Global Barometer Hope Despair - Parte 3

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Volume 3 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS GLOBAL BAROMETER OF HOPE AND DESPAIR: 2011

Celebrating 33 years of The World’s Leading Global Barometer (1977-2010)

Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). This document is not intended for publication or distribution in the United States including all United States territories nor is it directed at entities and individual located therein. For further details see website: www.Gallup-international.com WIN-Gallup International

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

1997 UK

2010 Austria 2008 Spain

1968 India

2007 Luxembourg

1980 UK

1983 USA

2005 Serbia

2004 Vietnam

1987 Japan

1995 Korea

1947 UK

1998 Australia

2000 Japan

Gallup International was founded in 1947 at Loxwood, UK. The Global Barometer of Hope was started on completing its 30 years in 1977

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

PRESIDENTS OF WIN­GALLUP INTERNATIONAL

George Gallup (1947-1984)

Leila Lotti (1993-1999)

Jan Stapel (1984-1990)

Theo Hess (1999-2002)

Helene Riffault (1990-1993)

Tony Cowling (2002-2009)

Jean-Marc Leger (2009-todate)

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT It is my pleasure to present the findings of ‘Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011’. This is one of the largest Global Polls of our industry and also one of the oldest. Our Association has been conducting it every year for the last 33 years. In 2010, the End of Year Survey was conducted in 53 countries across all continents by leading Polling Companies associated with WIN-Gallup International. Over 64,000 adult men and women representing various sections of society were interviewed across the globe. Like each year, the findings are enlightening and a valuable resource for Pollsters, the World leaders in Politics, Social Scientists, Academics and general public. As we welcome the year 2011, the Global Opinion shows that the world is hopeful on the whole, though there are differences across geographic and population groups. This opens new debates on prospects of economic prosperity and depression in the coming year. At WIN-Gallup International we are always interested in striking partnerships with think tanks as well as universities and look forward to such opportunities expanding due to this endeavor. We would welcome any feedback and comments on this Survey.

Jean-Marc Leger, President, WIN-Gallup International/ Leger Marketing, Canada

FOREWORD It is a matter of great pleasure for me and the Research Team at Gallup Pakistan to have assisted WINGallup International Association and its Expert Group on Opinion Research in this endeavour. Our team has had the honour of retrieving the survey findings since the inception of the Global Barometer, and compile Trend Reports for all participating countries. The Trend Reports (Volume 2) are available separately. While launching the Trend Data Reports (1977-2010) we are happy to celebrate 33 years of this global survey. Special effort has been made to widely disseminate the results of this Global Barometer. A Statistical Report (Volume 1) has been released apart from this Volume. We also plan to place the findings on Social Media, such as facebook, blogs, twitter and Pod casts. Your support and participation will be greatly appreciated. In the end I would like to thank all our member countries for their valuable input and efforts without which this would not have been possible at all. Special thanks to Jean-Marc Leger for his continued support and energetic leadership. Also many thanks to the colleagues in WIN-GIA Expert Group on Social and Opinion Research, whose continued involvement has been a source of inspiration.

Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani Chairman Gallup Pakistan, Board Member WIN-Gallup International and Chair Global Opinion Research Team Email: gilani@gallup.com.pk Phone : +92-51-2655630

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

WIN-Gallup International Annual Conference in Vienna, Austria (May 2010). President Jean-Marc Leger (center) Members of the Board, member company Heads in the photo.

WIN­Gallup International Team of END OF YEAR SURVEY: 2010 Gallup Pakistan Research Team for EOY: 2010

Rushna Shahid

Manzer Ehsan

Hammad Irshad

WIN-GIA (Expert Group): Opinion Research Group

Christian Bourque

Adeola Tejumola

Inahiro Suzuki

Celine Bracq

Peter Kenny

Joan Young

WIN-Gallup International

Gael Sliman

Carlos Clavero

Aggrey Maposa

Luciano Miguel

Laure Castelnau

Martin Boon

Helio Gastaldi

Ijaz Gilani (Chairperson of the Group)

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CONTENTS Overview

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Findings

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Regional Classification

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SUMMARY

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Section 1 Perception on Economic Prosperity in 2011 across the Globe

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Section 2 Perception on Employment and Fear of Rising Unemployment in 2011

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Section 3 Perception on Overall Well-being: 28 Will 2011 be Better than 2010?

