a geopolitical risk (More restricted travel/trade movement, 34%), the following two are also economic risks (Emerging market collapse, 33,7%; Prolonged supply chain disruption, 33,7%), while the tenth risk (to also name but a few) is also a geopolitical risk (Geopolitical exploitation of COVID-19 crisis, 28,5%). In other words, there is a clear evidence of the significant importance of the economic risks.
35
Figure no. 2: What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World, Visual Capitalist, on the basis of data from a WEF survey of 347 risk analysts Source: Ghosh, I. (2020). What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World, Visual Capitalist, June 24, 2020 (work cited)
36
Figure no. 3: Greatest concern for the world, WEF COVID-19 Risks Outlook Source: Ghosh, I. (2020). Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World, Visual Capitalist, June 24, 2020 (work cited)
37
Adequately managing the economic risk of health shocks, offering business contingency planners a practical framework in which to develop and execute their plans. A real chance to build a more inclusive and receptive (recovered) economy We recently came across an article of Klaus Schwab (Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum) and Thierry Malleret (Co-Founder, Monthly Barometer) – entitled “COVID-19's legacy: This is how to get the Great Reset right” – announced as accompanying the launch of the new book (of the above mentioned co-authors) “COVID-19: The Great Reset”. (Schwab and Malleret, 2020) According to the views expressed in this article our world (described here not only as having as defining feature the systemic connectivity making risks amplifying each other, but also including from its significant fault lines) has been dived quickly and energetically, into the most challenging times which it has ever faced, by the COVID-19 pandemic: “It is a defining moment – we will be dealing with its fallout for years, and many things will change forever. It has wrought (and will continue to do so) economic disruption of monumental proportions, creating risk and volatility on multiple fronts – political, social, geopolitical – while exacerbating deep concerns about the environment and also extending the reach (pernicious or otherwise) of technology into our lives”. Schwab and Malleret pledge for refusing “silo-doing” and “silo-thinking”, and to generate the necessary collective will so as to make a better and more resilient world which involves a change with immense scope (new social contract, improved international collaboration etc.). This made us recall some other significant related approaches over the years up till now, such as: ● The assessment entitled “A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues” by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO, December 8, 2005; revised July 27, 2006) which (as shown in the introductory letter signed by the CBO’s Director) prepared an assessment of the possible macroeconomic effects of an avian flu pandemic, concluding that: “a pandemic involving a highly virulent flu strain (such as the one that caused the pandemic in 1918) could produce a short-run impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of an average postwar recession in the United States...”; this assessment underlined, among other aspects, that: “In making decisions about how to proceed, there are competing risks. The risk of inaction is that a pandemic will occur that could have been prevented or mitigated. The risk of action is that it is costly, diverts resources from other priorities, and could be damaging by itself, as was the case in the reaction to the swine flu scare of 1976”. ● The “Pandemic Influenza. Preparedness, Response, and Recovery” Guide for critical infrastructure and key resources, by U.S. Department of Homeland Security (in September 2006), which stated that: “Understanding the pandemic planning context offers business contingency planners a practical framework in which to develop and execute their plans. The context provides the nature of the threat and support variables essential to networking the business’ plan within the greater operational environment… Business planners should integrate and network their plans given current facts and insights… The potentially catastrophic impacts
38
demand a new, tailored, business contingency plan and preparedness effort… Pandemic preparedness must involve all types and sizes of businesses. Moreover, it demands a shift in business continuity planning from one that anticipates a short-term, near-normal condition, to one that prepares for extreme long-term, catastrophic contingencies… Businesses should examine each impact and assumption in the context of its operational environment… More and more, businesses rely on the just-in-time delivery of materials, goods, and services to maintain their economic livelihood… Business planners should assume some level of social disruption and plan for direct security risks to their operations and along their supply chain”. Within this framework it was provided, for instance: a “big picture” (see the figure below) with the Critical Infrastructure (13 sectors) and Key Resources (4 sectors) identified formally by the U.S. Government as being essential (making difference between what is really essential and what may be “simply” critical or useful) to U.S. nation’s security, and economic and social stability (in consideration of the December 17, 2003 Homeland Security Presidential Directive/Hspd-7 having as Subject the Critical Infrastructure Identification, Prioritization, and Protection); a Continuity of Operations Plan-Essential (COP-E, for each COP-E scenario being identified the impacts from disruptions to essential functions, services, and goods, these impacts being assessed in terms of priorities, time and the moments of greatest strain), as a mean to address the extreme case, also taking into account that “the scale and scope of the impacts and possible outcomes from a pandemic demand a dedicated level of effort, investment, and planning beyond most existing business continuity planning”. On the other hand, it is worth mentioning that within the COP-E Recovery Phase (comprising: Action, Issues to Consider, and Supporting Actions) there are listed examples of 13 major recovery challenges, such as: Examine competition impacts on small businesses, Assess insurance and business impacts, Coordinate government and community support, Continue enhanced risk communications and information sharing, Maintain public and media relations, and Measure, monitor, and adjust (to name but a few). There is a clear recommendation, for instance, to consider the so-called STARCC principle, which means having a Simple, Timely, Accurate, Relevant, Credible, and Consistent message to employees and the media.
39
Figure no. 4: 17 U.S. National CI/KRs Source: “Pandemic Influenza. Preparedness, Response, and Recovery”, Guide for critical infrastructure and key resources, by U.S. Department of Homeland Security, September 19, 2006, p. 7 (work cited)
● The PGDA Working Paper No. 9 “Epidemics and Economics” by David E. Bloom and David Canning, Harvard School of Public Health (in 2006), who argued that: “The links between epidemics and economics are broadly similar to those between health and wealth in general. Prosperous societies not only have better health; they are also at least somewhat protected against epidemics. Like other health problems, meanwhile, epidemics can hamper economic development and trigger vicious spirals whereby worsening health reduces wealth and diminishes the protection against further health threat… Epidemics can have economic impacts far beyond the borders of their source countries – and these potential economic impacts are often amplified by those aspects of the modern world that facilitate disease spread, affect tourism and trade, disseminate awareness and fear, and exacerbate counter-productive forms of protective behavior and isolationism”. ● The “Future Global Shocks: Pandemics” 2011 report prepared by Harvey Rubin as a contribution to the OECD project “Future Global Shocks”, considering risks (within the framework for risk analysis suggested by the Wharton School Risk Management and Decision Processes Center - Kunreuther and Useem, 2009), threats and vulnerabilities as either symmetric or asymmetric, and underlining among other aspects that: “In considering the traditional national security threat, the survival of the sovereignty, territory and physical condition of the nation is at stake; to the environmental community, the sustainability of an ecosystem is at risk; to the economic sector, survival includes protecting the means of production. To the medical community in general and especially to the public health and infectious diseases sectors, survival
40
under a pandemic global shock clearly refers to taking every action to minimize morbidity and mortality as well as to minimize the effect of the pandemic on the economic, social and political stability of communities, nations and transnational organizations” . Within this framework there were underlined, among other aspects, some interdependencies and critical links (Biological, Corporate/financial, Governmental/policy/infrastructure, Research/information, Illegal activities, Social unrest) which can deteriorate (beyond the progress made on a number of fronts) the overall situation in controlling infectious diseases. (Rubin, 2011) ● The “Flu Outbreaks Reminder of Pandemic Threat” by the World Bank (in March 2013), which highlighted the need of connecting systems, professions, and disciplines while facing disruptions, citing within this framework the economic adviser for the World Bank health team, who attracted the attention on the fact that in a worst-case scenario business and consumer confidence would go down very quickly and suddenly, worker absenteeism rising sharply, and public services moving with difficulty. ● The article “Epidemics and Economics” by David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette, and JP Sevilla (in June 2018): “The health risks of outbreaks and epidemics – and the fear and panic that accompany them – map to various economic risks… The consequences of outbreaks and epidemics are not distributed equally throughout the economy… There is a significant market failure when it comes to vaccines against individual low-probability pathogens that collectively are likely to cause epidemics… If outbreaks do occur and impose a substantial health burden, there are tools to limit the risk of economic catastrophe... Concerted action now at the local, national, and multinational levels can go a long way toward protecting our collective well-being in the future”. (Bloom, Cadarette and Sevilla, 2018) ● The article “Toward a More Resilient Europe” by Poul M. Thomsen (in July 2020): “We cannot just return to the way things were before… Finally, another key priority in the coming period will be to ensure an uninterrupted supply of bank credit to the economy. History has taught us that, when efficient savings allocation breaks down, crises tend to last longer”. (Thomsen, 2020) ● The study “Why Sustainable Food Systems are Needed in a post-COVID World” by Nicoletta Batini, James Lomax, and Divya Mehra (in July 2020), who highlighted, among other aspects, the four broad shifts in the food system (being at the cross-roads of human, animal, economic and environmental health) suggested by United Nations agencies in order to adequately transform the global food system: resilient food supply chains, healthy diets, regenerative farming, conservation. (Batini, Lomax and Mehra, 2020) ● The article “The Next Phase of the Crisis: Further Action Needed for a Resilient Recovery” by Kristalina Georgieva (in July 2020), who pledged for further action in two key spheres: domestic policies (sustaining targeted lifelines by protecting people and workers, supporting firms, and preserving financial stability) and collective efforts (capturing
41
