1
2
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Volume 3 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS GLOBAL BAROMETER OF HOPE AND DESPAIR: 2011
Celebrating 33 years of The World’s Leading Global Barometer (1977-2010)
Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). This document is not intended for publication or distribution in the United States including all United States territories nor is it directed at entities and individual located therein. For further details see website: www.Gallup-international.com WIN-Gallup International
3
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
1997 UK
2010 Austria 2008 Spain
1968 India
2007 Luxembourg
1980 UK
1983 USA
2005 Serbia
2004 Vietnam
1987 Japan
1995 Korea
1947 UK
1998 Australia
2000 Japan
Gallup International was founded in 1947 at Loxwood, UK. The Global Barometer of Hope was started on completing its 30 years in 1977
WIN-Gallup International
4
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
PRESIDENTS OF WINGALLUP INTERNATIONAL
George Gallup (1947-1984)
Leila Lotti (1993-1999)
Jan Stapel (1984-1990)
Theo Hess (1999-2002)
Helene Riffault (1990-1993)
Tony Cowling (2002-2009)
Jean-Marc Leger (2009-todate)
WIN-Gallup International
5
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT It is my pleasure to present the findings of ‘Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011’. This is one of the largest Global Polls of our industry and also one of the oldest. Our Association has been conducting it every year for the last 33 years. In 2010, the End of Year Survey was conducted in 53 countries across all continents by leading Polling Companies associated with WIN-Gallup International. Over 64,000 adult men and women representing various sections of society were interviewed across the globe. Like each year, the findings are enlightening and a valuable resource for Pollsters, the World leaders in Politics, Social Scientists, Academics and general public. As we welcome the year 2011, the Global Opinion shows that the world is hopeful on the whole, though there are differences across geographic and population groups. This opens new debates on prospects of economic prosperity and depression in the coming year. At WIN-Gallup International we are always interested in striking partnerships with think tanks as well as universities and look forward to such opportunities expanding due to this endeavor. We would welcome any feedback and comments on this Survey.
Jean-Marc Leger, President, WIN-Gallup International/ Leger Marketing, Canada
FOREWORD It is a matter of great pleasure for me and the Research Team at Gallup Pakistan to have assisted WINGallup International Association and its Expert Group on Opinion Research in this endeavour. Our team has had the honour of retrieving the survey findings since the inception of the Global Barometer, and compile Trend Reports for all participating countries. The Trend Reports (Volume 2) are available separately. While launching the Trend Data Reports (1977-2010) we are happy to celebrate 33 years of this global survey. Special effort has been made to widely disseminate the results of this Global Barometer. A Statistical Report (Volume 1) has been released apart from this Volume. We also plan to place the findings on Social Media, such as facebook, blogs, twitter and Pod casts. Your support and participation will be greatly appreciated. In the end I would like to thank all our member countries for their valuable input and efforts without which this would not have been possible at all. Special thanks to Jean-Marc Leger for his continued support and energetic leadership. Also many thanks to the colleagues in WIN-GIA Expert Group on Social and Opinion Research, whose continued involvement has been a source of inspiration.
Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani Chairman Gallup Pakistan, Board Member WIN-Gallup International and Chair Global Opinion Research Team Email: gilani@gallup.com.pk Phone : +92-51-2655630
WIN-Gallup International
6
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
WIN-Gallup International Annual Conference in Vienna, Austria (May 2010). President Jean-Marc Leger (center) Members of the Board, member company Heads in the photo.
WINGallup International Team of END OF YEAR SURVEY: 2010 Gallup Pakistan Research Team for EOY: 2010
Rushna Shahid
Manzer Ehsan
Hammad Irshad
WIN-GIA (Expert Group): Opinion Research Group
Christian Bourque
Adeola Tejumola
Inahiro Suzuki
Celine Bracq
Peter Kenny
Joan Young
WIN-Gallup International
Gael Sliman
Carlos Clavero
Aggrey Maposa
Luciano Miguel
Laure Castelnau
Martin Boon
Helio Gastaldi
Ijaz Gilani (Chairperson of the Group)
7
CONTENTS Overview
7
Findings
9
Regional Classification
10
SUMMARY
11
Section 1 Perception on Economic Prosperity in 2011 across the Globe
16
Section 2 Perception on Employment and Fear of Rising Unemployment in 2011
22
Section 3 Perception on Overall Well-being: 28 Will 2011 be Better than 2010?
