Economic Review

ECONOMIC REVIEW Compiled by BIPIN JHA, Executive, Excel Industries Ltd.

1

Reserve Bank of India issued directions permitting foreign direct investments (FDI) up to 100 per cent in single brand product trading under the Government route subject to stipulated terms and conditions.

2

The Centre’s Direct tax collections during AprilDecember 2011 were up by 14.54% at Rs 3,96,529 crore over the corresponding period last year.

The gross corporate tax collection was up 12.49% at Rs 2,69,850 crore in April-December 2011 against Rs 2,39,883 crore during AprilDecember 2010. The personal income tax collection during April-December 2011 was up by 19.06% at Rs 1,25,998 crore.

50 ď ş CHEMICAL NEWS FEBRUARY 2012

200

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Index of Industrial Production : General (Base : 2004-05 = 100)

180

2010-11

2011-12

160

2009-10

140 120

220 200 180

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Manufacturing : Production Index (Base : 2004-05 = 100)

2011-12

2010-11

160

2009-10 140 120

180

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Index of Industrial Production : Electricity (Base : 2004-05 = 100)

160

3

The indirect tax collections increased by 16.1 per cent to Rs.2.86 lakh crore in April-December 2011 compared to Rs.2.46 lakh crore witnessed during the same period last year. During April-December, the customs duty collection was up by 13.8 per cent and stood at Rs.1.13 lakh crore. The excise collection was at Rs.1.05 lakh crore during the April-December 2011 and the service tax collection stood at Rs.67,706 crore, during April-December 2011.

4

The eight core infrastructure industries growth - crude petroleum, petroleum products, coal, electricity, cement, Natural Gas, Fertilizers and ďŹ nished steel registered growth of 4.6% during AprilNovember 2011 compared to growth of 5.6% recorded during April-November 2010. During April-November 2011, crude oil production registered growth of 2.9% as compared to growth of 11.5% during April-November 2010. Petroleum refinery products recorded growth of 4.5% during April-November 2011 compared to 0.8% growth posted during April-November 2010. Coal recorded negative growth of 4% against the growth of 0.43% in April-November 2010. Cement recorded growth of 4.3% as compared to growth of 5.3% posted during April-November 2010. Electricity witnessed growth of 9.3% in April-

200 180

2011-12

2010-11

160

140

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Basic Goods : Production Index (Base : 2004-05 = 100)

2010-11

2011-12

140 120 100

410 360 310

2009-10 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Capital Goods : Production Index

100

180

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Intermediate Goods : Production Index (Base : 2004-05 = 100)

(Base : 2004-05 = 100)

2011-12

2009-10

120

2011-12

2010-11

2010-11

140 260 210 160

2009-10 2009-10 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

100

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar CHEMICAL NEWS FEBRUARY 2012 ď ş 51

360 328 296

Industrial Sector

BKJ : 16.1

Consumer Durables : Prod. Index (Base : 2004-05 = 100)

2010-11

2011-12

264

2009-10

232 200

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Industrial Sector BKJ : 16.1 30 Chemicals : Production 25 (% change over previous year) 20 15 2009-10 2011-12 10 5 0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar -5 2010-11 -10 -15 -20 November 2011 compared to growth of 4.6% during AprilNovember 2010. Finished steel clocked growth of 8.2% during April-November 2011 as compared to same growth of 8.2% during April-November 2010. Natural gas declined by 8.5% during April-November 2011 as against the rise of 19.9% during April-November 2010. Fertilizers declined by 0.1% during April-November 2011 as against the decline of 1.7% during April-November 2010.

