The Actuary - December 2019

DECEMBER 2019 theactuary.com

The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Antibiotic resistance: a ticking time bomb?

Interview

Pensions

Modelling

Risk

Ray Hammond on the future of money, work and healthcare

How do we divide pension pots fairly during divorce?

Assessing eligibility for the variable fee approach

Scenarios that help ďŹ rms get to grips with climate change

1 cover_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 1

22/11/2019 15:51

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Contents December 2019

34 Features 14 Interview: Ray Hammond The futurist talks about the digital revolution transforming healthcare, banking and careers

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18 Pensions: A fairer outcome Dr Ian Sharpe on ensuring equal pensions treatment during divorce 21 Modelling: How do your contracts measure up?

How can we assess eligibility for the variable fee approach under IFRS 17?

Steven Morrison investigates 24 Health: The best medicine?

Matthew Edwards discusses the threat of antibiotic resistance

Up Front 4 Editorial In his final editor’s letter, Francisco Sebastian highlights the importance of continuing professional development 5 President’s comment John Taylor shares some examples of the IFoA’s vital work advising policymakers

COVER: SHUTTERSTOCK / SARAH AULD

6 IFoA news The latest IFoA news and events

28 Risk: Counting up to green Ben Carr looks at measures that help firms consider climate risk 30 Technology: Breaching digital risks Cyber insurance is evolving rapidly, says Yaffa Cohen-Ifrah

35 Puzzles 36 People/society news The latest news, updates and events 38 On the record Russell Greenstreet talks changing university courses and a lucky mistake at the horse races

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32 Finance: Access to cash We need to improve digital financial inclusion as part of the shift towards a cashless economy, says Ian Collier

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03 contents_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 3

34 School of thought Amid Brexit uncertainty, George Burton considers insurance against political risk

31 Regulation: Liboring the issue Simon Richards shares the Working Party for Libor Reform’s findings

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At The Back

Additional content including daily news can be found at www.theactuary.com Weekly newsletter: for all the latest actuarial news, features and opinion direct to your inbox, sign up at bit.ly/1MN3bXK DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 3

25/11/2019 15:17

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PUBLISHER Redactive Publishing Ltd Level 5, 78 Chamber Street, London, E1 8BL +44 (0)20 7880 6200 PUBLISHING DIRECTOR Anthony Moran MANAGING EDITOR Sharon Maguire +44 (0)20 7880 6246 sharon.maguire@redactive.co.uk A S S I S TA N T E D I T O R Kathryn Manning +44 (0)20 7324 2792 kathryn.manning@redactive.co.uk

EDITOR Francisco Sebastian editor@theactuary.com F E AT U R E S E D I T O R S Sharad Bajla, general insurance Stephen Hyams, pensions Paul Malloy, reinsurance, life insurance Henry Mungalsingh, pensions VS Rajeshwarie, GI Thanuja Krishnaratna, life Contact: features@theactuary.com PEOPLE/SOCIETY NEWS EDITOR social@theactuary.com Kathryn Manning kathryn.manning@redactive.co.uk

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FRANCISCO SEBASTIAN

A fond farewell Two years ago, I tried to distil thoughts relevant to actuaries into my editor’s letter for the first time. Now I am doing it for the last time.

During this period, we have covered many topics – some well known, such as the challenges in the pensions field, others which could have appeared far-fetched, such as how technology will shape our lives.

Although these topics may have morphed over time, the underlying message has remained constant: the nature of our problems evolves and the solutions we come up with must adjust accordingly.

It is comforting to think that the knowledge which enabled us to qualify as actuaries does suffice to overcome the challenges we face.

Unfortunately, that thought can lead some of us to complacency – and, subsequently, to stop investing in ourselves. I do not have a crystal ball but I am certain that, unless we keep developing ourselves professionally, we will suffer the ignominy of relegation. For that reason, as editor, my overarching strategic goal has been to promote ideas that could inspire others to think about their future. I am also certain that actuaries have incredibly solid foundations to build on, and most are doing so. In some cases this will be through small changes – for example, adjusting to new regulations such as IFRS 17 or Solvency II. In others, we must develop and master new technologies that can solve problems in a radically different (and more efficient) manner. It is the succession of small evolutionary efforts that keeps all of us engaged and relevant.

During the last two years, I have had the privilege of interacting with many of you, and I feel immensely grateful for the vast knowledge and experience you have kindly shared. It is your contributions, along with those of The Actuary’s features and editorial teams, that makes this publication an incredibly powerful vehicle for all of us to keep learning and developing. Please stay generous and keep those contributions coming!

Wholeheartedly wishing you a successful career and a happy life.

Published by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) The editor and the IFoA are not responsible for the opinions put forward in The Actuary. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form, or by any means, without prior written permission of the copyright owners.

While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the content, the publisher and its contributors accept no responsibility for any material contained herein. © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, December 2019 All rights reserved ISSN 0960-457X

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FRANCISCO SEBASTIAN EDITOR editor@theactuary.com

www.theactuary.com

25/11/2019 15:18

J O H N TAY LO R

Wise counsel

T

h ck hi c he UK general election is under way and the air is thick with accusations of ‘fake news’. And while Brexit is a key topic, social care and pensions are featuring prominently in the campaign, too.

The IFoA has been engaging with policymakers on those and other topics for many years. We do so because our Royal Charter obliges us to act in the public interest, and informing public policy is central to that obligation. Our expertise allows us to provide evidence-based contributions to policy debates, helping policymakers reach better-informed decisions. Indeed, we know from stakeholder surveys that our commentary is highly valued because it is underpinned by independent, authoritative analysis.

Some recent examples include: Jules Constantinou (immediate past president) giving evidence to the Health and Social Care Committee, and Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee on social care funding Andrew Lowe (chair of the IFoA Future Pensions Landscape Working Party) has been appointed to the Money and Pensions Service Pensions Dashboard Industry Delivery Group The report Saving for retirement, which is the fourth briefing on the IFoA’s pensions adequacy campaign, was covered in the Financial Times and by numerous industry commentators My recent meeting with the chair of the Centre of Data Ethics and Innovation.

This type of work has several benefits for members. Firstly, it reinforces the reputation of the profession. Our public affairs activity demonstrates to policymakers and other stakeholders the value the actuarial profession can add. Indeed, you told us in the last

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member survey that being part of a highly esteemed profession was a principal benefit of membership.

Secondly, it provides opportunities for volunteers to get involved.

Many of you have a passion for the work you do and therefore want policymakers to make better decisions. While not everyone will have the dubious honour of presenting to a select committee, there are many other ways to contribute to our public affairs work. For example, we often establish working groups that will develop the profession’s response to specific issues. More generally, the practice boards are invaluable in enabling us to contribute to the many consultations from governments and regulators.

As we look forward, we are also considering how to extend the reach of our public affairs work internationally. Although our public affairs focus is predominantly UK-based, many of the topics have global relevance, whether we’re looking at trends in demographics, climate change or data science. We’re considering how best to do this, potentially in partnership with local actuarial associations. However we do it, our intention is to share our insights more widely and create more opportunities for our global membership.

JOHN TAYLOR As always, the IFoA’s commitment is to remain is the president a reliable and authoritative voice on actuarial of the Institute topics – so that we can continue to benefit and Faculty of policymakers, members and the wider public.

Actuaries

“Our expertise allows us to provide evidence-based contributions to policy debates”

DECEMBER AUTUMN 2019 2017 | THE ACTUARY | 5

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Upfront News

S U S TA I N A B L E D E V E LO P M E N T

IFoA and UKSSD run joint SDG workshop 2030. The goals and targets were chosen On Monday 28 October 2019, UK Stakeholders for their ability to stimulate action during for Sustainable Development (UKSSD) ran a the following 15 years in areas of critical small workshop with IFoA members. The importance for humanity and the planet. purpose of the workshop was to explore the These areas include people, planet, prosperity value of the UN’s Sustainable Development and partnership.

Goals (SDGs). The workshop was part In 2018, the UKSSD report Measuring up: of an ongoing UKSSD research project How the UK is performing on the UN Sustainable to explore progress towards the SDGs Development Goals concluded in the UK and the views of that the UK is on track to different sectors.

In 2018, the UK achieve just 24% of SDG Members from the was on track to targets. Performance across resource and environment, achieve only goals 5 – gender equality, pensions, finance and 9 – industry, infrastructure investment and risk and innovation, and 13 – management practice of the targets climate action was particularly areas participated in the of the UN’s poor. The UK’s performance discussion. Views captured Sustainable was not considered good in the discussion will inform Development enough to meet any of the a UKSSD briefing about Goals. targets under each of these what is required to ensure goals. With just over 10 years the UK government enables With just over 10 to go, accelerated action is and supports people and years to go, required if the goals are to organisations to do their accelerated bit. UKSSD is also seeking action is required be achieved.

The IFoA has also been views through an online if the goals are to considering the specific survey, which is open to be achieved role of actuaries in achieving all. You can complete the the goals through its SDG survey at bit.ly/36V51l2 campaign. You can learn more about the The SDGs, which the UN adopted SDG campaign and the innovative ways in September 2015, are at the heart actuaries are contributing toward the goals, of its sustainability agenda. The 17 goals for example by designing motor insurance and 169 associated targets are aimed at products to improve road safety in India, eradicating all forms of poverty in both at bit.ly/34QQrJs developed and developing nations by

24%

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IN BRIEF...

Celebrating diversity in the actuarial profession In October we welcomed almost 180 people at both Count Me In at Staple Inn and Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh. These events were designed to introduce talented students from backgrounds that have historically been underrepresented to the actuarial profession, and break down any misconceptions they may have about becoming an actuary.

Our speakers and panellists represented as wide a section of society as possible, and helped the students discover the range of rewarding careers available in actuarial science. The speakers and panellists shared their personal actuarial journeys, the challenges they faced along the way and advice on securing a trainee role. Thank you to all sponsors and speakers, who made this event such a success.

Have you paid your subscription fee?

If you have not already renewed your IFoA membership for 2019/2020, you can still renew your membership by paying your subscription fee before 31 December 2019.

You will now be subject to a 20% late payment fee.

You can renew quickly and simply online by logging in to the My Account area of the IFoA website (bit.ly/IFoAlogin) and going to the My Payments section.

If you have any questions about your membership subscriptionm please email us at membership@ actuaries.org.uk or call us on +44(0)131 240 1325. www.theactuary.com

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Upfront News

ACTUARIAL REVIEW

OUTREACH

IFoA appoints senior review actuary

Presidential visits to the Middle East, Africa and China

We are pleased to announce the appointment of David Gordon to the role of senior review actuary at the IFoA. Gordon comes to the IFoA with more than 30 years’ experience in the pensions industry. He has worked with Willis Towers Watson throughout his career, advising numerous UK pension schemes and their sponsors on how best to deliver funding, investment and risk management.

Alongside client work, Gordon provides guidance to colleagues worldwide on best practice and professional issues. He is Willis Towers Watson’s senior quality assurance representative under the IFoA’s Quality Assurance Scheme and was voted the Actuarial Post’s Pensions Actuary of the Year 2016.

Gordon will be heading up the IFoA’s Actuarial Review Team, working with IFoA Executive colleagues, specialists and experts in the delivery of the Thematic Review Programme (bit.ly/2NYE1IM). The Thematic Review Programme was announced in September 2019 following proposals to monitor the quality of actuarial work.

The Thematic Review Programme will review how work is carried out by actuaries in practice, including review of the work itself, allowing the IFoA to share good practice with members and their employers. We are thrilled to have David Gordon joining the IFoA and look forward to welcoming him as a colleague at our Edinburgh offices from January 2020.

In December 2019, the IFoA presidential team will be out visiting the regions within their presidential remit. President John Taylor will be visiting Dubai, UAE and Nairobi, Kenya, while president-elect Tan Suee Chieh will be visiting Shanghai and Beijing, China. They will be meeting with members, employers and other stakeholders during their visit.

John Taylor’s trip will be the presidential team’s first visit to the Middle East since 2016.

In Kenya, his visit will be to our largest member population and the largest concentration of IFoA Fellows in Africa, outside of South Africa.

Tan Suee Chieh’s visit will be his first visit to China as the IFoA’s president-elect. He will meet with IFoA members, employers, local professional associations, universities and other stakeholders across the country.

Look out for further news on their visits in the next editions of The Actuary, newsletters and the IFoA website.

2020 IFoA events February 24 Feb: Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party – Edinburgh March 11 March: Highlights of the Life Conference – London 12 March: Data Science Seminar – Usage of data science approach – London April 14 April: CIGI 2020 – London May 8 May: 20 May:

Finance and Investment Conference – London CILA 2020 – London

June 02-03 June: Protection, Health and Care Conference – Brighton 11 June:

Mortality and Longevity Seminar – London

16-17 June:

TIGI 2020 – London

18-19 June:

Pensions Conference 2020 – Manchester

24-25 June: Asia Conference 2020 – Kuala Lumpur September 22 Sept: Chief Actuaries and Senior Life Actuaries Workshop – London October 28 Oct: Hot Topics in Health and Care - London November 18-20 Nov:

Life Conference 2020 – Edinburgh

Plan your CPD for the year ahead Find the latest IFoA workshops, seminars, webinars, events and conferences as they are added at www.actuaries.org.uk/events

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DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 7

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Upfront News STUDENTS

Tan Suee Chieh visits LSE This October, president-elect Tan Suee Chieh visited his alma mater, the London School of Economics (LSE), and took part in the Actuarial Insights Series alongside IFoA council member Kartina Tahir Thomson.

As part of the event, he spoke with 50 students from the LSE Actuarial Student Society, who were eager to hear his insights into where the profession is heading and how they can prepare to be part of the actuarial profession of the future. In an engaging interactive session, students asked questions about the challenges facing the profession, the skills required to overcome them, and how the profession could be redefined for the future.

The society members really enjoyed the session; students formed a queue to get a picture with the president-elect and kindly presented him with a gift as a token of their gratitude. Thanks to the Actuarial Student Society for organising the event, and to Tahir Thomson for taking part.

TRAINING

First university accreditation in Thailand On 8 November, the IFoA awarded the first university accreditation in Thailand to Mahidol University’s BSc Actuarial Science programme.

We were honoured to welcome Thailand’s deputy minister of education Khunying Kalaya Sophonpanich, president of Mahidol University professor Banchong Mahaisavariya, and distinguished representatives from the Office of Insurance Commission, Society of Actuaries of Thailand, Thai Life Assurance Association and Thai General Insurance Association to this ceremony. The IFoA was represented by Chris Bristow, head of education partnership and lifelong learning, and South-East Asia representative Caryn Chua.

We look forward to working with Mahidol University and together will strive to contribute and strengthen the actuarial profession in Thailand. For the IFoA’s full list of worldwide university partners, visit bit.ly/33CR8pI

EVENTS AND CONFERENCES 09 12 19

20 01 20

Sessional Meeting – Silent Cyber Assessment Framework

Sessional Meeting – Operational Risk Dependencies

S TA P L E I N N H A L L , LO N D O N

R O YA L C O L L E G E O F P H Y S I C I A N S OF EDINBURGH, 9 QUEEN ST EDINBURGH

This sessional presents a paper that proposes a framework to help insurance companies address the issue of nonaffirmative cyber risk across their portfolios. While the framework is not intended to be an all-encompassing solution to the issue, it has been developed to help those tasked with addressing the issue to be able to perform a structured analysis of it.

06 01 20 ARC Sessional Research Event: Drivers of Mortality – Risk Factors and Inequality S TA P L E I N N H A L L , LO N D O N

This sessional will be delivered by members of the research team working on the ARC Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk programme, led by Professor Andrew Cairns of Heriot-Watt University.

The Operational Risk Working Party aims to assist actuaries and others in the modelling and management of operational risk. At this sessional it presents its paper on financial services companies and, in particular, banks, asset managers and insurers, which it is hoped also has wider relevance.

23 01 20 Professional Skills Training – Edinburgh IF O A E D I N B U R G H , L E V E L 2 E X C H A N G E C R E S C E N T, EDINBURGH

A two- hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area.

16 01 20 Professional Skills Training – London S TA P L E I N N H A L L , LO N D O N

A two-hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area.

View all of our workshops, seminars, webinars, events, and conferences at www. actuaries.org.uk/event

IFoA event sponsorship Sponsoring or exhibiting at one of our events can showcase your products or services to some of the 10,000 actuaries who regularly attend our events.

Association with an IFoA event is an unmistakable marketing opportunity for both sectorspecific companies and high-end brands.

The IFoA has a wide range of opportunities available to companies interested in supporting an event. There is a choice of sponsor packages to fit around your budget and the chance to purchase an exhibition stand in a prime location with guaranteed networking time with delegates.

Visit www.actuaries.org.uk/sponsors-exhibitors

8 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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25/11/2019 15:20

Upfront News RISK

The Risk Coalition to publish guidance CONFERENCE

IFoA at the 22nd AAC The 22nd Asian Actuarial Conference (AAC) was held in Singapore from 21-24 October 2019 on the island of Sentosa. The conference saw more than 750 delegates and 60 speakers from 28 countries come together during these four days.

On day two, the IFoA hosted a panel session titled Leading Change in New Paradigms.

The session was moderated by president-elect Tan Suee Chieh and joined by four highly esteemed speakers: Anusha Thavarajah (FIA), incoming regional CEO for life and health Asia Pacific at Allianz Azim Mithani (FIA), executive vice president at Singapore Life, one of Singapore’s leading digital life insurers Charles Hung, CEO and executive director at Blue, a Hong Kong digital insurance joint venture owned by Aviva, Hillhouse and Tencent Ofir Shalev, chief data officer at GoJek, SouthEast Asia’s leading on-demand multi-service platform and digital payment technology group.