Comments Appendix A:
About the Survey/Methodology
Appendix B:
Questionnaire
Appendix C:
Net Hope Score by Per Capita Income
Appendix D
Contact Persons for Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 in countries across the Globe
32
Courtesy: The preparation of this Report and compilation of the trend data (1977-2010) has been done by Gallup Pakistan as a public service to members of WIN-Gallup International 8
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
GLOBAL BAROMETER OF HOPE AND DESPAIR: 2011 The End of Year Survey (EOY) also called as “Global Barometer of Hope and Despair” was initialed by Gallup International Association (GIA) in 1977. The initial survey was carried out by 20 countries and was led by Dr. George Gallup. Since then, the survey has been conducted every year across the globe. The survey explores Public “Hope and Despair” about the coming year. In 2010 over 64,000 men and women's statistically selected in 53 countries from across all countries were asked their perceptions about 2011. This Report is based on this survey carried out in October-December 2010 by leading pollsters associated with WIN-Gallup International. WIN-Gallup International
9
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
This Report is the third in the series of Reports based on this Global Survey. The other two are as follows: Volume 1: Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 (Statistical Report) Volume 2: Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 (Country Trends) The Volume 1 and Volume 2 can be downloaded from Gallup Pakistan website: www.gallup.com.pk
WIN-Gallup International
10
FINDINGS • On the whole Hope outweighs Despair for Economic Prosperity in 2011. But there are disparities across regions of the World. - Mature Economies are in despair whereas the emerging economies of Asia and Latin America and Africa are hopeful. - Those countries with high Incomes are most fearful of economic depression in 2011. - Young are hopeful whereas old are gloomy. • Majority of the world fears unempl0oyment will rise in 2011.
that
- People in Global Flash points are most fearful of unemployment in 2011. • Overall the world thinks that 2011 will be better than 2010. But there are variations across Regions. - The hope score about economic prosperity shapes hopes about overall well being in 2011.
WIN-Gallup International
11
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION The following are the regional classifications used in the “Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011� G7 Countries
BRIC
Western Europe (other than G20
Eastern Europe (other than Russia)
AFRICA
USA
Brazil
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cameroon
United Kingdom
Russian Federation
Austria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ghana
France
India
Finland
Czech Republic
Nigeria
Germany
China
Iceland
Macedonia
Egypt
Italy
Spain
Poland
Canada
Netherlands
Romania
Japan
Switzerland
Serbia
Sweden
Kosovo
Denmark Other G20
Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America
Global Flashpoints
CIS/Former Soviet Union
Argentina
Malaysia
Iraq
Ukraine
Korea
Vietnam
Afghanistan
Latvia
Turkey
Philippines
Pakistan
Lithuania
Australia
Bangladesh
Armenia
Peru
Kazakhstan
Ecuador
Azerbaijan
Colombia
Tajikistan
WIN-Gallup International
12
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
SUMMARY
WIN-Gallup International
13
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN 2011: OPTIMISM IN ASIA AND PESSIMISM IN EUROPE: Findings from the World’s leading Global Barometer Rising Powers of Asia and Latin America are Hopeful scoring 35 % on Net Hope; the G7 are Gloomy, scoring minus (-) 19 % on Net Hope. Global Survey confirms the shift from G7 to New Members of G20 As the new century enters its second decade both economic data and perception data suggest that while wealth is still concentrated in Europe and North America, there is a shift of Power and Prosperity from the West of the 20th Century to the East. These findings have emerged from one of the largest global surveys covering 53 countries from across all continents including all the G7 countries, the four countries of emerging BRIC and another 45 countries from Asia, Africa, Latin America and Australasia. Together a sample of over 64,000 scientifically selected men and women were interviewed by leading pollsters associated with WIN-Gallup International. This is the second global survey which the Group has conducted and released during this month. The other survey pertained to Perceptions of Corruption which the Group conducted on behalf of Transparency International. Continued………..
WIN-Gallup International
14
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
A key question in the global survey asked: Would you say that 2011 will be a year of Economic Prosperity, Economic Difficulty or remain the same. At a global level 30% of the world expects that 2011 will be a year of Prosperity and 28% expect it to be a year of Economic Difficulty, while 42% think the economic situation will remain unchanged.* The hopefuls outscore the pessimists by 2%. That is the net Global Hope Score. But like many other good things in life Hope is also not uniformly spread across the globe. The data show that global hope is highly concentrated among the rising economic powers, the so called BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India and China. The Hope Score for this Group is 35%. In sharp contrast the Hope Score for the Rich countries of the world, known as the G7 (USA, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Italy, and Japan) is in the negative: -19%. Among them, the Pessimists (36%) outscore the Hopefuls (17%) by 19% points. The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2010, an Annual tradition initiated under the Chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977 and conducted every year since then shows that of the 53 countries polled this year 19 can be classified as Hopeful while 34 would be seen as Pessimists. But it is somewhat shocking to know that most of the wealthy nations of the world fall in the Red Group, High on Per Capita Income and Low on Hope for 2011, while the Green Group of Hopefuls is mostly comprised by low per capita income countries. The Greens are, in comparison to the Reds, Low on Per * Included in this are 5% who did not give a specific response
Continued………..
