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Peace in the Middle East: Prospects & Roadblocks M arch 25, 2017

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PM Ehud Barak & Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei

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Since enlisting in the Israeli Army at age 17, Ehud Barak has become one of his country’s most admired and recognizable political and military leaders. He directed a commando unit in the Six-Day War in 1967, commanded a tank battalion on the Sinai front during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and was a key architect in the celebrated rescue of Air France passengers from terrorists at the Entebbe Airport in Uganda in 1976. Known for his bravery and coolness under fire, he remains the most decorated soldier in Israel’s history. However, it is Barak’s global statesmanship and commitment to peace in the Middle East that lie at the heart of his remarkable career. After serving as Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) where he helped negotiate the 1994 peace treaty with Jordan, Barak became Minister of the Interior under Prime Minister (PM) Yitzhak Rabin, and then Minister of Foreign Affairs for PM Shimon Peres in 1995. He was then elected Israel’s 10th Prime Minister in a landslide victory in 1999. As Prime Minister, Barak ordered the withdrawal of the IDF from South Lebanon, ending Israel’s 18-year occupation there. He led far-reaching efforts to negotiate peace agreements, first with Syria and later with the Palestinian Authority, working closely with the Clinton administration. According to The Wall Street Journal, “his peace proposals at the 2000 Camp David negotiations with the Palestinians remain a blueprint for ending the conflict.” Barak, while Prime Minister, also led Israel out of a prolonged recession and into an economic boom with 5.9% annual growth, record foreign investments, near zero inflation, and a deficit cut in half.

In 2007, Barak accepted an appointment as Israel’s Minister of Defense; in this role, he continued to advocate a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians until stepping down in 2013. In 2012, the U.S. Department of Defense presented Barak with the Distinguished Public Service Award, its highest award for public service. Then U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta praised Barak, saying, “Through his distinguished military career, and the political career that followed, few people have such farreaching and positive impacts on Israeli security and prosperity, and I have to say, on the U.S.Israeli relationship.” The same year, Foreign Policy magazine named him 13th among its 100 Global Thinkers. Although his academic career was repeatedly disrupted by calls to active duty, Barak earned an undergraduate degree in Physics and Mathematics from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and a Masters in Economic Engineering Systems from Stanford University. In addition to his scientific and military interests, he is an accomplished pianist and linguist.

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Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei is a Nobel Peace Prizewinning leader known for his pro-democratic views and diplomatic support of nuclear disarmament. A tireless advocate for peace, he spent 12 years directing the international agency that seeks to protect the world’s citizens from the most powerful weapons of mass destruction ever created. Born in Cairo, Egypt, ElBaradei earned a Bachelor’s degree in Law in 1962 at the University of Cairo, and a Doctorate in International Law at New York University School of Law in 1974. He began his career in the Egyptian Diplomatic Service in 1964, serving in the Permanent Missions of Egypt to the United Nations in New York and Geneva. During his career, he has been involved in the policy and legal activities of many organizations, including the U.N. General Assembly, the U.N. Security Council, the Conference on Disarmament, the International Labor Organization, the World Health Organization, and the Commission on Human Rights. In 1974, ElBaradei was appointed Special Assistant to the Foreign Minister of Egypt, and served on the Egyptian negotiating team at the historic Camp David peace talks leading to Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel in 1978. After joining the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1984, ElBaradei held a number of senior positions there before being appointed Director General in 1997. In October 2005, Dr. ElBaradei and the IAEA were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, citing, “their efforts to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is used in the safest possible way.” A steadfast proponent of peace and

democracy in the Middle East, Dr. ElBaradei played a leadership role in the Arab Spring of 2011 and assumed the role of Interim Vice President of Egypt in 2013, following the removal of President Mohamed Morsi, yet resigned shortly thereafter in protest over the use of lethal force against supporters of the deposed president. Dr. ElBaradei is an Adjunct Professor of Law at Cairo University School of Law and has been a board member of numerous organizations including the Global Citizenship Commission, the International Crisis Group, the Global Economic Symposium, the International Luxemburg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, and the Global Leadership Foundation. He has received numerous other awards for his work, including the Franklin D. Roosevelt Four Freedoms Medal; the Muslim Public Affairs Council Human Security Award; and the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development. Dr. ElBaradei and his wife Aida maintain homes in both Cairo and Vienna.

