Burden or Benefit? The Role of RO and PV in the Abu Dhabi Power and Water system Bruce Smith, Planning and Forecasting Director, ADWEC January 2017 1
Draft for discussion
ADWEC’s Planning Objectives Defined in Law and Licence: Policy directions (e.g. emissions targets, technology choices)
Security of Supply
Minimise Total System Cost
2
Draft for discussion
The Impact of Gas Cost on Generation Cost
For gas fired generation we are moving from a world fuel was less than 50% of the cost to one where it is likely to be over 80% 3
Draft for discussion
The Impact of Gas Cost on Generation Cost
4
Draft for discussion
Gas Costs Saved by PV 10 9 8 Marginal gas price ($/MMBTU) Range of bids 7 received by ADEWA 6 5 4 Range of corresponding gas prices
3 2 1 0 20
Unweighted LEC of $29.2 MW/h equivalent to 10.7 fils/KWh 30
40
50
60
70
80
90
LCOE for Solar PV ($/MWh)
5
Draft for discussion
Why RO? • • • •
Lower energy consumption Lower capital cost (higher variable O &M) Greater operational flexibility Unit cost less affected by changes in demand 6000 Gas cost to generate electricity that the steam could have produced
5000
4000 Cost ($/MIGD) 3000
2000
Direct electricity cost
1000
0
Variable O&M cost
RO LRMC
MSF LRMC
MED LRMC
Capex cost
6
Draft for discussion
Why RO? 50
System Water Production Costs in 2020 vs Gas Price
45
Water Production Cost in AED/TIG
40
46.4 40.5
35
34.6
30 25
25.7
20
19.8
15 13.9 10 5 0
2
1
1
2
3
4
3
4
5
6
7
8
6
5
9
10
11
12
Gas Price in USD/MMBTU
New RO Plant
Total System
7
Draft for discussion
Thank You
8