Is 2050 Net Zero Emission Scenario Possible?

AUTHOR: Grace Kangotue ChiefResearcher/Economist@ RDJ Consulting

Carbondioxideemissionsofthetransportationsectorworldwidefrom1990to2022,byregion (inmillionmetrictons)

Courtesy:Statista

The global pursuit of net zero emissions by 2050 is a defining challenge of our time, demanding concerted efforts across all sectors to effectively mitigate climate change Some feel that Africa holds the answer and opportunity to meet net zero through low carbon emissions Among these sectors, transportation poses a significant hurdle due to its complexity and substantial contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Despite these challenges, there are promising technologies and commitments that offer hope for a greener future

The transport sector stands as a core contributor to global emissions, with aviation, shipping, and road haulage often deemed as hard-to-decarbonize industries. Recent insights from the World Economic Forum suggest that synthetic fuels could emerge as viable alternatives to fossil fuels, potentially revolutionizing the way we power planes, ships, and trucks With road transport alone accounting for over three-quarters of total mobility emissions, the urgency to explore such alternatives cannotbeoverstated.

As part of the clean mobility efforts, McKinsey & Company highlight options such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2-ICEs), as well as biofuel or synfuel internal combustion engines as promising avenues Despite this, they caution that hybrid and gas engines must serve as temporary solutions rather than long-term ones due to their inability to achieve zero emissionsindependently

The momentum towards zero-emission vehicles has gained further traction at COP26 in 2021, where stakeholders pledged to fully adopt such vehicles in all sales by 2040, if not earlier This ambitious commitment underscoresthepressingneedforacceleratedaction www.rdjpublishing.africa within the transport sector, particularly in decarbonizing road transport, which accounts for a substantial portion of emissions With the global population on an upward trajectory and road transport being the predominant mode of mobility, failure to act swiftly could spell disaster

Is net zero truly achievable?

Recent data revealed a sobering reality, with global CO2 emissions from the transport sector rising by 3% in 2022, producing 7 86 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2 compared to 2021 This increase underscores the pressing need for action to curb emissions in the transportation sector. To meet the target of achieving net zero emissions in the transport sector by 2030, a substantial reduction of 25% in emissions is required within the coming years

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the electric vehicle (EV) market showed promising signs during the same period, with sales growing by 14% of all car sales, aligning with the trajectory towards 2030 net zero emissions targets. Yet, regional disparities remain stark, with 95% of electric car sales concentrated in China, the United States, and Europe Such variations underscore the uneven pace of the clean energy transition across different countries, highlighting the need for tailored approaches to decarbonization.

Although, existing technologies offer pathways to emission reduction, the road to net zero in transport is fraught with challenges Resource mobilization such as charging points and other critical infrastructure, Courtesy:energy-baseorg including investments in renewable energy, and technology, is crucial for facilitating this transition Still, disparities in resources and implementation capabilities among countries may definitely prolong the journey toward net zero This is clearly amplified by Martina Biene, Chairperson and Managing Director of Volkswagen Group Africa stating "As most global vehicle markets transition to electric vehicles, African markets like South Africa will continue manufacturing and selling vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) for the foreseeablefuture"

Thus we believe achieving net zero emissions in transportation by 2050 is a formidable, yet achievable goal. While challenges remain, technological advancements and policy commitments provide a foundation for progress; although disparities in implementation capabilities and resource availability may extend the timeline for certain regions. Nonetheless, with concerted efforts and international collaboration, the vision of a net zero transport sector is within reach, even if it may require more time than the original set timeframe

Readings:

https://www.pwc.com/sg/en/publications/assets/page/ai-drivennet-zero pdf https://www weforum org/agenda/2021/11/net-zero-emissionscop26-climate-change/ https://www mckinsey com/industries/automotive-andassembly/our-insights/how-hydrogen-combustion-engines-cancontribute-to-zero-emissions https://www iea org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles https://www iea org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023 https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles www.rdjpublishing.africa