Comments Appendix A:

About the Survey/Methodology

Appendix B:

Questionnaire

Appendix C:

Net Hope Score by Per Capita Income

Appendix D

Contact Persons for Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 in countries across the Globe

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Courtesy: The preparation of this Report and compilation of the trend data (1977-2010) has been done by Gallup Pakistan as a public service to members of WIN-Gallup International 8


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

GLOBAL BAROMETER OF HOPE AND DESPAIR: 2011 The End of Year Survey (EOY) also called as “Global Barometer of Hope and Despair” was initialed by Gallup International Association (GIA) in 1977. The initial survey was carried out by 20 countries and was led by Dr. George Gallup. Since then, the survey has been conducted every year across the globe. The survey explores Public “Hope and Despair” about the coming year. In 2010 over 64,000 men and women's statistically selected in 53 countries from across all countries were asked their perceptions about 2011. This Report is based on this survey carried out in October-December 2010 by leading pollsters associated with WIN-Gallup International. WIN-Gallup International

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

This Report is the third in the series of Reports based on this Global Survey. The other two are as follows: Volume 1: Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 (Statistical Report) Volume 2: Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 (Country Trends) The Volume 1 and Volume 2 can be downloaded from Gallup Pakistan website: www.gallup.com.pk

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FINDINGS • On the whole Hope outweighs Despair for Economic Prosperity in 2011. But there are disparities across regions of the World. - Mature Economies are in despair whereas the emerging economies of Asia and Latin America and Africa are hopeful. - Those countries with high Incomes are most fearful of economic depression in 2011. - Young are hopeful whereas old are gloomy. • Majority of the world fears unempl0oyment will rise in 2011.

that

- People in Global Flash points are most fearful of unemployment in 2011. • Overall the world thinks that 2011 will be better than 2010. But there are variations across Regions. - The hope score about economic prosperity shapes hopes about overall well being in 2011.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION The following are the regional classifications used in the “Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011� G7 Countries

BRIC

Western Europe (other than G20

Eastern Europe (other than Russia)

AFRICA

USA

Brazil

Belgium

Bulgaria

Cameroon

United Kingdom

Russian Federation

Austria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Ghana

France

India

Finland

Czech Republic

Nigeria

Germany

China

Iceland

Macedonia

Egypt

Italy

Spain

Poland

Canada

Netherlands

Romania

Japan

Switzerland

Serbia

Sweden

Kosovo

Denmark Other G20

Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America

Global Flashpoints

CIS/Former Soviet Union

Argentina

Malaysia

Iraq

Ukraine

Korea

Vietnam

Afghanistan

Latvia

Turkey

Philippines

Pakistan

Lithuania

Australia

Bangladesh

Armenia

Peru

Kazakhstan

Ecuador

Azerbaijan

Colombia

Tajikistan

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

SUMMARY

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN 2011: OPTIMISM IN ASIA AND PESSIMISM IN EUROPE: Findings from the World’s leading Global Barometer Rising Powers of Asia and Latin America are Hopeful scoring 35 % on Net Hope; the G7 are Gloomy, scoring minus (-) 19 % on Net Hope. Global Survey confirms the shift from G7 to New Members of G20 As the new century enters its second decade both economic data and perception data suggest that while wealth is still concentrated in Europe and North America, there is a shift of Power and Prosperity from the West of the 20th Century to the East. These findings have emerged from one of the largest global surveys covering 53 countries from across all continents including all the G7 countries, the four countries of emerging BRIC and another 45 countries from Asia, Africa, Latin America and Australasia. Together a sample of over 64,000 scientifically selected men and women were interviewed by leading pollsters associated with WIN-Gallup International. This is the second global survey which the Group has conducted and released during this month. The other survey pertained to Perceptions of Corruption which the Group conducted on behalf of Transparency International. Continued………..

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

A key question in the global survey asked: Would you say that 2011 will be a year of Economic Prosperity, Economic Difficulty or remain the same. At a global level 30% of the world expects that 2011 will be a year of Prosperity and 28% expect it to be a year of Economic Difficulty, while 42% think the economic situation will remain unchanged.* The hopefuls outscore the pessimists by 2%. That is the net Global Hope Score. But like many other good things in life Hope is also not uniformly spread across the globe. The data show that global hope is highly concentrated among the rising economic powers, the so called BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India and China. The Hope Score for this Group is 35%. In sharp contrast the Hope Score for the Rich countries of the world, known as the G7 (USA, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Italy, and Japan) is in the negative: -19%. Among them, the Pessimists (36%) outscore the Hopefuls (17%) by 19% points. The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2010, an Annual tradition initiated under the Chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977 and conducted every year since then shows that of the 53 countries polled this year 19 can be classified as Hopeful while 34 would be seen as Pessimists. But it is somewhat shocking to know that most of the wealthy nations of the world fall in the Red Group, High on Per Capita Income and Low on Hope for 2011, while the Green Group of Hopefuls is mostly comprised by low per capita income countries. The Greens are, in comparison to the Reds, Low on Per * Included in this are 5% who did not give a specific response

Continued………..

