Abundant Dhaka 2065 by Daniel Radai

Self-generating, selfreplenishing abundant system; Dhaka as model city for global transitions to sustainable water infrastructure

WM0939TU Engineering for sustainable development

Abundant Dhaka 2065

Abundant Dhaka 2065 Abundant Dhaka 2065 Self-generating, self-replenishing abundent system; Dhaka as model city for global transitions to sustainable water infrastructure Image sources for cover:

https://banglapraxis.files.wordpress.com Prof. Md. Abdus Salam personal collection

Authors: Brigitte Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Regan Daniel Radai Linda van der Waart Mentor: Bertien Broekhans

Boatweek WM0939TU Engineering for sustainable development 18 May 2014 Delft University of Technology

Water is becoming scarcer; the world must face a paradigm shift in order to manage water resources sustainably. Bangladesh is one of several countries facing a water crisis, which is worsening with rapid depletion of ground water table and chronic pollution of surface water. In answer to the unsustainabilities identified in a problem analysis of the water crisis, this report sketches an abundant future vision for Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh in the year 2065 where aquaponics have been implemented at different scales suited to different needs and environments across the city through social entrepreneurship. The accessible and incentive rich technology becomes a vehicle to integrate sustainable water management practices into culture, institutions and society across time and embedded in space. On the basis of in-depth literature study and expert interviews, a complex picture is painted of the processes, stakeholders and trends in the rapidly growing and evolving city. We use backcasting to find the necessary steps to reach the present from the future where sustainable water management is a reality.

Chapter 1_Introduction............................................6 Chapter II_Methodology..........................................7 Chapter III_Problem analysis...................................10 Problem definition.........................................................................10 Strategic problem orientation.........................................................13

Chapter IV_Future Vision........................................19

Table of contents 3

Chapter V_Backcasting Analysis..............................24 2065-2050....................................................................................25 2050-2035....................................................................................25 2035-2020....................................................................................26 2020-2015.....................................................................................27

Chapter VI_Vision Elaboration & Action Agenda......33 Chapter VII_Conclusion..........................................37 Bibliography..........................................................39 APPENDIX.............................................................42

http://tedideas.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/dhaka-profile-003.jpg

http://waterintegrityblog.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/akash-highres.jpg

Chapter 1_Introduction Unsustainable water management practices across the spectrum of human activity have led to a Global water crisis. Water is becoming scarcer, ground water is being rapidly depleted and access to clean water is becoming a daily source of conflict and struggle for millions of people worldwide. However, industry , agriculture, population growth and urbanization can evolve and function in harmony with ecosystems, utilise sustainable water management practices and become resilient to the negative effects of climate change. This report shows awareness and concern for what is now being termed â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;the global water-crisisâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; and desires to see unsustainabilities be overturned to embrace an abundant future instead.

Bangladesh is one of several countries that faces huge water management problems. An analysis of the unsustainabilities revealed that this is not only because of the demands on the available water but also because of mismanagement, pollution and inequitable access to clean water and sanitation. In this report (1) a future vision is created that resolves the problems related to water management in Dhaka and (2) a backcasting analysis (Quist, 2013) is presented in order to highlight the steps that lead to the desired future.

Chapter II_Methodology The Backcasting Approach Developing and aiming for sustainable water management involves addressing complex environmental, socio- cultural, economic systems and cycles with far reaching consequences for all levels of life and activity across time and space. Sustainable development by definition means dealing with problems we are facing now and how this will affect the future (Kauffman & Lee, 2013). It is crucial to find an empowering toolset to deal with the relationship between the present and the future which can adequately cater for complexity and which can effectively incorporate pathways for sustainable alternatives. How the future is seen will determine the kind of actions taken now. Quist (2013) identifies 3 points of view that have been used to address present and future needs for sustainable development; 1 Trend extrapolations lead to likely futures (what will happen). 2. Alternative, possible futures respond to the question of (what could happen)

3. Envisioned desirable futures (what should happen).

ECO-Efficiency

The last position is seen by Quist as offering the most potential for approaching sustainable development. Since sustainability is a normative concept, a normative approach is needed to highlight the pathway reaching it. Quist, draws on Dreborg’s theory (Quist, 2013), which coins the term ‘backcasting; to develop such a methodology. Backcasting incorporates the lines of both dominant trends and side externalities. According to Quist and Vergragt (2011) backcast-

ing

Sustainable Future Vision

t cas

This report focuses on innovative system shifts. Targeting a desirable future humanity would like to have not just from the point of view of technological innovation but as a holistic condition. The scenario described here is developed from a specific problem oriented analysis concerning groundwater. We use a participatory backcasting approach, involving stakeholders both during the problem elaboration (present) and problem solving (desired future) phases. By identifying milestones and analysing the course of action needed to achieve the desired outcome a complex and inclusive framework is created where environmental, socio-economic and cultural components is identified.

STEP 1

Strategic problem orientation

STEP 2

Develop future vision

STEP 3

Backcasting analysis

STEP 4

Elaborate future alternative & define follow-up agenda

STEP 5

Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up

Figure 2: 5 steps of participatory backcasting (Quist, 2013) Figure 3: 5+1 modified steps of the report’s methodology f.

STEP 5 Implementation plan, action agenda and stakeholder consultation

STEP 0

topic, scale and problem

STEP 1

Strategic problem orientation

STEP 2

sustainable future visions

STEP 3 Back casting analysis STEP 4

Unsustainable Present Conditions

Time Figure 1: a schematic idea of backcasting based on Quists ideas.

ing is an approach stepping backwards from a future scenario in order to expose how it can be achieved (see Figure 1).

Vision elaboration & expert consultation

STEP 5 Action agenda

In Figure 2 based on Quist (2013) the five steps needed for backcasting are named. Because this assignment is an introduction to the approach in an academic context our assignment is not as elaborate as if it were taking place in practise. The main differences are found in the last two steps. For step 4 the expert consultation included interviews with a hydrologist in the Netherlands and an aquaponics expert and Professor of Aquaculture in Bangladesh, but the topic could not be widely tested among other stakeholders. Step 5 builds on an Action agenda.

In the report Chapter 3 elaborates Steps 0 and 1 outlining the unsustainabilities and the strategic problem orientation. Identification of systematic groundwater related problems and thus the main unsustainabilities also reveals the improvement opportunities and identification of stakeholders who can and would like to see these shifts happen. It was vital to address which aspects of life, groundwater depletion and pollution affected in order to be able to create a solution framework applicable and appropriate to different scales and contexts. In the beginning, the trends of ground water depletion and pollution were assessed on a global scale. From a global analysis it became clear that areas where urbanisation was happening rapidly faced acute water crisis. Zooming in on the most heavily affected areas we chose Bangladesh and its capital city, Dhaka in order to develop a backcasting approach linked to the social technical system of Urban development or Urban evolution. We differentiated these two terms as our wish was to marry formal and informal processes. A viable sustainable future vision was highlighted in Chapter 4 (Step 2) where a technical solution that clearly encompasses the socio-economic and cultural aspects was elaborated . Aquaponics was found to be an interesting possible technological solution that showed potential for implementation across scales and communities in the urban context which could meet many of the immediate threats but could also provide a platform to tackle the manifold issues related to sustainable water management. (see Appendix “Aquaponics”). From here the following research question was formulated: “How might the needs for health, prosperity, good water management and equity of the future populations of city of Dhaka, Bangladesh be met through the implementation of aquaponics?”

4 major socio-technical questions guided the hypothetical realisation of the future vision. (1) Who is involved in the process?

(2) What do they do in the process?

(3) Why are they involved in the process and why is it done? (4) How will things happen?

Sub-research questions were addressed in each chapter of the backcasting steps: 1. What is the current state of the water management system in Dhaka, if we take stakeholders, trends and developments and unsustainabilities into account? (Step 0-1: Strategic problem orientation) 2. How can additional stakeholders benefitting from aquaponics be engaged to facilitate the implementation and development of the practice in Dhaka? (Step 2: Sustainable Future Vision) 3. How can aquaponics be integrated into the Urban development of Dhaka? (Step 2: Sustainable Future Vision)

4. What are the necessary socio-technical changes in periods of time to realize the future vision? (Step 3: Backcasting analysis) 5. Which cultural, technological and structural changes are already feasible, which are not, and how should this be addressed? (Step 4-5: Elaboration and Action agenda)

At first, the economic, environmental and cultural benefits of aquaponics in a future Dhaka were explored followed by the possible effect on the development of the city. Finally, a reflection on the shifts of socio-technical system introduced in chapter 3 is found. The stakeholders and the institutional framework received a particular attention for the sustainable future vision, ‘Abundant Dhaka 2065’.

The 3rd step is the Backcasting Analysis itself found in Chapter 5. Focus was placed on the WWWH questions introduced in the previous paragraph. The purpose was to highlight what specific changes in the socio-technical system were necessary to reach within a specific timeframe. Therefore, the actors, their motivation, and the process of change in the technical, socio-cultural and institutional aspects were elaborated. The emphasis of the time-frame is on 4 main periods including 2050-2065, 2050-2035, 2035-2020, and 2015-2020.