WIN-Gallup International
15
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Capita Income but High on Hope. There is also a third group of countries which are unfortunately low on both Per Capita Income and Hope for 2011. The survey analysis has termed them as the Yellow Group. On the whole, of the 53 polled countries, 15 are in the Green Box, 14 in the Red Box and 20 in the Yellow Box. Fortunately there are a small number of countries that qualify to be classified as the Purple Group. They are High on both Hope Score and per capita income. These are 4 altogether including 3 Scandinavian nations (Sweden, Finland, Denmark) and Switzerland. (SEE MATRIX AHEAD)
WIN-Gallup International
16
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
PROSPECTS FOR EMPLOYMENT: 45% fear Unemployment The survey also asked a question on Fear of unemployment. 45% of global respondents fear that unemployment might rise in their country in 2011. As opposed to this 27% believe it might fall while 23% expect the employment conditions to remain the same as in the current year. The remaining 5% did not give an answer. OVERALL HOPE & DESPAIR: Globally 42% take an Optimistic outlook; 19% are Gloomy Finally in response to an overall question: Would you say 2011 will be better, worse or the same as 2010, a good proportion of the world takes an Optimistic outlook with 42% saying they expect it to be better, while 19% think it will be worse, and 32% believe the situation will remain unchanged. The remaining 5% did not give an answer To see Hope Score for each country relative to its Per Capita Income, please see Appendix C
WIN-Gallup International
17
18
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
1. GLOBAL VIEWS ON ECONOMIC PROSPERITY: HOPE AND DESPAIR FOR 2011 Overall, the world is hopeful about economic prosperity in 2011. At a global level 30% of the world expects that 2011 will be a year of Economic Prosperity and 28% expect it to be a year of Economic Difficulty, while 42% think the economic situation will remain unchanged*. The hopeful outscore the pessimists by 2% that is the net Global Hope Score. But there are disparities between Regions of the World. The data show that global hope is highly concentrated among the rising economic powers, the so called BRICBrazil, Russia, India and China. The Hope Score for this Group is 35%. In sharp contrast the Hope Score for the Rich countries of the world, known as the G7 (USA, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Japan) is in the negative: -19%. Among them, the Pessimists (36% outscore the Hopefuls (17%) by 19 percentage points. The results of this Hope Score across our Regional Classification are shown below:
* Included in this are 5% who did not give a specific response.
WIN-Gallup International
19
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Figure 1
High
Hope Score comparison across global regions
50 35%
40
24%
Global Hope Score
30 20
3
10
2%
6
4
5%
0 -10
1
2
-6%
-20
10 -23%
-32%
-40
Low
9
-9%
-14%
-19%
-30
8
7
5
-50 All
1
BRIC
G7
3
Global Flash Points Africa
2
Other G20
5
4
Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America
7
Western Europe other than G20
Eastern Europe other than Russia
9
For rmer Soviet Union
6
8
10
GLOBAL REGIONS Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
Hope Score: The net balance of those who think 2011 will be a year of Economic Prosperity minus those who think it will be year of Economic difficulty.
WIN-Gallup International
20
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
1.1 HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES: MOST FEARFUL OF ECONOMIC DEPRESSION IN 2011 The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 shows that of the 53 countries polled 19 can be classified as Hopeful while 34 would be seen as Pessimists. But it is somewhat shocking that most of the wealthy nations of the world fall in the Red Group, High on Per Capita Income Low on Hope for 2011, while the Green Group of Hopefuls is mostly comprised by low per Capita Income countries. The Greens are, in comparison to the Reds, Low on Per Capita Income but High on Hope. There is also a third group of countries which are unfortunately low on both per Capita Income and Hope for 2011. The survey analysis has turned them as the Yellow Group. On the whole, of the 53 polled countries, 15 are in the Green Box, 14 in the Red Box and 20 in the Yellow Box. Fortunately there are a small number of countries that qualify to be classified as the Purple Group. They are High on both Hope Score and per Capita Income. There are 4 altogether including 3 Scandinavian nations (Sweden, Finland, Denmark) and Switzerland. (SEE MATRIX AHEAD) in Figure 2:
WIN-Gallup International
21
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Figure 2
GLOBAL MATRIX OF HOPE AND DESPAIR
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
80
60
40
20
0
-20
GLOBAL REGIONS
-40
-60
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Note: Per Capita Income is based on World Bank Estimates for 2009, with only one exception i.e. Switzerland for which data is from 2008.
