The Balance Between Carbon Reduction and Net Zero

AUTHOR: David Jarrett Editor@ RDJ Publishing and RDJ Group ChiefExecutiveOfficer

It is becoming a regular occurrence globally to hear that “greenies are scaring others” making sustainable actions considered scare mongering Jennifer

Pallanich covering the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference (HFTC), notes that (fracking) energy executives (fossil fuel) sectors, have a dilemma on their hands It basically is that in the face of climate change realities, “is our industry dying or is it just noise”?

The energy transition, a pivotal component in achieving net-zero emissions, endeavors to shift humanity away from reliance on fossil fuels, notorious for their environmental impacts when consumed at current levels Regrettably, prevailing marketing and awareness efforts have predominantly focused on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, neglecting the crucial aspect of lifestyle choices, thereby complicating the realization of the Paris Agreement's objectives Additionally, it's essential to acknowledge that Africa's direct contribution to global climate change is estimated at a modest 7%

Furthermore, society must confront the looming reality of exhausting finite resources like oil and gas, leading to economic ramifications As supplies diminish and demand fluctuates, the potential for price inflation becomes a pressing concern

Despite these challenges, several African nations have staked their economic future on the production and www.rdjpublishing.africa export of crude oil. Nigeria, for instance, is investing heavily in refining infrastructure, exemplified by the Dangote Oil Refinery project, which aims to not only meet domestic demand but also generate surplus refined products for export The recent move to reduce fuel prices, applauded by the Nigerian President, underscores the intricate interplay between supply and demand dynamics

Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil and gas exports, constituting approximately 93% of total export revenue (roughly USD 7 billion), underscores the significance of its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% Consequently, Nigeria has set a target date of 2060 to achieve net-zero emissions, recognizing the profound impact of oil revenues on its economic stability.

Conversely, oil-importing African nations are actively exploring strategies to reduce dependency on fossil fuels Kenya, for instance, has formulated a comprehensive Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), with the aim of transitioning towards a net-zero emissions trajectory by 2050. Notably, this initiative has garnered presidential support, including the launch of the Kenyan LT-LEDS, which targets a 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030

It's unsurprising that both Nigeria and Kenya identify the transport sector as a significant contributor to energy www.rdjpublishing.africa e-mobilityCourtesy:MAN/ABB demand However, the specific areas within the transport sector driving this demand remain ambiguous. While there's an assumption that urban transport needs play a substantial role, clarifying the precise sources of demand is crucial for facilitating sustainable development and achieving net-zero targets

One of the primary criticisms of "clean" vehicles revolves around the requirement for extensive infrastructure, such as charging points, and perceived aesthetic shortcomings. Additionally, skeptics highlight the potential environmental drawbacks of electric vehicles (EVs) being charged from coal and oil-fired power systems Concerns also extend to the impracticality of recharging times, with level 1 and level 2 charging taking anywhere from 4 to 12 hours On the opposing side, advocates against fossil fuels emphasize the high levels of pollutants emitted and the complexities associated with traditional refueling methods, including safety risks.

Similarly, the energy transition necessitates substantial capital investment, with some projections estimating costs of up to USD 100 billion annually Moreover, as society increasingly relies on electronic devices, demand for energy will inevitably rise, placing upward pressure on costs.

Regardless of one's stance on this issue, it's evident that oil prices will escalate in the future, irrespective of the trajectory. Forecasts suggest considerable variability, withsomepredictingpricesrangingfromUSD61to80per barrel by 2025 Notably, future pricing dynamics will be heavily influenced by demand patterns, particularly in sectorssuchasheatingandtransportation

Is Africa ready? Net-zero must therefore have a more bottom-up approach, focussing on areas such as public transport, allowing for public confidence building and gradual build out of infrastructure As always, the conversationcontinues esa@rdjpublishing.africa .

Readings: https://www hartenergy com/exclusives/amid-climatescaremongering-energy-execs-urge-engagement-realism-208064 https://issuu com/rdjpublishing/docs/rdj briefing - august 2023 https://www dangote com/our-business/oil-and-gas/ https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/3-wayssustain-africas-net-zero-future-long-term https://ndcpartnership org/news/kenya-unveils-comprehensivelegal-framework-accelerate-climate-action https://www carbonbrief org/the-carbon-brief-profile-nigeria/ https://netzeroclimate org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NZBusinesses-Africa-report-Nov22.pdf https://netzeroclimate org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/NZBusinesses-Africa-report-Nov22 pdf www.rdjpublishing.africa