Pickens and mehrotra_Air pollution, New Delhi

AIR POLLUTION IN DELHI Meagan Pickens and Ridhima Mehrotra

DECEMBER 16, 2016 FALL 2016 | URSP 606 Dr. Chengri Ding

Pickens and Mehrotra 1

Table of Contents I.

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 2

II.

Root Causes ......................................................................................................................... 4

III.

Impacts of Air Pollution: ................................................................................................... 14

IV.

Policies Adopted to Curb Air Pollution in Delhi: .............................................................. 20

V.

Comparison to Beijing ....................................................................................................... 32

VI.

Analysis.............................................................................................................................. 34

VII.

Conclusion: ........................................................................................................................ 41

Works Cited .................................................................................................................................. 43

Pickens and Mehrotra 2

I.

Introduction

“In the city of Delhi, exposure to the air is equal to smoking maybe 10 cigarettes a day�

-Rajnish Chawla, Respiratory Physician, Indraprastha Apollo, New Delhi The World Health Organization has ranked New Delhi number one in having the worst air quality in the world. The capital city and economic backbone of India, is one of the fastest growing cities in the world. It ranks fifth in population among cities in the world and is largest in area within India. Delhi is called the NCT, National Capital Territory, and together with its surrounding areas is called NCR, National Capital Region. The NCT has an estimated population of 18.6 million as of 2016 and the NCR has 24 million as of 2014 Census data (Economic Survey Of India, 2014-15).

Since the 6th century AD, Delhi is said to have been continuously lived in and inhabited by people. It also became the capital of many kingdoms and empires until the British finally made it the capital of India in 1911 AD. Delhi is recognized as the mythical site of Indraprastha which was the capital of Pandavas in the legend of Mahabharta. It is spread over the western banks of the Yamuna River and has been a major trade route between Northwest India and the Gangetic Plain (Delhi Population 2016, 2016). Delhi has a female to male ratio of 866 to 1,000 and 86% literacy rate. The total area of Delhi is 1483 sq/km with a density of 11,320 persons per sq/km per the 2011 Census. Forty-two percent of daily trips, according to the 2014 Census, are made by public transport, while car ownership is 131 cars per 1,000 people. Delhi also has the highest per capita income in India. Despite this prosperity, Delhi is struggling with its growing population and congestion along with the degrading health of its people. In its pledge to grow, being one of the fastest developing nations in the world, it has failed to create a balance between

Pickens and Mehrotra 3 economy and the health of its environment. Stemming from these problems is the serious issue of air pollution.

Figure 1. Ambient Monitoring Data in Delhi Source:http://www.delhiairquality.info/monitoring-data/

Air has always been available and accessible to humans. Early urbanization of cities was not dependent on it, resulting in nothing called ‘air markets.’ But the process of urbanization and industrialization has rendered poor air quality. Urban expansion, emerging suburbs, and satellite towns have contributed to increasing distances which create the need of transportation infrastructure which directly contributed to this cause apart from capitalist development. Delhi, which has remained mostly negligent towards improving its air quality, only became aware of the issue in the 1980s. The slow pace of actions has culminated to a present which is a catastrophe to human health and its economy and perhaps more devastating to its future generations. According to WHO, the fifth major killer in India is air pollution. According to the

Pickens and Mehrotra 4 survey of Indian Institute of Meteorology, the transport sector causes 45% of air pollution, the highest among all other factors and lastly, according to the IIT Kanpur report, vehicles rank second after road dust in emitting PM2.5 particles into the air (Mrs.V. Sree Pavani, 2016).

Figure 2. IIT Kanpur’s Comprehensive Study on Air Pollution and Green House Gases (GHGs) in Delhi (Draft Report: Air Pollution)

Delhi's air pollution creates a case study for what can happen when issues get out of control. In this paper, we seek to analyze the root causes of air pollution, its impacts and the policies that have already been implemented, along with style of implementation, to better understand how Delhi should manage and could better respond to issues like air pollution and the implementation of policies to control them.

II.

Root Causes There is unfortunately not one simple cause of Delhi’s pollution. Instead, the causes are

many and stem from different practices ranging from how citizens of the city get to and from

Pickens and Mehrotra 5 work, to how these citizens dispose of waste to how citizens prepare their meals, daily. On top of this, seasonal and special activities add to the air pollution, as will be discussed. By deliberating on each of the root causes, the goal is to provide a better understanding of what parts of the pollution certain policies seek to tackle, so that it is clear why they are/are not working to effectively address as much of the problem as possible.

At the forefront of Delhi’s pollution issue are vehicles, ranging what type of vehicles are being used to how many are operated in and around the city. As of July 31st, of 2016 over six million cars were registered with Delhi’s government (Kajal, 2016). In 2014, a news outlet reported that Delhi adds another 1400 cars to its roads every single day. Thus, in the last 11 years, the vehicular population in the national capital, which does not include the surrounding suburbs of Delhi, registered a 135.9 percent jump in nearly the same period of time (Angre, 2014; Press Trust of India, 2013). The highest growth of new vehicles, 707 percent, were noted to be taxis (Press Trust of India, 2013). This is important to note because taxis are not cars that take maybe one or two trips in and out of the city per day, but vehicles that stay on the road, continuously running and thus rarely stopping from adding to pollutants in the air.

Pickens and Mehrotra 6

Figure 3. Motor vehicle population in India 1951 to 2002 Source:http://www.zanran.com/q/Annual_growth_rates_of_motor_vehicles_in_major_Indian_cities

The explosion in car ownership has also been linked to flaws in Delhi’s public transport bus system. In recent years, a Delhi Supreme Court order stated that the city was supposed to have 11,000 public transport buses. In contrast, only 6251 are in service, meaning that a large portion of the population is likely taking single occupancy vehicles to and from work. It was also reported that many people in Delhi choose to use vehicles for these trips because no bus comes to their area (Angre, 2013).

Stemming from the root cause of there just being too many cars on the road adding to Delhi’s pollution, is the type of car that is on the road, and the types of emissions that those cars are giving off as they run. In Delhi, a substantial number of the vehicles that are operated in and around the city run on diesel. In the period from 2013-14 it was noted that Delhi used 11.32 lakh tons of diesel which is up 39.6% from when an early study was conducted four years before (Chatterjee, 2015).

Pickens and Mehrotra 7 Part of the reason that there has been a spike in the use of diesel in recent years can be attributed to the closing gap between CNG fuel and diesel, causing consumers to be more willing to purchase the diesel, even if it is the less environmentally friendly option. One source noted that the spike in use of cars that run on diesel has been accompanied by a spike in mobile towers and malls, which use generator sets that run on diesel (Chatterjee, 2015). One more thing to note here is that diesel could be easily adulterated, another reason to explain its increased usage. All of these uses together add to the emissions in the air and help to cause Delhi’s massive issue with air pollution.

Another root cause relating to air pollution caused by vehicles is the level of congestion in the city. In Delhi, the rapid growth of the population and imbalance in the distribution of income among its people has created chaos in the transportation systems. Because of this, vehicles such as cars, buses, taxis, and auto rickshaws share the same roadway as bicycles, carts, animals and pedestrians. Furthermore, there is no designated lane system for these different categories of vehicles and modes of transportation to be divided into. This therefore slows down the traffic, causing people’s cars to release even more emissions into the air as these cars stall in traffic (Kokaz, Harshadeep, Rogers, and Srinivasan, 2000).

Air pollution caused by congestion on the roadways can be understood as going together with a noticeable increase in infrastructure and capital, along with increased traffic plans, in recent years within the city. Already, Five National Highways, NH1, NH2, NH10, NH8 and NH24 pass through Delhi. These highways are important because they contribute to Delhi as a major capital for trade and distribution. These major highways that cut through and surround Delhi only add to emission from vehicles in the air. Still, road infrastructure in Delhi has only increased. From 1971 to 1997 the road infrastructure in Delhi is noted to have tripled. In

Pickens and Mehrotra 8 contrast, the number of cars on Delhi’s roads in that time grew by thirteen times as many (Department of Planning Government of NCT of Delhi, 2000). This means that cars still exceeded a comfortable capacity for these roads, even as the government did what they could to accommodate the growth of vehicular transportation on Delhi’s roads. In the twenty-first century, the problem only grew as Delhi’s population and growth in use of vehicles grew. From 2000 to 2011, the road network in the capital city increased from 28,508 kilometers to 32,663 kilometers (Press Trust of India, 2013). This sort of growth in infrastructure was likely done to relieve traffic on other roads, done with the premise that multiple new routes would allow more pathways for vehicles to take, thus moving them faster and getting them where they need to be more quickly. Unfortunately, these additions in infrastructure seem to have continued to occur simultaneously in the first decade of the twenty-first century, just as they did in the latter half of the twentieth century, leaving Delhi just as congested as before and again adding to the problem of air pollution within the city.