opportunities for a better future by: guaranteeing adequate health supplies; avoiding further ruptures in the global trade system; ensuring that developing countries can both finance critical spending needs, and meet debt sustainability challenges; strengthening the global financial safety net), so as to ensure a more inclusive and resilient recovery. She insisted on investing in people, supporting low-carbon and climate-resilient growth, and taking advantage of the digital transformation. (Georgieva, 2020) Managing the economy wisely, acknowledging the incomplete knowledge of our own knowledge’s limits, and seizing opportunities, valorizing innovation Recent opinions expressed (at the level of the reputed American Institute for Economic Research) the conviction (in the tradition of Friedrich A. Hayek approach and not in that of Keynes) that in the post-pandemic economy would be better served by managing the economy wisely on the basis of the knowledge (of individual preferences) made necessary by particular circumstances or regulations, conveying that knowledge considering the market prices, and improving the ability to engage in a close struggle with the next crisis. (Cachanosky, 2020) What presupposes including looking carefully at what the political scientist Roger Pielke, Jr. called the elite experts’ (myopic) tendency to have incomplete knowledge of their own knowledge’s limits, and inviting them to consider the point of views expressed by more pragmatic detail-oriented people, what will be useful for them in revising their envisaged plans (by better taking into account the local and tacit knowledge specific to those individual preferences directly connected to concrete conditions). (Hanley, 2020) On the other hand, it is worth recalling the largely confined view with regard to the fact that: the justification starts with all one’s present beliefs and experiences; the factive attitudes (know, regret, resent) are seen as attitudes toward facts (rather than propositions), so understood these factive attitudes being more basic than propositional attitudes. (Harman, 2003) We see here a very important link (as the recognized driving force of capitalism is creative destruction, and the current need of being entrepreneurial, thinking strategically is obvious) between what we underlined above – at the beginning of our article, with regard to the innovation as being really a choice on the way to unlocking post crisis growth, according to McKinsey’s representatives’ approach – and Schumpeter’s approach of innovation as driving both economic development and business cycles (more recently Schumpeter’s arguments being formalized and extended by Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, while economic historians such as Joel Mokyr and Deirdre McCloskey highlighting both innovation’s importance, and the culture embracing innovation, as very recently underlined by the below mentioned Senior Fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, who commented the valuable book “The Essential Joseph Schumpeter” written by Russell S. Sobel, and Jason Clemens). “The Essential Joseph Schumpeter” by Russell S. Sobel (Professor of Economics & Entrepreneurship in the Baker School of Business at The Citadel in his hometown of Charleston, South Carolina) and Jason Clemens (the Executive Vice President of the Fraser Institute and the President of the Fraser Institute Foundation) Sobel and Clemens took us with their book – as shown by Art
42
Carden (also an Associate Professor of Economics at Samford University in Birmingham, Alabama and a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute) – through “brief and easy analyses of Schumpeter’s theory of economic development (driven by innovation) and his theory of business cycles (where major innovations draw capital into the newly innovative sector with the cycle happening as the economy adjusts to the new technological and commercial possibilities”. (Carden, 2020) Sobel and Clemens pointed from the very beginning in their above mentioned book about Schumpeter that: “His timeless phrase describing the entrepreneurial process as one of “creative destruction” is likely second only to Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” in its daily use in popular tweets, blog posts, speeches, and articles”. (Sobel and Clemens, 2020) Maybe now and here it’s time to review some things on a personal note, taking into account that: ▪ Joseph Schumpeter was at the beginning of this academic career a Professor of economics and government at the University of Czernowitz (“Universitatea din Cernăuți”, in Romanian; it is well-known that after the dissolution of Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918, Bukovina became part of the Kingdom of Romania and this university was renamed “Universitatea Regele Carol I din Cernăuţi”; Romanian Bucovina was an integral part of Romanian Moldavia in the 14th century) between 1909-1911 (he wrote here the first version of “The Theory of Economic Development”), moving then, in 1911, to the University of Graz, where he remained until the World War I; ▪ One of the Schumpeter’s reputed students was Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (born Nicolae
Georgescu, a Romanian mathematician, statistician and economist who is well-known for: his 1971 magnum opus “The Entropy Law and the Economic Process” (where he argued that all natural resources are irreversibly degraded when put to use in economic activity); his decisive contribution in establishing ecological economics as an independent academic sub-discipline in economics, strongly influencing later developments. ▪ This link between Joseph Schumpeter (having as main favored themes innovation, entrepreneurship, and business) and his reputed students Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen was also suggested by the respected and admired hard, innovative, and strategic work of the Vice President of the Romanian Distribution Committee, Valeriu Ioan-Franc, Correspondent Member of the Romanian Academy, Deputy General Director of the National Research Economic Institute (INCE), General Director at the Economic Informational and Documentation Centre of INCE, who has been awarded with significant prizes and scientific awards for his papers and his activity as a researcher and publicist, one of the most important being: - the Diploma of Excellence and silver medal of the Romanian Academy and BNR (Romanian National Bank) for coordinating the collection “Nobel Laureates in Economics” (2001);
43
- the Diploma of Excellence of the General Association of Economists from Romania (AGER) for the promotion of the golden works of the Romanian economic research – Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen Collection – The Complete Works (2010) etc.
Coming back to the comments of Art Carden with regard to the Harvard Professor Schumpeter as the “Prophet of Innovation” (as coined by Thomas McCraw, wo put it in his 2007 biography of Schumpeter entitled “Prophet of Innovation”, pp. 151-152), it is worth adding that competition for the prophet of constant change means the introduction of new products and new ways of doing things. On the other hand, as Thomas C. Leonard, from the Department of Economics of the Princeton University, wrote in 2009 (analyzing the valuable Thomas K. McCraw’s book), if the hero for Adam Smith was the prudent man, while for John Maynard Keynes was the economist qua expert, for Schumpeter the hero was the entrepreneur as the “the agent of innovation”, and – in the words of Schumpeter – “the pivot on which everything turns”, innovation being the function of entrepreneur (who is driven by competition to improve technology, finance and organization), and entrepreneurial innovation driving forward capitalist economies towards a higher place (although along a very desolating track), while the disruptions of entrepreneurial innovation occurring – in the words of Schumpeter – at “irregularly regular” intervals. (Leonard, 2009) And as an example of entrepreneurial innovation in these hard times allow us to introduce a recent CB Insights report (created with data from CB Insights’ emerging technology insights platform) entitled “Covid-19 Has Scrambled Fintech’s Winners & Losers” that revealed how certain parts of the fintech ecosystem actually stand to benefit long-term from the Covid-19
44
pandemic (despite the fact that both deals, and dollars to global fintech companies are down). They looked at the short-term (showing, for example, that some payments companies will face existential challenges) and long-term (showing, for instance, that e-commerce payments companies benefit from accelerated shifts in tech and consumer behavior) effects of Covid-19 on five parts of the fintech ecosystem: Payments (as the above mentioned examples), Insurance, Banking & Lending, Wealth & Capital Markets, Real Estate (as shown in the table below). To remain at the payments’ case (and giving another example from this CB Insights report), let’s note the Covid-19 both caused payments volume to accelerate in some key areas (while wreaking havoc on certain industries), and contributed to an explosion in e-commerce (with the loss of physical retail), generating a displacement for both consumers and merchants (these last ones begining to turn to online B2B marketplaces for their procurement and supplies) because of the transaction volume driven to the payments companies behind online retailers (taking this way market share away from those serving physical retailers). Table no. 1: Short-term and long-term effects of COVID-19 on fintech
Source: CB Insights’ Report, “Covid-19 Has Scrambled Fintech’s Winners & Losers”. Here’s The Short& Long-Term Outlook, June 3, 2020 (work cited)
Conclusions Some time ago, while making reference to the 100th anniversary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the World Economic Forum underlined (within the “Global Health Security: Epidemics Readiness Accelerator” project, as part of the WEF’s “Shaping the Future of Health and Healthcare”, “Shaping the Future of Mobility”, and “Shaping the Future of Technology Governance: IoT, Robotics and Smart Cities” Platforms) that: “Globalization has made the world more vulnerable to societal and economic impacts from infectious-disease outbreaks…
45
Outbreaks and epidemics are causing more economic damage when they occur. Recent work on pandemics suggests that the potential economic losses from outbreaks of infectious disease are massive and similar in magnitude to the annual impact of climate change… Among businesses, the risk of infectious disease is rarely emphasized in their considerations of risk…” Within this framework WEF (and partners) stated the aim “to enable business leaders to better understand the anticipated costs associated with infectious disease outbreaks and to pursue pathways for public-private cooperation”, considering that “this is designed to mitigate costs and strengthen health security more broadly”, and highlighting the work streams addressing challenges to public-private cooperation relied on for effective readiness (Travel and Tourism, Supply Chain and Logistics, Legal and Regulatory, Communications, Data Innovations). There is clear evidence about the considerable differences for each country, sector, and company while going on the road to the next normal, facing high uncertainty and trying to better understand the economic implications, and to learn from the identified patterns from previous recessions and recoveries, as recommended by McKinsey’s representatives while analyzing European businesses. (Allas et al., 2020) They highlighted mainly the role of consumers (the sectors benefitting most from a rapid recovering of the consumer expenditure being the hospitality, retail, and food and drink sectors) and exports (until most of the world will be on a path to both containing the virus and rebuilding their economies – matters being complicated because of the timing of the different COVID-19 epidemic waves across world’s regions – the overall export demand is unlikely to get on, being necessary to consider a range of adequate scenarios, thinking about each business future strategic posture with imagination and open mind, observing closely the changes (the general shifting to remote channels) in customer behavior and perceptions outlasting the crisis, the different way in which social distancing is affecting sectors, and the ways to think about planning for the next normal (Bounce back; Lean in; Restructure; Swerve, this last one being considered the most challenging, concerning sectors facing both a slow recovery, and fundamental changes in delivery modes and customer behavior). In the opinion of McKinsey’s representatives the speed of recovery and the magnitude of structural change constitute the factors which will shape European recovery, every business having, of course, its own mode of behavior or way of thought different to what is normal or expected. But let us end by focusing on PEOPLE caring about what happens in the future, about their fears (while trying to understand) and hopes (trying to overcome their fears by acting), doing something regarding COVID-19 (acknowledging the need of trade-offs involved by the new coronavirus) and the economy, the business, their community, and their life in general. The great Romanian sculptor Constantin Brancusi, considered the patriarch of modern sculpture, argued that: “Mere theories are always worthless samples, only action matters… Out of the plenitude of my sunny country, I made a life-long provision of joy and so I could withstand… Look, my Endless Column is living in a beautiful garden in Romania. From the base up to the top, it has the same shape and needs no neither pedestal, nor socle to support it, and the wind
