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Ukraine Real Estate Report Q3 2011 Published on July 2011
Report Summary Ukraine's real estate sector appears to have turned a corner following sharp falls in property values. Change has been driven by a rebounding economy accompanied by a rising demand for property, leading to a lift in both values and rents. Over the course of 2010, rental rates rose by about 5-10% on 2009 levels in Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev, and by about twice that amount in Kharkov. We expect that rental rates will track sideways, or decline very slightly, during 2011. However, at this stage there are good indications that growth will resume in 2012. Some of the key opportunities currently in the real estate market are: - A recovering level of demand for, in particular, high quality property in the office and retail space. - An increase in rents from the very low levels seen during 2008-200 - A recovery in values at a rate that is expected to see yields track sideways. The implication is that capital values will track rental rates. - Our bullish outlook for global commodity prices bodes well for Ukraine, which is heavily dependent on raw material exports. We expect Ukrainian exports to grow by 5.2% in 2011. Some key risks to the current real estate market are: - One or more of the leading players in the commercial real estate market might fail. - The economic recovery is weak and could be derailed. Our long-held view is for the economic recovery to slow in 2011. We expect final consumption expenditure to expand by just 0.4% in real terms. Credit growth to households in Ukraine continues to stagnate and we broadly expect this to persist over the medium term.
Table of Content Executive Summary . 5 SWOT Analysis .... 6 Ukraine Real Estate/Construction SWOT .. 6 Ukraine Economic SWOT . 6 Ukraine Business Environment SWOT .. 7 Real Estate Market Overview .. 8 Table: Ukraine's Real Estate Market ' Historic Rents, 2009 And 2010 (m2/month, EUR) .... 8 Table: Ukraine's Real Estate Market ' Net Yields, 2010 And 2011 (%) .. 9 Table: Ukraine's Real Estate Market ' Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2010 .. 9 Table: Ukraine's Real Estate Market ' Available (m2) And Vacant Space, Mid-2010 .... 10 Real Estate Market Analysis 11 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 12 Real Estate Outlook ... 12 Table: Ukraine's Real Estate Market ' Rentals, 2010-2012 (m²/month, EUR) 13 Table: Ukraine's Real Estate Market ' Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2015 (%) ... 14 Construction And Infrastructure Outlook 15 Table: Ukraine Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data .. 15
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Ukraine Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data .. 16 Macroeconomic Outlook . 19 Table: Ukraine - GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2015 21 Business Environment .... 23 Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings . 23 Table: Europe Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating 23 Ukraine's RECBER.... 24 Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Central And Eastern Europe 25 Table: Design And Construction Rating .. 27 Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating ... 28 Table: Overall Project Finance Rating .... 30 Ukraine's Business Environment ... 31 Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings .. 32 Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating . 33 Table: Labour Force Quality .... 37 Table: Emerging Europe - Annual FDI Inflows . 39 Table: Trade And Investment Ratings . 41 Table: Top Export Destinations 42 Competitive Landscape ... 44 Company Profiles ... 45 Aerobud . 45 Aisi Realty Public Limited ... 47 Kyivmiskbud Holdings .... 49 Seven Hills LLC .... 51 TKS Management.. 53 TMM . 54 XXI Century Investments. 56 BMI Methodology ... 58 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 58 Construction Industry 59 Bank Lending ... 60 Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating ... 60 Table: Weighting Of Indicators 61 Project Finance Ratings Indicators .... 63 Table: Design And Construction Phase ... 63 Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Commercial Construction 64 Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Energy And Utilities .... 65 Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Transport 67 Sources .. 68
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