The Risk Coalition is a network of not-for-profit professional bodies and membership organisations committed to raising standards of risk governance and risk management in the UK. The Coalition launched its Risk Guidance Initiative in 2018 to provide a framework and forum for UK financial services regulated firms to develop best practice.

The IFoA is one of the Coalition’s Supporting Organisations, contributing to the development of the Risk Guidance through the involvement of its risk specialists and broader membership.

The Coalition has been consulting on principles-based good practice guidance for all financial services firms, in terms of boards’ responsibilities for risk

and the role of the CRO. The guidance is intended to become the first commonly agreed benchmark for ‘what good looks like’ in this area. The Risk Coalition’s aim in publishing the guidance is to improve the overall quality of risk management within the UK financial services sector and to take better advantage of the opportunities presented by technological, environmental and economic change in the wider world.

The Coalition is set to publish the final guidance in December.

This will take account of stakeholder comments, including those submitted by the IFoA, as developed by the Risk Management Board and Research Committee.

Please visit our website page on the Risk Coalition at bit.ly/33ycrsq

We were delighted to meet with many members from all over the world at the IFoA’s exhibition booth and evening reception.

ARC

Working party researching diabetes mortality and morbidity risk CO-CHAIRS: SCOTT REID AND NICOLA OLIVER

The Diabetes Working Party was set up in 2018 and is now commissioning funded research through the Actuarial Research Centre (ARC).

The brief aims of the working party are: To understand increased risk of medical complications in those with diabetes, including the impact of behavioural and/or modifiable risk factors and implications for chronic conditions later in life To understand how the industry www.theactuary.com

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underwrites this risk in the UK and Asia To provide a mortality and morbidity table at a granular level and understand how risk factors are changing over time and why To gain insights from data science modelling techniques.

This research will be of interest to those insurers and reinsurers that write protection business and longevity products.

The insurance industry currently underwrites customers with diabetes based

on a range of factors, medical expertise and various medical studies. The work undertaken here would help the industry to approach this using current research findings to update and enhance how potential risk from diabetes is considered.

ARC will oversee this project to ensure academic rigour of the research. The working party is planning to complete this work towards the end of 2020 and will be presenting preliminary results midway through 2020.

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 9

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Upfront News

NOT all heroes wear capes To mark International Volunteer Day (5 December) and as part of the IFoA’s campaign to celebrate the exceptional commitment of IFoA volunteers, eight presidents of the IFoA, and the president-elect, share their thoughts on IFoA volunteering Jane Curtis President 2011 “I have been volunteering since 1985, in education and regulation, as president, and am currently representing the IFoA at the International Actuarial Association.

“Why am I still volunteering?

I get tremendous enjoyment out of the variety of work and I meet some great people along the way. I feel as though I can make a difference and that my opinions are valued.

“On passing my last exam in 1985, actuarial colleagues suggested that I volunteer.

I did, and have never regretted that decision. It has given me experiences which I would never have had as part of my day job. It has given me the skills and confidence to do that job even better.”

David Hare President 2013 “I started volunteering for the IFoA pretty much straight away after I 10 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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qualified in 1988. My first role was as career adviser at Glasgow University – I didn’t realise I was helping to recruit a future president when I met a PhD student called John Taylor!

“The IFoA has rapidly become an organisation with an international remit – a process I’ve been glad to be part of. Nowadays, it’s so easy for international members to get involved, not only in activities in their local region, but also collaborating with colleagues in London or wherever they are based using digital technologies.

“I’ve learned a huge amount in 30 years of volunteering – not just about actuarial matters, but also governance skills and strategic thinking. And it’s been a lot of fun.

“A small profession like ours needs its members to volunteer if it is to continue to punch above its weight.”

Nick Salter President 2014 “As president, I set out to place diversity at the heart of the IFoA. I had great support from the executive team in this and everything we did. But they’d be the first to say that they can only work with what we members give them. It’s thanks to the commitment of fellow volunteers that my presidential programme had a real impact.

“I first volunteered – for the old Institute of Actuaries – back in 1986, because I was told by my peers in my first actuarial role at Duncan C Fraser that it was ‘the right thing to do’.

“I felt that I had something particular to give – I have a background in economics, which is a little unusual for an actuary.

“And, as members, we should be more than just spectators or consumers!”

Fiona Morrison President 2015 “What’s the value of volunteering?

“I have found volunteering to be wonderfully fulfilling, with opportunities to develop skills alongside the day job.

And I have met so many interesting people outside of my circle.

“When I was president four years ago, more than 3,500 of us were volunteers, and that number has grown since to more than 4,000.

I remember trying to ‘monetise’ this – say, in a single year, 4,000 people do 20 hours of volunteering for the IFoA and we place a notional commercial value of £100 an hour, that is £8m worth of volunteering!

“I admire and celebrate the volunteers, and the outputs that help the IFoA to benefit business, government and society.”

Colin Wilson President 2016 “When I qualified, my boss – who was himself a volunteer for the Institute – encouraged me to get involved.

“I enjoyed it so much and found the wider perspective it gave me so useful that I didn’t stop volunteering for the next 20 years, at the end of which time I found I was president.

“At the end of my term on the presidential team I took a short break, but am now again looking for ways in which I can give something back to my profession.” www.theactuary.com

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Upfront News

Marjorie Ngwenya President 2017 “Volunteers are vital to the success of our profession. And we’re very lucky to benefit from such a high level of member engagement.

“Time is in short supply, but I feel a sense of responsibility to the people before me, those who marked my exam papers, put together events I attended and policy papers I read.

“Within the profession there is a ready-made community where I can make a difference.

“Since 2006, I have volunteered, alongside many colleagues, as an editor for The Actuary, on Council and Management Board, and, of course, as IFoA president. In the last few years I have been able to do all this as a South Africa-based member.

“I’m very proud to be part of this global volunteer community.”

Jules Constantinou President 2018 “I want to thank each of the 4,000-plus members who volunteer for the IFoA. But I know they’re not doing it for recognition. They’re doing it because they feel they have something to give to advance our profession.

“And we do all have something to give. We need people from a diversity of backgrounds to share their ideas, and we must give these volunteers licence to take responsibility and make a difference.

“I joined the Risk Member Interest Group in 2006. I wanted to work with like-minded actuaries www.theactuary.com

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to create an opportunity for our profession to move into this adjacent field.

“The IFoA now has a Risk Practice Board and the CERA qualification, and many actuaries work in and lead risk functions in industry.

“In this role and many others, I was a part of a team working for positive change in our profession. I want more people to join that team, to volunteer, to get involved.”

John Taylor Current president “Jimmy Reid said: ‘I am convinced that the great mass of our people go through life without even a glimmer of what they could have contributed to their fellow human beings.’

“I myself started volunteering out of a sense of responsibility towards the customers who rely on the work that actuaries do.

That led to volunteering for an IFoA Working Party, aiming to improve people’s retirements.

“But I also wanted to ‘give something back’ for the good fortune that I have had, in a free education in Scotland and subsequently a fulfilling career.

“We are fortunate indeed that so many colleagues share these motivations and are awake to their potential to contribute; it has helped our professional body to punch way above its weight.

“As president of the IFoA (a volunteer myself ) I want to thank all our volunteers (past and present) for all that you do. You are driving the IFoA forward and shaping the future of the profession.”

Tan Suee Chieh President-elect “When I was a student – 40 years ago!

– I remember the printed journals I received. In the inside cover it said: ‘I hold every man a debtor to his profession’ – Sir Francis Bacon.

“I am proud and grateful to be given the opportunity to give back to the actuarial profession through volunteer positions, as a member of Council since 2017 and now as part of the presidential team.

“Often, the issues we handle are complex and contentious. However, I enjoy working through them with fellow members, the executive and the IFoA’s partners. Everyone I meet has good intentions and wants the best for the profession.

“I am fortunate to have an opportunity to influence the future of the profession, helping it to greater prominence, to reach beyond traditional boundaries and to join the dots with emerging advances in other disciplines – and to strengthen the IFoA in my local region.”

Find out more and get involved at: www.actuaries. org. uk/volunteering-ifoa

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 11

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Features Interview

Ray Hammond has a long record of accurate foresight about the future, such as identifying the coming importance of the internet shortly after its launch.

How did he become a ‘futurist’?

“It happened by accident,” he says. “After finishing with journalism, I wanted to become a writer. During a small book tour in San Diego, I met the well-respected futurist Alvin Toffler. We kept in touch and he encouraged me to broaden out beyond technology, which was then my focus, to understand the way that today’s trends may shape reality in 10 to 20 years’ time.”

The future of health Hammond is excited by the current revolutions in healthcare, of which he expects digital health to have the earliest impact. “Within 10 to 15 years, perhaps 30% of hospital ‘inpatients’ will be at home in bed but monitored so thoroughly that it’s almost as if they were in the hospital,” he says. “A team of mobile nurses will take care of their physical needs. It’s also going to have a profound impact on the way drugs are developed, because drug companies can use the data that flows back from digital devices to learn how we’re responding. Eventually, it will be as if every patient is taking part in a real-time clinical experiment.”

DNA-based and stem cell medicine will also play a significant role during the next five to 10 years. “For privacy reasons, it will take a while for people to accept having their DNA stored.,” says Hammond. “For many people, DNA stands for ‘do not ask’. Once the benefits of DNA analysis are understood fully, the word will spread and, with full consideration for privacy and data protection, DNA-based medicine will be an enormously powerful

“In 10 years’ time we will be taking organs ‘off the shelf’, or they’ll be grown to order”

14 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

14-16 INTERVIEW_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 14

tool.” He cites the detection of genetic abnormalities in the earliest stages of embryonic development during pregnancy as an example.

It’s early days for stem cell medicine, but Hammond predicts that it will become very important within 10 years. “It seems to have so many applications, a bit like penicillin, and promises to deal with lots of diseases that are currently intractable.” Using stem cells from one’s own body avoids the risk of rejection. “I’m certain that in 10 years’ time we will be taking organs ‘off the shelf’, or they’ll be grown to order for us.”

Hammond believes two other healthcare revolutions will have longer-term implications. The first is nanoscale medicine, which he believes “will have a huge impact, but not for another 20 years. Manipulating molecules at the nanoscale level will enable the production of drugs designed to produce specific proteins that are tailored for certain illnesses.” Nanoparticles are currently being developed for the targeted delivery of drugs, while there is some research involving nanoparticles that seeks to develop a vaccine for influenza. Hammond believes the other healthcare revolution will be in gene editing to enable removal of damaging pieces of DNA from a patient’s tissue – but care is needed to avoid it affecting the germline, for fear of unintended consequences.

Healthcare outlook What will be the collective impact of these developments? “During the next 20 to 30 years they will transform healthcare, and I think it is likely we will see a return to higher rates of mortality improvements in the UK, following the period of lower rates seen during the past few years.”

Hammond is excited by two recent pieces of research into anti-ageing, one of which removes senescent cells from the body. These cells are widely believed to www.theactuary.com

25/11/2019 15:24

Features Interview

Futurist Ray Hammond talks to Stephen Hyams about revolutions in healthcare, the future of work and cryptocurrencies

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 15

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Features Interview

contribute to ageing. The other work involves therapy to reprogram genes to reverse the ageing process.

“In human trials, there have been some startling achievements – in a single year, 70% to 80% of the patients had their biological clock reversed by two and a half years,” he says. “The results were so stunning that the researchers have easily been able to raise the money to carry out much wider trials. Until a year ago, I was highly sceptical about rejuvenation and life extension, but not any longer. By 2030 or 2040 I think we could see some patients extending their lives as healthy centenarians.” Within the next 20-30 years, Hammond also thinks that most types of cancer will be controllable, as opposed to being cured.

How can we meet the cost of healthcare for an ageing population?

“During the next 10 years it will be a problem, but there are indications that things will improve significantly, mostly thanks to digital technology,” says Hammond.

“The key is 5G networks, which will be super-fast and reliable, with instant, real-time responses and no bandwidth problems.” This will facilitate ‘distributed care’, in which many patients are monitored from their homes, thereby taking the pressure off hospital space.

“The healthcare revolutions will mean fewer people in hospital, and for less time.”

The collection and analysis of healthcare data is developing fast, and it must remain secure for people to remain comfortable in providing it. Could insurers seek to use the data for underwriting purposes? “There are currently legal barriers to the discriminatory use by insurers of DNA information, while they are also no longer allowed to ask the catch-all question of whether there is any other information that would be relevant.”

Digital monitoring devices will not be for everyone, while those who do use them will need clear instructions explaining that they are not fully accurate and no substitute for proper medical advice.

“Robotics will have developed to the point where most of the non-medical tasks in a hospital are handled by machines,” Hammond says. For example, a robot nurse in triage could perform standard tests before passing the patient to a doctor, if necessary. Remote robotic surgery will also become very efficient – “one eye specialist in London might be treating people anywhere in the UK, or around the world.” Another interesting development is the growing use of virtual reality as an alternative to conventional anaesthetic.

“By the mid2030s robots will be so ubiquitous, powerful and capable that a lot of human endeavour will not be needed”

Technology and work Will robotics and automation put jobs at risk? “During the next 15 years, there will be a lot of disruption in the workplace,” says Hammond. “People’s roles will change, 16 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

14-16 INTERVIEW_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 16

and retraining will be needed, but there will still be a lot of demand for human employment. After that period, I’m not so sure; by the mid-2030s I think robots will be so ubiquitous, powerful and capable that a lot of human endeavour will not be needed. Robots will be increasing productivity to such an extent that society will have enough money to give to people who are not employed.”

Such a fundamental change brings challenges, though.

“For many people, work is part of their identity, and when they’re denied it an important part of their life disappears,” Hammond says. “I don’t have the answer to that, but I’m worried.”

Part of the solution is to recognise and pay for carers in the family, and Hammond predicts there will still be plenty of demand here. “Robots will empathise and form attachments, but when real help or comfort is needed, I think we’ll want a human for the foreseeable future.”

I ask about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on replacing human work. “Today AI is, at best, as intelligent as a rodent. I think it will be at least 30 years before AI is a threat to humanity in terms of its decisionmaking capabilities.”

Cryptocurrencies and cash Hammond expects blockchain technology, invented for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, to have a huge and wideranging impact. “Blockchain will be everywhere – for example, managing patients in hospitals, or the assets and policies of an insurance company.” The biggest drawback is its high energy demand, but there have been recent breakthroughs in that respect.

“Cryptocurrencies do not need an issuing bank or government to authenticate them, as they are selfauthenticating, so this poses a threat to the conventional banking industry and national sovereignty over finance,” he continues. “I don’t see it happening on a big scale within 10 years, but in the longer term, if political will allows, there is no doubt that cryptocurrencies will replace fiat currencies.”

Does this signal the end of cash? “In my 1983 book Computers and Your Child I predicted there would be no cash in society by the year 2000,” Hammond says.

“I was looking at the technology, and in that respect my prediction could have been correct, but I was forgetting human psychology. People like to feel they hold cash.

I think cash will still be around in 10-15 years, but very much reduced.”

I conclude by asking Hammond what his biggest concern for the future is. “Climate change, with the extreme weather events that are going to become more frequent and severe and continue for at least the next 30-40 years.”

What excites him the most? “The continuing improvement in human health. I love the idea of looking to a future where most serious illness is eradicated, with far less human suffering.” www.theactuary.com

25/11/2019 15:24

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25/11/2019 17:18

Features Pensions

Dr Ian Sharpe discusses the Pensions Advisory Group’s guide to good practice in the area of pensions on divorce

18 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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I

n the UK, pensions on divorce often work well: the cash equivalent (CE) is readily available to divorcing couples, and a pension can be split between them, using that measure to create a clean break. In many cases, and especially when there are only defined contribution (DC) pensions, this is transparent, fair and consistent.

However, in defined benefit (DB) cases there can be pitfalls resulting from differences in valuation when the CE is used as the only measure. In cases where couples offset the pension (one party keeps their pension in exchange for a lower share of other marital assets), it is unclear whether the CE is the right measure. Offsetting is much more common than pension sharing. Expert advice, often from an actuary, can be taken to address these difficulties.

Unfortunately, the availability of expert advice is not sufficient to solve the problem. The Nuffield-funded study Pensions on Divorce (www. nuffieldfoundation.org/pensionsdivorce) found a lack of confidence among practitioners in the field, poor quality pension disclosures and a large proportion of potentially unfair outcomes. The Pensions (on divorce) Advisory Group (PAG) was formed to address this. This summer, after two years’ work and a consultation on its draft reports, it released a guide to good practice in England and Wales. PAG also conducted focus groups with pension experts and family lawyers, carried out a survey and received feedback on blogs and presentations around the country.

The PAG report includes: A steer on when an expert is needed or not needed What is required to be able to act as an expert, technically and professionally What lawyers should expect and check when instructing an expert

www.theactuary.com

18-20 divorce_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 19

Guidance on technical matters of valuation A default set of assumptions for pension sharing valuations Guidance on allowance for ‘utility’ (discussed below) and tax in offsetting.

All practitioners in the area of pensions on divorce will need to be familiar with the guide. Pensions actuaries will also benefit from familiarity with the issues addressed.

Why not just use the CE? The reasons a CE doesn’t always work might not be obvious, so consider an example. Suppose a couple – let’s call them Marge and Homer – are getting divorced. Homer has a DB pension from his job, while Marge has no pension.