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Capita Income but High on Hope. There is also a third group of countries which are unfortunately low on both Per Capita Income and Hope for 2011. The survey analysis has termed them as the Yellow Group. On the whole, of the 53 polled countries, 15 are in the Green Box, 14 in the Red Box and 20 in the Yellow Box. Fortunately there are a small number of countries that qualify to be classified as the Purple Group. They are High on both Hope Score and per capita income. These are 4 altogether including 3 Scandinavian nations (Sweden, Finland, Denmark) and Switzerland. (SEE MATRIX AHEAD)

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

PROSPECTS FOR EMPLOYMENT: 45% fear Unemployment The survey also asked a question on Fear of unemployment. 45% of global respondents fear that unemployment might rise in their country in 2011. As opposed to this 27% believe it might fall while 23% expect the employment conditions to remain the same as in the current year. The remaining 5% did not give an answer. OVERALL HOPE & DESPAIR: Globally 42% take an Optimistic outlook; 19% are Gloomy Finally in response to an overall question: Would you say 2011 will be better, worse or the same as 2010, a good proportion of the world takes an Optimistic outlook with 42% saying they expect it to be better, while 19% think it will be worse, and 32% believe the situation will remain unchanged. The remaining 5% did not give an answer To see Hope Score for each country relative to its Per Capita Income, please see Appendix C

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

1. GLOBAL VIEWS ON ECONOMIC PROSPERITY: HOPE AND DESPAIR FOR 2011 Overall, the world is hopeful about economic prosperity in 2011. At a global level 30% of the world expects that 2011 will be a year of Economic Prosperity and 28% expect it to be a year of Economic Difficulty, while 42% think the economic situation will remain unchanged*. The hopeful outscore the pessimists by 2% that is the net Global Hope Score. But there are disparities between Regions of the World. The data show that global hope is highly concentrated among the rising economic powers, the so called BRICBrazil, Russia, India and China. The Hope Score for this Group is 35%. In sharp contrast the Hope Score for the Rich countries of the world, known as the G7 (USA, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Japan) is in the negative: -19%. Among them, the Pessimists (36% outscore the Hopefuls (17%) by 19 percentage points. The results of this Hope Score across our Regional Classification are shown below:

* Included in this are 5% who did not give a specific response.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Figure 1

High

Hope Score comparison across global regions

50 35%

40

24%

Global Hope Score

30 20

3

10

2%

6

4

5%

0 -10

1

2

-6%

-20

10 -23%

-32%

-40

Low

9

-9%

-14%

-19%

-30

8

7

5

-50 All

1

BRIC

G7

3

Global Flash Points Africa

2

Other G20

5

4

Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America

7

Western Europe other than G20

Eastern Europe other than Russia

9

For rmer Soviet Union

6

8

10

GLOBAL REGIONS Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

Hope Score: The net balance of those who think 2011 will be a year of Economic Prosperity minus those who think it will be year of Economic difficulty.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

1.1 HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES: MOST FEARFUL OF ECONOMIC DEPRESSION IN 2011 The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 shows that of the 53 countries polled 19 can be classified as Hopeful while 34 would be seen as Pessimists. But it is somewhat shocking that most of the wealthy nations of the world fall in the Red Group, High on Per Capita Income Low on Hope for 2011, while the Green Group of Hopefuls is mostly comprised by low per Capita Income countries. The Greens are, in comparison to the Reds, Low on Per Capita Income but High on Hope. There is also a third group of countries which are unfortunately low on both per Capita Income and Hope for 2011. The survey analysis has turned them as the Yellow Group. On the whole, of the 53 polled countries, 15 are in the Green Box, 14 in the Red Box and 20 in the Yellow Box. Fortunately there are a small number of countries that qualify to be classified as the Purple Group. They are High on both Hope Score and per Capita Income. There are 4 altogether including 3 Scandinavian nations (Sweden, Finland, Denmark) and Switzerland. (SEE MATRIX AHEAD) in Figure 2:

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Figure 2

GLOBAL MATRIX OF HOPE AND DESPAIR

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

80

60

40

20

0

-20

GLOBAL REGIONS

-40

-60

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Note: Per Capita Income is based on World Bank Estimates for 2009, with only one exception i.e. Switzerland for which data is from 2008.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

1.2 YOUNG ARE HOPEFUL ABOUT ECONOMIC PROSPERITY IN 2011 WHEREAS OLD ARE GLOOMY The views about economic prosperity vary with the age of respondents globally. On the whole those under 50 years of age are hopeful about economic prosperity whereas those in age group 51 and above are pessimistic about economy in 2011 Figure 3