In the 4thand 5th step presented in chapter 6 the vision is elaborated through the economic, technological and cultural impacts and consulted primarily through two interviews with field-experts as well as an action agenda is provided. Frank Smits from Waternet showed a sceptical look on vertical farming as he doubted its feasibility but provided with fruitful input for water management (see in Appendix ‘Interviews’) in relation of the surface water issues and flooding. Prof. Md. Abdus Salam from the Bangladesh Agricultural University delivered an invaluable input into aquaponics in the developing countries (Appendix ‘Interviews’). It was inspirational to receive positive feedback and information on the practical possibilities. As a next step further feasibility analysis on different scales and the choice of a pilot area are suggested through characterising the involvement of different stakeholders.

Conclusion

Parallel to what Quist (2013) is stating about the benefits of backcasting, a desirable normative scenario of an abundant Dhaka city is envisioned in this backcasting report. The main task was to explore the socio-technical system around ground water and the impacts of the introduced technology and development on it.

Chapter III_Problem analysis Introduction In this chapter we evolve Step 0: Identifying the problem and Step 1: Strategic Problem Orientation of the Backcasting method to help identify sustainable development models that can alleviate the global water crisis. Perhaps because we are physicists, urbanists and architects our way of thinking tends to deal with realities on different scales. We understand that different rules apply for different scales but that each different scale also affects the other. As urbanist and architects the level of attention always shifts from large and global to detailed and specific, often cycling back and forth between scales in order to understand relationships and to grasp complexity. Here as well we have used this approach. We begin by contextualising the water crisis globally, identifying the most heavily hit countries and then the most pervasive trends for unsustainability and where they are most acute. This analysis of the trends and unsustainabilities led us to focus on the city of Dhaka and its urban evolution.

Research Question

What is the current state of the water management system in Dhaka, if we take stakeholders, trends and developments and unsustainabilities into account? (Step 0-1: Strategic problem orientation)

Problem definition

The research in this report emanated from concerns related to what is now being termed â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;the global water-crisisâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; (Barlow, 2008; Chellaney, 2013; Ward, 1997). According to the street interviews made in Rotterdam, the general attention for issues on sustainability in the developed world focuses much more on energy issues than water related problems. Even so, the water crisis is acknowledged globally and is being addressed by worldwide organisations like the United Nations and the World Water Counsel. The main agreement in defining the crisis is that unsustainable use of freshwater resources will lead to severe and widespread ecological and human emergencies (Gleick, 1998). Freshwater resources are being rapidly depleted. This is not so much because of the demands on the system

but because of mismanagement, pollution and inequitable access to clean water and sanitation. Depletion and pollution of freshwater is contributing to climate change, drought, and water scarcity resulting in thirst, disease, small and large scale conflicts and famine. Unsustainable use and management (ibid) of the available water resources especially ground water have induced a depletion in the natural water systems that has now reached the stage of a global crisis. Figure 4 presents factors on freshwater reduction. The United Nations Environment Program included Coopersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; factors with a percentage of water usage (2010) showing the demands contributing to the ground water depletion because of mismanagement of surface water and lack or sustainable water defences:

- Agricultural demands (70%)

- Population growth (9%)

- Industrial demands (21%)

- Climate change

Due to the increasing lack of access to fresh and clean surface water these factors all lead to a rapid groundwater depletion and are in themselves interrelated, contributing to escalating and compounding trends of unsustainable water management. Population growth leads to more agricultural and industrial demands increasing water stress. Industrial and human water pollution facilitates the destruction, first of surface waters and then of ground water. Scarcity leads to conflict leading to the degradation of infrastructure, education and the quality of life. Through this interconnectivity it is clear that solving â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;the water crisisâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; would involve dealing with complex systems and networks with implications in nearly every facet of life and activity.

agricultural demands

climate change

industrial demands

population growth

potable water supply technology advances

Figure 4: factors that decrease freshwater supplies (Cooper, Introduction to sustainable water, 2013)

Figure 5: Water crisis: Global Physical and economic water scarcity (WWAP, 2012)

Bangladesh The most affected areas of (ground) water problems are Central-Africa, the Middle East and South-East-Asia. Bangladesh was chosen as case study area for this report since it faces falling ground water tables and polluted surface water bodies thus, scarcity in general. The South-Asian country is highly dependent on agriculture and then mostly for subsistence, and deals with an enormous population growth (UNEP 2010, Water Wealth, 2012). What is more, heavily polluted floods occur regularly in the wet season. Rainwater is often led away from cities in order not to press the sewage system, thus, does not contribute to ground water recharge. However, the drainage capacity is still deficient and the waste water flows to the surface bodies without cleaning. Even though, Bangladesh is fairly rich in groundwater resources, the demands of urbanisation and lacking replenishment reduce this amount drastically (Sengupta et al., 2012).

Dhaka

In the 1960s water was the most influential land-cover supplying drinking water to the entire capital of Bangladesh (Salam, 2014). In relation to the uncontrolled expansion of the city the built up areas have grown by nearly 400% in recent years. In the meantime, the amount of water surface has decreased by 33% (Sengupta et al., 2012). The explosive growth of the city of Dhaka invaded the natural drainage channels that once led away rainwater. Now every year the summer-monsoon results in severe floods causing health problems due to poor sanitation. The increasing pollution of water bodies leads to a growing dependency on ground water in the city. Currently 87% of the water supply is based on underground aquifers. The level of water falls

3 meters every year (currently located about 52 metres under sea level that is nearly 40 metres lower than during the 1970s). The fast depletion is a causing salinization (Sengupta et al., 2012; Smits, 2014), the quality of groundwater is heavily deteriorating. Arsenic and fluoride contamination of the water is affecting nearly the entire city of Dhaka and 80 million people around Bangladesh through the tube wells of the shallow aquifers (Water Wealth, 2012; Salaam, 2014; Sengupta et al., 2012). According to the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (WASA), Dhaka requires 2.4 billion litres of water a day, which is 300 million litres more than it can now supply. According to some unofficial sources the gap is even bigger (Wadud, 2011).

Figure 6: (ground) water problems and management oppportunities

water

drinking water

water scarcity poor quality ical

governance t

cie

management tal

on m

existing water use

ground water

depletion

alternative future analysis

minimum water requirement

tal

Environmental

ie Soc

om i

rainwater

available usable water

it equ

sustainability criteria

pollution

surface water

crisis

sustainable water resources

En vir

waistwater salinisation

wants and needs

equi

social values

prioritise water resources

Econom al

institutional eductional programs adaptive management actions

management alternatives 12

Strategic problem orientation Major Unsustainabilities in Dhaka In the tables below, you’ll find an overview of all the major unsustainabilities, focused on Dhaka.

Environmental and technical

Unsustainability

Results

Over-extraction of ground water

Water pollution and scarcity

Informal settlements – illegal water source Poor sanitation

Double price, broken pipes – bacteria overheating and urban heat islands Polluted surface water

Lack of greenery

Overheating and urban heat islands

Expensive water and shortages

Forced to use polluted water

Degraded water management infrastructure Rapid urban growth and densification (every piece of land becomes built upon)

Flooding

Destruction of natural systems of drainage and replenishment

Social-Economic Unsustainability

Results

Land is wasted and bare leading to loss of fertility

Desertification

Agriculture is poor, over 80% of products is used for subsistence

Low profits in sector with a high demand for employment

High energy demands for deep well pumps and the embodied energy in chemical sanitation systems

Working conditions highly precarious but supplying Bangladesh with 47% of employment Women are especially vulnerable in the labour force

People are disconnected from the water and food cycle Korail is the biggest slum;

Uttara is an area that struggles with the link between formal and informal settlements Many unfinished multilevel building developments – city in need of economic impulse to trigger urban development and stimulate local economy

Expensive water management

Forced immigration

Lack of water and food security Overpopulated, ultra-dense area without facilities The area is unaffordable for the middle class people, for whom it was meant to house and the area has become partly overrun by informal immigrant dwellings

Stakeholder analysis In Dhaka, the municipal government is the primary developer of housing and is also responsible for the maintenance of water and city infrastructure (Rashid, 2002). However, urban development is thwarted by other stakeholders such as land speculators which make urban development unaffordable. Another problem is exploitation of immigrants to the city by landlords whom run illegal slums on their land. These problems lead to unregulated development of Dhaka, and by default and for profit, the destruction of its natural ecological water defences.

The government itself is despotic (Hague, 2002) and prone to corruption (Zafarullah, 2001). These factors are evident in the stakeholders; speculators, government and landlords (often interchangeable) pose the greatest threat to sustainable development. Parasitic as it were on the desperation of another major stakeholder in Bangladesh, landless peasants, whom seek a better life in the city.