Understandably, neither really knows what Homer’s pension might be ‘worth’ when compared to other assets. Their immediate focus is on the family home, custody and other issues. The only readily available valuation of Homer’s pension is a £100,000 CE, so they agree to split that 50:50. Marge’s £50,000 share goes to a DC pot with an external provider but, once the dust settles, it becomes apparent that it is likely to buy a far smaller pension than Homer’s residual 50% of the CE. What has gone wrong? The scheme’s CE is a reasonable reflection of the funds it needs to hold to finance Homer’s accrued pension. The trustees are not obliged to offer Marge a pension in their own scheme in respect of her 50% share – only a transfer. If the pension is shared, and Marge is expected to buy an annuity, there is a loss of total pension income because of the additional expense of buying an annuity on the open market

compared to the funds Homer’s scheme expects to need to finance the pension.

The main issue is that the valuation measure used was Homer’s CE, and that measure is not consistent with the DC valuation; the loss falls wholly on Marge.

UK context Scottish Widows’ Women and Retirement 2017 report suggests almost three quarters of divorcing couples do not consider pensions at all. Marge and Homer are already in a fairer position than such couples – fewer than one in six divorces include a pension sharing order.

Pensions on divorce is a serious issue in the UK, with a public interest aspect for the IFoA. According to ONS statistics, around 100,000 couples divorce in England and Wales each year. After any family home, pensions will generally be the largest assets.

If pensions are not carefully considered or are treated inconsistently, it will most often be wives who lose out. This is borne out in studies

by Age UK, the Chartered Insurance Institute and Scottish Widows.

“Where pensions are not carefully considered or are treated inconsistently, it will most often be wives who lose out”

Practitioners and professionalism The expert practitioners are a broad church. The PAG report calls them pension on divorce experts (PODEs).

Many are IFoA members, some are non-IFoA members who use the title ‘actuary’, others are independent financial advisors, and still others are comfortable that they have acquired appropriate skills via other routes.

This is muddied by the widespread use of ‘actuarial report’ as shorthand for the advice of a PODE who may or may not be an actuary.

The question of the correct competence and skills was essential for DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 19

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Features Pensions

the PAG, and of particular interest to the IFoA and its members, since this field has contributed a disproportionate number of cases to our profession’s disciplinary scheme. That fact does not reflect the valuable, expert and professional work undertaken by PODEs more generally. It seems likely that there are two contributing factors. First, the quality of Actuaries Code-type skills, especially timeliness, sometimes falls short, leading to financial and emotional consequences for the individuals affected.

Second, it would be easy for an unwary actuary to wrongly assume that they have the necessary breadth of competence for this specialist area.

The PAG report addresses this in three ways: It includes a comprehensive list of competencies for practitioners to selfcertify (Appendix D of the report). It is recommended that practitioners endorse this self-certification with a Statement of Truth (such a statement brings the self-certification into scope of proceedings for contempt of court if false).

It recommends that membership of professional bodies, the existence of a meaningful complaints procedure, professional indemnity insurance and peer review procedures are in the scope of the Statement of Truth. It also recommends that the solicitor (or any other person) instructing the PODE should check that such a statement will be included and put such relevant details before the court before the PODE is appointed.

However, the PAG report does not recommend that PODEs must be members of a professional body. There is a difficult balance to be struck here, and the IFoA’s response to the PAG consultation last summer reflected that. Membership of a professional body brings accountability, credibility, training and standards of professionalism that are valuable in a role where there is a public interest aspect. However, unless a new body were created (which was judged unfeasible) or membership of an existing body extended, then recommending membership of a 20 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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Offsetting and other cases

There is no substitute for expert knowledge and judgment, and the PAG report doesn’t ‘solve’ pensions on divorce or provide a simple recipe that works in every case. We hope the report will promote high standards of consistency, rigour, professionalism and fairness in this field.

Awareness and communication are also important, and the next stage for the PAG will be to produce a layperson’s guide for the benefit of divorcing couples. This is planned for April 2020.

How to compare different types of pensions with other income and assets is a fundamental question for PAG, but one that is thankfully being addressed more widely for other purposes. No doubt this is an area that will move quickly – and pensions on divorce will need to change with it.

professional body could create obstacles to competent PODEs practising. There are not a large number of PODEs, and it is in the public interest for divorcing couples to have access to advice from any competent practitioner.

The list of competencies is not short.

Some, such as an awareness of APS X3, are easy to meet and would be necessary for IFoA members anyway. Others, particularly breadth of pensions knowledge and divorce procedure, are more onerous. Anyone considering advising in this area would need to be mindful of the competences, but equally, there is benefit to the public from an active and competitive market in PODE advice and it wouldn’t be appropriate to create obstacles for competent practitioners. I encourage actuaries entering the field to use Appendix D of the report to consider whether there are additional skills they might need, and how they might acquire them.

The example of Marge and Homer is a simple one. In practice, issues are more likely to arise through the existence of multiple pensions and the choice of a consistent method to make comparisons between them. Actuarial assumptions are required, as is an allowance for features of the benefits that may not be captured by the CE, such as service-related entitlements to unreduced pension at an earlier age.

The PAG report provides a steer for a consistent approach. This should reduce the risk of ‘expert shopping’ – the choice of an expert whose methodology is expected to be favourable.

The thorniest problem is offsetting.

Implicit or explicit offsetting is much more common than pension sharing. The same issues of comparison arise, except here the comparison is not against a dissimilar pension but different assets entirely, usually a home.

Two further difficulties in offsetting are tax and utility. Tax differences might sometimes be put to one side if comparing a pension against a pension, but certainly not if comparing the capital value of a pension against the value of a house.

All else being equal, we prefer money in our pocket to money that may be inaccessible for many years – ‘utility’ attempts to make an allowance for that as a reduction to the value of the pension.

This is a subjective judgment, and contingent on the circumstances of each case.

DR IAN SHARPE The PAG report FIA gives a steer on each is an associate of these points – professor at valuation, tax Heriot Watt and (15%-30%) and participated in the utility (0%-25%) – Pensions Advisory but states that utility Group (PAG) is not a matter on which the PODE should be expected to comment.

The report sets out the rationale for those ranges. www.theactuary.com

25/11/2019 15:25

Features Modelling

VFA: HOW DO YOUR

CONTRACTS MEASURE UP? Steven Morrison explores the use of stochastic scenarios for assessing whether insurance contracts meet eligibility criteria for the variable fee approach under IFRS 17

I

FRS 17 provides a specific measurement model for insurance contracts with direct participation features, known as the variable fee approach (VFA).

This refers to the fact that such contracts are characterised by a variable fee that the entity charges in exchange for investment-related services. The variable fee is treated differently under the VFA than under the general measurement model, resulting in different attribution between insurance service and finance results, profit timing and volatility. Understanding whether existing contracts meet the eligibility criteria for the VFA is therefore of great importance to companies implementing IFRS 17.

As with many other decisions in the standard, the criteria for VFA eligibility leaves room for interpretation by individual entities.

What are the key criteria, and how could they be assessed using stochastic scenarios?

Scenario-based modelling IFRS 17 Paragraph B101 provides a definition of insurance contracts with direct participation features: a. The contractual terms specify that the policyholder participates in a share of a clearly identified pool of underlying items b. The entity expects to pay the policyholder an amount equal to a substantial share of the fair value returns on the underlying items and c. The entity expects a substantial proportion of any changes in the amount to be paid to the policyholder to vary with the change in fair value of the underlying items.

Paragraph 107 provides further guidance as to the interpretation of the characteristics set out in Paragraph 101(b) and 101(c): An entity shall assess the variability in the amounts in paragraphs B101(b) and B101(c): i. Over the duration of the group of insurance contracts; and ii. On a present value probability-weighted average basis, not a best or worst outcome basis. Paragraph B108 goes on to discuss the outcomes that might arise for products containing guarantees in the particular scenario.

Paragraphs B107(ii) and B108 acknowledge that different scenarios can have different outcomes in terms of the returns on underlying items and the policyholders’ share in these returns, and that assessment of the criteria set out in Paragraphs 101(b) and 101(c) should allow for this. How can stochastic scenarios be used to quantify policyholder share and variability?

The use of stochastic scenarios might appear daunting in terms of operational and computational effort. However, although they STEVEN are not prescribed in the standard, stochastic MORRISON modelling techniques are expected to be widely is senior director – used in the calculation of fulfilment cash flows research at Moody’s for contracts with participation features, which makes the effort of using stochastic scenarios to assess VFA eligibility more manageable.

Description of example contract The illustrative contract group considered here consists of 100 contracts, with a 10-year DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 21

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Features Modelling

coverage period and a single premium of CU 150 per policy received at issuance. The contract provides the following benefits: Death (during the coverage period): the account balance with a guaranteed minimum benefit. We assume one policyholder dies each year.

Survival (until the end of the coverage period): the account balance with a guaranteed minimum maturity benefit.

At inception, the account balance equals premiums paid. It subsequently evolves annually based on returns, subject to an annual charge to reflect investment services provided as a fixed percentage of the account balance at the end of the year (prior to paying any benefits).

This contract satisfies the requirement that the policyholder participates in a clearly identified pool of items (the account balance).

The relevant question is whether the level and variability of this participation meets the requirements set out in Paragraphs 101(b) and 101(c).

Eligibility metrics To assess the criteria in 101(b) and 101(c), we must define metrics that quantify the policyholders’ share of the fair value returns on the underlying items and its variability.

One of the challenges with interpreting Paragraph 101(b) is that it refers to the policyholders’ share of the fair value returns. However, for many contracts, including the one considered here, the payments to both policyholders and the entity are expressed in terms of the current value of the underlying items, rather than fair value returns.

Each year, payments are made to the policy holder and the entity, while part of the returns achieved are retained to be paid in future years:

Т

t=1

t=0

t=1

EntityFlow(t) + CashAccount(t)

t=1

=

∑ EntityFlow(t ) + ∑ PolicyholderCashFlow(t) = ∑ FairValueReturn(t)

Т

∑ t=0

PolicyholderCashFlow(t) CashAccount(t)

∑ FairValueReturn(t) – ∑( CashRate(t – 1) X CashAccount(t) 1+ CashRate(t) Т

Т

t=1

t=1

AccountBalance(t – 1) CashAccount(t – 1)

)

So the sum of discounted fair value returns can’t be fully attributed to the policyholder and the entity, unless CashRate(t-1) = 0 at all times. Here we choose to use metrics based on undiscounted values.

Paragraph 101(c) further requires measuring to what extent changes in the amount to be paid to the policyholder varies with the change in fair value of the underlying items. For the contract considered here, the presence of guaranteed benefits means the total cash flow paid to policyholders is bounded below by some positive amount. In such scenarios, the policyholders’ cash flow can be considered fixed and independent of the return on underlying items. In all other scenarios the cash flows vary with the returns on underlying items.

Therefore, a measure of variability is the probability that the sum of policyholders’ cash flows exceeds the minimum:

[∑ Т

t=0

The account balance is initially equal to the premium and completely distributed at maturity of the contract. Over the life of the contract, the sum of fair value returns breaks down into two terms: the sum of cash flows to the entity and sum of cash flows to policyholders: Т

Т

∑

Equation 3: Variability = Prob

Equation 1: EntityCashFlow(t) + PolicyholderCashFlow(t) = FairValueReturn(t) + AccountBalance(t–1) – AccountBalance(t)

Т

The use of probability-weighted averages would appear to at least partly satisfy the requirement in Paragraph 107(b)(ii).

Paragraph 107(b)(ii) refers to a present value probability-weighted average basis, while the metric proposed in Equation 2 is based on undiscounted values. The problem with taking present values is that, as noted above, each year the fair value return does not naturally decompose into payments to the policyholder and the entity. If we discount Equation 1 using a cash account, before summing during the coverage period, we find:

(∑

)]

Т

PolicyholderCashFlow(t) > Min

PolicyholderCashFlow(t)

t=0

VFA eligibility assessment of example contract Here, we estimate the two VFA eligibility metrics for the example contract group above under different variations of the contract features. Metrics are estimated using 1,000 stochastic scenarios for the return on underlying items.

Different scenarios will result in different outcomes in terms of the returns on underlying items and the cash flows to policyholders.

Taking the expectation (E) overall economic scenarios gives:

Contract 1: Guarantee death benefit = 170; Guaranteed maturity benefit = 0; Charges = 0.5% p.a.

[∑ EntityFlow(t)]+E[∑ PolicyholderCashFlow(t)] =E[∑ FairValueReturn(t)]

First, we consider a contract that has a minimum death benefit of CU 170 but no guarantee at maturity. With relatively small guaranteed benefits, the contract is profitable with a modest annual charge (0.5% p.a.). Figure 1 shows the sum of all cash flows to policyholders plotted against the sum of all fair value returns on underlying items, in all 1,000 stochastic scenarios. The dashed lines show averages of the sum of cash flows to policyholders (numerator in Equation 2) and the sum of fair value returns (denominator in Equation 2), with the solid brown line indicating y=x. The closeness of the intersection of the dashed lines to the solid line indicates the level of the policyholders’ share.

Т

Т

Т

t=1

t=0

t=1

E

So one possible measure of the policyholders’ share of fair value returns on the underlying items is: E Equation 2: Policyholders‘ share =

[∑ [∑

Т t=0

E

]

PolicyholderCashFlow(t) Т t=1

]

FairValueReturn(t)

This metric measures the share over the duration of the contact group, so appears to satisfy the requirement in Paragraph 107(b)(i).

22 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

21-23 IFRS_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 22

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Features Modelling

Figure 1 Sum of policyholder cash flows vs sum of fair value returns (Contract 1) 60,000 Y=X

50,000

40,000

Figure 2 Sum of policyholder cash flows vs sum of fair value returns (Contract 2) 30,000 60,000

20,000 AVERAGE SUM OF POLICYHOLDERS’ CASH FLOWS

10,000

-10,000

-10,000

Y=X

AVERAGE SUM OF FAIR VALUE RETURNS

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

SUM OF FAIR VALUE RETURNS

In this example, the average sum of policyholders’ cash flow is estimated as CU 7,464, compared to an average sum of investment returns of CU 8,172. The policyholders’ share is therefore 91%.

The minimum sum of policyholders’ cash flows, estimated over all 1,000 scenarios, is CU -10,682. This value is measured in just one scenario (ie the sum of policyholder cash flows in 999 scenarios is strictly greater than this), so the variability metric (Equation 3) is estimated as 99.9%.

The high variability in this case is due to the fact that guarantees are only provided on death. With only one death per year, a significant component of the total policyholders’ cash flow is the maturity benefit, which is equal to the outstanding account balance with no minimum guarantee. The theoretical minimum sum of policyholders’ cash flows (CU -13,300) is never achieved as it would require the account balance to have been completely wiped out by year 10.

Contract 2: Guaranteed death benefit = 170; Guaranteed maturity benefit = 150; Charges = 4% p.a.

CONCLUSIONS

We have described the use of stochastic scenarios to assess whether an insurance contract qualifies as a contract with direct participation features, according to criteria set out in IFRS 17. We have also defined metrics that can be used to quantify the degree of participation as a

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share of the returns on underlying items (the policyholders’ share) and the extent to which variation in underlying items results in variation in policyholder cash flows (the variability).

The metrics presented here, and alternative ones, are sensitive to assumptions

SUM OF POLICYHOLDERS’ CASH FLOWS

SUM OF POLICYHOLDERS’ CASH FLOWS

AVERAGE SUM OF FAIR VALUE RETURNS

We now consider a contract with minimum maturity benefit of CU 150 and a guaranteed death benefit of CU 170. A significantly larger annual charge is assumed (4% p.a.) to cover the additional cost of providing the maturity guarantee.

Figure 2 shows the sum of all cash flows to policyholders plotted against the sum of all fair value returns on underlying items in all 1,000 stochastic scenarios.

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

AVERAGE SUM OF POLICYHOLDERS’ CASH FLOWS

10,000

-10,000

-10,000

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

SUM OF FAIR VALUE RETURNS

In this example, the average sum of policyholders’ cash flow is estimated as CU 3,488, compared to an average sum of investment returns of CU 6,863. The policyholders’ share is thus estimated as 51%.

The minimum sum of policyholders’ cash flows, estimated over all 1,000 scenarios, is CU 200. This is the theoretical minimum amount corresponding to all 10 death guarantees biting, as well as the maturity guarantee. This minimum sum of cash flows is measured in 329 of the 1,000 stochastic scenarios used, resulting in a variability metric of 67%.

embedded in the scenarios used to calculate them, in particular the assumed growth rates on underlying items. Different entities may conclude that similar contracts have different degrees of policyholder share and variability simply because they have used different metrics and assumptions.

Another item of potential controversy is whether the resulting numbers are ‘substantial’, as required by paragraph 101. Although it is a judgment of individual entities, consensus as to appropriate thresholds might emerge as insurers approach the IFRS 17 implementation date.

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Features Health

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Features Health

The best medicine?

ILLUSTRATIONS: SHUTTERSTOCK / SARAH AULD / FREEPIK.COM/MACROVECTOR

Matthew Edwards describes the methodology of the IFoA’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party’s research, and shares its findings “One sometimes finds what one is not looking for,” said Sir Alexander Fleming, the discoverer of penicillin, referring to his detection of this first major antibiotic while engaged in research on bacterial behaviour.

The serendipity was extraordinary – the discovery only occurred thanks to a bizarre combination of circumstances, including the research engaged in by the laboratory downstairs, Fleming absent-mindedly leaving a petri dish outside the incubator, its non-disturbance while he went on holiday, and a sequence of unusually cool days followed by warm ones. This is why penicillin had to be ‘rediscovered’ 10 years later by Harold Florey and Ernst Chain in Oxford.

Since that discovery, followed by the development of mass production techniques and the identification of many other antibiotics, we have come to take for granted that all infections can be successfully treated if diagnosed in time. By contrast, up until the

1950s, infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, pneumonia and sepsis were the primary causes of death among the middle aged in the UK. However, during the past 25 or so years, this rosy outlook has darkened: bacteria have developed increasingly strong resistance to antibiotics, and the pharmaceutical industry has not produced any major new ones.

