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Romania Infrastructure Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: We have revised down our 2012 forecast, based on new 2009 data, as the Romanian construction industry faces further problems. The domestic situation is still quite weak and the strength of the rebound has led to the need for a correction. Real growth is forecast at 3.7% next year with industry value expected to rise to US$22.4bn by 2015 when year-on-year (y-o-y) growth will stand at 8%. For 2011, industry value is forecast at just US$16.3bn representing negative real y-o-y growth of -2.6%. This compares with a peak value of US$21bn in 2008. Key themes this quarter include: * The Romanian and Bulgarian governments announced a memorandum of understating (MoU) in September 2011, aimed at jointly developing two large-scale hydropower plants on the Danube River. This was announced by Bulgarian Economy Minister Traicho Traikov following a meeting with his Romanian counterpart Ion Ariton. The projects will enhance bilateral trade and transportation links between the two countries. Once operational, the plants are likely to have a combined annual power generation capacity of more than 3,800 gigawatt hours (GWh). * The Romanian government has signed three contracts, valued at EUR428mn (US$627mn), to design and build three segments of the Orastie Sibiu highway. A contract, valued at approximately EUR167mn (US$244.65mn), was awarded to Austria's Strabag; a consortium headed by Italy's Astaldi received a EUR147mn (US$215.35mn) contract; and a third contract, worth EUR114mn (US$167mn), was awarded to two private companies from Italy and Romania. The project financing is primarily covered by the EU, which is giving financial aid of EUR5.7bn (US$8.35bn) to the nation until 2013 for its road and highway projects. * In July 2011, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) agreed to make a significant new investment in support of Romania's energy generation programme, reported Balkans Business News. The EBRD has committed a loan of EUR110mn (US$155.9mn) to the state-owned S.C. Hidroelectrica, the country's largest electricity producer. The funds will go towards rehabilitating and strengthening the country's renewable energy infrastructure. The strength and quality of Romania's political institutions is poor relative to much of Europe, with significant challenges ahead despite the progress made in the two decades since the fall of communism. However, we believe that Romania's membership of the European Union will spur gradual political development and is very supportive of long-term political stability. With the National Institute of Statistics announcing Q111 real GDP growth of 1.6% y-o-y, our forecast for a return to expansionary conditions in Romania is bolstered. We project that the Romanian economy will expand by 2.1% over the course of 2011, accelerating to 3.3% in 2012. While the return to growth has so far been driven primarily by external demand for Romanian exports, we expect the recovery to broaden through coming quarters.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 7 Romania Infrastructure Industry SWOT ....... 7 Market Overview ...... 8 Romania ..... 8 Building Materials ... 9
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Global Materials ... 9 Europe Overview 16 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 22 Table: Romania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015 ...... 22 Table: Romania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020 ...... 23 Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 24 Transport Infrastructure ....... 25 Table: Romania Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015 .. 25 Table: Romania Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020 .. 27 Transport Infrastructure Industry Forecast Scenario ...... 29 Transport Infrastructure Overview .. 30 Major Projects Table ' Transport ...... 33 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects -- Transport ..... 33 Energy And Utilities Infrastructure ....... 35 Table: Romania Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2015 . 35 Table: Romania Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020 . 37 Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario ...... 39 Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview .. 40 Major Projects Table ' Energy And Utilities ...... 43 Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Energy & Utilities . 43 Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure ...... 45 Table: Romania Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data, 2008-2015 ....... 45 Table: Romania Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data, 2012-2020 ....... 45 Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario . 46 Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview 47 Business Environment . 48 Romania Business Environment ....... 48 Rewards ...... 48 Risks ... 48 Regional Overview ... 49 Eastern Europe Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings .... 49 Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 53 Company Monitor .. 54 Transelectrica ..... 54 Strabag ....... 56 Global Overview .... 58 Methodology .. 65 Industry Forecasts ... 65 Construction Industry . 66 Data Methodology ...... 66 New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors .. 66 Construction ....... 68 Capital Investment ...... 68 Construction Sector Employment 69 Infrastructure Business Environment Rating ... 70 Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators ..... 71
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