1-2 3-4
Population by Age
5-6
Population by Area Population by Area type and net migration
7-8 9 - 10
Migrant Population immigrated Population by Area
11 - 12 13 - 14
Immigrated Population by origin
15 - 16
Population by Employment Population by Education
17 - 18 19 - 20
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
Contents
Population Density in Europe Population Rate of Change
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Norway Total Population: Total Area: Density (Inhabitants per km² land area) : Percentage of Population in urban areas : Uninhabited Areas (% of km² cells) :
5.084 million 385,178 km² 16 79.3% 81%
Scotland Total Population : Total Area : Density (Inhabitants per km² land area) : Percentage of population in urban areas : Uninhabited Area (% of km² cells) :
5.295 million 78,387 km² 65 82% -
Nordic Countries Combined Total Population : Total Area : Density (Inhabitants per km² land area) : Percentage of population in urban areas : Uninhabited Area (% of km² cells) :
26,127 million 78,387 km² 188.4 85.62% 64%
Total Residential Population per km² Not inhabited 1-4 5 - 19 20 - 199 200 - 499 500 - 5000 >5000
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Source: EuroStat
Demographics
However large areas of Norway consist of forests, mountains and uninhabitable or impractical living conditions. Along the western coast deep fjords, surrounded by mountains and glaciers, penetrate deep into the heart of the country.
Population Density in Europe
Norway stretches farther north than any other European country except Russia. The area covered by Norway is roughly the same as that of Great Britain, Italy or Japan.
Fig 1 illustrates Norway’s peripheral location and settlement pattern in comparison with the rest of Europe. The map shows the population density per individual km² in Europe, and indicates that Norway, Sweden, Finland, and particularly Iceland, have very low populations compared to the rest of Europe.
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Fig 2: Population Rate of Change: Nordic Countries excluding Iceland, The Ă…land Islands, Faroe Islands & Greenland.
Norway
1% Sweden
0.5%
Finland Denmark
0%
-0.5% 1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: The World Bank Statistics
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
As of 2013, Norway had a population of 5.084 million, with an annual growth rate of 1.3%. Scotland has an annual growth rate of 0.3%, the UK 0.7% and Sweden 0.6%. This is clearly a significantly large percentage in comparison to many other European countries who are currently going through a period of low birth rate.
Population by Rate of Change
Norway has registered significant population growth in recent years. In 2011, growth reached an all time high, and, according to Statistics Norway we would need to go back as far as 1920 to find a higher percentage growth.
Following WW1, Norway’s growth in population reached 1%, but began to decline in the 1970’s and continued to fall throughout the 1980’s. Since 1995, the population began to rise once again, although this is as much due to net immigration as net births. According to Norway Statistics the population of Norway is expected to exceed 6 million inhabitants by 2031 and 7 million in 2065.
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Fig3: Timeline of the population of Age groups in Norway
Scotland- 2014
Norway - 2014
Source: Statistics Norway
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
Population by Age
The number of adults and elderly will increase sharply over the coming decade. The increase will be particularly sharp among the elderly aged 70 and over. According the Norway Statistics, this age group will double in size over the next 30 years as a consequence of the large cohorts born immediately after WW2 growing old, and increases in remaining life expectancy for older age groups. The age group 70 and older constitutes 11% of the population today, every 5th person in Norway will be 70 years or order in 2060. The most elderly will also make up an increasingly large share of the population. The proportion of 80-90 year olds currently constitutes 2.4 %, but will increase to around 7% in 2060. The proportion who are 90 years or older will triple- from 0.8% today to 2.5% in 2060. In total, individuals aged 80 and older will thus make up almost 1/10 of the population in 2060, compared to 4% today.
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Fig 4: Population Growth by Counties 2014 - 2040
Fig 5.Population growth by Municipalities 2014 - 2040
9 - 15 % 16 - 25% 26 - 31 %
More than 5% decrease No change (-5% to + 5% change) 5-20% increase More than 20% increase
Source: Statistics Norway
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
Population by Area
All 20 Norwegian counties have seen population growth since 2008. Fig 5 shows the relative projected rise in population per county. But according to Norway Statistics many municipalities are still struggling with population decline. In Fig 6 we see that the declining municipalities are primarily found within designated district policy areas which are distant to Norways large regional centres, (Oslo, Kristiansand, Stavanger, Bergen, Trondheim and Tromso). Each of the centres are expected to see significant rise in the near future. Oslo is expected to reach 700 000 inhabitants by 2020, whereas Bergen and Trondheim will reach 300 000 and 200 000 inhabitants in 2024 respectively.
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20
Fig 6: Population Development per 1000 inhabitants in different region types 1966- 2011.
15
10
5
0
1966
1971
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
-5
-10
-15 City Regions Small and medium-sized urban regions Small centres and scarcely populated areas Net Migration as of 2004 Source: Statistics Norway
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
However as oil reserves diminish Norway is expected to have a significant rise in emigration rates of change and decline in immigration rates of change.
Population by area type and net migration
Fig 6 shows a positive development in population across board when we separate city regions, small and medium sized urban regions, small centre regions and sparsely populated areas. At the same time the dotted line indicates that population growth would be significantly lower - in the entire - country if immigration and emigration had offset each other. According to statistics Norway, in recent years net immigration has accounted for 70% of Norway’s population growth.