Even though vehicles and issues arising from their use contribute massively to Delhi’s problem of air pollution, there are still many more practices that occur in India that have nothing to do with cars that contribute to air pollution. One example of this is coal fired power plants that operate within Delhi. In India, as a whole, and thus in Delhi, coal remains the main fossil fuel for power generation (Guttikunda, Jawahar, 2014). In Delhi, there are currently three coal burning power plants, Rajghat Coal Power Station, Indraprastha Coal Power Station, and Badarpur Coal Power Station (Global Energy Observatory, 2016). Though there is little information on Delhi alone, research shows that in all of India as many as 115,000 people die from coal-fired plant pollution each year and that coal plants cost India about $4.6 Billion each year (Guttikunda, Jawahar, 2014). Because of the coal fired power plants that Delhi has, it is not unreasonable to

Pickens and Mehrotra 9 conclude that this pollution and the stations are also costing Delhi both lives and money as well.

Furthermore, it expected that for India as whole, the amount of power generated from coal will continue to remain high at least through 2030 (Guttikunda, Jawahar, 2014).

The root causes for air pollution in Delhi are not just outdoors, some of them even occur within the citizen’s own homes. According to the Indian National Census, in 2001 seventy-five percent of households used solid fuels for cooking. In India, an estimated 400,000 deaths from Acute Lower Respiratory Infection in children younger than five and 34,000 deaths from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in women are attributed annually to household solid fuel use (Balakrishnan, Ramaswamy, Sambandam, Thangavel, Ghosh, Johnson, Mukhopadhyay, Venugopal, & Thanasekaraan, 2011). While this statistic deals with India as a whole, it is likely that Delhi contributes a number of these deaths, as the same cooking practices occur within this city as well. This statistic also makes this the third leading risk factor amongst all risk factors contributing to the national burden of disease and exceeding the burden attributable to outdoor air pollution. Lastly, one study concluded that the issue of solid fuel use related smoke exposures is now well recognized as an important risk factor for the global and national burden of disease amongst researchers in the discipline. Because of this, cooking fuel and its use within Indian homes is said by researchers to beg serious consideration by funding agencies and policymakers (Balakrishnan et al, 2011).

Additional important root cause for Delhi’s air pollution can be found in trash fires. In Delhi, one of the main ways to remove waste is to burn it. Furthermore, in the winter, the benefit is two-fold, as it both removes trash and the resulting heat helps create warmth. Still, burning trash can contain plastic, metal and rubber items, all of which can give off toxic emissions. The Central Pollution Control Board of India estimated that garbage burning in the open air

Pickens and Mehrotra 10 contributes anywhere from 5% to 11% of all direct particulate matter in Indian cities’ air (Abrams, 2015). Though there does not seem to be clear data collected about the percentages of particulate matter in the air for Delhi alone, it is likely that this city follows this pattern on a smaller scale.

Still it is certain that trash burning does occur on a large scale in Delhi. An average of 190 to 246 tons of trash are burned in New Delhi each day throughout both the summer and winter. Still, it is important to note that it is hard for officials and researchers to fairly come up with averages for the amount of trash burned in Delhi each day. The reason for this is that trash is often burned in small piles across neighborhoods in Delhi, unlike point-source pollution, where the level of pollutants emitted into the air can be more easily quantified (Abrams, 2015).

Even though it may seem small, some reports show that traffic pollution contributes just one percent more air pollution than trash fires, which proves that it is a much more serious issue than the idea might topically suggest (Sharma, 2016).

Though trash fires are a root cause in and of themselves, there are also reasons why trash fires are a part of a normal way of life in Delhi. The first is a lack of an effective waste management system in Delhi. Without some place for all of the trash to go and an agency that collects it and takes it there, trash piles up and after a while it gets in the way and citizens have to find a way to get rid of it. The easiest and fastest conclusion is to burn it (Sharma, 2016).

Furthermore, reports show that trash burning is more likely to happen in poorer areas of the city, where citizens are unable to pay for trash removal and afford luxuries of warm heaters in winter (Abrams, 2015). Thus, the issue of trash burning seems to highlight a larger problem within Delhi, which is a division in classes and the inability of the government to provide an important service to all areas of the city (Sharma, 2016). Because the city seems to have chosen to not use

Pickens and Mehrotra 11 government expenditures to find ways to move trash, the reaction ends up adding to the pollution of Delhi.

One other root cause, though somewhat indirect, is a lack of air quality monitoring within Delhi. According to one researcher, the issue of how to monitor air quality is often comes down to having just one or two expensive, regulatory grade monitors or widely distributed, low-cost sensors. This creates a problem because with the first, data is only obtained for specific areas and not all of Delhi and with the second the data may not be as precise, accurate or sensitive as necessary to provide the right kind of quantitative measurements (Miller, 2016). If air quality is not properly monitored, then the effectiveness of policies that are implemented to combat air pollution cannot be fully understood and studied. This, in turn, could lead to a standstill in finding real ways to curb air pollution within the city. Still, some progress is being made, as a new quality monitoring system was imposed by the government just last year, in 2015 (Hindustan Times Correspondent, 2015). Should this new system work, this indirect root cause could be removed from the list.

Thus far, most of the issues discussed have added to pollution in larger ways, and tend to occur in mass amounts year-round. Still, other practices and trends add to Delhi’s polluted air.

These issues are often less cited in general discussions and literature about air pollution in Delhi, which is why it is important that they are noted here alongside the more often recognized issues, so that they may be considered when it comes time to think of a full response to combating the issue of air pollution within cities.

The first of these less cited issues is rapid growth. According to research, density and growth of cities can lead to increased greenhouse gases surrounding a city, thus adding to pollution (Floater, Rode, Robert, Kennedy, Hoornweg, Slavcheva, Godfrey, 2014). Greenhouse

Pickens and Mehrotra 12 gases consist of compounds that lead to the trapping of heat and eventually lead to the Greenhouse Effect and is considered one of the root causes for Global Warming (What’s Your Impact, 2016). One of the main greenhouse gases is CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) which humans emit naturally when they breath out. As population in a metropolis (and on the planet as whole) grows and increases the demand for oil, gas and coal, the output of CO2 also grows, thereby increasing Global Warming and air pollution (Scientific American, 2014).

The second issue that often seems to be overlooked is the use of fireworks within Delhi.

In particular, citizens of Delhi use fireworks on a large scale to celebrate certain festivals, wedding ceremonies, rituals and holidays. The main one of these, is the celebration of Diwali, a festival, which celebrates the triumph over good and evil and light over dark. Diwali takes place in the last week of October, a time when trash burning is ramping up, and as will be discussed later in this study, crop burning is beginning to occur for the season (Agerholm, 2016).

Furthermore, cooler temperatures and slowing, weak winds, that are typical of that time of year, causes the air to not get blown away and thus gets trapped at ground level, causing people to breath more of the pollutants in than would even be seen on a regular day in Delhi (Mills, 2016).

After the most recent Diwali festivities, many news outlets reported alarming statistics relating to the air quality in Delhi. On the Monday after Diwali, Delhi’s air measured 999 on the Air Quality Index. By contrast, it is considered safe to breathe air with a score of up to 150 (Agerholm, 2016). Furthermore, in one neighborhood of Delhi, levels of pollutants were thirty times the World Health Organization’s recommended level (Mills, 2016). Though it only happens once a year, it is clear that Diwali and the fireworks that are used to celebrate it do add to a problem that already cannot handle much more. Thus, this has led some environmentalists to

Pickens and Mehrotra 13 argue that Delhi’s air remains so polluted throughout the year that it does not have extra room for additional pollution during Diwali.

The third less cited issue adding to Delhi’s air pollution is the practice of crop burning.

Crop burning occurs mostly in the neighboring agrarian states bordering Delhi. Similar to the premise behind trash burning, crop burning is a traditional way for farmers to decompose leftovers after they harvest produce, which in turn clears the field for replanting. Smoke from the burning then rises and falls on Delhi, often during the winters, when the pollution is particularly alarming. While the practice is illegal in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, NASA photos have indicated that the practice continues at a strong rate. These photos from NASA show that hundreds of crop fires were burning in recent years at one time in Northern India. When asked about this, officials note that even though the practice has been illegal, it is hard to implement and enforce the ban because there is concern about making life unreasonable hard for farmers, who are often already poor (Kelkar, 2014).

Pickens and Mehrotra 14

Figure 4. Variation in Emission causes by Seasons Source: http://urbanemissions.blogspot.com/2012/11/pollution-in-delhi-winter-time-highs.html

III.

Impacts of Air Pollution: The impacts of air pollution in Delhi are wide ranging and reach a number of different,

equally important topics. In this study, five main categories of impact are discussed, though it is likely that air pollution impacts the city in ways that have yet to be looked into. These five main categories of impact are economic, health, environmental, socio-spatial, and political.

The first of the five categories to identify was the economic impact of air pollution on Delhi. One main cost of air pollution to society, economically, is the direct productivity loss.