High

GLOBAL HOPE SCORE ACROSS AGE GROUPS

25 20

Under 30 years, +19%

Global Hope Score

15 10 5

30-50 years, +4%

0 -5

Low

-10 -15

51-65 years, -11%

Over 65 years, -13%

AGE GROUPS Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

2. MAJORITY FEARS UNEMPLOYMENT WILL INCREASE IN 2011: Global Flashpoints most fearful of unemployment for 2011

The 2010-11 Barometer also records People’s fear that whether the unemployment in their respective countries will increase, decrease or remain the same in 2011. Unfortunately, majority of the world fears the unemployment will increase a lot or to some extent (45%). 23% say it will remain the same where as 27% say it will fall. 5% gave no answer to the question. The fear of unemployment varies across regions as shown below:

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Figure 4

Fear of Unemployment Across Regions

All, 45% G7, 45% BRIC, 38% Ot her G20, 45% Global Flash Point, 64% Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America, 38% West ern Europe (other t han G20), 42% Eastern Europe (ot her than Russia), 49% CIS/Former Soviet Union, 49% Africa, 47% 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

COUNTRIES LEAST FEARFUL THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE IN 2011: Least Fearful Countries

(Countries where less than 30% are fearful of rising unemployment)

Austria, 29%

Sweden, 28%

Germany, 27%

Brazil, 26%

Serbia, 25%

Bosnia and Herzegovina, 24%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

COUNTRIES MODERATELY FEARFUL THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE IN 2011: Moderately Fearful Countries

(Countries where 30-40% are fearful of rising unemployment)

Tajikistan, 40% Iraq, 40% Australia, 40% USA, 39% Latvia, 39% Kosovo, 39% Russian Federation, 38% M alaysia, 38% Lithuania, 38% Colombia, 38% Veitnam, 37% Czech Republic, 37% Canada, 36% Ghana, 35% Denmark, 35% Argentina, 33% Switzerland, 32% Peru, 32% Kazakhstan, 32% Finland, 31% 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

COUNTRIES MOST FEARFUL THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL RISE IN 2011: Most Fearful Countries Countries where more than 40% are fearful of rising unemployment in 2011.

UK, 74% Pakistan, 72% France, 67% Romania, 65% Italy, 61% Bulgaria, 60% Ukraine, 56% India, 56% Philippines, 55% Ecuador, 54% China, 54% Turkey, 51% Cameroon, 51% Bangladesh, 51% Nigeria, 50% Iceland, 50% Spain, 49% Netherlands, 49% Azerbaijan, 48% Poland, 46% M acedonia, 45% Egypt, 45% Korea, 44% Belgium, 44% Afghanistan, 43% Armenia, 42% Japan, 41% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

Percent of respondents who say that unemployment will increase “A Lot” or “To some Extent” in their respective countries in 2011

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

3. PERCEPTIONS ON OVERALL WELLBEING IN 2011: Majority is Hopeful with variations across Regions

The 2010-11 Barometer explores people’s overall view of 2011. When asked “In your opinion will the coming year (2011) be better, worse or same as 2010?” 42% say 2011 will be better, 32% say it will remain the same, 19% think 2011 will be worse than 2010 and 6% gave no response to this question, The percentage of Hopeful people (those who think 2011 will be better) varies across regions as given below: Figure 6

OVERALL HOPE ABOUT 2011 ACROSS REGIONS

70%

63%

50%

58%

56%

60% 42%

40%

36%

32%

33% 27%

24%

30%

18%

20% 10% 0%

Africa

CIS/Former Soviet Union

Eastern Europe (other than Russia)

Western Europe (other than G20)

Emerging and other Nations in Asia and Latin America

Global Flash-points

Other G20

BRIC

G7

All

Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

Percent of respondents who say 2011 will be better than 2010

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

3.1 HOPE SCORE ON ECONOMIC PROSPERITY Shapes Overall Hope and Despair About 2011 The 2010-11 Barometer found out that the regions which are pessimistic about economic prosperity in 2011 have low hopes about overall wellbeing in 2011. Whereas the emerging economies which have high hopes about economic prosperity in the coming year score high on overall hope for 2011. The figure bellow shows this relation in a scatter plot:

Low

Net Hope Score

High

Figure 7 Relationship between Hope Score and Optimism about 2011

Low

Optimism about 2011

High

% of respondents who say 2011 will be better overall than 2010 Source: WIN-Gallup International Association Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011. Percentages are weighted by population of the participating countries. For details consult Methodology section.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

CONCLUSIONS The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 is a unique tool that provides insight into people’s perceptions about the coming year. It explores public Hope and Despair about Economic prosperity, rising unemployment and overall wellbeing in 2011. The findings are interesting with wide variations across the regions of the world. While overall the world is hopeful, this hope is more widespread in the emerging economies in Asia and Latin America. The developed world including G7 countries and Europe are comparatively pessimistic about economic prosperity and overall wellbeing in 2011. WIN-Gallup International

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Comments

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

COMMENTS ON ‘Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011’ from Colleagues in Opinion Research and Academics across the Globe “The Global Barometer highlights crisply and visually the emerging trend of the tectonic shift of the world economy from G7 to G20. One can say that once carried out more frequently, more systematically, in more financially self-sustained format and in more consultative spirit, it may start to constitute a flagship of an invisible global parliament in the fledgling stage.”