WIN-Gallup International
22
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
1.2 YOUNG ARE HOPEFUL ABOUT ECONOMIC PROSPERITY IN 2011 WHEREAS OLD ARE GLOOMY The views about economic prosperity vary with the age of respondents globally. On the whole those under 50 years of age are hopeful about economic prosperity whereas those in age group 51 and above are pessimistic about economy in 2011 Figure 3
High
GLOBAL HOPE SCORE ACROSS AGE GROUPS
25 20
Under 30 years, +19%
Global Hope Score
15 10 5
30-50 years, +4%
0 -5
Low
-10 -15
51-65 years, -11%
Over 65 years, -13%
AGE GROUPS Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
WIN-Gallup International
23
24
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
2. MAJORITY FEARS UNEMPLOYMENT WILL INCREASE IN 2011: Global Flashpoints most fearful of unemployment for 2011
The 2010-11 Barometer also records People’s fear that whether the unemployment in their respective countries will increase, decrease or remain the same in 2011. Unfortunately, majority of the world fears the unemployment will increase a lot or to some extent (45%). 23% say it will remain the same where as 27% say it will fall. 5% gave no answer to the question. The fear of unemployment varies across regions as shown below:
WIN-Gallup International
25
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Figure 4
Fear of Unemployment Across Regions
All, 45% G7, 45% BRIC, 38% Ot her G20, 45% Global Flash Point, 64% Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America, 38% West ern Europe (other t han G20), 42% Eastern Europe (ot her than Russia), 49% CIS/Former Soviet Union, 49% Africa, 47% 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011
WIN-Gallup International
26
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
COUNTRIES LEAST FEARFUL THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE IN 2011: Least Fearful Countries
(Countries where less than 30% are fearful of rising unemployment)
Austria, 29%
Sweden, 28%
Germany, 27%
Brazil, 26%
Serbia, 25%
Bosnia and Herzegovina, 24%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011
WIN-Gallup International
27
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
COUNTRIES MODERATELY FEARFUL THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE IN 2011: Moderately Fearful Countries
(Countries where 30-40% are fearful of rising unemployment)
Tajikistan, 40% Iraq, 40% Australia, 40% USA, 39% Latvia, 39% Kosovo, 39% Russian Federation, 38% M alaysia, 38% Lithuania, 38% Colombia, 38% Veitnam, 37% Czech Republic, 37% Canada, 36% Ghana, 35% Denmark, 35% Argentina, 33% Switzerland, 32% Peru, 32% Kazakhstan, 32% Finland, 31% 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011
WIN-Gallup International
28
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
COUNTRIES MOST FEARFUL THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE IN 2011: Most Fearful Countries Countries where more than 40% are fearful of rising unemployment in 2011.
UK, 74% Pakistan, 72% France, 67% Romania, 65% Italy, 61% Bulgaria, 60% Ukraine, 56% India, 56% Philippines, 55% Ecuador, 54% China, 54% Turkey, 51% Cameroon, 51% Bangladesh, 51% Nigeria, 50% Iceland, 50% Spain, 49% Netherlands, 49% Azerbaijan, 48% Poland, 46% M acedonia, 45% Egypt, 45% Korea, 44% Belgium, 44% Afghanistan, 43% Armenia, 42% Japan, 41% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011
WIN-Gallup International
29
30
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
3. PERCEPTIONS ON OVERALL WELLBEING IN 2011: Majority is Hopeful with variations across Regions
The 2010-11 Barometer explores people’s overall view of 2011. When asked “In your opinion will the coming year (2011) be better, worse or same as 2010?” 42% say 2011 will be better, 32% say it will remain the same, 19% think 2011 will be worse than 2010 and 6% gave no response to this question, The percentage of Hopeful people (those who think 2011 will be better) varies across regions as given below: Figure 6
OVERALL HOPE ABOUT 2011 ACROSS REGIONS
70%
63%
50%
58%
56%
60% 42%
40%
36%
32%
33% 27%
24%
30%
18%
20% 10% 0%
Africa
CIS/Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe (other than Russia)
Western Europe (other than G20)
Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America
Global Flash-points
Other G20
BRIC
G7
All
Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
Percent of respondents who say 2011 will be better than 2010
WIN-Gallup International
31
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
3.1 HOPE SCORE ON ECONOMIC PROSPERITY Shapes Overall Hope and Despair About 2011 The 2010-11 Barometer found out that the regions which are pessimistic about economic prosperity in 2011 have low hopes about overall wellbeing in 2011. Whereas the emerging economies which have high hopes about economic prosperity in the coming year score high on overall hope for 2011. The figure bellow shows this relation in a scatter plot:
Low
Net Hope Score
High
Figure 7 Relationship between Hope Score and Optimism about 2011
Low
Optimism about 2011
High
% of respondents who say 2011 will be better overall than 2010 Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.
