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Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary Turkey's petrochemicals imports are surging amid a surge in domestic consumption that is driving strong economic growth, according to BMI's latest Turkey Petrochemicals Report. Turkish plastic imports grew strongly in Q111 due to manufacturing growth. In March, the country imported 420,000 tonnes of polymers in March, the highest monthly level in over 10 years. However, there was a slight decline in April when imports totalled 370,000 tonnes, although on a year-on-year basis imports were up 16.4%. The rising value of the euro against the US dollar affected the competitiveness of eurozone products on the Turkish market, leading to an increase in market share for producers in the Middle East and the US. The petrochemicals market will continue to hold up due to strong fixed investment and consumption, with the latter showing little sign of slowing thus far in 2011 despite the government's ongoing attempts to curb rampant credit growth. Manufacturing capacity utilisation continues to normalise towards pre-crisis levels, bolstering the petrochemicals market. The influx in imports demonstrates the potential of Turkey's petrochemicals industry, which only fulfils a fraction of domestic demand. Turkey's needs have to be covered largely by imports, with PVC 81% imported, PP 87% and HDPE 80%. In the case of LDPE, local production meets around 50-60% of needs. This potential is driving investment by SOCAR in the privatised Turkish petrochemicals company Petkim which it acquired as part of a consortium in 2008. SOCAR has recently raised its stake in the controlling consortium from 51% to nearly 75%. Around US$3.0-3.5bn will be invested in the construction of a 200,000b/d refinery, due to be completed by 2015, with a significant proportion of the rest invested in downstream activities as well as infrastructure. SOCAR is committed to transforming Petkim into an export-oriented company, with better access to European markets. It plans to invest a total of US$10bn in Petkim's operations over the next seven to eight years. However, exports to the EU will be crucial to sustained growth in Turkish demand for petrochemicals. Converters supplying to the export-oriented automotive and consumer goods industries will increase demand for basic plastics. Strong manufacturing growth indicates considerable resilience of the Turkish export sector in the face of fiscal austerity programmes initiated in Europe and appears to brush off concerns of an unwinding of inventory restocking cycles in OECD countries. Turkey's high dependence on European demand for its exports should pose no threat to export-oriented producers that demand on petrochemicals as raw material. Industrial production is set to rise by 11.4% in 2011, sustaining the growth seen in 2010 which hit 13.3%. Manufacturing capacity utilisation rates should reach pre-crisis levels by end-2011. However, capacity constraints and the return to normality in key export markets will reduce growth rates to 5-6% over the following four years. This should lead to a decline in petrochemicals import growth and as new petrochemicals plants come online imports will decline. Turkey remains in fifth place in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings this quarter with 47.2 points. This puts it 1.0 points ahead of Romania and Slovakia and 8.5 points behind Hungary. Turkey's strength lies in the improvements in market risks, particularly following Petkim's privatisation, but this has been partly offset by a decline in its country risk score amid economic recession and deteriorating indicators. Foreign investment is being encouraged into downstream sectors in order to bolster the country's industrialisation.
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>> Get this Report Now by email! SWOT Analysis 7 Turkey Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 7 Turkey Political SWOT . 7 Turkey Economic SWOT ... 8 Turkey Business Environment SWOT 8 Global Petrochemicals Overview ... 9 Financial Results 14 European Petrochemicals Overview 15 Turkey Market Overview ... 20 Market Structure . 21 Market Evolution 22 Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals Sector ' Cracker Capacity, 2008-2014 ('000tpa) .. 22 Petrochemicals Business Environment... 23 Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings .. 23 Industry Trends And Developments 25 Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals And Plastics Market, 2004-2015 .. 25 Post-Privatisation ... 26 Projects And Expansions 27 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 29 Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals Industry, 2008-2015 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) .. 31 Macroeconomic Activity . 32 Table: Turkey ' Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .. 34 Company Monitor .. 35 DuPont (Advansa) .. 35 Petkim . 36 Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T端pra') .. 38 Glossary Of Terms 40 Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . 40 BMI Methodology .. 41 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 41 Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 41 Cross Checks .. 42 Business Environment Ratings 42 Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale . 43 Weighting 44 Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 44
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