Professor Takashi Inoguchi, Director, the Asia Barometer Survey Project President, the University of Niigata Prefecture Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo 'Longitudinal studies that chart changing perceptions over time are very rare. This study represents two rare achievements at the same time--it offers longitudinal data across a global range of countries. The team responsible for this study, led by Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, should be commended for their wide-ranging ambition, the commitment over the years, and their success in bringing out this report.'

Professor Matthew J. Nelson Department of Politics School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) University of London

…………More to be added later WIN-Gallup International

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Appendix A:

ABOUT THE SURVEY The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 is a Public Opinion Survey that explores the general public’s perceptions and hopes about 2011. This year the Barometer covered 53 countries across all continents. Overall, there were over 64,000 interviews with adult men and women selected in a scientific manner across the globe.

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

SURVEY METHOD UNIVERSE

The Universe is Global population. The survey was carried out in 53 countries. The population of these 53 countries comprise 76% of global population. For the purposes of this survey the standard/conventional approach was followed: each country has been treated as an independent universe. The sample selected to be interviewed in each country are representative of the adult population of the country. In a few countries interviews were limited to the major cities (notably China and India). In such cases the limitation has been indicated in the section below which provides details on country level sample size.

SAMPLING METHODS

Probability sampling methods have been used in all the polled countries. Further details can be provided upon request. In general multi-stage stratified sampling methods have been employed. The error margins are in the range of + 3-5% at 95% confidence level. INTERVIEWING METHODS The Interviewing Methods are specific to each country. Details are provided below in the country level sampling and interviewing details. The Methods can generally be described as Multi-Mode. They include Face to Face, Telephone and Online interviews depending on the country. WIN-Gallup International

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Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

WEIGHTING SCHEME: 1- For Global Averages only that population has been treated as the polled universe where the survey was conducted. This means that if (such as in China and India) only major urban centers were interviewed, only those populations are treated as the relevant population for developing the weights. Details are available at the end of this Report. Further details can be available upon request. The issue of weighting in determining global averages is under deliberation in our team and we will be happy to share our thoughts with the interested scientific and professional community. 2- A number of countries have used weights for their national level data. Details can be available upon request. 3- The country level averages which appear in this Report are weighted averages.

For Details on Methodology for each country, please see ahead:

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Country

Contact

E-mail

Company

Mode

Sampl e Type

Data weigh ted?

Size

Fieldwork Dates

Afghanistan

Assen Blagoev

a.blagoev@gallupbbss.com

ACSOR

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1107

Nov19 – Nov 27

Argentina

Gerardo Tuñón Corti

g.tunon@ibopeinte ligencia.com.ar

IBOPE Inteligencia S.A.

Telephone

Other

Yes

800

Nov10 – Nov19

Armenia

Aram Navasardyan

ama@netsys.am

Armenian Marketing Association

Face to face

Natio nal

No

1067

Oct 29 – Nov 07

Australia

Bianca Mazzaferro

bianca.mazzaferro @yrsource.com

Your Source/ Colmar Brunton

Online

Natio nal

Yes

1000

Nov29 – Dec06

Austria

ingrid lusk

i.lusk@gallup.at

Österreichisches Gallup-Institut

-

-

814

-

Azerbaijan

Ashraf Hajiyev

Ashraf.Hajiyev@si ar.az

SIAR Research and Consulting Group

Face to face

Urban

No

1000

Nov15 – Dec01

Bangladesh

Rahid Ahmed

rahid@orquestbangladesh.com

ORG Quest Research Ltd.

Face to face

Natio nal

No

3000

Nov27 – Dec12

Belgium

Sterckmans William

wsterckmans@ded icated.be

Dedicated Research

Telephone

Natio nal

Yes

1000

Nov 02 – Nov 17

Bosnia And Herzegovina

Aida HadziavdicBegovic

Aida.Hadziavdic@ Mib.Ba

MARECO INDEC BOSNIA

Face to face

Natio nal

No

2500

Nov 18– Nov 30.