WIN-Gallup International
32
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
CONCLUSIONS The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 is a unique tool that provides insight into people’s perceptions about the coming year. It explores public Hope and Despair about Economic prosperity, rising unemployment and overall wellbeing in 2011. The findings are interesting with wide variations across the regions of the world. While overall the world is hopeful, this hope is more widespread in the emerging economies in Asia and Latin America. The developed world including G7 countries and Europe are comparatively pessimistic about economic prosperity and overall wellbeing in 2011. WIN-Gallup International
33
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Comments
WIN-Gallup International
34
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
COMMENTS ON ‘Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011’ from Colleagues in Opinion Research and Academics across the Globe “The Global Barometer highlights crisply and visually the emerging trend of the tectonic shift of the world economy from G7 to G20. One can say that once carried out more frequently, more systematically, in more financially self-sustained format and in more consultative spirit, it may start to constitute a flagship of an invisible global parliament in the fledgling stage.”
Professor Takashi Inoguchi, Director, the Asia Barometer Survey Project President, the University of Niigata Prefecture Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo 'Longitudinal studies that chart changing perceptions over time are very rare. This study represents two rare achievements at the same time--it offers longitudinal data across a global range of countries. The team responsible for this study, led by Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, should be commended for their wide-ranging ambition, the commitment over the years, and their success in bringing out this report.'
Professor Matthew J. Nelson Department of Politics School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) University of London
…………More to be added later WIN-Gallup International
35
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Appendix A:
ABOUT THE SURVEY The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 is a Public Opinion Survey that explores the general public’s perceptions and hopes about 2011. This year the Barometer covered 53 countries across all continents. Overall, there were over 64,000 interviews with adult men and women selected in a scientific manner across the globe.
WIN-Gallup International
36
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
SURVEY METHOD UNIVERSE
The Universe is Global population. The survey was carried out in 53 countries. The population of these 53 countries comprise 76% of global population. For the purposes of this survey the standard/conventional approach was followed: each country has been treated as an independent universe. The sample selected to be interviewed in each country are representative of the adult population of the country. In a few countries interviews were limited to the major cities (notably China and India). In such cases the limitation has been indicated in the section below which provides details on country level sample size.
SAMPLING METHODS
Probability sampling methods have been used in all the polled countries. Further details can be provided upon request. In general multi-stage stratified sampling methods have been employed. The error margins are in the range of + 3-5% at 95% confidence level. INTERVIEWING METHODS The Interviewing Methods are specific to each country. Details are provided below in the country level sampling and interviewing details. The Methods can generally be described as Multi-Mode. They include Face to Face, Telephone and Online interviews depending on the country. WIN-Gallup International
37
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
WEIGHTING SCHEME: 1- For Global Averages only that population has been treated as the polled universe where the survey was conducted. This means that if (such as in China and India) only major urban centers were interviewed, only those populations are treated as the relevant population for developing the weights. Details are available at the end of this Report. Further details can be available upon request. The issue of weighting in determining global averages is under deliberation in our team and we will be happy to share our thoughts with the interested scientific and professional community. 2- A number of countries have used weights for their national level data. Details can be available upon request. 3- The country level averages which appear in this Report are weighted averages.
For Details on Methodology for each country, please see ahead:
WIN-Gallup International
38
Country
Contact
Company
Mode
Sampl e Type
Data weigh ted?
Size
Fieldwork Dates
Afghanistan
Assen Blagoev
a.blagoev@gallupbbss.com
ACSOR
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1107
Nov19 – Nov 27
Argentina
Gerardo Tuñón Corti
g.tunon@ibopeinte ligencia.com.ar
IBOPE Inteligencia S.A.
Telephone
Other
Yes
800
Nov10 – Nov19
Armenia
Aram Navasardyan
ama@netsys.am
Armenian Marketing Association
Face to face
Natio nal
No
1067
Oct 29 – Nov 07
Australia
Bianca Mazzaferro
bianca.mazzaferro @yrsource.com
Your Source/ Colmar Brunton
Online
Natio nal
Yes
1000
Nov29 – Dec06
Austria
ingrid lusk
i.lusk@gallup.at
Österreichisches Gallup-Institut
-
-
814
-
Azerbaijan
Ashraf Hajiyev
Ashraf.Hajiyev@si ar.az
SIAR Research and Consulting Group
Face to face
Urban
No
1000
Nov15 – Dec01
Bangladesh
Rahid Ahmed
rahid@orquestbangladesh.com
ORG Quest Research Ltd.
Face to face
Natio nal
No
3000
Nov27 – Dec12
Belgium
Sterckmans William
wsterckmans@ded icated.be
Dedicated Research
Telephone
Natio nal
Yes
1000
Nov 02 – Nov 17
Bosnia And Herzegovina
Aida HadziavdicBegovic
Aida.Hadziavdic@ Mib.Ba
MARECO INDEC BOSNIA
Face to face
Natio nal
No
2500
Nov 18– Nov 30.