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Fig 7: The current and projected population by immigration characteristics Number of Persons (Million) 8 7
6 the remaining population 5
4
3 2
Norwegian Born with two immigrant parents population
1
Immigrant population
0 1990
2020
2040
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
2060
2080 2100 Source: Statistics Norway
Demographics
Annual net migration to Norway has been stable at around 40 000- 50 000 individuals over the last couple of years, which is a substantial rise compared to the situation in previous decades.
Migrant Population
Since the close of 1960;s Norway has experienced substantial net immigration, representing some 1% of the population in the 1970’s and early 1980’s. Since the birth rate among ethnic Norwegians has declined, the overall percentage of the population growth caused by immigration has risen significantly, reaching 35- 45%.
As a consequence of the net migration projections, the number of immigrants residing in Norway will increase. This also applies to Norwegian-born children of two immigrant parents. The total number of immigrants will increase from around 630 000 today, to around 1.5 million in 2060, and then stabilize. The number of Norwegian-born children with two immigrant parents will increase from around 126 000 today, to around 400 000 in the early 2040’s, which corresponds to a tripling in less than 30 years, and will continue to rise throughout the projection period.
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Fig 7: The current and projected population by immigration characteristics 500 000 Asia, Africa and Latin America New EC Member Counties from Eastern Europe 400 000 Other Eastern European Countries Other Western Countries 300 000 Nordic Countries
200 000
100 000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
1995
2000 2008 Source: Statistics Norway
Demographics
Immigrants from Asia, Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe outside of the EU comprise the largest group of immigrants in Norway today, and Statistics Norway estimate this group will dominate in the future. However, a larger share of immigrants will have long stays in Norway; in two decades, the majority of immigrants will have lived in Norway for 16 years or more.
Immigrated Population by Area
In 1960’s immigrants arrived in increasing numbers from Southern Europe, Asia, Africa and South America, with most settling in and around Oslo. In 1975 Norway implemented an official ban on immigration that remains in effect today. The ban does not apply to specified refugee groups, asylum seekers, and leewing is also permitted for family reunification purposes.
According to the Norway Statistics projections, Norway will become a very multi-cultural country with immigrants comprising around 22% of the total population in 2060, while 8% will be Norwegian-born children of two immigrant parents.
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Fig 8: The background origin of the Norwegian Immigrant population between 1990 - 2006
30 000 Total Family Work Asylum Education Other
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1990
1994
1998
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
2002 2006 Source: Statistics Norway
Either way, the Norwegian government should have a plan in place to accommodate inclusion of immigrants in the work force to contribute to the economy, particularly with the projected rise in the immigrant populous.
Demographics
The high statistics could also be potentially down to legislation similar to the United Kingdom e.g asylum seekers being prohibited from joining the work force, or it could be bias of employers or insufficient training and skill development resources in place.
Immigrated Population by origin
According to Norway Statistics there is high rates of unemployment throughout the immigrant population. Most likely this is an indication of the dwindling available jobs in the oil industry. This could also suggest that Norway has a high level of structural inequality and needs to accommodate the requirements necessary to support inclusion of immigrants in the work force.
Fig 9: Employment % by region of origin and length of stay. (Only persons aged between 15 - 74 that were employed in the 4th quarter of 2006 in Norway). Source: Statistics Norway
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Fig 9. Unemployed according to the labour force survey, registered unemployed with government support, registered unemployed without government support. 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40
Registered Unemployed with government assistance
30
Unemployed (LFS)
20
Registered Unemployed
10 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010
2012
2013
2014
Source: Statistics Norway
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
Population by Employment
Figures from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare service (NAV) state that, on a national basis in spring 2012, 12.% of companies were unsuccessful in recruiting labour and had to hire people with lower or different skills than requested. For about 80% of these businesses, the lack of qualified labour was the reason for the recruitment issues. Figure 10. shows the ratios of persons of working age compared with persons of retirement age (67 and over) in different region types. Fig 11. shows the increase in unemployment rates despite government intervention. These figures will continue to increase as the oil reserves diminish.
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Fig 11. Population % over the age of 16 with higher education in different region types.
40
30
20
10
00 1980
1985
1990
1995
Total Population City Regions (Ex Oslo) Small -medium sized enterprise Oslo Region
2000
2005
2010
Sparsely populated areas Small centre regions Small - medium sized enterprise without DPA
Source: Statistics Norway
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
Demographics
Population The last forty years has seen a significant rise in education. Norway is one of the OECD countries with the highest number of people with higher education, and an increasing number of people are investing in such skills. In 1970, there were approximately 50,000 students at Norwegian Universities and University Colleges, while in Autumn of 2011 there were about 235000 students attending such institutes. As a result of this development, the percentage of the population aged 16 or older with higher education increased from nearly 7% to 28% in 2011. Figure 11. shows that there are considerable differences between the country’s different region types with regard to those with higher education. In 2011, about 37% of the Oslo region had higher education, compared with 17% in the sparsely populated areas.
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Norway’s 6 major regional centres will increase in population whilst some municipal areas distant to the regional centres will decrease in population. The rate of immigration will decrease in the future however the overall population of immigrants will continue to increase. Immigrants are expected to
Demographics
Every 5th person in Norway will be over the age of 70 by 2060.
Summary
Norway’s Population is current increasing dramatically and this rate is forecasted to continue.
comprise 22% of the total population by 2060. There is a poor inclusion of immigrants in the work force. Unemployment rates amongst the total populous is steadily increasing. There are excellent rates of higher education for over 16 year olds however this figure is not consistent outside of Oslo.
the future of Norway fremtiden for Norge
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