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Ukraine Power Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011
Report Summary The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country's power consumption will rise from 147.5TWh in 2010 to 187.6TWh by the end of the forecast period, representing average annual growth of 2.4% in 2011-2020. After power industry usage and system losses, we see surplus supply rising from the estimated 23.5TWh level seen in 2010 to 35.1Wh by 2020, assuming 2.7% average annual growth in power generation during the period. Ukraine power generation in 2010 is put by BMI at 171.0TWh, having recovered somewhat from the depressed 2009 level of 164.4TWh. BMI is forecasting an average 2.0% annual increase to 189.2TWh between 2011 and 2015. Thermal generation, comprising coal, gas and oil, is expected to increase by more than 2.0% per annum between now and 2020. We expect gas-fired power generation to climb 3.2% per annum between 2011 and 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3% forecast to 2020. Gas-fired generation should therefore reach 25.5TWh by 2015 and just over 30.0TWh by 2020. The share of total Ukrainian power generation should therefore increase from 12.7% to 13.5% by the end of the forecast period. Coal-fired generation will have accounted for 32.4% of the country's total generation in 2010, according to BMI estimates. We expect the fuel's market share to be 32.1% by 2015, firing a projected 60.8TWh. By 2020, coal's share of generation is forecast at 30.3%, representing 67.4TWh. Nuclear power generation is one of the key contributors to the Ukrainian electricity sector. Expansion of existing capacity should take generation from an estimated 82.1TWh in 2010 to at least 90.1TWh by 2015, and nuclear's share of overall generation is forecast to ease from 48.0% to 47.6%. In the long term this is the area of electricity supply set to see the strongest growth, as the country has plans to build new power stations. Ukraine holds eighth place ahead only of the Czech Republic in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating. There is no reason to expect that Ukraine will be able to mount a challenge for further promotion over the short to medium term, although Slovakia is only just above it. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country's electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.
Table of Content Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Ukraine Power SWOT .. 6 Industry Overview ... 7 Global ... 7 Global Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) 7 Global Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh) ..... 8 Global Table: Total Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) . 9 Central/Eastern Europe ...... 10 Table: Total Generation Data (TWh) .. 11 Table: Total Consumption Data (TWh)....... 11 Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data (MW) ... 13 Market Overview ' Ukraine... 14
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Regulation And Competition ....... 14 Power Transmission ... 16 Business Environment . 17 Central and Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings .... 17 Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings 17 Ukraine's Power Rating ..... 17 Rewards ...... 18 Risks ... 18 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 19 Table: Ukraine Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .. 19 Table: Ukraine Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) 21 Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh). 23 Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ...... 23 Table: Ukraine Power Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) . 23 Table: Ukraine Power Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ...... 23 Table: Ukraine Total Net Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) . 24 Table: Ukraine Total Net Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) ...... 24 Table: Ukraine Consumption by Energy Sector Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (TWh) .... 24 Table: Ukraine Consumption by Energy Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (TWh) .. 25 Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW) .... 26 Table: Ukraine Electrcity Generation Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 (MW) .. 27 Ukraine's Power Outlook ... 29 Generation .. 30 Gas-Fired ... 30 Oil-Fired ..... 30 Coal-Fired .. 30 Nuclear Energy ... 30 Hydro-Electric .... 31 Renewable Energy ...... 32 Transmission ....... 32 Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ....... 32 Competitive Landscape 33 Ukrenergo ... 34 AES ..... 34 BMI Methodology .. 35 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 35 Power Industry ... 35 Cross-Checks ...... 36 Sources ....... 36
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