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Croatia Telecommunications Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI's Q4 2011 report on Croatia's Telecommunications market analyses the state of, and trends in, the country's communications markets. The report covers the mobile, fixed-line telephony and internet/broadband markets. It contains data analysis of the most recent results from telecoms operators, as well as five-year forecasts covering subscriber figures in the mobile, fixed telephony and broadband markets. Furthermore, it includes ARPU forecasts for the mobile communications segment. Our five-year forecasts are based on the most recent available figures to be published by Croatia's telecoms regulator, the Croatian Post and Electronic Communications Agency (HAKOM) and by the country's leading network operators. In addition to forecasts and the latest data analysis, it examines the latest data, trends and developments. Data from Deutsche Telekom-backed T-Mobile, Telekom Austria's Croatian mobile unit VIPnet and Sweden's Tele2 suggest Croatia's mobile subscriber market increased by 105,000 customers in the three months to March 31 2011, which indicates a declining rate of growth. However, it should be noted that we have estimated Telekom Austria subscriber numbers based on the performance of the other two operators, so they may be subject to change. What is certainly true is the market has returned to its growth plateau following very sharp uptick in growth in H210. The six months to December 31 2010 saw net additions of 300,000, taking mobile market penetration rate to more than 144%. The improved performance of the mobile market in H210 was a return to growth following the difficult macroeconomic conditions throughout 2009 and H110. Over the next five years, BMI forecasts the rate of mobile subscriber growth to slow incrementally to below 1% by the end of the forecast period. Growth will be slower as operators find it increasingly difficult to grow organically due to market saturation. Our new forecast envisages growth of 1.8% in 2011, with subsequent years seeing diminishing rates of growth. One caveat to this forecast is the potential for a restatement of subscriber figures based on new HAKOM standards (see mobile data analysis section for further detail). If this restatement came to pass, we would expect a sharp dip, followed by higher growth rates. Meanwhile, we estimate the number of mobile subscribers with 3G handsets increased by 65% in 2010 to reach 416,000. This is equivalent to over 6.5% of the total mobile customer base. We maintain our view that 3G customer growth could have been higher had it not been for Croatia's economic recession and its lingering after-effects, including a tendency for subscribers cut down on high-end services. Over the long-term, we expect a steady increase in 3G customer numbers. Based on the latest figures from the regulator, BMI estimates Croatia had 1.864mn fixed lines in service at the end of 2010, equivalent to 42.1% penetration and up by 0.1% from the start of the year. In the 12 months to December 2010, fixed-line incumbent operator T-Hrvatski Telekom (T-HT) reported a 3.6% fall in fixed-line connections. These apparently contradictory trends suggest alternative operators such as Optima Telekom and H1 experienced strong growth in 2010, most likely after aggressive price-based promotions. BMI expects the internet sector to remain one of the main growth areas in Croatia's telecoms market over the next five years, with particularly rapid development expected to continue in IPTV and mobile broadband. With an internet user base which is already high, we expect only single digit growth annually, for the duration of our forecast. By the end of 2015, we believe the internet user base will have risen to 3.246mn, equivalent to a penetration rate of more than 74%. Meanwhile, broadband subscriber growth is expected to remain robust for each of our five forecast years. By the end of 2015, we envisage a market of about 1.987mn broadband subscribers, equivalent to a penetration rate of more than 45%. Although mobile broadband services are expected to grow at a faster pace than fixed broadband alternatives, the fixed broadband segment should also benefit from operator investments. This quarter sees Croatia rise from 14th to 12th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Rankings for Central and Eastern Europe. The country receives an improved overall ranking as a result of a higher score in the Country Risks category. Although they are unchanged this quarter, Croatia scores below average in the Industry Rewards category and just below average in the Industry Risks category.
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Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Croatia's Mobile Industry SWOT . 7 Croatia's Fixed-Line/Internet Industry SWOT ...... 8 Croatia Political SWOT 9 Croatia Economic SWOT .... 10 Croatia Business Environment SWOT 11 Business Environment . 12 Central And Eastern Europe .... 12 Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411 .... 16 Croatia ..... 16 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 19 Mobile ...... 19 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Mobile ' Historical Data & Forecasts 19 ARPU ....... 21 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Mobile ARPU ' Historical Data & Forecasts (HRK) . 21 Fixed Line 23 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Fixed Line ' Historical Data & Forecasts .. 23 Internet .... 25 Table: Telecoms Sector ' Internet ' Historical Data & Forecasts ...... 25 Market Data Analysis .... 27 Mobile ...... 27 Table: Croatian Mobile Market, Q211 ....... 30 Table: Croatia Mobile Market Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers, Q109-Q410 . 32 ARPU ....... 33 3G ....... 35 4G ....... 36 Mobile Contract Wins . 37 Table: Mobile Contract Wins ...... 37 Mobile Operator Data ..... 38 Table: Mobile Operator Data For Croatia . 38 Table: T-Mobile .. 38 Table: VIPnet ...... 39 Table: Tele2 40 Mobile Content 41 Regional Outlook 41 Country Outlook . 46 Table: Growth Of Annual SMS & MMS Traffic, 2004-2010 ....... 49 SMS & MMS Traffic ... 49 Value-Added Services Timeline... 50 Table: Selected VAS Services ...... 50 Fixed Line 51 Internet .... 56 Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments .... 64
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Wireline Developments (2008-11) ... 64 Regulatory Environment....... 65 Table: Croatia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ... 65 Industry Developments ....... 68 Competitive Landscape 69 Table: Key Players: Croatia Telecoms Sector .... 69 Table: Selected Telecoms Operators ' Financial Indicators, 2006-2010 .... 69 Company Monitor .. 70 Alcatel-Lucent CEE-ks Growth In The East 70 Operator Profiles ... 74 T-Hrvatski Telekom..... 74 Tele2 Croatia ...... 80 Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ....... 84 Fixed Line 84 Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ..... 85 Broadband ....... 86 Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .... 86 Mobile ...... 87 Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ... 88 Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data .. 89 Section 1: Population ....... 89 Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 89 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 90 Section 2: Education And Healthcare ...... 90 Table: Education, 2000-2003 ..... 90 Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ....... 90 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ...... 91 Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 . 91 Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) ....... 91 Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010 . 92 Glossary Of Terms 93 Table: Glossary Of Terms ... 93 BMI Methodology .. 94 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ...... 94 Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts.... 94 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings . 96 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 96 Table: Ratings Indicators ... 97 Weighting .... 98 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 98 Sources ....... 98
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