The GCC Water Sector Projects Market International Water Summit 2017
17 January 2017, Abu Dhabi, IWS Presented by Ed James Director of Content & Analysis Edward.james@meed.com @EdJamesMEED © 2013 MEED Insight
All the project information in this presentation is sourced from MEED Projects MEED Projects is a Middle East, North and East Africa project tracking platform. It has two major functions; it is a business development tool to help you find new business opportunities and an analysis tool so you can assess the feasibility of potential new markets and projects. 5 key reasons to sign up for a demo: •
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Historical awards Value of GCC contract awards by country, 2008-15 ($m) 80,000
70,000
2015 total = $177bn
60,000
2008-15 total = $1.2 trillion
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Bahrain 2008 2
Source: MEED Projects
Kuwait 2009
2010
Oman 2011
Qatar 2012
2013
Saudi Arabia 2014
UAE
2015 © 2014 MEED Projects
Market Analysis by Sector Value of GCC Contracts Awarded by Sector, 2010 – 2015 ($m) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
0
2010 3
Source: MEED Projects
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 performance
Value of GCC contracts awarded 2016 ($m) 45,000
Total = $109bn
40,000
2015 total = $178bn 35,000
Only Bahrain and the UAE have performed 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Bahrain 4
Source: MEED Projects
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
2015/16 comparison Comparison of GCC awards 2015/2016 ($m) 60,000
50,000
40,000
2015 2016
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Bahrain 5
Source: MEED Projects
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
2015/16 comparison Comparison of GCC sector awards 2015/2016 ($m) 80,000
70,000 60,000
Worst year since 2005 for investment in new power and water projects
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
6
Source: MEED Projects
2015 2016
Desalination key figures Key GCC desalination sector statistics, 2015-20
Country
2015 installed 2015 peak desalination water demand capacity (MIGD) (MIGD)
Peak water demand forecast 2020 (MIGD)**
Peak water demand CAGR (20132020 - %)
Target installed desalination capacity 2020 (MIGD)
Additional desalination capacity requirement (MIGD)
UAE – Abu Dhabi
916
852
1,089
4
1,252
336
UAE –Dubai
470
337
390
4
470
-
328 (2014)
324*
548
10
636
308
Kuwait
480
460
780
10
1,000
520
Oman
146
162*
288
6
316
170
144 (2014)
163*
189
3
181
37
1,621
968 (2014)
1,591
na
2,202
581
Qatar
Bahrain Saudi Arabia**
Total 4,105 3,266 4,875 6,057 1,952 Sources: MEED Projects; Adwec; Dewa; Kahramaa; MEW; OPWP; EWA; ECRA *includes demand met from groundwater sources; **2020 demand forecast is based on MEED own forecase NOTE: actual production capacity is lower than 7 Source: FTdesign capacity. Also note that additional capacity requirement excludes new capacity to replace obsolete ©© 2014 MEED Projects installed 2014 MEED Projects
Key GCC water projects under construction Project Myah Gulf Oman Desalination Company - Sohar IWP ADWEA / GDF Suez - Mirfa IWPP Umm Al Houl Power - Facility D IWPP: Water Desalination Plant ADSSC - Strategic Tunnel Enhancement Programme:Pumping Stations National Water Company - Wasea Water Project : Package 4 MEW - Doha Desalination Plant : Phase 1 (65/2014/2015) ASHGHAL - Al-Dhakhira Sewage Treatment Plant, Pumping Station & Pipelines Dubai Municipality - Jebel Ali Sewage Treatment Plant : Phase 2
Saudi Aramco-JEC :Industrial Desalination & Wastewater Project :Package 2 Barka Desalination Company - Barka IWP Maaden - Waad Al Shamal Mining City: Waste Water Treatment Plant ASHGHAL - Expansion of Doha West Sewage Treatment Works (DWSTW): Extension No.5 Qurayyat Desalination Company - Qurayyat IWP Al-Hamra Water Company - Ras Al Khaimah Desalination Plant MPW/UDC JV - Sulaibiya Wastewater Treatment Plant Expansion MEW - Al Mutlaa High Area Water Storage Tanks : Phase 2 (Tender No.85/20122013) ASHGHAL- Industrial Area Sewage Treatment Plant: Phase 2 8
Source: MEED Projects
Country Oman UAE Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Oman Saudi Arabia
Value ($m) 1,200 989 600 572 400 390 373 359
350 300 240
Qatar Oman UAE Kuwait
219 210 196 150
Kuwait Qatar
149 130 ©© 2014 MEED Projects 2016 MEED Projects
Key future GCC water projects 1/2 Project
Country
SWCC - Jubail 3 IWPP
Saudi Arabia
5,400Study
MEW - Nuwaiseeb IWPP
Kuwait
3,000Study
MEW - Al Dur 2 IWPP
Bahrain
2,000Study
