Act Jan/Feb 2014

JANUARY/ FEBRUARY 2014 theactuary.com

Interview: Nick Silver

The magazine of the actuarial profession

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General insurance Driving innovation in the motor insurance market

Soapbox Investing in renewable energy

Review The Actuary

Climate change in the media

January/February 2014

T S N I AG A ALL ODDS

extreme risk – Fifty-seven variieettiieess of er warfare from pandemics to cyb

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Appointments

What’s underneath?

We look below the surface to spot trends early and show you what is really happening. Whether your need relates to risk management, capital, or strategy, our cutting-edge analysis techniques can help you see deeper than the competition.

Get new insights on your business at uk.milliman.com.

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THE ACTUARY • October 2013 www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 15:18

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014

Contents COVER: MATT HERRING

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“The high rankings of risks like cyber warfare and data compromises in the cloud provide encouragement on how the industry is keeping up to date with risk assessment”

22 27

UP FRONT

FEATURES

AT THE BACK

10 IFoA news

18 Interview: Nick Silver

32 Arts

14 People/society news 16 General insurance news 17 Industry news

OPINION 5

Editorial New editor Kelvin Chamunorwa believes 2014 will be a year of opportunities for actuaries

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President’s comment David Hare opens the new year with good intentions and a motto to encourage us all to hit the ground running in 2014

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Soapbox David Casale comments on the rise in the number of pension funds investing in renewable technologies

Once a traditional actuary, Silver now focuses on helping developing countries and promoting green investments. He talks to Kelvin Chamunorwa

22 Extreme risks Graham Fulcher examines extreme risks and how to keep forearmed despite the fact that they are notoriously hard to identify

26 Driverless cars As driverless cars are preparing for launch in Milton Keynes, Partha Panda takes a look at how the new innovation will change the motor insurance market

28 Periodic payment Victoria Jenkins argues that behavioural economics has an important role to play in actuarial work

31 Book review Claire Jones on Climate change in the media: reporting risk and uncertainty

by James Painter

MORE CONTENT ONLINE Additional content can be found at www.theactuary.com

COVER: MATT HERRING/DEBUT ART

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30 Survey Editor Kelvin Chamunorwa presents the results of The Actuary’s 2013 readership survey

Natalie Li provides a cultural guide to the ‘fun-tastic’ events coming up in the first half of 2014

34 Puzzles Try the latest cryptic crossword and Mensa puzzles for a chance to win Amazon vouchers

37 Student Jessica Elkin explains how the Technical Actuarial Standards give confidence in actuaries’ accountability and ethics

38 Actuary of the future Matthew George, of Aviva

38 Appointments and moves

ONLINE The Lord Mayor’s message to the Livery Companies Alderman Fiona Woolf CBE, The Rt. Hon. The Lord Mayor of London, outlines her appeal and programmes for 2014

Worshipful Company of Actuaries Philanthropy never more important than now, says WCA Master Charles Cowling

WRITER OF THE MONTH Graham Fulcher wins a £50 book token for his feature on extreme risk, courtesy of SIAS

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY 3 www.theactuary.com

28/01/2014 11:23

Appointments

Business Critical As a self-respecting actuarial professional, you’ll no doubt want to keep up with the latest industry developments, people and society updates and professional news.

But you’re also busy being an actuarial professional. Right?

That’s why The Actuary’s weekly email alert brings you a handy round-up of only the most relevant news stories and comment, straight to your inbox, every Thursday.

Sign up for weekly news alerts today Visit www.theactuary.com/email-sign-up 4

THE ACTUARY • October 2013 www.theactuary.com

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Opinion Editorial theactuary.com

Publisher Redactive Media Group 17-18 Britton Street, London EC1M 5TP +44 (0)20 7880 6200 Editor, Redactive finance division Mike Thatcher Publishing director Joanna Marsh Sub-editors Kathryn Manning Caroline Taylor

editor@theactuary.com Internet The Actuary: www.theactuary.com Staple Inn Actuarial Society: www.sias.org.uk Institute and Faculty of Actuaries: www.actuaries.org.uk Managing editor Sharon Maguire +44 (0)20 7880 6246 sharon.maguire@redactive.co.uk Editor Kelvin Chamunorwa editor@theactuary.com Features editors Sarah Bennett, health, international Jeremy Lee, pensions, investment, ERM, banking

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Richard Purcell Richard Schneider, life, Solvency II, mortality/longevity, modelling and software Sonal Shah, GI, reinsurance, environment, careers (UK) Helen Lau, GI, reinsurance, environment, careers Contact: features@theactuary.com People/society news editor Yvonne Wan social@theactuary.com Student page editor Jessica Elkin student@theactuary.com Arts page arts@theactuary.com

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Profession news editor Catherine Murray +44 (0)20 7632 2198 catherine.murray@actuaries.org.uk

Picture editor Akin Falope

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Production executive Rachel Young +44 (0)20 7880 6209 rachel.young@redactive.co.uk

Editorial advisory panel Peter Tompkins (chairman), David Campbell, Matthew Edwards, Martin Lunnon, Sherdin Omar, Richard Purcell, Nick Silver, Andrew Smith

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Subscriptions For subscriptions from outside the actuarial profession, UK: £90 per annum/£8.50 per copy. Europe: £110 per annum, rest of the world: £130 per annum. Contact: Catherine Murray, The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QT. T +44 (0)20 7632 2100 E catherine.murray@actuaries.org.uk Students on actuarial science courses may join and they will receive The Actuary as part of their membership. Apply to: Membership Department, The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Maclaurin House, 18 Dublin Street, Edinburgh EH1 3PP. T +44 (0)131 240 1325 E membership@actuaries.org.uk Changes of address should inform the membership department as above.

For delivery queries, contact: Rachel Young E rachel.young@redactive.co.uk Published by the Staple Inn Actuarial Society The editor, The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and Staple Inn Actuarial Society are not responsible for the opinions put forward in The Actuary. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the copyright owners. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the content, the publisher and its contributors accept no responsibility for any material contained herein.

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Dawn of a new age New editor, Kelvin Chamunorwa, believes 2014 holds great promise – and that actuaries are well-placed to seize the opportunities available Economic recovery is widely expected in much of the developed world this year.

In the UK and the US, unemployment rates are improving faster than expected and the focus has now moved on to the withdrawal of the respective central banks’ quantitative easing programmes. I sense a generally positive outlook for 2014 – if only that meant we could all sit back and let the good times roll.

The reality is that any growth might not be strong or sustained and there are real concerns around the impact of ‘tapering’ on long-term interest rates and asset prices. There is no denying that central bank action has had a profound effect on financial markets over the past few years and is likely to continue to do so in the coming months. Actuaries’ analysis and advice will be invaluable in helping stakeholders understand and manage the risk posed by the financial uncertainty.

As a profession we have reason to be upbeat.

On a personal note, I feel privileged to have this opportunity to serve members of my profession as editor of The Actuary, and I’m delighted to join an editorial team with such zeal and commitment to the production of the magazine.

The first item on my action list was to interview Nick Silver, an actuary whose work is international and also encompasses environmental issues, two of the editorial themes this month. Silver advises governments of developing countries on pension and social security policy and is involved with various initiatives on climate change. He is proof of how actuaries’ expertise is expanding and highly regarded beyond the more traditional areas (p18).

The Actuary provides a platform for members of the profession, and those with an interest in the work we do, to share their views and opinions on a wide range of issues, in all areas of specialism. The results of the recent readership survey show that the magazine appears to meet most needs well, and there is more we can do (p30). Your input is instrumental to achieving rich content, and I look forward to hearing from you. There is every opportunity to have your say.

“I feel privileged to have this opportunity to serve members of my profession as editor of The Actuary”

Kelvin Chamunorwa Editor

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January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 10:11

Opinion Letters editor@theactuary.com

Solvency II as a catalyst for thought

Have your say online

More comments are posted online about news stories published on www.theactuary.com.

Science matters Brent Walker is a most distinguished actuary but his article, A force to be reckoned with (The Actuary, December 2013) includes a number of statements which I suggest undermine his own credibility and indeed our profession, should they come to the attention of a wider audience. His penultimate paragraph suggests the profession should be “seriously questioning the outcomes of unreliable climate models produced by scientists who, by and large, do not have an actuary’s ability to see the bigger risk picture”. Ignoring the tautological reference to “unreliable climate models”, Walker seems to be calling for us to question science on the basis of “big picture” judgment.

He then quotes from the January 2013 NASA report (bit.ly/nasaactuary): “Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem.”

In his view: “This sounds broadly similar to the diverse skills one has to acquire to become an actuary”.

I know the examinations have changed considerably since Walker and I both sat them, but I imagine students would have some cause to complain if particle physics or fluid dynamics made an appearance.

Incidentally, the impression I drew from the NASA report is that solar variability is not the cause of global warming over the last 50 years, although research is continuing on possible links. This is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) view but it is not the impression given by Walker.

The actuarial profession has a major role to play in assessing and advising on the financial implications of climate change and other environmental issues. To do this we must work with reputable, established scientific opinion. There are large areas of uncertainty, which we need to understand, and we can use our appreciation of risk.

Climate change is a global issue which naturally engenders political debate but this should not be about the consensus science but the implications and merits of different policies to adapt to or mitigate its effects.

Paul Meins, deputy chairman of the IFoA Resource and Environment Board 31 December

MORE LETTERS ONLINE More letters are available online at www.theactuary.com/opinion

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I attended the sessional meeting at Staple Inn on 4 November and the subsequent meeting on 25 November. Both meetings covered recent thinking on Solvency II, which I know has been a long running saga for the actuarial profession in the UK and the rest of Europe. It did strike me, after thinking about both meetings, that Solvency II has given the actuarial profession the impetus to think properly about a lot of tricky issues. Without the regulatory push would we have given time to research such topics as how to calculate best estimate technical provisions, and the linked benefit of consistent reporting of such a key number? Would we have reduced the gap between life and general insurance actuaries when thinking about the actuarial function? Would we have devoted such time to thinking about extreme risks versus day-to-day events and the subsequent implications for capital levels? Would actuarial independence have been given as much thought?

While Solvency II projects and programmes bring reporting requirements and scrutiny, which can be tedious, they have brought different parts of an insurance business together and enabled actuarial work to be subject to the disciplines of documentation and validation. This must mean there is an increase in professionalism in the insurance industry and in actuarial work in the industry.

Now that we have a firm date for Solvency II to go live, albeit with a period of transitional measures, perhaps the actuarial profession should take a moment to say thank you for being given such intellectual challenges. And perhaps we should also take some time to work out what challenges we are going to tackle in future.

Kathryn Morgan 18 December

USS pension possibilities The recent (October 24) Newsnight programme dealing with the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) gave a grossly misleading impression of the financial strength of the scheme. It quoted a current (June 2013) actuarial deficit in the scheme of £7.9bn. This figure is not very meaningful, as illustrated by the volatility of the deficit – it was as low as £2.9bn as at March 2011 and as high as £11.5bn as at March 2013.

The reason for the volatility is a mismatch between the assets held by the scheme (essentially equities) and the basis on which the liabilities are valued (based on the yield on gilts). Valuing the liabilities on a gilts basis is appropriate where there is a realistic possibility of a pension scheme being closed or wound up or where the employer’s covenant is less than cast-iron – which is the case for the vast majority of defined benefits pension schemes in the private sector.

However, the USS has a very positive cash flow, with a healthy influx of new entrants, and has a quasi-public sector status with a strong employers’ covenant and there is virtually no chance of the scheme being discontinued in the foreseeable future.

In these circumstances, the scheme should be viewed on a continuing basis, with assets being chosen to match the liabilities on an ongoing basis. The liabilities are broadly linked to economic growth and inflation. Over the long term, the returns on equities are also linked to economic growth and inflation.

It is therefore appropriate, in my view, to continue to invest predominantly in equities, notwithstanding the volatility arising in actuarial valuations where, for accounting and legislative reasons, the liabilities are assessed on a gilts basis. If it is desired to reduce volatility for funding purposes, this is best achieved by valuing the liabilities on a basis linked to equity yields, rather than, as suggested by a contributor in the Newsnight programme, changing the investment strategy to a fixed-interest basis.

Edward E Adam 2 November

The editor welcomes readers’ letters but reserves the right to edit them for publication. Please email editor@theactuary.com.

The deadline for receiving letters for the March issue is 19 February 2014.

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:21

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Opinion President’s comment

David Hare is the president of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

DAVID HARE

Soon is now My 11-year-old son, Iain, and I were discussing slogans recently and I set him a challenge – to come up with a motto for me.

His suggestion was “Soon is now!” and I think this fits me rather well. It is short, to the point and feels relevant. As I enter the final half of my term as president, it really encapsulates how I’m feeling.

There are two scheduled Council meetings in February and May, and as such I have very little time left to put forward matters for their consideration – I must act soon and not delay – “Soon is now”.

Last year I used these columns as an opportunity to consider the challenges we face and shared my view with you that the IFoA is at (or, at least, approaching) a crossroads; in a world that is changing fast.

How do we ensure that we continue to be relevant and respond to the changes that impact on actuaries and the work that we do? For example, are the main areas of our expertise in insurance moving from centre stage, to be replaced by analytics and more and more creative ways to deliver what customers want?

A similar situation has been happening in pensions for some time, but will the speed of change accelerate? Against this background, what must the IFoA and its members do to reflect that change and ensure that our potentially broad contribution remains relevant?

One of the developments that I am conscious could be significant is the new Certified Actuarial Analyst (CAA) qualification we will be rolling out this year, and which I believe may change the profession and its relevance in the global financial world. The CAA career path is likely to be different to that of a qualified fellow, with the potential to work in analyst roles across traditional and non-traditional sectors, like banking and investment.

Within Council, we are also continuing to consider the career path of the traditional actuary, and how it may be impacted by changes in employer resourcing strategies.

Over the coming months I hope to consult with other professions who can offer a different insight into the challenges of a changing world, and indeed may have found appropriate solutions. I will also be seeking

David Hare opens the new year with good intentions and a motto to encourage us all to hit the ground running in 2014 feedback from members and Council on these questions. Do get in touch. I will be pleased to hear your thoughts.

During my recent visit to Australia with Trevor Watkins, our Director of Education, we were invited to attend a meeting of the Actuaries Institute’s Council to discuss the challenges facing actuaries in Australia. We also met with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and employers of actuaries. They face similar issues to us, and the insights we picked up there will be fed back into our future strategy discussions.

I don’t know about you, but I find the start of the year is a good time to stop, reflect and commit to resolutions for the coming months. My resolutions include taking more exercise – in particular crosscountry running with Iain and playing more (and possibly better) golf! I’m sorry to say that I haven’t started yet – maybe “Soon is now!” applies to my New Year resolutions too.

With regards to the IFoA and the work that we do as actuaries, I would encourage all of us to adopt a (rather belated) New Year resolution to engage even more on the issues that are relevant to our employer,

clients and users and continue to develop our commercial skills. In a recent discussion with a planning director of a major life company, the view I heard was that the actuarial style could lead to a cautious and less profitable business model than a more commercial approach. As actuaries, we need to develop a reputation for ‘responsible commercialism’ – that recognises risks, but still finds opportunities that are worth taking.

Thus, I would encourage all of us to start this year with a question: “What can I do this year to help my career and the influence of my profession?”

There are probably many areas where we need to change others’ perceptions of us. This will take time, but the sooner we start – “Soon is now!”

I hope 2014 is a great year for you.

I’m certainly keen to give it my best shot – particularly the first six months, before I hand the president’s badge to Nick Salter.

That won’t be long in coming, so I need to make the most of the time and not miss opportunities to serve the profession through unnecessary delay.

Soon is now! a

“As actuaries we need to develop a reputation for ‘responsible commercialism’ – that recognises risks but still finds opportunities”

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY 7 www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:22

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Opinion Soapbox

DAVID CASALE

A lease of renewable life Investing people’s retirement savings is a mammoth responsibility for any pension fund.

The ideal for such investors is something that offers a long-term, secure investment that will beat inflation. With this in mind, pension fund investors across the UK are increasingly realising that renewable energy projects can offer all of these qualities, as well as environmental benefits.

Renewable energy projects, particularly solar photovoltaics, can offer a level of return that is unrivalled by most other interest-bearing products. For example, the average annual rate of interest amongst five of the top easy access savings accounts is 1.53% according to Savings Champion. When compared to the typical industry accepted annual return rate of 6-8% on renewable energy projects in the current market, it is clear why an increasing number of investors are being drawn to renewables.

The stability of returns is also an important factor and this remains fairly constant in the case of investment in renewable projects.

Despite common misconceptions that wind and sun-powered technologies are unreliable forms of energy, they are able to generate a reliable cash flow. Even in the UK, where the weather is particularly poor, the amount of sunlight and wind is generally predictable and any dips that occur are accounted for when assessing the initial feasibility of the project. Returns are kept stable and maintained by rising electricity prices and government subsidies.

Safe ground Renewable technologies are also able to offer a relatively low risk and dependable solution to investment in the long term. Financiers are sometimes focused on short-term rewards, which by and large offer little stability. However, pension funds have a much longer-term investment horizon. Most projects, particularly those involving wind and solar, have minimum output levels guaranteed for up to 20 years by the equipment manufacturers, with the majority outlasting their warranty. Minimal running costs keep the risks low, with the installation being the largest expenditure.

An innovative pension provider could supply an investor with a product where, rather than having to draw down on a pension or annuity to pay rising energy bills, they get a product that offers energy from the solar

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David Casale comments on the rise in the number of pension funds investing in renewable technologies project (domestic or utility scale) at a reduced rate, providing a higher net return. Project risk can be handled if the pool of assets is correctly sized and governed.

Renewable energy investments offer a return that is inflation-beating, in part due to the current feed-in-tariff (FiT), the governmentbacked subsidy that encourages the development of clean energy. As energy prices rise, developers receive more revenue from the electricity generated, with some of this money going back to investors.

However, as with any investment, there are associated risks and a number of variables to consider. Renewable energy project investments are long-term, which can tie up capital for significant periods of time and are relatively illiquid. As a result, they are not suitable for those looking to make a short-term return.

After the launch of the Electricity Market Reform delivery plan in December, there is also speculation as to the future of government subsidies for clean technologies and the possible impact on investor confidence this may have. The impact of the government’s contract-for-difference (CfD) on FiT may have a positive effect on clean technology finance.

Nevertheless, there is now a greater degree of certainty surrounding the changes and the

government cannot retrospectively pull the FiT or future CfD’s. The projects benefiting from subsidies will continue to do so for the duration of their developments. CfD contracts will also last for 15 years on renewable projects and, critically, payments will be indexed to inflation and have lower risk when considering intermittency issues.

Ultimately, renewable energy projects can offer a secure, long-term, and often inflation beating investment. Pension funds investing in renewable technology are placing their priority on a combination of returns, stability and sustainability.

Sustainable investment has many positive benefits and the industry is constantly producing innovative technology that offers solutions to the UK’s energy needs. At the same time, investors are becoming increasingly astute at differentiating between the risks involved in different types of deals. There is room for expansion within the sector, as currently only a small part of UK energy consumption is produced by renewable technologies, and this will provide opportunities for new, informed investors to enter the arena.