46
won’t uproot it, because it will resist by its own forces… Go to hug the Column of Infinity with your open arms. Then, raising your eyes, look at it and thus you’ll meet the very Self of the sky”. References Allas, T., Sjatil, P. E., Stern, S. and Windhagen, E. (2020). How European businesses can position themselves for recovery, McKinsey & Company, April 2020. Retrieved from How-European-businesses-can-position-themselvesfor-recovery-final Bar Am, J., Furstenthal, L., Jorge, F. and Roth, E. (2020). Innovation in a crisis: Why it is more critical than ever, McKinsey & Company, Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice, June 2020. Retrieved from Innovation-in-a-crisisWhy-it-is-more-critical-than-ever-vF Batini, N., Lomax, J. and Mehra, D. (2020). Why Sustainable Food Systems are Needed in a post-COVID World, The International Monetary Fund, July 14, 2020. Retrieved from https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/14/why-sustainablefood-systems-are-needed-in-a-post-covid-world Bloom, D. E., and Canning, D. (2006). Harvard Initiative for Global Health, Program on the Global Demography of Aging, Working Paper Series, PGDA Working Paper No. 9, p. 25-26. Retrieved https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wpcontent/uploads/sites/1288/2013/10/BLOOM_CANNINGWP9.2006.pdf Bloom, D. E., Cadarette, D. and Sevilla, JP (2018). Epidemics and Economics, The International Monetary Fund, Finance & Development, June 2018, VOL. 55, NO. 2. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/economic-risks-and-impacts-of-epidemics/bloom.htm Cachanosky, N. (2020). A Keynesian Path Would Be the Wrong Path for the U.S. Economy, American Institute for Economic Research, July 15, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.aier.org/article/a-keynesian-path-would-be-thewrong-path-for-the-u-s-economy/ Carden, A. (2020). The Essential Joseph Schumpeter: An Easy and Accessible Introduction to an Important and Complex Thinker, American Institute for Economic Research, July 14, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.aier.org/article/the-essential-joseph-schumpeter-an-easy-and-accessible-introduction-to-animportant-and-complex-thinker/ Georgieva, K. (2020). The Next Phase of the Crisis: Further Action Needed for a Resilient Recovery, The International Monetary Fund, July 15, 2020. Retrieved from https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/15/the-next-phase-ofthe-crisis-further-action-needed-for-a-resilient-recovery/ Ghosh, I. (2020). What’s At Risk: An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World, Visual Capitalist, June 24, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.visualcapitalist.com/whats-at-risk-an-18-month-view-of-a-post-covid-world/ Hanley, J. E. (2020). Adding Detail to Paul Romer’s Simplistic Plan for Reopening America, American Institute for Economic Research, July 17, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.aier.org/article/adding-detail-to-paul-romerssimplistic-plan-for-reopening-america/ Harman, G. (2003). Reflections on Knowledge and its Limits, Princeton University, June 9, 2003. Retrieved from http://www.princeton.edu/~harman/Papers/Williamson.pdf Kunreuther, H. and Useem, M. (2009). Principles and Challenges for Reducing Risks from Disasters. Learning From Catastrophes: Strategies for Reaction and Response. Upper Saddle River, Wharton School Publishing Leonard, T. C. (2009). Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction, by Thomas K. McCraw, Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/~tleonard/papers/McCraw.pdf Potter, C.W. (2008) A history of influenza, Society for Applied Microbiology - Wiley Online Library, 07 July 2008. Retrieved from https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x Rubin, H. (2011). “Future Global Shocks: Pandemics”, OECD/IFP Project on “Future Global Shocks”, MultiDisciplinary Issues, International Futures Programme, IFP/WKP/FGS(2011)2, pp. 4, 18-19, 21. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/46889985.pdf Sobel, R. S. and Clemens, J. (2020). The Essential Joseph Schumpeter, the Fraser Institute, 2020, Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication Data, p. 3. Retrieved from https://www.essentialscholars.org/sites/default/files/essential-joseph-schumpeter.pdf Thomsen, P. M. (2020). Toward a More Resilient Europe, The International Monetary Fund, July 12, 2020. Retrieved from https://blogs.imf.org/2020/07/12/toward-a-more-resilient-europe/
47
Watkis, N. (2020). The Post Virus Recession, CustomerThink, July 7, 2020. Retrieved from https://customerthink.com/the-post-virus-recession/ Schwab, K., Malleret, T. (2020). COVID-19's legacy: This is how to get the Great Reset right, The World Economic Forum, 14 Jul 2020. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/covid19-this-is-how-to-get-thegreat-reset-right/ *** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/global-surveys-ofconsumer-sentiment-during-the-coronavirus-crisis? *** https://mkor.ro/studii/studiu-impact-covid19-afaceri/ *** Similarities and Differences between Flu and COVID-19, https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vscovid19.htm *** A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, December 8, 2005; revised July 27, 2006, pp. 16-17. Retrieved from https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/109th-congress-2005-2006/reports/12-08-birdflu.pdf *** “Pandemic Influenza. Preparedness, Response, and Recovery”, Guide for critical infrastructure and key resources, by U.S. Department of Homeland Security, September 19, 2006, pp. 6-7, 12, 20-21, 23, 25, 28, 31, 35, 60-63, 78.Retrieved from https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/cikrpandemicinfluenzaguide.pdf *** December 17, 2003 Homeland Security Presidential Directive/Hspd-7, Subject: Critical Infrastructure Identification, Prioritization, and Protection. Retrieved from https://georgewbushwhitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/12/20031217-5.html *** Flu Outbreaks Reminder of Pandemic Threat, World Bank, March 5, 2013. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/03/05/flu-outbreaks-reminder-of-pandemic-threat *** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter *** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Georgescu-Roegen *** Valeriu IOAN-FRANC, Honorary Academician of AEDEM, Spain, 19 Dec 2016. Retrieved from https://www.crdaida.ro/2016/12/valeriu-ioan-franc-honorary-academician-of-aedem-spain/ administrator *** CB Insights’ Report, “Covid-19 Has Scrambled Fintech’s Winners & Losers”. Here’s The Short- & Long-Term Outlook, June 3, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.cbinsights.com/research/fintech-covid-outlook/? *** Global Health Security: Epidemics Readiness Accelerator, https://www.weforum.org/projects/managing-therisk-and-impact-of-future-epidemics
48
49
The Role of Academia, Innovation/Penetration, New Thinking Needed, 20 years BLMM, International Standards, COVID-19 Challenge, and Remembering SANABUNA Bernd HALLIER
Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier, President of the European Retail Academy (ERA: http://www.european-retail-academy.org/), an Honorary Member of the Romanian Distribution Committee, and distinguished Member of both the Editorial Board of “Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine”, and the Editorial Board of RAU “Holistic Marketing Management” attracted our attention on great events happening in the second quarter of 2020, and allowed us to present them. It is also worth remembering that: immediately after visiting Romania for the first time on the occasion of the 24th International Congress of the International Association for the Distributive Trade (AIDA Brussels), Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier sent us, in May 1998, a memorable letter we have referred initially in the Journal of the Romanian Marketing Association (AROMAR), no. 5/1998, and also later, in 2010, in the first issue of the Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine; the Romanian-American University (RAU) has awarded Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier a “Diploma of Special Academic Merit”; the “Carol Davila” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, has awarded Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier a “Diploma of Excellence”.
The Role of Academia University research is optimizing the intellectual dispute between a “thesis” and an “antithesis”. To define the state of art of the thesis literature covering the chosen topic has to be checked and within a deductive process to be analyzed which scientific mosaic stones could be enlarged or reordered for a new knowledge picture or if a whole thesis could be replaced by a new view: culminating sometimes even by a Nobel Award.
50
Applied Sciences on the other hand is an inductive process: adding one case to the next case to get a representative sample big enough for a theoretical approach. But the real main point according to Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier is that Applied Sciences always is – step by step for its analysis and application in business – a driver of innovation due to improved productivity/ efficiency in the real world; last but not least in its accumulation it determines the annual GNP of each country. “In a crisis it is not only fiscal policy or monetary action BUT a new stream of thought from applied sciences which is stimulating economies” he stated explaining the difference of national success in the last 75 years. “Low interest rates or a higher monetary volume are not enough at the entrepreneurial level for growth of the real economy which in the end is the indicator for sustainable development,” he added, and “Stock Exchanges only present expectations; they are indicators of speculation”. LINK about VSE-honors for Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier’s Business Cycle Observations.
51
Innovation/Penetration In 1994/96 Prof.Dr.Hallier initiated as an anti-crisis response to the British Cow Disease (BSE) in the AgriBusiness the German tracing/ tracking system Orgainvent for cows and beef which later was the basis for EU-regulations ( see pic “From Crisis to Competence” and Link “Tils Cutting House”). 25 years later the historic review and proposals for application within Developing Economies in the Reader about Animal Sourced Food published by Prof. Dr. I. M. Khan from the University of Faisalabad/Pakistan shows how long global penetration of innovation in the food chain needs!
See also the YouTube-Link TILS-Cuttinghouse.
52
In 2020 Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier demands as a response to COVID-19 to add to the standards of global food distribution an enlargement of the focus HACCP and also a Chapter about Social Welfare for Labour: â&#x20AC;&#x153;We are all in a Responsibility Chain in global supply: we cannot claim targets for animal welfare while neglecting the human beingsâ&#x20AC;? he stated demanding an equilibrium between Economics, Ecology and Ethics.
53
New Thinking Needed Comparing political developments between 2010 and 2020 Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier sees an urgent need for New Thinking: “We unfortunately destroyed by national egoism international organizational frames of trust and security in the last decade” he states at the start of the German Presidency of the EU. “Corona and the Climate Change should teach us the need for joint global action for human survival".
For Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier unilateral trade sanctions are crime against humanity; tools like the “veto” at the UN are outdated for him because they are based on global hegemony after World War II or even still part of the colonial centuries. He demands equal votes like at the OSZE also for the UN to become a globe of equals. For Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier G-Global could be helpful as a bridge for new thinking between East and West.
54
20 years BLMM For 20 years the University of Osijek/Croatia is organizing an annual Conference about Logistics. “The fact of 20 years continuity is already the proof of substance” Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier said in a statement.