MEW - Shuaiba South Power and Desalination Plant KAPP / MPW - Umm al-Hayman Wastewater Treatment Plant Expansion
Kuwait Kuwait
1,800Study Bid 1,550 Evaluation
SWCC - Rabigh 3 IWP
Saudi Arabia
1,000Design
SWCC -Ras al Khair Desalination Plant: Phase 2
Saudi Arabia
1,000Study
SWCC - Rabigh Desalination Plant: Phase 4 KAHRAMAA - Facility E IWPP
Saudi Arabia Qatar
KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 2: Water Desalination Plant Centralised Utilities Company - Duqm Power and Desalination Plant
Kuwait
1,000Study 1,000Study Bid 941 Evaluation Main 800 Contract PQ
SWCC - Al Khobar Desalination Plant :Phase 4 MPW - Upgrading the Existing & Developing North Kabd Sewage Treatment Plant
Saudi Arabia
800Study
Kuwait
700Design
SWCC - Shoaiba Desalination Plant: Phase 4
Saudi Arabia
700Study
9
Source: MEED Projects
Oman
Value ($m) Status
©© 2014 MEED Projects 2016 MEED Projects
Key future GCC water projects 2/2 Project Country Dubai Municipality - Jebel Ali Deep Tunnel Storm Water System Project: Package 2 UAE
Value ($m) Status Main Contract 700 Bid
Kahramaa - Ras Abu Fontas (RAF) A4 Desalination Plant
Qatar
600Bid Evaluation
SWCC - Jeddah Desalination Plant: Phase 4 SWCC - Rabigh Desalination Plant: Phase 2 ADWEA - Fujairah IWPP: Phase 3 NWC - Jeddah City Water Conveyance Project Empower - Jumeirah Village : District Cooling Plant (6 Nos) KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 3: Water Desalination Plant SWCC - Yanbu Desalination Plant: Phase 4
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Saudi Arabia
MEW - Doha Desalination Plant - Phase 2 Kuwait Dubai Municipality - Jebel Ali Deep Tunnel Storm Water System Project: Package 3 UAE
500Bid Evaluation 500Study 500Study 500Design 490Study 479Study 450Study Main Contract 432 PQ Main Contract 427 PQ
MOF - Addur 3 Water Plant Bahrain KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 5: Water Desalination Plant Kuwait
420Study 415Study
KAPP - Al Zour North IWPP: Phase 4: Water Desalination Plant Kuwait SWCC – Jeddah Desalination Plant: Phase 5 Saudi Arabia
415Study 400Study
10 Source: MEED Projects
©© 2014 MEED Projects 2016 MEED Projects
Future projects Value of future GCC power and water projects
($m)
90,000
Almost $170bn of planned water and power projects in the pipeline
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
20,000 10,000 0 Bahrain 11
Source: MEED Projects
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Future projects
120,000
Value of future GCC power and water projects by type ($m)
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 Desalination 12
Source: MEED Projects
Generation
Storage
Transmission
Treatment
Drivers and barriers Regional Project Marker Growth Drivers & Barriers to Growth Move to RO and solar desal to reduce energy demand
Demographic Growth Remains Strong 2
Demand still Growing
3
1
4
Positive factors Lower oil prices limit government spending
Negative factors 1
4 2
Lower subsidies has reduced demand growth
13
Efficiency drives on UFW and water reuse
3 Billing and payments still an issue and limit full privatisation
Š Š 2014 2014 MEED MEED Projects Projects
Current and future trends • While oil prices and economic growth are lower, population growth in the regions continues to increase. Thus new generation investment will still need to be required in the long run. • However, reduced subsidies and rising tariffs along with conservation campaigns have lowered demand growth which means anticipated demand will likely to be lower than originally predicted three years ago, resulting in lower required investment
• Expect membrane technologies to be the technology of choice for new generation and treatment facilities going forward as countries focus on lower energy requirements and costs decrease • Solar and nuclear desalination will become more prevalent. KSA is already talking about 100MW nuclear reactors with desalination capacity of 40,000 cm/d for example. These will be especially important in more remote areas where transmission costs would be high • A greater strain on government budgets will ensure PPP-type procurement and development models will become the framework of choice for new projects while increasing tariffs could make full-scale privatisation more palatable • It’s not all about generation. Strategic investment in water storage reservoirs, more modern pipeline networks, and pumped storage will also see a greater focus as will a move to 14 © 2014 MEED Projects lower UFW rates and extend sewerage coverage beyond current levels
© 2013 MEED Insight © 2014 MEED Projects