“Renewable energy investments offer a return that is inflationbeating, in part due to the current feed-in-tariff ”

David Casale is director at energy and environment merchant bank Turquoise International

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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DATE

Thursday 20 February Roller disco 6.30pm

SOCIAL EVENT

Time to get your dancing skates on again for a floor-filled night of Roller Disco. Fear not, there will also be plenty of food on hand to replenish your energy levels.

So whether you ‘move like Jagger’ or ‘Bambi on ice’, get yourself down to the SIAS Roller Disco and let your skates do the work.

SIAS members £12 Non-members £16 Email social@sias.org.uk to register Price includes skate hire, access to the skating arena, and refreshments.

Payments must be received by Friday 14 February 2014.

DATE

Tuesday 4 March, 5.30pm, Staple Inn Hall Solving Solvency: Staging the Aggregation of a Capital Model

presented by Matt Modisett

PROGRAMME EVENT

Capital models have grown large and complex, in particular those associated with Solvency II, but also many that are used for insurers’ independent capital assessments (ICAs). The talk discusses how staging the aggregation can ease the computational difficulties while increasing the usefulness of results, and is related to Dr. Modisett’s book, Solving Solvency: 100 Tips for Managing Insurance Capital in a Shifting Regulatory Landscape.

Refreshments will be served from 5.30pm and the talk will start at 6pm. There is no need to register in advance for this meeting and non-members are welcome.

DATE

Thu 20 Feb Tue 4 Mar Thu 20 Mar

UPCOMING EVENTS

Roller disco Programme talk Poker night

Tue 1 Apr

Programme talk

Tue 6 May

Programme talk

Thu 22 May Tue 3 Jun Thu 19 Jun

Mystery event Programme talk

Thu 3 Jul

Programme talk

Fri 25 Jul

Boat party

Tue 5 Aug Sat 30 Aug

Programme talk Sports tournament

Tue 2 Sep

Programme talk

Mon 13 Oct

Welcome drinks

Tue 21 Oct

Jubilee lecture

Thu 23 Oct

Pool tournament

Fri 21 Nov

Annual dinner

Tue 25 Nov

Programme talk

Tue 16 Dec

Programme talk

MORE EVENTS ONLINE For details of events, visit www.sias.org.uk

Calling all speakers! ers!

Bowling night The Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS) holds a series of talks throughout the year on a range of topics of interest and relevance to the actuarial community. Talks can cover traditional topics such as pensions, life assurance, general insurance, healthcare or investment. They can also cover more broad topics, non-technical subjects and ideas from outside the profession. This provides an opportunity for members to share ideas and discuss the ‘hot topics’ of the day. We particularly encourage younger members to consider writing a paper and presenting their ideas. If you are interested in speaking at an event in 2014, please email programme@sias.org.uk, with a brief summary of the subject on which you wish to speak.

SIAS IS ON TWITTER! Follow us on @SIAScommittee for latest news on meetings, socials and more!

SIAS IS ON FACEBOOK! Check out the SIAS Facebook page for photos from the latest social events

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:22

News IFoA NEWS UPDATES FROM THE ACTUARIAL PROFESSION

Upfront Opinion CEO’s comment

Beijing finalé for 2013 visits

Derek Cribb examines the now very tangible benefits of the IFoA’s public affairs strategy

David Hare, president of the IFoA and Trevor Watkins, director of education, attended a joint IFoA, and Sunshine Life Insurance event in Beijing on 4 December.

More than 30 local IFoA members, the Sunshine Life actuarial team, and academics attended the event. Hare gave a presentation looking at own risk and solvency assessment (ORSA). He outlined progress with Solvency II and the implementation of the ORSA process in the UK and Europe.

The deputy director of the solvency regulation department of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), Dr Zhao Yu Long, then gave a vivid talk on China’s second-generation regulatory regime, China-Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS). He also stressed how important it was for the new system to be mature and advanced from a global perspective.

Public affairs policy pays off Derek Cribb is the chief executive of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

I’m often asked why the Institute and

Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) has invested in building a public affairs team: what are the tangible benefits of our strategy? Let me take you on a canter through one very live case study.

As I write this, I am about to travel to India as part of the Lord Mayor of London’s delegation, which aims to promote the City of London and UK business. Facilitated by the Worshipful Company of Actuaries, we have developed excellent relationships with the Lord Mayor’s office and were invited to help shape the agenda for her visit to India. As a result, the trip is focusing largely on the local insurance industry and the wider financial services sector – highly relevant with the imminent introduction of the certified actuarial analyst (CAA) accreditation.

In partnership, we secured a speaking slot for the Lord Mayor at the Indian Rendezvous conference, a major gathering of insurance professionals across Asia and beyond, at which she will showcase the innovation coming out of the IFoA and how it is relevant to the global markets in which actuaries work. The conference will also enable us to engage directly with the leaders of the region’s major employers of actuaries.

Our public affairs strategy is not just about the IFoA but about promoting actuaries around the world. As such, we will be introducing the Lord Mayor to colleagues at the Institute of Actuaries of India (IAI).

So, the tangible benefits? The CAA qualification supports our charter objectives and, thanks to our public affairs work, we have secured great opportunities to promote it and the other work that our members undertake.

We have achieved a great opportunity at the Indian Rendezvous and, through our relationship with the IAI, we have been invited to be a primary sponsor of the Global Conference of Actuaries in Mumbai this month. These are the largest gatherings of actuarial employers and candidates in the region. As well as helping the IFoA to demonstrate its relevance and reinforce its global reputation, our public affairs work has gained us introductions to employers, policymakers and regulators. Working alone, we simply would not have had access to these.

New home for IFoA As you may be aware, the IFoA’s London office has a new home – the 7th floor of Holborn Gate, 326-330 High Holborn, WC1V 7PP. Telephone numbers and email addresses are the same, so normal service remains.

The members’ lounge at Holborn Gate holds relocated library resources, four study desks, three private booths, open tables for group work, plus tea- and coffee-making facilities. Historical collections and archives are secure at Staple Inn pending a review of accommodation options. Contact libraries@ actuaries.org.uk to view.

Members based in Edinburgh have use of the library at Maclaurin House.

DEREK CRIBB

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THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:24

Gaining Momentum You’re hired! Nick Hewer’s take on the Momentum conference delegates

“Who would have thought the young crowd at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries conference would be such an amusing bunch? And smart.” @NickHewer A great way to sum up the fantastic Momentum Conference 2013 from after-dinner speaker Nick Hewer, of The Apprentice fame. His speech took delegates behind the scenes of the popular TV show, delving into his relationship with ‘the boss’, Lord Alan Sugar, and was followed by a casino night and piano bar that continued well into the early hours.

The business-end of the conference was just as eclectic, with a mix of technical and soft skills workshops to encourage nearly and newly qualified actuaries to speak out, challenge the ordinary and try new things.

We kicked off the conference with a ‘Yes you can’ session, provoking ideas on how to remain focused throughout periods of change. A further highlight was a session by Don Mango, vice chairman of enterprise analytics at Guy Carpenter, on ‘The future of actuarial science’ and how to seize opportunities and leverage our strengths.

To close the conference, we invited Steve Allan, Simon Grout and Scott Mitchell to share their experiences as actuaries working abroad.

An informed view of Scottish independence

By Martin Potter, Scottish Board leader On 18 September 2014, the Scottish electorate will be asked “Should Scotland be an independent country?”. As actuarial professionals working in financial services – in Scotland, the rest of the UK or overseas – we should be taking note of this debate.

Putting aside the implications for European politics and the precedent that a ‘yes’ vote could have, the likelihood is that, regardless of the outcome, there will be change. At present, opinion polls suggest a ‘no’ vote, following which the Scottish government will surely try to gain further powers from Westminster in areas such as taxation and welfare. However, just a few months prior to the last Scottish elections, the opinion polls suggested a victory for Labour, yet the result was a thumping victory for the Scottish National Party (SNP). A ‘yes’ vote in September would result in substantial changes as Scotland gets to grips with just what it means to be independent. The effect on financial services and the working lives of actuaries in Scotland and throughout the UK and overseas would be considerable.

For this reason, the IFoA has spent the past year engaging with all sides of the debate: the ‘yes’ campaign, the ‘no’ campaign, Westminster and Holyrood. Just over a year ago, the Scottish Board and the Public Affairs and Consultations Committee agreed that IFoA policy should be neutral on the question of the referendum. A working party, which I chair, was established to look at the issues raised by the debate for our profession. We produced lists of questions on a

DEBBIE ROWE / SHUTTERSTOCK

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wide range of financial matters and presented these at member events in Edinburgh and London. Interestingly, the feedback from members was overwhelmingly in favour of stronger engagement by the IFoA in this debate.

We responded with a follow-up paper in October 2013, ‘Commentary on the key challenges facing an independent Scotland within financial services’, which generated a significant level of national and regional media coverage.

Our engagement has also had a beneficial effect on our public affairs programme. We have received positive feedback on our involvement from representatives of both the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ campaigns and from other organisations, all of whom recognise the IFoA’s politically neutral position. When I spoke to him on the phone late last year, the Secretary of State for Scotland said “the IFoA’s approach is a model that others can follow”.

We will continue to meet stakeholders and scrutinise materials published by all sides. Our aim is to make sure that the issues affecting financial services and our profession get the attention they deserve. For this reason, the IFoA is co-sponsoring a series of seminars by the David Hume Institute, held in January and

February 2014, with speakers from all the major political parties. On 20 March at The Hub, Edinburgh, the IFoA is hosting a Question Time-style debate that asks ‘What are the implications of Scottish independence for the financial services sector?’ This debate will be chaired by Bill Jamieson, former executive editor of The Scotsman, and speakers will include Alistair Darling MP, Alistair Carmichael MP, Secretary of State for Scotland, and John Swinney MSP, cabinet secretary for finance, employment and sustainable growth. This high-profile event will be open to members and non-members and offers the chance to question our panel and contribute to the debate.

To my mind, there are many major questions. What might the economy of an independent Scotland look like? Will it stay in the EU? How would taxation change? What kind of financial markets would exist and how would the Scottish government support them?

What cross-border arrangements would need to operate for financial services between Scotland and the UK? What aspects could remain shared between the two countries? How would independence affect the person in the street?

Our debate on 20 March promises to be an engaging evening that feeds into further engagement work by the IFoA. I look forward to seeing many of you there.

To book your free place, email eventmanagement@actuaries.org.uk To learn more about the IFoA’s engagement in the Scottish debate, visit www.actuaries. org.uk/members/pages/scottish-board

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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News IFoA NEWS UPDATES FROM THE IFOA

Active start for General Insurance Board

By Michael Tripp The General Insurance Board’s aims are to generate a sense of community among everyone working in general insurance, to ensure continuing professional development (CPD) and education meet requirements, to establish and maintain professional standards, take part in consultations and actively engage in public affairs and to make sure that suitable conferences and research move the profession’s involvement in general insurance forward.

In general insurance, we are still relatively young – it is only 40 years since the first GIRO conference, compared with over 150 years of operation in pensions or life – but over the past 10 years we have matured. We like the energy and spontaneity that GIRO brings and we don’t want to lose the sparkle of contribution, but we also have to recognise that, with over 2,000 members, we are not babes in arms and that structure with focus needs constant attention.

We have an established set of professional standards, but these need constant review, and one of our thrusts is assisting the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) with a systematic review of risks to the public interest. This should eventually recycle back and help us further refine these standards and understand what the public should expect of us. There is much ongoing work on consultations, including those on motor personal injury reforms, responding to organisations ranging from the Ministry of Justice to the Transport Select Committee, and importantly about the

GI Board deputy chair Michael Tripp

role of the actuarial function holder and, of course, wider Solvency II questions. Solvency II leads into discussion with the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and the Actuarial Association of Europe, where the changing legal landscape may affect how much guidance the UK regulator wishes to give alongside the EU directives.

We have a great heritage in terms of conferences, and GIRO, having had well over 700 attendees this year, remains the jewel in our crown. But we can’t take this for granted, so along with a number of seminars to help CPD, we are always looking at how to take member engagement forward and ensure that thought leadership continues. As part of this, the GI Board is undertaking a survey of its members. It will be interesting to see if members generally agree with our research priorities and whether

they feel really involved. The research topics (there are 80 or so of them) cover capital/risk, rating/underwriting, reserving/claims, reinsurance and are a mix of the broad and the narrow – we need more volunteers as well as clear prioritisation.

Talking of capital and risk leads to another challenge – making sure that links with other practice areas (particularly, in our case, risk and resource/environment) are really alive. Clearly, we have much to do when it comes to thinking about risk, solvency II and new accounting standards, but this also applies to our foundation subjects – reserving (General Insurance Reserving Oversight Committee) and premium rating. All need guidance and resourcing.

We maintain good contacts with our friends at the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), and are trying to ensure international reach – both via Lloyds and the London market (the London Market Actuaries’ Group) and directly via representatives around the world.

Of course, we never lose sight of our oversight responsibility in the education sphere. We aim to make sure that the student material and exams are fit for purpose in providing tomorrow’s actuaries and making sure that they are ready to add value in an ever competitive and technically challenging marketplace.

So our challenge for 2014 is to maintain the above – but in a way that balances our sense of freshness with continuity, that keeps our sparkle but with structure, and that ensures the right mix of the new with the long established.

Does disaster protection always pay off ?

Is financial protection against disasters worth it for developing countries? Find out how actuaries are helping to answer this question at a sessional research event in London on 24 March.

The problem The frequency and severity of humanitarian disasters is expected to continue to grow in the coming years – and at an accelerated pace.

The impact of a disaster spreads far and wide, particularly in developing countries, where financial markets and social safety net systems are less developed.

Traditional mechanisms for risk management for the poorest, such as selling assets at firesale prices, limiting caloric intake, and taking

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children out of school, can have long-term consequences for livelihoods and economic growth.

The governments of developing countries recognise that they have a responsibility to prepare for potential disasters, but are increasingly asking questions such as: Do governments get the most value for money investing in disaster risk reduction or financial protection? How should governments decide what their roles post-disaster should be, and therefore what their contingent liability to disasters is? What are the financial costs of preparing to do more in the aftermath of a disaster relative to the humanitarian and economic benefits of this?

What are actuaries doing to help answer these questions?

The UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) have assembled a team of actuaries, general insurance specialists and academics for a three-year project to better understand the impact and efficiency of various financial protection strategies.

With the support of the IFoA research team, an event will be held on 24 March to introduce the project to members and explain how actuaries are working to enhance the way disasters are financed across the world. The event will bring together

specialists from development economics, public finance, microeconomics, macroeconomics and disaster risk modelling and will explain why the problem is fundamentally actuarial, how it is being approached, and what the findings from the conceptual phase of the project were.

The event will include opening remarks from Stefan Dercon, chief economist of DFID, co-chairs from the UK’s Government Actuary’s Department and the World Bank, and a panel of actuaries and academics involved in the project.

To register for the event or to find out more, visit: bit.ly/1drysed To speak to one of the project team, contact rpoulter@ worldbank.org

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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EVENTS AND CONFERENCES

Scotland’s mathletes benefit from IFoA support Scotland’s brightest maths students faced some tough challenges and were offered useful insights thanks to the support of the IFoA. Two events sponsored in the last quarter of 2013 helped to encourage students to use their mathematical skills in higher education and follow career paths that will use their talents.

The Highlands and Islands Challenge is a weekend boot camp where 16- and 17-year-olds learn how to apply advanced mathematics to real-life problems and, in so doing, how mathematics can open up job opportunities. Organised by the Highland Council, the weekend offers a rare chance to mix with other bright maths students, an opportunity that few have before attending university.

Lecturers at the event included: Suzanne Vaughan from the IFoA, Professor Adam McBride, OBE, former head of mathematics at Strathclyde University, and Professor Miles Padgett, head of physics at Glasgow University.

The Enterprising Maths challenge is aimed at 12- to 15-year-olds and pits school teams against each other. This year, 56 schools and 250 students took part and the challenge was held at the Science Museum in Glasgow. The winning teams were from Boroughmuir High School, Cumbernauld High School, the Edinburgh Academy and Speyside High School.

In a tough economic environment, the IFoA is proud to continue to sponsor these events; without our support they would not happen.

Meeting members’ needs On 20 November 2013, the IFoA held its annual briefing for continuing professional development (CPD) co-ordinators. More than 80 delegates from over 60 organisations attended the event. The theme of this year’s briefing was ‘Ramping up our relevance: ensuring we meet members’ varied and evolving needs’.

Cath Bryson, head of membership at the IFoA, will be known to many members. She retires this month after over 30 years of service and was presented with a bouquet of flowers as a thank you from everyone at the event.

IFoA recommendation: Organisations that employ at least three qualified actuaries are encouraged to appoint a CPD co-ordinator. If you would like to check whether your organisation has appointed a CPD co-ordinator or to find out more, contact debbie.atkins@ actuaries.org.uk

Sessional Research Event: Extending the Critical Path.

A report from the Critical Illness Definitions and Geographical Variations Working Party

Highlights of Life Seminars 11 March London 26 March Bristol bit.ly/1c6Ok5S

17 February, Edinburgh

2 April Dublin

16.30 to 19.00 Critical illness cover is a mainstay of the UK health insurance marketplace. Credible insured experience continues to emerge for the major conditions, but this does not help us to understand the minor conditions, changes in definitions over time or socioeconomic variations in experience. Members of the Critical Illness Definitions and Geographical Variations Working Party will present the analysis of a dataset of seriatim NHS hospital records.

For more information, visit: bit.ly/1euSGSD

Further details to follow The IFoA is holding this one day seminar to showcase the highlights of the Life Conference 2013. The seminar will cover a range of topics in areas such as product development, profit reporting and risk management.

There will also be talks on enhancing your wider skills set and professional skills for experienced members. It is primarily targeted at qualified life actuaries who were unable to attend the conference in Edinburgh or who did not attend all their preferred sessions.

bit.ly/1c6Ok5S

SAVE THE DATE Current Issues in Pensions seminars

For further information, visit: bit.ly/1a6sznM

13 March Bristol 25 March London 3 April Manchester 10 April Edinburgh

Pensions Conference 2014 18-20 June

Health and Care Conference 2014

Radisson Blu Edwardian Heathrow Hotel For further information, visit: bit.ly/1gJvZvn

21-23 May

Life Conference 2014

Radisson Blu Edwardian Heathrow Hotel For further information, visit: bit.ly/1iTAViJ

9-11 November Birmingham Call for speakers now open.

Please submit your proposals by 14 March 2014. bit.ly/1iqhmRO

Risk and Investment Conference 2014 1-3 June Hilton Glasgow Hotel

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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If you have any newsworthy items for these pages please email social@theactuary.com

News People & Society

Philanthropy – never been

By Charles Cowling Our society faces many challenges. The recent economic woes have increased the divide between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’. Francis Bacon’s words “I hold every man a debtor to his profession” have been a familiar motto for actuaries for 150 years. But perhaps today they need a broad interpretation.

