Wfes stream b 1630 1730 01 juho lipponen

Carbon capture and storage

– a critical part of the future energy mix SESSION MODERATOR: Juho Lipponen, IEA

AGENDA: 4:30 Opening & welcome 4:35

20 years of CCS: accelerating future deployment Juho Lipponen, Head of Carbon Capture and Storage unit, IEA

4:50 Global status of CCS John Scowcroft, Head of EMEA, Global CCS Institute

5:05 The Al Reyadah CCS project Arafat Al Yafei, CEO, Al Reyadah company

5:20 Questions from the floor 5:30 End of session

© OECD/IEA 2016

20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage

Accelerating Future Deployment  

World Future Energy Summit Abu Dhabi, 18 January 2017

Juho Lipponen Head of Carbon Capture and Storage unit, IEA 



© OECD/IEA 2016

20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA analysis highlights progress – and stresses the need for… more progress.

Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS

http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/

3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace © OECD/IEA 2016

CCS has come a long way  

16 large-scale projects operating New projects advancing 

5 more projects in construction, due to commence in next 18 months



Portfolio is becoming more diverse, including coal-fired power generation, oil sand upgrading and steel manufacture Size of dedicated storage is also growing, reaching 3 MtCO 2 pa (Gorgon)





Technology is now proven in many applications; widespread deployment can deliver further cost reductions

Scotford Upgrader (Source: Shell)

Al Reyadah (Source: The National)

Parish –Petra Nova (Source: NRG)

4

Gorgon (Source: Chevron) © OECD/IEA 2016

Fluctuating policy support has led to a “start-stop cycle”

Source: IEA (2016), 20 years of CCS: Accelerating Future Deployment.

Adapted from SBC Energy Institute (2016), Low Carbon Energy Technologies Fact Book Update: Carbon Capture and Storage at a Crossroads. © OECD/IEA 2016

Key lessons from past 20 years 1. Significant progress despite limited support 2. Long-term commitment and stability in policy frameworks is critical 3. Early opportunities for CCS deployment exist, but must be cultivated 4. No CCS without the “S”: CO2 storage must come first 5. The role of CCS goes well beyond a “clean coal technology” 6. Many more projects are needed 7. Community engagement is essential

© OECD/IEA 2016

20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November.

Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ © OECD/IEA 2016

CCS plays a key role in the shift from 4°C to 2°C… Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO 2 reductions 45

4DS

GtCO2

40

Renewables 32% Energy efficiency 32%

35

Fuel switching 10%

30

Nuclear 11%

25

CCS 15%

20

2DS

15 10

4DS 2DS

2DS

5 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

© OECD/IEA 2016

94Gt CO2 captured and stored in 2DS CCS deployment by sector in the 2DS 7 000

Other

MtCO2

6 000

Gas processing

5 000

Biofuels

4 000

Chemicals Cement

3 000

Iron and steel 2 000

Biomass power 1 000

Gas-fired power

0

2010

 

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Coal-fired power

From 50Mt/y in 2020 to 6Gt/y in 2050 A total of 94Gt captured and stored through 2050 52Gt  55% power  29Gt  31% process industries  13Gt  14% gas processing and biofuel production 

© OECD/IEA 2016

What if?... No CCS in power No CCS in power (NCCS) and 2DS 100%

Axis Title

Others 80%

Nuclear Renewables

60%

Gas with CCS 40%

Gas Coal with CCS

20%

Coal 0%

  

2DS

NCCS

850 GW of fossil-CCS capacity replaced by 1 900 GW of renewable capacity At least an additional USD 3.5 trillion in generation capacity investment will be required; but even greater challenges result.

Coal-fired power eliminated by 2050 © OECD/IEA 2016

What if?... No CCS in industry 3 000

Other 2 500

Gas processing

MtCO2

2 000

Biofuels

1 500

Chemicals

1 000

Cement 500

Iron and steel

0

2010



2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Limited alternatives to 29 Gt of emissions captured from industry in the period to 2050:   



2015

CCS abatement: Cement 8 Gt; steel 10 Gt; chemicals 11 Gt. Technology alternatives to CCS are less developed Hence unlikely that such reductions could be made within these sectors with other technologies

Burden may shift to other sectors © OECD/IEA 2016

Towards well below 2 degrees: targeting remaining emissions Remaining CO2 emissions in the 2DS in 2050 40 000

GtCO2

30 000

Other transformation Agriculture

20 000

Power Buildings

10 000

Transport Industry

0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

 

Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%) Industry accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050 © OECD/IEA 2016

20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November.

Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ © OECD/IEA 2016

A critical role for policy 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES  CCS does not advance without targeted support  Capital and operational incentives  Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO2 purchase contracts etc. etc.

© OECD/IEA 2016

A critical role for policy 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES 2. INFRASTRUCTURE APPROACH  CCS does not without targeted of support  advance Prioritised development prospective storage  Capital and operational areas andincentives sites  Publicly-led  Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO2 business model storage-driven  Decoupling purchase contracts etc. etc.of CCS chain through hubs

© OECD/IEA 2016

3. A critical role for policy 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES 3. SUPPORT INNOVATION CHAIN  CCS does not advance  Moving withoutbeyond targeted support first generation  Capital and operational  Co-ordinated incentives Technology RD&D Mission Innovation,  Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO2 TCPs, PPPs purchase contracts etc. etc.

2. INFRASTRUCTURE APPROACH  Prioritised development of prospective storage areas and sites  Publicly-led storage-driven business model  Decoupling of CCS chain through hubs

© OECD/IEA 2016

Thank you for your attention!

http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ juho.lipponen@iea.org © OECD/IEA 2016