According to some studies this loss in large Indian cities – like Delhi – are as high as nearly onetenth of the income generated in these cities from all economic activities combined (Lvovsky,

Pickens and Mehrotra 15 1998). Even just this year, news sources conjectured about the economic impact that could be expected due to Delhi’s air pollution. As Delhi and the NCR (National Capital Region) continues to make news for excessive air pollution, it is a concern that tourism could decrease. The article states that post-Diwali pollution could take a toll of possibly several billions of dollars in sectors such as tourism, transport, automobile and real estate (Press Trust India, 2016).

Furthermore, one study that was reviewed links economic impact to the impacts that Delhi takes economically in terms of what loss of productivity due to air pollution can do and in terms of what treating the illnesses associated with air pollution cost the society in terms of cost of healthcare (Lvovsky, 1998). This leads to understanding the other impacts that Delhi’s air pollution can have on health.

First, direct particulate matter emissions are produced directly into the air and can be harmful to health by aggravating respiratory problems and contributing to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases as well as lung cancer (Abrams, 2015). In India, and thus Delhi, the third highest health risk is household air pollution, sitting just behind high blood pressure and high fasting plasma glucose, as opposed to high sodium in China and high blood pressure in the United States and United Kingdom (Bellman, 2015). Furthermore, according to the World Health Organization, 620,000 people die every year in India from diseases relating to pollution (Agerholm, 2016). Considering Delhi’s large problem with pollution, it is reasonable to assume that the percentage of deaths within this city is also comparable. Lastly, India already has the world’s highest rate of death from respiratory disease. For India, the statistics are 159 deaths per 100,000 people in 2012, a rate that is twice that of China (Mills, 2016). Since the particles emitted into the air due to air pollution are largely a cause of widespread respiratory problems, it is reasonable to believe that this impact on health is nearly directly.

Pickens and Mehrotra 16 The third category of impact that it is important to cover is environmental. Some studies have linked air pollution to seven specific effects that can be expected should this issue occur over a steady amount of time. These seven effects are acid rain, eutrophication, haze, negative impact on wildlife, ozone depletion, crop and forest damage and decline in overall environmental impact (Greentumble Editorial Team, 2016). Several of these have already occurred in Delhi.

Acid rain is rain that contains high levels of nitric and sulfuric acids. It is noted to mostly be caused by the burning of fossil fuels, like what happens in coal-burning power plants, factories and automobiles, though it can happen due to rotting vegetation and erupting volcanoes as well. Acid rain, in return, can have disastrous ecological effects. Due to runoff, it is very easy for acid rain to cover many miles, encountering numerous watersheds and running into lakes and streams. Thus, lakes and other wetlands can be tainted by the chemicals that the acid rain caries, making it toxic for the wildlife that makes their homes in these areas. Acid rain also has negative impacts on forests, because the chemicals in the acid remove the necessary nutrients that it needs to help trees grow, live and reproduce. Since much wildlife also uses these soils and trees as a habitat to live in, the impact of acid rain can have a domino effect as wildlife is depleted due to its effects on the soil (National Geographic, 2016).

A further worry of acid rain is the buildings and monuments in the area of archaeological and historical importance. For Delhi, the increase in Sulphur dioxide (the main chemical in acid rain) concentration in the air is causing increasing concern in regards to corrosion of Red Fort (a historic residence of the Mughal emperor for nearly 200 years, located in Delhi) and other historical buildings and monuments made of stone (Kakkar, 2014; UNESCO, 2016).

A 1999 study of the possibility of acid rain in Delhi discusses the likelihood of acid rain in Delhi.

This study notes that while acid rain has not typically occurred in this area and the climate does

Pickens and Mehrotra 17 not sustain acid rain, the likelihood of occurrence of acid rain could rise. One large reason that this article states is that the government has continued to encourage diesel usage, which contains a small percentage of Sulphur in it. After collecting data from 10 Indian Background Air Pollution Monitoring Stations, the study found that rain in and around Delhi and other Indian cities is getting increasingly acidic (Down to Earth, 1999). Because this diesel usage has only increased, it is likely that the concern regarding acid rain is much higher today.

Another environmental impact of air pollution is eutrophication. Eutrophication is the occurrence of a conglomeration of richness of nutrients in a lake or other body of water (Merriam-Webster, 2016). In 2012, a study done by two researchers in India was done on the accelerated phosphate and nitrate level and included factors to blame for eutrophication in the Yamuna River – which runs through Delhi. The study found that eutrophication was higher in the monsoon season when compared to the summer season. Beyond this, the conclusion stated that eutrophication in water bodies can make them unfit for drinking and can interfere with fishing and navigation. The study also attributes the increase in eutrophication to population growth, industrialization and excessive use of fertilizers. If not limited, eutrophication can eventually lead to unhealthy lakes and streams, unfit for wildlife habitation (Kaur and Singh, 2012).

The third of the six environmental impacts is haze. Haze appears similar to fog, but it caused by fine particles caused by pollution in the air (Department of Health, 2011). Some pollutants have a direct impact on the worsening of haze, such as power plants, industrial facilities, and automobiles. Haze mainly effects visibility, but can also have serious impacts on health and the environment. The very small particles that cause haze can also find themselves in people’s lungs, causing respiratory illness and even death (Department of Environmental

Pickens and Mehrotra 18 Quality, 2016). This has also discouraged morning or evening jogs and people are more looking into gyms to run on treadmills.

The other environmental impacts of air pollution are the results of long-term inability to combat the issue and are the result of a domino effect, where air pollution causes short term problems that then lead to larger, harder to diminish long term problems. These impacts are adverse effects on wildlife, ozone depletion, crop and forest damage, and decline in overall environmental impact, all of which could then lead to impacts economically, as both health and environmental impacts go hand in hand with economic impact.

Improving environmental quality in cities has now become an important subject for power and politics. More urban political discourses till now have focused on water, forests and park lands because it is difficult to capture, manage or commoditize air; it is easy to define watersheds but not airsheds. Also, air pollution has been deliberated only in the environmental justice literature which mostly lacks political analysis. But there occurs an indirect ‘air market,’.

It is observed that large premiums are paid for the purchase of residential properties in the areas with cleaner air and in Delhi it is an important factor in the property market (Veron, 2006). The distribution of urban forests in the city does influence access to clean air.

It’s observed that the economically and socially weaker sections of the society are more vulnerable to the effects of air pollution (Veron, 2006). Air quality indirectly affects the property values and sensitivities of neighborhoods. The Master Plan for Delhi formed in 1962 has been criticized for its failure to provide spaces for the weaker economical classes and the migrants who settled after the India-Pakistan partition. Between 1951 and 2001, the population grew exponentially, from 1.7 million to 13.8 million giving rise to slums, informal settlements and shanties (jhuggies). These people are more directly exposed to pollution because they usually

Pickens and Mehrotra 19 walk, cycle, work along roads, in open and drive cycle rickshaws, auto rickshaws and battery rickshaws for their living. On the other side, women in Delhi are exposed to the smoke inside houses from cooking in traditional ovens which use kerosene oil. While already suffering from malnutrition, unsafe drinking water, and insanitary conditions, air pollution only adds to this misery.

Figure 5. Top 10 avoidable ways to die around the world Source: The Wall Street Journal Risk; ranking set using 2013 disability adjusted life years http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/09/15/top-10-avoidable-ways-to-die-around-the-world-show-deadly-development/

Pickens and Mehrotra 20

IV. Policies Adopted to Curb Air Pollution in Delhi: CNG Implementation Compressed natural Gas (CNG) forms nearly 10% of the national energy market. Almost twothirds of its production is consumed by the fertilizer industry and power generation, where only 2% is used by the transportation sector (Roychowdhury, 2010). In order to achieve cleaner emissions to curb air pollution and its subsequent ill health effects, CNG was recognized as a safer automobile fuel under the Central Motor Vehicle Act of 1994 (Wakdikar, 2002). It was considered more efficient than diesel in terms of reducing both air and noise pollution. “The Bhure Lal Committee1 had termed CNG as well as ULSD as only ‘environmentally acceptable’ fuels and not clean fuels” (Wakdikar, 2002). It has also been considered a ‘non-adulterable’ fuel by the Supreme Court of India.

In 1985 an environmental NGO owner and environmental lawyer, M. C. Mehta filed a PIL2 (Public Interest Litigation) to enact the 1981 Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act in the area surrounding India’s National Capital Region, NCR, (Jha, 2012). Based on the 1985 PIL, Right to Clean Environment, EPCA (Environment pollution Prevention and Control Authority) was formed by the Ministry of Environment and Forest in 1998. In July of 1998 on the recommendation of EPCA, the Supreme Court legislation ordered the following measures for controlling vehicular pollution, while making it mandatory for the conversion of all public

1

The EPCA, Environment pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority set up by the Supreme Court to assist the Amicus Curie, Mr Harish Salve, on matters of pollution and environment in Delhi, consists of Bhure Lal (a bureaucrat), Kiran Dhingra (a bureaucrat), Anil Agarwal (chief executive of the NGO Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi) , Jagdish Khattar (Chairman and Managing Director), Maruti Udyog Limited, a prominent vehicle manufacturing company) , and Dilip Biswas (Chairman Central Pollution Control Board) which is collectively known as Bhure Lal Committee.

