Iws day1 1430 1450 ed james presentation

The GCC Water Sector Projects Market International Water Summit 2017

17 January 2017, Abu Dhabi, IWS Presented by Ed James Director of Content & Analysis Edward.james@meed.com @EdJamesMEED © 2013 MEED Insight

All the project information in this presentation is sourced from MEED Projects MEED Projects is a Middle East, North and East Africa project tracking platform. It has two major functions; it is a business development tool to help you find new business opportunities and an analysis tool so you can assess the feasibility of potential new markets and projects.

5 key reasons to sign up for a demo: •

Identify new business opportunities from over 14,300 active projects worth over $7 trillion

•

Improve performance in current markets and evaluate new markets with 20 countries covered

•

Build the right company relationships using our database of over 11,200 companies on live projects

•

Target over 18,000 key decision makers ahead of your competitors

•

Forecast market developments by country and project type to inform your strategic planning

© 2013 MEED Insight

Historical awards Value of GCC contract awards by country, 2008-15 ($m) 80,000

70,000

2015 total = $177bn

60,000

2008-15 total = $1.2 trillion

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Bahrain 2008 2

Source: MEED Projects

Kuwait 2009

2010

Oman 2011

Qatar 2012

2013

Saudi Arabia 2014

UAE

2015 © 2014 MEED Projects

Market Analysis by Sector Value of GCC Contracts Awarded by Sector, 2010 – 2015 ($m) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

0

2010 3

Source: MEED Projects

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 performance

Value of GCC contracts awarded 2016 ($m) 45,000

Total = $109bn

40,000

2015 total = $178bn 35,000

Only Bahrain and the UAE have performed 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Bahrain 4

Source: MEED Projects

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

UAE

2015/16 comparison Comparison of GCC awards 2015/2016 ($m) 60,000

50,000

40,000

2015 2016

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Bahrain 5

Source: MEED Projects

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

UAE

2015/16 comparison Comparison of GCC sector awards 2015/2016 ($m) 80,000

70,000 60,000

Worst year since 2005 for investment in new power and water projects

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

6

Source: MEED Projects

2015 2016

Desalination key figures Key GCC desalination sector statistics, 2015-20

Country

2015 installed 2015 peak desalination water demand capacity (MIGD) (MIGD)

Peak water demand forecast 2020 (MIGD)**

Peak water demand CAGR (20132020 - %)

Target installed desalination capacity 2020 (MIGD)

Additional desalination capacity requirement (MIGD)

UAE – Abu Dhabi

916

852

1,089

4

1,252

336

UAE –Dubai

470

337

390

4

470

-

328 (2014)

324*

548

10

636

308

Kuwait

480

460

780

10

1,000

520

Oman

146

162*

288

6

316

170

144 (2014)

163*

189

3

181

37

1,621

968 (2014)

1,591

na

2,202

581

Qatar

Bahrain Saudi Arabia**

Total 4,105 3,266 4,875 6,057 1,952 Sources: MEED Projects; Adwec; Dewa; Kahramaa; MEW; OPWP; EWA; ECRA *includes demand met from groundwater sources; **2020 demand forecast is based on MEED own forecase NOTE: actual production capacity is lower than 7 Source: FTdesign capacity. Also note that additional capacity requirement excludes new capacity to replace obsolete ©© 2014 MEED Projects installed 2014 MEED Projects

Key GCC water projects under construction Project Myah Gulf Oman Desalination Company - Sohar IWP ADWEA / GDF Suez - Mirfa IWPP Umm Al Houl Power - Facility D IWPP: Water Desalination Plant ADSSC - Strategic Tunnel Enhancement Programme:Pumping Stations National Water Company - Wasea Water Project : Package 4 MEW - Doha Desalination Plant : Phase 1 (65/2014/2015) ASHGHAL - Al-Dhakhira Sewage Treatment Plant, Pumping Station & Pipelines Dubai Municipality - Jebel Ali Sewage Treatment Plant : Phase 2

Saudi Aramco-JEC :Industrial Desalination & Wastewater Project :Package 2 Barka Desalination Company - Barka IWP Maaden - Waad Al Shamal Mining City: Waste Water Treatment Plant ASHGHAL - Expansion of Doha West Sewage Treatment Works (DWSTW): Extension No.5 Qurayyat Desalination Company - Qurayyat IWP Al-Hamra Water Company - Ras Al Khaimah Desalination Plant MPW/UDC JV - Sulaibiya Wastewater Treatment Plant Expansion MEW - Al Mutlaa High Area Water Storage Tanks : Phase 2 (Tender No.85/20122013) ASHGHAL- Industrial Area Sewage Treatment Plant: Phase 2 8

Source: MEED Projects

Country Oman UAE Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Oman Saudi Arabia