Because of actuaries’ concerns about the possible morbidity and mortality impacts of antibiotic resistance (ABR), and the lack of any widely available modelling framework, a working party was set up under the Health and Care Board with the aim of developing a simple modelling framework to help actuaries better quantify plausible ABR impacts. Our findings were presented in a Sessional Paper presentation in Edinburgh on 25 February 2019, and the full paper and associated models were published on the IFoA website over the summer.

Modelling approach We agreed at an early stage to construct a model that met the following criteria: Simplicity – the model should have the right level of complexity to produce a reasonable answer, but not be so complex as to require detailed specialist knowledge Data availability – the parameters required in the model should correspond to data availability (so avoiding a later requirement to calibrate parameters for which there is insufficient data) Timeliness – the model should run quickly.

We decided to develop a relatively simple, time-homogeneous, multi-state Markov model (Figure 1, overleaf) with the four states of Healthy, Susceptible (the person has an infection that can be treated by antibiotics), Resistant (the person has an infection that is resistant to common antibiotics), and Dead.

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FIGURE 1 The model used by the Antibiotic Resistance Working Party

The primary reasons for choosing to concentrate on E. coli were better availability of data, and also the recent statistics showing it to be one of the worst ‘offenders’ with a worsening trend (Figure 2).

The parameterisation was done using UK data, mainly from Public Health England, and supported by data from the European AntiMicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network produced by the European Centre for Disease Control.

We also used research papers for various aspects, for instance the key parameter in the model of relative mortality between resistant and non-resistant infections.

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HEALTHY (H)

SICK WITH AN INFECTION SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANTIBIOTICS (S)

SICK WITH AN INFECTION RESISTANT TO ANTIBIOTICS (R)

DEAD (D) FIGURE 2 Proportion of isolates with bacteria resistant to the specified antibiotic in Section 4.4 for males in the UK 60% MALE RESISTANT ISOLATES BY PROPORTION

The model was parameterised with regard to Escherichia coli (E. coli), a relatively common bacterium that can cause intestinal infections leading to diarrhoea, abdominal pain and fever. More severe cases can lead to bloody diarrhoea, dehydration and kidney failure. Our model was based on third-generation cephalosporinresistant E. coli. The model provides the flexibility and data sources to allow for four other bacteria of particular concern to be modelled: Acinetobacter baumannii can cause a variety of diseases, ranging from pneumonia to serious blood or wound infections Staphylococcus aureus methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is particularly difficult to treat Pseudomonas aeruginosa Streptococcus pneumoniae

Escherichia coli Pseudomonas aeruginosa Staphylococcus aureus Streptococcus pneumoniae

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2019

TABLE 1 Two scenarios considered by the Antibiotic Resistance Working Party

SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

ANNUAL INCREASE (qx) BY 2050

CUMULATIVE INCREASE IN qx TO 2050

4

Current resistance rates double by 2050, no change in current infection rate profile

+0.005%

+0.115% to +0.160%

6

Resistance of 100% reached by 2050, current infection rate doubled

+0.055% to +0.078%

+2.075% to +2.756%

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Results Our work found that in a developed country, such as the UK, the impact of ABR is likely to be very minor.

Even in the extreme scenarios considered, ABR deaths would be almost negligible compared with major causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. The low impact of ABR in the UK would primarily be due to the well-developed health infrastructure, in particular vaccination programmes and good general public hygiene and sanitation. Conversely, in less developed countries where infectious disease is already a major cause of death, ABR would pose a much greater challenge.

Our central scenario assumed that resistance increases in a linear manner, with no change to the infection rate. This leads to an increase in mortality in the 45-64 age range of 0.01% (multiplicative, not additive) in 20 years, with a cumulative increase during the 20-year period of 0.2%.

Table 1 highlights two of the more extreme scenarios considered in the results section (where the ranges relate to variation of results by age band).

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“Even in extreme scenarios, ABR deaths in the UK would be almost negligible compared with causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cancer” The impact on infant mortality was much higher than the impact on other age bands.

Although the individual scenario parameter choices were very subjective, the variety of scenarios considered should provide a generally useful range of plausible results.

We also compared the increased ABR mortality from the model projections against several relevant comparators – in particular, AIDS/HIV-related deaths, deaths relating to adverse drug reactions (ADR), and the UK’s ‘extra deaths’ of 2015.

In brief: ABR deaths under many of the scenarios would be of similar order of magnitude to the number of AIDS/HIV deaths in the decade 2000-09 ADR deaths outweigh ABR deaths in most scenarios by a factor of five to 10 (in other words, the ‘normal’ application of drugs in the health system is more deadly than apparently deadly bacteria) The UK’s 30,000 ‘extra deaths’ of 2015 (that is, deaths greatly in excess of projected figures) dwarf projected extreme ABR deaths by a factor of 50-100.

In addition to the above modelling on direct infectious disease mortality

MATTHEW EDWARDS is chair of the IFoA’s Antibiotic Resistance Working Party and a director of Willis Towers Watson.

impacts, we also considered (more approximately) possible impacts of ABR on preventative use of antibiotics, for example as part of cardiovascular surgery. This research indicated that several thousand extra deaths might be expected in the UK under high ABR scenarios in around 20 years.

The 2016 O’Neill Review on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) concluded that the worldwide impact of AMR could be significant by 2050 if action were not taken, with additional deaths across Europe attributable to AMR estimated to be 390,000 by 2050. Our model, even in an extreme scenario, suggests that the relative impact in the UK would be of an order of magnitude less than this.

From a life insurer’s perspective, even reinsurance actuaries worried about the risk to their in-force term books can feel generally comfortable, given a typical policy duration of five to 10 years, allowing for lapses.

The situation in less developed countries, though, is much less sanguine – where infectious diseases are currently a major killer, the problem of ABR is clearly going to be far more material than it seems likely to become in the UK. The Antibiotic Resistance Working Party’s report and associated models are available at bit.ly/2NH0Z77 The Working Party also consisted of Nicola Oliver (deputy chair), Ross Hamilton, Sheridan Fitzgibbon, Roshane Samarasekera, Irene Merk and Soumi Sarkar.

We would also like to thank Craig Armstrong and Kez Baskerville-Muscat for their contributions.

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COUNTING UP TO GREEN Ben Carr looks at the impact of climaterelated risks on financial firms, and how their approaches are likely to evolve

T

he Paris Agreement came into force on 4 November 2016 and has been ratified by 185 countries to date. It aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping global temperature rises well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The Financial Stability Board’s Taskforce on Climaterelated Financial Disclosures, chaired by Michael Bloomberg, published its recommendations on 29 June 2017. These voluntary disclosures cover how companies assess climate-related risks and opportunities in their governance, strategy and risk management, as well as the metrics and targets they use. The recommendations aim to make markets more efficient and economies more stable and resilient.

Regulators are increasingly scrutinising how financial firms are taking these risks into account. The Prudential Regulation Authority recently issued a Supervisory Statement, Enhancing banks’ and insurers’ approaches to managing the financial risks from climate change, and the Network for Greening the Financial System has published its first comprehensive report: A call for action – climate change as a source of financial risk. Despite this, many financial organisations are still failing to actively consider these risks.

Several initiatives have been kicked off by regulators, international agencies and industry associations to help firms get started. For example, the UN Environment Programme FIGURE 1 Risks and opportunities covered

TRANSITION RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

PHYSICAL RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) investor pilot project recently published its Changing Course report. In this, it presented a climate value at risk (climate VaR) measure developed with environmental fintech company Carbon Delta. Climate VaR provides a holistic, forward-looking view of the impact of climate-related transition and physical risks and opportunities on investors’ equity and corporate bond portfolios during the next 15 years.

Transition risks and opportunities include projected costs of policy action related to limiting greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), as well as projected profits from green revenues arising from the development of new technologies and patents. The baseline for assessing the transition risk impact is that companies keep emitting GHGs at current levels.

Physical risks cover the financial impact of climate change through extreme weather, rising sea levels and mean temperatures.

For physical risk, the baseline is that current climate trends persist.

The VaR measure allows for four potential future scenarios with respect to climate change, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each describes a potential trajectory for future GHG and other air pollutant levels. They can be mapped to potential temperature rises – 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C – and the levels of mitigation required for each.

The four scenarios assume a gradual path in which temperatures rise slowly but climate policy is ramped up at varying speeds, with a fairly high degree of global coordination. They do not consider transition risk in a chaotic policy environment where there is lack of global coordination and where policy action is late and sudden. As a consequence, they may understate climate-related risks.

Unprecedented change POLICY 15 years projected costs

TECHNOLOGY 15 years projected green revenues / profits

ACUTE PHYSICAL 15 years projected +/- financial impact

✓ 1.5˚C – Scenario ✓ 2˚C – Scenario ✓ 3˚C – Scenario / NDC

✓ 1.5˚C – Scenario ✓ 2˚C – Scenario ✓ 3˚C – Scenario / NDC

Extreme weather ✓ Extreme heat and cold ✓ Precipitation and snowfall ✓ Wind gusts ✓ Tropical cyclones

Source: Carbon Delta.

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CHRONIC PHYSICAL 15 years projected +/- financial impact Climate trends ✓ Coastal flooding ✓ Fluvial flooding ✓ Wildfires

The IPCC Global warming of 1.5°C report, published in October 2018, demonstrates that dramatic action needs to be taken now if warming is to be kept below 1.5°C, and discusses the consequences of failing to achieve this. The scale of change needed to meet the 1.5°C target is unprecedented; industry will have to slash CO2 by 65%-90% www.theactuary.com

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The aggressive mitigation 1.5°C scenario is the only scenario with potential upsides.

Physical risk impacts are more limited but there is still downside risk on long-term investment returns from carbon intensive sectors (such as utilities) as a result of transition policy actions. This is offset partially by revenues on new technologies from some sectors (such as motor vehicles).

Aggregated together to estimate the overall impact of climate-related risks and opportunities across all scenarios, the plausible range is dominated by the results of the 3°C and 4°C scenarios, reflecting that neither existing or planned policy actions are sufficiently ambitious to meet the Paris Agreement goal.

The 1.5°C scenario is dominated by transition risk, even after applying mitigating measures. In the 2°C scenario, transition and physical risks are more evenly balanced, whereas in the 3°C and 4°C scenarios physical risk dominates.

Impact on liabilities Source: TCFD.

FIGURE 2 The choice we face now

“The scale of change needed to meet the 1.5°C target is unprecedented; industry will have to slash CO2 by 65%90% by 2050”

by 2050. Investments in low-carbon and energy efficiency will need to increase fivefold by 2050 versus 2015 levels. Buildings and transport will also need to shift heavily towards green electricity, and tools that remove CO2 emissions from the atmosphere, such as carbon capture and storage, will be needed to store 100-1,000 gigatons of CO2 over the course of the century.

In the IPCC’s 4°C scenario – in which emissions continue to rise at current rates – the transition risk is more limited, the potential physical risks are significant and the likelihood of tipping points being reached is much higher. In particular, increased precipitation, coastal and river flooding, periods of extreme heat and cold, wildfires and droughts can be expected.

In addition, sea levels could rise significantly, resulting in major displacement of populations – as well as the spread of tropical diseases to more temperate areas.

Finally – and particularly in more extreme warming scenarios – it is important to consider whether climate change may trigger changes in social attitudes, leading to litigation against companies for failing to reduce emissions or disclose climate risks transparently.

Along with 19 other institutional investors from 11 countries, Aviva participated in the UNEP FI Investor pilot and has extended the climate VaR approach to the entire balance sheet. The analysis compares a plausible range of outcomes (5th to 95th percentile) from the different scenarios considered. The results show that exposure is greatest in relation to the business-as-usual 4°C scenario where physical risk dominates, negatively impacting long-term investment returns on equities, corporate bonds, real estate, real estate loans and sovereign exposures. www.theactuary.com

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In all scenarios, the impact on insurance liabilities is more limited than on investment returns. However, changes in mortality rates in different scenarios could impact life and pensions businesses. These could arise either from physical effects, such as more extreme hot and cold days, or from transition effects related to changes in pollution levels. The impact on general insurance liabilities is relatively limited because of the short-term nature of the business, the ability to re-price annually and mitigation provided by our reinsurance programme. However, the physical effects of climate change will result in more risks and perils becoming either uninsurable or unaffordable over the longer term.

The development of tools such as climate VaR is just the beginning of our BEN CARR is journey to increase analytics and capital understanding of the modelling director impact of climateat Aviva. related risks and opportunities; approaches will undoubtably evolve and improve as new research and data becomes available.

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Features Technology

Yaffa Cohen-Ifrah explores how cyber insurance challenges can be overcome

A

s rapid digitisation and data collection comes to define the modern economy, the issue of cybersecurity has come to the fore, with a new breed of innovative software companies marketing their security solutions to enterprises, small and medium businesses and ordinary citizens keen on protecting their assets.

However, the cybersecurity industry took root in a very different world to the one we live in now. The magnitude of our cyber vulnerabilities has soared in tandem with the sheer volume of data and assets that now exist in cyberspace. This has given rise to an entirely new market – one designed to better gauge risks and utilise cyber best practices.

Despite the preparation, organisations must be ready for doomsday scenarios. By next year, the global cyber insurance market will reach up to $9bn, compared to less than $4bn in in 2017, according to projections from Munich Re. The market’s exponential growth underscores the surging demand for solutions that not only help spur stronger cyber protection, but also minimise the impact of attacks. The market’s maturation, and strengthening of clients’ cyber readiness, will require insurers to address early challenges that make modelling risk more difficult than in other insurance verticals.

Fortunately, these challenges are far from insurmountable.

Growth of cyber insurance The 2013 Target data breach offers a case study on how cyber insurance can significantly limit the damage done to a business’s bottom line. While the retail giant reported $61m in costs stemming from the breach, the company’s insurance policy covered $44m of those losses – a loss reduction of 72%. The hefty payout highlighted the benefits of cyber coverage for clients. However, as more businesses purchase coverage, how can insurers formulate cyber policies that reflect the unique risks and vulnerabilities faced by each potential client?

A look at the trajectory of cyber insurance premiums shows the volatility of risk pricing. Cyber premiums are increasing three times faster than general property and casualty insurance premiums. On the one hand, this is hardly surprising given the mounting vulnerabilities of the digital age. There’s another major factor driving high premiums, though: insufficient and inadequate data.

The relative dearth of historical data, and the difficulty of assessing clients’ true cyber vulnerability – in part because 30 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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organisations aren’t always legally obligated to disclose cyber incidents if they don’t affect YAFFA consumers – can make pricing cyber risk feel COHEN-IFRAH like guesswork. But it doesn’t have to be. is CMO and head Insurers should start by leveraging of corporate accumulated data, which can provide communications illuminating insights into the scope and at Sapiens variety of threats. In 2017, Symantec revealed that there were a staggering 357m malware variants based on an examination of 225m devices across 157 countries. Using such accumulated data, insurers can better understand cyber risk and then model the impacts of different attack scenarios.

Additionally, rather than relying on clients to self-report information via lengthy questionnaires, insurers can gain better visibility into organisations’ risk exposure by working alongside clients to conduct comprehensive inventories of their networks and digital assets – recommending products and processes for mitigating risk, and developing action plans to guide the client’s response in the event of a breach. What holds true of cybersecurity generally also applies to cyber insurance: true protection for insurers is only possible with maximum visibility and continuous monitoring of threat.

Amid digital transformation and breakneck innovation, today’s companies are looking for one thing above all when it comes to cybersecurity: assurance that their IT infrastructures are well-fortified and that their organisations have plans in place to contain the fallout, should bad actors strike. While each organisation must remain vigilant in the face of cyber threats, cyber insurers can bring unparalleled technical expertise and risk analysis to bear, ensuring that clients aren’t flying blind in the often-stormy skies of cyberspace.

Ultimately, the cyber insurance market’s legitimacy will be established by concrete results – not only in terms of attacks prevented, but also in payouts that reduce businesses’ net losses following a breach. Crucially, because cyber insurers have a vested interest in keeping cyber incidents to a minimum, they will be key drivers of organisational change and improved cyber practices.

Harmonising financial incentives with clients’ security will be a true win-win.

ILLUSTRATION: IKONIMAGES

Breaching digital risks

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Features Regulation

Liboring the issue Simon Richards and members of the Working Party for Libor Reform look at the impact of Libor on actuaries and summarise their findings

Pensions and insurance In general, pension funds followed the initial advice given by the Bank of England and FCA’s Working Group on Sterling Risk-Free Reference Rates: Understand exposure and risks Actively reduce reliance on Libor Engage with transition efforts.

Pension funds typically have direct exposure to Libor via interest rate swaps held on a segregated basis. Although most will likely move to trading new SONIA-based interest rate swaps (or gilts), and many may move some or all of their existing back books, there will still be a legacy of Libor swaps. Pension funds need to stay on top of the issue – using governance wisely, asking investment managers for updates and monitoring the transitioning of benchmarks away from Libor.

In response to a ‘Dear CEO’ letter issued by the PRA and FCA in September 2018, which asked insurers to provide details of their risk mitigation plans in this area, insurers’ approaches for dealing with Libor reform have been elevated. The risk now is that the transition www.theactuary.com

31 Libor_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 31

may be treated as enterprise-wide, rather than as a series of localised projects led by different departments.

The most significant exposure arises from the valuation of the liabilities, as the regulatory (Solvency II) discount rate is currently linked to Libor. Unfortunately, there is still little direction on the substance or timing of communication of the future risk-free basis.

Nevertheless, insurers are focused on the balance sheet impact of the change, with concern that a move to a (lower) SONIA-based discount rate could result in a jump in the value of the liabilities.

