ENERGY STORAGE: THE GAME CHANGER FOR RENEWABLES ? World Future Energy Summit, Abu Dhabi 18 January 2017
BATTERY STORAGE HAS MULTIPLE DIFFERENT USES … … this makes discussing battery storage complex !
Ancillary services
Energy
‘Behind the meter’
· Spinning reserve (‘frequency control’) · Standing reserve · Voltage control · Black start · Reduce peak / off-peak cost differences · Provide ramping capability · Provide firm capacity · Defer or avoid network upgrades · Off-grid power supply · Back-up power supply · Reduce or avoid network charges · Reduce connection capacity required COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
2
INITIALLY PV WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MEETING PEAK DEMAND … … but as more capacity is added it will not displace the need for ‘firm’ capacity
25
14 Peak demand
Hour of peak demand
• GCC
Hour of sunset 12 10
15
8 6
10 The 80 days of highest demand all had a peak during daylight
4
5 2 0
0 0
50
100
150
200
Day of year COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
250
300
Daily peak demand (GW)
Hour of peak demand / sunset
20
summer has a daytime peak driven by AC load
• GCC winter has an evening peak driven by lighting
350 Data from Abu Dhabi
3
TRANSFORMING PV IN TO A ‘BASELOAD GENERATOR’ IS EXPENSIVE Even at optimistic costs this could add > $40/MWh to the PV LCOE in the GCC
Solar output
Battery output
Battery charge
•
assumed storage EPC cost of $200/kWh
4.0 Indicative only
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
Output / Charge level (MWh)
5.0
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
4
FLATTENING THE PV PROFILE FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF HOURS IS CHEAPER The cost of storage sufficient to flatten the PV profile for the 10 highest demand hours would be $20/MWh to the PV LCOE in the GCC Solar output
Battery output
Battery charge
•
assumed storage EPC cost of $200/kWh
4.0 Indicative only
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
Output / Charge level (MWh)
5.0
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
5
THERE ARE FOUR WAYS TO ADD FLEXIBILITY TO A POWER SYSTEM These options have different characteristics and need to be evaluated alongside each other
· Interconnection (GCCIA and Emirates National Grid)
· Flexible thermal generation (gas turbines, steam turbines)
· Demand-side participation (smart metering, industrial load response)
· Storage (batteries, pumped storage)
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
6
THESE COMPLEXITIES MEAN THAT A SYSTEM DISPATCH MODEL IS AN ESSENTIAL TOOL This allows the least cost storage solution to be identified and compared to alternatives Basics of BID3
Inputs and outputs of BID3 •
minimises the system cost in a year subject to constraints
•
It models all 8760 hours of the year and accounts for varying renewables, demand-side management, hydro and storage
•
It has the following key plant dynamics • • • • •
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
Start-up, Part-loading (no-load), Minimum Stable Generation Minimum off times, minimum on time Start-up cost and variable maintenance costs dependent on start temperature Ramping Reserve and response
7
THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS TO DISCUSS
· What are the best uses of storage in the region ? – provision of spinning reserve and off-grid applications are strong cases – peak / off-peak demand management will benefit from higher renewable penetration
· When should we add capacity and in what volumes ? – wait for learning from elsewhere and further cost falls ? – wait for higher renewable penetration ? – Or gain a first mover advantage ?
· How should projects be structured? – – – –
Merchant (not possible … planning decisions still remain with off-taker) IPP where more risk and project optimisation is managed by private sector ? EPC where utilities retain more control and can change its use over time ? ‘behind-the-meter’ on industrial and commercial sites to avoid (unsubsidised) tariffs ?
COPYRIGHT©PÖYRY
8
brendan.cronin@poyry.com
Consulting. Engineering. Projects. Operations. www.poyry.com