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Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei

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Robin Wright is a journalist, author, and foreign policy analyst who has reported from more than 140 countries for The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, CBS News, The Wall Street Journal, TIME, The New Yorker, and others. Her latest book, Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World, won the 2012 Overseas Press Club Award for the year’s best book on international affairs. Her other books include The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and US Policy, Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East, and The Islamists Are Coming: Who They Really Are. She has received the U.N. Correspondents Association Gold Medal for coverage of foreign

affairs, the Overseas Press Club Award for “best reporting in any medium requiring exceptional courage and initiative,” and the National Press Club Award for best diplomatic reporting. She has also been the recipient of a MacArthur Foundation grant. She is currently a joint fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She has also been a fellow at the Brookings Institution and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is a frequent television commentator on major network news and public affairs programs.

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The Saltanah Ensemble, a group of musicians based in the Washington, D.C. area, has as its goal the preservation and presentation of traditional and popular Middle Eastern music. Instruments being played tonight include (clockwise from top left): Qanun - a type of zither with 76 strings in courses of three, plucked with two rectangular picks attached to the index f ingers with metal rings. Riqq - An Arabic tambourine. Ney - A bamboo flute. Dumbek - a goblet-shaped hand drum, also know as the Egyptian tabla or darbuka. The Saltanah Ensemble performs at concerts, workshops, and festivals throughout the mid-Atlantic region. For more information, visit www.saltanah.com

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By Nick Danforth In Washington’s ongoing debate about the cause of the continuing chaos in the Middle East, President George W. Bush stands condemned for the 2003 intervention that started Iraq’s civil war, while President Obama stands condemned for the nonintervention that worsened Syria’s. In Libya, meanwhile, Washington’s partial intervention also failed to bring peace, while too few Americans are even aware of their country’s role in the conflict afflicting Yemen. Without trying to defend or absolve U.S. policy, then, it is worth stepping back to ask what shared historical experiences might have left these four countries—Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen— particularly at risk of violent collapse. The following maps help highlight how, at various points over the past century, historical circumstances conspired, in an often self-reinforcing way, to bolster the stability of some states in the region while undermining that of others.

1. Century-old states are more stable today Countries whose political or geographic precedents stretch back over a century are more stable today. Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and, to some extent, the ruling dynasties of what are now Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, all, in one form or another, trace their current political structures to the late 19th century, before European colonialism took root in the region. Consequently, they were more likely to have the resources to maintain some independence in the face of European power, or at least negotiate a less disruptive form of colonial rule. (Continued)

four maps

Four m aps that help explain the chaos of the Middle East

four maps (cont â&#x20AC;&#x2122;d)

Turkey, most vividly, escaped colonization at the beginning of the 20th century because the already extant Ottoman army defeated a number of would-be colonizers: first during World War I and then after the empireâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s dissolution in Turkeyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s subsequent war for independence. Iran, meanwhile, was divided into informal spheres of influence by the British and Russians in the late 19th century but avoided formal colonization and initially kept the Qajar dynasty in power. And Egypt, a British protectorate for several decades, became the first country in the region to achieve nominal independence in 1922, under the same dynasty that had established the Egyptian state more than a century earlier. As a result, both Iran and Egypt had ruling institutions predating European colonial influence that subsequently remained in place. In both countries, local politics were, to a greater degree than elsewhere, allowed to continue, subject to external constraint and correction. Meanwhile, the far smaller dynasties of the Persian Gulf became protectorates of the British Empire on mutually beneficial terms, creating symbiotic relationships in which the British provided military support and trade opportunities that left these regimes stronger and wealthier than they were before.