Many insurers have exposure to Libor within asset portfolios from interest rate swaps. However, the transition away from Libor contracts here is hampered by uncertainty around the future risk-free basis. As a result, insurers have been more measured in their approaches, for example by limiting new trades to non-Libor contracts. They are also focused on the ISDA consultation on the setting of fall-backs, as some might consider the option of retaining Libor-based swaps to support ‘back-books’.

Insurers have multiple models, tools and reporting systems based on Libor rates or Libor yield curves. Wider implications include renegotiating reinsurance collateral arrangements. Other investment products with return or income pegged to Libor include money market instruments, floating rate notes and securitised instruments. In theory, the Libor reference could be translated into an adjusted THE WORKING SONIA rate. A broad move to SONIAPARTY FOR LIBOR referenced asset products presents challenges, REFORM is such as consistency between the approach comprised of: Simon used for the relevant asset and that used for Richards (chair), any derivatives used to hedge the floating rate. Hetal Patel (deputy In September, Lloyds became the first chair), Jon Neale, commercial bank to issue a SONIA-linked Robert Pace, bond, following the European Investment Cyprian Njamma, Bank’s issue of a five-year bond linked to the Nicol Strachan, reformed SONIA benchmark. Momentum is Emma McCallum, gathering, but there is a lot of work to be done Peter Lin, Ross before the loan market is ready for LIBOR Fleming, Mahesh withdrawal – and widespread nervousness Bora, Udit Kapoor in the corporate world. and Ronan Liston.

ILLUSTRATION: IKONIMAGES

I

n 2017, the FCA suggested that Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) be discontinued beyond 2021 and encouraged market participants to plan for new reference rates. The IFoA’s Working Party for Libor Reform was established in April 2018 to investigate the key issues, assess potential impact on actuaries’ practice areas, and increase awareness.

Fall-back rates are the relevant risk-free rates that would be adopted if the relevant IBOR rate was no longer available. The outcome of the International Swaps and Dealers Association’s (ISDA) consultation on fall-back rates resulted in support for the ‘compounded setting in arrears’ rate as the methodology for floating leg interest fixing, with the adjustment being calculated under a historical average approach. The latest consultation closed at the end of October and explored two options for the spread adjustment: median approach with five-year lookback and trimmed mean with 10-year lookback. The ISDA consultations have covered Libor in British pounds (GBP), US dollars, Euros, Swiss francs and Japanese yen, among others. This consultation concerned the ongoing requirement for term risk-free rates (interest rates for any period beyond overnight) in the GBP market given that the new reference rate, SONIA, is an overnight rate, whereas financial products in the UK typically reference three-month or six-month rates. Term SONIA Reference Rates would seek to represent the market’s expectation of the average value of SONIA over a specified tenor.

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T

he Cashless Society Working Party is approaching its third anniversary.

Little did it know, at the time of its inception, how relevant and divisive the concept of the cashless society would become for both developed and developing regions. Its initial effort to deliver an interim sessional paper in January 2018, positioned as a neutral contribution for the public interest, resonated widely. This work paved the way for multiple contributions to public inquiries and debates on the future of money, concentrating on global developments and specialised topics.

There has been an acceptance that the digital revolution will involve a shift towards a society with less cash. This will require active transition management from governments, engaging with all stakeholders in developed countries to avoid adverse effects – especially on people who are unbanked or unable to access the internet.

Addressing supply The independent Access to Cash Review (bit.ly/access2cashreport), published in March 2019, recommended a sustainable cash distribution model that would avoid the need to legislate to protect cash. It is hoped that lawmakers who took part in the Westminster debate ‘Financial exclusion and the future of access to cash’ (bit.ly/ parliamentbriefing0115) will adopt this approach.

The Working Party agrees that legislating to provide access to cash would not be sustainable, as the declining demand would result in a rising unit cost for supply. This will disproportionately hurt poorer and older members of society, who tend to rely on cash – the very people such legislation would try to protect. It is accepted that cash will remain necessary for the foreseeable future for a number of reasons that are explored by the review, as well as for strategic resilience purposes. However, its current economic model is unsustainable.

Addressing the cash supply will require a corresponding programme to improve digital financial inclusion for those who are currently disadvantaged. One of the key questions at the 2018 sessional was: “Why couldn’t the UK implement a simple system 32 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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ACCESS TO CASH:

A CHALLENGE Ian Collier and the Cashless Society Working party suggest the UK government look beyond protecting cash and instead ‘leapfrog’ the vulnerable into the digital economy like M-Pesa in Kenya or EcoCash in Zimbabwe, where basic, cheap 2G mobile devices allow payments using SMS transactions?” Two years on, the question remains. The UK mobile-to-mobile payment system Paym is a well-kept secret, and still requires a bank account.

Whether the benefits of a system such as M-Pesa can be reproduced in a country

where the unbanked are the minority remains to be seen. While a 2G mobile MPesa-like system would enable peer-topeer payments, it would not resolve the poverty premium. Smartphones and internet access are passports to financial inclusion, granting access to the best utility offers, financial management (including budgeting) and banking apps, job searches, www.theactuary.com

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Features Finance

communication, social networks and knowledge. M-Pesa itself is evolving with its smartphone app, enabling further e-commerce functionality in Africa, where smartphones are increasingly affordable.

IMAGE: IKON IMAGES

Financial inclusion In the UK, the unbanked are a minority market, so the solution to include them may have to come from the government in coordination with regulators, telephone companies, banks and fintech businesses.

This seems a salient point for developed countries, where low-income segments represent a minority share of the market – it might not be economically viable for commercial enterprises to provide the necessary resources, meaning they may not be relied upon to do so. Would UK market players be likely to drive solutions for the under-served? Even new banks rely on customers’ access to the internet.

While the context may be different, the UK could learn from advances in developing countries and from organisations with a wealth of knowledge, such as Vodafone (M-Pesa’s owner). Lawmakers singled out credit unions as potential partners in May’s Westminster debate. Credit unions have www.theactuary.com

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FIGURE 1: Adults with financial institution account, by income level (2017) PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS

IAN COLLIER is a retired actuary and chair of the Cashless Society Working Party.

He has just finished a five-year term on the IFoA’s Health and Care Research Committee.

much experience to share with the UK – in partnership with NGOs, they have played an active part in financial empowerment in Africa and Asia. Mobile money (the term given to payments on mobile devices) has been a revolution in Africa. Globally, 1.1 billion unbanked people have a mobile phone. The World Bank’s Global Findex suggests that most unbanked people would be open to using financial services if they were accessible, affordable, fair and useful.

The World Economic Forum concludes: “Fixing global poverty is hard. But one solution might be as simple as using a mobile phone [not necessarily a smartphone] to access financial services.”

The importance of engagement with stakeholders was a key lesson for Nigeria.

The country established an aggressive cashless policy in 2017, with a bank-driven programme. Following poor progress and popular backlash, the programme was cancelled. A new approach focusing on engagement with stakeholders, digital national ID and the introduction of Payment Service Bank licences in early 2019 is leading to new dynamics, with telephone companies entering the market and banks offering inclusive products. Most of the unbanked already had at least a basic mobile phone, while affordable smartphones are being introduced to equip others.

These developments have led to new knowledge in the field. Sudden access to ‘helicopter money’ must be managed carefully in order to avoid the teething problems observed in regions such as Kenya. The boom of fintech services has been supporting business growth through short-term unsecured loans. However, there is growing concern over loans being used to finance problem gambling.

Customers who currently have no access to bank accounts or electronic means of

100 Poorest 40% Richest 60%

90 80 70 60 50 G-20

ADVANCED

EMERGING

Sources: World Bank, FINDEX; IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2018; and IMF staff calculations.

payment may also find themselves vulnerable to aggressive commercial ploys.

Responsible behaviour needs to be nurtured in order to bring this new demographic safely into the formal economy. This will require a coordinated approach between the private sector, which must uphold its duty of care, and the public sector, which must develop and enhance financial literacy skills.

The other major lesson from developing regions is the value of digital identity to those without any formal documentation, such as identification or home address; this is usually a barrier to opening bank accounts. As banks prepare to launch biometric payment cards using fingerprints instead of PIN numbers for security, now may be the time to redefine documentation requirements and consider the benefits of national digital identification. While India’s Aadhaar programme still attracts criticism, its deployment of biometric ID to 1.2 billion Indian residents and a simultaneous financial inclusion programme have enabled 328 million Indian people to access formal banking infrastructure, doubling the share of account ownership in rural areas. The strategy has also enabled India to make direct cash transfers of $64bn to citizens since its inception, improving social protection.

Sponsorship and leadership Legislating to protect cash would be regressive. Technology solutions are ripe for the ecosystem to deliver value to many underserved customers. Digital ID could provide fast, low-cost identification and verification processes, and affordable smartphones with internet access would improve supply-side economics.

Digital ID would also be a requirement for introducing retail central bank digital currencies and keeping vulnerable groups away from scams. Open banking may present the best opportunity for previously excluded residents to build a customer profile, and associated credit risk assessment. This should, in turn, grant access to competitive financial providers to meet their needs.

Financial inclusion requires sponsorship and leadership: it may now be an appropriate time for it to be assigned to the Bank of England’s mandate and progress to be publicly reported on, as some other central banks do.

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 33

25/11/2019 15:29

At the back School of thought

Student Tricky times It’s vital that actuaries are alert to political risk, says George Burton – especially during volatile periods

ILLUSTRATION: SIMON SCARSBROOK

I

am the not-so-proud owner of ‘Brexit insurance’. If I’d mentioned this five years ago, you’d have been forgiven for responding blankly. Given the pace and tumult of the financial markets, I encourage you to consider the impact of politics on the economy. Power imbalances have often been at the centre of seismic market movements – but usually we have models to ‘predict’ these. The same is not generally true for political risk.

Gaining an insight into why political risk may have been undervalued in the market requires an appreciation of its scale and scope. Political risk is multifaceted and typically characterises events for which we have no experience. Government intervention can lead to expropriation of property, nationalisation of industries, regulation change and sovereign debt defaults. National secret services can cause civil unrest, insurrection, war and terrorism. Think about challenges faced by businesses planning for Brexit, importer-exporters caught in US-China trade wars, workers impacted by antigovernment demonstrators in Hong Kong or staff onboard the British oil tanker recently seized by Iran.

Decoding my ‘Brexit insurance’ reveals a classic insurable event – a desire to ensure I receive the same level of healthcare cover as is currently provided 34 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

34 student_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 34

by my European Health Insurance Card (EHIC), deal or no deal. My EHIC may not be valid if there’s a no-deal Brexit; my rights would depend on arrangements with individual countries and could result in me having to pay for treatment in full.

It’s worth remembering that these current rights are only possible due to the international cooperation of member states in the first place.

Political risk cannot simply be ‘insured away’. A number of Cathay Airlines staff were ‘fired by the long arm of China’ for involvement in the Hong Kong protests, and both HSBC and Standard Chartered were forced to break their silence on the protests and ask for a peaceful resolution; when pressed for further comment, HSBC stated: “We are not changing our apolitical stance.”

Taking a stance doesn’t make it any easier, as HSBC’s former CEO John Flint found out when he fell into hot water for his role in the US’s attempts to have the CFO of Huawei extradited. The Chinese telecoms giant had been accused of bank fraud and breaching sanctions against Iran, which led HSBC to openly admit it had provided information relating to the matter to the US Department of Justice.

Arguably, these examples themselves are less concerning than the tit-for-tat one-upmanship that predicates apprehension in financial markets.

Amid the increasing financialisaton and interconnectedness of economies, firms previously considered spectators are no longer immune. The social media age is providing greater scrutiny of firms’ affiliations, and consumers are demanding companies adopt positions on a wide range of issues, from modern slavery to climate change. Positive public relations are not enough when debate is framed largely by appeals to emotion that are disconnected from policy detail.

Navigating these precarious situations requires a level of geopolitical tact that many state diplomatic services can only dream of. Firms must actively embody a set of values in their environmental and social governance that balances all stakeholders – consumers and states, local and global.

I, too, laughed at the thought of buying a Brexit policy rider. And although the cost was insignificant, the fact that these ‘never occurred before’ events are being priced, and that I handed over £4, is significant.

To remain relevant, the insurance community must appreciate the serious political threats that businesses plan for.

Only a short while ago, the concept of the marketing actuary was in vogue. This role of converting societal needs into profitable opportunities will undoubtably see a renaissance, albeit perhaps under a different guise. With the world order increasingly defined by political rather than economic cycles, there is an opportunity here for insurers that can not only manage long-term risk, but also meet short-term pressing needs.

GEORGE BURTON is student editor. www.theactuary.com

25/11/2019 15:29

At the back Puzzles

Which one should come next in the sequence: A, B, C or D?

A

B

C

www.mensa.org.uk

D

Round and about Mensa puzzle 770

Animal magic Mensa puzzle 771

The top half and the bottom half are on interlocking rotating systems. When they move round they will realign so that four associated words are read downwards.

What are they?

Rearrange the letters to give three animal species.

What are they?

L I O R R I F L I S X Y A L S E www.theactuary.com

35 PUZZLES_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 35

Answers . 769: B. (One line goes 45 degrees anticlockwise & the other goes 90 degrees anticlockwise). 770: Rose, lily, flax and iris will be read when the top half is rotated three places anti-clockwise. 771: Buffalo, camel and kangaroo.

iQ

Turn teaser Mensa puzzle 769

OFF BALANCE OAK GLAMOUR DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 35

25/11/2019 15:29

At the back Society news

DATES FOR YOUR DIARY 17 DEC 2019, 5.30PM

Come all ye faithful The WCA Carol service this year will take place on 17 December, in St Bartholomew the Great Church in West Smithfield EC1A 7QJ. Carollers will be joining a number of other livery companies, and Christmas dinner will be available afterwards at the Butchers’ Hall (please pre-book for the dinner). The Butchers’ Hall has just re-opened after a refurbishment and is a short walk from the church. This is a great opportunity to meet in this historic church and celebrate Christmas.

The service will start at 6pm, but we are all asked to be in our (reserved) seats by 5.40pm. After that, seats are offered to the public. The Christmas dinner is £75 per head; attendance at the service only is free.

10 DEC 2019, 6.30PM

IMAGE: ISTOCK

A brush with bubbly SIAS has arranged a night of painting and Prosecco at the Arty Club, 129 Shirland Rd, London, W9 2EP. You will have the opportunity to paint a piece of pottery of your choice, from a bowl to something Christmas-themed or even animal shaped!

You will be sure to have fun and get the chance to meet new people. Your mission will be to finish painting in three hours and enjoy yourself. At the end of the night you will be able to take what you have painted home or collect it a week later after it has been fired and glazed. It could be ideal as a personal Christmas gift.

Bubbles will be in the form of limited Prosecco and fizzy juice on the night.

Refreshments will be provided. Tickets for members are £20 and non-members £22.

WCA

Sipping wine in Slovenia

BY KEITH JONES

In September, Worshipful Company of Actuaries Master Fiona Morrison organised an escorted wine tour of Slovenia for 40 actuaries and their partners, based in the capital city Ljubljana. We were expertly guided by Tim Syrad, who organises wine tours around the world – often with Fiona and friends in the group.

Once part of Yugoslavia, Slovenia was the first country to secure independence.

Ljubljana today is a vibrant cosmopolitan city, packed with bars and restaurants along the river running through it and overlooked by the historic castle atop the hill. Slovenia borders many countries, and during our trip we crossed into Austria and brushed against Italy; the background in the group photo is Croatia.

I’m sure that many of us recall ‘delicious’ Slovenian wine from our student days, but those days of communal production are long gone, replaced by today’s small independent model – 28,000 wineries producing 80m

litres per year. Sadly, we ‘only’ managed to visit six during our stay. The wine proved so good that some of us have imported our favourites. The country’s so-called ‘orange’ wine – not made from oranges, but left on the lees and made using natural methods – proved more divisive, with opinions mixed.

In fact, the trip proved to be both a wine tour and a gastronomic delight. Some of the tastings provided lunch with additional wine options, while our dinners included a multitude of delicious dishes, accompanied by further wine exploration.

Many guests arrived the day before or stayed the day after the tour to explore Ljubljana more fully, as with markets and more restaurants to be sampled, three days was just not long enough.

Overall it was an interesting, informative, often hilarious and always enjoyable trip to somewhere that is unlikely to be top of the holiday list for many, but is definitely deserving of a visit.

RUN WITH SIAS

Fancy a swanky SIAS water bottle and a £20 donation to your chosen charity?

Call for your news…

All you have to do is: 1. Take a selfie before or after your parkrun*; 2. Post it on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook or LinkedIn with #IrunwithSIAS 3. Send an email with your Twitter or Instagram name, link to your parkrun results, postal address and your chosen charity to charity@sias.org.uk

We would be delighted to hear from you if you have any newsworthy items for these pages. Please contact us at: social@theactuary.com

Note: You have to be a SIAS member.

For your first parkrun with SIAS, a SIAS water bottle will be sent out. For your second and third parkruns with SIAS, a £10 donation will be made each time to your chosen charity. You can fundraise a maximum of £20 with parkrun for your chosen charity. *You can also run a marathon, half marathon or any other race; all you have to do is post about it with #IrunwithSIAS and send us an email with your details.

36 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

36-37 people society_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 36

www.theactuary.com

25/11/2019 15:42

At the back Society news

WIN THE GAME

WCA

Christmas competition... feeling CONFIDENT?

Unlock ‘smart thinking’

You may remember from our article last December that actuaries Ceri Price and Natalie Podd have launched an actuarially-inspired party game, CONFIDENT? Since then, 2019 has been a busy year for them. After giving the game a new look, it is now stocked in John Lewis stores nationwide, and they’ve also released two new expansion packs online. To minimise their environmental impact, they’ve partnered with non-profit Trees for the Future to plant a tree for every game or expansion pack bought, and the games are now made from recycled materials or wood from sustainable forests.