2 Public Interest Litigation rule is a part of the Constitution of India which enables any citizen to address directly the Supreme Court.

Pickens and Mehrotra 21 transport to CNG by the deadline of March 31st, 2001. (Wakdikar, 2002) The measures included elimination of leaded petrol, replacement of old rickshaws and taxis (pre 1990 vehicles), financial incentive for replacing vehicles post 1990, ban on eight year old buses other than using CNG to run by April 1st, 2000, conversion of all public buses and auto rickshaws to single fuel mode of CNG (Compressed Natural Gas), order for all taxis plying in the city to convert to CNG, new emission standards for private vehicles, banning of diesel trucks during daytime in Delhi (Roychowdhury, 2010).

Figures showed that nearly 2200 buses, 25,000 three wheelers, 6000 taxis and 10,000 cars were converted to CNG (Goyal P., 2003). The implementation phase brought to light some issues and problems related to this progression. A good share of the public transport (i.e. auto rickshaws) in Delhi is owned by the low-income group which now has to borne the cost of changing their system to CNG and thus became an unfortunate victim of this measure. The implementation also saw flaws in its infrastructure. Huge lines at the CNG stations were seen due to limited number of CNG stations. They were disproportionately located in the city which caused the busses and autos to travel long distances for fueling. Apart from this weak infrastructure, the facilities were also not provided outside Delhi. According to (Urvashi Narain, 2007), the fuel switching of busses from diesel to CNG helped to reduce PM10, CO, and SO2 but the same is not true for auto rickshaws, which converted from petrol to CNG. This could be due to poor technology. Unless a good fuel is combined with a supporting technology, there is no assurance that its usage would reduce emissions.

Pickens and Mehrotra 22

Figure 6. Maintenance costs, key categories, per kilometer (Christian Krellinga, 2016)

Between 2002-2007, Delhi observed a reduction in PM10 average annual levels and CNG was considered successful. It also helped in reducing the annual premature deaths per the World Bank. But a drastic increase of automobiles by 75% during the period of 2002 to 2012 gave enormous pollution loads to the city. This period also recorded an increase in nitrogen dioxide levels by 30% (EPCA, 2014). All this rendered CNG policy quite unsuccessful because it only exhibited positive impacts except for the initial few years. Nevertheless, the CNG program has been referred as the first-generation reform in the city.

Banning Diesel Subsidies The recorded sheer increase of cars and specially dieselized vehicles, all private, nearly negated the gains made by the CNG program. Indian fiscal policies were made in order to favor agriculturists, goods transporters, and other public transit systems in many cities of India which led to the promotion of dieselization of private vehicles too to reap the benefits of its subsidized prices. As mentioned earlier, diesel is easily adulterated which stimulated more corruption in

Pickens and Mehrotra 23 this fuel industry. This also led to a decrease in bus ridership effecting the CNG busses to run in loss. Since 1999, EPA made continuous efforts by notifying Supreme Court of the effects of diesel combustion on environment and health. It contended that “the registration of new diesel driven private passenger vehicles should be banned, as this will cause the expansion of the pollution problem by creating a new use of diesel” (EPCA E. P., 2007). The court directed to enforce BS3 II and III standards for 5 years. Later, with the submission of “Report on Clean Fuels”, the court implemented the CNG program and gradation to BS IV emission standards nationwide by 2015 and planned to move to BS V and VI standards by 2021 (EPCA, 2014).

From 2002-03, CNG rates were lower than diesel by about 46.71%, but between 200409, a surge in the price gap of around 50% was recorded due to an increase in diesel prices, which gave a boost to CNG market. After 2009, CNG costs started rising, which ultimately plunged the CNG-diesel gap to 7.35% in February 2013 (EPCA, 2014). This inflicted considerable loss to the public transport while undermining the clean fuel program. In the meantime, construction of a mass transit system, known as “Metro,” was announced in 2000 to enhance public transportation and decrease dependency on private vehicles. (Urvashi Narain, 2007). The government then expanded Metro’s network in 2007 and took few steps towards building some pedestrian and bike tracks around Commonwealth Games4 venues. Very few initiatives were undertaken in this period while slowing down the progress of the reforms. In

3

BS called Bharat Standards for vehicular emissions are based on the Euro standards (EURO) of vehicular emissions for India. Usually if BS II is applied in metropolitans, rest of the country has to at least follow BS I standard.

4 India hosted the XIX Common Wealth games in 2010 from 3-14th October which is one of the largest Common wealth games till date. A lot of beautification of city happened while strengthening the infrastructure and transit of the city and a major political corruption scam was reported after the games.

Pickens and Mehrotra 24 February of 2014, the government resumed the price gap to 35% to restore the CNG perks over diesel (Roychowdhury, 2010). But till then, the situation was already out of control.

Figure 7. Comparative fuel prices–diesel and CNG.Source: India from 1998–99 to 2009–10 (DTC); India from 2009–10 to 2010– 11; India June–July 2012;USA (Christian Krellinga, 2016)

Figure 8. Prices of Diesel and CNG, 2002-13 (EPCA, 2014)

This diminishing of CNG gains and swelling dieselized vehicle pollution called for urgent actions. The next step taken was to reduce the huge price gap between petrol and diesel.

From 2013 on, India started making slow adjustments to curb fuel subsidies by increasing 40-50 paisa/one US cent per month on fuel (Arjun Chopra, 2016). In 2014, a decline in oil prices in the

Pickens and Mehrotra 25 international market made it easy for the Indian government to end their oil subsidies. On Oct 18, 2014, India was the first country which ended the diesel subsidy making its price determined by the market, which was an easy stroke of painless gain. India, being a strong economy and a favorable market for diesel, found that the effects of this reform were negligible on the demand rate which were almost stable except for few months in 2013 and in the early months of 2014 (Arjun Chopra, 2016).

Figure 9. .Monthly retail disel prices in India (Arjun Chopra, 2016)

The Supreme Court imposed an additional 30% environment compensation charge on the sale of each private diesel car. The revenue generated would supposed to be used in the production of clean diesel to further upgrade to BS V and VI standards and to increase public transport infrastructure (EPCA, 2014). In December 2015, the government banned the registration of new diesel cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) with engines of two liters or more. Later, in August of 2016, it removed the ban by levying 1% environment tax on their purchase (Mahapatra, 2016).

Pickens and Mehrotra 26

Odd-Even Program The program was introduced by the government of Delhi, which was piloted in two phases. Under this program, privately owned cars had to ply on roads depending on the last digit of their registration number. Even numbered cars would ply on even days of the calendar and vice versa for odd days, ranging between 8am to 8pm each day. The Odd-Even Program did not apply to the weekends. It was also a measure taken to reduce the number of vehicles on the roads. The exemptions to this scheme were all taxis/cabs, cars operating on electric power and CNG, cars with only women passengers or with children, public vehicles, medical emergencies, cars running on CNG. Phase I ran from Jan 1-15, 2016 and Phase II from April 15- 30, 2016.

To prepare the public transit infrastructure for increased traffic during the program, the government introduced 1380 low floor buses, DTC 500 mini buses, and 1000 other buses; increased the number of metro trains and coaches in each of them adding to 365 trips every day.

To check violators, 2000 police check posts were created while many students and people volunteered to generate awareness in the mass (Mrs.V. Sree Pavani, 2016).

This program has been important and successful in a way, as it increased awareness among masses that air pollution is a serious matter which has terrible health impacts; immediate actions would be required for the betterment of the environment and for the future generations.

Various researches ran during the period of the Odd-Even Program. There have been varying conclusions and inferences, but none of them really established whether the program should be continued in the future. There have been problems in monitoring the air quality as the given number of DPCC5 stations present in and around the city are not enough and are not reliable for

5

Delhi Pollution Control authority

Pickens and Mehrotra 27 such a large-scale intervention. Also, it is difficult to compare the air quality before and after the program because the percentage of pollutants in air depends on various factors like season, wind speed, polluting agents in the regional context other than the ones added due to vehicular fuel combustion.

According to (Rahul Goel, 2016), due to large meteorological interference, the benefits of this program were not observed immediately in the ambient measurements. At least 20 monitoring stations would have been required for a consistent analysis. Cars contribute to around 16% of PM 2.5 emissions of the transport sector whereas combined contribution of motorized two wheelers, three wheelers and busses is 20% (Ms. Puja Jawahar, 2016). During this program, the number of busses, three-wheelers and motorized two-wheelers increased while the flow of cars decreased. The multitude of this combined transport emissions in comparison to those of cars is approximated the same. Hence it could be said that the decrease in emissions from cars could have been counterbalanced by the increase in other vehicles (Rahul Goel, 2016).

One of the inferences was that a 7% reduction in the PM2.5 concentrations was observed during winters and this percentage was reduced during summers. Conceptually, the concentration of pollutants in winters for first phase should have been more than that of phase II in summer.