P PEO

LOW SKILLED WORKER

SLUM RENTERS

REFUGEES LOCAL GOVERNMENT

NATIONAL GOVERNMENT

ENGINEER

NGO INTERNATIONAL AID

HOUSING AUTHORITY MIDDLE CLASS

LAND SPECULATORS

PLANNER

ARCHITECT

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PRIVATE BUILDING AND HOUSING DEVELOPERS LARGE FOOD CORPORATIONS SLUM LAND OWNERS

PLA

HOME OWNERS

O PR

FIT

Figure 7: Stakeholders of Dhaka water system

Another big player in Bangladesh is NGO. Bangladesh has over 23.000 NGOs (Hague, 2002) active within its border. They have been influential in Bangladesh since its independence in 1971 even establishing banks for sustainable development. They provide micro-financing and infrastructure for equity and empowerment. Another major stakeholder next to NGOs is international aid given for development. Aid for subsistence, particularly from the USA, is given in the form of wheat (Mondal, 2010). This wheat supplies the Bangladesh with sufficient stock as local agriculture of Bangladesh is not yet yielding enough food for self-sufficiency (Mondal, 2010). The urban poor are the most hit by natural disasters. Due to lack of infrastructure and planned affordable housing the poor are also among the greatest contributors to the pollution of surface water and degradation of the environment in Dhaka.

Urban evolution and water management in Dhaka - a socio-technical system The next step was to connect the problem definition and the factors that cause the water crisis, with the information available on Dhakaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s urban development or evolution as we prefer to see it. By combining these interrelated factors, a socio-technical system can be identified. The system shows how social and technical factors and processes work together. The question that needed to be answered was: what is the present day state of the water management in Dhaka? The answer lays in the subparagraph on Dhaka, but to quickly sum them up:

CHALLENGES

WATERMANAGEMENT

Yearly flooding of the city (versus a yearly drought)

Natural drainage system degraded by unregulated urban growth

River water polluted Groundwater depletion

Poor service quality Sanitation problems

Unplanned urban development including slums

The socio technical system that we address in our future vision will involve the formal and informal flows and networks of urban evolution and infrastructure of Dhaka. Water infrastructure and cycles in terms of institutional, societal and technological processes is our focus.

Water ecology built over Decentralisation International industry (particularly India)

Agriculture (uses 80% of all ground water) No clean surface water leading to expensive deep well extraction Deep extraction leads to lower water table bringing heavy metals to the surface and allowing saltwater to enter the aquifer from the sea Corruption Lack of land use regulation to protect common good Land speculation

Informal development lacking knowledge for self management of water and life cycles Frustrated formal development (no financial incentive/ resources) Poor drainage infrastructure No central processing for sewerage Drinking water is expensive and is mediated by a few (no equity and exploitation and conflict)

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL AID agriculture industry NATIONAL GOVERNMENT LARGE FOOD CORPORATIONS salination LAND SPECULATORS pollution over-exploitation SLUM LAND OWNERS

CREATION

agriculture industry sanitation salination infrastructure forestry

packaging infrastructure storage

supply

PROCESS

NGO UN cleaning PLANNER LOCAL GOVERNMENT shops HOUSING AUTHORITY PRIVATE BUILDING AND HOUSING DEVELOPERS

CONSUMPTION ENGINEERING FARMING BIO-TECHNOLOGY FORESTRY

REFUGEES LOW SKILLED WORKERS food SLUM RENTERS human waste water HOME OWNERS greywater MIDDLE CLASS

urban planning hydrology sociology pedagogy Figure 8: Ground water in Dhaka as a socio-spatial system

Trends and developments: analysis for Dhaka city To define a future vision, trends and developments were analysed. The following major trends were of interest in linking urban evolution processes with stakeholders and water management issues: WATER

• Ground water is being depleted at the rate 3 metres per year in Dhaka • Fresh water is not available in the dry season

• Surface water is compromised by poor sanitation (locally) and (local and international) industrial pollution

• Recently Dhaka City Development Authority proposed certain new policies to facilitate rainwater harvesting on the roof areas for instance, awareness of ground water is growing. If 60% of rain water was collected on the rooftops, it could provide nearly 200 million litres extra water per day for the inhabitants (Kabir & Khan, 2013). * A decentralised system of water management is recommended to reduce pressure on infrastructure and distribution costs. (ibid) PEOPLE

• 11 million people die annually of thirst or water pollution related diseases • 1/3 of Dhaka does not enjoy water security

• 17% of immigrants are driven from the countryside due to climate change

* Women in Dhaka are paid much less for the same work as men • Dhaka and Bangladesh are moving toward greater democracy(Hague, 2002)

• Dhaka has a rapidly growing economy 7% per year, mostly in the service sector making the city the economic heart SPATIAL

• By 2020 the greater area of Dhaka will be fully urbanised • Speculation means there is little affordable formal housing, that there is a lot of waste land and unfinished buildings • Dhaka is a young city now undergoing a population boom and rapid growth and is now highly

dense. It is the tendency of cities first to densify to develop the periphery and then to gradually de-densify, and then to redevelop the old core. People flow from outside in, to inside out. The water crisis is roughly caused by three factors: depletion, pollution and inequity with agriculture, industry, population growth and climate change compounding and perpetuating the problems as a result of unsustainable water management practises (Cooper, 2013). As background information for the future vision, the trends and developments on both global scale and the scale of Bangladesh were analysed. An overview can be found in the Appendix on “Trends and Developments”. Though we cannot stem back urban growth we can try to match it to sustainable development and by identifying some key demands and linking these to stakeholders.

Conclusion The (Ground) water crisis is a complex global problem. In order to be able to address the issue and improve the socio-technical system related to the trends of rapid urban growth and unsustainable water management, a case study area was chosen, Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. Through global and local analysis it is possible to ascertain the correlations between global and local problems. By default, because the problems have a larger scope, the solutions identified for Dhaka can be generalised to a wider use especially in similar contexts.

The main unsustainabilities, stakeholders and trends of the water related system have been introduced. It is evident that Dhakaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future is lacking a coherent planning framework. It seems clear that central development and planning must be made possible by better regulation with financial incentives that can feed back to the common good and that these processes will need to be transparent and monitored due to trends of corruption. Since formal development cannot match the demand for housing and infrastructure yet, skills sharing, incentives, training and awareness for informal settlements and stakeholders must be introduced to protect the people living there, the ecology and to ensure sustainable development in Dhaka. International stakeholders could play an important role in safeguarding and initiating this process as they are already entrenched in Bangladesh and Dhaka to achieve similar ends.

Chapter IV_Future Vision Abundant Dhaka 2065 Introduction In our initial vision for Abundant Dhaka 2065 we envisioned a system that would provide more than enough. More than enough food, more than enough clean water, more than enough bio-diversity, more than enough wealth, space, shelter, culture, education, inclusion, equity, health, energy and joy. Closed loops and wealth form waste. We desire not only an end to the water crisis that is threatening Bangladesh as a whole and the city of Dhaka in particular but a turningaround of the system based on seeing the very threats facing the populations and ecosystems of Bangladesh as an opportunity. We needed a system that would address the unsustainabilities and provide us with more than that.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1. How can additional stakeholders benefitting from aquaponics be engaged to facilitate the implementation and development of the technology in Dhaka?

2. How can aquaponics be integrated into the Urban Evolution of Dhaka?

Sustainability criteria vs. Unsustainabilities We started with the current challenges for sustainable water management and identified what the sustainable counterpart would be.

Figure 9: PPP future vision

ACCESS TO CLEAN DRINKING WATER FREE ACCESS TO WATER AVAILABLE HEALTH AND SANITATION

CLOSED WATER LOOP (NOT JUST DRINKING WATER) INCORPORATED WILDLIFE RAINWATER HARVESTING WATER MANAGAMENT

ACCESS TO MORE THAN ENOUGH FOOD VERTICAL FARM CULTURAL EXPRESSION OF WATER (PART OF THE AWARENESS-SACRED CULTURE) WATER MANAGEMENT APPROPRIATE TO SCALE

ppp future vision

“CLIMATE IS A GIFT, IS A TOOL” NATURAL WORLD EVERMORE ABUNDANT DENSITY & DIVERS LAND USE DRIP IRRIGATION

WATER SAFETY

CHEMICAL/PHARMACEUTICAL FREE WATER

WATER AS A PRODUCTIVE WEALTH FOR THAT AREA PROFIT FROM WATER FAIR WEALTH DISTRIBUTION

PROFIT

SMALL SCALE INDUSTRY, LOCAL TRADE (COULD BE CLOSED LOOP)

FAIR AND PROTECTED LOCAL MARKET REAL COSTS DIVERSITY IN ECONOMY WEALTH FROM WASTE, WASTE AS ENERGY

ENERGY FROM WATER

E AN

Surface water is clean

Surface water is polluted and unusable for agriculture and drinking water

Groundwater is conserved, and replenished in a perpetual cycle

Ground water is over used, ground water is wasted and useable ground water will run out

People have equitable access to clean water

People pay a lot for water and are forced to use polluted water when shortages occur

People are healthy and secure

People die of famine and water pollution related diseases especially in the summer months

People are an integral part of water and food management

People are disconnected from the water and food cycle

Climate change effects are minimized to protect food, shelter and water security

People, water and food security are vulnerable to calamity

Water is managed in energy neutral way

High energy demands for deep well pumps and the embodied energy in chemical sanitation systems and other materials

Narrowing the scope: Aquaponics for an abundant Dhaka

Market Analysis - Linking present needs and trends to sustainable development of aquaponics in Dhaka

It became evident to us through our research and interviews that many different interventions would be needed, and could be possible to achieve the sustainability criteria. A good water management structure is complex with many facets. {see diagram} So we narrowed our focus on a technology that could meet immediate threats, even utilize them. We envisioned implementing the technology so that it could provide a platform for universal improvements while bringing awareness and facilitating inclusive self management of the problems facing Dhaka and Bangladesh. Because of its simplicity, ability to meet immediate needs, high yields, climate resilience, profitability, low maintenance requirements and also potential for many uses across many scales, aquaponics emerged as a promising technological platform for the changes and abundance we wanted to achieve. Aquaponics is a method of sustainable food production. For more detailed information on the technique, see Appendix “Aquaponics”. As Dhaka’s rapid, uncontrolled and poorly facilitated urban growth is one of the trends that is threatening it’s water security, we identified this growth as the right vehicle for implementing aquaponics. We married the technology of Aquaponics to the pattern of urban evolution taking place now in Dhaka and to its future formal urban development and informal evolution. Linking the heart of the problem to the heart of the solution along with tying aquaponics to present trends and market demands.

