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Poland Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The Polish petrochemicals industry is set for sustained growth in output and investment in capacity, supported by a strong domestic market coupled with an attractive investment environment, according to BMI's latest Poland Petrochemicals Report. Poland's largest petrochemicals producer PKN Orlen is boosting operational efficiency, with projects including the construction of a 600,000tpa purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plant, fed by a 400,000tpa PX facility at the site. The plant began commercial operations in June 2011, taking advantage of a market that tightened considerably in the past few months and prices at high levels. The development of PTA production is likely to prompt further investment in downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET) units. Downstream PET producers increased the demand on PTA producers as the weakness of the euro against the US dollar made imported feedstock less favourable. PKN Orlen is banking on capturing some of the Western European PTA market, which is expected to grow by about 3-4% per annum during 2010-2014, as well as the Polish PTA market, which is growing at a rate of 8-10% per annum. The PTA plant will make Orlen the CEE region's first PTA producer. Investment is estimated at EUR1.16bn and the plant will be in W'oc'awek. Robust growth from exports as well as strong private consumption expenditure underwrote Poland's economic growth in 2010 and this should continue to underpin growth in petrochemicals. A strong external environment will continue to provide a major challenge to economic growth in Poland. Demand from other members of the EU, particularly core states such as Germany and France, should underpin exports in our view. This should, in turn, buttress continued growth in the country's petrochemicals industry. The expansion of the manufacturing sector will support the economic environment within the chemical industry. However, the increase in global crude prices compared to H111 will continue to hamper the competitiveness of Polish petrochemicals, which rely on naphtha for feedstock. However, markets should support cost increases being passed onto consumers, even though ethane-based production elsewhere will have higher margins. Poland's score remains at 58.1 points this quarter, down 0.3 points since the previous quarter due to a decline in its external risk score. Poland maintains second place in our CEE Petrochemicals Business Environment matrix, 0.8 points behind Russia and 2.0 points ahead of Czech Republic. Petrochemicalsspecific scores remain unchanged, with BMI casting doubt on any major capacity additions over the medium term. Diversification of market suppliers and increased feedstock availability could improve Poland's score, although it stands little chance of exceeding Russia ' which should retain its dominant position in Eastern Europe.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Poland Political SWOT . 7 Poland Economic SWOT....... 7 Poland Business Environment SWOT ... 8 Global Petrochemicals Overview ... 9 Financial Results 14 Global Oil Products Price Outlook ..... 15 Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/BBL) ... 16 Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/BBL) ....... 18
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>> Get this Report Now by email! European Petrochemicals Overview .... 19 Poland Market Overview ....... 24 Table: Poland's Cracker Capacity, 2009-2015 ('000tpa) ... 25 Industry Trends And Developments .... 26 Upstream Activities ..... 28 PKN Strategy, 2009-2013 ... 29 Lotos Privatisation ...... 30 Business Environment . 32 Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings .. 32 Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings .. 32 Poland's Business Environment .. 34 Overview ..... 34 Legal Framework 34 Foreign Investment Policy .. 35 Foreign Trade Regime 36 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 37 Market outlook .... 37 Production .. 39 Polish Petrochemicals Sector: Historical Data & Forecasts 2008-2015 ..... 40 Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 41 Poland - Economic Activity. 42 Company Profiles .. 43 Anwil ... 43 J&S Energy . 44 Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen ... 45 Grupa Lotos 48 Glossary Of Terms 52 Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . 52 BMI Methodology .. 53 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 53 Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry .... 53 Cross Checks ...... 54 Business Environment Ratings .... 55 Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..... 55 Weighting .... 56 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 56
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