2. Colonial rule led to fragile states In contrast to these preexisting polities, countries such as Syria, Iraq, Libya and Lebanon came into being in the early 20th century complete with new borders and hastily formed governments set up by their colonial rulers. From the outset, these puppet governments lacked the legitimacy or popular support of those indigenous rulers, who, however unwillingly, had come under the influence of colonial powers. Unsurprisingly, all of these countries (besides Lebanon) soon experienced widespread and violent anti-colonial rebellions.

3. Instability and regime change Observers have often noted that the Middle East’s long-standing monarchies appear significantly more stable than its republics. But this reading mistakes cause for effect. Libya and Iraq, along with Iran, Egypt, and Turkey, were all originally monarchies as well, at least until their monarchs were overthrown by revolutions. Perhaps, then, it’s more accurate to say that monarchies only survived (Continued) in countries that were stable.

four maps (cont ’d)

The consequences of these seminal conflicts persisted through the century. After occupying Libya in 1911, Italy suppressed resistance from local guerrilla fighters only after a decades-long military campaign that employed starvation, mass deportation and concentration camps. Britain, meanwhile, put down Iraq’s 1920 revolt with the help of extensive air power, then dropped poison gas on Kurdish tribes that continued resisting. And in Syria, a massive revolt in 1925 ended with French artillery shelling Damascus. In each case, colonial powers also triumphed by recruiting local allies along ethnic or tribal lines to fight on their side against the rebels. In Syria, the French drew support from Christian and Alawite communities. In Iraq, key Sunni tribes cooperated with the British against rebels in return for political and financial rewards. As a result, these revolts deepened social divisions within these countries and stripped governing institutions of their legitimacy at the moment of inception. The consequences of these unstable foundations were often fully felt only in the aftermath of independence. After the Iraqi revolt, the British installed King Faisal I to rule the country on their behalf, hoping he would mitigate nationalist anger toward colonial rule. Faisal’s family maintained its throne with British support until 1958, when Faisal’s grandson was overthrown and executed in a military coup.

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4. The Cold War One of the most striking historical correlations is between countries enduring civil war today and those that, to varying degrees, leaned toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War. But what is the relationship between Iraq, Syria, Libya and at least part of Yemen’s pro-Soviet geopolitics and their current chaos? First, the political challenges some states faced may have left them predisposed to both instability and siding with the Soviets. To the extent that at the outset of the Cold War countries—both their regimes and their populations—were content with and, therefore, invested in maintaining the status quo, they were more likely to side with the West. Thus, monarchies across the region that benefited from their relationship with the British stayed with the West, while Turkey, (Continued)

four maps (cont ’d)

Not surprisingly, countries where pro-Western monarchies survived maintained their proWestern political orientation. While American officials often had deep reservations about British colonialism, with the start of the Cold War many concluded that maintaining British influence was preferable to the risk of Soviet infiltration. As a result, pro-British rulers like the shah of Iran, Faisal II in Iraq and King Farouk in Egypt became crucial elements of Anglo-American efforts to contain Soviet influence in the region. When these regimes fell—Iran’s in 1979, Iraq’s in 1958, Egypt’s in 1952—these countries moved away from their alliances with the West. Libya, too, followed a similar pattern when Moammar Gaddafi toppled King Idris, who, despite his impeccable anti-colonial credentials, was tainted by his pro-Western political orientation. In Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, by contrast, pro-Western monarchies survived and kept their countries in the Western orbit throughout the Cold War.