ECONOMY

- There is often drought in the summer months, this leads to water shortage, and therefore food shortages. Producing vegetables and fish at this time could save families lives. While commercially it can be very profitable.

- Pollution has led to the death of the rivers fish. Producing fish in all seasons will be profitable - Decorative plants can also be grown for profit

- Highly flexible with great diversity of fruits and vegetables thriving

- Street markets provide ample opportunity for sale of small scale commercial produce - Larger scale produce can be distributed to local supermarkets, shops and vendors

- Rural food production now only produces 17% of its food for the market, aquaponics could also add to efficiency in this sector allowing famers a greater market share ENVIRONMENT

- Highly efficient use of space, water and high productivity in less time than traditional agriculture - All organic

- Can be utilized in flood prone zones

- Aquaponics can lead to better land management

- Rooftop aquaponics reduce the temperature of urban heat islands and on a large scale can cool Dhaka - Aquaponics is closed cycle so one does not have to pay for water

- If sustainable technology such as wind power or solar cells were to be combined with the system there is no extra energy cost and therefore no strain on outside resources CULTURE

- People are connected to food cycle in cities, leading to harmonizing with nature and well being - People can enjoy high quality produce from all walks of life, there is a desire for this

- Health improves with enough nutrition and protein and essential oils, there is a need for this

- Aquaponics can provide an important link to the agrarian past and food variety - Business models can be linked to other values that support equity, inclusion and cultural exchange

Description of the Sociotechical system - A durable network of fulfillment: Aquaponics, the road to sovereignity “A good city is a civic organism. If piling buildings after buildings next to each other, on top of one another, does not make a city, what does? The term “city” itself derives from civitas, a Latin word with a cluster of meanings: citizen, civic, and civilization. As the city draws people from various ethnic, racial, and social categories into one space, it becomes a place defined by differences and complexities. The most critical need for a city is a civilized means of addressing and sorting out these differences. The city ought to be a place where one may find one’s personal and spiritual fulfillment in the company of others, uncoerced and in the light of human dignity. The ultimate expression of a well-formed civic place is the cosmopolis that becomes, in the view of the French philosopher Jacques Derrida, “a city of refuge,” a place that guarantees anyone the right to residence and hospitality, and the opportunity for work, recreating and creative activity in a “durable network of fulfillment.”

(Ashraf, 2010) In Abundant Dhaka 2065 aquaponics have

evolved with Urban development and have spread throughout the city evident on every scale. In our vision, aquaponics have infiltrated society in such a manner that it has provided a collective platform and infrastructure for dealing with many issues relating to (un)sustainability of the city and of the country side in Bangladesh. The tools for community empowerment across groups and scales in the implementation of this aquaponics has been corruption resistant, resilient and open source. Social equity, cultural significance, economic gain and ecological wealth have been intrinsic to the development and maintenance of aquaponics. Technological Vision

ACROSS ALL CITY SCALES AND BUILT TYPOLOGIES

Aquaponics thrives in both formal and informal settlements in the city. The beauty of the technology is its simplicity, accessibility and ability to offer gains for people at all strata in society. In Abundant Dhaka 2065 there are large scale vertical commercial installations that can even cater to export produce. There are medium level commercial installations on the rooftops or on waste land that provide produce for the markets. There are pleasure gardens to delight all city dwellers. Poorer households educate one another in its use and implement aquaponics to support their families and protect against climate chaos. WATER HARVESTING, STORAGE AND ENERGY

Water is stored in wells under buildings and on rooftops and rain water harvesting is used to replenish aquaponic systems and provide drinking water. Defending against climate change and precarity. All installations are energy neutral or go further to provide and store energy for the city grid. THE CITY AS CATALYST FOR INNOVATION IN THE COUNTRYSIDE

Education programs and business model facilitation sponsored by aquaponics have led to the increased productivity of the countryside, greatly improving energy infrastructure and water defence. COOLING AND BIODIVERSITY

Aquaponics cool the city of Dhaka preventing urban heat islands by providing much needed

greenery and urban ponds and pools to cool the city air. Larger installations are strategically implemented to improve the quality of public space and to protect existing wetlands. Societal Vision

GENDER EQUITY MEETS CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND INCLUSION

Women have an important role and are included in managing the system as small scale managers, to engineering and construction works, to larger scale system managers and urban planners. Women across all groups are also the cultural ambassadors that resolve and mediate conflict. They meet and discuss the changing situation and needs of the diverse communities in Dhaka in city quarter and city wide based networks. Principles of equity, security and empowerment are sacred concepts, and are inherent to education on the technology. All age groups, genders and ethnicities have a part in running and educating about aquaponics and are encouraged to bring their innovations and traditions to the implementing the technology in ever more diverse ways. EDUCATION & HEALTH

Aquaponics has become an important tool for understanding about water and life cycles and balances. It is used not only growing food, but are used to produce medicinal herbs and decorative plants that empower people to care for their health and enrich the liveliness of their environments. Appealing to the poet, the philosopher, the aesthete and the spiritual. Institutional Vision

Aquaponics will be integrated in a normative sense across institutions. At the institutional level in the future vision there are three tiers of actors involved; the local and city wide citizen assemblies that include the business interests which are bond the interests of these communities; public institutions such as schools, hospitals, local government, the courts, the law and the police and the international community with NGOS, Unions and Human Rights organisations. The local government plays a connective and facilitating role between these tiers. Although, it is envisioned that the system will be sovereign

and managed by the people of the city of Dhaka, and ultimately by the people and country of Bangladesh. An ethical and neutral international community is needed to monitor the structures for equity, inclusion and health and to protect the wealth of Bangladesh from exploitation from the international community. CITIZEN BASED INSTITUTIONS

The neighbourhood and city wide assemblies - conflict mediation and inclusion - community education - community advocacy - cultural exchange - skills exchange - out reach

PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS The local government

- health regulations & inspections - legislation against monopoly

- legislation for equitable land use and biodiversity

- maintenance 15% of Aquaponics infrastructure to protect against calamity and provide for the common good - taxation on commercial aquaponics to be redirected to further education and infrastructure

- monitor and enforce equity in employment and education - all government buildings

- are responsible for integrating aquaponics in to urban development Universities & Schools - Teach aquaponics

- have large experimental installations to facilitate innovation and education - have an equity and inclusion policy in education relating to gender, ethnicity, income and background (ie including people from rural communities) Hospitals

- Incorporate aquaponics to grow medical herbs to heal people

- Incorporate aquaponics to provide healing environments INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

International human rights organizations, NGOs and unions - monitor transparency and anti-monopoly structures - monitor inclusion structures

- protect against exploitation by the international community

Conclusion

It is shown in this future vision how not only the technology but the way it is implemented is key to resolving unsustainabilities and utilising existing trends.

In her book â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;The Economy of Citiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, Jane Jacobs shows that it was not agriculture that gave birth to cities but cities that gave birth to agriculture. In the next chapter, we will backcast in a similar train that the aquaponics network in Dhaka can provide the important impulse and innovation to also improve and resolve the problems facing the countryside.

Chapter V_Backcasting Analysis Summary Before the actual backcasting (Step 3 of the method) was started, research has been done on the involved factors of the socio-technical system, to create a clear and non-conflicting storyboard. An explanation of the backcasting analysis can be found in detail in the Appendix “Backcasting Support and Elaboration”. Key processes in our back casting analysis are that of urban evolution trends and social entrepreneurship. We back cast and link the wide spread implementation of aquaponics with the formal and informal urban Evolution of Dhaka. We envision social entrepreneurship playing a central role in role in bringing this about. The key actors in linking urban evolution to social entrepreneurship are locally entrenched NGOs.

Why NGOs would be interested in redirecting aid to this end is that one of their primary roles since the 1970s in Bangladesh is in helping the landless poor (Hague, 2002). In our future vision we included a market analysis, showing that Aquaponics can be used for commercial gain and as well as cater to the needs of the very poor and precarious, especially in times of drought and famine. The benefit of NGOs working together with grassroots communities and immigrants is that a community infrastructure can be set up based on values outside mere wealth creation. And that the wealth that is created takes on a different role and meaning. NGOs will be instrumental in instigating social entrepreneurship and setting up community platforms.