Brazil
Laure Castelnau and Hélio Gastaldi
laure.castelnau@ib ope.com.br , helio.gastaldi@ibo pe.com.br
IBOPE Inteligência
Face to face
Natio nal
No
2.002
Nov11 – Nov 16
Bulgaria
Mila Grigorova
m.grigorova@gallu p-bbss.com
BBSS Gallup International
Face-toface
Natio nal
Yes
1009
Oct 28 – Nov 4
Cameroon
Yapti Placide
pyaptie@rmsafrica.com
Research & Marketing Company
Face to face
Two main towns
Yes
517
Nov 20 – Nov 25
Canada
Diane Rousseau
drousseau@leger marketing.com
Leger Marketing
Web
Natio nal
Yes
1517
Oct 25 – Oct 27
China
Zhou Xin
zhouxin@comrc.co m.cn
CRC-Research Center
Online survey (Random interview)
5 major cities in China
Yes
1000
Oct 22 – Dec 03
Colombia
Cristina Querubin
cquerubin@cnccol. com
Centro Nacional de Consultoria
-
-
501
-
Czech Republic
Jan Trojacek
trojacek@mareco.c z
Mareco s.r.o.
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1000
Nov12 – Nov 23
Denmark
Roger Elsted
roger.elsted@dmaresearch.com
DMA/Research
Online
Natio nal
Yes
500
Nov01 – Nov 10
Ecuador
Carlos A. Cordova
carlos.cordova@ce datos.com
CEDATOS
-
-
1000
-
-
-
-
39
*
Country
Contact
Company
Mode
Samp le Type
Data weigh ted?
Size
Fieldwork Dates
Egypt
Laila Guindy
laila.guindy@radarrpr.com
RADA Research & Public Relations
Face to face
Urban
Yes
1000
Nov – Dec 2010
Finland
MrJari Pajunen
jari.pajunen@taloust utkimus.fi
Taloustutkimus Oy
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1028
Oct 15 – Nov 01
France
Céline Bracq
celine.bracq@bva.fr
BVA
Internet
Natio nal
Yes
979
Nov30 – Dec 01
Germany
Johannes Huxoll
johannes.huxoll@tns -emnid.com
TNS Emnid
Telephone
Natio nal
Yes
501
3-Dec
Ghana
Sam Addy
saddy@rmsafrica.com.
RESEARCH & MARKETING SERVICES
Face to face
Natio nal
No
915
Oct 15 – Oct 21
Iceland
Vilborg Helga Hardardottir..
vilborg.hardardottir@ capacent.is
Capacent Gallup
Online
Natio nal
Yes
1208
Nov10 – Nov 19
India
Arundhati Char
arundhati@marspvt. net
MaRS Monitoring and Research Systems
Face to face
Natio nal
No
1002
Nov09 – Nov 16
Iraq
Dr.Ali Abdal Razak
abdalrazak_ali@iiacs s.org
IIACSS
-
-
1000
-
Italy
Colombo Paolo
paolo.colombo@dox a.it
DOXA S.P.A
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1027
Nov13 – Nov 25
Japan
Hisako Kumada
kumada@nrc.co.jp
Nippon Research Center, Ltd.
Selfadministere d
Natio nal
No
1200
Nov 04 – Nov 16
Kazakhstan
Timur Aisautov
info@drg.kz
DAMU Research group
Telephone
Urban
No
500
Dec 01 – Dec 07
Kosovo
Kaltrina Kuci
k.kuci@indexkosova. com
Index Kosova
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
998
First half of November 2010
Latvia
Aigars Freimanis
latfacts@latfacts.lv
Latvian Facts
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1007
Dec 06 – Dec 22
Lithuania
Jolanta Vonseviciute
jolanta@rait.lt
Rait, Ltd.
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1013
Nov 05 – Nov 15
Macedonia
Ivana Todevska
office@brimagallup.com.mk
BRIMA
Face-toface
Natio nal
Yes
1213
Oct 22 – Oct 29
Malaysia
Krishna.Veni /kara Cheong
Chui Teong@tnsglobal.co m, Krishna.Veni@tnsglobal.com
TNS-R1 Malaysia
Face to face
Urban Penin sular Malay sia
Yes
800
Oct 29 – Dec05
Netherlands
Imre van Rooijen
i.van.rooijen@market response.nl
MarketRespons e
Telephone
Natio nal
Yes
1000
Nov 01 – Nov 22
Nigeria
Josiah Kimanzi
jkimanzi@rmsafrica.com
RMS Nigeria
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
5002
27-Oct
Pakistan*
Fatima Idrees
fatima.idrees@gallup com.pk
Gallup Pakistan
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
2703
Oct 24 – Oct 30
Peru
Gustavo Yrala
gyrala@datum.com. pe
Datum Internacional S.A.
