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Czech Republic Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The performance of the Czech petrochemicals industry has been solid since 2010, but will face headwinds in the short term as domestic and external conditions moderate, according to BMI's latest Czech Republic Petrochemicals Report. By May, y-o-y growth in chemicals output was 3.6% and growth in plastics and rubber output was 16.1%, having undergone a recovery in 2010. Meanwhile, chemicals sales were up 11.7% y-o-y and rubber and plastic sales were up 18.2% y-o-y. The domestic chemicals and plastics industries have failed to take full advantage of the recovery in the Czech market for a number of reasons. The most notable problems are the strength of the Czech koruna against the euro and the sluggish performance in certain sectors such as PVC, which is reliant on the construction industry and represents 14% of the country's total polyolefins capacity. The export-oriented Czech petrochemicals industry is likely to endure negligible growth in H211 due to falling competitiveness, moderation in external demand and an influx of imports that will help satisfy domestic demand. The competitiveness of the Czech petrochemicals industry will depend on exchange rate differentials. BMI expects 3.9% appreciation of the koruna against the euro over H211, which will undermine Czech exports. In turn, exports will also suffer from a moderation in external demand due to the tightening of eurozone monetary policy and austerity measures. Our expectation that consumer spending will stage a recovery this year will buoy import demand and diminish the contribution of the domestic market to growth in petrochemicals. At the same time, hopes that the Czech Republic's construction industry ' the chief market for PVC ' would be a regional outperformer, following growth of 3.2% in 2009, were dashed following a 7.1% contraction in 2010. We forecast construction industry value growth of 2.2-4.3% between 2011 and 2015. Going forward, BMI believes that export weakness, both for petrochemical products and key petrochemicals-using industries, such as the automotive sector, remain a major risk for the Czech petrochemicals industry. Industry growth will be heavily linked to eurozone demand (particularly that from Germany), given that exports make up are 72% of GDP overall, with almost one third sent to Germany, and 57% going to the eurozone as a whole. As a highly trade-integrated economy, the Czech Republic is heavily exposed to fluctuations in final demand, with Germany's deep recession and concomitant collapse in industrial orders having a substantial impact on the Czech petrochemicals industry. The Litvinov cracker, which has capacity to produce 525,000tpa of ethylene, was scheduled to be expanded to 545,000tpa by the end of 2009 with a further expansion to 595,000tpa planned during a turnaround in 2011. A rise of 70,000tpa of ethylene capacity will provide additional feedstock for any potential downstream development. However, the recovery will be a drawn out process, with dampened demand in the eurozone set to ensure no speedy pick up in output growth rates until 2012, when we believe the industry will be operating at full capacity. Growth after then will be limited owing to capacity constraints. In BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe, the Czech Republic scores 56.1 points out of a maximum of 100, up 0.1 point since the previous quarter due to an improvement in the country's long-term external factors rating. It is in third place, 2.3 points behind Poland and 0.4 points ahead of Hungary. The Czech Republic's score is unlikely to improve significantly over the next five years, with other countries in the region set to raise petrochemicals capacity at a higher rate.
Table of Content Executive Summary ... 5 SWOT Analysis ... 7 Czech Republic Petrochemicals Industry SWOT ... 7
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Czech Republic Political SWOT.... 7 Czech Republic Economic SWOT . 8 Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT ...... 8 Global Petrochemicals Overview ...... 9 Financial Results 14 Global Oil Products Price Outlook ..... 15 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/BBL) ... 16 Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/BBL) ....... 18 European Petrochemicals Overview ....... 19 Czech Republic Market Overview .... 24 Market Structure . 25 Table: Czech Republic's Petrochemical Sector Cracker Capacity, 2010-2015 ('000tpa) .... 25 Business Environment . 26 Industry Trends and Developments 27 Feedstock Issues . 28 Regulation... 28 Industry Restructuring 29 Financial Results 30 Petrochemicals Business Environment . 31 Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings .. 31 Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 33 Table: Unipetrol EBIT Segment Breakdown Q111 (CZKmn) ...... 33 Table: The Czech Republic's Petrochemicals Industry, 2007-2015 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated) ....... 37 Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 38 Czech Republic ' Economic Activity ... 39 Company Profiles ..... 40 Agrofert Holding . 40 BorsodChem MCHZ ... 42 Chemoprojekt...... 43 Spolchemie .. 44 Unipetrol..... 45 Glossary Of Terms ... 48 Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . 48 BMI Methodology ..... 49 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 49 Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry .... 49 Cross Checks ...... 50 Business Environment Ratings .... 51 Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..... 51 Weighting .... 52 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 52
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