Below you’ll find a description of the Backcasting per timeframe (2065-2050, 2050-2035, 20352020, 2020-2015). The processes needed (societal, institutional and technological) can be found in the supporting diagrams, just like the actors and their motivations. More details can be found in the Appendix “Backcasting: processes”.

2065-2050 CULTURAL-SPATIAL CONSOLIDATION & INDEPENDENCE Description The Aquaponics system is now 100% financially independent and has a sound basis for community sponsorship and education. People have grown up with sovereignty over their own food production and with active engagement in the development of the city through aquaponics. No international or government aid is needed to maintain wide spread use of aquaponics domestically or commercially. Lower population growth and a more stable countryside means

Institutional

Societal

Technological

that a new ring can be added to the city to again alleviate the density of the core and also enhances the water defense of the city. Informal settlements and poor infrastructure are now a thing of the past. Meaning that other values cultural and aesthetic can take greater importance. Again as the periphery is developed the core is alleviated and redeveloped with respect for heritage, public space and quality of life. Aquaponics are firmly entrenched in urban planning and development.

Aquaponics are completely integrated into the city of Dhaka and its development at least 50% of rooftops are used The wetlands have been sustainably integrated with aquaponics for perpetually cleaning surface water The efďż˝iciency of the projects means that 50% of the food demands of Dhaka are met by aquaponics Dhaka and Bangladesh have enough to export their installations and products overseas

Aquaponics are diverse with many different cultural interpretations, installations are used for leisure (gardens), commerce and education Aquaponics are interwoven with the ďż˝inest ideals of culture and society, compassionate technology, accessible and intercultural Health has increased and mortality is low

Large percentage of the population are highly educated

Living standards have improved to the extent where other pursuits become important for people across all classes Fully independent management of all aquaponics systems and programs is established

Sustainable water management is now a reality and protected by law and enforced by local community and government

2050-2035 PRIMARY THEME: STABLE CIVIL SOCIETY & COUNTRYSIDE Description In this phase the country side has become an appealing place to live and work. The threats which once forced people from their land have been dealt with, with community assemblies and education around aquaponics playing a key role. The city begins to de-denisfy. Attractive settlements replace informal ones on the periphery. Affordable collective housing is provided in lush areas close to the economic centers, replacing poorly constructed buildings. Aquaponics is incorporated in every scale of development from pleasure gardens to factory roof tops with continued large scale vertical and horizontal constructions. Abundant market places are characteristic of every neighborhood. Culture has become more integrated into the technology so that the diversity

of approaches is also complimented by a diversity of cultural interpretations. Dhaka is a model city for urban food production and a knowledge center for the world. New aquaponic installations are for the most part paid for by the income from previous installations. Clean surface water everywhere is now a reality due to the power of the education programs on aquaponics and their ability to link technology for sustainability with urban development. Women now enjoy greater equity and a place in public life due to the positive policies on education and inclusion linked to the social entrepreneurship that instigated the spread of aquaponics in Dhaka.

Societal Technological

S P

Vertical installations become more ef�icient and easy to maintain

Aquaponics industry in Bangladesh is able to supply all components needed for high level closed water and energy loop Aquaponic systems become integrated into water defense utilising the seasonal �looding and protecting settlements There is a tangible increase of income of women in cities

Aquaponics education and assemblies have provided the platform for sharing awareness and implementing other forms of urban infrastructure for sustainable water management The informal settlements have greatly diminished with affordable housing being available

Institutional

Intercultural appreciation has increased, civil society is stable and as balanced and addressed political struggles by elites People enjoy health, sharing technological innovation for community and family unit implementation becomes a norm

The second 15 year development plan is implemented and regulated, previous developments are safeguarded, assessed and strengthened Broader social and cultural issues gain importance, heritage is incorporated in aquaponics development The third 15 year urban development plan is drawn up

2035-2020 PRIMARY THEME: COMMUNITY EDUCATION & SUSTAINABLE URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE Description Dhaka has exploded and is now in its most dense phase. Rapid growth has been combined with the wide spread introduction of aquaponics. Existing wetlands on the former periphery have been preserved and partially utilized for pond aquaponics. New developments see the first aquaponic towers enriching their landscape. Schools, hospitals and public buildings have incorporated aquaponics. Aquaponics is now entrenched in education. Community assemblies Technological

meet monthly and provide outreach programs to share skills. The first generation of engineers trained to construct and maintain the aquaponic installations have graduated and work to realize the community works. By now aquaponics is intrinsically linked to equity and inclusion. It is a vital platform for citizen involvement in urban development. Vulnerable communities learn to work together to implement changes for sustainability and abundance.

Roof top aquaponics are introduced with 75% of all newly built buildings

Wasteland is installed with large scale temporary aquaponics (polytunnel)

The �irst vertical installations are introduced with new urban developments with closed energy and water systems Small scale DIY models are improved and made more resilient systems and smarter energy generation

Societal

Aquaponic installations begin to be developed for sale by industry, they are used for medicinal plants as well as nutrition and protein Rooftop aquaponics continue to be implemented, abandoned buildings are used to install vertical aquaponic systems

The �irst wave of widespread commercial aquaponics installations takes place from the basis of the neighborhood assemblies and with support from NGOs. People are the power behind this with cross cultural cooperation being rewarded Education institutions at high school, primary school and university begin teaching aquaponics

Women in poverty are educated in mechanical and civil engineering with the clause that they will participate in designing and implementing larger aquaponic installations in Dhaka Civil society begins to stabilize and expand, grassroots program expand and explode throughout the new settlements Every person who is trained in aquaponics use trains 10 more people People bene�it from the healthy produce, mortality rates decrease Institutional

Appreciation and cooperation with the country is facilitated by aquaponics programs

The massive in�lux of people to the city all come in touch with aquaponic technique and educational programs

The �irst 15 year aquaponics plan is implemented in this period and is adjusted to unknown circumstances that occur Further safeguards are introduced to prevent speculation and exploitation of land and property Neighborhood and City wide assemblies are formalized into legal bodies

The �irst generation of aquaponics trained engineers run the development projects

Education and health care institutions incorporate aquaponics instrumentally for education and health

A second 15 plan is drawn up to further propagate aquaponics in urban development, lessons are incorporated form the �irst generation plans

implementing larger aquaponic installations in Dhaka

Civil society begins to stabilize and expand, grassroots program expand and explode throughout the new settlements Every person who is trained in aquaponics use trains 10 more people People bene�it from the healthy produce, mortality rates decrease Institutional

Appreciation and cooperation with the country is facilitated by aquaponics programs

The massive in�lux of people to the city all come in touch with aquaponic technique and educational programs

The �irst generation of aquaponics trained engineers run the development projects

Education and health care institutions incorporate aquaponics instrumentally for education and health

A second 15 plan is drawn up to further propagate aquaponics in urban development, lessons are incorporated form the �irst generation plans

2020-2015 PRIMARY THEME: LAND USE MANAGEMENT, REGULATION & ACTIVATING & INITIATING PARTNERSHIPS Description In this period immediate distress of informal settlements are alleviated by training people in these areas in small scale Do It Yourself aquaponics. To guard health, managers are assigned to protect the system in these households. Community assemblies are formed to train one other and share progress.

Societal

Technological

S P

Also special groups that introduce new comers to the city to this technology. Simultaneously commercial aquaponic projects pop up and are wide-spread in the center of Dhaka and in empty plots and buildings. Long term strategies, regulations and legislation are conceived for the integration of aquaponics in planning.

Small scale aquaponics cater to times of �lood and drought for people who are precarious with wind power fuelling them and waste water used to run the installations Corn is grown at a community level with aquaponics to supply �ish food Aquaponics cater for nutrition and proteien needs

Women from the unplanned settlements and from the inner city are targeted as the �irst group of social entrepreneurs

Intercultural neighborhood education assemblies are set up to educate on aquaponics and help manage the installa ions in communities

Institutional

Grassroots groups are mobilized to help implement land use and property law changes

Local groups in Bangladesh join with water rights groups in India to pressure Indian and Bangladeshi Government to protect surface water The Municipality of the City of Dhaka becomes the sole land owner of all land within and to the outer limits of the city of Dhaka, current owners are given a lease on the ground they stand on, future owners are also extended a lease

- There are strict rent restrictions set upon slum areas and at the same time incentives to realize affordable housing in the area in public private partnerships with the current tenants - A 15 year plan for the development with the integration of aquaponics in Dhaka is drawn up

- An act to protect wetlands is drawn identifying the current ecosystem. A protections plan is incorporate in this where settlements bene�it �inically form maintaining the wetlands and protecting them - An agreement is made between key NGOs and the local government to monitor developments and to assist with enforcing regulations and supporting technological know-how in a widespread fashion

- social entrepreneurship is introduced to facilitate the of aquaponics in the city, contracts include that a percentage of all pro�its will go to reinvesting in education of engineers to locally design and construct larger aquaponic installations - A government run program is introduced in public institutions to educate people on aquaponics

- NGO/ community partnerships are made to form the community assemblies that share knowledge and goals about aquaponics - International agreements are reached on controlling surface water pollu

The �irst commercial aquaponic rooftop installations are realized widespread across the built environment with closed water and energy cycles

Finances - Investment from aid organistsions and impletation as a business model. - Women out of poverty as the group of entrepeneurs of the first aquaponic systems. - Create an accountabilty system.