“In a global world of high speed competition MODERN LOGISTICS plays an important role - also lately additionally due to innovations about the last mile!” The lectures are double checked and edited: for more information please contact logistics@blmmconference.com.
International Standards In October 2017 the Thematic University Network (Food) was started at the ANUGA Exhibition in Cologne as a manifest for blended learning about standards along the distribution from farm to fork. The former ERA-trainee Dr. Alina Pukhovskaya designed the www.european-retail-academy.org/TUN) as a multi-lingual option for global training.
55
Now Violena Nencheva from Bulgaria starts her ERA-training by pushing the Spanish TUN-Site; her next step in applied sciences would be Middle- or South America. Language is important not only for the flow of product distribution but also for the knowledge distribution in a globalizing world as Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier stated when welcoming Violena Nencheva.
56
COVID-19 Challenge According to Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier the CREATIVITY of retail can be seen in a lot of short-term initiatives to protect consumers in the food business against COVID-19. Some of the best practices will become teaching material for blended learning at this Site in one of the next News-editions.
Part of the overall effort to contain the spread of the virus had been on the level with trading partners to guarantee supplies despite panic buying; instore-operations had been partly re-arranged; own personnel had to be educated for the new situation and consumers to be instructed to change shopping-behavior; e-commerce had been speeded up to reduce risks for people better to stay at home. Prof. Dr. Bernd Hallier gives a lot of credit-points to the â&#x20AC;&#x153;Heroes of Supplyâ&#x20AC;?.
57
58
Retailers’ current reflecting and learning from challenges Theodor PURCĂREA
Abstract
The new coronavirus impact on businesses (and not only) forced the reviewing of the supply chains’ processes, considering autonomous warehouse solutions, inventory management techniques, autonomous inventory delivery, and robots’ use in retail. We are witnessing a quick evolution of BOPIS and BORIS, of the automated merchandising, of the “meals on wheels”, and even going beyond the standard vending machine offering, while considering practical considerations of an unstaffed operation, including the security concerns. Important scenarios to support future planning were launched, and there is no doubt about the need for a coherent consumer-centric business system within the enormous shift of the consumer behavior, learning from the best practices such as those promoted in time by ECR Community and The Consumer Goods Forum, adapted to the current context. It is now the time to also recognize essential workers, and to forge a retailers’ healthy work culture so as to adequately servicing customers. And while advancing from one crisis to another but unprecedented, being now on the road of recovery, reflecting and learning from challenges, it is important to look into the future with confidence, solidarity and empathy. Keywords: COVID-19; Supply Chains; BOPIS; BORIS; ECR; CGF JEL Classification: L81, L86, M31, Q55
59
Reviewing the supply chains’ processes, autonomous warehouse solutions, inventory management techniques, autonomous inventory delivery, and robots’ use in retail In order to determine areas where technology can help improve – underlined Vend’s Retail Expert and Content Strategist – retailers are reviewing their supply chains’ processes, their staff being well informed and trained accordingly (valorizing change management, talent, technology, internal collaboration, and external collaboration), reviewing consistently their inventory levels, taking advantage of technology (including as a way to correct delays), controlling the flow of goods and services, and maximizing the value to their customers. (Nicasio, 2019) Very recently, the same Retail Expert and Content Strategist argued that retail space planning, for instance, has meet new challenges within their adaptation to the new shoppers’ behaviors determined by COVID-19 (which altered the way of browsing and buying), mapping out a layout and design a retail experience accordingly, by considering: both the necessary store’s foot traffic data and number of employees during each shift; the top products’ categories; the customers’ buying journey; social distancing, hygiene areas, and health/safety equipment; maximizing space with the help of vertical shelves; improving the checkout process accordingly (clear signage, spacing out cashiers, Plexiglas, self-checkout, efficient checkout experience); the improvement of the fulfillment of online orders (BOPIS, order online, pick up in-store; curbside pickup, buying online and driving then to retailers’ location to pick it up without leaving the car); making the outside of their stores look cleaner, neater, or more attractive etc. (Nicasio, 2020) And of course, without forgetting to have an adequate visual merchandising strategy including innovative ways to keep retailers’ customers interested in coming always back to browse their physical store. (Nicasio, 2020) In May this year, the Senior Vice President of Products at Appriss Retail (a leader in data and analytics solutions for retail organizations, which is known including for transferring its expertise from analyzing register transactions to those affecting store stock) showed that the retail landscape is further transformed by the so-called BOPIS (buy online, pickup in store) and BORIS (buy online, return in store), both of them making effective inventory management becoming a growing priority. And this considering: the goal of ensuring that products are in the right place, at the right time, being sold at the best price possible; that having the right inventory balance within the store is considered to be the primary challenge faced by retailers. (Seivold, 2020) Recently, a Supply Chain Analyst from IGD (The Institute of Grocery Distribution, UK) showed that especially since ecommerce was booming due to the COVID-19 pandemic there is a rising demand for distribution space, operators being very interested in various types of autonomous warehouse solutions (starting with the Warehouse Management System) necessary to drive further efficiencies: autonomous (driverless) forklifts; autonomous inventory drones; autonomous mobile robots (AMRs: Goods-to-Person Robots, Autonomous Picking Carts, Autonomous Inventory Robots, Conveyance Robots). (Attar, 2020) He underlined the significant
60
improvements in sensors, AI and mobility which both enabled the easy deployment of these machines, and the now necessary reduced human-to-human contact ensured by them. As argued by an eCommerce Marketing Specialist at SkuVault, Inventory management (its processes being imperative to succeed for: ecommerce, multi-channel, brick-and-mortar, Omni-channel), as a significant step in the supply chain where inventory and stock quantities are tracked in and out of retailers’ warehouse, proper warehouse management being considered key), involves implementing proper inventory management techniques, such as: economic order quantity (EOQ, a formula involving a set of variables like total costs of production, demand rate etc. to minimize buying by identifying the greatest number of product units to order); minimum order quantity (MOQ, as the smallest amount of set stock a supplier is willing to sell); ABC analysis (A category serving as retailers’ most valuable products contributing the most to overall profit; B category being the products falling in between the most and least valuable; C category being for the small transactions vital for overall profit without mattering much individually to the company altogether); Just-in-time inventory management (JI, as a technique arranging raw material orders from suppliers in direct connection with production schedules, being a great way to reduce inventory costs); safety stock inventory (used in order to prevent stock outs caused typically by incorrect forecasting or unforeseen changes in retailers’ customer demand, this extra inventory being ordered beyond expected demand); FIFO (First in, First out, a method which is assuming that the older inventory is sold first) and LIFO (Last-in, First-out, as an adequate method to keep inventory fresh, assuming that the newer inventory is typically sold first, preventing this way that the inventory is going bad); reorder point formula (which is based on a business’s own purchase and sales cycles varying on a per-product basis, this reorder point being usually higher than a safety stock number to factor in the amount of time passing from the start of the process until its conclusion); batch tracking (as a quality control of the quantity or consignment of goods produced at one time, tracking the expiration of inventory or defective items back to their original batch); consignment inventory (the vendor or wholesaler is agreeing to give the retailers like favorite consignment store their goods without paying for the inventory upfront, but paying for them only when they sell); perpetual inventory management (when the store doesn’t actually keep the products it sells in stock, but makes a sale from an item from a third party, without seeing or touching this item itself, and shipping it to the consumer); Lean Manufacturing (in order to improve efficiency by eliminating both waste and any non-valueadding activities from daily business); Six Sigma (in order to increase profit, and decrease the growth of excess inventory); Lean Six Sigma (by focusing more on increasing word standardization and the flow of business); demand forecasting (as an estimate of the goods and services expected to be purchased by customers in the future, on the basis on historical sales ); cross-docking (a JIT shipping process being created by an incoming truck unloading materials directly into outbound trucks, being little or no storage in between deliveries); bulk shipments (by palletizing inventory to ship more at once) etc. (Walts, 2020) And as we are living in an Omni channel world, retailers need to consider all the channels they sell on (brick and mortar stores, online stores, social media channels and so on), by: (Walts, 2020)
61
▪ Implementing an adequate Omni channel strategy, paying attention to the common barriers, such as: segmented supply chain processes (which it imposes having a unified software solution); lack of inventory visibility (which it imposes taking the right measures to avoid the risk of incorrect data); order accuracy (which it imposes having a proper automated inventory software in place); order tracking (which is coming with inventory visibility, imposing having a streamlined process from the moment of the purchase order; creation until its shipping out, and potentially until its retour); high inventory storage costs (which it imposes the accommodation for bigger storage space and cost before the creation of the Omni channel strategy); technology (an inventory or warehouse management system being considered the real backbone of an Omni channel approach); ▪ Optimizing the Omni channel inventory management strategy (by integrating the supply chain, maintaining true visibility, improving the return policies, encouraging in-store returns, stocking the inventory across locations, and creating a customer satisfaction contingency plan). It was interesting to note in February this year that the Founder of Vend, Vaughan Fergusson, an entrepreneur and technologist, pledge for retailers’ need of finding the harmonious balance between shoppers and robots, taking into account the inevitability of the automation in large format store retail which is leading to a better shopping experience. He gave different examples of robots’ use in retail (starting with the celebration of one human year of Marty’s robot life patrolling Giant and Stop & Shop grocery stores across America; then Lowe’s “LoweBot”, an iPad on wheels, with customer service role), including the successfully already deployed technology (mostly) in the storeroom and warehouses (Amazon, which pioneered in the use of robots to fully automate fulfilment; the at least four robots – the Auto-C, Auto-S, Unloader, and Pickup Tower – deployed by Walmart, another pioneering big-box retailer; the giant automated robot arm Chloe introduced by Best Buy in collaboration with PaR Systems). (Fergusson, 2020) More recently, Brain Corp provided a new guide to learn how autonomous inventory delivery (as a new type of robotic application) can both help improve operational efficiency and increase productivity while easing the burden on employees (and this considering the laborious and time-consuming process of moving inventory and goods from the stockroom out to the store shelves). They estimate, for instance, that delivery robots increase productivity with 67%. The automated merchandising, the “meals on wheels”, and going beyond the standard vending machine offering, while considering practical considerations of an unstaffed operation, including the security concerns. Scenarios to support future planning In Sommer last year IGD, UK, signaled the mobile grocery store (“Zero HungerMobile Market”) brought by one of the world’s largest food retailers, Kroger, to Louisville’s neighborhoods, Kentucky, USA, underlining the over a year co-operation between Kroger and Dare to Care Food Bank, Louisville, KY, in order to create the mobile market where customers are paying through debit and credit cards or electronic benefit transfer (EBT). (IGD, 2019)