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Syria and Iran that Washington feared would take their countries in a pro-Soviet direction. There is also an ideological dimension to all of this. Washington has long been willing to turn a blind eye toward authoritarian behavior from regimes it has supported in the Middle East. Still, the Baathist regimes in Syria and Iraq, as well as the Gaddafi regime in Libya, displayed a degree of totalitarian ambition and systematic brutality that set them apart from other regimes in the region. Saddam Hussein demonstrated that, as a source of ideological inspiration, Stalinism is not conducive to stability. At the outset of the 20th century, then, neither Iraq, Syria, Libya nor Yemen existed as states or governments in their current form. All four then experienced direct colonial rule between World Wars I and II and subsequently overthrew their governing regimes in the postwar period. Finally, these four countries all ended up, to greater or lesser degrees, on the losing side of the Cold War. But alongside these patterns, readers have almost certainly noticed the equally striking exceptions at every stage along the way. So while it is easy to predict that the violence currently afflicting Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen will leave a legacy of instability moving forward, exploring the continuities of history can also serve as a first step toward escaping from them. Reprinted with permission. Nick Danforth writes about Middle Eastern history and politics. He is a senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Follow on Twitter @NicholasDanfort

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having secured its independence, saw Western support as a way to maintain it against the risk of Soviet expansion. Where these regimes maintained the consent, or at least obedience, of the societies they governed, as in Jordan, the Gulf States, or Turkey, this orientation remained. Conversely, in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Egyptâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; and particularly among groups like the Kurds and Palestinians who lacked countries of their ownâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;widespread popular resentment of the status quo and the regimes that enforced it both increased the likelihood of political instability and the appeal of the Soviet Union as an ally. At the same time, many countries that stayed within the Western camp experienced follow-on benefits that contributed to their stability, while those that tried to leave often suffered as a result. The United States offered economic and technical aid to its allies far in excess of what the Soviet Union could offer, for example. These allies were also integrated into the global economy, often quite successfully, while those that defied the West were cut off and even, in the later case of Iran and Iraq, hobbled by sanctions. Western military support played an important role, as well. The British sent troops to prop up the Jordanian monarchy in 1958, while three decades before Operation Desert Storm, British military intervention helped protect Kuwait from Iraqi invasion in 1961. And, again, there could be violently destabilizing consequences for those that sought to escape the Western orbit. Notably, the United States supported coups against governments in both

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Sponsor 3north Actuarial Consulting Group Batzli Stiles Butler PC Buckingham Greenery, Inc. C.H. Robinson Mr. & Mrs. Langdon T. Christian IV Comcast Cream Studio Evolution Advisers The Fahrenheit Group Heritage Wealth Advisors HHHunt Hunton & Williams LLP Kaufman & Canoles, P.C. McGuireWoods LLP Tissa & Bart Nasta NBC12 PadillaCRT Park Sterling Bank Rainbow Station Randolph-Macon College U.S. Trust/Bank of America Private Wealth Management Union Bank & Trust University of Richmond WestRock Willis Towers Watson Xenith Bank Contributor 2nd Order Solutions Actuarial Benefits & Design CEBCO INC. Cornerstone Realty Advisors DieHappy EY Hoover & Strong, Inc. In Your Ear J.P. Morgan Chase Chris & Dave Klein Mary & Ted Linhart Markel Corporation Mr. & Mrs. David L. Monday Judy & Dave Pahren SMART Resources, Inc. Janine Collins & Tredway Spratley Westham Partners Friend Dr. & Mrs. Ralph L. Anderson B&B Printing Dr. & Mrs. Robert K. Beckler Mr. & Mrs. Roger L. Boevé The Brink’s Company Julie Christopher & Marge Connelly Steven F. Glessner, MD & Virginia Schuster

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Trinity Episcopal School advocates service to one’s community as an important aspect of individual character development and the creation of a strong community. These Trinity students, selected from the School’s Honor Roll, serve as pages for The Richmond Forum this season. Through their service, the students facilitate an exchange of ideas that broadens our understanding of the trends and issues shaping our lives and our community. Drew Acquaye Virginia Allen Dominic Angeli Caroline Bell Caroline Benedetti Hunter Benes Harper Bibb Seanpaul Coffey Ellis Credle Felicity Davies Lexi Flood Alexa Fojtik