The response Ceri and Natalie have received from the actuarial community has been incredible, and as a thank you, they’ve decided to launch an exclusive competition for The Actuary readers.

All you have to do is answer the question uest o below be ow with w t a range a ge and email it to: competition@ confidentgame.com by midnight on n 22 December. The person with the smallest mallest correct range will win CONFIDENT? T? and the two expansion packs!

In US $, how much will the new Star ar Wars film, The Rise of Skywalker, gross globally on its opening weekend?

The WCA’s annual Livery Lecture took place at Staple Inn Hall on Tuesday 24 September, delivered by Sarah Winckless MBE on the subject: ‘What does an inclusive City look like….. and what stops us getting there?’

Sarah Winckless was chef-de-mission of Team England at the Commonwealth Games in 2018 and is an Olympic medallist and a diversity and inclusion specialist. Her lecture looked at how we select diverse teams to build an inclusive environment, so that they can achieve high performance while fostering learning and innovation. She challenged the premise that diversity alone will drive innovation: we need to let go of being the ‘smartest person in the room’ and focus on unlocking the smartest thinking in ourselves and our teams.

The lecture drew interesting questions from the audience, which included nearly 40 livery company Masters. After the wh lecture, we were served a two-course supper and fine wine. lect D E AT H S Mr M Alan Bradley, based in the UK, gained fellowship in 1973, sadly passed away aged 76. pa Mr M John Robert Smart, based in Australia, gained fellowship in 1957, 19 sadly passed away aged 95.

Ms M Rebecca Cardew Martin, based in the UK, gained fellowship in 2003, sadly passed away aged 43.

OBITUARY

John Maitland Macharg A former president of the Faculty of Actuaries, John Maitland (‘Joe’) Macharg passed away after a short illness on 10 October, at the age of 91. Born in Glasgow in 1928, he graduated with a Masters in mathematics from Glasgow University; after national service in the Education Corps he joined Scottish Amicable as an actuarial student in 1951, qualifying in 1954. He moved to Scottish Provident in 1955, progressing quickly to become pensions secretary, actuary and finally general manager (CEO) in 1970, a position he held until his retirement in 1988.

At Scottish Provident, Joe was a modernising chief executive, leading its

www.theactuary.com

36-37 people society_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 37

diversification into innovative savings and pensions products and overseeing the move into a new purpose-built head office. His ‘City’ appearance (including bowler hat) belied a modern management style and business outlook.

Joe was a member of Faculty Council from 1964 to 1967 and again from 1977 to 1992, serving as president from 1985 to 1987.

He was also an active member of Groupe Consultatif and the International Actuarial Association.

A man of strong principles, he used his presidential address to advocate high ethical standards for the profession. In particular, he highlighted the serious risk to the profession’s reputation caused by actuaries

condoning the provision of unrealistic benefit projections for new business purposes, based on historic returns obtained during a period of high inflation.

He cared passionately about the actuarial profession and was generous in the support he gave to younger members. He was a loyal member of the Scottish Actuaries Club, attending his last dinner in his 90th year. He was equally at ease conversing with retired actuaries as with the recently-qualified.

Joe was a keen skier and met his wife Madeline – who sadly predeceased him in 2006 – while skiing in Champéry, Switzerland. They subsequently had many family holidays there, driving the 900-plus miles from Edinburgh. In retirement, he enjoyed travel, including visiting his grandchildren in Yorkshire and New Zealand.

He also continued to enjoy Munro bagging, trout fishing and golf at Murrayfield and Luffness. He is sadly missed by family, friends and former colleagues.

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 37

25/11/2019 15:30

At the back Actuary of the future

On the record How would your best friend describe you?

I’m not sure the initial responses were appropriate for this, but after those the responses were generally: sarcastic, easy-going and generous.

What motivates you?

Problem-solving. I don’t like starting something and not finishing it, regardless of how difficult it is.

maths. A risk that was definitely worth it.

How do you relax away from the office?

RUSSELL GREENSTREET Capita – Pensions analyst

If there was a movie produced about your life, who would play you, and why?

Michael Cera. I have been told I look a bit like him a few times.

Playing tennis and watching football. Other than that, I try and see my friends as much as possible.

What song best describes your work ethic?

One Step Beyond – Madness.

There is only one way to find out.

Name five dream companions to th? be stuck on a desert island with?

Sean Lock – I think he’s hilarious. Neil deGrasse Tyson for some insightful talks ks about the universe. Anthony Joshua – hee seems like he would be good company and nd keep spirits high. David Attenborough, I’m sure he’d have a wealth of knowledge about out life that I could learn from. Finally, my girlfriend, although I don’t think she would uld be too happy about being stuck on an island. and.

What’s your most ‘actuarial’ habit?

If you could go back in history, y, who would you like to meet?

Bob Marley. The influence he had on music usic is timeless.

If you could be anyone else, who would it be?

LeBron James. I would love to be able to o basketball. jump four feet high and dunk a basketba all.

W What is the funniest thing that h has happened to you recently?

Trying to project how much my savings and pension will be worth in the future.

Iw was at the races and put a bet on a horse, but the bookie ended up putting the bet bu on the wrong horse. That horse ended up winning me £40. wi

Favourite Excel function?

Alternative career choice?

A

SUMIFS

A chef. I’ve always loved cooking. I would like to think I could handle the pressure, too. lik

Greatest risk you have ever taken?

Dropping out from university for a year, then going back and starting a degree in

Do you know an actuary destined for greatness?

You can nominate an Actuary of the Future by emailing aotf@theactuary.com

PICTURES: ISTOCK / ALAMY / SHUTTERSTOCK

What would be your personal motto?

www.theactuary.com

38 AOTF_The Actuary Dec 2019_The Actuary 38

25/11/2019 15:30

At the back Appointments

Jobs

To advertise your vacancies in the magazine and online please contact: theactuaryjobs@redactive.co.uk or +44 (0) 20 7880 6234

Actuarial Vacancies HFG’s consultants specialise in matching you to the right role at the right Ǥ Ƥ what opportunities are available.

Please see a snapshot of our actuarial vacancies below. www.hfg.co.uk

hfginsurancerec

HFG Insurance Recruitment

Senior Reserving Contractor

Pricing Actuary

A specialist insurer is looking for a reserving contractor for 12 months. Working on a special project supporting the Head of Reserving, this is a unique opportunity to get involved Ƥ Ǥ capital experience is necessary. Please get in touch for further information.

A large composite insurer is seeking a Pricing Actuary for 3-6 months, ideally with commercial lines experience but willing to look at personal lines also. This role will start in January and will consider people moving from a permanent role to contracting.

Please get in touch for further information.

£700 - £1000 per day, London

£700 - £900 per day, London

William Gallimore

William Gallimore

IFRS 17 Actuary

Pricing Actuary

Ȁ Ƥ actuary to join this client’s internal consulting team. Initially you would be supporting the IFRS 17 project, however there is then scope to work on a variety of projects across the insurer’s local Ǥ Ƥ life assurance reporting experience and enjoy a varied workload.

Ȁ Ƥ ơ Lloyd’s Syndicate. Their pricing team is looking for someone with London market pricing experience to join their team and report Ǥ ơ responsibility of some of their top performing business lines.

͋͝​͝ Ǧ ͋͘͟ ǡ ƪ

£80k - £90k, London

Senior Risk Actuary

Featured Vacancy

HFG are supporting a leading syndicate in their search for a senior actuary to report directly into the Head of ERM with Ǥ Ƥ actuary with working risk management experience to join one of the most prestigious insurers in the market. Consulting or Lloyd’s experience would be advantageous. Please get in touch for further information.

Longevity Actuary

circa £120k, London

Ross Bennington

Capital Analyst One of the largest syndicates in the market is seeking a part Ƥ into the Head of Capital. This is an excellent opportunity to join a lean and energetic team where you will get exposure to all areas of the capital process. Lloyd’s experience is preferred. Please get in touch for further information.

up to £70k + package, London

+44 (0) 207 337 8800

Ross Bennington

William Gallimore UK Managing Director +44 (0) 207 337 8826 william@hfg.co.uk

Director +44 (0) 207 337 8816 mark@hfg.co.uk

Harrison Callen Harrison Callen GI Actuarial +44 (0) 207 220 1101 harrison.callen@hfg.co.uk

£60k - £80k - London

Working at the cutting edge of mortality trends this individual will be responsible for delivering regular mortality Ƥ Ǥ ǡ ơ exposure to the rest of the business. ơ in spanning across pricing, reporting and capital, giving you good visibility for career progression and variation for professional development. Ƥ ǡ ơ Ƥ ƪ Ǥ

Ǥ ̻ Ǥ Ǥ

0207 337 1203

Ross Bennington Risk +44 (0) 207 337 8810 ross.bennington@hfg.co.uk

Data Analytics +44 (0) 207 337 1203 daniel.roche@hfg.co.uk

Making moves in insurance recruitment

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 39

ACT recr Dec19.indd 39

25/11/2019 17:19

At the back Appointments

„„› ‡Â?’‡•– …–—ƒ”‹ƒŽ ÇŚ ‘Â?‰ ‘Â?‰ ‡‰ǣ Í™Í?͙͙͚͜͞ ÎŽÍ Í?Íš Í›Í&#x;Í?͘ Í&#x;͚͞Í&#x; abby@hfgasia.hk

ƒ�‡ ‘”–‘�

…–—ƒ”‹ƒŽ

‘Â?‰ — ‹ˆ‡ …–—ƒ”‹ƒŽ ‡‰ǣ Í™Í&#x;ÍžÍžÍ Í&#x; Ύ͜͜ Č‹Í˜ČŒ ͚͘Í&#x; ͚͚͘ ͙͙͘͘ tong@hfg.com.sg

ÎŽÍ Í?Íš Í›Í&#x;͘͞ Í&#x;͚͞͞ jake.morton@hfg.com.sg

APAC Actuarial Assignments Manager / Senior / Associate Director - Consulting

Assistant Manager / IFRS 17 Solution

There has never been a better time to get into consulting! With plenty of regulatory changes, a greater focus on risk and capital requirements and so Â?ƒÂ?› †‹˜‡”•‡ Â?•—”ƒÂ?…‡ Ƥ”Â?• ‹Â? –Š‡ Â?ƒ”Â?‡–ǥ –Š‡ ™‘”Ž† ‘ˆ …‘Â?•—Ž–‹Â?‰ ‹• „—•‹‡” –ŠƒÂ? ‡˜‡”Ǩ ‡ Šƒ˜‡ ’ƒ”–Â?‡”‡† ™‹–Š ‘Â?‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ Ž‡ƒ†‡”• ‹Â? –Š‹• •’ƒ…‡ –‘ Š‡Ž’ them source several talented actuaries to join their Shenzhen businesses.

Š‹• ‹Â?†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ™‹ŽŽ „‡ †‡•‹‰Â?‹Â?‰ –Š‡ ‡Â?† –‘ ‡Â?† •‘Ž—–‹‘Â? Â•Â’Â‡Â…Â‹Ć¤Â…ÂƒÂ–Â‹Â‘Â?• ‘” ’”‘…‡•• ƪ‘™ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ˆ—–—”‡ ”‡‰‹‘Â?ƒŽ Í™Í&#x; ”‡’‘”–‹Â?‰ ’”‘…‡••‡•Ǥ ‘— ™‹ŽŽ ƒŽ•‘ ‰‡– –‘ ƒ••‹•– ‹Â? —•‡” Â•Â’Â‡Â…Â‹Ć¤Â…ÂƒÂ–Â‹Â‘Â? †‘…—Â?‡Â?–• ˆ‘” Í™Í&#x; ”‘’Š‡– Â?‘†—Ž‡• ‘” …ƒŽ…—Žƒ–‹‘Â? ‡Â?‰‹Â?‡Ǥ ‘— •Š‘—Ž† ’‘••‡•• ƒ †‡Â?‘Â?•–”ƒ„Ž‡ ‹Â?–‡”‡•– ‹Â? Í™Í&#x; ™Š‹Ž•– ‘Ž˜‡Â?…›

Â?Â?‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ™‘—Ž† „‡ „‡Â?Â‡Ć¤Â…Â‹ÂƒÂŽÇ¤ Š‡› ”‡“—‹”‡ ƒÂ? ‹Â?†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ƪ—‡Â?– ‹Â? „‘–Š Š‹Â?‡•‡ and English. up to $60k HKD per month, Hong Kong Abby Tempest

up to $1.2m RMB, Shenzhen

Abby Tempest

Treaty Pricing Actuary

Pricing Manager

Our client, a leading international reinsurer, are searching for a key hire in the ˆ‘”Â? ‘ˆ ƒ •‡Â?‹‘” ”‹…‹Â?‰ …–—ƒ”› –‘ Œ‘‹Â? –Š‡‹” ‹Â?‰ƒ’‘”‡ –‡ƒÂ?Ǥ Š‡ ”‘Ž‡ ™‹ŽŽ „‡ •’‡…‹ƒŽ‹•‹Â?‰ ‹Â? ƒ”‹Â?‡ ™‹–Š ‡š’‘•—”‡ –‘ ‘–Š‡” „‹‰nj–‹…Â?‡– •’‡…‹ƒŽ–› Ž‹Â?‡• ‘Â? ƒÂ? ĥ Â?‡‡†‡† „ƒ•‹•Ǥ Š‡ ”‹…‹Â?‰ Č€ Â?†‡”™”‹–‹Â?‰ –‡ƒÂ? ƒ”‡ Ž‘‘Â?‹Â?‰ ˆ‘” •‘Â?‡‘Â?‡ ™‹–Š ƒ ™‡ƒŽ–Š ‘ˆ ‡š’‡”‹‡Â?…‡ ‹Â? ’”‹…‹Â?‰ǥ ‹†‡ƒŽŽ› –”‡ƒ–› ƒÂ?† Č€ ‘” Â?ƒ”‹Â?‡Ǥ

‡ Šƒ˜‡ ’ƒ”–Â?‡”‡† ™‹–Š ‘Â?‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ Žƒ”‰‡•– ‹Â?•—”‡”• „ƒ•‡† ‹Â? ‹Â?‰ƒ’‘”‡ –‘ ƤÂ?† –Š‡Â? ƒ ”‹…‹Â?‰ ƒÂ?ƒ‰‡”Ǥ Š‹• ‹• ƒ ”‘Ž‡ –‘ Ž‡ƒ† ƒÂ?† †”‹˜‡ ƒ ’”‹…‹Â?‰ –‡ƒÂ? ‹Â? …”‡ƒ–‹Â?‰ ƒÂ?† Â?‘Â?‹–‘”‹Â?‰ ˆ”ƒÂ?‡™‘”Â?• –‘ Â?ƒ‹Â?–ƒ‹Â? Â’Â”Â‘Ć¤Â–ÂƒÂ„Â‹ÂŽÂ‹Â–Â› ‘ˆ –Š‡ „—•‹Â?‡••Ǥ – ™‹ŽŽ ‹Â?…Ž—†‡ ƒ †‹˜‡”•‡ ”ƒÂ?‰‡ ‘ˆ ’‡”•‘Â?ƒŽ Ž‹Â?‡• ’”‘†—…–• ™‹–Š ƒ ˆ‘…—• ‘Â? –Š‡ ‡Â?‡”‰‹Â?‰ digitalisation of the market.

up to SGD $150k, Singapore

up to $180k SGD, Singapore

Jake Morton

Jake Morton

Head of Pricing

VP - Group Strategy

Š‹• ‹Â?†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ™‹ŽŽ „‡ Ž‡ƒ†‹Â?‰ –‡ƒÂ?• ‘ˆ ’”‹…‹Â?‰ ƒ…–—ƒ”‹‡• –‘ •—’’‘”– ’”‹…‹Â?‰ ˆ‘” –Š‡ Ž‹ˆ‡ „—•‹Â?॥ ™‹–Š ‡Â?’Šƒ•‹• ‘Â? ‰”‘—’ „—•‹Â?‡••ǥ ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‹Â?‰ ˆ—Â?†ǥ —Â?‹˜‡”•ƒŽ ÂŽÂ‹ÂˆÂ‡ÇĄ Â?‘Â?ÇŚÂ’ÂƒÂ”Â–Â‹Â…Â‹Â’ÂƒÂ–Â‹Â?‰ ƒÂ?† ‹Â?˜‡•–Â?‡Â?– Ž‹Â?Â?‡† ’”‘†—…–•Ǥ •‹ƒ Â?ƒ”Â?‡– ‡š’‘•—”‡ ‹• ”‡“—‹”‡†Ǥ Ž‡ƒ•‡ ‰‡– ‹Â? –‘—…Š ˆ‘” ˆ—”–Š‡” ‹Â?ˆ‘”Â?ƒ–‹‘Â?Ǥ

™‡ŽŽnjÂ?Â?‘™Â? †‹”‡…– ‹ˆ‡ ‹Â?•—”‡” ‹• •‡‡Â?‹Â?‰ Š‹‰Š …ƒŽ‹„”‡ …ƒÂ?†‹†ƒ–‡• ˆ”‘Â? ƒ…–—ƒ”‹ƒŽ „ƒ…Â?‰”‘—Â?†• –‘ Œ‘‹Â? –Š‡‹” ‰”‘—’ ‘Ƽ…‡ ‹Â? ‹Â?‰ƒ’‘”‡Ǥ Š‡ ‹Â?†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ™‹ŽŽ †‡ƤÂ?‡ǥ categorise, evaluate and prioritise all strategic initiatives aligning to the group’s •–”ƒ–‡‰‹… ‰‘ƒŽ•Ǥ Š‹• ”‘Ž‡ ”‡“—‹”‡• ‰‘‘† Â?Â?‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ „—•‹Â?॥ ƒÂ?† ‘’‡”ƒ–‹Â?‰ Â?‘†‡ŽǤ ‹Â?‰ƒ’‘”‡ ‘” Â?ƒ”Â?‡– ‡š’‘•—”‡ ‹• ’”‡ˆ‡””‡†Ǥ

up to $200k SGD + bonus, Singapore

$Competitive package, Singapore

Tong Yu

EA Licence Number: 14C7034

Tong Yu

www.hfg.com.sg | +65 6829 7153

Permanent and Contract Opportunities at APR Permanent roles for entry-level (school leavers and graduates), mid / senior students and qualiďŹ ed actuaries Positions based in London and Edinburgh, with the option for locating to Dublin Contracting opportunities across UK for actuarial professionals at all levels of experience

Join our growing team - opportunities for a range of placement and consulting projects Drawing on the high quality of the solutions we are providing to clients, whether individuals on placement or delivering project-based services, our business is continuing to grow. Our permanent actuarial staff gain exposure to a wide range of clients and projects, while beneďŹ ting from our highly-regarded training and support. Those who contract through APR enjoy our professional, focused approach to ďŹ nding suitable roles and supporting our contractors on placement. We currently have the following opportunities: Graduate Actuarial Associate

Actuarial Contractor Roles

Our well-established graduate training programme is based on comprehensive initial training and exposure to project roles selected with your development in mind.

