Poyrybatterystorage jan2017 v300 brendan cronin

ENERGY STORAGE: THE GAME CHANGER FOR RENEWABLES ?

World Future Energy Summit, Abu Dhabi 18 January 2017

BATTERY STORAGE HAS MULTIPLE DIFFERENT USES … … this makes discussing battery storage complex !

Ancillary services

Energy

‘Behind the meter’

· Spinning reserve (‘frequency control’) · Standing reserve · Voltage control · Black start · Reduce peak / off-peak cost differences · Provide ramping capability · Provide firm capacity · Defer or avoid network upgrades · Off-grid power supply · Back-up power supply · Reduce or avoid network charges · Reduce connection capacity required COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY

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INITIALLY PV WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MEETING PEAK DEMAND … … but as more capacity is added it will not displace the need for ‘firm’ capacity

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14 Peak demand

Hour of peak demand

• GCC

Hour of sunset 12 10

15

8 6

10 The 80 days of highest demand all had a peak during daylight

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5 2 0

0 0

50

100

150

200

Day of year COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY

250

300

Daily peak demand (GW)

Hour of peak demand / sunset

20

summer has a daytime peak driven

by AC load

• GCC winter has an evening peak driven by lighting

350 Data from Abu Dhabi

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TRANSFORMING PV IN TO A ‘BASELOAD GENERATOR’ IS EXPENSIVE Even at optimistic costs this could add > $40/MWh to the PV LCOE in the GCC

Solar output

Battery output

Battery charge

•

assumed storage EPC cost of $200/kWh

4.0 Indicative only

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00

Output / Charge level (MWh)

5.0

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FLATTENING THE PV PROFILE FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF HOURS IS CHEAPER The cost of storage sufficient to flatten the PV profile for the 10 highest demand hours would be $20/MWh to the PV LCOE in the GCC Solar output

Battery output

Battery charge

•

assumed storage EPC cost of $200/kWh

4.0 Indicative only

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00

Output / Charge level (MWh)

5.0

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THERE ARE FOUR WAYS TO ADD FLEXIBILITY TO A POWER SYSTEM These options have different characteristics and need to be evaluated alongside each other

· Interconnection (GCCIA and Emirates National Grid)

· Flexible thermal generation (gas turbines, steam turbines)

· Demand-side participation (smart metering, industrial load response)

· Storage (batteries, pumped storage)

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THESE COMPLEXITIES MEAN THAT A SYSTEM DISPATCH MODEL IS AN ESSENTIAL TOOL This allows the least cost storage solution to be identified and compared to alternatives Basics of BID3

Inputs and outputs of BID3 •

minimises the system cost in a year subject to constraints

•

It models all 8760 hours of the year and accounts for varying renewables, demand-side management, hydro and storage

•

It has the following key plant dynamics • • • • •

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Start-up, Part-loading (no-load), Minimum Stable Generation Minimum off times, minimum on time Start-up cost and variable maintenance costs dependent on start temperature Ramping Reserve and response

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THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS TO DISCUSS

· What are the best uses of storage in the region ?

– provision of spinning reserve and off-grid applications are strong cases – peak / off-peak demand management will benefit from higher renewable penetration

· When should we add capacity and in what volumes ?

– wait for learning from elsewhere and further cost falls ?

– wait for higher renewable penetration ?

– Or gain a first mover advantage ?

· How should projects be structured?

– – – –

Merchant (not possible … planning decisions still remain with off-taker) IPP where more risk and project optimisation is managed by private sector ?

EPC where utilities retain more control and can change its use over time ? ‘behind-the-meter’ on industrial and commercial sites to avoid (unsubsidised) tariffs ?

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brendan.cronin@poyry.com

Consulting. Engineering. Projects. Operations. www.poyry.com