Alexandra Geier Grace Gomes Katherine Grotewiel Anna Kelley Mary Kenzakowski Mary Kern Matthew Majikes Tolliver Mance Colin McManus Madison Michalec Julia Morton Connor O’Brien

Gabriel Parker Federico Parmeggiani Davide Parmeggiani Daniel Pelkey Griffin Phillips Elizabeth Rivera Logan Roberts Cameron Schofner Louis Smith Andrew Stevens Elizabeth Valentine Jordan Warner

Collin Winters Noah Yates Elizabeth Kelley, Advisor Maureen Mauck, Advisor Sarah McDermott, Advisor

The Richmond FoRum Welcomes The sTudenTs and FaculTy oF TRiniTy episcopal school in a special pRogRam designed To connecT The classRoom, The communiTy and cuRRenT evenTs. In AcAdemIcs We discover what motivates students and use that knowledge to challenge them In The InTernATIonAl BAccAlAureATe ProgrAm Academics with a world view provide a competitive curriculum in a dynamic environment In The communITy We celebrate the differences that make us individuals and the common ground that makes us a community WITh The FAculTy Building relationships based on mutual respect helps students realize their full potential dIscover your PATh AT TrInITy ePIscoPAl school 3850 Pittaway Drive, Richmond, VA 23235 • (804) 272-5864 www.trinityes.org

We are grateful to Dr. & Mrs. W. Baxter Perkinson, Jr. for their financial support for this educational program.

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Trinity Episcopal School Student Pages

pa st speakers

Thirty-one Seasons of The Richmond Forum 1987 January Ted Koppel February Hodding Carter, Paul Duke and Larry Speakes March Diane Sawyer with Brent Scowcroft April Charles Kuralt 1988 January Oprah Winfrey February Marvin Kalb, Jeane Kirkpatrick and Vladimir Pozner March George Will April Art Buchwald 1989 January Sam Donaldson February Henry Kissinger and John Chancellor March William Buckley and Charles Rangel April Dr. Carl Sagan 1990 January Paul Duke, Howard Fineman and Charles McDowell February Frank Carlucci, Bettina Gregory, George McGovern, William Proxmire and William Rusher March Mike Wallace April Alistair Cooke 1 990–1991 October Chancellor Helmut Schmidt January Adm. William Crowe, Gen. Alexander Haig, Robert McFarlane and Edwin Newman February H. Ross Perot March Art Buchwald and Andy Rooney April James Burke, Dr. Frank Drake and James Lovell 1991–1992 October Barbara Walters January PM Margaret Thatcher February Larry King with Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf March Patricia Cornwell, Dr. Victor McKusick and Dr. Marc Micozzi April Mark Russell 1 992–1993 October Terry Anderson January Hiroki Kato and T. Boone Pickens February Dr. Joyce Brothers March Bill Cosby April Mikhail Gorbachev with Cokie Roberts 1 993–1994 November Lamar Alexander, Marvin Cetron, Sen. Warren Rudman with Chris Wallace January Louis Rukeyser with Frank Cappiello and Michael Holland February President George H. W. Bush March Dr. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross April Bob Newhart 1994–1995 November Gen. Colin Powell January Walter Cronkite February Dave Barry March Tom Clancy April Jack Kemp and George Mitchell

1 995–1996 November PM Brian Mulroney and Ambassador Carla Hills January Neil Armstrong, Capt. Eugene Cernan, Dick Rutan with David Hartman February Calvin Trillin March Charles Kuralt April David Gergen, Pierre Salinger, Sheila Tate, Bob Woodward with Ed Bradley 1996–1997 November Dick Cavett and Carl Reiner January Ray Brady with Paul A. Volcker February Doris Kearns Goodwin and David McCullough March Andrew Lloyd Webber with David Frost April Marcia Clark, Philip K. Howard, Dr. Rodney Smolla, Kym Worthy with Prof. Arthur Miller 1997–1998 November Bill Moyers January Wynton Marsalis February PM Shimon Peres March Mary Tyler Moore April Peter Lynch 1 998–1999 November PM John Major January Robert Bennett and Dr. William Bennett with Tim Russert February Harry S. Dent and Lou Dobbs March Lily Tomlin April Dr. Robert Ballard and Jean-Michel Cousteau