62
Very recently, we remarked that a writer and editor for RetailWire made reference to both the above mentioned Kroger’s event, and Carts Blanche struggling to develop mobile convenience stores company by partnering with two entrepreneurs. (Stern, 2020) Carts Blanche, LLC, the designer and manufacturer of the revolutionary mobile automated trailer “VendaCarts” (handled by a single employee; this kind of trailer can be equipped with any style vending/kiosks machines plus a mix of service units), the VendaCarts products being used in a multitude of new marketplaces. (PR Newswire, 2020) The solution offered through the remote management of trailer and vending machines such as ATM’s, digital signage, TV’s and microwaves was seen as redefining the automated retail industry, while operating permanently in an not accompanied environment. And the above mentioned writer and editor for RetailWire raised the issue of safely bringing groceries to such areas in need by such remotely managed mobile-marts, the traditional RetailWire’s discussion within this framework revealing interesting points of view with regard to the automated merchandising, the so-called “meals on wheels”, and going beyond the standard vending machine offering, while considering practical considerations of an unstaffed operation, including the security concerns. Coming back to IGD’s approaches, it was also interesting to note recently what revealed the new IGD’s “Eating In Vs Dining Out” report (in collaboration with foodservice consultant Peter Backman) with regard to four useful hypothetical scenarios (considering both the potential path of the new coronavirus, and the performance of the economy) for companies’ acting in the UK’s food retail or foodservice sectors and planning for their future: ▪“The Great Reset” (seeing food and drink consumption largely shifting to home); ▪“Decade of Drift” (manageable virus, but difficult economy’s recovery and the severe financial impact on households and businesses); ▪“Technical Isolation” (seeing online as the safest way to shop, re-shaping the retail as a technical response by businesses and consumers driven by the virus path); ▪“Globalisation Reversed” (as the most severe scenario, imposing extensive rebuilding for supply chains, while deliveries and takeaway services for commercial foodservice becoming near the only option). (Knight, 2020) And as the IGD’s Senior Analyst Food-To-Go (buying food from quick service food retailers in order to eat on the go) highlighted from this new report, these four scenarios can be used according to the model shown below:
63
Figure no. 1: A model demonstrating how the four scenarios from the new IGD’s “Eating In Vs Dining Out” report can be used by the food and drink businesses to support future planning Source: Knight, N. (2020). What will UK food and drink look like post-COVID? Supply Chain Analysis IGD, 24 June 2020 (work cited)
The need for a coherent consumer-centric business system within the enormous shift of the consumer behaviour Allow us to remember that 24 years ago the Romanian Distribution Committee organized the first Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) National Symposium (in partnership with Valahia University Târgoviste, and Rescopa S.A., as reflected including next year by the “Economical True”/ “Adevarul Economic” no. 7(257)/14-20 feb.1997, the year of the second symposium of that kind). And making a bridge over time it is our duty to recall the last two significant meeting on this matter: “Wonderful Academic & Business Partnership 2017 SCM 4 ECR Conference” (https://www.crd-aida.ro/2017/11/wonderful-academic-business-partnership-2017-scm-4-ecrconference/); “Continuous improvement journey of the Academic & Business Partnership 2018 SCM 4 ECR Conference” (http://holisticmarketingmanagement.ro/continuous-improvementjourney-of-the-academic-business-partnership-2018-scm-4-ecr-conference/). ECR Community (previously ECR Europe), the global association for all ECR National organisations in the Retail & Consumer Product Group sector, offered us in the last years significant information with regard to: ▪ “ECR – Optimal shelf availability. Increasing shopper satisfaction at the moment of truth”, a project involving joint efforts of a large group of European manufacturers and retailers, and overseen throughout by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants (who provided the project methodology and authored the report based on a survey assessing the following critical factors: availability along the supply chain, category characteristics, promotions, store formats, day of the week, inventory levels and distribution method); the 2016 report’s results were considered as first steps on the long road to success for manufacturers and retailers needing a more closely collaboration in order to further increase consumer satisfaction and thus sales, focusing on this common goal of ensuring higher on-shelf availability at the moment of truth, reemphasizing the importance of a coherent consumer-centric business system (consisting of seven levers as shown
64
in the first figure below), and keeping in mind the following three maxims: sustainability, magnitude, and change (as shown in the second figure below).
Figure no. 2: Coherent consumer-centric business system Source: ECR â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Optimal shelf availability. Increasing shopper satisfaction at the moment of truth, ECR Europe & Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, October 2016, p. 8 (work cited)
Figure no. 3: Keeping in mind the following three maxims: sustainability, magnitude Source: ECR â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Optimal shelf availability. Increasing shopper satisfaction at the moment of truth, ECR Europe & Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, October 2016, pp. 62-63 (work cited)
The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF), the truly global association in the consumer goods industry, which is embracing both retailers and manufacturers, is a CEO-led organisation helping the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s retailers and consumer goods manufacturers to collaborate (alongside other key stakeholders), in order to secure consumer trust and drive positive change, including greater efficiency. CGF is well-known for its excellent strategic organization (see the figure below), involving: 4 Pillars (End-to-End Value Chain, Health & Wellness, Sustainability, Product Safety), 7 Initiatives, 40+ Global Projects and Working Groups, 1,500 Industry Experts etc.
65
Figure no. 4: The Consumer Goods FORUM’s Strategic Organisation Source: CGF, https://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/who-we-are/overview/
CGF also brought to us very recently useful information, such as: ● The growing sense of urgency, the growing demand for positive action, and the growing (as a result) relevance of values (among individuals, organizations, and governments) impacting outcomes, values having the power to lead the transformation, while “the ‘value of values’ is about contributing to positive systemic change, to doing better at both micro and macro levels”; (Gralnek, 2020) ● The enormous shift of the consumer behaviour across Europe (including how long it might endure), and this according to new research from Alvarez & Marsal and Retail Economics (they measured the attitudes of over 6,000 consumers across six European countries: UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Switzerland) which revealed some key trends: the cratering of the discretionary consumer spending (changes across retail categories); the deepening and accelerating of the shift to online (the European consumer being now digital-first); consumers’ expectations concerning safety (not brand experiences), trust concerning now health and safety becoming now a true retail experience. And these key trends are putting pressure on retailers to
66
invest in logistics and data so as to better understand and serve customers and develop new products and partnerships accordingly. (Brookes, 2020) Recognizing essential workers, and forging a healthy work culture despite retailers’ employees’ heightened anxiety, so as to adequately servicing customers On April 29, 2020, The Consumer Goods Forum reminded us – through the intermediary of Veronika Pountcheva, Global Director Corporate Responsibility and Senior Vice President, METRO AG, and Brent Wilton, Director of Global Workplace Rights, The Coca-Cola Company – that: “During this global pandemic, essential workers are at the frontlines ensuring that society can continue. These individuals in our businesses, supply chains and communities are doing all they can to ensure we are fed and remain safe… In the coming months, The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF) will be launching its Human Rights Coalition, working to end forced labour, as part of the CGF’s new global strategy to accelerate collective action and help its members to drive more impactful collaborations that benefit both people and planet”. (Pountcheva and Wilton, 2020) Re-gaining the competitive advantage in today’s challenging climate also involves a management-by-walking-around to better understand retailers’ workers (their health fears and unknowns, their way of dealing with angry customers, their struggle to successfully surmount the new store processes and policies, their concern over job security etc.), underlined recently the Director of Human Resources at Axis Communication, who outlined some useful action items such as: creating a “dashboard” indicator of retailers’ workplace climate, talking freely about issues that affect retailers’ workers with a help of a focus group of employees with management, implementing a cost-effective employee assistance program, practicing empathy, considering celebrations, make retailers’ employees feel a part of a business with a strong set of values, thinking long-term, and taking appropriate decisive action. (Seivold, 2020) From one crisis to another but unprecedented, learning from challenges The new coronavirus pandemic generated a complex situation, asking for confidence, efficacy, and endurance, for practicing integrative awareness in action on the basis of a flexible perspective, adapting the operating model accordingly. (Brassey and Kruyt, 2020) There is a real need of o building the organizational capability to quickly learn and act, better understanding that resilience comes through speed. (Levy et al., 2020) Nine years ago, a valuable report of ECR Europe – entitled “Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework” – identified key changes causing the increased pressure retailers and manufacturers in creating profitable growth in their markets, the first of them being the consumer’s perception of “value” as a result of the economic crisis (together with: a new generation of consumers with different expectations on lifestyle issues such as health and sustainability; the fragmentation of media channels; the transparency of the offer due to the development of digital media and the new potential these digital media create to interact
67
differently with the consumer and the shopper than in the past). (ECR Europe, 2011) It was underlined, from the very beginning, within the framework of putting shoppers/consumers at the center of the business process of both retailers (which typically think of stores/categories first) and manufacturers (which typically think about their brands first), the opportunity of integrating these two complementary perspectives (the key milestones in the retail marketing evolution are shown in the figure below). The six key steps comprised by the Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework (considered the foundation of shopper-centric marketing), and the key questions to understand it are shown in the second figure below.