- Fundraise and take a share of all international aid for agriculure in Dhaka for the implementation of the first large scale installations.

- Make a clause that a small percentage of profit of first businesses go to education of local women in engineering (civil and mechanical) with the requirement that they help set up the first larger scale aquaponic systems. Figure 10: Aquaponics for Dhaka - financial map

INVEST IMPACT

to achieve measurable SOCIAL VALUE alongside FINANCIAL RETURN

to achieve SOCIAL VALUE

to achieve FINANCIAL VALUE

social-business profits are reinvested mission-driven potentially for-profit self-sustaining

purely charitable market based revenue stream

NOT-FOR-PROFIT

mainstream investors corporate philanthropy

FOR-PROFIT

*adapted from J. Kingston Venturesome

TRANSITION OF MODELS TOWARDS 21ST CENTURY Economic correction

Network as greatest value source

Networked globalism

Cultivation of the edge

Displaced market equilibrium

Accumulation of social capital

New business models

Alignment instead of hierarchy

Community power structures

Responsible use of shared value *adapted from http://dachisgroup.com

BUSINESS MODEL GOVERNMENTAL LONE

DEVELOPMENT FUNDS international aid

financial revenues PRIVATE PROFESSIONALS PUBLIC PROFESSIONALS NGO CONSTRUCTION PROFESSIONALS

knowledge labour space labour implementation labour

LOCAL GOVERNMENT OWNERS RESIDENTS

non financial revenues

- The first larger scale businesses are obliged to reinvest a part of their porfit in education of underpriveledged groups and to the further development of aquaponic businesses.

- Project this model until food sovereignity is reached in the area.

Abundant Dhaka 2065

Uttara

Korail

Concept of the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;reurbanisation of Dhaka Cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

DHAKA 2065 50% of rooftops quaponics 1 in 20 buildings aquaponics 75% of rooftops quaponics 1 in 10 buildings aquaponics special preservation wetlands 1 in 10 buildings aquaponics 75% of all rooftops aquaponics 100% self sufficent zones with 50% food production aquaponics high biodiversity

2015-2035

2015-2020

2020-2065

Chapter VI_Vision Elaboration & Action Agenda Abundant Dhaka 2065 Introduction The previous chapter illustrated the steps needed to take for our future vision to become reality. These steps were researched in detail and many factors were taken into account. In order to reflect further upon our backcasting analysis and proposals, two experts were interviewed to discuss the future vision. These interviews helped us to define the feasibility of the pathways we proposed, and find possible improvements on the societal, technical and institutional processes. Part of their feedback has already been incorporated in our proposed the backcasting pathways. Here we go further to define drivers, barriers and - last but not least - a short term action plan on what should be the first step right now to reach an Abundant Dhaka in 2065.

Expert Interviews

Two experts on our topic were interviewed: a Dutch PhD in hydrology, Frank Smits and a Bangladeshi professor of agriculture Md. Abdus Salam. Mr. Smits is working for Waternet, a Dutch water company that covers the entire water cycle from the treatment of waste water and provision of drinking water to cleaning and maintaining levels of surface water. Professor Salam works at the Bangladesh Agricultural University. He is currently conducting research on aquaponics. The following is a short reflection upon the interviews. A complete report of the interviews is located in the Appendix “Interviews” section.

The interviewees showed radically different positions. Mr. Smits was quite sceptical on the idea of moving farming activities to the city, whereas Prof. Salam (whom is based in Bangladesh) understood the necessity of providing direct sources of protein and nutrition in order to meet the needs of the people living in urban areas like Dhaka. Mr. Smits also didn’t believe in the economic viability of the vision and wanted to see a business model. Prof. Salam on the other hand, is already doing research on small scale aquaponics, and sees positive financial outcomes of this idea. He believes that it will be possible

- and even essential - to implement the aquaponics technique somehow on a large scale. A big boundary is the political issue in Bangladesh, which counterworks developments like those proposed in the vision. Below, the feasibility and possible changed needed for our future vision are presented. Parts are based on the interviews.

Feasibility and possible changes needed

A lot of research have been done to create a structured overview of the complex socio-technical system. Part of the backcasting has been done after the interviews were done, so some comments have already been elaborated upon in Chapter 5. While reflecting on the future vision (partly through interviews), we noticed that we quite naïve on how things work in political Bangladesh, like what are the real barriers to regulating land use and what obstacles are there for social entrepreneurship? Perhaps the most important next step is to do more in depth research on the political and regulatory situation in Bangladesh, to make a better match with our future vision and current trends and processes. Unfortunately, this was out of the scope of this report. If we were to improve this analysis of our complex socio-technical system, we would need to react on the specific and real political barriers. Societal

In light of the interviews, a danger became apparent in our vision. Bangladesh has a population of over 150 million people. 80% of these people, despite rapid urbanization, still live in the countryside. 50% of the agrarian population are landless peasants. While the cities becomea more attractive and prosperous place to be, there is a risk that more will migrate to the city seeking opportunities. Franks Smits was sceptical about the image of concentrating people in a small area, and as he said; the more people close to each other, the bigger the problems (poor

health, sanitation, food). But this assumption seems also run contrary to what Jane Jacobs observed in the ‘Economy of Cities’ (Jacobs, 1972), Jacobs explains that cities are centres of innovation because of the great problems they face, and secondly that it is cities and not the countryside that improves agriculture. However, it is obvious that the problems of the countryside need to be addressed simultaneously. It is essential to integrate irrigation practises, rain water harvesting, and low-technology surface water sanitation processes. Along with improving the social and cultural networks, market and employment opportunities.

Strength

Our vision for the implementation of aquaponics is feasible right now because of the many different scales it can be applied on. Rooftop aquaponics and vertical farming are part of a realistic future. Frank Smits, however, warned that larger buildings need strong foundations, which is not always possible in delta-areas. This will mean a demand for new civil technology. If the call for city farming grows, vertical farms should be built (1) with a very strong foundation which is costly or (2) implemented with techniques that have a lighter construction, like fogponics/aeroponics.

Opportunities

Technological

Institutional

On the level of water management, aquaponics was presented as a platform for social entrepreneurship and a motivating heart for sustainable development. Urban planning processes are an important part of this. There is an acute need for formal development in Dhaka. But as said the problem lies in the political situation in speculation, exploitation and corruption. How best to redistribute land and redirect land rents to common good needs to be investigated so that formal urban development can become possible. Our proposals are based on ground lease solutions that worked in Europe but may not work in Bangladesh. Other traditions could prove more useful in addressing the need for changing land use. Land speculation, rent exploitation and corruption are the biggest barriers for the widespread integration of the future vision and urban development itself in Dhaka.

Possible drivers and barriers – brief SWOT of aquaponics

Healthy/organic

Flexibility in production

- - -

Solution for various, complex problems Human labour required Closed cycle

Weaknesses

- Human labour has to be specially educated and stimulated - Administration structure required – education/urban policies -

External funding needed to initiate

- Equity of food and water access through the business model -

Jobs and activities for lower-class society

Urban development facilitator

Complex problems can be solved

Threats -

Land use mismatch

Financial boundaries without support

- Political situation and local governmental fragmentation as boundary -

Ethnic clashes

The biggest boundary to be overcome is the political situation in Bangladesh as well as finding a way to stimulate inhabitants to cooperate.Powerful actors must to be convinced that aquaponics can be a solution for current crysis.

Action Plan

The first line of action is to tackle the existing problems in Bangladesh and to align the development NGOs governments and communities behind the project. The most challenging immediate problems relate to water management. Agriculture accounts for the largest part of the groundwater depletion, however the biggest problem is not agriculture itself but the fact that surface water can’t fulfil it. The major underlying problems remain :

- Pollution of the surface water and groundwater

(arsenic, poor sanitation, salinization) - Depletion of groundwater

- Equity (the undemocratic access to clean water) Short term (2015-2020)

The first action should be to create an environment in which the first organisational changes can be realised. NGO’s need to work together with the government to create awareness by drawing up clear plans on both urban development and education. A viable business model needs to be developed included with social entrepreneurship to motivate the stakeholders to implement the aquaponics technique. The incentive should come from NGO’s who need to convince the government. From there, education and job offers can introduce the aquaponics as a concept to the people. Also NGO’s start with communities by building the first rooftop aquaponics installation and small scale aquaponics: these techniques aren’t costly so should be within the budget of the NGO. Simultaneously possible regulations to prevent speculation and exploitation of land in Dhaka need to be developed to allow for sustainable development. Medium term (2020-2050)

Because aquaponics has become more involved in urban development and people are aware of the technique, there is a risk that more people will migrate to the city than planned. This could cause other unplanned problems, therefore, the city municipality must be prepared for this and develop a risk-assessment. The growth of the aquaponics technique should not only be vertical but more ‘horizontal’ than explained in Chapter 5. The complete densification of the city area of Dhaka is planned rather for 2020-2035 instead of 2035-2050. NGO’s keep staying involved to steer the changes, by maintaining a friendship with the Bangladesh government and by creating awareness of aquaponics in areas outside the city centre. Ecology needs to be strictly safe guarded and incentives for protection need to be incorporated into the informal urban development processes. Long term (2050-2065)

Aquaponics should be fully integrated into urban life. Buildings are both for living and farming. There should be a choice whether residents

want to live vertical or live more outside the dense centre, without being shut off from the food-chain created by aquaponics.