As actuaries we have been fortunate to earn a comfortable living from society.

Maybe there is a duty on us to give something back.

1 million 900 k 800 k 700 k 600 k 500 k 400 k 300 k 200 k 100 k

Many actuaries already give a huge amount back – not only financially, but also in time and expertise. As Master of the Worshipful Company of Actuaries I see, and am humbled by, the immense amount of good work that actuaries across the country do to help others.

Each year we present the Phiatus Award for outstanding contribution to charitable work. The last two winners of this award, Ella Spencer (for her fabulous work with Gambia Up Country) and Ronnie Sloan (for

many years of magnificent fundraising), are just two great examples of the charitable work of actuaries.

Three years ago the Worshipful Company of Actuaries and The Actuary launched a challenge to actuaries to raise £1 million for charity. Today we are almost there.

If you have a charity fundraising story please share it with The Actuary at social@theactuary. com. If you would like to nominate someone for the 2014 Phiatus Award please email me at Charles_Cowling@JLTGroup.com stating the person you wish to nominate and your reasons.

SA actuarial ConneXion The SAAX Group, a member interest group for Southern African actuaries, held a festive end of year drinks and networking evening at Staple Inn Hall on 5 December 2013.

The event was attended by 40 SAAX members and provided an opportunity to say farewell to outgoing SAAX group chairperson, Marjorie Ngwenya (above), and to hear from outgoing committee member Kelvin Chamunorwa on his appointment as the new editor of The Actuary. The evening served as the SAAX Group AGM and five new committee members were welcomed, including chairperson, Gary Finkelstein, of RGA. The first SAAX event of 2014 is a careerfocused evening with Mark Goodale, CEO of Reliance Mutual. It will be held in London on Wednesday 26 February 2014.

Email the SAAX Group at contact@saaxgroup.org

Well done to Andrew O’Brien, who is now over halfway through his challenge to run 12 marathons in 12 months to raise money for The ISIS Foundation. Following the New York marathon (The Actuary, December 2013), Andrew moved to Singapore where he ran his toughest marathon so far. He said “I’m not sure whether this was down to the jet lag, the 92% humidity or general wear and tear. This was a challenging race destined to test my mettle and mental fortitude.”

Andrew’s eighth marathon was in Bermuda on 19 January.

To support him, visit www.justgiving.com/ISIS12in12 For updates, visit www.12in12forisis.com

Obituary: John Colls John Colls died aged 69 on 12 December 2013 in Melbourne, Australia. A Yorkshireman, he began his actuarial career in Edinburgh with Scottish Provident in 1967, and qualified as an FFA in 1972.

While in Scotland, he conquered all the Munros (the 257th to do so) and invigorated orienteering by establishing the annual Scottish Six Day Event.

John and his wife Sheila, an actuarial student, emigrated to Melbourne in 1981 where John joined WM Mercer, and was subsequently appointed a principal of the firm. During a successful business career, he maintained a strong connection with Scottish orienteering and journeyed around the world. He attempted to

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climb Mt Vinson in Antarctica, but bad weather left him with a dilemma – should he abandon the attempt or be two weeks late returning to the office? Reluctantly, he put the interests of the office first! In his retirement, John travelled widely between Melbourne and his Scottish home in Beauly, using container ships or the trans-Siberian railway as appropriate – and organised orienteering events in both countries.

Sadly, his energetic life was ultimately frustrated by the condition of amyloidosis in 2013. He leaves Sheila (who qualified as an FIAA in 1990), his growing family, and the world of orienteering with great memories of a remarkable man.

Deaths Nicholas DAY, died recently, aged 70. He became a Fellow of the Institute in 1971.

Michael BURNS died recently, aged 88. He became a Fellow of the Institute in 1955.

Roy GILLSON died recently, aged 61. He was an actuarial student.

Michael NICHOLS died recently, aged 77. He became a Fellow of the Institute in 1999.

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Like The Actuary on Facebook

Follow @TheActuaryMag on Twitter

Join The Actuary’s LinkedIn group

more necessary If you want to find out more about the Worshipful Company of Actuaries and our charitable work, please contact

Rodney Jagelman at Rodney.Jagelman@ LawDeb.co.uk.

It would be inappropriate of me to exhort others to philanthropic activity without stepping forward myself. So I have joined a small group of elite athletes (not a description that fits me) and agreed to run in the ‘Brathay 10in10’ – 10 marathons in 10

days around a demanding Lake District course.

As I have only ever run one marathon (and am no longer in the prime of youth) this may seem foolish. But I am keen to support the fantastic work the Brathay Trust (www.brathay.org.uk) does for vulnerable children, along with the Company of Actuaries Charitable Trust.

This is going to be tough, but with your support it will be easier and if you are minded to support a charity this one is really worthwhile.

Donations to www.virginmoneygiving.com/ CharlesCowling will be gratefully received

The Other Half Club – the first quarter century

By Jacky Pendleton

SIAS workshops

By Katie Crook Would you like to help young inner-city school pupils to develop essential skills that are invaluable in the working world and transfer your knowledge of the actuarial profession?

One of the aims of the charity subcommittee of SIAS is to support school pupils by increasing awareness of the actuarial profession, while aiding their development and progression into the world of work. Previously, we have taken a hands-off approach to achieving this aim by sponsoring academic research. Now we are adopting a more direct approach by partnering with The Brokerage Citylink to provide ‘introduction to being an actuary’ sessions to sixth form students from inner-city London schools.

The Brokerage Citylink is an independent charity providing young people in London with a pathway of opportunities into employment.

Their vision is that all young Londoners, regardless of background, will have the skills,

Marriage Congratulations to Stephen Deverell-Smith (Barnett Waddingham) and Kathleen Jennings (Towers Watson) who were married on 27 October 2013 in Nunsmere Hall, Nantwich.

understanding and confidence to make the most of the career opportunities in the City. By working together we can support their aims while helping to promote the actuarial profession and the benefits that a career as an actuary can present.

We will be running half-day workshops at Staple Inn in 2014, which will involve presenting to the students on actuarial experiences, followed by a business game that gives the students a taste of the day-to-day challenges faced by actuaries. The previous workshop was a huge success receiving positive feedback from the 22 young mathematicians attending, from eight different schools.

This is an excellent opportunity for actuaries to volunteer and hone their presentation skills while at the same time giving something back to the community.

If you are interested in helping out at one of the upcoming workshops, please email Mark and Katie at charities@sias.org.uk

Birth Congratulations to Aman Aujla (Xafinity) and her husband Sukh on the birth of their daughter Megan on 14 November 2013.

Big sister Deeyan is besotted.

Twenty-five years old! In 1988 a group of ‘other halves’ at a Fellowship Club cocktail party thought that they would like to organise occasional meetings on the evenings that their husbands or partners were at Club or Institute meetings and dinners and so the Other Half Club was born.

During those 25 years members have made good friends, enjoyed great dinners, outings and events, and met up at many Actuarial Congresses.

The first event was at Amandini’s restaurant in Sicilian Avenue. Following that the club has dined regularly at Le Café du Marche in the City – close to Barbican tube station – where they continue to have a private room and the full attention of staff who view us as favoured and long-standing customers. Of those ‘founding’ members some half a dozen still attend dinners and functions regularly and many attended an anniversary dinner in November.

The programme for 2014 includes visiting the Ice Sculpting Festival in London, two dinners including a visit to the Old Bailey, three lunches including a matinee to see War Horse, a guided walked around Smithfield Market and the surrounding area and a visit to the Guildhall School of Music & Drama to see a production.

Over the years there have been a series of volunteers to undertake the roles of chairman and secretary, currently Jacky Pendleton and Lesley Birse respectively. New members to the club are very welcome – the only entry criterion is that you are the ‘other half’ of an actuary, either still working or retired.

For further information on the club or to join: email theotherhalfclub@gmail.com or phone Jacky on 07768 200539 or Lesley on 01689 836392

We would be delighted to hear from you if you have any newsworthy items for these pages. Please contact Yvonne Wan at social@theactuary.com

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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› GENERAL INSURANCE

NEWS ROUND-UP

ABI and government agree to co-operate on long-term care insurance

Surge in popularity of telematic motor insurance The number of live telematic motor insurance policies in the UK increased by around 60% between 2012 and 2013, according to research from the British Insurance Brokers’ Association.

BIBA estimated that the uptake of the behaviour-based motor insurance telematics boxes and smart phone apps rose by 116,000 over the period. In 2013, there were 296,000 live policies, up from 180,000 in 2012. The number of telematic providers also increased from 10 in 2012 to 15 in 2013.

Graeme Trudgill, BIBA’s executive director, said: “Overall there are over 30 million vehicles on the road and so far we’ve only got about 300,000 telematic policies so in the ocean of motor insurance this is a small drop in the water. However, it is growing year-on-year.”

BIBA said the behaviour-based policy could offer savings on motor insurance of around 25% with some young drivers being able to save up to £1,000 a year at the top end. Agreeing that there is “definitely an upward trend” in the popularity of telematics, Neil Chapman, senior consultant at Towers Watson, told The Actuary: “We see telematics as a key item on companies’ agenda for 2014 and expect the growth in polices to continue.” He noted that the implementation of the EU Gender Directive, which prohibited insurers from basing prices on gender, could have been the factor in the increase in 2013.

See more at: bit.ly/1eiLbfX

Business interruption tops Allianz’s corporate risk poll Interruption to business and supply chain losses have been ranked as the top business risk for 2014 following a poll of corporate insurance experts. According to the third annual Allianz Risk Barometer natural catastrophes, such as storms, floods and earthquakes, were the second biggest risk and the third was fire and explosion.

There were two new entrants to the top 10: cyber crime, IT failure and espionage, and theft, fraud and corruption. Reputational damage had also risen up the risk ranking, moving up from 10th place to sixth.

15% of the survey’s respondents named reputational damage – from, for example, social media – as a top-three risk.

Commenting on the findings, Axel Theis, chief executive of Allianz’s global corporate and speciality team, said: “Identifying the impact of interconnectivity between different risks is a top priority for risk managers. Today’s business continuity plans must prepare for an increasing range of risk scenarios which need to reflect the sometimes hidden knock-on effects.”

See more at: bit.ly/19RMR42

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Plans to further develop the UK care insurance market have been agreed by the Association of British Insurers and the government.

At a Social Care Summit, the ABI and the Department of Health issued a joint statement of intent, pledging to “help people get the information and regulated advice they need to plan and make decisions, and create the right conditions for a larger market of financial products which will give people more choice.”

The ABI noted that the market for long-term care insurance is currently limited, but should adapt as the number of consumers looking for such products grow.

Otto Thoresen, the ABI’s director general, said he expected the insurance industry to play an important role in developing solutions to help people fund their long-term care needs.

Commenting on the joint statement, Jules Constantinou of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, welcomed the “sensible coordination” between government and the insurance industry.

But he added: “It should be noted that the new cap on care charges will not work as a cost limit in the way that people might expect. The cap will apply to ‘care’, not to residency or any topup care costs. As such it does not represent an absolute payment ‘stop’ point, rather it limits some elements of the costs that individuals and their families will face.”

See more at: bit.ly/M2JoFu

LARGE LOSSES

$1.6bn Cost to insurers of December windstorms Storms, Europe and North America The windstorms that hit Europe in December caused insured losses of $1.6bn, Impact Forecasting said in its monthly global catastrophe report.

Europe was affected by a series of storms, chiefly Xaver and Dirk, which produced insured losses of $1.1bn and $500m respectively, while economic losses could be at least $2.25bn, the report said.

Scotland, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia, and Poland were the most badly hit by Xaver, which followed approximately five weeks after St Jude battered northern Europe.

Damage from windstorm Dirk, which hit the UK on 23 December, was greatest in the UK, France, Spain and Poland, with parts of Scandinavia also affected.

Other parts of the world were also affected by bad weather last month. In North America, a broad storm system swept across the entire US, killing at least 18 people and resulting in total economic losses in excess of $100m. Impact Forecasting said insured losses in Texas alone were listed at $30m.

Another major storm brought heavy snow, rain and ice to the central and eastern US as well as eastern Canada, killing 29 people.

See more at: bit.ly/1aRdqSg

MORE GI NEWS ONLINE For further GI news, visit www.theactuary.com/news/

REX

28/01/2014 09:25

News Industry news@theactuary.com

Webb confirms DC charge cap delay Pensions minister Steve Webb has confirmed that the charge cap for defined contribution schemes will be delayed until at least April 2015.

Speaking at a CBI pensions conference, Webb said a single package of reforms to quality standards for DC scheme governance and transparency would come into effect 12 months later than planned.

Webb said: “We did a consultation and there was a view that changing the rules at 12 weeks’ notice for something that requires people to do in 12 months didn’t quite stack up. I think that’s a fair point. That is why the changes that we will make will [take effect in] April 2015. So the changes to scheme quality, charges, governance and transparency... will apply to firms who stage from April 2015.”

The Department for Work and Pensions’ October 2013 consultation proposed three possible capping regimes: 1% of funds under management; a lower charge cap of 0.75% of funds under management; and a two-tier ‘comply or explain’ cap. It suggested that the cap take effect in April this year, but many in the pensions industry said the government’s timescale was far too restricted.

Webb said claims that the delay was a U-turn on improving DC standards were all “nonsense”.

But he refused to reveal details of a potential charge limit and wider reforms, saying they would be published in due course.

For more on this story, visit bit.ly/M2Vv5o

Pensions Institute predicts ‘bloody battle’ to manage auto-enrolment funds Auto-enrolment will see the value of the defined contribution pensions market grow more than six-fold by 2030, triggering a ‘bloody battle’ for market share, the Pensions Institute said.

In a report taking a long-term look at the impact of auto-enrolment, the institute predicted that assets under management would increase from £276bn in 2012 to £1.7 trillion by 2030.

This huge market growth was likely to provoke fierce competition between providers, resulting in just five or six multi-employer schemes operating by the end of the decade. The future for many employee benefit consultants and corporate advisers currently in the market was “uncertain”, the institute said.

Its report predicted a “wholesale shift” from single-employer schemes to multi-employer arrangements, once employers remove their defined benefit liabilities from the balance sheet and can begin dismantling the DB trustee infrastructure.

Debbie Harrison, visiting professor at the Pensions Institute, said: “The stakes are high and the battle to secure market share between now and 2018 is going to be bloody. The government and regulators must ensure that in a market where competition is weak, due to the lack of expertise of smaller employers, the schemes that emerge as victors do so because they offer genuine member value for money. Otherwise there is a danger that deep pockets, predatory pricing and conflicts of interest might become the hallmark of the dominant auto-enrolment schemes.”

For more on this story, visit bit.ly/1eiTCYP

MORE BREAKING NEWS ONLINE Visit www.theactuary.com for up-to-date news and to register for weekly news alerts

PM promises ‘triple-lock’ on state pension increases Prime Minister David Cameron has pledged to continue to increase the state pension by at least 2.5% a year until 2020 if the Conservatives win the next election.

The so-called ‘triplelock’ system means state pensions rise by whichever of annual earnings growth, inflation or a 2.5% baseline is highest. bit.ly/1d0uTr0

Employers fear actuary ‘brain drain’ More than a third of employers in the insurance and actuarial sectors fear they could lose talented individuals as the UK job market begins to recover, according to a survey by recruiters Reed. It found almost a quarter (23%) of people working in these sectors said they were looking to move jobs, citing static pay and reduced benefits. bit.ly/1d0uRzq

Make pension saving compulsory says think-tank People should not be allowed to opt out of auto-enrolled pensions, Policy Exchange has recommended, warning that 11 million Britons are facing poverty in retirement. The think-tank argued that building up a pension pot should be a civic obligation equivalent to paying taxes and proposed a compulsory ‘Help to Save’ scheme. bit.ly/19RQ97j

PPF delays publication of new risk score model The Pension Protection Fund has delayed publication of its new model for calculating sponsor insolvency risk scores, which play a major role in determining the levy defined benefit schemes pay in to the PPF. These scores are currently provided by Dun & Bradstreet but Experian will calculate the scores for the 2015/16 levy.

The PPF had intended to make an announcement about the new model by the end of 2013, but development work has “taken longer than originally anticipated”. This means levy payers will not be able to see their new scores in early 2014 as was originally intended.

“We are making steady progress with Experian but want to make sure that any new model we consult on is robust and fit-forpurpose,” the PPF said.

Nick Griggs, a partner at actuaries Barnett Waddingham, said it was important that the replacement for the Dun & Bradstreet scores was a better fit for the requirements of the PPF levy calculation.

“The PPF appears to be aware of levy payers’ concerns and it is encouraging that it has indicated that extra flexibility will be offered during the transition period to allow holes in Experian’s data to be rectified and presumably score corrections to be backdated if necessary.”

For more on this story, visit bit.ly/1aOHUXX

Popularity of ABC structures set to continue Asset-backed contributions for defined benefit pension schemes grew by nearly £2bn in 2013 and this rate of implementation is likely to increase in 2014, according to a KPMG survey.

Its Asset-backed funding survey found that the total value of ABC transactions grew to over £7bn. A total of 23 ABCs were made in 2013, nearly doubling the number in the market.

David Fripp, pension partner at KPMG in the UK, said: “Growth in the use of ABCs during 2013 was largely driven by challenging market conditions over recent years. These conditions have persisted into 2014, and we’re finding that increasing numbers of companies and trustees are turning to ABCs to fund part or all of their deficits.”

The firm said it expected to see a continued uplift in ABCs because of pressure for companies to fund large deficits as quickly as possible as well as the peace of mind and security an ABC can bring.

For more on this story, visit bit.ly/KT78v0

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:26

On my agenda features@theactuary.com

The

evolving

actuary Nick Silver started out as a traditional actuary, but now focuses on helping developing countries and promoting green investments. He talks to Kelvin Chamunorwa about working for the public good

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THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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I arrive somewhat intrigued at the address Nick Silver had referred to as “my office”: a private members’ business club in the heart of the West End of London. It later turns out that this is where the influential actuary prefers to work and host business meetings when he is in town.

I can see why the club provides a conducive working environment – its secluded location, colourful furnishings and flood of natural light give it a calm and convivial aura – much like my impression of Silver himself.

Being an actuary and an economist, Silver’s CV is not typical. He is managing director of Callund Consulting, where he advises developing countries on pension and social security policy, and co-founder of Climate Bonds, providing institutional investors with access to ‘green’ investments for either hedging or speculative purposes.

Silver is also a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and Cass Business School, a member of Council of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and a member of the IFoA’s Resource and Environment Group, which he has previously chaired.

I look on while The Actuary’s photographer takes snaps of Silver before we began the interview. He engages the photographer throughout the shoot, questioning him on lighting, colour balance, profile and other photographic aspects. Silver’s questions are far from self-centred – his

SAM KESTEVEN

28/01/2014 09:26

inquisitive nature seems to come from a genuine desire to expand his knowledge. This characteristic is confirmed as we speak about his wide-ranging experiences and how they have evolved over time.