But due to crop burning and other regional polluting influences, the concentration exponentially increased towards the end of the scheme in summer (CSE, 2016). Hence the research result showed it less effective in summer. Also, some people were prepared for second phase by purchasing new cars with alternative license plates or by having installed CNG kits.

Pickens and Mehrotra 28

Figure 10. Graph showig PM2.5 level on all days of odd even I (January 1st-15th, 2016) Source:http://discoveryjournals.com/science/current_issue/v23/n80/A17.pdf

Figure 11. PM 2.5 levels before and during Odd Even II (April 1-30, 2016) Source:http://www.cseindia.org/content/odd-and-even-20-worked-farm-fires-and-forest-fires-played-spoilsport-says-cse

Although there is no concrete judgment about whether this scheme has been a success, it generated a strong public awareness as well as reducing some pollutant levels from air while decongesting roads and increasing average vehicle speed. It is clear to say that regularizing it or frequently using it will only lead to reducing its impacts. According to TERI, New Delhi (Sumit

Pickens and Mehrotra 29 Sharma, 2016) this scheme has limited gains because the public transport still needs improvement, vehicles need upgrading and there is no check on the sales of alternative cars. On the other hand, CSE, New Delhi strongly favored the program and recommended in their analysis report that ‘Delhi Government must be permitted to continue with odd-even vehicle rationing scheme,’ during Phase 1 (NCR, 2016). During Phase 2, they concluded that the scheme was effective for the first week but there was a sudden upsurge in the quantity of P2.5 levels in the air. CSE’s investigation showed that there was a sudden burning of crops in the nearby states of Haryana and Punjab which caused a spike in the air pollution after April 22. Automobile companies took advantage of the situation, which resulted in an industry myth that vehicles are not the main problem. They concluded that this program is still a success and should be continued in the future along with longer period solutions (CSE, 2016). Hence, contradictory opinions came up from different organizations with their own statistics with respect to the program.

Thermal plants shut down In August of 2015, NGT6 and the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change released a directive which called for the shutdown of two thermal power stations in Delhi. The report highlighted the increased PM levels of IIa unit of Badarpur Plant above the standard of 150mgNm3, permissible limit, for some days of the year and all units above permissible limit year-round at Rajghat Thermal Power Plant (Watch, 2015). Acting on this directive, the Delhi government announced their decision dated December 4, 2015, to shut down these two thermal power plants. Anther plant of Dadri was also later proposed to be closed. The reason announced 6

NGT, National Green Tribunal was established in 2010 under the National Green Tribunal Act 2010 for active and speedy disposal of environmental cases. It is a specialized body equipped with the necessary expertise to handle environmental disputes involving multi-disciplinary issues.

Pickens and Mehrotra 30 for this move was that the plants have turned old and inefficient (Verma, 2015). Meanwhile, alternative measures are being sought and planned in terms of gas based plants. Bawana plant, a gas base plant, could be made to run to its full efficiency as the gas prices have lowered. Even the government initiated talks with GAIL, the largest Natural Gas company in India (Verma, 2015). These actions are still in process till date because coal fires sixty-two percent of India’s 298 gigawatts generation capacity and plants being proposed for shutdown account for about 12 percent of the country’s total capacity. Nevertheless, it should be noted that it is not easy to shut these units; Rajghat comes under government control whereas Badarpur and Dadri are under NTPC7 where negotiation and agreement by all parties would be needed for this big move. This became a complicated scenario and so in terms of some concrete measures, the Union Environment Ministry notified strict emission standards for the thermal plants on December 7, 2015 by categorizing them in three categories (Watch, 2015).

1. Installed before December 31, 2003: to have maximum PM standards fixed at 100mg/cubic meter.

2. Installed after 2003 upto December 31, 2016: standards fixed at 50mg/cubic meter 3. Installed after 2016: standards fixed at 30mg/cubic meter Adding to the mentioned guidelines, new standards pertaining to water consumption as well as Sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and mercury emissions were also stated which were never specified in the past. The plants are supposed to meet these new standards within two years.

7

NTPC, National Thermal Power Cooperation Limited is an Indian PSU Public Sector Undertaking, engaged in the business of generation of electricity and allied activities. It is a company incorporated under the Companies Act 1956 and a "Government Company" within the meaning of the act.

Pickens and Mehrotra 31 It’s ironic that India has made claims at the Paris Climate Change Conference 2012 to double its coal production by 2020 in order to grow its economy because it’s the cheapest energy to fuel speedy industrialization when the world is looking forward clean energy solutions (Krishna N. Das, 2015).

Figure 12. Coal and gas based power plants with their capacities in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi Source: http://www.urbanemissions.info/emissions-delhi-power-plants/

Other measures taken which are less cited: Delhi government imposed an environment compensation penalty of Rs 50,000 on 38 major projects across the city for causing dust pollution (Kaushika, 2015). Realizing the fact that traffic policemen are the people who are exposed to the traffic pollution all day long, the Supreme Court instructed the government to supply Delhi traffic policemen with proper air purifying masks. NGT also gave strict orders to all authorities of Delhi to implement ban on burning of waste and fine on emission of construction dust which didn’t show effective implementation.

Delhi Government, on November 10, 2016, started mechanized cleaning of roads using vacuum

Pickens and Mehrotra 32 cleaners for 1200km long, 1000 feet wide PWD8 roads to make them dust free. For this purpose, they procured 15-20 vacuum cleaning machines (Hindu, 2016). Delhi Govt. along with Forest Ministry has also increased the compensation for cutting down trees as well as the security deposit of cutting them from 28,000 to 34,500 INR (Service, 2015).

Other measures ordered by Supreme court acting on the EPCA report in 2014 were (CSE, 2014) 

To increase busses plying in Delhi to 10,000-12,000 within a year. The Delhi master plan goals to attain 80% public transport ridership by 2020 as Delhi seemed a fall of ridership from 60 to 40% from year 2000 to 2008.



To submit a timebound framework for constructing dedicated and safe pedestrian and cyclist’s paths created collectively by Delhi government, Transport Department, Public Works Department and Delhi Development Authority. It’s been surveyed that Delhi has the highest number of pedestrian and cyclist users in the country.



To tax the car higher and reduce the tax burden on busses, propose high parking charges to discourage car use and add higher penalties for parking illegally. This was based on the analysis that the fiscal policies related to public transport have been evil. Busses fulfill 40% of public transport in the city but still they are taxed higher than the cars which adds to the cost of bus operations.

V.

Comparison to Beijing

As part of this study, some time was spent thinking of comparing cities. The main city that came up often was Beijing. According to one article, it is noted that here are many things that

8

Public Works Department, Delhi

Pickens and Mehrotra 33 pit these two countries against each other, besides the question of whose capital city has worse air pollution. These issues range from trade gaps to border-perception gaps to GDP growth rate gaps to FDI gaps, all of which could warrant their own independent studies (Kala, Zhong, and Mandhana, 2015). Still, understanding comparing the two capital cities in terms of air pollution and their responses makes for an interesting facet through which a better idea of Delhi’s situation might be understood.

It has been suggested that Delhi is more polluted at times than Beijing. The issue however, is that the cities have different methods of air quality monitoring that can skew the results and cause the comparison to be hard to fairly make. In an article on this, Elizabeth Gogoi, a journalist for the Wall Street Journal, gives the example of a study done by the University of British Columbia that found that, in a 730 consecutive-day study, Delhi had 7 days of what was considered healthy air while Beijing had 58. That being said, Gogoi criticizes the way that the measurements for the study were taken, noting that the readings from Delhi were done near a large and congested roadway while the measurements that were collected from Beijing were done from the U.S. Embassy, which is not so close to the city center and has a green space nearby (Gogoi, 2015). Thus, this makes it obvious that it has, in the past, been hard to collect fair and accurate results.

The same article seems to find that much of the inability to properly compare the cities’ air quality sits with India and the city of Delhi due to their lack of what is considered a good air quality monitoring system. It was found that Beijing’s expansion of monitoring and reporting system had occurred due to public protests about pollution, a response that citizens of Delhi have, according to the article, not taken part in. Still, with new designations by organizations such as WHO, it seems that Delhi is beginning to solve this problem by

Pickens and Mehrotra 34 growing the network of monitoring systems, which should intern increase awareness and accountability (Gogoi, 2015).

Past monitoring issues aside, the most current statistics that are available show that Delhi is still dealing with air pollution that is making the air that citizens breath repeatedly be marked “hazardous,� while Beijing sits lower on the scale. In recent study, Beijing declared a smog alert for reaching 391 micrograms per cubic meter while Delhi had been sitting at 500 micrograms per cubic meters (Gogoi, 2015). This sort of response (and lack of response for Delhi) brings up some interesting points about the way the two different cities’ governments have worked to resolve air quality issues.