Reflection on achievements and method

By using the method of backcasting a future vision could be realised that would fail otherwise by possible barriers. Frank Smits for instance focused on the economic viability of the system, which is the biggest boundary to overcome in changing agricultural trends. Dickson Despommier (2009) on the other hand, only focuses on a future in which vertical farming takes over the entire agricultural sector. He focuses on the problems of today and on solutions for tomorrow, but does not elaborate the steps needed in order to arrive in that future. The backcasting method ensures that a future vision is created and all the in-between steps are thought out to overcome possible barriers and forget about current limitations. This is maybe less realistic than forecasting but it is more creative and it can generate a path to start a more sustainable system. Due to the very complex socio-technical system that has been chosen in this report, the backcasting process was fairly challenging and plenty of research was required in order to make a realistic pathway. During these explorations the approach must not have turned into forecasting from the approach of backcasting.

The main problem lies in how to accelerate residents create this new future together. Cooperation is crucial and more in-depth research on the political situation is necessary to achieve small scale awareness. The vision presented in this report tried to be as realistic as possible, but we are aware of threads that come with addressing a complex system with many stakeholders involved.

Chapter VII_Conclusion This report described a future vision for an ‘Abundant Dhaka 2065’ and pathways to reach it. The following question was a central guide to the research : “How might the needs for health, prosperity, good water management and equity for the future populations of city of Dhaka, Bangladesh be met through the implementation of aquaponics?”

What has been found is that the process for widespread implementation of aquaponics in institutions and society is every bit as interesting as the technology itself, if not more so. Aquaponics turned out to solve more than just the decrease of groundwater demand. Our future vision, could it not address the whole groundwater crisis, provided an implementation model on which other technologies for sustainable water management can also be incorporated in urban development and spread through community education and economic empowerment.

It creates a vision in which agriculture has a new form without soil and without the need to deplete fresh water sources. Where dependency on water is changed while living-conditions are improved with a wealth of incentives in the present and in the future as well. Aquaponics was presented as a platform for social entrepreneurship and a motivating heart for sustainable development to meet the need for health, prosperity, good water management and equity for the future population in the city of Dhaka. The backcasting model of the desired future in this report is a system applicable worldwide.

Source: Prof. Md. Abdus Salam personal collection

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Dees, J. G. (1998). The Meaning of “Social Entrepreneurship”. In M. a. P. Haas (Ed.), (pp. 1-6). Stanford, USA: Graduate School of Business Stanford University. Ekkers, P. (2002). Van volkshuisvesting naar woonbeleid. Den Haag: Sdu Uitgevers. Rashid, M. (2002). Housing at Uttara Model Town in Dhaka City (pp. 18). Dhaka, Bangladesh. Books

Barlow, M. (2008). Blue covenant : the global water crisis and the coming battle for the right to water. New York: New Press : Distributed by W.W. Norton. Chellaney, B. (2013). Water, peace, and war : confronting the global water crisis. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Cooper, K. (2013) Sustainable Water, Introduction. Handbook of Sustainable Engineering, (Kaufman, J. Kun-Mo, L.) New York: Springer Jacobs, J. (1972) The economy of cities. Harmondsworth: Penguin

Kauffman, J., & Lee, K.-M. (2013). Handbook of

Sustainable Engineering Online resource. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. Rashid, M. (2002). Housing at Uttara Model Town in Dhaka City (pp. 18). Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Quist, J. (2013). Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development. In J. Kauffman & K.-M. Lee (Eds.), Handbook of Sustainable Engineering (pp. 749-771). Dordrecht: Springer Science and Buisness Media. Ward, C. (1997). Reflected in water : a crisis in social responsibility. London ; Washington D.C.: Cassell.

F. Smits, personal communication, 01-05-2014

Dr. Salam, personal communication, 05-05-2014 Websites

Build an aquaponics system for small yards and houses, retrieved May 5th, 2014 from:

http://www.instructables.com/id/Build-a-vertical-aquaponic-veggie-fish-farm-for-/

Designs vertical farming, Retrieved April 30th, 2014 from:

Electronic Articles

http://www.verticalfarm.com/designs

Kabir, S., Khan, E.A., (2013) Water Sensitive Urban Design: Dhaka City

h t t p : / / w w w. n e w g e o g r a p h y. c o m / c o n tent/003004-evolving-urban-form-dhaka

Second International Workshop on Design in Civil and Environmental Engineering, retrieved from: http://www.mkthompson.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/DCEE-2013-3-Kabirand-Khan.pdf

UNEP - United Nations Environmental Program (2010), Freshwater Shortage. Retrieved from http://www.unep.org/dewa/giwa/publications/finalreport/freshwater_shortage.pdf

Water Wealth (2012) Water wealth: a briefing paper on the state of groundwater management in Bangladesh, Retrieved from http://www. cseindia.org/userfiles/groundwater_management_bangladesh.pdf WWAP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; World Water Assessment Programm (2012) - United Nations World Water Development Report edition 4. Retrieved from http:// www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/environment/water/wwap/wwdr/wwdr4-2012/

Evolving Urban Form Dhaka, retrieved april 26th 2014 from: Farmer on the Roof, Retrieved May 5th, 2014, from: http://lifestyle.inquirer.net/156122/farmer-onthe-roof

Inapro, Retrieved May 5th, 2014 from: http:// www.inapro-project.eu/

http://www.stuartmatthews.eu/index.php/ stories/in-search-of-hope/ Retrieved april 26th 2014 Methods of Aquaponics. Retrieved May 5th, 2014, from: http://aquaponics.com/page/methods-of-aquaponics Plant Chicago, Retrieved May 5th, 2014, from: http://www.plantchicago.com/

News articles

Ashraf, K. K. (2010). A New Dhaka is Possible. Forum: A monthly publication of the Daily Star, 3(3), 22. Kazi Khaleed Ashraf (2010, March) A new Dhaka is possible, The Daily Star - retrieved from http://archive.thedailystar.net/ Mushfique Wadud (2011, August 15) Dhaka turns to rainwater harvesting to ease water crisis, Thomson Reuters Foundation, retrieved from www.trust.org Interviews

Source: Prof. Md. Abdus Salam personal collection

APPENDIX

Chapter III_Dhaka City Bangladesh is inhabited by 150 million people in 7 districts. Dhaka district: 18 million residents. Dhaka City’s population is currently around 14,6-15 million, which has doubled the past 20 years (www.citypopulation.de, 2014) making it the 8th largest city in the world. In the district that covers more land than Greater Dhaka, around 3.6 million people are considered rural.

Figures on population evolvement and densities In Dhaka (Evolving Urban form Dhaka, 2014)

Annual average temperature of the district is maximum 34.5°C, minimum 11.5°C; average annual rainfall 1931-2100 mm (87% between May and October). In 2011 DWASA (Dhaka’s water body) achieved continuous water supply and a reduction of water losses of 14%. However, the city is lacking 300 million liters of drinking water daily. Currently 82% of the city’s water supply is abstracted from groundwater (ibid). What is more, migration to Dhaka and slum dwellers cannot afford water and electricity supplied informally and on many occasions illegally by a mass of cables and pipes which run into the slums. These residents have no choice but to relocate to the city from the opportunity less rural settings. They usually become day laborers, with their wages covering rent and food for their families (Matthews, 2011).

Chapter III_Trends and Developments Analysis on the global scale Population -Predictions are that there will be an 40-50% population growth in the next 50 years, resulting in a global population of 10 billion people -Nowadays over half of the world population lives in urban areas (WHO/Unicef, 2010), and predicted is that by the year 2050 this will be 80% (Despommier, 2010). Agriculture

Agriculture accounts for 70% of global freshwater withdrawals (up to 90% in fast-growing economies) (UNEP, 2010)

Groundwater depletion leads to salinization, and agricultural land is becoming too saline to support important crops

Using waste water for irrigation, and excrement as fertilizer, contributes to human diseases both direct and indirect (through polluted water) (Despommier, 2010) Because each person requires a minimum of 1,500 calories a day, civilization will have to cultivate another 2.1 billion acres of land - if farming continues to be practiced as it is today (Despommier, 2010). Already 80% of the available agricultural land it used (Despommier, 2010)

Over-extraction of aquifers is becoming severe in many areas that depend heavily on irrigated agriculture (UNEP, 2010) Densely populated Land-use changes, including deforestation and the cultivation of wetlands, affect the water budget, thus causing floods or droughts in many regions. (UNEP, 2010) Industry

Industrial processes pollute both surface water and ground water (waste water, chemicals) Climate

Groundwater depletion leads to a change in the natural eco-systems, leading to climate change. This climate change leads to changes in â&#x20AC;&#x201C; for example- rainfall and temperature, contributing to the water-crisis (vicious circle) (Despommier, 2010)

Analysis: Bangladesh

Population Rapid Increase urban population at 12% per annum

Lack of sanitation leads to contamination of water. More people demands for better sanitation. Agriculture

Agriculture is a primary source of employment of Bangladesh, half of those employed as rural workers are landless peasants, and this group is increasing

Over threeâ&#x20AC;?quarters of women in the labor force work in the agricultural sector. Despite patriarchy 59% of women in Bangladesh work 12% of all agricultural products are exported

Primary crop is rice. Also wheat production is increasing. Industry

Annual economic growth of 6â&#x20AC;?7% per year

Agriculture is a primary source of employment of Bangladesh, half of those employed as rural workers are landless peasants, and this group is increasing Largest export are textiles and clothing, largest exporter in the world after China, but poorest paid workers in the world, (these workers are also women) Fishing is an important subsistence and livelihood Climate

Climate change also accounts to natural disasters like flooding, causing salinization (Water Wealth, 2012) Urbanization Trends in Bangladesh

Cities are very dense in the beginning and as they grow through time their density decreases. As the periphery develops the center de-concentrates and then accordingly redevelops. The local government is now responsible for 60% of the formal development of the city of Dhaka. Much of the informal development is now due to the inability of the government to provide affordable housing to migrants seeking a better life in the city. These informal settlements do not have adequate access to water, they do not have sanitation and they are prone to climate related catastrophes.