Silver tongue Silver started his working career in 1991 as an actuarial consultant with Punter Southall then PwC in London, specialising in UK private sector pension schemes. He qualified as a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries in 1995.

So how did the transition to international and green issues come about? He responds by explaining his personal motivation. “What gives me meaning is working for the public good,” he says.

He goes on to describe the steps he took to start advising governments and other public bodies on the reform of their pension and social security policy. In 2002, he embarked on a Masters’ degree in Public Finance Policy at the London School of Economics. Silver recalls: “After graduating in mid-2003 I pursued David Callund, chairman of Callund Consulting at the time, in a bid to get involved with international public sector consulting work.”

It took a while, but eventually Silver’s persistence paid off when he was assigned to his first project in Bosnia and Herzegovina in late 2003 and has been at Callund Consulting ever since. Silver views this role as his “bread and butter”.

“He explains his personal motivation of working directly to benefit society, saying, ‘What gives me meaning is working for the public good’”

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On my agenda features@theactuary.com

The way Silver got involved with public policy is in contrast to how he developed his work on climate change, which started with a voluntary role for the IFoA. In 2004 he joined the Resource and Environment member interest group. As one of the initial members of the group at a time when climate change was only just emerging into the public eye, Silver had the opportunity to build a network within the industry. He was one of only a few actuaries involved at the time and was often invited to speak at conferences. Perhaps inevitably, he began securing consultancy work. “I got into it by accident really as I was not actively looking for work,” he admits.

Many of his projects on sustainability now find him because of his knowledge of insurance, risk and pensions.

In hindsight, Silver thinks he was able to start work in the public policy and climate change areas at a higher, more influential, level than he would have had he not been an actuary. He declares that it’s because of “the gravitas of an actuarial qualification”.

I suspect that his willingness to learn and his way with people also played a significant part in the successful transition.

Silver lining So what does the future hold for professionals in the pensions industry? Silver’s view is that the UK pension environment is highly regulated and hence there is a need for a large number of qualified professionals in the industry, including actuaries. He also believes that while the defined benefit pension market is shrinking, the ageing population means there will be a role for actuaries working in this space for many years to come. He asserts that much of it will be legacy work though; his view is that actuaries should be ready to apply their skills in related areas where there is financial uncertainty and risk that needs to be managed.

From a global perspective, Silver points out that there are many emerging economies in need of actuaries: “Each one of them has pensions and savings challenges,

“Silver thinks he was able to start work in the public policy and climate change areas at a higher more influential level than he would have had he not been an actuary” 20

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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but with few qualified actuaries working in that space”.

He is currently working on a project with the National Social Security Fund in Uganda, and uses that country as an example: “The fund has 500,000 members and assets of around $1 billion, predominantly invested in Uganda government bonds. In the next few years, membership and assets are both expected to double. It is a booming economy with increasing demand for actuarial advice.”

Surely actuarial work in developing countries also comes with its challenges, particularly where capital markets are not as advanced and data is scarce? Silver agrees and highlights the difficulty of developing long-term assumptions for actuarial valuations. He gives the example of risk-free rates of return, which can be “difficult to determine as some governments’ bonds are in no way risk-free”. In addition, there have been cases where there was no national mortality data to work with and he recalls that “in one small country we had to use the English Life Table rated up by 15 years as a starting point”.

Silver sees the technical challenges of performing actuarial valuations as relatively minor compared to the soft skills required to persuade stakeholders to take the necessary action. “Unlike in the private sector in the UK, where legal requirements ensure that action is usually taken, it is more difficult with public sector work in any country. That’s where experience and a deep understanding of the culture helps to influence key decision-makers,” he says. On the whole, he thrives on dealing with the varying and complex issues in each country, a lot of which are taken for granted when working in the UK. In Silver’s experience, many countries try to emulate Western regulatory models, like Solvency II, and this

SAM KESTEVEN

28/01/2014 09:27

address sustainability issues in their portfolios), and he should keep pressing on this issue.”

Earlier this week Silver was in the government office’s in the palace of the Emir of Abu Dhabi where he is advising on the reform of the pension system.

Silver also takes time to experience the countries he works in. Unsurprisingly, he says he mostly enjoys engaging with local people, arguably the ultimate beneficiaries of his expertise.

Silver bullet

“It is not enough for actuaries to be technically astute. They need leadership and communication skills, and a brave attitude towards assuming responsibility in areas outside their comfort zone” presents opportunities for him as an actuary with UK experience. He believes that the actuarial skillset is highly regarded, almost to the extent that stakeholders are prejudiced towards UK qualified actuaries.

In a lighthearted moment I take the chance to ask if the actuarial ‘premium’ is reflected in his consultancy fees.

He sidesteps the question by talking about some of the perks that have come with his work, like having an audience with influential individuals.

The previous week, he attended a lunch event on food security at St James’s Palace and had a conversation with Prince Charles. I ask what they spoke about. Never one to miss an opportunity with those who have the power to drive change, he says: “Rather than talk about food security, I told him his speech at the recent National Association of Pension Funds conference was very helpful (where he urged institutional investors to better

I was curious to hear more about climate bonds and how the initiative addresses climate change. Silver describes its objective as: to provide institutional investors, particularly pension funds currently invested in the fossil fuel economy, with an opportunity to invest in ‘green’ initiatives. His view is that in many countries, particularly those with sunny climates, the economics of energy supply is tipping towards solar energy. Thus the initiative provides access to investments that will generate renewable energy. He believes that as London is a major financial centre, it is a good place to start.

I ask him why the focus of financing sustainability ventures is through bonds. He uses the example of the cash flow profile of a wind turbine, which requires a large upfront investment to build and then once it starts producing electricity generates a regular stream of income. The bond can then be refinanced quite cheaply, or repackaged like a mortgage-backed security.

Climate bonds are a relatively new asset class and the idea is to make them investment grade and thus move them into the mainstream of institutional investors’ portfolios. Silver believes that this is a significant part of the solution towards a low-carbon economy.

As for the actuarial profession, Silver’s view is that it is not enough for actuaries to be technically astute, as that is generally taken as given. He gives the example of the declining number of actuaries on boards of insurance companies, which demonstrates the need for strong leadership and communication skills, but more importantly, a more adventurous attitude towards assuming responsibility in areas outside our comfort zone. He believes that only then will actuaries be able to increase their influence and relevance, resulting in a more significant role to play for the benefit of society.

Silver is a warm and very likeable personality. We spoke at length until there was just enough time left for him to pack up for the day and pick up his daughter from school.

With such a busy work schedule including regular international travel, I ask whether he manages to find time to read The Actuary. He tells me he peruses articles as he travels. Pre-empting my next question, with a gleeful smile he adds, “and I always recycle my copy after reading it, of course”. a

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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General insurance Extreme risks features@theactuary.com

O T N E K TA EXTREMES nce business, ra su in an t ou e ip w n ca at tth Extreme risks, of the type t make keeping n’ es do at th ut B . te g ga iti m iously hard to identify and are notoorrio raham Fulcher G ys sa t, an rt po im ss le y assessments up-to-date an Did you know that the average person has a 1-in-700,000 chance of being struck by lightning in a single year, but that those odds drop to 1-in-6,000 over a lifetime?

Fatalistic interest aside perhaps, ‘what has this got to do with insurers?’, you may ask yourself, other than the possibility that your company might be providing some kind of cover to any unfortunate souls that happen to be on the receiving end of a lightning strike.

In fact, it reveals an aspect of risk management that is often overlooked in the areas of finance and economics when thinking about risk and expected return – but one that has a profound impact on how extreme risk events affect a business.

That is, that beneficiaries of any long-term security scheme, such as life insurance, annuities and casualty insurance, face risk serially, compounded over the duration of their participation in the scheme. To keep the promises inherent in these long-term schemes, those that manage them need to be

22

concerned with extreme risks that could threaten the survival over the long term. As Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs, once put it in a CNBC interview: “The definition of infinity is that if you wait long enough, everything happens.”

Risk identification But because they are rare, extreme risks can’t be assessed via traditional techniques such as looking at their historical frequency of occurrence. Relevant data is often not available for sufficiently long historical periods, and even if it were, those involved would have to make very broad assumptions that the underlying processes had remained stationary. Identification and assessment of extreme risks is, therefore, difficult.

The Thinking Ahead Group at Towers Watson has been studying the issue of extreme risks since 2008 from a broad investor’s perspective of global political, financial and

economic stability. From this work, they have come to view the world as a series of interrelated complex adaptive systems, covering markets, political regimes and other social structures. These systems reflect the collective interactions of the participants (driven mostly by human behaviours) and have been increasing in complexity with advancing technology, increased speed of decisionmaking, expanded regulations and increased globalisation.

What is apparent is that a limited understanding of this complexity can have a material impact on the ability to assess and mitigate risk. Errors in the estimates of the likelihood of extreme events could be significant. For example, they may be much less extreme than originally thought. This has certainly been the pattern with ‘100-year’ hurricanes and with financial market movements that bank risk models indicated were “in the range of 10 to 25 standard deviations from the mean.”

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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MATT HERRING/DEBUT ART

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January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:28

“The high rankings of risks like cyber warfare and data compromises in the cloud provide encouragement on how the industry is keeping up to date with risk assessment” 57 varieties Given that insurers are in the risk business, during the second half of 2013 we decided to gauge where insurers are with their thinking by asking executives from all around the world which extreme risks they currently rate as most significant to their businesses.

We used a relatively new way of gathering views and ideas – a Wiki survey – an approach that aims to overcome the constraints of multiple-choice-type answers and the impracticality for analytical purposes of free-form text responses.

A feature of Wiki surveys is that they allow respondents to add their own ideas to those seeded by the survey originator. Starting with a list of around 30 extreme risks, each survey participant was asked the simple question – ‘Over the long term, which is the biggest extreme risk for the insurance industry?’ – and presented with two of the extreme risks selected by an algorithm. They either clicked on the one they thought was the biggest threat or had the opportunity to submit their own idea.

The scale (over 30,000 votes were cast) and geographic diversity of the survey response

Table 1: Top 15 extreme risks facing the insurance industry (as rated by Wiki survey respondents)

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Rank Risk description

Wins

Losses Score Source

1

Pandemic: A new highly infectious and fatal disease spreads through human, animal or plant populations worldwide

1095

427

71.9

Seeded

2

Natural catastrophe: A confluence of major earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, flooding and/or volcanic eruptions with major global effects

1009

521

65.9

Seeded

3

Food/water/energy crisis: A major shortfall in the supply of, or access to, food/water/energy, causing severe societal issues

1054

538

65.2

Seeded

4

Cyber warfare: Computer sabotage/espionage on a major scale, with severe damage to infrastructure, financial, medical or defence systems

1009

538

65.2

Seeded

5

Technology: Large quantity of personal, business or government data stored in clouds are found to be hacked, compromised or misused

173

96

64.2

Submitted

6

Depression: A deep and protracted trough in economic output, massive increase in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking investment

1012

573

63.8

Seeded

7

Banking crisis: Central banks unable/unwilling to supply liquidity in the next crisis, causing banking and real economic activity to stop

960

560

63.1

Seeded

8

An extreme event that causes property damage, supply chain failures, business interruption and death on a significant scale

329

192

63.1

Submitted

9

Rise in extreme weather: Events exceed the capacity of insurance industry and governments to respond, with physical and social implications

495

290

63.0

Submitted

10

Sovereign default: Non-payment by a major sovereign borrower, causes market panic and adversely disrupts the global economy

988

603

62.1

Seeded

11

Hyperinflation: Prices increase rapidly, wiping out savings, provoking extreme consumption and hoarding of real assets

981

601

62.0

Seeded

12

Infrastructure failure: An interruption of a major infrastructure network, disrupting economies or impacting basic needs

943

590

61.5

Seeded

13

Default with knock-on effects: Extreme event leading to default of major insurer/reinsurer, then resulting in difficulties for many others

267

189

58.5

Submitted

14

Terrorism: A major ideologically-driven attack on an important target, inflicting large-scale human and financial damage

907

665

57.7

Seeded

15

EU break-up with political turmoil and wars

285

220

56.4

Submitted

suggests that this is a topic with which a broad cross-section of the industry is engaged. The final rankings are calculated as the estimated chance that the idea would win against another randomly chosen idea. So those at the top of the rankings (see Table 1) are predicted to win the most frequently.

Much as it is unsurprising to see pandemics and natural catastrophes figuring prominently in insurers’ extreme risk thinking, the high rankings of cyber warfare and a user-submitted idea of data compromises in the cloud, provide encouragement on how the industry is keeping up to date with risk assessment.

In total, the survey produced 57 varieties of extreme risks. Delving further into the list also demonstrates the breadth of the ideas (see Table 2).

Implications Identifying a range of extreme right-tail risks is all very well, but what of the implications?

Two of the user-submitted ideas in the top 10 – at number eight, an extreme event causing property damage, supply chain failures, business interruption and death on a significant scale, and number nine, the rise in extreme weather – were probably high in the rankings because of the recent memory of the 2011 Japanese tsunami and Thai floods. Both events had an unexpectedly large impact on international commerce as well as the insurance sector, and there are other areas similarly at risk. If a similar catastrophe were to occur in Taiwan, for example, the effect on the global electronics industry would be severe.

Looking further into the top 10 extreme risks identified by survey participants, the impact of a food/water/energy crisis includes a potential impact on morbidity and mortality, and the creation of investment winners and losers.

In the case of a sovereign default, as well as the impact on those insurers holding debt in the defaulting country, it would in all likelihood result in a regional insurance crisis and an increase in merger and acquisition activity due to forced disposals from banking groups.

The impact of a prolonged depression could also be complex. Although it would be likely to impact insurers’ top-line performance adversely, based on the experience of many European motor insurers, the pressure on household finances tends to lead to a reduction in vehicle miles and in turn to reductions in claims frequency and an

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28/01/2014 09:28

Table 2: Selected Wiki survey responses Rank Risk description

Wins

Losses Score Source

19

Breakdown of capitalism: Distrust in the private capital/ property system causing a collapse in economic activity and asset prices

835

711

54.0

Seeded

24

Extreme longevity: Advances in medicine or genome science significantly increase life expectancy, overwhelming support systems

842

748

53.0

Seeded

32

Social contract erosion: Unwillingness of persons, legal systems and governments to abide by prior binding contracts (coverage limits and so on)

503

474

51.5

Usersubmitted

42

Nitrogen shock: Over-fertilisation leads to soil degradation and oxygen-starved freshwater lakes and oceans, fish populations collapse

265

428

38.3

Usersubmitted

Alien invasion: An invasion of non-peace-seeking aliens that seek either to remove the planet’s resources or enslave/ exterminate human life

205

57

increase in profitability. In short, many of these extreme risks have far reaching impacts for insurers.

Assessment framework However, a recurring problem with extreme risk planning is its subjectivity and its reliance on the experience and creativity of those involved.

Impossible as it is to escape such limitations completely, a useful technique and framework is to define each extreme risk in three dimensions in order to help relate events to consequences – comprising the causal drivers, the precipitating events and

1317

13.5

Seeded

the ensuing effects. So, taking the example of anarchy (number 21 in the list with a 53.8 score), the following analysis in the table below might result.

As for what insurers do with this information, the real issue is having a resilience plan in place. Extreme risk thinking

GRAHAM FULCHER

is managing director at Towers Watson

will never be an exact science, so actions could mean increasing the robustness of a business to deal with shocks, for example by using instruments such as contingent capital.

Appropriate reinsurance is also critical, as a firm that can survive a one-in-200 year event will probably be very profitable in the aftermath.

Equally important is realising that the kinds of risks that could wipe out an insurance business do inevitably evolve over time, and so should be kept under regular review. a

Table 3: Anarchy example Extreme risk Underlying causes

Precipitating events

Effects

Anarchy

Social disorder, rioting, looting, attacks on governmental institutions, loss of life

Government collapse, economic disruption and lay-offs, exit of foreign investment

Income inequality, perceptions of unfairness, dissatisfaction with government performance, populism, hyper-communications capabilities (social media, etc)

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28/01/2014 12:31

General insurance Driverless cars features@theactuary.com

Driverless cars are no longer being talked about as a future technology – they are on the roads. From the time of announcements of launches by different institutions and organisations (Celtic-Plus Wisafecar, Vislab, Google), things have moved fast towards operational, on-road driverless cars. In 2013, Volvo announced the world’s first large-scale test of driverless cars, involving 100 cars on the streets of Gothenburg in Sweden by 2017 and possibly earlier, while Milton Keynes in the UK predicted operational cars by 2015.

Lawmakers have not been far behind – as of 2013, three states in the USA, California, Florida and Nevada, have passed laws permitting autonomous cars.

Driverless or autonomous cars have built-in technology to sense surroundings and make driving decisions. The sensing data collected is transmitted to separate infrastructure, and processed. This includes road features, signs and traffic lights, spotting pedestrians, lane markings, guard rails, overpasses, speed limits, accident prone areas, map information and vehicle-to-vehicle information.

Information is collected through a multitude of instruments – cameras, radar, ultrasonic detectors, lidar (light detection and ranging), gyroscopes, accelerometers and altimeters. These provide data to answer the questions of what is happening around the car, where it is and where it should go.

Road traffic crashes are the ninth leading cause of death and account for 2.2% (1.3 million) of all deaths globally. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled.

This costs US$518 billion globally, costing individual countries 1-2% of their annual GDP. Both the human and monetary costs of road accidents provide a mind-numbing reminder of the everyday dangers on roads.

The benefits For non-life insurance companies, motor insurance accounts for a significant part of their insurance portfolio – sometimes more than 50%. Motor insurance accounts for a large proportion of the claims due to liability claims arising from injury to people.

Driverless cars are likely to bring down the accident rates drastically – to as much as 1% according to some estimates. Reduction of accident rates will bring down the cost in terms of human lives as well as in monetary terms. For the insurance industry, it will mean a huge reduction on the claims reported and paid for under motor insurance.

The insurance industry is still trying to understand the transformation impact that driverless cars will have on the business. The possible benefit of reduced claims cost is there, but there are associated positives and negatives to this which insurers will have to focus on to make the changes to their business models. Considering the reality of

having driverless cars on the roads within the next 3-5 years, insurers will have to move quickly in the following key areas: a) Rate making for motor insurance: There will be a complete change in the way rating and underwriting is done. Rate making for motor insurance typically focuses on key parameters (with variations by insurer and geography). Table 1 (right) lists the rating parameters impact from driverless cars.

Driver rating will be of less importance, since the vehicle itself will combine the driver capabilities. The vehicle rating will have to include more factors for rating of the equipment to drive the ‘driverless’ capabilities, for example the radar, cameras, software for the programming and record of accidents for the equipment manufacturer. The location rating takes on prominence due to the place of storage of the vehicle and its equipment.

The security of the vehicle with its software and hardware is important since the whole premise of safe functioning of the vehicle depends on this equipment, the tampering of which can result in malfunctioning.

Insurers will have to evaluate premiums in line with the lower accident rates due to lower loss ratios for the line of business. The rate-making will have to keep in mind that though the frequency of accidents is expected to go down, the severity of the same can be high due to the high cost of equipment involved in the accidents.