1999–2000 November Julie Andrews January Todd Brewster and Peter Jennings February Ray Brady, Michael Connors and John Krubski March Archbishop Desmond Tutu April James Carville and Newt Gingrich 2000–2001 November Sen. John Glenn January Tom Brokaw February PM Benjamin Netanyahu March Frank McCourt April Dr. William Kelso 2 001–2002 November Hal Holbrook January Rabbi Marc Gellman and Msgr. Thomas Hartman February Dick Clark March Doris Kearns Goodwin and David McCullough April Madeleine K. Albright and James A. Baker III with Gwen Ifill 2 002–2003 November Ken Burns January Rudolph W. Giuliani February PM Benazir Bhutto and Queen Noor with Gwen Ifill March Louis Freeh April Sen. Fred Thompson

2010–2011 November President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf January Laura Bush February Anderson Cooper March Dr. George Church April David Blaine

2 004–2005 November Gen. Tommy Franks January Michael Beschloss and Walter Isaacson February Tim Russert March Fareed Zakaria April Frank Gehry

2011–2012 November Dr. Robert Ballard January Robert Gates February Quincy Jones with Tim Reid March Charles Krauthammer and Robert Reich with John Donvan April Sir Ken Robinson and Rafe Esquith

2005–2006 November Robert Redford January Sherry Lansing February Gen. Colin Powell March Tom Wolfe April Rick Wagoner 2 006–2007 November Burt Rutan January Malcolm Gladwell and Alvin Toffler February B.B. King March Jim Lehrer April Dr. Jared Diamond 2007–2008 November President Vicente Fox January Carly Fiorina February Michael Douglas March Dr. Henry Louis Gates, Jr. April David Brooks 2008–2009 November PM Tony Blair January Reza Aslan and Jon Meacham February Smokey Robinson with Daphne Maxwell Reid March Terry Bradshaw and Howie Long April Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan 2009–2010 November Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson January Greg Mortenson March Steve Forbes April Condoleezza Rice May David Plouffe

2012–2013 November Platon January Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner and Doris Kearns Goodwin with Tim Reid February President Bill Clinton March Capt. Mark Kelly with Gabrielle Giffords April Dr. Jane Goodall 2013–2014 November Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf and Maajid Nawaz with John Donvan January Dan Buettner February President George W. Bush March PM Gordon Brown April Steve Martin and Martin Short 2014–2015 November Diana Nyad January Garry Trudeau March Ben Bernanke April Dr. Daniel Levitin and Rosanne Cash May Gen. Keith Alexander and Robert Mueller with John Donvan 2015-2016 November Michael Sandel January Alan Alda February James Balog March PM Julia Gillard April Russell Wilson and Dr. Henry Louis Gates, Jr. This Season November Nate Parker January Doris Kearns Goodwin and Jon Meacham with Steve Inskeep February Krista Tippett March Ehud Barak and Mohamed ElBaradei with Robin Wright April Ron Howard

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2 003–2004 November Cal Ripken, Jr. January Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel February Candice Bergen March PM Mary Robinson April Thomas L. Friedman

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THE HEART OF THE arts Richmond CenterStage Foundation is now Richmond Performing Arts Alliance. Our name has changed. Our mission remains the same: to provide diverse local and world-class performing arts, transformative arts education experiences for students of all ages and inspirational venues. SUPPORT - NURTURE - THRIVE

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Ron Howard April 22, 2017 Academy Award-winning filmmaker Ron Howard is one of the film and television worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most enduring legends, with nearly sixty years in the entertainment industry as producer, director, writer, and star of some of the seminal works of his generation. At The Richmond Forum, Howard will share stories of his life, career, and the cast of characters that has been a part of each.

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an equal opportunity/affirmative action university

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