We are suppliers to most of the UK’s largest insurance ďŹ rms, giving you access to a wide range of contracting opportunities. Our actuarial expertise and targeted approach to ďŹ lling roles maximises your chances of securing contracts that suit your skills and preferences.

Our exam pass rate far above the UK average gives you maximum chance to qualify quickly as you launch a successful and varied actuarial career.

We continue to support contractors to meet the challenges presented by the upcoming IR35 changes.

Actuarial Analyst (CAA)

Actuarial Associate / Senior Actuarial Associate

Drawing on our experience and strength in training actuarial students, we have now been recruiting Actuarial Analysts for three years.

We are looking out for high-quality actuarial students and qualiďŹ ed actuaries to supplement our team.

As well as giving you experience across a range of client projects we support our analysts to take the CAA qualiďŹ cation, hopefully as a ďŹ rst step towards full FIA qualiďŹ cation.

Those attracted to an associate role at APR are often looking for a broader range of actuarial experience or an increased level of responsibility through working for a smaller ďŹ rm.

For further information see: https://aprllp.com/working-for-apr/ https://aprllp.com/actuarial-contracting-with-apr/

Or contact: recruitment@aprllp.com

www.aprllp.com

40 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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At the back Appointments

actuarial@ipsgroup.co.uk / 020 7481 8111 / www.ipsgroup.co.uk GENERAL INSURANCE – UK UK Chief Actuary

Senior Actuary – ERM

To £175,000 per annum + Benefits – City of London This role is with the UK Company of a large International Insurance Group and will entail leading a small team responsible for Reserving, Pricing and Capital, ensuring all Regulatory requirements are met. You will need to be an experienced FIA qualified General Insurance Actuary with a breadth of expertise across Reserving, Capital and Pricing as well as the ability to effectively lead a team. You will also need a Practising Certificate and previous SIMF20 would be beneficial.

Contact: Jeremy.Cross@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111 Ref: TAM140466JCC

To £110,000 + Good Benefits – City of London This is a high profile role with a leading Lloyd’s Syndicate group and is a leadership position with responsibility for a small team as well as managing projects autonomously. You will identify, measure and manage exposure to risk, and communicate this to management and the Board in line with the Risk Management Framework. You will need to be a Qualified actuary with at least 5 years of relevant experience. High quality written and verbal communication skills are also crucial as duties will involve Board level presentations.

Reserving Manager

Reinsurance Pricing Actuary

£90,000 - £120,000 per annum + Benefits – City of London This position is with a substantial and ambitious global insurance and reinsurance group which has Company and Lloyd’s platforms, and you will contribute to the growth, development and sustained profitability through high-level contribution to the performance of the Actuarial function. It is an unusually high profile reserving role with extensive liaison with senior underwriters. You will need to be a qualified Actuary with reserving experience and our client will consider high calibre candidates ready to step up to their first management position as well as more experience managers.

Contact: Jeremy.Cross@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111 Ref: TAM139753 JCC

Up to £100,000 Base Salary + Bonus – City of London I am currently searching for a Pricing Actuary to join a cutting edge MGA reinsurance start up led by well-known and well regarded industry professionals. The start-up will be backed by an A Rated risk capacity that is multiyear committed. The start-up shall also create a Guernsey based Protected Cell Company to act as a quota share re-insurer of the underwritten portfolio. They are ideally looking for candidates who are a qualified pricing actuary with strong expertise in north American, London Specialty pricing plus Cat and aggregate management.

Broker/ Actuary

Pricing Analyst

Up to £90,000 Base Salary + Bonus – City of London A Major broking house are seeking a French Speaking Actuary who would be keen to become a Treaty Broker to handle a mixed portfolio of business (casualty, property, motor, engineering, credit and surety). This role will involve regular travel to our client’s offices in Continental Europe to attend client meetings on strategic and complex accounts. We are seeking an individual with very strong analytical skills, ability to adapt to working in different office/cultural environments.

Contact: Gary.Ahern@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111 Ref: TAM140689GA

Up to £50,000 Base Salary + Bonus and Study Support – City of London A Global Insurance Group are currently searching for an Analyst to join their growing Pricing function and help to develop and improve their pricing models. They are requiring an individual to be part qualified, highly technical, with some programming experience and also be an excellent communicator, both verbally and written. You will need to have at least 1 years of General Insurance Actuarial Pricing experience and be an advanced user of Excel and VBA. Contact: Gary.Ahern@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111 Ref: TAM140533GA

Non-Life Analyst - ILS

Senior Reserving Analyst – 12 month FTC

Up to £50,000 Base Salary + Bonus – City of London An exciting and rare opportunity has arisen with one of the leading Investment Managers who purely focus on ILS. You will be will be responsible for supporting the pricing process in London of both the private and public non-life investments. They are currently searching for an Individual with at least 1 year experience in catastrophe reinsurance this can be within a Broker or Lloyd’s Syndicate. The ideal candidate will have at least a 2.1 degree with a STEM subject and have experience of using either R, Python or SQL.

Up to £70,000 Base Salary + Bonus – City of London A Global Lloyd’s Syndicate are currently looking to hire an experienced Reserving Actuary. You will be a key member within this team, where you will be expected to run with the reserving process and suggest how this can be developed and improved. You will have responsibility for Reserving across all lines of business and you will also have the opportunity to work across Pricing and Capital Modelling. This position is a fantastic opportunity for an individual who is looking to take the next big step in their career.

Contact: Gary.Ahern@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111 Ref: TAM140298GA

Contact: Gary.Ahern@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111

LONDON ACT recr Dec19.indd 41

-

CHICAGO

Ref: TA M139850GA

-

HONG

Contact: Jeremy.Cross@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111 Ref: TAM140648JCC

Contact: Gary.Ahern@ipsgroup.co.uk 020 7481 8111

KONG

-

Ref: TAM140445GA

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 41

SHANGHAI

-

ZURICH 25/11/2019 17:19

At the back Appointments

The best from The Actuary Jobs To view all of these vacancies and many more please go to www.theactuaryjobs.com

Chief Pricing Actuary, Pricing and R&D Korea Up to £150,000 + bonus + expat benefits

Actuarial Graduate Opportunities London Competitive Salary

Senior Pricing Actuary - Protection quotes London £80,000 - £100,000 per annum + bonus + excellent benefits

Senior Consultant - Actuary London Highly competitive salary

Graduate Actuary London Competitive Salary with benefits

Senior Investment Analyst Amersham or London Competitive Salary

42 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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“One of the greatest regrets in life is being what others would want you to be, rather than being yourself.�

- Shannon L Alder

...make 2020 the year of change?

sophie@orangemalone.com www.orangemalone.com 0771 363 7998 / 01932 782 119

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 43

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NON-LIFE

[EXCLUSIVE] PROJECT ACTUARY

ACTUARIAL ANALYST

London, £70,000-£90,000

London, £competitive salary

We are currently working exclusively with a Lloyd's syndicate who is currently seeking a nearly/newly qualified actuary.

A Lloyd's insurer is currently seeking an Actuarial Analyst to work within a mixed role covering both capital modelling and pricing.

The role will focus on leading on all actuarial projects for the team, covering pricing, reserving and capital modelling.

These initiatives will range from the developing a new pricing model, optimising reserving processes and investigating the impact of new risks on capital calculations.

The role will support the implementation of a new internal model whilst also being heavily involved in pricing model/tool development.

Candidates will be nearly/newly qualified and have strong consultancy experience, covering any actuarial discipline.

The ideal candidate will be a part-qualified actuary with strong academics and experience within either capital modelling or pricing. Knowledge of VBA, R, SQL would be beneficial.

Contact: james.rydon@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3239

Contact: james.rydon@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3239

ACTUARIAL RESERVING MANAGER

DEPUTY PRICING MANAGER

London, up to £100,000

London, up to £90,000

A well-established London Market (re)insurer is currently looking to grow their actuarial team with the addition of a newly/nearly qualified actuary.

A growing Lloyd's Managing Agency is seeking a nearly/newly qualified actuary to join their pricing function.

This role will focus on leading reserving for their treaty lines portfolio, and will be responsible for managing a team of 2 student actuaries.

The ideal candidate will have strong reserving experience from a big 4 consultancy background.

Contact: james.rydon@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3239

The role will work closely with underwriters, supporting large account pricing, tool/model development and portfolio analysis. In addition the role will also have responsibility for a small team of analysts.

The ideal candidate will have gain strong experience within a similar Lloyd’s pricing role and be looking to take the step up into management.

Contact: james.rydon@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3239

REINSURANCE RESERVING ACTUARY

REINSURANCE PRICING ACTUARY

London, up to £110,000

London, up to £110,000

A leading reinsurance entity is looking to hire a qualified actuary into their growing reserving function. The role will report into the CRO and involve quarterly reserving, SII Technical Provisions and Business Planning.

A leading broker is seeking a qualified actuary to join their London-based analytics function. This will report into the Head of Pricing and focus on treaty pricing. The role will interact with brokers and clients on a daily basis so an exceptional level of communication is expected.

The ideal candidate will be qualified having made demonstrable progress through their actuarial exams. Reserving experience is essential to the role, with a strong preference towards London Market or Reinsurance. This will involve heavy interaction with underwriters, so an excellent level of communication is also vital.

The ideal candidate will be a fully qualified and have strong London market pricing experience, ideally with exposure to treaty lines.

Contact: james.rydon@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3239

Contact: james.rydon@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3239

GI RESERVING CONTRACTORS

GI PRICING CONTRACTOR

London, £700pd-£1100pd 6 months (initially)

London, £700pd-£1000pd 6 months (initially)

Due to rapid growth and change my client, a global player in the market, is looking for a number of contractors to assist in the reserving team. You will be involved with BAU as well as Solvency 2, TP work, Lloyd’s / LMKT experience is a must and.

I am currently representing a number of clients that are looking for pricing contractors to help through their busy season. Commercial/ LMKT Pricing experience is essential in various lines as well as strong communication experience is a must given you will be working closely with UWs.

Contact: rupa.pithiya@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3249

Contact: rupa.pithiya@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3249

Our team work on both permanent and contract opportunities across life and non-life insurance and the pensions and investment markets. If you are looking for your next career move or to discuss other opportunities we may have, get in touch with a member of our team today for a confidential discussion. Alternatively, please visit our website for more information on the opportunities our consultants are working on.

44 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

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RISK, PENSIONS & INVESTMENTS [EXCLUSIVE] HEAD OF RISK

RISK MANAGER

London, £110,000 - £130,000

London, £65,000 - £75,000

A fantastic opportunity to join a global reinsurer who are looking to build out a new business. Our client is now looking to hire a Head of Risk to establish a Risk and Compliance framework for their new MGA. Working with senior stakeholders across the existing Syndicate you will develop a seamless governance model.

A global insurer is seeking a qualified actuary to join their Risk function. You will be involved in a variety of projects and work closely with the wider risk, actuarial and underwriting teams.

This opportunity is rare and would suit an experience Risk professional with experience across 1st and 2nd line within a multi-class environment. Candidates will need to have high self-motivation and be highly organised.

Contact: antony.williams@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3258

Reporting Directly to the Head of P&C Risk and ERM you will be focused on all Risks across all business units, including Strategy, Product Approval, ORSA and Emerging Risks.

The successful candidate will be a qualified actuary or Statistician with a strong retail pricing background who is looking to make the move into Risk Management.

Contact: antony.williams@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3258

OPERATIONAL RISK STRATEGY & CHANGE LEAD South East, £110,000 - £130,000 A leading personal lines insurer are looking for an experienced operational risk and change leader to join their business. Reporting directly to the Director of Risk, you will be responsible for developing and driving regulatory change across the business. You will work with senior stakeholders ensuring that the risk agenda is set and delivered.

Candidates will have experience leading regulatory change initiatives, have a sound understanding of Risk management, along with experience understanding and translating complex business requirements.

Contact: antony.williams@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3258

ILS MANAGER London, £65,000 - £80,000 We have partnered with an independent investment manager specialising in insurance investment who are experiencing a good period of growth. The business is looking for technically skilled catastrophe analysts who would be interested to move into an ILS role with the team.

You will ideally have a number of years working within the industry, be skilled in reinsurance pricing, and have working knowledge of at least one coding language (preferably R and/or SQL). Research and development skills as well as data management experience are also favourable.

Contact: lucas.phelps@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3291

INVESTMENT MANAGER

INVESTMENT MODELLING CONSULTANT

London, up to £90,000 - £105,000

London, up to £80,000

We have partnered with a leading bulk annuities business who are seeking an Investment Manager to join their retirement / pensions investment team. The primary focus of the role will be to determine the investment strategy, including making proposals into the firm’s asset and liability committee. You will direct the team in all aspects of ALM and market hedging, constructing and implementing the asset allocation for the bulk annuities book, as well as working with institutional partners to monitor and execute tactical opportunities in the rates and inflation space. You will have substantial experience within the investment industry with a solid understanding of insurance company balance sheets and previous fixed income asset class knowledge. CFA or actuarial exam qualification would be highly desirable along with an awareness of the market and an ability to influence stakeholders in reference to market and trade views.

Our client is looking for an Investment Consultant with a strong technical skill set to join their Investment consulting team. A large part of this role will involve modelling i.e. ALM and stochastic modelling and be able to apply this when providing strategic investment advice to DB and DC pension schemes. The suitable candidate must have previous experience of developing asset liability models and be able to convey this information to internal and external stakeholders. you will be expected to identify suitable investment structures to implement strategies, conduct investment manager research and manager selection that lead clients to reach decisions on managers. You should also be FIA or CFA qualified with previous experience within the investment consulting sector.

Contact: dylan.walters-bale@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3227

Contact: dylan.walters-bale@eamesconsulting.com | 0207 092 3227

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 45

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KEEPING YOU IN THE LOOP

As a professional, you’ll no doubt want to keep up with the latest industry developments?

That’s why The Actuary’s weekly email alert brings you a handy round-up of only the most relevant news stories and comment, straight to your inbox every Thursday.

46 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

ACT recr Dec19.indd 46

Register for weekly email newsletters at www.theactuary.com Browse www.theactuaryjobs.com and www.theactuaryjobsasia.com the official jobsites of the actuarial profession.

www.theactuaryjobs.com

The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

25/11/2019 17:19

At the back Appointments

Jacqui van Teutem

Susan Bradley

Senior Ànancial reporting opportunities for Life Actuaries

Due to expansion of their Dublin operations our international life and reinsurance clients are looking for life actuaries from newly qualiÀed through to management level roles. We are particularly interested in hearing from individuals with Ànancial reporting experience.

Many of the roles support the implementation of IFRS 17 standard from development to production as well as working with the evolving Solvency II regulatory environment. Some include working on M&A activity and other complex Ànancial transactions. Our reporting roles will enable individuals to build on their technical expertise and problem-solving ability whilst working on these latest developments.

Vacancies for Ambitious Pricing Actuaries - QualiÀed and Part-QualiÀed

We are recruiting for ambitious qualiÀed and part qualiÀed actuaries to work in Dublin in both retail, commercial and re-insurance pricing roles. Working independently and as part of a team, opportunities exist in both direct and re-insurance companies who are expanding their European operations. We also have opportunities with local insurance companies. If you have two or more years of pricing experience and strong analytical skills, then we have positions that suit you.

Dublin is growing as a centre for Actuaries

The number of vacancies for actuaries in Dublin has increased signiÀcantly in the past 12 months. If you are an ambitious individual looking to progress your actuarial career, then come to Dublin. International candidates are being welcomed to Àll the growing number of roles covering a wide range of actuarial positions.

For further information on these and other opportunities in Ireland please contact us at jobs@raretec.ie If you are a company looking for permanent or contract actuarial resources then call us on +35315311400 We look forward to hearing from you www.raretec.ie

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 47

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N OLNI -FLEI F E

LEAD ACTUARY

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR - PRODUCTS

Qualified

Large Firm

Qualified

LIFE FLEXIBLE LOCATION

STAR5983

LIFE LOCATION UPON APPLICATION

CAPITAL OPTIMISATION

Leading Insurer STAR6023

Our client has a unique opportunity for a life actuarial leader with a detailed knowledge of regulatory reporting requirements to take responsibility for defining the actuarial methodology and assumptions for the technical provisions.

Leverage your strategic thinking, partnership development and management experience to deliver the business plan and develop our client's products. Digital solutions experience (e.g. Insurtech) is required.