LOOK MUM, NO HANDS! As driverless cars are preparing for launch in Milton Keynes in the UK, Partha Panda takes a look at how the new innovation will change the motor insurance market globally

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THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 10:13

PARTHA PANDA is

director, consulting, with the insurance practice of iGATE

Table 1. Effect of driverless cars on Insurance rate-making Motor rating parameters

Pre driverless cars Post driverless cars

Driver rating : Age, gender, driving experience, accident history, additional drivers, traffic offences and suspensions

Key rating parameter

Eliminated

Vehicle rating: Make, model, accessories, modifications, vehicle condition, security features, usage type, expected mileage, number of cylinders, vehicle value, power to weight ratio, engine size, year of manufacture, country of manufacture, body style (sedan, coupe)

Key rating parameter

Most important rating parameter. Will include additional parameters for the equipment for driverless capabilities

Location rating: Post code, suburb, garaging, address

Not the top area of focus

Key rating area due to additional parameters of security for fear of equipment tampering

Others: Vehicle financing, membership of automobile related associations, multiple policies, voluntary excess

Optional in many cases

Will include areas like software security as key focus

b) New product types: The conventional motor insurance product coverage focus will no longer be completely applicable, since the risk focus for the product will change. Present motor insurance products are around the coverage of liability (to others) and/or physical damage (to own vehicle and accessories). The third party liability for both vehicle damage and bodily injury will assume higher proportions of importance with specific products focusing on them due to the high value of the equipment and higher possible severity in accidents. In some regions, comprehensive cover is provided without collision cover. This will change since collision cover will be a key focus too.

BEN THE ILLUSTRATOR

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c) Claims: Who is responsible for the claim?

This question of to whom to assign liability in accidents will be a challenge. Will it be the owner/driver of the car or its manufacturer or the equipment or software manufacturer?

Insurers will have to work with regulators to decide liability for claims while formulating the laws and rating for driverless cars.

Insurers will also have to contend with a higher amount of loss per claim due to damage of expensive equipment, though the frequency is expected to come down. d) Data usage and analytics: All decisions with regard to rating, products and claims will have to depend on the large amount of data analysis generated from the vehicle and

its ‘sensing’. This data will cover manual interventions, road conditions, traffic and other vehicle movements, accidents and vehicle diagnostics and will have to be analysed and sent back to the vehicle without lag to enable the vehicle to function ‘driverless’. Insurers will need to use this data for risk rating, loss development, vehicle categorisation, location analysis and accident analysis, among others. The challenge for insurers is to be able to take in the large quantum of data coming their way. This includes having the physical IT infrastructure, data management capability and analytics to manage the data and churn out the required analysis. Considering the level of maturity of many insurers in data management and infrastructure, this is the first step that needs to be taken for readiness for driverless cars on roads.

Back to the future Driverless vehicles will change the face of transportation with significant impact on insurers. It is imperative that the insurance industry is able to harness this change – be ready for managing the data, prepare for new products and rating and create a new claims management eco system. The connected car, which has been talked about only theoretically, has now become a reality – bringing with it a completely new way of working for the insurance industry. a

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 10:13

General insurance Periodic payment orders features@theactuary.com

Time off

for certain behaviour Victoria Jenkins argues that behavioural economics has an important role to play in dealing with periodic payment orders

Behavioural economics is a fascinating field and one which actuaries should be aware of in their everyday work. It is the study of inherent biases in human decision-making. Many examples of these biases have been cited in connection with the financial crisis, and increasingly the implications for insurance are being examined. In a speech entitled ‘The Human Face of Regulation’ in April 2013, Martin Wheatley, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), explained how the FCA is going to use the principles of behavioural economics in the protection of the consumer (see www.fca.org.uk/news/ speeches/human-face-of-regulation).

The Courts Act of 2003 fundamentally changed the way that catastrophic injury claims are settled by insurers. It gave the courts the power to enforce a periodic payment order (PPO) as compensation instead of an upfront lump sum payment.

A PPO is an annuity payment from the insurer to the claimant, and is designed to cover ongoing care costs, loss of earnings and other expenses associated with the injuries sustained for the rest of the claimant’s lifetime.

There could be a link between PPOs and behavioural economics. The final claim amount awarded in either a lump sum or PPO case is based on a series of ‘choices’. These are made by the claimant and/or their representative and the insurer (or, in court cases, a judge). Courts have the right to impose a PPO, but there is still an element of choice as to the amount that is eventually agreed between the interested parties.

Taking a gamble A ‘choice’ between a lump sum and a PPO for the claimant is effectively a choice between two gambles. The lump sum gamble is that the amount of money received now may be insufficient to meet future care needs. The PPO should provide more certainty around the ability to meet future needs. However, there are still inflation risks associated with PPOs, and also the consideration that if the claimant dies sooner than expected, the claimant’s estate would have been better off with a lump sum settlement. Could there also be a wellestablished bias at play here, that of delayed reward discounting (DRD)?

DRD refers to the fact that, in general, humans prefer money now rather than later,

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Figure 1: Average PPO NPV as a % of offered lump sum

and will accept a discount in an immediate amount rather than wait for a larger amount later in time. A quick internet search for DRD will elicit many scholarly examples of experiments demonstrating this effect in both humans and animals. Human experiments focus on small amounts of money (a few dollars), small time delays (days) and do not feature annuity-type choices. Therefore, they are not directly applicable to a choice between a lump sum and a PPO, which involve larger sums and lifetime durations.

One method for pricing excess of loss reinsurance in the presence of PPOs is to convert any PPO claims to an equivalent net present value (NPV) lump sum using the prevailing Ogden discount rate. These converted claims are then used in a traditional lump sum frequency and severity analysis before loading the resultant pricing for the presence of PPOs.

On a hunch Our experience in doing this has led to an ‘actuarial hunch’ that PPO claims converted to their Ogden equivalents are not from the same underlying statistical distribution as traditional lump sum values. Fitting severity distributions to these claims in amongst the traditional lump sums can feel a bit like fitting to ‘apples and oranges’. On comparing claimants with similar injuries, claims settled more recently as a PPO, revalued to an Ogden basis, just seem to be more expensive than claims that were settled a few years ago prior to the arrival of PPO settlements. This difference persists even after adjusting for inflation and after adjusting for the fact that it is often the larger claims that settle as a PPO. If our observation turns out to be true, excess of loss reinsurance pricing could have an implicit double loading. First, in the inclusion of these claims in the original lump sum severity curve fitting process (including the derivation of the development pattern applied to lump sums) and second, in the PPO loading applied afterwards. Similarly this sort of distortion could affect the parameterisation of capital models for classes of business that have experienced PPO claims.

This severity effect could of course just be ‘inflation’ at work and/or a suggestion that the actual level of inflation for these claims is not as we expected in our revaluation exercise. However, inflation is the symptom,

OTTER DETTMEK/IKON IMAGES

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Figure 2: Change in reserve % in the two years prior to settlement

not the underlying cause of the effect. There could be many reasons for this effect.

Claimants’ solicitors could just be getting better at including likely future needs in their annual PPO award requests – an example would be the need for a new car every few years. But shouldn’t we explore the fact that DRD could be partly responsible?

The preference for receiving money upfront could mean that the choice between a lump sum and PPO with equivalent NPV would be biased towards the lump sum value.

This effect was certainly evident in the early years of PPOs, with most claimants preferring to take the cash. If our premise is that if people inherently prefer the money upfront, what happens when it becomes more normal and socially responsible to settle on a PPO basis? There could be upward pressure on the annual payment amount under a PPO. This would force an inequality in the NPV of the two settlement methods in actual terms, to achieve equality in utility or emotional terms.

To test our theory to see whether DRD is having an impact on PPO settlements, we launched a survey with CASS and LSE students. The survey consists of questions designed to extract the pure psychological uplift factor between lump sums and PPOs by putting students in hypothetical claimant situations.

Survey questions Participants are presented with the option of a lump sum and have to provide the minimum annual payment they would swap for the given lump sum. Importantly, students were instructed to ignore inflation, interest and tax and assume that life expectancy is fixed to remove any opinions in terms of future financial conditions. The four questions differ in terms of the size of the original lump sum (small and large) and the future life expectancy (short and long). Figure 1 shows the average response from the survey across the four questions in terms of the sum of the minimum annual payments (until the stated life expectancy) participants would swap for the lump sum offered expressed as a ratio of that lump sum.

As can be seen from the chart, it appears that individuals do require a premium to defer receipt from a lump sum to an annuity.

This effect is more pronounced when the

period over which they would receive the annuity is longer – for example, when life expectancy is higher. Another interesting observation is that the multiple is larger when a smaller lump sum is offered.

Now we can look at actual claims data to see if we can observe this DRD effect in practice. We conducted an exercise to look at the change in reserve for settled PPO claims and settled lump sum claims in the two years prior to settlement. If DRD is evidenced in PPO settlement negotiations, we would expect the reserve to increase prior to settlement by more than the move from a 2.5% pa to a lower discount rate would suggest. That is exactly what we see. Figure 2 compares the change in reserve for two years prior to settlement for lump sums and PPOs converted to lump sum equivalent claims for different settlement value thresholds.

PPO settlements exhibit a clear increase prior to settlement, compared with a small decrease in general for lump sums.

Interestingly, the uplift evidenced in the data corresponds quite closely to the survey results.

Behavioural economics experiments are notoriously difficult to conduct without introducing inherent biases, but the fact that DRD is a well-accepted phenomenon and that our survey and the data supports the hypothesis should lead us to reconsider at least two aspects of our analysis in respect of PPOs: how we price reinsurance in the context of PPOs to avoid double-loading the cost, and how we parameterise our capital models when the vast majority of our past data consists of lump sums. Reserving is another area that could warrant attention, both in terms of incurred but not reported (IBNR) and in terms of the setting of original case estimates. Lastly, I think the more we look for the effects of behavioural economics in our everyday work, the more we will find them. a

VICTORIA JENKINS is co-head of analytics for EMEA in the London office of Guy Carpenter

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 11:46

The Actuary Readership Survey 2013 editor@theactuary.com

HIGHLIGHTS OF READERSHIP SURVEY 987 people responded to the survey in December 2013

16%

Extent of your satisfaction with content

33% females

94% satisfied 6% not very satisfied

84% UK

67% males Extent to which each section of the magazine is meeting your needs Agree or strongly agree

News stories

Comment and opinion

10%

12%

90% Your interest in format of magazine

32%

Print and electronic version, such as iPad

23% Electronic only

47%

83%

53%

Comment on survey results

45% +

Soft skills

17%

88%

Print only

In-depth features

Disagree or strongly disagree

Thank you to everyone who shared their thoughts in our readership survey at the end of last year. Your input is very helpful as we embark on this next phase of The Actuary’s evolution.

While it was heartening to see a substantially favourable level of satisfaction with the content in The Actuary, survey respondents also made it clear we can do more, for example: the development of more ‘soft skills’ and international features.

In this increasingly digital age, it was interesting to note that while most respondents would still like to receive The Actuary by post, a growing number would consider receiving an electronic copy instead.

If you prefer, you can now choose to receive your magazine by email each month, rather than by post. This would allow for a more timely and convenient receipt of content. Please contact membership@actuaries.org.uk to choose this new feature and look out for further details to follow by email.

All that remains is for me to announce that the lucky winner of the £150 John Lewis gift voucher is Ruaidhri McCaughey – congratulations, Ruaidhri!

Kelvin Chamunorwa, Editor

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BOOK REVIEW

Climate change in the media: reporting risk and uncertainty by James Painter PUBLISHER: I.B Tauris ISBN: 978-1780765884 RRP: £12.99

“Painter argues that people are familiar with ideas of risk from their everyday life – for instance, in relation to insurance” As actuaries, we are used to communicating risk and uncertainty. But do other people understand these concepts in the same way? And if not, what lessons can we learn?

Another field where communicating risk and uncertainty is important is climate science. It is increasingly common for scientists and politicians to describe the challenges of climate change in terms of managing risk in the context of uncertainty. Some experts have suggested the language of risk might be effective in engaging people on the subject as it provides a way of explaining why tackling climate change is desirable despite its inherent uncertainties.

This was the motivation behind a recent study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford, presented in this book.

The centre-piece of this is an analysis of approximately 350 articles, taken from three newspapers in six countries (Australia, France, India, Norway, the UK, and the US), which investigates the extent and ways in which journalists use the language of risk and uncertainty when reporting on climate science. This analysis will primarily interest those who

ALAMY

p31_feb_book_review•gc_SEMIFINAL•CT.indd 31

aim to engage the public on climate change. But the book will also interest actuaries, particularly its early chapters which present background material on the communication of risk and uncertainty.

Painter uses ‘uncertainty’ where there are gaps in knowledge and ‘risk’ when the likelihood of something happening can be quantified as a probability.

Journalists indicate uncertainty using language like ‘may’, ‘suggest’, ‘likely’ and ‘difficult to predict’, or indicating a range of possible outcomes. They indicate risk using numerical probabilities or odds, and metaphors such as betting or insurance.

Increasingly, journalists are generalists who report on a wide range of topics, and few have a background in maths or science. Many are not comfortable with numbers and probabilities, and there is a widespread belief that it is best not to use many numbers when communicating with the general public. However, technological developments and online coverage provide opportunities to experiment with infographics and alternative formats.

The book recommends, perhaps surprisingly, that journalists quote probabilities and numerical

confidence levels more often, as qualitative expressions of uncertainty are subject to a wide range of interpretations. For example, the 2007 reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) use ‘likely’ to mean ‘at least 90% likelihood’, but previous research found that people typically interpret it as 65%-75% likely. Journalists tend to report the IPCC’s conclusions using its qualitative language and not the numerical definitions, which may be one reason why the public tend to underestimate the extent of scientific consensus on climate change.

Painter argues that people are familiar with ideas of risk from their everyday life – for instance, in relation to insurance, health and investment – so risk concepts can aid understanding. In contrast, the language of uncertainty can be a barrier to understanding – people often equate uncertainty with ignorance, causing them to stop listening if an expert indicates they are not sure what the outcome will be.

The analysis of media articles investigated four framings of climate science: risk, uncertainty, disaster and opportunity. Disaster and uncertainty were present much more often than risk and opportunity, and disaster was the dominant tone much more frequently than uncertainty. In part, this may be because journalists and headline writers are attracted to the drama of disaster. But the research found that journalists often take their cue from press releases and interviewees, so choice of language is important when talking to the media. Climate scientists tend to emphasise areas of uncertainty because that is the focus of their research, yet journalists need to be reminded upfront of the areas where the science is largely settled.

This short book provides an accessible introduction to climate change journalism. It summarises coverage in the six countries studied, revealing noteworthy variations arising from political, economic and cultural differences. Its insights into media reporting of risk and uncertainty may be useful to some actuaries. More useful would be insights into how this reporting is understood by its readers, but that is left as a subject for further research. ● Claire Jones is sustainability and economics manager at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales

MORE ONLINE Latest reviews at www.theactuary.com/ opinion

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:29

arts@theactuary.com

Arts

Natalie Li provides a guide to events coming up in the next six months

12 Years a Slave: winner of best film drama at the Golden Globes

WHAT ’S ON IN 2014 Despite a 7% slash in grants to the arts last year in the UK, there’s lots to look forward to. Unconventional theatre settings, night-time fun at the museum, and Hollywood stars on the London stage. Plus the two most talked about films of the year 32

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Music M Justin Timberlake Ju Th actor and vocalist heads to the UK this The sp spring, with songs from his critically wellre received album, 20/20 Experience, which has so more than 3.5 million worldwide. The sold al album has reached platinum status in three ot other countries as well as gold status in ni others. nine M March/April, across the UK

Manic Street Preachers M T Welsh trio kick off their UK comeback The t tour in Leeds (ending in London) with songs f from their current album Rewind the Film,

LIVEPIX

28/01/2014 10:14

At the back Arts

V outrageous and famous stage costumes View m made

by Jean Paul Gaultier for Madonna and Kylie (left) and watch Gillian Anderson in a Streetcar Named Desire at the Young Vic

and a selection from theirr ms. previous ten studio albums.

They will preview tracks from ogy, their next album Futurology, cribed which the band have described as an “electro stomp”.

March/April, across the UK

TTheatre & dance A Streetcar Named Desire

Museums, galleries and heritage sites will throw open their doors after hours in an event funded by the Arts Council England. This year expect more nationwide site performance art, live music, poetry reading, talks and treasure trails. A chance to discover new exhibitions and engage in a range of fun and quirky activities.

Nationwide, 15-17 May www.culture24.org.uk/museumsatnight

For Former X-Files star Gillian Anderson makes her return to London theatre as she takes on Ten Tennessee William’s fragile and complex Blan Blanche DuBois. The play follows Blanche’s breakdown after she moves in with her sister and is tormented by her violent brother-in-law, Stanley Kowalski. The Young Vic will also welcome Olivier award-winning stage and screen actress Juliet Stevenson as she plays Winnie in Samuel Beckett’s surreal masterpiece Happy Days, directed by Natalie Abrahami (until March 8).

The Young Vic, London www.youngvic.org

The Fashion World of Jean Paul Gaultier: From the Sidewalk to the Catwalk

Wayne McGregor: The Art of Fugue

This first major, theatrically-staged exhibition devoted to the French fashion designer will feature his avant-garde creations which have earned him a place in history. It will include iconic costumes for film and performance from the early 1970s to the present day. Expect to see Madonna’s infamous conical bra and corsets worn during her 1990 Blonde Ambition Tour and stage costumes designed for Kylie Minogue.

Barbican, Art Gallery, London 9 April–17 August

Contemporary ballet meets baroque music as award-winning British choreographer and director Wayne McGregor fuses his latest work, The Art of Fugue, for The Royal Ballet to the music of Bach arranged by Michael Berkeley. McGregor is internationally renowned for his physically testing choreography and groundbreaking collaborations across dance, film, visual art, technology, science and music.

Royal Opera House, London 7-15 February

Art Museums at Night

Strauss’ 150th anniversary 2014 The 150th anniversary of Richard Strauss will be celebrated across the world in 2014. To mark the birth of the German composer the Philharmonia Orchestra will perform at the Royal Festival Hall. Highlights include Strauss’ Don Juan and his one-act opera Salome (27 February); an afternoon concert of A Hero’s Taleon (23 March), and Till Eulenspiegel (5 June).

Southbank, London, Feb-June

Film The Wolf of Wall Street This black comedy has been widely lauded as Martin Scorsese’s best offering since Goodfellas.

Leonardo DiCaprio (pictured below) plays real-life New York stockbroker Jordan Belfort in this debauched rise-and-fall tale of life in the financial world of nineties New York.

Nationwide, out now.

12 Years A Slave Steve McQueen’s brutal depiction of slavery in pre-Civil War America has already won best film drama at the Golden Globes this year and is set to be one of the most-talked about films of 2014. This adaptation is taken from the memoirs of Solomon Northup, a freeborn black American family man from upstate New York who was kidnapped and shipped to the South and sold to the owner of a plantation in 1841.

