Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

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Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011

Report Summary The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.58% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 2,269bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.47%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.67%. Oil demand is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 109,000b/d by 2015. Imports can be expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.4bcm by 2015, demand is heading for 5.0bcm, requiring imports of 3.6bcm. The presence of significant shale gas volumes could alter radically the long-term gas outlook. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 21.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 96,000b/d in 2010 to 121,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 0.2bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014, before slipping to 1.0bcm by 2020. Given forecast demand growth of 111%, import dependency increases from the estimated 2010 level of 2.8bcm to 5.3bcm at the end of the period. Bulgaria shares eighth place with Czech Republic and Hungary in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds sixth place, above Romania, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, limited production potential and constrained competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset by reasonable country risk factors. There is little scope for further progress up the league table during the next few quarters. Bulgaria now shares 12th place with Uzbekistan in BMI's downstream Business Environment Ratings, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect much near-term progress further up the ratings. Refining capacity is among the region's lowest, and gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.

Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis

... 7 .... 9

Bulgaria Political SWOT Bulgaria Economic SWOT

9 ..... 9

Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT Bulgarian Energy Market Overview

Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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>> Get this Report Now by email! Regional Energy Market Overview

...... 13

Oil Supply And Demand

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Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream

.. 14 ...... 15

. 16

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand

... 17

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) Business Environment Ratings

..... 17 .. 18

Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

..... 19

.... 20

Central/Eastern Europe Region

.. 20

Composite Scores

. 21

Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating Upstream Scores

... 21

.. 22

Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating Bulgaria Upstream Rating ' Overview

..... 22

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Bulgaria Upstream Rating ' Rewards

...... 23

Bulgaria Upstream Rating ' Risks

..... 23

Downstream Scores

.... 24

Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating Bulgaria Downstream Rating ' Overview

25

Bulgaria Downstream Rating ' Rewards

.. 25

Bulgaria Downstream Rating ' Risks Business Environment

. 24

25

... 26

Legal Framework

. 26

Property Rights

.... 26

Intellectual Property Rights Corruption

...... 26 .... 27

Physical Infrastructure

...... 27

Labour Force

28

Foreign Investment Policy

. 29

Foreign Trade Regime

30

Tax Regime

... 31

Security Risk

. 31

Industry Forecast Scenario

.... 33

Oil And Gas Reserves

. 33

Oil Supply And Demand

..... 34

Gas Supply And Demand LNG

... 16

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35

Refining And Oil Products Trade

..... 35

Revenues/Import Costs

36

Table: Bulgaria Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy

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38

Table: Bulgaria Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook Oil And Gas Infrastructure

Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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40

Service Stations

.... 40

Oil Storage Facilities

.. 41

Oil Terminals/Ports

.... 41

Oil Pipelines

. 41

LNG Terminals

.... 42

Gas Storage Facilities

. 42

Gas Pipelines

43

Macroeconomic Outlook

. 47

Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity

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Competitive Landscape

.. 49

Executive Summary

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Table: Key Players Bulgarian Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role

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Licensing And Regulation

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Government Policy

51

Licensing Rounds

... 51

International Energy Relations

... 52

Table: Key Upstream Players

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Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor

53

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Lukoil Neftekhim

.. 54

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Petrol

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OMV Bulgaria

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Shell Bulgaria

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Eko-Elda Bulgaria

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Melrose Resources

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Melrose Resources

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Bulgargaz ' Summary

... 73

Direct Petroleum Exploration ' Summary

73

JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas ' Summary Prista Oil ' Summary

... 74

Gazprom ' Summary

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Others ' Summary

..... 73

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Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand

.... 75

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Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply

..... 75

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Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)

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Regional Refining Capacity

...... 77

Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand

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78

Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) Bulgaria Country Overview Methodology And Risks To Forecasts

Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)

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Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology Introduction

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Ratings Overview

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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators

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Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology

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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry

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Cross checks Sources

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