Brazil

Laure Castelnau and Hélio Gastaldi

laure.castelnau@ib ope.com.br , helio.gastaldi@ibo pe.com.br

IBOPE Inteligência

Face to face

Natio nal

No

2.002

Nov11 – Nov 16

Bulgaria

Mila Grigorova

m.grigorova@gallu p-bbss.com

BBSS Gallup International

Face-toface

Natio nal

Yes

1009

Oct 28 – Nov 4

Cameroon

Yapti Placide

pyaptie@rmsafrica.com

Research & Marketing Company

Face to face

Two main towns

Yes

517

Nov 20 – Nov 25

Canada

Diane Rousseau

drousseau@leger marketing.com

Leger Marketing

Web

Natio nal

Yes

1517

Oct 25 – Oct 27

China

Zhou Xin

zhouxin@comrc.co m.cn

CRC-Research Center

Online survey (Random interview)

5 major cities in China

Yes

1000

Oct 22 – Dec 03

Colombia

Cristina Querubin

cquerubin@cnccol. com

Centro Nacional de Consultoria

-

-

501

-

Czech Republic

Jan Trojacek

trojacek@mareco.c z

Mareco s.r.o.

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1000

Nov12 – Nov 23

Denmark

Roger Elsted

roger.elsted@dmaresearch.com

DMA/Research

Online

Natio nal

Yes

500

Nov01 – Nov 10

Ecuador

Carlos A. Cordova

carlos.cordova@ce datos.com

CEDATOS

-

-

1000

-

-

-

-

39


*

Country

Contact

E-mail

Company

Mode

Samp le Type

Data weigh ted?

Size

Fieldwork Dates

Egypt

Laila Guindy

laila.guindy@radarrpr.com

RADA Research & Public Relations

Face to face

Urban

Yes

1000

Nov – Dec 2010

Finland

MrJari Pajunen

jari.pajunen@taloust utkimus.fi

Taloustutkimus Oy

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1028

Oct 15 – Nov 01

France

Céline Bracq

celine.bracq@bva.fr

BVA

Internet

Natio nal

Yes

979

Nov30 – Dec 01

Germany

Johannes Huxoll

johannes.huxoll@tns -emnid.com

TNS Emnid

Telephone

Natio nal

Yes

501

3-Dec

Ghana

Sam Addy

saddy@rmsafrica.com.

RESEARCH & MARKETING SERVICES

Face to face

Natio nal

No

915

Oct 15 – Oct 21

Iceland

Vilborg Helga Hardardottir..

vilborg.hardardottir@ capacent.is

Capacent Gallup

Online

Natio nal

Yes

1208

Nov10 – Nov 19

India

Arundhati Char

arundhati@marspvt. net

MaRS Monitoring and Research Systems

Face to face

Natio nal

No

1002

Nov09 – Nov 16

Iraq

Dr.Ali Abdal Razak

abdalrazak_ali@iiacs s.org

IIACSS

-

-

1000

-

Italy

Colombo Paolo

paolo.colombo@dox a.it

DOXA S.P.A

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1027

Nov13 – Nov 25

Japan

Hisako Kumada

kumada@nrc.co.jp

Nippon Research Center, Ltd.

Selfadministere d

Natio nal

No

1200

Nov 04 – Nov 16

Kazakhstan

Timur Aisautov

info@drg.kz

DAMU Research group

Telephone

Urban

No

500

Dec 01 – Dec 07

Kosovo

Kaltrina Kuci

k.kuci@indexkosova. com

Index Kosova

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

998

First half of November 2010

Latvia

Aigars Freimanis

latfacts@latfacts.lv

Latvian Facts

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1007

Dec 06 – Dec 22

Lithuania

Jolanta Vonseviciute

jolanta@rait.lt

Rait, Ltd.

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1013

Nov 05 – Nov 15

Macedonia

Ivana Todevska

office@brimagallup.com.mk

BRIMA

Face-toface

Natio nal

Yes

1213

Oct 22 – Oct 29

Malaysia

Krishna.Veni /kara Cheong

Chui Teong@tnsglobal.co m, Krishna.Veni@tnsglobal.com

TNS-R1 Malaysia

Face to face

Urban Penin sular Malay sia

Yes

800

Oct 29 – Dec05

Netherlands

Imre van Rooijen

i.van.rooijen@market response.nl

MarketRespons e

Telephone

Natio nal

Yes

1000

Nov 01 – Nov 22

Nigeria

Josiah Kimanzi

jkimanzi@rmsafrica.com

RMS Nigeria

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

5002

27-Oct

Pakistan*

Fatima Idrees

fatima.idrees@gallup com.pk

Gallup Pakistan

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

2703

Oct 24 – Oct 30

Peru

Gustavo Yrala

gyrala@datum.com. pe

Datum Internacional S.A.

Face to face

Natio nal

No

1204

Nov26 – Dec 01

-

Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup Pakistan (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). We disclaim any responsibility for surveys pertaining to Pakistani public opinion except those carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association. For details on Gallup International Association see website: www.gallup-international.com

40


Country

Contact

E-mail

Company

Mode

Sampl e Type

Data weigh ted?