Figure no. 5: Key Milestones in the Retail Marketing Evolution Source: Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework, ECR Europe 2011, p. 13 (work cited)
Figure no. 6: The six key steps comprised by the Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework, and the key questions to understand it Source: Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework, ECR Europe 2011, p. 18 (work cited)
68
In the figure below are shown the methods to understand buying behavior (WHAT from the above figure), according to the above mentioned report:
Figure no. 7: Methods to Understand Buying Behavior (WHAT) Source: Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework, ECR Europe 2011, p. 80 (work cited)
Starting from these three pictures (allowing us to both reflect and process the experience, and gain actionable insight) from the beginning of the current decade (when the consumer’s perception of “value” as a result of the economic crisis was identified as the first key change causing the increased pressure retailers and manufacturers in creating profitable growth in their markets), and coming back to the present marked by the new coronavirus crisis, when, as revealed in April this year: ● by KPMG, we were witnessing “a rapid transition towards new lifestyles and new personal values strongly guided by the new paradigm of social distancing”, the psychological aspects acquiring greater importance than other profiling variables), and being necessary to address emerging on-line customer pain points; there is a powerful impact of COVID-19 on supply chain reshaping, including at the level of the “New Normal” distribution approach (as shown in the two figures below;
69
Figure no. 8: Supply Chain is a key lever to support the Online Sales and to grasp current opportunities Source: COVID-19 and social distancing impact on Retail Customer Experience: KPMG vision & approach for Large Retail Chains, April 2020, p. 22 (work cited)
Figure no. 9: The “New Normal” Distribution approach –Re-Layout Toolkit Source: COVID-19 and social distancing impact on Retail Customer Experience: KPMG vision & approach for Large Retail Chains, April 2020, p. 23 (work cited)
70
● by Strategy& Retail & Consumer Team, Part of the PwC network, we were also witnessing how the COVID 19 impact on retailers depends on the category focus and the sales footprint of retailers (as shown in the figure below), what make us to highlight the two key objectives – Manage the crisis/Crisis task; Leverage opportunities/Management team – for retailers identified by Strategy& Retail & Consumer Team, and possible key areas (rebalancing supply chain and category management; boosting online presence; ensuring organizational fitness; preparing for tomorrow) for action and exemplary levers (depending on retailer, not all identified levers being applicable to all retailers).
Figure no. 10: Sales impact from COVID 19 Sales footprint and category focus Source: How retailers can manage and recover from COVID 19 Strategy& Retail & Consumer Team, Part of the PwC network, April, 2020, p. 5 (work cited)
More recently, on June 4, 2020, KPMG Advisory SRL let us know that: “We are living through historic times that we neither expected nor anticipated” (Richard Perrin, Partner, Head of Advisory KPMG in Romania). (Perrin, 2020) The new KPMG report – entitled “COVID-19’s impact on the supply chain. From survival to success: Are we ready for what will come?” – presented the necessary measures to be taken by companies facing the current challenges in order to resurrect their supply chain operations. And this on the basis of the results of a recent survey which took the pulse of the supply chain activities of companies operating on the Romanian market (there were 24 of respondents: 30% of the companies from the Automotive industry, 16% from Construction, 16% from Retail, 12% from Manufacturing, 8% from ITC, 4% from Professional services, 4% from FMCG, 4% from Telecom &ICT, and 4% from Transport and logistics; more than 2/3 of these respondents confirmed having a Disaster Recovery Plan / Business Continuity Plan in place, the measures contained in it being only high level yet for a third of them). Research’s results confirmed that there is still much more to be done to resolve the threat to the successful performance of operations represented by the current challenges of
71
supply chain operations within the pandemic, the supply chain remaining one of the biggest sources of vulnerability for companies. And in order to bring back and reinforce the supply chain operations the above mentioned KPMG report recommended both short-term (safeguard people; understand key risks across operations and the supply chain), and mid and long term actions (development of workforce capabilities; digital transformation; suppliers risk management; supply chain optimization, production optimization; manage customer expectations and improve CX).
Figure no. 11: Significant Academic & Business Partnership SCM 4 ECR Conferences images Source: Romanian Distribution Committee, https://www.crd-aida.ro/2017/11/wonderful-academicbusiness-partnership-2017-scm-4-ecr-conference/
Instead of conclusions: Looking to the Future with Confidence, Solidarity and Empathy Caring for people in crisis and setting the stage for business recovery requires leadership so as to ensure a crisis-response infrastructure with well-established critical roles, and to
72
anticipate the crisis’s evolution by developing adequate scenarios, caring for the reactive tendencies. (Nielsen, D’Auria, and Zolley, 2020) There is no doubt about the real need of proactive leadership, identifying risk’s zones and engaging in hard and continuous work on reducing their impact, anticipating new needs, new problems and possible outcomes. In March this year we showed how the new marketing environment is putting consistent pressure on retailers to better understand the new risks and to take the necessary actions within the current pandemic challenge. We also highlighted new trends in retail and shopping, and the health pressures, showing retailers’ need of ensuring that consumers feel in control of their new CX, being a real need of adequately communicating, avoiding misinformation, and living together as a society.(Purcarea, 2020) On the other hand, we also saluted the continuous good work done by the Romanian Competition Authority with regard to both closely monitoring of the companies’ behavior (including clarifying retailers’ possibility of coordinating both freight to ensure the supply of commodities in all areas and home deliveries for people who cannot leave their homes within the context of the crisis situation), and its collaboration with the National Authority for Consumer Protection (ANPC), as Institutional Partner, concerning the platform “Food Price Monitor” (A. Launched on October 14, 2019, and allowing the comparison of more than 30,000 products from over 1,700 stores; B. On July 1, 2019 it was launched the platform “Price Monitor for Fuels” - information about the tariffs practiced by the large gas station chains; Business Partners: (A) Carrefour, Cora – Romania Hypermarché, Kaufland, Lidl Discount, Mega Image, PENNY Market – REWE, Profi Rom Food, Selgros Cash&Carry; (B) KMG International, Lukoil România, MOL România Petroleum Products, NIS Petrol România, OMV Petrom, Socar Petroleum). (Purcarea, 2020) And as on April 17, 2020, Romanian-American University (RAU) celebrated its 29th Anniversary, allow us to recall the words of its distinguished Founder, Professor Ion Smedescu, Honorary Member of the Romanian Distribution Committee, who underlined that “marketing strategy means drift refusal”, his approach reflecting an anticipation of today’s so-called “customer decision journey” (popularized by McKinsey in 2009) – compared to the traditional “marketing funnel” (“sales funnel”, “conversion funnel”) – seen as a new mental map to navigate the continuously changing competitive landscape. (Purcarea, 2016) It is also well-known that Professor Ion Smedescu often spoke passionately about the world of human creativity and shared subjective experience, by constantly pledging for both, on one hand, a better understanding of customers’ and prospects’ needs and expectations from RAU, and on the other hand, having the right message and delivering it in the right time and right place, while responsibly and accountably teaching students to adequately apply what they have learned. And now there is a real time to learn from the current challenges, for all of us, and act accordingly.
73
Figure no. 12: April 17, 2020, Romanian-American University’s 29th Anniversary: Looking to the Future with Confidence, Solidarity and Empathy Source: https://www.facebook.com/RomanianDistributionCommittee/
References Attar, W.E. (2020) Autonomous warehousing solutions, Supply Chain Analysis - IGD, 07 July 2020. Retrieved from https://supplychainanalysis.igd.com/topics/inventory-management/news-article/t/autonomous-warehousingsolutions/ Brassey, J. and Kruyt, M. (2020). How to demonstrate calm and optimism in a crisis, McKinsey & Company, April 30, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/how-todemonstrate-calm-and-optimism-in-a-crisis Brookes, E. (2020). Consumers and the ‘New Normal’: Which Retail Changes Could Become Permanent as a Result of COVID-19? Consumer Goods Forum, Friday 3 July 2020. Retrieved from https://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/blog/consumers-and-the-new-normal-which-retail-changes-couldbecome-permanent-as-a-result-of-covid-19/ Fergusson, F. (2020). Are Retail Robots Out to Get Us? Vend, February 4, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.vendhq.com/blog/retail-robots/ Gralnek, L. (2020). The Values of Values: Capturing the Value (Having Impact), Consumer Goods Forum, Thursday 30 April 2020. Retrieved from https://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/blog/the-values-of-valuescapturing-the-value-having-impact/ Knight, N. (2020). What will UK food and drink look like post-COVID? Supply Chain Analysis - IGD, 24 June 2020. Retrieved from https://supplychainanalysis.igd.com/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/news/news-article/t/whatwill-uk-food-and-drink-look-like-post-covid/ Levy, C., Mieszala, J-C., Mysore, M. and Samandari, H. (2020). Coronavirus: 15 emerging themes for boards and executive teams, McKinsey & Company, Risk Practice, June 2, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/coronavirus-15-emerging-themes-for-boards-andexecutive-teams Nicasio, F. (2019). 10 Supply Chain Management Best Practices for Retailers, Vend, February 5, 2019. Retrieved from https://www.vendhq.com/blog/supply-chain-management/
