India’s Renewable Energy Ambition Paolo Frankl Head, Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
Country Focus on India, WFES - Abu Dhabi, 18 January 2017 © OECD/IEA 2016
Annual wind and solar capacity additions conducive to targets The Government of India targets 160 GW of cumulative wind and solar by 2022 20000 18000 16000 14000
Cumulative additions
12000 Rooftop Grounded
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
Source: Central Electricity Authority, Draft National Electricity Plan, December 2016
Renewable electricity targets for 2022 are ambitious, esp. with respect to solar PV deployment Š OECD/IEA 2016
Auctions proved effective in reducing generation costs Weighted average PPA bid prices in solar PV auctions, state and JNNSM*, 2010-2016
USD/kWh
0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 500 MW
0.1 0.05 0 07/2010 Rajasthan Telangana Punjab JNNSM I
11/2011 Mahrashtra Madhya Pradesh Karnatka Reference
Karnatka Punjab Andhra Pradesh
03/2013 Telangana Karnatka Rajasthan
Rajasthan Telangana Tamil Nadu
08/2014 Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh
12/2015 Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Karnatka
Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh JNNSM II
*Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
Competition and long-term contracts key to reduce prices Š OECD/IEA 2016
USD/MWh (nominal)
Comparing auctions across countries 140
Recent announced long-term contract prices for new renewable power to be commissioned over 2016-2019
Jordan
India
India
120
Germany
South Africa
100
Uruguay
80
Chile
France Jordan
Brazil
Germany US
South Africa
UAE
60
India
Peru
Mexico
Denmark
40 UAE 20
Chile
0 2013
2014
2015
2016
Solar PV
Prices differences strongly dependent on resource availability and cost of financing
Š OECD/IEA 2016
India’s electricity mix shift towards renewables
Installed power capacities in 2014 and 2040 in the New Policies Scenario
In the New Policy Scenario, by 2040 non-hydro renewables account for 1/3 of capacities (43% including hydropower) Š OECD/IEA 2016
India’s renewable energy targets are in line with ambitious climate targets India cumulative renewable capacity in 2016; 2022 targets; and WEO 2016 scenarios
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Wind
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
GW WEO 2016 450 in 2030
WEO 2016 NPS in 2030
2022 targets
2016
Financial health of utilities, better state-level implementation of RPOs, faster grid infrastructure expansion and reduced land acquisition barriers remain challenges Š OECD/IEA 2016
D olla rs pe r MW h (2 0 1 5 )
Relying only on wholesale markets may not suffice to drive investment
Utility-scale solar PV in INDIA 120
Competitive in NPS
X
X
80
40
0 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Utility-scale PV seems competitive in India and various other countries but in climate-friendly scenarios lower fossil fuel prices make competitiveness elusive Š OECD/IEA 2016
Integrating large shares of VRE requires system transformation Policy and market framework Flexible resources
Level of VRE penetration
System-friendly VRE deployment
planning planning & & investments investments
Distributed resources integration 24 /7
System services Generation time profile
Grids
Generation
Storage
Demand shaping
Technology mix Location
System and market operation
Integrated planning
Actions targeting VRE
Actions targeting overall system Š OECD/IEA 2016 - 8
Drivers & Challenges Drivers
Challenges
Excellent renewable resource availability
Accelerated implementation of federal targets at state level
Growing power demand and electrification needs
Improved financial health of state utilities
Robust and supportive policy environment with ambitious targets
Faster grid infrastructure expansion
Auction schemes with long-term PPAs
Land acquisition for some renewable projects
Š OECD/IEA 2016