Face to face
Natio nal
No
1204
Nov26 – Dec 01
-
Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup Pakistan (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). We disclaim any responsibility for surveys pertaining to Pakistani public opinion except those carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association. For details on Gallup International Association see website: www.gallup-international.com
40
Country
Contact
Company
Mode
Sampl e Type
Data weigh ted?
Size
Fieldwork Dates
Philippines
Lawrence a. Dugan
lawrence.dugan@asi aresearch.com.ph
Asia Research Organization, Inc...
Face to face
Natio nal
No
1000
Oct 18 – Oct 30
Poland
Grzegorz Dąbrowski
grzegorz.dabrowski @mareco.pl
Mareco Polska
Face to face
Urban
Yes
1049
Nov02 – Dec 11
Romania
Delia Bebi
delia.bebi@csop.ro
TNS CSOP
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1109
Nov 23 – Nov 31
Russia
Ivanisheva Natalya…
Ivanisheva.N@romir. ru…
Romir…..
onlineomnibus
Urban
Yes
1000
Oct 25 – Oct 26
Serbia
Jelena Končarević
jelena.koncarevic@t nsmediumgallup.co.r s
TNS Medium Gallup
Face-toface
Natio nal
Yes
1023
Oct 11– Oct 17
South Korea
Hyunjeong Jung
hjujung@gallup.co.kr …
Gallup Korea
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1501
Nov17 – Dec 07
Spain
Luciano Miguel
luciano.miguel@insti tutodym.es
Instituto DYM
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1243
Nov 08 – Nov 29
Sweden
Roger Elsted
roger.elsted@dmaresearch.com
DMA/Research
Online
Natio nal
Yes
500
Dec 01 – Dec 10
Switzerland
Karin Mändli Lerch
Karin.maendlilerch@ hispeed.ch
Isopublic
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1000
17-Nov
Tajikistan
Olimov M.A.
sharq@tajik.net
Research Centre SHARQ
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
1000
Nov08 – Dec 05
Turkey
Arda ÖZKAN , Onur NAR
a.ozkan@barem.co m.tr , o.nar@barem.com.tr
Barem Research
Telephone
Natio nal
Yes
1027
Dec 08 – Dec 13
UK
Sabrina Mohit
Sabrina.Mohit@ICM Research.co.uk
ICM Research…
Telephone
Natio nal
Yes
2011
Nov 10 – Nov 12
Ukraine
Eduard Zolotukhin
zolotukhin@rb.com. ua
Research & Branding Group
Face to face
Natio nal
Yes
2076
Nov22 – Dec 07
USA
Cindy Kaminski
ckaminski@trigus.com
TRIG
online
Natio nal
No
1000
-
Vietnam
Beth Owen
beth@irlhcm.com.vn
Indochina Research Limited
Face-toface
Natio nal
Yes
1000
Oct 20 –Oct 27
WIN-Gallup International
41
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Appendix B: EOY: 2010 Questionnaire Q1. So far as you are concerned, do you think that 2011 will be better, or worse than 2010? 1- Better 2- Same 3- Worse 4- Don’t Know/No Response Q2. Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same? 1- Economic Prosperity 2- Remain the Same 3- Economic Difficulty 4- Don’t Know/No Response Q3. In the next 12 months do you expect the number of unemployed in … (YOUR COUNTRY) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly or fall a lot? 1- Increase a Lot 2- Increase Slightly 3- Remain the Same 4- Fall Slightly 5- Fall a lot 6- Don’t Know/No Response
Continued………..
WIN-Gallup International
42
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
EOY Questionnaire Q4.a Are you now in paid employment - either full time or part time? 1- Full Time 2- Part Time 3- No Q4.b Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there’s a chance you may become unemployed? 1- Present Job is Safe 2- Chance of Unemployment 3- Don’t Know/No Response Q4.c If you became unemployed, do you think you’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly, or do you think it might take longer? 1- New Job Quickly 2- May Take Longer 3- Wouldn’t Look 4- Don’t Know/No Response
Personal Information / Demographics D1. D2. D3. D4. D5. D6. D7.
Sex Age Household income Education: Highest attained Employment Religion Settlement type (Rural/Urban)
WIN-Gallup International
43
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Appendix C: NET HOPE SCORE BY PER CAPITA INCOME (Per Capita Income in US$ at PPP): Figures for 2009 Serial #