74
Nicasio, F. (2020). Retail Space Planning Amidst COVID-19: 7 Tips to Do It Right, Vend, June 23, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.vendhq.com/blog/retail-space-planning/ Nicasio, F. (2020). 8 Visual Merchandising Challenges and How to Overcome Them [PHOTOS], Vend, guest post by Jeff Hastings of Rose Displays, a division of Visual Creations, Inc., June 16, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.vendhq.com/blog/visual-merchandising-challenges Nielsen, N.C., D’Auria, G. and Zolley, S. (2020). Tuning in, turning outward: Cultivating compassionate leadership in a crisis, McKinsey & Company, May 1, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/businessfunctions/organization/our-insights/tuning-in-turning-outward-cultivating-compassionate-leadership-in-a-crisis# Perrin, R. (2020). COVID-19's impact on the supply chain, KPMG Romania, 4 June 2020. Retrieved from https://home.kpmg/ro/en/home/insights/2020/06/covid-19-impact-on-the-supply-chain.html Pountcheva, V. and Wilton, B. (2020). COVID-19 and the Invisible Workers in Our Value Chains, Consumer Goods Forum, Wednesday 29 April 2020. Retrieved from https://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/blog/covid-19and-the-invisible-workers-in-our-value-chains/ Purcarea, T. (2020). Retailers under Pressure of Faster Adaptation to the New Marketing Environment, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 11, Issue 1, 2020, pp. 35-45 Purcarea, T. (2020). Priorities, Resources, and Working under the Current Heavy Pressures Following the Right Protocols. Solidarity and Empathy, Romanian Distribution Committee Magazine, Volume 11, Issue 1, 2020, pp. 1015 Purcarea, T. (2016). If the Founder gave us the “text” (1991-2008), now it’s time to supply the “commentary” on it with friends and the academic family, Holistic Marketing Management, Jubilee Issue, Volume 6, Issue 1, Year 2016, pp. 05-09 Seivold, G. (2020). Identifying In-Store Inventory Issues Automatically, Loss Prevention Magazine, May 9, 2020. Retrieved from https://losspreventionmedia.com/identifying-in-store-inventory-issues-automatically/ Seivold, G. (2020). Roadmap to Restoring Employee Trust, Regaining Competitive Advantage, Loss Prevention Magazine, June 5, 2020. Retrieved from https://losspreventionmedia.com/roadmap-to-restoring-employee-trust/ Stern, M. (2020). Can remotely managed mobile-marts safely bring groceries to areas in need? RetailWire, Jul 07, 2020. Retrieved from https://retailwire.com/discussion/can-remotely-managed-mobile-marts-safely-bring-groceriesto-areas-in-need/ Walts, A. (2020). Your Essential Guide to Effective Inventory Management + 18 Techniques You Need to Know, ВіgСоmmеrсе. Retrieved from https://www.bigcommerce.com/blog/inventory-management/#inventorymanagement-techniques Walts, A. (2020). The Secret to Mastering Your Omnichannel Strategy: Inventory Management, ВіgСоmmеrсе. Retrieved from https://www.bigcommerce.com/blog/omnichannel-inventory-management/#omnichannel-steps-toget-started-with-inventory-management *** How Robots Solve Retail’s Restocking Challenge, Brain Corp, June 2020. Retrieved from https://info.braincorp.com/improve-your-on-shelf-availability-rw-em *** Kroger brings a mobile grocery store to Louisville, Kentucky, Supply Chain Analysis - IGD, 16 August 2019. Retrieved from https://supplychainanalysis.igd.com/news/news-article/t/kroger-brings-a-mobile-grocery-store-tolouisville-kentucky/ *** VendaMarts Delivers Pre-Packaged Food Products into Neighborhoods Amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond, PR Newswire, News provided by VendaMarts, Jun 30, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vendamarts-delivers-pre-packaged-food-products-into-neighborhoodsamidst-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-beyond *** ECR – Optimal shelf availability. Increasing shopper satisfaction at the moment of truth, ECR Europe & Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, October 2016. Retrieved from https://ecr-community.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/10/ecr-europe-osa-optimal-shelf-availability.pdf *** A Thriving Global Membership, https://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/who-we-are/overview/ *** Consumer & Shopper Journey Framework, ECR Europe 2011. Retrieved from https://www.ecrcommunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2011-the-consumer-and-shopper-journey-framework-.pdf *** COVID-19 and social distancing impact on Retail Customer Experience: KPMG vision & approach for Large Retail Chains. Digital Transformation for Shut-in Economy. Business Re-modelling, April 2020, pp. 5, 11, 21-22. Retrieved from KPMG_COVID-19_New-Retail-Customer-Experience *** How retailers can manage and recover from COVID 19, Strategy& Retail & Consumer Team, Part of the PwC network, April, 2020. Retrieved from how-retailers-manage-and-recover-from-covid-19 *** COVID-19’s impact on the supply chain. From survival to success: Are we ready for what will come? KPMG Advisory SRL in Romania. Retrieved from COVID-19-impact-on-the-supply-chain
75
● Tudoriţa ALBU – Un prestigios Dascăl, Prof. univ. dr. George SORESCU, Mentorul Fratelui său, Poetul Marin SORESCU Note from the Editor-in-Chief As we remembered on another occasion, in the opinion of Dr. Tudorita ALBU, education means life and civilization transmission, it is how to be prepared for tomorrow, is learning from heart to heart to know how to grow your own flower, the School being the one that provides you with the necessary cultivation, and ensure the nation’s upbringing. School remains the place where each generation will pass on its values. Dr. Tudorita ALBU advocates for promoting both the universal values (love, integrity, justice, support and respect relationships), and national ones (the passion for the recovery of these values and promoting the authentic being obvious). That is why it is our honor to share with our Readers her thoughts about a great Teacher, Dr. Tudorita ALBU being deeply grateful to have known such a unique person like Professor George SORESCU, and the Mentor of his little brother Marin SORESCU (the little brother being: a valuable Romanian poet and playwright, recipient of the International Herder Prize, granted by the University of Vienna in 1991 for his entire activity; nominated for the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1996, when he died at age 60 from a heart attack).
76
Prof. Dr. Tudoriţa ALBU – Un prestigios Dascăl, Prof. univ. dr. George SORESCU, Mentorul Fratelui său, Poetul Marin SORESCU M-am născut în Oltenia, într-o seară de iarnă, în ianuarie, la 106 ani de la anul nașterii lui Mihai Eminescu, dar în aceeași binecuvântată zi de 15 (veți vedea, pe parcurs, de ce fac referire la această dată). Pentru că încă din copilărie am simțit atracție spre literatură, după absolvirea cursurilor liceale am fost admisă la Facultatea de filologie. Provenind din zona amintită, cel mai apropiat centru universitar era Craiova, la 50 km față de localitatea unde m-am născut. Pe atunci, selecția erau una riguroasă, admiterea se făcea pe bază de concurs, locuri limitate (30), candidați foarte mulți, probe scrise și orale… După absolvirea facultății m-am stabilit în Brașov, unde am început cariera didactică. Am parcurs toate etapele de perfecționare, culminând cu absolvirea școlii doctorale Al. Piru din Craiova și – evident – susținerea tezei de doctorat. Pe parcursul carierei mele didactice am deținut, timp de 18 ani, funcția de director, iar de numele meu se leagă multe și importante realizări și succese ale instituțiilor pe care le-am condus (două școli gimnaziale). Dar nu despre mine doresc să vă vorbesc, mi-am propus să evoc figura luminoasă a unui dascăl de prestigiu, căruia îi datorez o mare parte din cariera mea, din parcursul meu profesional. În anul II de facultate, am studiat literatura română sub îndrumarea competentă a domnului profesor George Sorescu, un om de statură medie, îngrijit și pedant, cu ochi căprui, vioi și iscoditori. Era întotdeauna punctual la cursuri, iar noi participam cu mult interes la prelegerile Domniei Sale, întrucât erau fascinante. Dacă se întâmpla cumva să întârziem la cursuri, nu îndrăzneam să intrăm până la pauză, spre a nu deranja expunerea (ni se părea o impietate). Era un om blând, a cărui sensibilitate se remarca, uneori aceasta fiind însoțită de un fel de timiditate; un om cu un caracter frumos, care stătea sub semnul bunelor maniere. Parcă îl văd și acum pe culoarele instituției, trecând pe lângă grupuri de studenți, îmbrăcat în costum elegant (primăvara și toamna purta pardesiu și pălărie). Cum între studenții de la filologie majoritatea covârșitoare erau reprezentante ale sexului feminin, atunci când domnul profesor trecea pe lângă grupul de fete își scotea pălăria și, cu o reverență, ne saluta spunându ne: „Sărut mâinile, domnișoarelor!”. Desigur, acest comportament nu putea să treacă neobservat! Pe lângă prestigiul profesional (cadru didactic universitar, poet, prozator, critic literar, cercetător, traducător, latinist, eminescolog, filofrancez, ale cărui lucrări de specialitate alcătuiesc un veritabil tezaur cultural [personalitate marcantă a vieții culturale naționale, mentor al fratelui său, poetul Marin Sorescu], domnul profesor își câștigase și prestigiul de om ales, model de comportament uman. M-am aflat printre studenții care și-au ales lucrarea de licență dintre temele propuse de domnul profesor, motiv pentru care l-am cunoscut și în calitate de îndrumător. Era același om, procupat de calitate și rigoare. Mai târziu, am publicat lucrarea de licență sub titlul „Observație și atitudine critică în << Scrisorile lui Ion Ghica >>”, studiu care facilitează înțelegerea unei specii
77
literare, genul epistolar. În „Scrisori către Vasile Alecsandri“, în „Introducțiune”, Ion Ghica spunea: „Am putut vedea oameni orbiți de invidie sau ambiție… la timpi de cumpănă grea, i-am văzut pe toți unindu-se… Fericiți sunteți voi, tinerilor români, ne zicea Michelet, în țara voastră totul e de făcut, fiecare din voi se poate distinge și chiar ilustra prin fapte patriotice și mărețe”. După mulți ani, l-am regăsit pe domnul profesor George Sorescu la Școala Doctorală. Paralel cu teza la care lucram („Fantasticul în operele marilor noștri clasici“), am deschis noi direcții de cercetare literară, solicitându-i domnului profesor George Sorescu o temă interesantă. Eram cucerită de poezia lui Marin Sorescu. Drept urmare, domnul profesor mi-a recomandat volumul de „Versuri inedite”, pe care le-am cercetat cu interes și plăcere, la scurt timp apărând, sub semnătura mea, micro-studiul „Marin Sorescu << Versuri inedited >>”. Între imaginarul folcloric și ispita versului clasic“.