5

Data on Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with the base year 2004-05, released by the CSO show that industrial production registered growth of 5.9% in November 2011 as compared to the growth of 6.4% represented in November 2010. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 80% of the weightage in the IIP, increased by 6.6% in November 2011 as against the growth of 6.5% posted in November 2010. The mining sector declined by 4.4% in November 2011 as compared to growth of 6.9% in November 2010. The Electricity achieved growth of 14.6% as compared to growth of 4.6% during November 2010. During the period April-November 2011 industrial production recorded lower growth of 3.8% as compared to 8.4% growth represented during the corresponding period in 2010. During April-November 2011 manufacturing sector witnessed growth of 4.1% 52 ď ş CHEMICAL NEWS FEBRUARY 2012

Industrial Sector BKJ : 16.1 180 Consumer Non-durables : Prod. Index 170 (Base : 2004-05 = 100) 160 2010-11 150 2011-12 140 130 120 110 2009-10 100 90 80

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

as compared to the growth of 9% registered during the corresponding period in 2010. Mining declined by 2.5% as against the growth of 7% during April-November 2010 and electricity registered growth rate of 9.5 compared to 4.5% growth posted during April-November 2011.

6

Going by the use-based classiďŹ cation of IIP data, in November 2011 the production of Capital Goods segment of the manufacturing industries declined by 4.6% as against the increase of 25.7% in November 2010. Intermediate Goods production increased by 0.2% in November 2011 as compared to growth of 4.3% in November 2010. Basic Goods sector rose by 6.3% as compared to growth of 5.7% in November 2010.

Consumer Durables increased by 11.2% in November 2011 as compared to growth of 7.2% recorded in November 2010. Consumer Non-durables rose by 14.8% as compared to decline of 4.4% in November 2010. During April-November 2011 Consumer Durables registered growth rate of 5.3% as compared to the growth of 14.6% during April-November 2010. Consumer Nondurables growth was at 4.6% compared to growth of 2.9% posted during April-November 2010. During the period Basic Goods recorded growth of 6.2% compared to the growth of 5.4% during April-November 2010. Intermediate Goods declined by 0.3% compared to the growth of 8.1% during April-November 2010. During April-November 2011, Capital Goods declined by 1% as against the rise of 18.2% during April-November 2010.

7

According to the industrywise IIP data, the Chemical Industry declined by 1.4% in November 2011. During AprilNovember 2011 the industry registered decrease of 0.7%.

8

As far as foreign trade is concerned, India’s exports during November 2011 valued at $22.3 bln. recorded growth of 3.9% over its level of $21.5 bln. in November 2010. Imports during the month at $35.9 billion posted increase of 24.6% from its level of $28.8 bln. in November 2010. During April-November 2011-12, exports at $192.7 billion represented growth of 33.2% from the exports at $144.7 billion during April-November 2010-11. Imports during the period at $309.5 billion registered growth of 30.2% over its level of $237.7 billion during April-November 2010-11. Oil import bill during April-November 2011-12 was higher by 42.7% from the level of oil imports during April-November 2010-11. Non-oil imports during April-November 2011-12 were higher by 25.5% from non-oil imports during April-November 201011. The trade deficit for April-November 2011-12 was estimated at $116.8 billion, higher than the deficit of $93 billion during April-November 2010-11.

9

According to RBI report, the overseas investments by Indian companies during AprilDecember 2011 fell by 28.32 per cent to $25.25 billion as compared to $35.23 billion in the same period of last year.

10

Indian Railways carried 704.75 million tonnes of freight traffic during April-December 2011, registering an increase of 4.67 per cent over 673.31 million tonnes carried during April-December 2010.

11

India’s food inflation as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was at minus 2.9 per cent in the week ended 31 December 2011 on account of sharp fall in prices of vegetables.

External Sector BKJ : 16.1 50000 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Imports 45000 (Million Dollars) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

12

India’s foreign exchange reserves dipped by $3.14 billion to $293.54 billion for the week ended 6 January 2012 as compared to $296.68 billion in the previous week. Foreign currency assets, the biggest component of the forex reserves, declined by $3.12 billion to $259.80 billion for the week ended 6 January. The value of special drawing rights (SDRs) fell by $14.8 million to $4.41 billion, and India’s reserves with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fell by $9.1 million to $2.69 billion. The value of gold reserves remained unchanged at $26.62 billion.

13

All India Consumer Price Index Number for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for the month of November 2011 increased by one point and stood at 199.

35000

External Sector

2009-10

Exports

2010-11

BKJ : 16.1

2011-12

30000 (Million Dollars) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

400

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

External Sector

Foreign Exchange

2009-10

2010-11

BKJ : 16.1

2011-12

350 (Billion Dollars) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

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