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Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: We have revised up our 2011 forecast based on a more bullish macroeconomic outlook. We have also priced in the effects of the 2018 World Cup preparations, which we anticipate will accelerate from 2014 onwards. We maintain our core view that political risk is the main element that could ultimately curtail growth, as public policy remains opaque, convoluted and subject to frequent change. Government meddling in the corporate sector also raises the scope for delays to major projects. The themes that dominate developments in Russia's infrastructure sector are: - The Russian government's decision to create a US$10bn investment fund highlights the state's commitment to sharing the risks inherent in investment in Russia with the private sector ' in an effort to attract a greater level of private capital. The government aims to use this investment fund as seed money to mobilise between US$50bn and US$90bn over the next five years, by financing up to 20% of the cost of privately procured development projects. - The 2018 World Cup win has prompted a change in our long term-forecasts, with growth accelerating, especially in the non-residential and residential construction sector. However, we see risks to the implementation of projects and foresee problems related to project cost overruns. - Furthermore, infrastructure associated with the export of commodities (pipelines, ports and transport infrastructure ' to support oil and gas output in East Siberia) has the highest growth potential ' as development is predicated on growth in the natural resources sector. These projects have been prioritised by the government. Privatisation is also a theme for 2011 ' despite the fact it did not really materialise in 2010 ' as the government seeks to finance the budget deficit (forecast to be US$73bn in 2010, or 6% of GDP) by offloading of assets. Transport and energy assets have been earmarked among the 5,500 state-owned companies in which the state plans to divest stakes. In this respect, EDF's subsidiary ERDF has come to an agreement with Russia's state-owned distribution company MRSK Holding to receive management rights for the Tomsk Distribution Company, one of the eleven regional distribution subsidiaries operating in Russia.
Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 6
Russia Infrastructure SWOT Market Overview Russia
.. 6 .. 7
...... 7
Building Materials Global Materials
.... 10 .... 10
Europe Overview Industry Forecast Scenario
... 17 .... 23
Table: Russia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
..... 23
Table: Russia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario Transport Infrastructure
. 31
Table: Russia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
..... 25 .... 27 ... 31
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Russia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
... 33
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
.. 35
Transport Infrastructure Overview
.. 37
Major Projects Table ' Transport Infrastructure
... 43
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Transport
.. 43
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
...... 49
Table: Russia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
. 49
Table: Russia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
. 51
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
53
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview Oil And Gas Pipelines
54
... 56
Major Projects Table ' Energy And Utilities
... 59
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Energy & Utilities
... 59
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
..... 63
Table: Russia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
...... 63
Table: Russia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
...... 64
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
... 64
Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Overview
..... 66
Major Projects Table ' Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
...... 71
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects ' Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Special Events
Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics
72
Table: Planned Olympic Sports Venues 2018 World Cup
.... 74
. 75
Table: Major Concerns Expressed In FIFA Evaluation Report of Russian Bid Table: Russia World Cup Preparations ' Fact Box Business Environment
Risks
76
... 78
... 78 . 78
Regional Overview
...... 79
Eastern Europe Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings Company Monitor
...... 86 89 ...... 96
Industry Forecasts
...... 96
Construction Industry
... 97
Data Methodology
. 97
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors Construction
.... 83
84
Russian Railways (RZD) Methodology
..... 79
..... 84
Mostootryad No.19 Global Overview
. 75
... 78
Russia Business Environment Rewards
... 71
... 72
. 97
... 99
Capital Investment
. 99
Construction Sector Employment
......100
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
101 ......102
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