Out now

The General Back in selected cinemas more than nine decades after its original release, this silent comedy film sees Buster Keaton playing Johnny Gray, a train driver stuck between two warring armies. This 4K digital restoration is worth catching while you can. www.bfi.org.uk

Discoveries: Art, Science and Exploration from University of Cambridge Museums Little-known treasures will be displayed in the extraordinary interiors of Two Temple Place on London’s Embankment, bringing together the fascinating collections from all eight University of Cambridge museums. The exhibition is about the idea of ‘discovery’, displaying objects that span millennia; from artworks to scientific artefacts, historic instruments to rare zoological specimens.

Two Temple Place, London 31 January – 27 April

Macbeth Shakespeare’s dark tragedy edy takes a new twist as theatre collective Rift bring the story to a secret location from dusk till dawn. Defying traditional staging, audiences can watch as witches conjure up evil in an underground car park, and even bed down in Macbeth’s castle on the 27th floor of a tower block. Leave the imagination bit to the organisers, this enthralling and ambitious staging simply requires stamina.

Secret location tbc 4 April – 31 May, London http://macbeth.in/

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 10:14

At the back Coffee break puzzles@theactuary.com

Puzzles

— RD SWO CROS IZE PR E PUZZL

For a chance to win a £25 Amazon voucher, please email your crossword solution to: puzzles@theactuary.com by Wednesday 19 February

—

NEW YEAR: RESOLVE TO SOLVE In this issue’s crossword, ‘S’ is referred to in one of the clues and its meaning can be found hidden in the completed grid. A number of other words that can be linked to S are solutions to various other clues

Across

16

Without mom and pop, they ran shop badly (7)

8

Quicker as a result of fall during stand? (8)

20

Main plan to name a cop badly (5,3)

9

Rift with relative, at first glance (6)

23

Common receded all Autumn through (6)

10

Ban for Victor, leading Chelsea striker (4)

25

11

Chap has chances coming about in S (10)

Circumspect but included untried lap dancer (10)

12

Port provides lines to South America (6)

26

Bark may affect certain characters (4)

13

The Saint, it appears, headed south in religious military order (8)

27

Gal cavorted with Rio - silly girl (6)

28

14

Conundrum displaying strange symmetry when number dropped (7)

Savers get bailout before heart ripped out of RBS (8)

Down 1

2

3

4

5

8

6

7

9

10

11

12

1

Close confused diner in display (8)

2

Those having lost match in computer environment, not normal (6)

3

Luddite has no radius in transformation (8)

4

Regressive holy man, Catholic, eats fish and believes (7)

5

Stand-up headliner, the finest, is a sensation (6)

6

Bankhead found, on reflection, a respite in Panama, for instance? (8)

7

Oceans were distilled to identify solution (6)

15

Toad with tailless frog, nature first accepted, reciprocating movement (2,3,3)

17

With branch structure, banker has look at which interest included (8)

18

Almost apoplectic due to funerary arrangement (4,4)

19

Preconceived notion required before being included in top class (1,6)

21

Numbers Oscar confounded with learner (6)

22

Psycho mother killer returns (6)

24

Give up drink when dance leader drops out – tango brought forward as experiment (3,3)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

25

27

34

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

p34_35_feb_crossword_puzzles–SEMIFINAL•CTgc.indd 34

24

26

28

© Nylfia

28/01/2014 09:30

Nylfia is an actuary who solves and sets cryptic crosswords created especially for The Actuary

HAVE YOU GOT WHAT IT TAKES? For information on IQ testing in your area, visit www.mensa.org.uk

—

A MENSE PRIZ E PUZZL

Tasty teaser Mensa puzzle 571

—

Find food items to fit the clues. Each group of crosses should be replaced with the same three letter word. What are the food items?

_ _ _ _XXX

A fruit

_ _ _ _ XXX

A bean

For a chance to win a £25 Amazon voucher, email your solution to puzzle 571 to: puzzles@theactuary. com by Wednesday 19 February

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ X X X _ _ A sweet

TERMS AND CONDITIONS The prize will be awarded for the first correct entry drawn at random from those received before the closing date. The winner’s name will be announced in the next edition. Please note, the puzzle editor’s decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into. We reserve the right to feature the winner’s name in The Actuary. Your details will not be passed to any third party in connection with this draw.

Tricky slicky Mensa puzzle 572

E E F E L L F F L F L

A L L E L E A E A A L

A A E F F L L E A F A

F A E F E F F F E A L

L E L A A E E F L L A

A E F F A L A F E E L

E E A E F L A F L A E

E A F L F L L F L E A

L F F L F E F E E E F

F F F A L A E F A E F

E A F E F F L A F F A

M A S M S S M A M A L

L M A M M A M A L M M

S M S A S S L L A L A

A S S L A L S M A L A

S S S M L M M L M M S

A S S A A A S S A L A

L M M L L S A L S L M

A L M S A A A M A L S

L L M L M M S M A A A

S L A M S M A A L A S

A M L S A S A S M S M

E A S T T S E S A S T

T S A E T E A A T E E

E A A S E E A E E T S

A S S T S T S E A A E

T S T S E S T S T A A

A E S T A A E E E A A

T E A S E T A T S E T

S A T T S A S E T A A

S T A S E S T E T S S

S A E S E T A A E E T

A S T E T E A E E S A

E C N N S E E E E S S

S N N S S S C S C S S

E S E S E E N C N C N

N S E S C S E N E S S

C S S E S E C E C C E

S S N E E E E N S S N

N C E S C N N N E S E

E S N E E N N C N E N

C E E N C S E N E C E

S C N S S C E C S S N

E S C N E C N N C N S

A car has travelled 100 miles at 70mph. It started its journey 10 gallons of fuel but its tank has been leaking throughout the journey and is now dry. The car completes 40 miles per gallon.

How many gallons of fuel does it leak per hour?

Four letters Puzzle 573 Three of these grids contain at least two seven-letter words.

Find all of these, as well as the longest word in the fourth grid.

Puzzle provided by Tom Bratcher

Bridge puzzle 39 Line of best fit Study in numbers Mensa puzzle 574 At a college, the law course has 39 students enrolled on it, a drama course has 42 enrolled, the beauty course has 80 people and the textiles course has 122 enrolled.

How many students are enrolled on the clerical course?

SHUTTERSTOCK

p34_35_feb_crossword_puzzles–SEMIFINAL•CTgc.indd 35

1

2

3

4

5

♠A73

♠Q62

♠8732

♠K85

♠J86

♥AKQ84 ♥AJ1076 ♥A10865 ♥AKQJ

♥AQ84

♦-

♦K5

♦4

♣AQ842 ♣AQ83

♦-

♦6

♣AK74

♣109876 ♣AQ72

You are N South 1♥ and the bidding 2♣ has gone: 2♠

S 1♠ 2♥

Which of South’s hands above best fits South’s bidding, and how would you bid with the other 4 hands?

Bridge puzzle provided by David Lampert

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

35

28/01/2014 09:30

G R A D E O N O V E T L E I I R I P L E N A N A S U N T E C O O K H A E N H E D V A E R U B I N O I Y L I T T L E U I T R E S C

puzzles@theactuary.com

SOLUTIONS FOR DECEMBER 2013 Sponsored by

DECEMBER 2013 theactuary.com

Congratulations to this month’s winner – Yashpal Suri

The magazine

of the actuarial

The winner of the Bumper Prize Draw was Dharmen Ladva of Hannover Re UK Life Branch, who answered all 12 puzzles correctly

profession

J E S A P A C K A K C Y M E S K D E R S T P A L E M D G E S N S T E I R L E E N G E A O T H I

U S T D A R S M E R S R M I U T H N J L A C C K

C H I I S G E R A I C E 21 O L R I M H E A N D E S

R

I I H R L T

A

I O C A S T A O I L H E A T E D

S A T R V

T A L L S E D G E

© Nylfia

At the back Coffee break

O R E A

B O G A R T

Day 5 Distant destinations Day 10 Party How many miles paraphernalia should it be to Bali?

ANSWER: 110. The alphabetical values of the first and last letters are added together and multiplied by 10 to give the Prize winner: Alison Zhu number of miles.

Day 1 Starry night

Rearrange the letters to give two sports.

What are they?

ANSWER: Promenade.

Prize winner: Mark Richards

ANSWER: Surfing and snorkelling.

Day 2 Added cheer

Prize winner: Emma Pellow

ANSWER: Six. The columns total 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35.

Prize winner: Richard Williamson

Day 7 Secret surprise What number should replace the question mark?

ANSWER: 16. Multiply each number on the left by two then square it.

What letter should replace the question mark in the fourth pyramid?

Day 8 Winter warmer A Swedish proverb has been split up into groups. Rearrange the groups to form the proverb. What should it say in English?

ANSWER: 7. A life without love is like a year without summer.

Prize winner: Kevin Begley

36

Add the same two letters to each of the following groups. Each group can then be rearranged to give a word. The three words are associated and all of them can be seen on the beach. What are they?

ANSWER: Add LE to give barnacle, limpet and cuttlefish.

What letter should replace the question mark?

ANSWER: 4. They contain names of British rivers – Cam, Dee, Wear, Tees, Ouse and Wye. Prize winner: Serena Araj

Prize winner: John MacDonald

p36_feb_puzzle_solution_SEMIFINAL•CTgc.indd 36

Day 12 Gone fishing

Day 9 Puzzled pudding ANSWER: I. If each letter is replaced with its alphabetical value, the top of each square minus the middle number gives the bottom of each square.

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

A group of hikers on a five-day walking holiday cover one-fifth of the total distance on the first day. The next day they cover onequarter of what is left. The following day twofifths of the remainder and on the fourth day half of the remaining ning distance. The group now have 20 miles es left. How many miles have they walked?

Prize winner: Mark Bailie

Prize winner: David Webb

What is the connection between the following words?

Day 11 Tricky trek

Prize winner: Mark Straupe aupe

Prize winner: Duncan Spooner

Day 4 Holiday haven

Prize winner: Chris Wiltshire

ANSWER: 91.111111

Day 3 Perplexing pyramid ANSWER: T. The first, third and fifth letters of countries are in the points of the triangles and the initial of their capital is in the centre. (Italy – Rome, Kenya – Nairobi, Spain – Madrid and Japan – Tokyo.

ANSWER: They contain SUN, SEA and SAND.

Day 6 Healthy pursuits

Place three 3-letter groups together to make a nine-letter holiday word. What is it?

What number should replace the question mark in the grid?

What connection do the following words have?

SHUTTERSTOCK

28/01/2014 10:15

At the back Student student@theactuary.com

Student Jessica Elkin explains how the Technical Actuarial Standards give confidence in actuaries’ accountability and ethics

TA K EN TO The Technical Actuarial Standards are a bit of a laugh, aren’t they? They’re like a party for the mind, set out in neat digestible guidelines. It’s little wonder that Taz, clearly the best Looney Tunes character, was based on them. Note that, like some actuaries, he wasn’t very good at making conversation and slobbered a lot.

If you’re not already au fait with our friends, here’s a little catch-up. The Board of Actuarial Standards (BAS) was formed back in 2005 when a review of the Actuarial Profession took place and HM Treasury subsequently asked the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) to establish standards for the Profession by means of an independent body.

This led to the establishment of BAS. Its aim was “to promote high quality actuarial practice and the integrity, competence and transparency of the actuarial profession – to the benefit of all those who rely on actuarial advice.” Seems fair enough.

Since then, BAS has developed its guidelines, the Technical Actuarial Standards (TASs), in accordance with a predetermined conceptual framework. They started coming into effect from 2010. In a nutshell, the FRC is responsible for setting technical standards and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is responsible for setting and maintaining ethical standards, ingeniously called Actuarial Profession Standards.

Now, that’s not to say that we weren’t all doing a good job already. The IFoA wasn’t a lawless wasteland before we were all rigorously completing TAS checklists. Or at least, I don’t think it was. Perhaps those darker days are simply not spoken of.

PHIL WRIGGLESWORTH

p37_feb_student_SEMIFINAL•CTgc.indd 37

TA S K The reality is, it’s a good idea for any profession to have standards that are set independently, rather than writing its own rules. We don’t want people to think of us as a bunch of rotund old geezers in a boardroom smoking cigars and slapping each other on the back.

If we are answerable to standards set by an external body, we are more credible as a profession and, crucially, have an individual and collective leg to stand on in the face of criticism by showing that we have complied with those standards. People relying on our work can then feel as confident as possible in our ethics and our accountability. I mean, would you want bankers setting their own bonuses? Oh, wait.

Tell me more To keep things interesting, there are two types of TASs. Generic TASs apply to work on data, modelling and reporting, so most work

that actuaries do, and specific TASs are simply any TASs which are not designated by the FRC as being generic. Usually you’ll select the one/s appropriate to your practice area – for example, pensions – and see which bits are relevant or material for the work you’re doing. Confusingly to my untrained mind, there is a TAS on funeral arrangements but nothing specifically on investment or enterprise risk management. Still, the TAS is young, so if we wait and pray we may one day glimpse them on the horizon.

All right, all right, so professional guidelines aren’t laugh-a-minute, and some may feel that they’re another layer of bureaucracy which they could do without.

TASs are only a few years old, so chances are that some of you remember the olden days before they existed and wonder what they’ve really changed. They may have altered your way of working substantially but, since actuaries are a conscientious bunch, chances are that the addition to your workload on their account consists mostly of showing that the stuff you were already doing complies with them. The trick is coming up with ways to make that as efficient as possible.

For some people, however, the TASs may provide a helpful framework. A key focus in the guidelines is on ensuring that the users of actuarial work have all of the information they need to make sage judgments, as per the “transparency” objective above; thus giving actuaries a point of reference to ensure that they are being as helpful as possible to their clients (internal or external). And for a group that collectively is thought of as wanting in the communication department, that can be no bad thing.

For me, the best thing about the advent of the TASs is the possibility of actuarial wordplay. Looney Tunes aside, a particularly brilliant quiz team name at my firm’s biennial pub quiz was Inglourious BAS TAS Ds. Unfortunately, the quiz was run by nonactuaries who assumed that the team in question simply wasn’t very good at spelling and used capital letters indiscriminately.

In all, there’s no denying that the TASs can be a bit of a pain. But thankfully they’re grounded in common sense, and with a bit more practice I’m sure we’ll all be TAS-a-TAS-maniacs. a

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY www.theactuary.com

37

28/01/2014 09:31

At the back Appointments

SPONSORED BY

peoplemoves@theactuary.com

Moves Insurance Companies Board, subject to Regulatory approval.

Hymans Robertson has appointed Ross Evans as senior consultant to its enterprise risk management practice.

Evans will be responsible for growing Hymans Robertson’s advisory services to life insurers.

He joins from the Royal Bank of Scotland. Evans is a regular speaker at industry conferences.

James Crispin (above) will take over from Ewing as chief actuary, and Alan McBride (below) has been appointed deputy chief actuary.

Quintant Partners has appointed Guy Shepherd (above) as director, technology and solution design. Shepherd has 20 years’ experience of insurance technology solutions, working in large insurance groups both directly and as an advisor.

He previously worked for Prudential Assurance.

Barnett Waddingham has appointed Jon Palin (above) as an associate within its longevity consulting team. Palin will lead the technical development of the team’s offering to insurance companies and pension schemes.

He joins Barnett Waddingham from RMS.

Barnett Waddingham has announced that eight of its staff are newly qualified following the latest round of exam results from The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

They are Tom Pickles (below) and Fiona Pilcher from

the Amersham office, Heather Howard and Chris Collins from the Bromsgrove office, Elizabeth Wise and Luke Hothersall from the Leeds office, Lauren Allan (below) from the Liverpool office and James Tomlin from the London office.

Jim Ewing has been appointed chief risk officer to the Aegon

MATTHEW GEORGE Employer and area of work Aviva – protection pricing.

How would your best friend describe you?

Quite random at times.

What motivates you? Success; looking back n and knowing it has all been worthwhile.

What would be your personall motto? It’s a dog-eat-dog world.

Name five dream guests you would invite to your dinner party?

Bill Gates, Larry Page, Steve e Jobs, Neil stein. I’m Armstrong and Albert Einstein. sure they’d all have an interesting story to tell.

What’s your most ‘actuarial’ habit? Giving answers to at least eight decimal places.

If you could learn one

38

ACTUARY OF THE FUTURE random skill, what would you learn? I already have, solving a Rubik’s cube – it’s much easier than it looks.

If you could go back in history, who would you like to meet? Pythagoras, and tell him how

Favourite Excel function? Definitely Index and

What’s your most treasured possession? At the

Match, haven’t used a vlookup in years.

time it was my calculator when I thought I’d lost it, minutes before an actuarial exam.

How do you relax aaway from the office? I enjoy cycling cy through the North Yorkshire countryside.

Alternative caree career choice? My childhood dream drea was to become a Concorde pilot pilot; that went the same way the Concorde Con did.

Tell us some something unusual about yyourself I once won fr £5 from a race in the Scot Scottish Highlands. It was presented to me f in front of the Queen Mo Mother.

famous he’s become in classrooms today.

What are the top three things you would like to achieve in your lifetime? Qualify as an actuary within the next two years, own a house with an impressively long driveway, and go on an epic road trip across America.

If you ruled the world, what would you change first? Tax cuts for everyone.

Do you know an actuary destined for greatness?

You can nominate an Actuary of the Future by emailing

aotf@theactuary.com

THE ACTUARY • January/February ary 2014 2014 201 0114 www.theactuary.com

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28/01/2014 09:31

www.theactuaryjobs.com

Appointments

A P PO I N TME N TS To advertise your vacancies in the magazine and online please contact: Emmanuel Nettey +44 (0) 20 7880 6234 or emmanuel.nettey@redactive.co.uk

Come in out of the cold...