VI. Analysis Are these policies working?

The actions taken towards curbing air pollution are mostly stressed on the root issue of vehicles running on the road, their numbers, and the fuel and technology being used. Other issues have gone underweighted and even if any action is planned for them, it has not been implemented reasonably. Even the actions on more emphasized elements have seen a slow implementation resulting in the loss of actual output which could have been otherwise harnessed to its fullest.

Policy of conversion from diesel to CNG was completely driven by a one-man case, a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) filed by M. C. Mehta, an environment activist lawyer in 1980s versus Union of India and Others demanding actions deemed necessary to improve air quality in Delhi since administration was not doing anything about it. Due to his efforts, the Supreme Court

Pickens and Mehrotra 35 created EPCA, Environmental Control Pollution Authority, to coordinate with different agencies and submit recommendations for the actions required to be taken for the upkeep of the environment. Although the court passed its orders in 1998 for the complete gradual conversion of public transport to CNG by 2001, the actual implementation got extended to 2002 while the government gave various reasons for their unsuccessful execution. There have been many arguments as to why CNG was selected as alternative clean fuel when other fuels like ULSD9 (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) exist, which have been proved to be equally good. Also, investment costs for CNG busses was much more than diesel busses, one of the reasons why government hesitated to start this conversion and waited for the court to change its decision. CNG is a gaseous product which helps in increasing the engine life but there have different arguments regarding whether vehicles running on CNG have been designated as having proper emission standards. If the standards are flawed, CNG could not be called a clean fuel. The decision by the Supreme Court was deemed hasty and was rejected by many actors who were involved in this whole transformation process. Their apprehensions were largely concerned to the large scale conversion which was very complex and no research has gone into understanding the sources of pollution, the impacts of CNG conversion and its present and projected demand-supply.

According to (Mehta, 2001), in his proceedings to the Transportation, Land Use, and Environment Workshop Held in Pune, India, he stated: “So, for the first two years there not much action and in the third-year applications were filed to seek more time which were summarily rejected. Then the Blame Game started which made matters worse. No one was willing to take the lead in the matter. There was

9

More information on the different arguments for and against ULSD could be found at http://ccs.in/internship_papers/2002/34.pdf.

Pickens and Mehrotra 36 lack of perception about the issues involved: for example the Transport Ministry took time to notify the emission norms, the testing agencies were unclear about the certification procedures, the DTC was not clear about the safety of the technology, government was not willing to fund an unproven technology since public funds were involved, the experts like Tata Energy Research Institute and Indian Institute of Technology Delhi had views which were directly opposed to those of Anil Aggarwal, a member of the Bhure Lal Committee.�

So this was completely messed up. Leaving aside technology, the issue of road infrastructure and its capability to handle new CNG low-floor busses was also not addressed by the court. Also, no study on the supply and demand of Natural Gas was conducted. The problem also took a political angle. It was difficult to adulterate CNG while diesel had been adulterated with kerosene from a long time, resulting in more air pollutants. Politicians could not earn from this fact, hence their lobby supported diesel. This was criticized by Anil Agrawal, in an article in Indian Express (Mehta, 2001) where he commented the fight was between private and personal interest.

The Odd-Even Program has been the best example to generate public awareness about the issue of air pollution and a demonstration of public participation where citizens greatly showed the enthusiasm to support such an experiment (Chattopadhayay, 2016). It could be said that as the program was piloted in two stages, the effect of program changed from one stage to another. In the first stage, a lot of public participation, some decrease in pollution level as compared to surrounding areas, reduced travel time and traffic congestion was noticed, while use of public transport, especially auto rickshaws and Metro, went up (156.3% and 58.4% respectively as compared to before odd even period). Pooled car share also increased by 387.7%

Pickens and Mehrotra 37 and use of cars decreased by 30% (Nath, 2016). On the other side, although the public transit infrastructure was increased, it was not able to handle the peak traffic. The Metro infrastructure failed to handle such a bursting capacity of travelers and people who were left with no other alternative faced a tough commuting experience. Auto and taxi costs increased, as there were high charges for peak traffic period just to cash the situation. On the other side, response for odd even program from the perspective of auto rickshaw drivers and cab drivers and long distance automobile commuters was positive due to decrease in commuting time and increase in the travel speed. In the second phase, people had already discovered alternatives to deal with it. Hence there were more cars on the road; the second phase failed. It lost its impact as a policy towards reducing air pollution, but decreasing traffic congestion which also was not that significant. This was paired with a dispute in the air quality data that was also observed in the media and reports released. Some data suggested significant decrease of pollutants while the others didn’t. The study from IIT (Indian Institute of Technology) Kanpur showed that 33% of pollution from vehicles was accounted by the two wheelers, 46% by trucks which only ply after 10:30pm and all of them were exempted from the rule (Mrs.V. Sree Pavani, 2016). There was a lot of criticism regarding the exemptions made, mostly relating to the single lady drivers and two wheelers.

India has remained unsuccessful till date to shut down the power plants which were announced earlier. A developing country relies on the production of energy by utilizing cheap resources like coal. India is facing a dilemma regarding whether to completely ban coal production thermal units to restore environmental health and well-being of its residents or to achieve economic prosperity while keeping pace with its reckless growth.

Pickens and Mehrotra 38

How could existing policies be made better and where are their problem areas?

CNG perks are hard for the government to ensure due to fluctuation in market values.

Researching ways to ensure that CNG is preferable is the best option available. One thing that could be noted is that it seems that bans never stay in place for long – causing the problem to continuously concern. The main example of this is the registration of new diesel cars being banned and then being allowed again less than a year later. Thus, the main problem area with this is that the government has not found the path that has the effect that they most want to take yet.

It seems that the main reason for this is that the sale of diesel and diesel operated cars still outweighs (at least from the policy-maker’s perspective) the sickness and death tolls that are accumulating due to the continuation of diesel sale. This is either because policy-makers do not see diesel as being a large enough part of the picture to solely remove it, or because regardless of how much diesel is contributing to air pollution in Delhi, it is still just too profitable as part of Delhi’s economy to do away with it completely and rely on CNG fuel. The other question is that perhaps policy-makers worry that CNG price may be too high and too uncontrollable for it to be affordable to all citizens who need to drive in order to make a living in Delhi. Because of this, they may feel as though doing away with Diesel completely would also cost too much in terms of employment and the stability of jobs within the city. One suggestion to combat this is to think about policies in terms of phasing out diesel, so there is not one large turn over and negative experience with the economy. It seems as though this may be what Delhi is starting to do.

Another good idea would be to provide incentives for trading in automobiles that run on diesel, with perks that could either go towards cheaper use of public transit options or a car that could use CNG or the cost of CNG itself.

Pickens and Mehrotra 39 Regarding Odd-Even Program, one small problem area that can topically be found with this program is that it doesn’t seem that too many people were forced to be off the roads. The biggest sector of what could be considered problem vehicles – taxis and cabs – were not forced off the roads on either day. Taxis are hard to limit though, because this is how taxi drivers make their living. Still, they are the cars that stay on the road, not just making one trip back and forth, but making many, continuously guzzling fuel and driving around and through the city taking people back and forth to where they need to go. It is obvious that policy-makers likely did not want to cost this employment sector, so they let it be. Perhaps a good answer to this would be to create regulations that all taxis must either run on CNG or operate on electric power and to find ways to incentivize the change-over process. Another point to be made is that it will take time (and time with this implemented fully – again harkening back to the problem with lack of implementation for long enough periods of time) to analyze all of the shortcomings and successes of the program. It seems that current conclusions leave Delhi waiting to for more, as policy-makers decide what they really want to do. One question that has not been answered, but that will surely play a large role in the future is the question of economic impact caused by a situation in which people are continuously having to switch from one mode of transportation to another. Could the outcome be that people decide that driving is not worth it and that public transportation would be more reliable on a day by day basis? If so, then this could have a negative impact on fuel sales – and as discussed with CNG policies, that does not seem to be something that Delhi’s policy makers seem to want for their city’s economy.

Regarding thermal plants shutdown, the clearest problem with the policies relating to this is that no action has been taken yet. Along with this it seems that the Indian government is saying two different and conflicting this – one to the world (to double coal production in just a

Pickens and Mehrotra 40 few short years to grow the economy) and one to its citizens (to close thermal plants that run on coal or to meet better standards within two years). Here, a familiar theme is reoccurring. Delhi and India as a whole seek to retain their place at a table with growing economies, but seem to realize that the negative effects of implementing what they announce are just too great to actually act on. Thus, citizens are left wondering why change for their health and safety isn’t being made.

If India wants to maintain a place with other growing to developed economies, it seems that they would stop with coal and move on to clean energy solutions, and find ways for the long term effects on the economy to overall outweigh the short-term losses.

What sort of policies do we see as being better alternatives and how would they achieve something better?