Country in alphabetic order
1
Afghanistan
2
Per Capita Income
Net Hope Score
1500
24
Argentina
14120
12
3
Armenia
5420
-3
4
Australia
38210
-7
5
Austria
38550
-1
6
Azerbaijan
9030
2
7
Bangladesh
1580
23
8
Belgium
36520
-1
9
Bosnia
8740
-17
10
Brazil
10260
47
11
Bulgaria
12290
-31
12
Cameroon
2200
-4
13
Canada
37590
-7
14
China
6770
46
15
Colombia
8500
-16
16
Czech Republic
23610
-31
17
Denmark
37720
21
18
Ecuador
8040
-5
19
Egypt
5690
-28
20
Finland
34430
17
21
France
33980
-58
22
Germany
36960
3
23
Ghana
1480
47
24
Iceland
33390
-51
25
India
3260
24 Continued………..
WIN-Gallup International
44
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Serial #
Country in alphabetic order
26
Iraq
3340
17
27
Italy
31330
-35
28
Japan
33280
-21
29
Kazakhstan
10270
22
30
Korea
27310
-6
31
Kosovo*
10000
32
32
Latvia
16510
-37
33
Lithuania
16740
-1
34
Macedonia
10550
-13
35
Malaysia
13530
23
36
Netherlands
40510
-9
37
Nigeria
1980
70
38
Pakistan
2710
-21
39
Peru
8140
29
40
Philippines
3540
15
41
Poland
18440
-14
42
Romania
14460
-46
43
Russian
18390
7
44
Serbia
11420
-45
45
Spain
31630
-35
46
Sweden
38560
24
47
Switzerland
41830
15
48
Tajikistan
1950
5
49
Turkey
13730
-11
50
UK
37360
-44
51
Ukraine
6190
-38
52
USA
46730
-9
53
Vietnam
2850
61
WIN-Gallup International
Per Capita Income
Net Hope Score
45
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Appendix D:
Contact Persons for Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 in countries across the Globe Name/Company/ Country Assen Blagoev ACSOR Afghanistan
Picture
Name/Company/ Country
*
Bianca Mazzaferro Colmar Brunton Australia
Ingrid Lusk Österreichisches Gallup-Institut Austria
Gerardo Tuñón Corti IBOPE Inteligência Argentina Argentina
Ashraf Hajiyev SIAR Media Azerbaijan
Rahid Ahmed ORG Quest Research Ltd. Bangladesh
William Sterckmans Dedicated Research Belgium Aida HadziavdicBegovic Mareco Index Bosnia Bosnia
Picture
*
Zhou Xin CRC-Research China
*
Cristina Querubin Centro Nacional de Consultoria Colombia
*
Jan Trojacek Mareco Praha Czech republic
*
Laure Castelnau & Hélio Gastaldi IBOPE Inteligência Brazil
Roger Elsted DMA / Research A/S Denmark, Sweden Carlos A. Cordova Cedatos Ecuador
*
*
*
*
* To be placed upon receipt
WIN-Gallup International
46
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Name/Company/ Country
Picture
Dr. Sherine Zaklama RadaResearch & Public Relations Co. Egypt
Mila Grigorova BBSS Bulgaria Kosovo
Arnauld Zeufack RMS Cameroon Cameroon
*
Diane Rousseau & Sarah Weill LĂŠger Marketing Canada
Johannes Huxoll TNS Emnid Germany
Eric Hiamey RMS Ghana Ghana
Dr. Ali Abdal Razak IIACSS Iraq
Picture
*
Jari Pajunen Taloustutkimus Oy Finland
CĂŠline Bracq BVA France
*
*
Vilborg Helga Hardardottir Capacent Iceland Iceland
Arundhati Char MaRS- Monitoring and Research Systems Private Limited India
Name/Company/ Country
John Smurthwaite TNS Malaysia Malaysia
Imre van Rooijen Market Response Netherlands
*
Josiah Kimanzi RMS Nigeria Nigeria
*
Fatima Idrees Gallup Pakistan Pakistan
*
Gustavo Yrala DATUM Internacional Peru
*
* To be placed upon receipt
WIN-Gallup International
47
Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011
Name/Company/ Country
Picture
Name/Company/ Country Teresita K. Perez Asia Research Organization Philippines
Paolo Colombo DOXA Italy
Hisako Kumada & Tazuko Hanzawa Nippon Research Center (NRC) Japan
H.J.Jung Gallup Korea Korea
*
Olga Wiatr MARECO Polska Poland
*
*
*
Cindy Kaminski TriG USA
Natalia Ivanisheva ROMIR Russian federation Armenia, Latvia, Lithuania Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Tajikistan
Luciano Miguel Instituto DYM, S.A Spain
*
Marius Bobi &Delia Bebi CSOP Romania
Ivana Todevska Brima Macedonia
Sladjana Brakus & Jelena Hrnjak TNS Medium Gallup Serbia
Picture
Beth Owen Indochina Research Vietnam
*
Pervin Olgun Arda Ă–zkan Barem Research Turkey
Sabrina Mohit ICM Research UK
*
Matthias Kappeler ISOPUBLIC Switzerland
* To be placed upon receipt
WIN-Gallup International
48
Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). This document is not intended for publication or distribution in the United States including all United States territories nor is it directed at entities and individual located therein. For further details see website: www.Gallup-international.com
49