HFG’s Actuarial team have the market knowledge to help you take the next step in your career. Our team can offer you advice on current market opportunities, CV writing and interview techniques, preparing you for the future. For information on all of the current opportunities, please contact one of our consultants, or email actuarial@hfg.co.uk

Life Insurance Roles International Pricing Actuary

Life Insurance Consultant £30k - £90k Basic, London

£65k - £85k Basic, Surrey A growing international team requires a qualified Actuary to manage a team responsible for analysing, reviewing and providing expertise on life products being sold and developed overseas. A strong pricing and product development background is essential, with an understanding of international regulations being advantageous. Strong internal and external stakeholder management skills will be key. jack@hfg.co.uk

An influential boutique advisory group is looking to strengthen their Life Insurance team. The company is seeking a range of skills acquired from the life market, so whether you are a student Actuary or leading a team, if you are looking to move out of industry and work in consultancy, this is the opportunity for you. Excellent communication skills are a must. sophia@hfg.co.uk

Actuarial Analyst – Modelling

Pricing Actuarial Analyst £35k - £50k Basic, London

£35k - £55k Basic, South of England A fast-changing composite insurer is looking for an experienced Actuarial Analyst with a strong coding experience to work across its Life and Non-Life business. This is a fantastic chance to gain Life and General Insurance exposure and will provide a great platform for future career progression within either market. Extensive MoSes, Prophet or VIPitech coding experience is essential. jack@hfg.co.uk

A multinational life insurer is looking for an Actuarial Analyst to expand its technical pricing team. You will be a key contributor, working alongside experts, gaining full exposure to pricing niche products. The ideal candidate will be part qualified with prior life insurance experience who wants to develop their skills within a dynamic and growing team. sophia@hfg.co.uk

Risk Management Roles Actuary - Risk Analytics

Enterprise Risk Manager £70k - £100k Basic, London

£50k - £70k Basic, South East

A fantastic chance for an experienced, GI Actuary to join a highly regarded Risk function within a large P&C Insurer. You will gain exposure to various functions; providing recommendations to underwriters, reinsurance purchasing and pricing teams based on the results of quantitative underwriting risk models. Previous General Insurance experience essential, capital modelling and/or pricing experience preferred. james@hfg.co.uk

An excellent opportunity for an experienced Risk Manager to join a large UK Life insurer. You will be responsible for managing and designing the risk framework as well as ensuring appropriate operational risk capital is in place. Qualitative skills are essential as you will be expected to lead and mentor other members of the ERM team and challenge other parts of the business. erin@hfg.co.uk

Pensions & Investments Roles Corporate Advisory

Investment Consultancy £45k - £70k Basic, London

Take your career forward within a project based role, with exposure to a breadth of commercial issues. You will provide clients with innovative solutions across de-risking and liability management and benefit redesign. You will be a part to newly qualified Actuary, who is eager to progress their career in a cross-discipline environment at the forefront of the Pensions industry. miranda@hfg.co.uk

SOPHIA CROSSMAN

£40k - £60k Basic, Various This highly regarded advisory firm is seeking a dynamic Investment Consultants to work across investment strategy, monitoring and research.

You will benefit from high levels of client exposure, with accelerated career progression available for the right person. Previous investment experience within pension funds is essential and you will be nearly or recently qualified (FIA/CFA). miranda@hfg.co.uk

Life Insurance

JAMES KITT Risk Management

ERIN O’DONNELL Risk Management

MIRANDA WILKINSON Pensions & Investments

+44 (0) 207 337 1207 sophia@hfg.co.uk

+44 (0) 207 337 1202 james@hfg.co.uk

+44 (0) 207 337 1202 erin@hfg.co.uk

+44 (0) 207 337 8815 miranda@hfg.co.uk

+44 (0) 207 337 8800

www.highfinancegroup.co.uk January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY 39 www.theactuary.com

p39_ACT.02.14.indd 39

28/01/2014 14:29

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28/01/2014 15:23 15:12 26/11/2013

London : Chicago : Hong Kong : Singapore : Shanghai

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Life Actuary - Germany &OLHQW 'LUHFWRU &RUSRUDWH 7UXVWHH 6ROXWLRQV 6FRWODQG $WWUDFWLYH 6DODU\ %HQH¿WV 3DFNDJH 8SSHU 4XDUWLOH %RQXV DQG %HQH¿WV 3DFNDJH This global primary insurance company is looking to enhance their *HUPDQ RSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH DGGLWLRQ RI D TXDOL¿HG /LIH $FWXDU\ Principal tasks will revolve around Solvency II, MCEV calculation DQG LQWHUQDO PRGHOV <RX ZLOO DOVR GHYHORS JXLGHOLQHV IRU OLIH DFWXDULDO EDODQFHV DQG SULFLQJ SURGXFW DSSURYDO 7KH LGHDO FDQGLGDWH ZLOO EH D QHDU RU QHZO\ TXDOL¿HG DFWXDU\ ZLWK UHOHYDQW H[SHULHQFH LQ WKH OLIH LQVXUDQFH PDUNHW 3URSKHW PRGHOOLQJ VNLOOV DQG H[SHULHQFH ZLWK product development, pricing and/or reserving within life insurance DUH H[SHFWHG *RRG NQRZOHGJH RI PDUNHW FRQVLVWHQW SULQFLSOHV DQG YDOXDWLRQ ZRXOG EH DQ DGYDQWDJH &RQWDFW SKX QJRF#LSVJURXS FR XN +44 207 481 8686

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7KLV EOXH FKLS HPSOR\HU LV ORRNLQJ WR KLUH DQ H[SHULHQFHG pensions actuarial consultant to join this successful and JURZLQJ QDWLRQDO ¿UP 7KH WHDP DGYLVHV ERWK VSRQVRULQJ employers as well as trustee boards on pensions risk PDQDJHPHQW IXQGLQJ DQG LQYHVWPHQW VWUDWHJ\ &DQGLGDWHV ZLOO KDYH TXDOL¿HG DQG KDYH DW OHDVW \HDUV H[SHULHQFH PDQDJLQJ D SRUWIROLR RI FOLHQWV DGYLVLQJ RQ GH¿QHG EHQH¿W DQG GH¿QHG FRQWULEXWLRQ VFKHPHV +H 6KH ZLOO KDYH GHPRQVWUDEOH H[SHULHQFH RI ZLQQLQJ DQG PDQDJLQJ WKH GHOLYHU\ RI FRUSRUDWH SURMHFWV WR ERWK OLVWHG DQG SULYDWH FRPSDQLHV &RQWDFW DQWKRQ\ FKLWQLV#LSVJURXS FR XN +44 207 481 8686

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September 2013 â&#x20AC;¢ THE ACTUARY 41 www.theactuary.com

28/01/2014 14:31

Appointments

Chief Actuary

Build something important. Our future.

Location: Exeter, Devon Salary: Competitive Exeter Family Friendly is an expanding Friendly Society offering award winning private medical and income protection insurance. In order to assist with ambitious growth plans we are now looking to recruit a Chief Actuary to lead and expand our Actuarial team.

New to the organisation, the Chief Actuary position is an exciting business opportunity. The appointment will suit an experienced entrepreneurial Actuary who is keen to be in a commercial role. The main responsibilities will include developing new market competitive products, providing input to key business decisions, leading a well-established team and getting involved in all aspects of technical actuarial work.

We are looking for a natural leader, comfortable with working at fast pace to deliver multiple projects with tight deadlines. In addition, we are looking for someone who is happy to roll up their sleeves within the technical work as well as having oversight of the actuarial team.

For more information about this role, BENElTS OF WORKING AT %XETER &AMILY Friendly and to apply, please visit:

Chief Actuary Sevenoaks, Kent You won’t just contribute to our business. You will actively shape our performance, drive our growth, influence our product development and build on our 35-year record of success as a specialist UK insurer to the building services sector.

So, yes, you will be a qualified Actuary. But you will also have a strong knowledge of Claims Reserving practices, a good understanding of UK commercial insurance pricing modelling tools, and a detailed working knowledge of Solvency II and ORSA guidelines.

Add to that your proven communication and product development skills, and we can promise you an environment of exceptional variety and scope.

www.exeterfamily.co.uk/us/careers

Interested? Then email your CV and a covering letter to Farhana.Ali@eca.co.uk

Closing date: 28 February 2014

www.ecic.co.uk

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THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

p42_ACT.02.14.indd 42

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www.theactuaryjobs.com

General Insurance Roles Head of Actuarial

Director £150k - £200k Basic, London

£100k - £130k Basic, London

Expanding consultancy is looking for a General Insurance Director to help lead their team. The right person should be qualified with experience and looking for a new challenge, with proven progression to Partner available. Experience across reserving and capital would be beneficial and managerial experience is essential. william@hfg.co.uk

This specialist insurer is looking for a qualified Actuary to work closely with their CFO whilst managing a small team. The role will initially focus on running the capital and reserving functions, with scope to bring the pricing in-house as well. The right person should have the ability to liaise with external consultants as well as the board internally. william@hfg.co.uk

Head of Capital

Head of Motor and Home Modelling £100k - £130k Basic, London

£100k - £130k Basic, London

Growing Lloyd’s syndicate, with an established pricing and reserving function, is looking for an experienced Capital Actuary. Reporting to the CRO, you will take responsibility for the entire capital function. This opportunity will suit a confident self starter who is looking for an exciting challenge and the chance to take genuine ownership in this area. william@hfg.co.uk

This leading personal lines insurer is looking for a strong qualified Actuary to join its established team. You will take ownership of the risk pricing models and look at their impact on the business. Given the nature of this role, successful candidates must have high level management experience and the ability to demonstrate leadership and support to a large team. rupa@hfg.co.uk

Reserving Actuary

Pricing Actuary £100k - £120k Basic, London

£90k - £125k Basic, London

Join this leading Lloyd’s syndicate, reporting directly to the Head of Reserving. You will be a qualified Actuary, with significant reserving experience who is looking to work in a strong and dynamic team. The role will manage a range of lines of business whilst working closely with the Pricing team. Excellent progression opportunities are available for the right individual. william@hfg.co.uk

This niche but growing Lloyd’s syndicate is looking for a qualified Actuary. Working closely with the Head of Pricing, the successful candidate will see themselves working with underwriters on a daily basis across all classes of business, as well as various other teams. You must ideally have some London Market pricing experience to be considered. rupa@hfg.co.uk

Capital Analyst

Non-life Senior Consultant £40k - £80k Basic, London

£55k - £70k Basic, London

An exciting opportunity has risen with this expanding US backed insurer. They are looking for a student / newly qualified Actuary to support the Capital Modelling Manager in all elements of capital modelling, ICA, parameterisation, exposure management and underwriting as well as ad-hoc reserving. To be successful you must have GI experience and a passion for capital. rupa@hfg.co.uk

Opportunity for a motivated part-qualified Actuary, with a background in reserving or capital, to join this market leading Consultancy. The role will be capital focused, with exposure to a range of non-traditional actuarial areas including Cat modelling, M&A, business analytics and finance. This is the ideal position to broaden your skills in a dynamic and supportive environment. chanelle@hfg.co.uk

London Market Pricing Actuary

Capital Risk Actuary £35k - £50k Basic, London

£45k - £60k Basic, London This leading Lloyd’s syndicate is currently looking to add a commercially minded senior analyst to their pricing team. This role will entail working across all lines of business, liaising regularly with the Underwriting and Actuarial functions and working closely with the Head of Pricing. The ideal candidate will be part-qualified with significant experience of pricing within the London Market. chanelle@hfg.co.uk

Join the Risk function of this international Insurer, and develop your capital skills from an Actuarial and Risk perspective. You will gain exposure to the ERM, reserving, underwriting and operational risk teams, providing you with a strong insight into the business. To be successful you will be an actuarial student with capital modelling experience. chanelle@hfg.co.uk

Contract Roles Longevity Actuary – FTC

Capital Contractors

£70,000 - £90,000 (pro-rata), 6 months, South East

£600 - £1000 per day, 6 - 12 months, London General Insurer is looking for a number of Capital Actuaries from analyst to experienced level with a strong Igloo background. There are various roles across modelling and documentation work, to be considered you should be able to start work very shortly. william@hfg.co.uk

This leading Longevity team seeks a nearly/newly qualified Actuary to join their team. Experience in assessing mortality rates and setting longevity risk assumptions is essential and the ability to create new assumptions from scratch is highly desired. This is a great chance to build on prior longevity and mortality experience and to work in one of the industry’s most advanced teams. jack@hfg.co.uk

WILLIAM GALLIMORE

RUPA PITHIYA

CHANELLE ROSENBAUM

Director

General Insurance

General Insurance

Life Insurance

+44 (0) 207 337 8826

+44 (0) 207 337 1200

+44 (0) 207 337 8827

+44 (0) 207 337 1202

william@hfg.co.uk

rupa@hfg.co.uk

chanelle@hfg.co.uk

jack@hfg.co.uk

0207 337 8800

www.hfg.co.uk

JACK SNAPE

actuarial@hfg.co.uk September 2013 • THE ACTUARY 43 www.theactuary.com

p43_ACT.02.14.indd 43

28/01/2014 14:35

Appointments

In-house Global Pensions Risk Manager London

£125,000 + Bonus

This is a fantastic opportunity for a quali¿ed pension’s actuary to take a senior position within the Global Pensions Risk Management team of a high-pro¿le FTSE 100 multinational. Working directly with the Global Head of Pensions and Bene¿ts Risk, the role will involve ensuring that the ¿rm’s pension schemes are suitably designed and administered as well as developing and owning governance structures for multiple schemes in a variety of regulatory environments across the world. International consulting experience and language skills are preferable but not essential.

Please contact Ian Povey or Rob Bulpitt for further information.

Contact Rob Bulpitt

Rupert Rickard Ian Povey

Director Actuarial, Pensions Head of of Actuarial, Insurance & Insurance RiskManagement Management Pensions Risk 020 7092 3237

Actuarial,of Pensions Insurance Risk Manager Actuarial&Non-Life and Management Insurance Risk Management 020 7092 3219 3265

rob.bulpitt@eamesconsulting.com

rupert.rickard@eamesconsulting.com Ian.povey@eamesconsulting.com

Office Number

For current opportunities please visit

+44 (0)20 7092 3200

www.eamesconsulting.com

www.eamesconsulting.com

3HQVLRQV ,QYHVWPHQWV _ 1RQ /LIH _ /LIH +HDOWK 8. _ (XURSH _ $VLD 3DFL¿F

Overseas Opportunities Head of Actuarial, Malaysia (GI)

Head of Pricing, Kuala Lumpur (Life)

Dependent on Experience

A leading international insurer requires a senior Pricing Actuary to focus on product development and market innovation. You will play a key role in analysing sector trends to identify key business opportunities. Reporting to the Chief Actuary, you will have dedicated resources and genuine ownership across the department as well as the freedom to develop new products.

Product Actuary, Singapore

Manager – Insurance Risk, Hong Kong

SGD $140,000 – $180,000 + bonus

Up to HKD 800k per annum + bonus + study

A market leading reinsurer is seeking a talented Product Actuary to join their growing Asian business. Based in Singapore you will work with senior management taking responsibility for a variety of research programmes, new market entry strategy and key product development. Previous product and reinsurance experience is essential with Asia market knowledge preferable.

Excellent opportunity for a nearly / newly qualified Actuary to move in to Insurance Risk at a regional level. This is a newly created position that will call on your actuarial background to identify, quantify and develop a robust risk framework that can be flexed to local requirements. Previous risk modelling, product and / or investment knowledge will be valuable in this role.

Actuarial Analyst – Solvency II, Hong Kong

Actuary Analyst – Reporting, Hong Kong

Up to HKD 550k per annum + bonus + study

Up to HKD 500k per annum + bonus + study support

Join the regional Solvency II team of this high growth global Insurance firm, with coverage across Asia Pacific. This is a fantastic learning and development opportunity for a technically strong nearly qualified Life Actuary. Looking to gain managerial experience you will remain hands-on in providing Solvency ll, financial reporting and reserving support to local teams.

Be part of the Corporate Reporting team, working in all aspects of actuarial reporting – EEV, IFRS, Solvency II. You will be assisting local teams across the region with annual, half year and quarterly reporting as well as business planning and forecasting. You will be a nearly qualified Actuary, with previous exposure to budget forecasting and cash flow management.

Clare Bethell, Director - International Graeme Braidwood, Senior Consultant - International Hallie Chin, Consultant - International 44

Up to RM 400k per annum (guide)

Global Non-Life insurer with an impressive balance sheet and profit record is seeking a Head of Actuarial at business unit level.

Leading a team of talented Actuaries, the role involves hands-on work across pricing, reserving and capital modelling as well as taking part in exciting ad-hoc projects. Relevant candidates will be qualified and be able to demonstrate strong managerial ability.

clare@hfg.com.sg graeme@hfg.com.sg hallie@hfg.com.sg

+65 6829 7153 +65 6829 7160 +65 6829 7159

THE ACTUARY • January/February 2014 www.theactuary.com

p44_ACT.02.14.indd 44

28/01/2014 14:05

www.theactuaryjobs.com

Celebrating 10 years of actuarial recruitment – will your 2014 be bright?

January/February 2014 • THE ACTUARY 45 www.theactuary.com

p45_ACT.02.14.indd 45

28/01/2014 14:46

PLAN YOUR NEXT MOVE

ON THE MOVE

New features available through your smartphone See the latest job listings View all the jobs from the website Search or browse to find the right opportunities Create and update your live email job alerts View jobs directly from your email alerts Save and apply for jobs Save jobs to your profile Email jobs to yourself or friends Apply for the right jobs first using your saved CV Keep track of all your jobseeking activity

Go to www.theactuaryjobs.com 46

THE ACTUARY • October 2013 www.theactuary.com

p46_ACT.02.14.indd 46

28/01/2014 15:13

Guidance throughout your career.

www.theactuaryjobs.com

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September 2013 â&#x20AC;˘ THE ACTUARY 47 www.theactuary.com

28/01/2014 15:13

Appointments NON-LIFE STRATEGY LEADER £ excellent + bonus + benefits NON-LIFE & LIFE LONDON

NON-LIFE MODEL DEVELOPMENT

PRICING ACTUARY - EXCLUSIVE

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

£ very attractive package STAR1061

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR1787

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR1542

Global management consulting firm is seeking exceptional actuaries from the insurance sector to join in its success. Successful candidates will demonstrate and quantify the business impact of projects undertaken.

Our client is seeking a high-calibre pricing actuary with a track record of building strong relationships to lead, manage and develop a team within a fast-growing business.

Our client is seeking a qualified actuary to develop its capital and reserving capability. A natural and gifted communicator, you will have hands-on experience of building and coding capital models.

HEAD OF MODELLING - MOTOR

PRICING MANAGER

RESERVING ACTUARY

up to £100k + bonus + benefits

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

up to £80k + bonus + benefits

NON-LIFE LONDON/SOUTH EAST

STAR1782

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR1725

NON-LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR1776

This is an fantastic opportunity for a modelling expert to take up a key role with a leading insurer.

Set the direction of all technical pricing developments and help the business realise its targets.

Seeking a qualified non-life actuary with proven pricing ability to contribute to the Commercial Lines pricing strategy, developing and presenting pricing recommendations to senior management.

Develop your career with this expanding organisation who require an experienced reserving expert to lead a team of analysts. You will have a track record of building and maintaining productive relationships.

LONDON MARKET CAPITAL

NON-LIFE CONSULTANCY

LONDON MARKET ANALYST

up to £70k + bonus + benefits

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

up to £60k + bonus + benefits

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR1714

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR1659

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR1769

Leading London Market underwriter seeks a non-life candidate with strong experience of capital modelling techniques and model building to focus on the enhancement of the current capital model.

If you are a part-qualified or qualified actuary with experience of capital, reserving or pricing models, then join this leading consultancy where you will apply your skills in a wide range of exciting projects.

If you are on track to qualify, have strong technical skills and an established knowledge of general insurance, ideally within the London Market, this is a role that will expose you to the best of everything!

NON-LIFE CAPITAL MODELLING ANALYST

CAPITAL MODELLING

TELEMATICS ANALYST

up to £60k + bonus + benefits

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

up to £50k + bonus + benefits

NON-LIFE SOUTH COAST

STAR1754

NON-LIFE NORTH WEST

STAR1777

NON-LIFE LONDON/SOUTH EAST

STAR1784

Opportunity to learn cutting-edge capital management techniques and modelling systems at a growing and highly successful personal lines provider.