SENIOR LIFE ACTUARIAL MANAGER

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR

Qualified

Qualified

Major Global Consultancy

LIFE MANCHESTER

STAR5926

Qualified

Leading-Edge Firm

LIFE FLEXIBLE LOCATION

STAR5984

Use your detailed knowledge of capital, liquidity and ALM to take ownership of the capital optimisation capabilities, playing a key role in developing the culture and operating model of the Chief Actuary function.

LIFE ACTUARY - FINANCIAL REPORTING Major Consultancy

LIFE LONDON

STAR5882

Qualified

Leading-Edge Global Insurer

LIFE LONDON

STAR6001

Play a leading role, building strong client relationships and becoming a trusted advisor.

You will network both internally and externally, and play a significant part in new business proposals and presentations.

A key role, allowing you to develop, launch and exploit new initiatives and service lines to diversify the business. You will be a role model for colleagues, providing them with appropriate learning and development opportunities.

Seeking an excellent communicator to play a key role in the delivery of the IFRS and Solvency II reporting requirements. You will evaluate, develop and implement the methodology used.

MODELLING WITH THE BEST

REPORTING THE FUTURE

ACTUARIAL CONSULTANT

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Global Player

LIFE LONDON

STAR5769

Use your experience building models with MoSes, Prophet, RAFM, or other similar platforms within a high-calibre team. The role has a specific financial modelling focus, and is part of a wider finance transformation team.

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Major Global Clients

Part-Qualified

Market Leader

STAR6003

LIFE BRISTOL

STAR5927

LIFE LONDON

Seeking multiple candidates with financial reporting experience and IFRS17 knowledge.

Take up one of many exciting opportunities to shape the future of financial reporting within major global firms.

SENIOR SYSTEMS ANALYST

SENIOR ACTUARIAL ANALYST - LONGEVITY

SENIOR ANALYST

Part-Qualified

Major Reinsurer

Part-Qualified

Major Insurance Group

LIFE LONDON

STAR6016

LIFE LONDON

STAR6005

In this key role, you will co-ordinate reinsurance quotations and reviews of treaty profitability, and make recommendations as necessary. You will have experience of RAFM (or similar financial modelling software).

Develop and price new and existing products whilst interpreting results of experience investigations, and updating the pricing model and basis using data analysis and modelling techniques.

INVESTMENT REPORTING ACTUARY

CREDIT RISK MODELLING ANALYST

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Part-Qualified

Major Insurer

LIFE INVESTMENT LONDON

STAR5998

A unique role taking ownership of the production of IFRS and Solvency II reporting metrics with a focus on the asset side of the balance sheet. Modelling experience in R is desirable.

An excellent opportunity to hone your consulting, project management and modelling skills. You will support a wide variety of assignments, and be involved in diverse workstreams, building your profile with extensive client contact.

Major Insurer

LIFE INVESTMENT LONDON

Part-Qualified

Large Firm

LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR5972

Use your experience in model design, coding and testing (ideally in Prophet), and assetliability modelling, within a forward-thinking actuarial systems team. You will also have an understanding of programming developments.

Is your next role one of the

STAR5839

A great opportunity to provide technical advice, modelling and insight in relation to credit risk for Solvency II and Economic Capital purposes. You will assist in the development of updates and replacements to credit models.

66 LIFE

VACANCIES on our website?

Irene Paterson FFA

Lance Randles MBA

Peter Baker

Jan Sparks FIA

PARTNER +44 7545 424 206 irene.paterson@staractuarial.com

PARTNER +44 7889 007 861 lance.randles@staractuarial.com

PARTNER +44 7860 602 586 peter.baker@staractuarial.com

PARTNER +44 7477 757 151 jan.sparks@staractuarial.com

Jo Frankham

Adam Goodwin

Clare Roberts

Sarah O’Brien

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR +44 7950 419 115 jo.frankham@staractuarial.com

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR +44 7584 357 590 adam.goodwin@staractuarial.com

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR +44 7714 490 922 clare.roberts@staractuarial.com

SENIOR CONSULTANT +44 7841 025 393 sarah.obrien@staractuarial.com

Antony Buxton FIA

Louis Manson

Joanne O’Connor

MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7766 414 560 antony.buxton@staractuarial.com

MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7595 023 983 louis.manson@staractuarial.com

OPERATIONS DIRECTOR +44 7739 345 946 joanne.oconnor@staractuarial.com

| THECONTACT ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019 TI M E TO PL48 EASE US AT ANY DISCUSS Y OUR RECRUI TM ENT NEEDS

ACT recr Dec19.indd 48

+44 20 7868 1900

staractuarial.com 25/11/2019 17:19

ACTUARIAL POST RECRUITER OF THE YEAR 2012 . 2013 . 2014 . 2015 . 2016 . 2017 . 2018At the back

Appointments

NON-LIFE Market Leader

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR5834

PRICING LEADER

HEAD OF PRICING

Qualified

Managing Agency

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR5954

Qualified

Large Insurer

NON-LIFE LONDON / SOUTH EAST

STAR5974

A pivotal role for a commercial actuary with the ability to provide strategic input and challenge across pricing and analytics, whilst being equally able to contribute from a technical and modelling standpoint.

Our client has an exciting opportunity for a qualified non-life actuary with specialty lines pricing experience to lead its commercial lines and personal lines pricing function, developing tools and processes.

SUPERSTAR CAPITAL ACTUARY

LEADING ACTUARIAL ANALYTICS

RISK MANAGER - PROPERTY & CASUALTY

Qualified

Qualified

Qualified

Offshore Reinsurer

NON-LIFE LOCATION UPON APPLICATION

STAR5854

Global Market Leader

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR5849

Lead the development of innovative pricing models, be a data leader, and work with other stakeholders to identify commercial opportunities where pricing can help to deliver business objectives.

Major Insurer

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR5994

A unique offshore opportunity for a highcalibre actuary with advanced knowledge in capital management. Any broader experience, including reserving, will be helpful. Take a step up on your path to the top!

Join a niche team, offering the opportunity to develop and deploy your strong analytical skills in the design and delivery of bespoke solutions for clients, taking account of capital and profitability considerations.

A fantastic opportunity to use your analytical problem-solving skills to provide second opinion on risk considerations for financial planning, pricing models and strategic developments.

PRICING - NATIONWIDE

SPECIALIST NON-LIFE ACTUARIES

NON-LIFE REINSURANCE ANALYTICS

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Leading Consultancy

NON-LIFE NATIONWIDE

STAR5837

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Leading-Edge Client

NON-LIFE LONDON / INTERNATIONAL

STAR5948

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Market Leader

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR5841

Join a growing team working on a wide range of projects, from building machine learning models to regulatory reviews, deep model reviews, governance, internal audit, catastrophe pricing, and transfer pricing.

In these key roles, you will contribute to the production of transaction assessments for companies in our client’s group across multiple jurisdictions, and produce models and robust reserve analyses of potential transactions.

An ideal opportunity for a reinsurance pricing specialist to join a leading team in a global business. You will provide a diverse set of clients with cutting-edge solutions to a wide range of technical problems.

COMMERCIAL LINES PRICING MANAGER

CAPITAL MODELLING ACTUARY

VARIED LONDON MARKET ROLE

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Market Leader

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR5915

Use your experience in Commercial Lines insurance, along with your strong analytical and statistical skills, to lead the development and delivery of appropriate GLM analysis and technical pricing models.

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR5976

Work with senior management to ensure compliance with the regulatory framework, whilst also assisting with financial modelling, planning and forecasting activities and ensuring team policies meet the needs of the business.

GI ACTUARIAL ANALYST

SENIOR PRICING ANALYST Part-Qualified

Large Insurer

Household Name

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR5955

Join a specialist pricing team to play a crucial role in delivering a rating structure that will achieve premium income and profit objectives.

You will support research into new statistical techniques and market best practice.

Part-Qualified

Personal Lines Insurer

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR5946

Take up this exciting development opportunity, undertaking reserving reviews across Personal Lines portfolios. You will use SQL to manipulate the data to investigate emerging trends and drivers.

Part-Qualified

Specialist Insurer

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR5975

Our client is seeking a part-qualified non-life actuary with strong technical and communication skills to provide actuarial support on reserving, capital and M&A projects.

Is your next role one of the

103

NON-LIFE & HEALTHCARE

VACANCIES on our website?

Lance Randles MBA

Jan Sparks FIA

Paul Cook

PARTNER +44 7889 007 861 lance.randles@staractuarial.com

PARTNER +44 7477 757 151 jan.sparks@staractuarial.com

A ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR + +44 7740 285 139 ppaul.cook@staractuarial.com

Satpal Johri

Clare Roberts

Diane Anderson

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR +44 7808 507 600 satpal.johri@staractuarial.com

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR +44 7714 490 922 clare.roberts@staractuarial.com

SENIOR CONSULTANT +44 7492 060 219 diane.anderson@staractuarial.com

Antony Buxton FIA

Louis Manson

Joanne O’Connor

MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7766 414 560 antony.buxton@staractuarial.com

MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7595 023 983 louis.manson@staractuarial.com

OPERATIONS DIRECTOR +44 7739 345 946 joanne.oconnor@staractuarial.com

Star Actuarial Futures Ltd is an employment agency and employment business

E IV

US

CL

Qualified

EX

NON-TRADITIONAL PRICING LEAD

DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 49

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ACTUARIAL POST RECRUITER OF THE YEAR 2012 . 2013 . 2014 . 2015 . 2016 . 2017 . 2018 At the back

Appointments

PENSIONS

INVESTMENT

The pensions market is currently extremely buoyant, with exciting opportunities across the UK at all levels. Now is a great time to contact us regarding the next move in your pensions career.

LONDON HEAD

IN-HOUSE PENSIONS

Qualified

Growing Business

PENSIONS LONDON

STAR6027

Exciting opportunity for a qualified actuary with strong technical skills and entrepreneurial flair to take up a leadership role and build a new London team. Contact us now for further information.

IN-HOUSE CORPORATE PENSIONS

Qualified

Leading Client

PENSIONS MIDLANDS

STAR5996

Qualified

Multinational Corporation

PENSIONS SOUTH EAST

STAR6014

Join a growing specialist corporate pensions team, working on one of the UK's largest schemes. Your project management experience, excellent communication and teamwork skills will all be valued and utilised.

CLIENT LEADERSHIP

PENSIONS ACTUARY

E IV

Part-Qualified / Qualified

US

YORKSHIRE - NICHE PENSIONS

Niche Pensions

PENSIONS YORKSHIRE

STAR6025

Qualified

Trustee Specialists

PENSIONS FLEXIBLE / NATIONWIDE

STAR5937

Qualified

Major Firm

PENSIONS LONDON

STAR5908

A unique and interesting opportunity to work in a small team on a niche area of pensions.

Areas of work range from divorce settlements and unfair dismissals to personal injury and professional negligence claims.

Seeking creative individuals looking to make a real difference. Take the lead on independent trustee services, and be responsible for managing a portfolio of clients whilst assisting the development of the firm.

Take on a wide-ranging portfolio of work whilst developing client exposure and essential business skills. You will work on scheme funding, company accounting work, actuarial factors and individual member calculations.

ACTUARIAL PENSIONS MANAGER

CORPORATE PENSIONS LEADER

SPECIALIST PENSIONS ACTUARY

Qualified

Qualified

Leading Global Consultancy

PENSIONS MANCHESTER

STAR5165

Major Organisation

PENSIONS LONDON

STAR6006

Qualified

Market Leader

PENSIONS LONDON

STAR5969

Join an expanding business to deliver highquality advice to a range of clients. Building and managing relationships with trustee boards, you will act as Scheme Actuary to a number of smaller DB Pension schemes.

A fantastic opportunity for an entrepreneurial actuary to transform and expand a pensions business. You will have experience of being reponsible for hitting revenue targets and driving strategy for multi-disciplinary teams.

Take up this varied role, offering a good worklife balance and the opportunity to diversify.

You will provide a high-quality consultancy service to large pension schemes, managing the production and delivery of large projects.

SCOTTISH PENSIONS - FLEXIBLE

ACTUARIAL PENSIONS ASSISTANT

PENSIONS INVESTMENT MANAGER

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Leading Consultancy

PENSIONS GLASGOW OR EDINBURGH

STAR5786

We have a number of opportunities available for pensions specialists to work closely with the senior actuaries on corporate DB schemes, DC consulting, and expert witness testimony.

Flexible working patterns will be considered.

Is your next role one of the

99

PENSIONS & INVESTMENT

VACANCIES on our website?

Part-Qualified

Leading Consultancy

PENSIONS LEEDS

STAR5705

Qualified

Major Global Consultancy

PENSIONS INVESTMENT BRISTOL

STAR5995

Use your understanding of pension benefits and their calculations to support modelling workstreams, assisting with a variety of data reconciliation work. You will also perform cash flow modelling under various scenarios.

A fantastic opportunity for a talented investment consultant with excellent workflow management and client relationship skills to contribute to the growth of a brand new investment team.

INVESTMENT MANAGER

DC INVESTMENT CONSULTANT

Part-Qualified / Qualified

Qualified

Major Global Consultancy

INVESTMENT LEEDS

STAR5520

Take a lead role in investment manager research and the provision of investment advice to a wide range of clients. You will use your interpersonal and communication skills to develop various manager relationships.

Global Leader

INVESTMENT LONDON

STAR6022

Oversee a portfolio of DC clients, delivering investment advice, ongoing investment governance and ensuring schemes continue to provide value for members.

Irene Paterson FFA

Peter Baker

Adam Goodwin

PARTNER +44 7545 424 206 irene.paterson@staractuarial.com

PARTNER +44 7860 602 586 peter.baker@staractuarial.com

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR +44 7584 357 590 adam.goodwin@staractuarial.com

Antony Buxton FIA

Louis Manson

Joanne O’Connor

MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7766 414 560 antony.buxton@staractuarial.com

MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7595 023 983 louis.manson@staractuarial.com

OPERATIONS DIRECTOR +44 7739 345 946 joanne.oconnor@staractuarial.com

| THECONTACT ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019 TI M E TO PL50 EASE US AT ANY DISCUSS Y OUR RECRUI TM ENT NEEDS

ACT recr Dec19.indd 50

+44 20 7868 1900

Star Actuarial Futures Ltd is an employment agency and employment business

CL

EX

Provide support for the pension risk management infrastructure and contribute to effective risk and capital management by establishing and maintaining assessment mechanisms, stress testing and governance.

staractuarial.com 25/11/2019 17:19

At the back Appointments

^OH[ H `LHY P[»Z ILLU It’s been a great year. Hundreds of actuaries found their dream role, with just a little bit of help from us - but that’s not all we’re celebrating. Here’s a recap of 2019:

50+

1,923

Leadership appointments in the UK

Live global jobs in 2019 The launch of our Actuary webinar with NoCA

Lastly...

Thanks for all your support

>O` ^HP[ \U[PS [V ÄUK `V\Y UL_[ YVSL& >L»]L NV[ V]LY `V\ JHU JOVVZL MYVT ;HRL H SVVR HUK JHSS \Z [VKH`

237

FEATURED ROLES: Chief Actuary London | £120,000 - £170,000

Damian Bialozynski +44 (0) 203 861 9208 Damian.Bialozynski@ojassociates.com London Market Pricing Analyst London | £60,000 + package Jessica Harkin +44 (0) 203 861 9259 Jessica.Harkin@ojassociates.com

LIVE UK JOBS Deputy Chief Actuary London | £150,000 + package

Robert Gormley +44 (0) 203 861 9193 Robert.Gormley@ojassociates.com London Market Reserving Consultant London | £700 - £1000/day Jonathan Lord +44 (0) 203 861 9150 Jonathan.Lord@ojassociates.com

639

LIVE GLOBAL JOBS

Investment Manager Insurance/Bulk Annuities/Fixed Income City of London | £80,000 - £100,000 Alex George +44 (0) 203 861 9167 Alex.George@ojassociates.com

Senior Prophet Modelling Actuary Dublin | Rate: €700 - €900/day Chris Armstrong +44 (0) 203 861 9209 Chris.Armstrong@ojassociates.com

+44 (0) 203 861 9200 ojassociates.com/theactuary DECEMBER 2019 | THE ACTUARY | 51

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ACTUARIAL POST RECRUITER OF THE YEAR 2012 . 2013 . 2014 . 2015 . 2016 . 2017 . 2018 At the back

Appointments

C U RR E NT U K VA C A N C IE S * SCOTLAND

NORTH EAST & YORKSHIRE

PENSIONS

8

INVESTMENT

3

PENSIONS

12

LIFE

7

INVESTMENT

2

NON-LIFE

3

LIFE

3

NON-LIFE

1

MIDLANDS NORTH WEST

PENSIONS

8

PENSIONS

8

INVESTMENT

2

INVESTMENT

1

LIFE

10

LIFE

8

NON-LIFE

6

NON-LIFE

6

EAST ANGLIA LIFE

2

NON-LIFE

1

SOUTH WEST & WALES PENSIONS

11

INVESTMENT

3

LIFE

7

NON-LIFE

7

SOUTH COAST PENSIONS

1

INVESTMENT

2

LIFE

4

NON-LIFE

6

LONDON PENSIONS

37

INVESTMENT

20

LIFE

30

NON-LIFE

57

SOUTH EAST PENSIONS

21

INVESTMENT

1

LIFE

10

NON-LIFE

20

*at time of writing

CONTACT STAR TODAY TO DISCUSS THESE ROLES 52 | THE ACTUARY | DECEMBER 2019

Antony Buxton FIA MANAGING DIRECTOR +44 7766 414 560 | antony.buxton@staractuarial.com ACT recr Dec19.indd 52

staractuarial.com 25/11/2019 17:20