Size

Fieldwork Dates

Philippines

Lawrence a. Dugan

lawrence.dugan@asi aresearch.com.ph

Asia Research Organization, Inc...

Face to face

Natio nal

No

1000

Oct 18 – Oct 30

Poland

Grzegorz Dąbrowski

grzegorz.dabrowski @mareco.pl

Mareco Polska

Face to face

Urban

Yes

1049

Nov02 – Dec 11

Romania

Delia Bebi

delia.bebi@csop.ro

TNS CSOP

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1109

Nov 23 – Nov 31

Russia

Ivanisheva Natalya…

Ivanisheva.N@romir. ru…

Romir…..

onlineomnibus

Urban

Yes

1000

Oct 25 – Oct 26

Serbia

Jelena Končarević

jelena.koncarevic@t nsmediumgallup.co.r s

TNS Medium Gallup

Face-toface

Natio nal

Yes

1023

Oct 11– Oct 17

South Korea

Hyunjeong Jung

hjujung@gallup.co.kr …

Gallup Korea

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1501

Nov17 – Dec 07

Spain

Luciano Miguel

luciano.miguel@insti tutodym.es

Instituto DYM

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1243

Nov 08 – Nov 29

Sweden

Roger Elsted

roger.elsted@dmaresearch.com

DMA/Research

Online

Natio nal

Yes

500

Dec 01 – Dec 10

Switzerland

Karin Mändli Lerch

Karin.maendlilerch@ hispeed.ch

Isopublic

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1000

17-Nov

Tajikistan

Olimov M.A.

sharq@tajik.net

Research Centre SHARQ

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

1000

Nov08 – Dec 05

Turkey

Arda ÖZKAN , Onur NAR

a.ozkan@barem.co m.tr , o.nar@barem.com.tr

Barem Research

Telephone

Natio nal

Yes

1027

Dec 08 – Dec 13

UK

Sabrina Mohit

Sabrina.Mohit@ICM Research.co.uk

ICM Research…

Telephone

Natio nal

Yes

2011

Nov 10 – Nov 12

Ukraine

Eduard Zolotukhin

zolotukhin@rb.com. ua

Research & Branding Group

Face to face

Natio nal

Yes

2076

Nov22 – Dec 07

USA

Cindy Kaminski

ckaminski@trigus.com

TRIG

online

Natio nal

No

1000

-

Vietnam

Beth Owen

beth@irlhcm.com.vn

Indochina Research Limited

Face-toface

Natio nal

Yes

1000

Oct 20 –Oct 27

WIN-Gallup International

41


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Appendix B: EOY: 2010 Questionnaire Q1. So far as you are concerned, do you think that 2011 will be better, or worse than 2010? 1- Better 2- Same 3- Worse 4- Don’t Know/No Response Q2. Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same? 1- Economic Prosperity 2- Remain the Same 3- Economic Difficulty 4- Don’t Know/No Response Q3. In the next 12 months do you expect the number of unemployed in … (YOUR COUNTRY) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly or fall a lot? 1- Increase a Lot 2- Increase Slightly 3- Remain the Same 4- Fall Slightly 5- Fall a lot 6- Don’t Know/No Response

Continued………..

WIN-Gallup International

42


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

EOY Questionnaire Q4.a Are you now in paid employment - either full time or part time? 1- Full Time 2- Part Time 3- No Q4.b Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there’s a chance you may become unemployed? 1- Present Job is Safe 2- Chance of Unemployment 3- Don’t Know/No Response Q4.c If you became unemployed, do you think you’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly, or do you think it might take longer? 1- New Job Quickly 2- May Take Longer 3- Wouldn’t Look 4- Don’t Know/No Response

Personal Information / Demographics D1. D2. D3. D4. D5. D6. D7.

Sex Age Household income Education: Highest attained Employment Religion Settlement type (Rural/Urban)

WIN-Gallup International

43


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Appendix C: NET HOPE SCORE BY PER CAPITA INCOME (Per Capita Income in US$ at PPP): Figures for 2009 Serial #