Play a leading role in the capital modelling projects of a leading financial services company.

The successful candidate will have good leadership and management capability with the ability to influence a wide range of stakeholders.

Work as part of a cross-functional team to design and implement a market-leading telematics analytical platform. Support telematics throughout the pricing, underwriting and wider business processes within the policy lifecycle.

COMMERCIAL LINES PRICING ANALYST

HOUSEHOLD PRICING

ACTUARIAL ANALYST - LONDON MARKET

up to £50k + bonus + benefits

up to £50k + bonus + benefits

up to £45k + bonus + benefits

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR1786

A brilliant opportunity for a part-qualified non-life actuary to take up a key role within the commerical lines pricing team of a leading insurer. Please contact us for more details.

NON-LIFE LONDON/SOUTH EAST

STAR1781

NON-LIFE LONDON

STAR1768

If you are a part-qualified non-life actuary, join this leading insurer and take your career to the next level. The successful candidate will be immersed in the pricing process for the household line of business.

Does the world of risk intrigue you? This is an ideal role for a part-qualified actuary with some insurance experience, a good eye for detail, and the ability to handle large datasets.

PRICING ACTUARY

HEAD OF MODELLING - HOME

ENTERPRISE RISK ACTUARY

up to £80k + bonus + benefits

up to £100k + bonus + benefits

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

STARVACANCIES NON-LIFE MIDLANDS

STAR1738

Seeking a qualified non-life actuary to take the lead on a range of Personal and Commercial lines projects for the Underwriting team. Excellent communication and people-management skills with strong technical knowledge essential.

48

STAR1783

Seeking a qualified actuary to deliver on all aspects of household pricing for a major insurance group. Develop yourself and become a key player as you shape the direction of the group's technical pricing strategy.

NON-LIFE EAST ANGLIA

STAR1758

Seeking a talented financial or insurance professional to review, challenge and catalyse improvements to the management of risk within a leading insurance business.

Antony Buxton FIA Anton

Lance Randles MBA La

Paul C Cook

Joanne Young Joa

MANAGING DIRECTOR MANAG

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR AS

SENIOR CONSULTANT

OPERATIONS DIRECTOR OPER

THE ACTUARY • September 2013 www.theactuary.com M +44 7766 414 560 E antony.buxton@staractuarial.com

p48-49_ACT.02.14.indd 48

NON-LIFE LONDON/SOUTH EAST

M +44 7889 007 861 E lance.randles@staractuarial.com

M +44 7740 285 139 E paul.cook@staractuarial.com

M +44 7739 345 946 E joanne.young@staractuarial.com

28/01/2014 12:39

www.theactuaryjobs.com LIFE PENSIONS SENIOR VALUATIONS MANAGER up to £100k + bonus + benefits

up to £100k + bonus + benefits LIFE LONDON

SENIOR CORPORATE ACTUARY

STAR1770

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

LIFE SOUTH COAST

STAR1756

LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR1765

Leading insurer has an unrivalled opportunity for a talented individual with a strong understanding of the key drivers of risk and capital in insurance to deliver their Internal Model validation framework project.

Opportunity for an actuarial leader to leverage their technical and management skills in a growing and successful business. An excellent chance to take on a management role within a growing provider.

Global financial services group is seeking a qualified actuary to be responsible for the management and leadership of unit linked monitoring, reinsurance and product management activities.

INTERNATIONAL PRICING ACTUARY

RISK ACTUARY

RESEARCH AND PRICING ACTUARY

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

£ excellent package

LIFE LONDON, SOUTH EAST

STAR1752

up to £80k + bonus + benefits

LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR1785

LIFE LONDON

STAR1719

Leading life company is seeking a qualified actuary to provide pricing and actuarial expertise for the development and maintenance of all new and existing International products.

Leading insurer seeks qualified life actuary with strong risk experience and excellent communication skills. This is a fantastic opportunity to build your profile in a key role reporting to the CRO.

With experience of the UK protection market, and superb communication and relationship building skills, this is an ideal career move for the ambitious part-qualified or qualified life actuary.

FINANCIAL REPORTING ACTUARY

PRICING ACTUARY

MODELLING ACTUARY

up to £68k + bonus + benefits

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

up to £60k + bonus + benefits

LIFE SCOTLAND

STAR1751

LIFE LONDON

STAR1698

LIFE BRISTOL

STAR1634

Major financial services company is seeking a qualified life actuary to produce and consolidate internal and external financial reporting results for the UK business.

Seeking a part-qualified or qualified actuary with pricing, financial reporting or actuarial modelling experience to take up a key role within the pricing function of a global insurer.

Major life company is seeking a qualified actuary to manage the control and gatekeeping processes involved in the development of actuarial models.

NEW BUSINESS ACTUARY

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ANALYST

SYSTEMS ANALYST

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

£ excellent + bonus + benefits

up to £50k + bonus + benefits

LIFE SOUTH EAST

STAR1745

LIFE LONDON

STAR1746

LIFE SOUTH COAST

STAR1757

Market-leading life company seeks a qualified actuary with MCEV experience to influence the firm’s performance through modelling, analysis and communication of the new business results.

This is an exciting role for a part-qualified actuary within a leading product development team, working closely with marketing and sales.

Wide-ranging product experience and Prophet knowledge an advantage.

Opportunity for an actuarial systems specialist to expand their range of actuarial-modelling platforms within a successful company based at a highly desirable location.

PRICING ANALYST

PRICING AND PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

CORPORATE CONSULTING

up to £46k + bonus + benefits

up to £45k + bonus + benefits

£ to attract the best

LIFE SOUTH COAST

STAR1755

Great opportunity to leverage exceptional communication and stakeholder-management skills in a pricing role with a leading life insurer.

LIFE SOUTH WEST

STAR1753

Seeking a part-qualified actuary to provide actuarial expertise to deliver business objectives as part of the R&D team. Apply your skills to pricing, investment propositions and business development.

PENSIONS MIDLANDS

STAR1773

Leading consultancy seeks high-quality pensions actuary with experience of business development in the corporate pensions sector.

This is a fantastic opportunity to work closely with the practice leadership of a major firm.

Star Actuarial Futures Ltd is an employment agency and employment business

SENIOR BUSINESS RISK MANAGER

www.staractuarial.com PENSIONS LEADERSHIP

DC PENSIONS LEADER

PENSIONS FAST-TRACK

£ to attract the best

£ excellent package

£ to attract the best

PENSIONS NATIONWIDE

STAR1788

We are working on a variety of Senior Manager, Director and Partner level consulting roles with a wide range of clients. Please contact us for more details of these fantastic opportunities for high-flying pensions actuaries.

STAR1722

Seeking a pensions leader to manage a DC team, creating and implementing a strategic vision and taking responsibility for the P&L. Please contact us for further details of this exciting opportunity.

PENSIONS MIDLANDS

STAR1775

Our client seeks an exceptional part-qualified or qualified pensions actuary to join its growing midlands based practice. This is a great opportunity to accelerate your development within a market leader.

Louis Manson Lou

Irene Paterson FFA Ire

Peter Baker

Clare Roberts

MANAGING DIRECTOR MAN

PARTNER PAR

SENIOR CONSULTANT

SENIOR CONSULTANT

M +44 7595 023 983 E louis.manson@staractuarial.com

p48-49_ACT.02.14.indd 49

PENSIONS LONDON

M +44 7545 424 206 E irene.paterson@staractuarial.com

M +44 7860 602 586 E peter.baker@staractuarial.com

September 2013 • THE ACTUARY 49 www.theactuary.com M +44 7714 490 922 E clare.roberts@staractuarial.com

28/01/2014 12:40

Appointments GENERAL INSURANCE - UK Lead Actuary Sarah Robins

Sussex £150,000 + Benefits + Bonus

Deputy Global Reserving Actuary London Paul Francis £130,000 + Benefits + Bonus

My client is looking for a Lead Actuary to manage the underwriting actuarial modelling function for all classes of business. You must be a qualified Actuary and must have motor insurance pricing and underwriting experience.

Global (Re)insurer seeking a commercially mature Actuary to manage and coordinate global P&C reserving projects. Knowledge of SII, ResQ and working in a geographically dispersed team would be a distinct advantage. Excellent communication is a prerequisite.

Capital Manager Paul Francis

Actuarial Manager Sarah Robins

London £120,000 + Benefits + Bonus

Leeds £80,000

Entrepreneurial Lloyd’s syndicate with extremely exciting growth plans are seeking a capital orientated Actuary to manage syndicate activity and syndicates managed through the MGA. You will enjoy working with an executive management team. IGLOO is an advantage.

My client is looking for an Actuarial Manager to play a leading role and provide expert advice to the business on reserving, pricing and M.I. You must be a qualified G.I. Actuary and must be able to operate independently at times.

Capital Modelling Analyst Rachel Kelly

Reserving Analyst Rachel Kelly

London Up to £60,000

Leading global insurer is seeking a part qualified Actuary to work on a wide range of capital modelling activities. This is a high profile expanding area of the business with challenging work and regular exposure to senior management.

London Up to £50,000

Highly regarded Lloyd’s syndicate seeks a part qualified Actuary to be responsible for all aspects of the reserving process across a diverse range of business. You will work closely with underwriters, finance & pricing teams. Minimum two years experience required.

CONTRACTS - GENERAL INSURANCE - UK Capital Actuary - ReMetrica Elise Salter

London £700 - £1200/day

I have multiple vacancies that require candidates with ReMetrica experience. Roles vary from Capital Analyst seeking 2-3 years ReMetrica experience through to Head of Capital that requires expert level ReMetrica development experience.

Capital Actuary - IGLOO Elise Salter

London £800 - £1000/day

We are seeking capital modelling actuaries for multiple vacancies within the UK G.I. market. The roles mainly revolve around model validation and documentation. Candidates with IGLOO modelling experience are highly desirable.

LIFE INSURANCE - UK Risk Director Clare Nash

London £150,000 + Package

Variable Annuity Actuary Clare Nash

London (City) £100,000 + Package

Due to growth, my client is seeking to appoint a qualified Actuary to lead a large, market leading team. You will have a solid technical background (Risk/Capital) and enjoy playing a major part in shaping the future progression of the organisation.

My client seeks a qualified Actuary to play a key role in their growth strategy. You will (ideally) have knowledge of variable annuities and have a strong background in financial reporting. This role is broad and will provide outstanding career progression.

Business Development Actuary London David Parker £75,000 - £100,000 + Package

Financial Reporting Actuary David Parker

Do you have a strong capital/pricing background in addition to client-facing experience? A niche global organisation seeks a nearly/ newly qualified to five years PQE Actuary for a commercially focussed role. Excellent communication skills are essential.

A fast growing UK insurer has a newly created opportunity for a qualified Reporting Actuary. You will ideally have prior experience of non-profit/EV reporting but other metrics can be considered. Additional Prophet user experience beneficial.

Risk Actuary Richard Howard

Corporate Actuary Richard Howard

London £60,000 - £70,000 + Benefits + Bonus

Our clients have a number of requirements within risk oversight, looking for nearly/newly qualified life actuaries with experience in Solvency II, ICA, insurance risk and regulatory reporting. London based opportunities at group level.

North West/South East £75,000 + Package

Surrey £60,000 - £70,000 + Benefits + Bonus

Excellent opportunity for a qualified Actuary to join the finance department of this leading provider of life and pensions. They are looking for a good knowledge of financial reporting metrics and excellent verbal and written communication skills.

CONTRACTS - UK Prophet Developer Benjamin Moses

North England Up to £600/day

Our client is looking for a Prophet Developer to assist them for 2-3 months with their model transformation project. The successful candidate will have highly technical prophet skills and excellent communication skills, both written and oral.

50

Risk Actuary Benjamin Moses

Edinburgh Up to £550/day

Our market leading client is looking for a contractor to join their team until the end of 2014 as a maternity cover. The focus of the role will be on risk oversight of insurance capital and liquidity. A strong working knowledge of risk appetite will be essential.

THE ACTUARY • September 2013 www.theactuary.com

p50-51_ACT.02.14.indd 50

28/01/2014 12:42

www.theactuaryjobs.com ASIA Head of Portfolio Management Gary Rushton

Hong Kong £££Competitive

We are looking for an experienced Actuary to lead and drive the execution of the technical aspects to manage all the in-force portfolio for my clients life and health business across Asia. Strong stakeholder management with extensive PQE. High profile role!!

Senior Vice President - Product Strategy Gary Rushton

Hong Kong £££Competitive

As part of the senior management team you will be responsible for the strategic oversight and business management of my clients new business development across North Asia. Background in product development, distribution and marketing highly desirable.

Head of Reporting Hamza Mush

Malaysia £££Competitive

Highly reputable multinational seeking an experienced and qualified Reporting Actuary, ideally with Asian/Malaysian life insurance experience. You will oversee the reporting function and lead and mentor a team of young/dynamic actuaries.

Head of Products Strategy & Governance Philip Chau

Hong Kong £££Competitive

This is an unrivalled opportunity for an experienced Product Actuary to spearhead the products team in Asia Pacific for a leading multinational insurer. You will need to be a commercial thinker with strong communication skills and technical skills.

Head of Pricing - Reinsurance Toby Weston

Hong Kong £££Competitive

Our client is a global reinsurance business who are looking for a senior Actuary with deep reinsurance expertise, particularly in pricing and nat cat. Superb opportunity to lead a team and develop innovative services to clients. Mandarin is essential for this role.

Capital Modelling Lead Toby Weston

Hong Kong £££Competitive

A multinational professional services firm with a strong client base in Asia are seeking a non-life Actuary. You must have strong technical modelling skills (IGLOO/Remetrica preferred) and ambition to play a key part of a rapidly expanding consulting practice.

EUROPE Senior General Insurance Actuaries Patrick McMahon

Dublin - Ireland €150,000 + Benefits + Bonus

General Insurance – UK Paul Francis

0207 649 9469

Rob Bentham

0207 649 9351

Sarah Robins

0207 310 8552

Rachel Kelly

0207 310 8579

Contracts - G.I. - UK Elise Salter

0207 649 9355

Life Insurance - UK Clare Nash

0207 649 9350

David Parker

0207 310 8649

Richard Howard

0207 649 9356

Contracts - Life Insurance - UK/Europe Benjamin Moses

0207 310 8793

Asia Jonny Plews

+852 5804 9200

Gary Rushton

+852 5804 9223

Toby Weston

+852 5804 9042

Philip Chau

+852 5804 9287

Hamza Mush

+852 6086 9879

France Emérique Opou

+33 1 76 77 46 30

Agathe Ibazizen

+33 1 76 77 46 31

Ireland

Excellent opportunities with a number of internationally renowned insurance businesses in Dublin; the roles are across varied platforms and require senior qualified actuaries with a mix of reserving, pricing, capital and risk experience.

Patrick McMahon

Senior G.I. Actuary Emina Biscevic

Niels van Nieuwkerk

+31 20 716 8327

North Rhine - Westphalia €85,000 - €95,000

+353 1 437 0625

Benelux

Julien Fabius

+31 20 716 8450

Looking for a Senior G.I. Actuary to join a global insurer in a niche role. You will focus on planning and analysis of capital requirements as well as managing the ORSA-process for the local units. Three years PQE required.

Laurence Baken

+32 24 012 249

Model Development - Market Risk Julien Fabius

Manuel Lovell

+49 8921 093 362

Our client, a large insurance group in The Netherlands is currently looking to hire a senior Model Developer, based in Utrecht. This role will focus on market risk, ALM and interest rate risk model for the insurance entity. Offers career progression to Manager.

Emina Biscevic

+49 89 3803 8965

Alessio Montaruli

+49 89 2109 3339

G.I. Reinsurance Pricing - English Speaker Manuel Lovell

Switzerland

Utrecht €83,000

Munich €€€Competitive

A leading name in reinsurance is looking to hire a senior Pricing Actuary to build their strength on short-tail and European commercial lines. You will be in regular contact with clients, senior management and underwriters.

Actuarial Consultant Laurence Baken

Luxembourg Attractive Package

Leading financial and actuarial consulting company based in Luxembourg. Experience in life insurance required. You will work in Solvency II implementations & IFR conversions, audit support to insurance companies, insurance risk management consulting.

Prophet Developer with German Libraries Alessio Montaruli

Cologne, Germany €800+/day

Our client, a global life insurer, is currently looking for a Prophet Developer to support their Prophet team as a contractor for 12 months. The candidate will have experience with the German libraries and be fluent in English. German language is not required.

p50-51_ACT.02.14.indd 51

Germany

Audrey Dresen

+41 43 508 0444

Katherina Wein

+41 43 508 0509

Please contact one of the team for further information on any of the opportunities above or visit www.ojassociates.com/jobs

General Contact Details:

E

actuary@ojassociates.com

W www.ojassociates.com @OJAssociates

September 2013 • THE ACTUARY 51 www.theactuary.com

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Appointments www.the-arc.co.uk

The Actuarial Recruitment Company

A fresh approach

Transaction Analyst London

General Insurance Circa £100K

Motor Pricing London or Bristol

General Insurance To £70K

This specialist actuarial role within the capital markets will provide support for structuring and pricing of non-life investments. The role will sit within a multidisciplinary team and will fit with a dynamic individual with very good interpersonal skills and who has a background in reinsurance pricing. Knowledge of property cat modelling and very good IT and analytical skills will be required.

The client is open to part qualified as well as qualified actuarial candidates. Ref: ARC22500

This is a standalone actuarial role providing pricing support for a significant motor portfolio. The roleholder will be required to develop and maintain underwriting analytics, provide management reports and analyses on claims experience as well as customer profiling. The role requires someone with a good knowledge of the UK motor market with experience of reserving techniques, stochastic and GLM modelling. Good written and verbal communication skills will be needed. There is flexibility on the role location.

Ref: ARC26241

Reserving Manager London

Actuarial Analyst London

General Insurance Circa £90K

A qualified actuary is needed for this international insurer to manage the Lloyd’s and European branch reserving across a range of property and casualty lines. Managing a small team the roleholder with have extensive interaction with senior management, finance, claims and underwriting areas. Prospective candidates should have a background in London Market or commercial lines reserving, have good technical ability as well as excellent communication skills.

Ref: ARC26242

General Insurance Circa £55K

A part qualified actuary is needed for a reserving role within an international reinsurance and specialty insurance business. The client is looking for someone with 2 to 4 years of general insurance experience, ideally from either a London Market or commercial lines retail background. They want someone who is technically strong and is happy to take on responsibility quickly. Good interpersonal skills and ideally knowledge of ResQ required.

Ref: ARC26243

Call us anytime including evenings and weekends on 020 7717 9705 or email enquiries@the-arc.co.uk Andy Clark BSc FIA Roger Massey BSc MBA FIA

0781 333 7891 0781 398 9016

andy@the-arc.co.uk roger@the-arc.co.uk The Actuarial Recruitment Company is an employment agency

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