Carbon capture and storage
– a critical part of the future energy mix SESSION MODERATOR: Juho Lipponen, IEA
AGENDA: 4:30 Opening & welcome 4:35
20 years of CCS: accelerating future deployment Juho Lipponen, Head of Carbon Capture and Storage unit, IEA
4:50 Global status of CCS John Scowcroft, Head of EMEA, Global CCS Institute
5:05 The Al Reyadah CCS project Arafat Al Yafei, CEO, Al Reyadah company
5:20 Questions from the floor 5:30 End of session
© OECD/IEA 2016
20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage
Accelerating Future Deployment
World Future Energy Summit Abu Dhabi, 18 January 2017
Juho Lipponen Head of Carbon Capture and Storage unit, IEA
© OECD/IEA 2016
20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA analysis highlights progress – and stresses the need for… more progress. Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS
http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/
3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace © OECD/IEA 2016
CCS has come a long way
16 large-scale projects operating New projects advancing
5 more projects in construction, due to commence in next 18 months
Portfolio is becoming more diverse, including coal-fired power generation, oil sand upgrading and steel manufacture Size of dedicated storage is also growing, reaching 3 MtCO 2 pa (Gorgon)
Technology is now proven in many applications; widespread deployment can deliver further cost reductions
Scotford Upgrader (Source: Shell)
Al Reyadah (Source: The National)
Parish –Petra Nova (Source: NRG)
4
Gorgon (Source: Chevron) © OECD/IEA 2016
Fluctuating policy support has led to a “start-stop cycle”
Source: IEA (2016), 20 years of CCS: Accelerating Future Deployment. Adapted from SBC Energy Institute (2016), Low Carbon Energy Technologies Fact Book Update: Carbon Capture and Storage at a Crossroads. © OECD/IEA 2016
Key lessons from past 20 years 1. Significant progress despite limited support 2. Long-term commitment and stability in policy frameworks is critical 3. Early opportunities for CCS deployment exist, but must be cultivated 4. No CCS without the “S”: CO2 storage must come first 5. The role of CCS goes well beyond a “clean coal technology” 6. Many more projects are needed 7. Community engagement is essential
© OECD/IEA 2016
20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November. Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ © OECD/IEA 2016
CCS plays a key role in the shift from 4°C to 2°C… Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO 2 reductions 45
4DS
GtCO2
40
Renewables 32% Energy efficiency 32%
35
Fuel switching 10%
30
Nuclear 11%
25
CCS 15%
20
2DS
15 10
4DS 2DS
2DS
5 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
© OECD/IEA 2016
94Gt CO2 captured and stored in 2DS CCS deployment by sector in the 2DS 7 000
Other
MtCO2
6 000
Gas processing
5 000
Biofuels
4 000
Chemicals Cement
3 000
Iron and steel 2 000
Biomass power 1 000
Gas-fired power
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Coal-fired power
From 50Mt/y in 2020 to 6Gt/y in 2050 A total of 94Gt captured and stored through 2050 52Gt 55% power 29Gt 31% process industries 13Gt 14% gas processing and biofuel production
© OECD/IEA 2016
What if?... No CCS in power No CCS in power (NCCS) and 2DS 100%
Axis Title
Others 80%
Nuclear Renewables
60%
Gas with CCS 40%
Gas Coal with CCS
20%
Coal 0%
2DS
NCCS
850 GW of fossil-CCS capacity replaced by 1 900 GW of renewable capacity At least an additional USD 3.5 trillion in generation capacity investment will be required; but even greater challenges result. Coal-fired power eliminated by 2050 © OECD/IEA 2016
What if?... No CCS in industry 3 000
Other 2 500
Gas processing
MtCO2
2 000
Biofuels
1 500
Chemicals
1 000
Cement 500
Iron and steel
0
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Limited alternatives to 29 Gt of emissions captured from industry in the period to 2050:
2015
CCS abatement: Cement 8 Gt; steel 10 Gt; chemicals 11 Gt. Technology alternatives to CCS are less developed Hence unlikely that such reductions could be made within these sectors with other technologies
Burden may shift to other sectors © OECD/IEA 2016
Towards well below 2 degrees: targeting remaining emissions Remaining CO2 emissions in the 2DS in 2050 40 000
GtCO2
30 000
Other transformation Agriculture
20 000
Power Buildings
10 000
Transport Industry
0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%) Industry accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050 © OECD/IEA 2016
20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November. Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ © OECD/IEA 2016
A critical role for policy 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES CCS does not advance without targeted support Capital and operational incentives Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO2 purchase contracts etc. etc.
© OECD/IEA 2016
A critical role for policy 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES 2. INFRASTRUCTURE APPROACH CCS does not without targeted of support advance Prioritised development prospective storage Capital and operational areas andincentives sites Publicly-led Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO2 business model storage-driven Decoupling purchase contracts etc. etc.of CCS chain through hubs
© OECD/IEA 2016
3. A critical role for policy 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES 3. SUPPORT INNOVATION CHAIN CCS does not advance Moving withoutbeyond targeted support first generation Capital and operational Co-ordinated incentives Technology RD&D Mission Innovation, Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO2 TCPs, PPPs purchase contracts etc. etc. 2. INFRASTRUCTURE APPROACH Prioritised development of prospective storage areas and sites Publicly-led storage-driven business model Decoupling of CCS chain through hubs
© OECD/IEA 2016
Thank you for your attention!
http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ juho.lipponen@iea.org © OECD/IEA 2016