Value ($m) 1,200 989 600 572 400 390 373 359

350 300 240

Qatar Oman UAE Kuwait

219 210 196 150

Kuwait Qatar

149 130 ©© 2014 MEED Projects 2016 MEED Projects

Key future GCC water projects 1/2 Project

Country

SWCC - Jubail 3 IWPP

Saudi Arabia

5,400Study

MEW - Nuwaiseeb IWPP

Kuwait

3,000Study

MEW - Al Dur 2 IWPP

Bahrain

2,000Study

MEW - Shuaiba South Power and Desalination Plant KAPP / MPW - Umm al-Hayman Wastewater Treatment Plant Expansion

Kuwait Kuwait

1,800Study Bid 1,550 Evaluation

SWCC - Rabigh 3 IWP

Saudi Arabia

1,000Design

SWCC -Ras al Khair Desalination Plant: Phase 2

Saudi Arabia

1,000Study

SWCC - Rabigh Desalination Plant: Phase 4 KAHRAMAA - Facility E IWPP

Saudi Arabia Qatar

KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 2: Water Desalination Plant Centralised Utilities Company - Duqm Power and Desalination Plant

Kuwait

1,000Study 1,000Study Bid 941 Evaluation Main 800 Contract PQ

SWCC - Al Khobar Desalination Plant :Phase 4 MPW - Upgrading the Existing & Developing North Kabd Sewage Treatment Plant

Saudi Arabia

800Study

Kuwait

700Design

SWCC - Shoaiba Desalination Plant: Phase 4

Saudi Arabia

700Study

9

Source: MEED Projects

Oman

Value ($m) Status

©© 2014 MEED Projects 2016 MEED Projects

Key future GCC water projects 2/2 Project Country Dubai Municipality - Jebel Ali Deep Tunnel Storm Water System Project: Package 2 UAE

Value ($m) Status Main Contract 700 Bid

Kahramaa - Ras Abu Fontas (RAF) A4 Desalination Plant

Qatar

600Bid Evaluation

SWCC - Jeddah Desalination Plant: Phase 4 SWCC - Rabigh Desalination Plant: Phase 2 ADWEA - Fujairah IWPP: Phase 3 NWC - Jeddah City Water Conveyance Project Empower - Jumeirah Village : District Cooling Plant (6 Nos) KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 3: Water Desalination Plant SWCC - Yanbu Desalination Plant: Phase 4

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Saudi Arabia

MEW - Doha Desalination Plant - Phase 2 Kuwait Dubai Municipality - Jebel Ali Deep Tunnel Storm Water System Project: Package 3 UAE

500Bid Evaluation 500Study 500Study 500Design 490Study 479Study 450Study Main Contract 432 PQ Main Contract 427 PQ

MOF - Addur 3 Water Plant Bahrain KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 5: Water Desalination Plant Kuwait

420Study 415Study

KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 4: Water Desalination Plant Kuwait SWCC – Jeddah Desalination Plant: Phase 5 Saudi Arabia

415Study 400Study

10 Source: MEED Projects

©© 2014 MEED Projects 2016 MEED Projects

Future projects Value of future GCC power and water projects

($m)

90,000

Almost $170bn of planned water and power projects in the pipeline

80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000

20,000 10,000 0 Bahrain 11

Source: MEED Projects

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Future projects

120,000

Value of future GCC power and water projects by type ($m)

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Desalination 12

Source: MEED Projects

Generation

Storage

Transmission

Treatment

Drivers and barriers Regional Project Marker Growth Drivers & Barriers to Growth Move to RO and solar desal to reduce energy demand

Demographic Growth Remains Strong 2

Demand still Growing

3

1

4

Positive factors Lower oil prices limit government spending

Negative factors 1

4 2

Lower subsidies has reduced demand growth

13

Efficiency drives on UFW and water reuse

3 Billing and payments still an issue and limit full privatisation

Š Š 2014 2014 MEED MEED Projects Projects

Current and future trends • While oil prices and economic growth are lower, population growth in the regions continues to increase. Thus new generation investment will still need to be required in the long run.

• However, reduced subsidies and rising tariffs along with conservation campaigns have lowered demand growth which means anticipated demand will likely to be lower than originally predicted three years ago, resulting in lower required investment

• Expect membrane technologies to be the technology of choice for new generation and treatment facilities going forward as countries focus on lower energy requirements and costs decrease • Solar and nuclear desalination will become more prevalent. KSA is already talking about 100MW nuclear reactors with desalination capacity of 40,000 cm/d for example. These will be especially important in more remote areas where transmission costs would be high • A greater strain on government budgets will ensure PPP-type procurement and development models will become the framework of choice for new projects while increasing tariffs could make full-scale privatisation more palatable • It’s not all about generation. Strategic investment in water storage reservoirs, more modern pipeline networks, and pumped storage will also see a greater focus as will a move to 14 © 2014 MEED Projects lower UFW rates and extend sewerage coverage beyond current levels

© 2013 MEED Insight © 2014 MEED Projects