Volumul cuprinde poezia de început a lui Marin Sorescu și lasă să se întrevadă geniul sorescian, care prinde, încă din acești ani, contururi. Despre poeziile sale de început, Marin Sorescu declara, nostalgic: „După ani și după zile,/ Recitind aceste file,/ Scrise-n grabă și cu drag,/ Am zâmbit ca un moșneag/ Ce-și găsește-n pod, uitate,/ Jucăriile stricate...” (Marin Sorescu, „După ani”) După finalizarea acestei cercetări, am abordat, într-o colaborare excepțională cu fostul nostru profesor de limba română din liceu, domnul profesor Emil Istocescu (o altă personalitate, despre care voi vorbi cu altă ocazie), o tematică amplă, de data aceasta explorând cele șase volume de poezie soresciană „La Lilieci“. După doi ani de cercetare, a apărut volumul „Marin Sorescu << La Lilieci >>. Exegeză. Deschidere hermeneutică.“. Și de această dată domnul profesor ne-a fost alături, ne-a furnizat materiale interesante și documente de familie valoroase. Mai mult decât atât, a avut amabilitatea să ne conducă la Bulzești, în comuna natală din județul Dolj, de unde Marin Sorescu s-a inspirat. Personaje și întâmplări din epopeea universului rural „La Lilieci“ sunt reale, iar titlul este inspirat de numele cimitirului, locul îngrădit și azi de lilieci bătrâni, unde aceste personaje își dorm somnul de veci. „La Lilieci“ este titlul unei poezii
78
scrise de domnul profesor George Sorescu, dedicată părinților săi: „La Lilieci/ Dorm morții mei/ Pe vecie;/ Călcau cândva ca mine/ Pe poteci/…La Lilieci nu-i cântec/ Și nu-i gînd,/E-un somn adânc”.
Am plecat din Bulzești cu multe imagini filmate, care au constituit un excepțional material pentru studiul nostru, dar momentul cel mai frumos al vizitei noastre a fost acela în care am pășit în perimetrul gospodăriei domnului profesor Sorescu. Casa, curtea, grădina, totul era prezent în sufletul Domniei Sale, care vibra.
Vorbea cu atâta pasiune despre toate, acolo era în „centrul universului”, „Arcadia”, cum îi plăcea să îi spună. Domnul profesor a fost fericit să se întreacă la cosit cu confratele său de la Drăgășani și să ne ofere corcodușe din grădină Dumnealui. La scurt timp după ce am ajuns acasă, am trimis un set de poze și o scrisoare, al cărui text îl reproduc.
79
80
În anul 2006, chiar pe 6 decembrie, am lansat volumul „La Lilieci” la librăria Șt. O. Iosif din Brașov. A fost un moment de importanță deosebită. Pe lângă cei doi autori ai studiului, au fost prezenți domnul profesor George Sorescu, Eduard Huidan, redactor șef al Gazetei de Transilvania, un publicist valoros, care a condus o publicație de prestigiu, continuând activitatea lui George Barițiu și Dan Stanca, scriitor și publicist la „România Liberă”.
Înainte de momentul lansării, l-am însoțit pe domnul profesor într-o vizită la Muzeul Primei Școli Românești, unde gazdă desăvârșită a fost profesor preot Vasile Oltean, un erudit care însuflețește orice expunere. Muzeul este situat lângă Biserica Sfântul Nicolae în curtea căreia se află mormântul lui Nicolae Titulescu. Am vizitat și aceste obiective, dar la ieșirea din biserică, fiind o zi de mare sărbătoare, se aflau reprezentanți ai presei, care îi intervievau pe oameni, dorind să afle dacă aceștia cunosc semnificația zilei de Sf. Nicolae. Cu totul întâmplător, s-au oprit la domnul profesor George Sorescu, care a început să le povestească amănunțit despre Sfântul Nicolae, în stil academic, lucru care i-a surprins pe reporteri. Desigur,nu se așteptau la asemenea interlocutor…! Au avut ce auzi și ce învăța...!
81
Și cum nimic nu este întâmplător, în aceeași zi, dimineața, în școala pe care o conduceam, am inaugurat și am sfințit o capelă. A fost prima capelă școlară, loc în care elevii puteau învăța religia în cel mai favorabil mediu. Părintele Stelian Raicu o numea „Tindă a Raiului pentru copii“. După susținerea tezei de doctorat, în cadrul excepțional al „Târgului de carte și muzică “ din Brașov, în Aula Universității „Transilvania“, am publicat studiul „Fantasticul în operele marilor noștri clasici“. De-a lungul anilor, familia noastră, prin intermediul soțului meu care a condus o mare societate de turism din Brașov, Aro Palace, a întreținut o strânsă prietenie cu personalități din diverse domenii, printre care s-au aflat Dumitru Fărcaș și Adrian Păunescu. Cunoșteam faptul că Maestrul Fărcaș dorește să își lanseze o carte biografică și am propus „Târgul de carte“. Maestrul a acceptat, iar eu m-am ocupat de organizarea lansării. Am pregatit un moment surpriză, legând cele două publicații care aveau un termen comun „Zbor spre nemărginire“ și „Fantasticul în operele marilor noștri clasici“. Am lansat invitații, iar la prezentare am cooptat personalități de prim rang al ale culturii române și ale vieții academice.
Astfel, au fost prezenți prof. dr. George Sorescu, prof. dr. Stancu Ilin, istoric și cercetător literar la Institutul George Călinescu București, prof. dr. Theodor Purcărea, de la Universitatea Româno-Americană din București, precum și poetul Adrian Păunescu. A fost o surpriză totală pentru Maestrul Fărcaș, dar și pentru publicul participant la târg, care a umplut Aula, capacitat de eveniment. S-a alăturat întregii manifestări corul Școlii Gimnaziale 11 „Șt. O. Iosif” (pe care o conduceam), în repertoriul căruia au fost cuprinse poezii ale lui Grigore Vieru și Mihai Eminescu alături de muzica soților Doina și Ion Aldea – Teodorovici.
82
Ne-au fost alături și doi instrumentiști, foști membri ai ansamblului „Mărțișorul“, unul dintre ei fiind dr. Gheorghiță Radu, taragotist, discipol al Maestrului Fărcaș. Nu a cunoscut, și poate nu va mai cunoaște „Târgul de carte” o asemenea densitate de valori...! La câteva zile după această manifestare, poetul Adrian Păunescu scrie:
83
În seara premergătoare lansării și după lansare, profesorii participanți și Adrian Păunescu au avut o îndelungă discuție, un adevărat colocviu literar, care a confirmat de ce este arta conversaţiei considerată un ornament floral al culturii. Bucuria provocată de încarcărea spirituală a celor care iubesc cântecul interior al cărţii lecturate, al poeziei care ajută să înţelegi mai bine armonia dintre adevăr, bine şi frumos, a fost pe măsura celor angajaţi în provocatoarea călătorie a schimburilor de idei prilejuite de elevatul context. Domnul profesor George Sorescu iubea oamenii în general și copiii în special. Ne povestea cum se joacă de-a Baba Oarba cu nepoții (doi la număr) și cum le cântă din fluier. Întrun an, atunci când am organizat la Școală o manifestare denumită „Primăvara poeților”, l-am invitat și a acceptat să vină să le vorbească elevilor despre poezie, despre Marin Sorescu. A fost o zi memorabilă, când încă o dată elevii au participat la o lecție de educație pentru cunoașterea și receptarea valorilor neamului românesc. La final, domnul profesor ne-a lăsat gândurile Dumisale în Cartea de Onoare a școlii. Am să vă vorbesc și despre alte trăsături ale caracterului domnului profesor George Sorescu: generozitatea și modestia, valori care în epoca actuală sunt tot mai rar întâlnite, iar dacă sunt întâlnite, sunt ignorate. A fost și este un generos, oferindu-și sprijinul în orice moment devine necesar, fără a cere recompense de vreun fel... Iar despre sine nu vorbește aproape niciodată sau dacă o face, pare stânjenit. Nu întâmplator a fost mentorul fratelui său, Marin Sorescu, căruia i-a intuit vocația, încurajându-l să scrie și să publice lucrările. Își amintea cu drag despre Marin, care spunea: „Nu sunt un vorbitor la microfon, sunt un vorbitor cu pana“. A fost foarte afectat de pierderea timpurie a fratelui său și – conștient că nimeni altcineva nu se va mai încumeta la o muncă de Sisif – a lăsat la o parte studiile Domniei Sale la care lucra și a început să colecteze scrisori, însemnări, manuscrise, poezii, tot ce a lăsat nelucrat Marin Sorescu și să le valorifice, publicând, de-a lungul anilor, volume interesante de corespondențe. Vorbind despre călătoriile sale, Marin Sorescu spunea: „Plimb cățelul pământului“ (cățelul pământului fiind poezia, care îl purta prin lume). “Eu i-am stat împrejur lui Marin Sorescu, dar fără să îi revendic geniul, pentru că-l avea. Eu doar l-am intuit” - mărturisea profesorul George Sorescu. În volumul „Aripi în timp“, domnul profesor George Sorescu îi dedică lui Marin Sorescu poezia “Nu l-am văzut...”, din care cităm un fragment: „De ce mă-ntrebi/ Doar îl știi.../ Este un neistovit cântec/ Cu alt urcuș/ Spre tării;/ Un cântec aparte;/ O vie pecete/ Cu fără de seamăn/ Simboluri - idei,/ Cu lumi în vârtej, Cu rustice dansuri,/ Cu iele,/ Aruncată nadins într-un vis,/ Și peste sufletul meu/ Și pe cărările mele”. (“Marea trecere”)
84
Mereu fascinat de frumusețea locurilor natale, de care îl leagă frumoase amintiri, domnul profesor mărturisește: „Prin livezi, printre/ Flori,/ Pasul meu sărută/ Iar amintiri…/ Câte rostogoliri!/ În cimitir,/ Uitare și cruci/ Și valuri de iarbă,/ Poteci…/ Suflete, ce încerci?/ Ce cauți în adânc/ Și-n afar’ ?.../ Două lumi în hotar!”. („Căutări”) Acesta este portretul unui profesor, care s-a ridicat, prin calitatea actului didactic săvârșit, prin dragostea pentru profesie, pe care și-a exprimat-o atât cu fiecare curs susținut, la rang de Maestru, pentru că, nu numai că și-a îndeplinit cu onestitate datoria, dar a știut, a deținut marele talent al profesionalismului specific, de a crea suportul afectiv necesar pentru a transmite mesajul către receptor. Modele de profesionalism, adevărate conștiințe, care ne-au educat și instruit, devenind repere în viața noastră. Personal, voi rămâne același discipol fascinat de fiecare dată de discursul Domniei Sale, prins în vârtejul tulburător și mirific al unei lumi create din cuvinte bine meșteșugite.
85