This question has no simple answer. Because of all the many root causes that contribute to Delhi’s air pollution problem just one policy is not going to be the answer. The best answer to this question is has multiple parts. The first is that policies that Delhi’s government comes out with need to finally be put in place, implemented neatly and enforced. They also need to only be replaced or reformed if it is very clear that the costs of keeping the regulation is place is so high that Delhi will effectively not be able to move on as a growing economy should the regulation stay as it is. Still, note that this approach is not the same as removing a policy, but rather changing and refining along the way, so that air pollution continues to be combated. The second answer is that the solution needs to be a piecemeal answer to a piecemeal problem. All of the policies need to have a clear broad objective (to curb air pollution) and be aware of how they can work together with other policies working to deal with other root causes in order to make a multi-faceted approach that combats all components of air pollution. In the end, the answer is

Pickens and Mehrotra 41 that Delhi’s government needs to find a way to stop “dipping its toes” and “take the plunge” before the damage is too much to be reckoned with.

VII.

Conclusion:

Delhi is the only city which is supporting such a large CNG (10,000 busses) driven public transport system. Still there are very few studies to determine if the CNG implementation is a long-term solution. Beyond this there are question regarding what should be the proper emission standards to get effective results. Nevertheless, it is a great inspiration to those developing nations which are motorizing on a faster rate. CNG has been a successful transition even if the initial implementation was painful to people, especially the lower income group. However, it should be noted that the gains achieved from this implementation where lost due to other factors.

Hence a policy alone could not bring a change but it has to work together with different measures for an effective streamlined result. But ultimately it raises the question of whether it is really important to convert to single fuel mode.

The Odd-Even policy showed an optimistic road and people encouragement to achieve pollution free Delhi. This scheme may not sound like a long-term solution because people will always be ready to find a counter-approach to stay at their comfort level, no matter how aware they are of that grave issue. Nevertheless, it shows that people will always welcome such approaches to help situations if implemented in a smart way. The government needs to strengthen their position with core measures for a long-term solution.

The lesson learnt is that the intensity of execution of a measure together with the time taken is crucial to determine the success of that measure. Awareness and right to information for the citizens is important. India is a multi-cultural country with different economic classes and

Pickens and Mehrotra 42 hence the effects of the measures on the socio-spatial pattern of those classes, financial affordability and outreach is an important consideration while planning such a large-scale measure.

In all, implementation has been disregarded and flimsy. This can be seen with several of the policies that were put in place. Furthermore, monitoring in terms of air quality, in terms of checking to make sure that rules are being followed would also be helpful to fighting air pollution.

One reason a more complete understanding is not yet reached is because so much of these policies are still in the “trial-and-error” stage. The problem is that it seems that policy-makers in Delhi wish to find a quick fix that won’t cause any instability in their growing economy. The problem with this approach is that the policies that work best to solve the problem completely are most likely going to have to impact Delhi’s economy in some way, and most likely negatively.

In the end, it seems the real question is most likely going to have to come down to an economic trade-off. At what point is the costs of mass loss of human productivity and the costs of congestion and health care for those impacted going to be worth more than the hit that the economy might face if they just chose the policies that they are aware that they need to put in place to finally curb air pollution to where it is considered safe to breathe? The answer here may be that Delhi’s economy may initially have to take a hit, but to be better than it ever has been in the future. This seems to be a better alternative than letting the problem get to the point where loss of productivity is too high and it is too late to take a hit and be able to more easily bounce back from it.

Pickens and Mehrotra 43

Works Cited

Angre, K. (2014, February). Delhi: 1400 Cars Added to City’s Roads Every Day. Retrieved from NDTV. http://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/delhi-1400-cars-added-to-citys-roads-everyday-550647 Abrams, C. (2015, Nov). How Trash is Adding to Delhi’s Air Pollution Problems. Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal. http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/11/03/how-trashis-adding-to-delhis-air-pollution-problems/ Arjun Chopra, A. K. (2016, May). Impact of gasoline and diesel subsidy reforms: India case study. Retrieved from Energy Insights by Mckinsey & Company: https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/impact-of-gasoline-and-dieselsubsidy-reforms-india-case-study.aspx Agerholm, H., (2016, October). Delhi’s Diwali Fireworks Bring Record Levels of Pollution to City. Retrieved from Independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/delhisdiwali-fireworks-bring-record-levels-pollution-city-shrouded-smog-air-qualitya7388756.html Balakrishnan, K., Ramaswamy, P., Sambandam, S., Thangavel, G., Ghosh, S., Johnson, P., Mukhopadhyay, K., Venugopal, V., Thanasekaraan, V. (2011). Air Pollution from Household Solid Fuel Combustion in India: An Overview of Exposure and Health

Pickens and Mehrotra 44 Related Information to Inform Health Research Priorities. Retrieved from Global Health Action. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3188887/ Bellman, E., (2015, September). Top 10 Avoidable Ways to Die Around the World Show Deadly Development. Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal. http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/09/15/top-10-avoidable-ways-to-die-around-theworld-show-deadly-development/ Chatterjee, P. (2015, December). Why Diesel Cars are Banned and Why Diesel is So Bad For You. Retrieved from The Indian Express. http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/whydiesel-cars-are-banned-and-why-diesel-is-so-bad-for-you/ Department of Environmental Quality. (2016). Haze/Regional Haze. Retrieved from Idaho Department of Environmental Quality. http://www.deq.idaho.gov/air-quality/airpollutants/haze/ Department of Health. (2011, February). Fine Particles (PM 2.5) Questions and Answers.

Retrieved from the New York State Department of Health. http://www.health.ny.gov/environmental/indoors/air/pmq_a.htm Department of Planning. (2000, March). Economic Survey of Delhi 1999-2000: Chapter 12, Transport. Retrieved from the Planning Department of the Government of NCT of Delhi. http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/DoIT_Planning/planning/economic+survey+of+deh li/content/transport Down to Earth. (1999, May). Acid Rain Arriving Soon in India. Retrieved from Down to Earth. http://www.downtoearth.org.in/coverage/acid-rain-arriving-soon-in-india-19766

Pickens and Mehrotra 45

Chattopadhayay, S. (2016, February 2). Delhi’s odd-even plan as a public policy experiment.

Retrieved December 2016, from People Spaces Deliberation, World Bank Blog: http://blogs.worldbank.org/publicsphere/delhi-s-odd-even-plan-public-policy-experiment CSE. (2014, February 10). Supreme Court admits EPCA report on priority measures to control air pollution. Retrieved from Centre For Science and Environment, Delhi: http://cseindia.org/content/supreme-court-admits-epca-report-priority-measures-controlair-pollution CSE. (2016, May 3). Odd-and-even 2.0 worked but farm fires and forest fires played spoilsport, says CSE. Retrieved 10 0, 2016, from Centre For Science and Environment (CSE), New Delhi, India: http://www.cseindia.org/content/odd-and-even-20-worked-farm-fires-andforest-fires-played-spoilsport-says-cse Delhi Population 2016. (2016, 10 16). Retrieved from World Population Review: http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/delhi-population/ EPCA. (2014). Report on Priority meaqsures to reduce air pollution and protect Public Health In the matter of W.P. (C) No.13029 of 1985; M.C. Mehta v/s UOI &. Environment Pollution (Prevention & Control) Authority for the National Capital Region, New Delhi.

Retrieved November 12, 2016, from http://cseindia.org/userfiles/EPCA_report.pdf EPCA, E. P. (2007). Controlling pollution from the growing number of diesel cars in Delhi, In the matter of W.P. (C) No.13029 of 1985; M.C. Mehta v/s UOI & others. CPCB, Ministry of Environement and Forests, Pollution Control Implementation Division - III. Delhi: Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Retrieved November 2, 2016, from

Pickens and Mehrotra 46 http://cpcb.nic.in/divisionsofheadoffice/pci3/EPCA%20report%20no%2032%20Final_Di esel_report%20Mar%202007.pdf Floater, G., Rode, P., Robert, A., Kennedy, C., Hoornweg, D., Slavcheva, R., Godfrey, N. (2014, November). Cities and the New Climate Economy: The Transformative Role of Global Urban Growth. Retrieved from The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. https://files.lsecities.net/files/2014/11/LSE-Cities-2014-The-Transformative-Role-ofGlobal-Urban-Growth-NCE-Paper-01.pdf Goyal P., S. (2003). Present scenario of air quality in Delhi: a case study of CNG implementation. Atmospheric Environment, 37(38), 5423-5431.