Country in alphabetic order

1

Afghanistan

2

Per Capita Income

Net Hope Score

1500

24

Argentina

14120

12

3

Armenia

5420

-3

4

Australia

38210

-7

5

Austria

38550

-1

6

Azerbaijan

9030

2

7

Bangladesh

1580

23

8

Belgium

36520

-1

9

Bosnia

8740

-17

10

Brazil

10260

47

11

Bulgaria

12290

-31

12

Cameroon

2200

-4

13

Canada

37590

-7

14

China

6770

46

15

Colombia

8500

-16

16

Czech Republic

23610

-31

17

Denmark

37720

21

18

Ecuador

8040

-5

19

Egypt

5690

-28

20

Finland

34430

17

21

France

33980

-58

22

Germany

36960

3

23

Ghana

1480

47

24

Iceland

33390

-51

25

India

3260

24 Continued………..

WIN-Gallup International

44


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Serial #

Country in alphabetic order

26

Iraq

3340

17

27

Italy

31330

-35

28

Japan

33280

-21

29

Kazakhstan

10270

22

30

Korea

27310

-6

31

Kosovo*

10000

32

32

Latvia

16510

-37

33

Lithuania

16740

-1

34

Macedonia

10550

-13

35

Malaysia

13530

23

36

Netherlands

40510

-9

37

Nigeria

1980

70

38

Pakistan

2710

-21

39

Peru

8140

29

40

Philippines

3540

15

41

Poland

18440

-14

42

Romania

14460

-46

43

Russian

18390

7

44

Serbia

11420

-45

45

Spain

31630

-35

46

Sweden

38560

24

47

Switzerland

41830

15

48

Tajikistan

1950

5

49

Turkey

13730

-11

50

UK

37360

-44

51

Ukraine

6190

-38

52

USA

46730

-9

53

Vietnam

2850

61

WIN-Gallup International

Per Capita Income

Net Hope Score

45


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Appendix D:

Contact Persons for Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011 in countries across the Globe Name/Company/ Country Assen Blagoev ACSOR Afghanistan

Picture

Name/Company/ Country

*

Bianca Mazzaferro Colmar Brunton Australia

Ingrid Lusk Österreichisches Gallup-Institut Austria

Gerardo Tuñón Corti IBOPE Inteligência Argentina Argentina

Ashraf Hajiyev SIAR Media Azerbaijan

Rahid Ahmed ORG Quest Research Ltd. Bangladesh

William Sterckmans Dedicated Research Belgium Aida HadziavdicBegovic Mareco Index Bosnia Bosnia

Picture

*

Zhou Xin CRC-Research China

*

Cristina Querubin Centro Nacional de Consultoria Colombia

*

Jan Trojacek Mareco Praha Czech republic

*

Laure Castelnau & Hélio Gastaldi IBOPE Inteligência Brazil

Roger Elsted DMA / Research A/S Denmark, Sweden Carlos A. Cordova Cedatos Ecuador

*

*

*

*

* To be placed upon receipt

WIN-Gallup International

46


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Name/Company/ Country

Picture

Dr. Sherine Zaklama RadaResearch & Public Relations Co. Egypt

Mila Grigorova BBSS Bulgaria Kosovo

Arnauld Zeufack RMS Cameroon Cameroon

*

Diane Rousseau & Sarah Weill LĂŠger Marketing Canada

Johannes Huxoll TNS Emnid Germany

Eric Hiamey RMS Ghana Ghana

Dr. Ali Abdal Razak IIACSS Iraq

Picture

*

Jari Pajunen Taloustutkimus Oy Finland

CĂŠline Bracq BVA France

*

*

Vilborg Helga Hardardottir Capacent Iceland Iceland

Arundhati Char MaRS- Monitoring and Research Systems Private Limited India

Name/Company/ Country

John Smurthwaite TNS Malaysia Malaysia

Imre van Rooijen Market Response Netherlands

*

Josiah Kimanzi RMS Nigeria Nigeria

*

Fatima Idrees Gallup Pakistan Pakistan

*

Gustavo Yrala DATUM Internacional Peru

*

* To be placed upon receipt

WIN-Gallup International

47


Global Barometer of Hope and Despair: 2011

Name/Company/ Country

Picture

Name/Company/ Country Teresita K. Perez Asia Research Organization Philippines

Paolo Colombo DOXA Italy

Hisako Kumada & Tazuko Hanzawa Nippon Research Center (NRC) Japan

H.J.Jung Gallup Korea Korea

*

Olga Wiatr MARECO Polska Poland

*

*

*

Cindy Kaminski TriG USA

Natalia Ivanisheva ROMIR Russian federation Armenia, Latvia, Lithuania Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Tajikistan

Luciano Miguel Instituto DYM, S.A Spain

*

Marius Bobi &Delia Bebi CSOP Romania

Ivana Todevska Brima Macedonia

Sladjana Brakus & Jelena Hrnjak TNS Medium Gallup Serbia

Picture

Beth Owen Indochina Research Vietnam

*

Pervin Olgun Arda Ă–zkan Barem Research Turkey

Sabrina Mohit ICM Research UK

*

Matthias Kappeler ISOPUBLIC Switzerland

* To be placed upon receipt

WIN-Gallup International

48


Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). This document is not intended for publication or distribution in the United States including all United States territories nor is it directed at entities and individual located therein. For further details see website: www.Gallup-international.com

49


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