Guttikunda, S.K., Jawahar, P., (2014, May). Atmospheric Emissions and Pollution from the Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plants in India. Retrieved from Atmospheric Environment. http://www.indiaairquality.info/wp-content/uploads/docs/2014-08-AE-Emissions-HealthCoal-PPs-India.pdf Gogoi, E. (2015, May). Beijing vs. Delhi: The Politics of Air Pollution. Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal. http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/05/15/beijing-vs-delhi-thepolitics-of-air-pollution/ Greentumble Editorial Team. (2016, March). Environmental Impacts of Air Pollution. Retrieved from Greentumble. http://greentumble.com/environmental-impacts-of-air-pollution/ Global Energy Observatory. (2016, December). Current List of Coal PowerPlants. Retrieved from Global Energy Observatory. http://globalenergyobservatory.org/list.php?db=PowerPlants&type=Coal

Pickens and Mehrotra 47 Hindu, T. (2016, November 7). Delhi roads to be vacuum cleaned. Retrieved from The Hindu: http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/Delhi-roads-to-be-vacuumcleaned/article16438579.ece HT Correspondent. (2015, May). Government Announce New Air Quality Monitoring System for Delhi. Retrieve from Hindustan Times. http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/govtannounces-new-air-quality-monitoring-system-for-delhi/story4vvcBAm24rnYVhQ3xO8XzK.html India, E. S. (2014-15). Chapter 1 Introduction. Retrieved from Delhi Government: http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/bceb238048d8e37fa886f97a2b587979/ESD+201415+-+Ch1.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&lmod=518468999&CACHEID=bceb238048d8e37fa886f97a2b 587979 Jha, S. (2012). Overcoming Political Opposition: Compressed Natural Gas Mandates in Delhi (B). Retrieved November 11, 2016, from Graduate School of Stanford Business: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/case-studies/overcoming-politicalopposition-compressed-natural-gas-mandates-delh-1 Kakkar, R., (2014, March). Acid Rain and Its Harmful Effects. Retrieved from Important India. http://www.importantindia.com/11661/acid-rain-and-its-harmful-effects/ Kala , A.V., Zhong, R., & Mandhana, N., (2015, May). 5 Gaps that Define the India-China Relationship, in Charts and Maps. Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal. http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/05/13/5-gaps-that-define-the-india-china-relationshipin-charts-and-maps/

Pickens and Mehrotra 48 Karjal. (2016, July). Total Vehicle Registered: Vehicles Registered Up to 31-July-2016.

Retrieved from Transport Department, Govt. of NCT of Delhi. http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/doit_transport/Transport/Home/Vehicle+Registratio n/Total+Vehicle+Registered Kaur, S., Singh, I. (2012, July). Accelerated Phosphate & Nitrate Level: Factors to Blame for ‘Eutrophication’ in Yamuna River, Delhi, India. Retrieved from the International Journal of Plant, Animal and Environmental Sciences. http://www.ijpaes.com/admin/php/uploads/219_pdf.pdf Kelkar, K., (2014, February). How Crop Burning Affects Delhi’s Air. Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal. http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2014/02/15/how-crop-burning-affectsdelhis-air-pollution/ Kokaz, K., Harshadeep, N.R., Rogers, P., & Srinivasan, S., (2000). A Simulation Analysis of Transportation Policies on Health and Environment in Delhi, India. Retrieved from Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. http://www.seas.harvard.edu/TransportAsia/Presentations/cupum-Harvard-Delhi.pdf Kaushika, P. (2015, December 8). Dust pollution: AAP govt orders 38 major projects to pay green compensation. Retrieved from The Indian Express: http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/dust-pollution-aap-govt-orders-38-majorprojects-to-pay-green-compensation/ Krishna N. Das, T. W. (2015, December 14). India says Paris climate deal won't affect plans to double coal output. Retrieved from Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/usclimatechange-summit-india-coal-idUSKBN0TX15F20151214

Pickens and Mehrotra 49 Lvovsky, K., (1998, July). Economic Costs of Air Pollution with Special Reference to India.

Retrieved from South Asia Environment Unit World Bank. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/UrbanAir/Economic+co sts+of+air+pollution+KL.pdf Mahapatra, D. (2016, August 12). Supreme Court allows sale of diesel vehicles of 2,000cc and above in Delhi, NCR. Retrieved from Times Of India: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/miscellaneous/Supreme-Court-allows-sale-ofdiesel-vehicles-of-2000cc-and-above-in-Delhi-NCR/articleshow/53668184.cms Mehta, R. (2001). History Politics and Technology of CNG- Diesel Bus Switch in Delhi.

Proceedings of the Transportation, Land Use, and Environment Workshop (p. 151).

Pune, India: Central Institute of Road Transport, Pune, India. Retrieved from http://www.seas.harvard.edu/TransportAsia/workshop_papers/Mehta.pdf Mrs.V. Sree Pavani, D. A. (2016, April 1). POLLUTION CONTROL THROUGH ODD – EVEN RULE: A CASE STUDY OF DELHI. Indian Journal Of Science, 23(80), 403411. Retrieved December 1, 2016, from https://discoveryjournals.com/science/current_issue/v23/n80/A17.pdf Ms. Puja Jawahar, D. S. (2016). Retrieved from Delhi air Quality: http://www.delhiairquality.info/ Merriam-Webster. (2016). Eutrophication Definition. Retrieved from Merriam-Webster Dictionary Online. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/eutrophication Miller B., (2016, June). Air Quality Sensors Track Pollution. Retrieved from Phys.org. http://phys.org/news/2016-06-air-quality-sensors-track-pollution.html#jCp

Pickens and Mehrotra 50 Mills, C., (2016, October). Diwali Fireworks Smother New Delhi, Cause Uproar. Retrieved from U.S. News and World Report. http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-1031/diwali-fireworks-cause-problems-in-new-dehli Nath, D. (2016, January 18). Two wheels ditched for Metro. Retrieved November 16, 2016, from The Hindu: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/Two-wheels-ditchedfor-Metro/article14004220.ece NCR, E. P. (2016, January 8). Air quality benefits of odd-even vehicle rationing programmein Delhi: An analysis of week 1. Retrieved from Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) India: http://www.cseindia.org/userfiles/Benefits-of-odd-and-even.pdf National Geographic. (2016). Acid Rain: Effects Felt Through the Food Chain. Retrieved from National Geographic. http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/globalwarming/acid-rain-overview/ Press Trust India. (2016, November). Air Pollution to Cripple Delhi-NCR Economy: Assocham.

Retrieved from Live Mint. http://www.livemint.com/Politics/4I17ArscdNVLiPGj33q5ON/Air-pollution-to-crippleDelhiNCR-economy-Assocham.html Press Trust of India. (2013, March). 74.53 Lakh Vehicles in Delhi: Survey. Retrieved from Business Standard. http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/74-53-lakhvehicles-in-delhi-survey-113031900581_1.html Rahul Goel, G. T. (2016). Evaluation of the Effects of the 15-day Odd-Even Scheme in Delhi: A Preliminary Report . Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Transportaion Research and Injury Prevention Programme. Delhi: IIT Delhi. Retrieved 09 12, 2016, from

Pickens and Mehrotra 51 Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Programme (TRIPP): http://tripp.iitd.ernet.in/IITodd_even_prelim_rpt_Apr16.pdf Roychowdhury, A. (2010). CNG programme in India: The future challenges Fact Sheet Series.

Retrieved October 12, 2016, from Centre For Science and Environment: http://www.cseindia.org/content/cng-programme-india-future-challenges Service, E. N. (2015, June 20). Delhi govt hikes security deposit for cutting trees. Retrieved from The Indian Express: http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/for-every-tree-you-cutdelhi-govt-hikes-security-deposit-for-cutting-trees/ Scientific American. (2016). Does Population Growth Impact Climate Change? Retrieved from Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-growthclimate-change/# Sharma, M. (2016, April). Garbage Burning Undermines AAP Govt’s Focus on Reducing Air Pollution. Retrieved from Hindustan Times. http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/garbage-burning-undermines-aap-govt-s-focus-onreducing-air-pollution/story-UzamqjCzfR2lTmL0dDFQTM.html Sumit Sharma, J. M. (2016). Analysis of Odd-Even scheme phase-II. Retrieved 10 10, 2016, from The Energy and Resources Institute: http://www.teriin.org/files/TERI-Analysis-Oddeven.pdf Urvashi Narain, A. K. (2007, February). The Impact of Delhi’s CNG Program on Air Quality.

54. Washington, DC: Resources for the future. Retrieved from http://www.rff.org/files/sharepoint/WorkImages/Download/RFF-DP-07-06.pdf

Pickens and Mehrotra 52 UNESCO. (2016). Red Fort Complex. Retrieved from United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and World Heritage Convention. http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/231 Verma, R. (2015, Decemebr 5). Three power plants to be shut, but govt says backup ready.

Retrieved from Times of India: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Threepower-plants-to-be-shut-but-govt-says-backup-ready/articleshow/50049000.cms Veron, R. (2006). Remaking urban environments: the political ecology of air pollution in Delhi.

Environment and Planning A, 38, 2093-2109.

Wakdikar, S. (2002, January 10). Compressed natural gas: A problem or a Solution? CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 82. Retrieved 2016, from http://www.iisc.ernet.in/currsci/jan102002/25.pdf Watch, T. (2015, December). Green Bid: Govt isuues strict norms for Thermal Plants. stoppwatch, 2(12), pp. 1-3. Retrieved from https://www.thermalwatch.org.in/sites/default/files/Resource/StoppWatch_December_20 15.pdf What’s Your Impact. (2016). What are greenhouse gases? Retrieved from What’s Your Impact. http://whatsyourimpact.org/greenhouse-gases