Lack of adequate infrastructure and maintenance of existing infrastructure are also trends strangling Dhaka, rapidly polluting and depleting its ground water supply. The reason housing is unaffordable and formal development is slow is that speculators have bought up land hoping to profit form government developments making development too expensive to provide affordable housing, the land on which slums form are run by slum landlords who charge high rents to live in very poor conditions. By pairing aquaponics with urban development we can suggest the formal changes that will address the unsustainabilities in these trends. We â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;back castâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; that aquaponics will provide a community infrastructure with profit incentives to contribute to maintaining, adding to and providing city infrastructure. By linking the implementation of aquaponics to government housing development and by involving international actors whom already provide aid to Bangladesh we can redistribute the land through public ownership and long term land rents. Thus enabling the wide spread implementation and integration of aquaponics but also the building of affordable housing and the protection of the existing ecosystems. Aquaponics can then develop with the city improving the periphery and redeveloping the core, increasing in efficiency with time and with the development of the city.

Chapter IV_Aquaponics Aquaponics is a method of sustainable food production. The word itself is portmanteau; aquaponics is a system in which conventional aquaculture (aquating animals rearing) and hydroponic technology (soilless plant breeding in a nutrient-rich solution) complement each other. The idea is that water from the aquatic system is fed to a hydroponic system. The aquatic effluents (like natural waste matters of fish) are important nutrients for plants. Plants filter the water, which is then recirculated back into the aquaculture system. This means raising both fish and plants together in a balanced system (Menon, 2013). Because it is a circulating system, less water is needed to keep the system running. This system is also in no need of soil. The need of unnatural, (and even toxic) fertilizers is significantly decreased, and because the system combines two different techniques, it is more efficient in use. These reasons account for a sustainable system. There are different types of aquaponics. The best known are the deep-water-raft aquaponics (in which rafts float on water), NFT (Nutrient Film Technique, in which plants ae grown in long narrow channels), Recirculating/closed-loop aquaponics (solid media in a container that is flooded by water) and Reciprocating aquaponics (solid media in a container that is alternately drained and flooded) (“Methods of Aquaponics”, 2014). Similar technologies to aquaponics are for example aeroponics (in which plants are grown in air or mist without the use of a subsurface, not in symbiose with fish), fogponics (advanced form of aeroponics) and raft aquaponics (plants grown on polysterene boards/rafts that float on water).

Current aquaponics technology ranges from fairly cheap backyard designs (small scale) to technologically advanced commercial production (large scale) . Aquaponics can be combined on both smaller scale and larger scale with rooftop farming or vertical farming, such as sky-scrapers implemented with aquaponics technology (Despommier, 2011).

Aquaponics – small scale

Small-scale aquaponics is mostly designed for people’s backyard. Menon et al (2013) proposed a very simple system that is economically affordable by a middle class family in India. The idea was focused on the urban population that is constraint by time and space, and contributed to a sustainable household development. The model was based on a grow-bed system, built up with a plastic box and PVC tubes. This system could grow 13 plants in an area of 0.27m^2, with 55 liters of water used. This was compared to normal cultivation, in which 13 plants need at least 4m^2 for complete growth with about 100 liters water pér dáy (Menon, 2013).

Simple small scale aquaponic system (Menon, 2013)

Another simple and cheap small scale aquaponics system (“Build a aquaponics system for small yards and houses” (2014))

Aquaponics: Medium scale Rooftop Farming A lot of initiatives have started to implement aquaponics in urban areas. For example the Rooftop Farming initiatives in New York, Detroit, Rotterdam, Montreal, Tokyo, and now Singapore. The difference with rooftop gardening is that these initiatives are not just a hobby; they have a commercial purpose (“Farmer on the Roof”, 2014). Urban Farming

More initiatives are coming up, trying to use old buildings as new room for urban farming. for example The German initiative ‘Efficient City Farming’ (ECF) is busy on implementing aquaponics in urban areas. Raft Aquaponics

As mentioned before, raft aquaponics is based on using floating rafts, on which vegetation is grown. There have already been experiments with raft aquaponics in Bangladesh, for medium scale commercial use. This experiment proved that aquaponics is an environmental friendly fish and vegetable production system, for urban use (Salam, 2013).

Aquaponics: Large scale The Plant

Now that aquaponics is becoming more known, models of large scale implementations have been proposed. Already existing large scale systems are generally built in old buildings that are suitable for the constructions of a large aquaponics system. A good example is ‘The Plant’; a non-profit organization that connects sustainable food production and economic development. Their community supported agriculture program demonstrates different types of farms inside an old building in Chicago (“Plant Chicago”, 2014) .

An example of a larger scale aquaponics system (Plant Chicago, 2014)

Plant Chicago’s own model on how to build a large scale aquaponics system (Plant Chicago, 2014)

INAPRO Another large scale aquaponics project, still under construction, is the collaborative project INAPRO (“Innovative model & demonstration based water management for resource efficiency in integrated multitrophic agriculture and aquaculture systems”). This project is funded by the European Union (Inapro, 2014).

Dickson Despommier

The “founder” of vertical farming, Dickson Despommier, is one of the most visionary people when it comes to future agricultural ideas. Despommier is convinced that agriculture is a destructive process and that innovative ideas –like vertical farming – are inescapable (Despommier, 2011). Despommiers website www.verticalfarm.com shows designs of large

scale vertical farms, in which all kinds of sustainable farming – like aquaponics – can be implemented.

An example of a large scale vertical farm included with different types of agriculture, like aquaponics. Design “VF - Type O” by Oliver Foster (Design Vertical Farm, 2014)

Aquaponics and Education Hart et al (2013) researched the idea of using aquaponics as an educational tool. Aquaponics has an interdisciplinary nature and building it requires technological skills. Aquaponics involves chemistry, physics, biology and sustainability, which makes it suitable for educating scientific theories. The research used in depth interviews with educator who had used an aquaponics system in North America, whether this combinatioect may also make an aquaponics system challenging to implement and manage. They presented five guidelines for a successful integration of aquaponics in education needed (Hart, 2013).

Chapter V_Backcasting Support and Elaboration To explain the backcasting analysis we have prepared the following text which emphasis the primary stakeholders and the processes we envision to implement aquaponics for sustainable development.

Major Processes and Actors: Technology as a vehicle to sustainable development

Key processes in our back casting analysis are that of urban evolution trends and social entrepreneurship. We back cast and link the wide spread implementation of aquaponics with the formal and informal urban Evolution of Dhaka. We envision social entrepreneurship playing a central role in role in bringing this about. The key actors in linking urban evolution to social entrepreneurship are locally entrenched NGOs.

Since independence, NGOs have played a key role in the development of Bangladesh (Hague, 2002) we see this long standing relationship with National and local government along with local communities as a promising opportunity to implement the widespread use and exploitation of aquaponics. International NGOs form a link between the formal aspects of the government and local community structures. And have grown in power over the last years as the power of the State has diminished. (Hague, 2002) They are a key party in helping to achieve the changes needed at an institutional level in terms of Urban planning and for setting up social entrepreneurship at a community level for stable and sustainable urban evolution. NGOs are also backcast as the catalyst that can provide the financing for the first small and medium scale aquaponics installations. “these organizations are already deep-rooted in the country, they have systematic and comprehensive institutional structures, and they encompass a significant percentage of the rural population, especially women. Although these NGOs cover diverse developmental functions—ranging from education and health care to leadership training and income-generation activities—the most common practice is to provide collateral-free credit or loans to the landless and the underprivileged. The nationwide scope of these development NGOs, and their involvement in the socioeconomic activities and services formerly handled by the state or private enterprises, have considerable implications for the power structure” (Hague, 2002, p. 417)

The Bangladeshi government relies on NGOs because it has been unstable since independence in 1971, even knowing a long period of military rule between 1975 and 1990. Like the military regime before it the current precarious democracy counts on NGOs to connect with the grassroots of this extremely poor and dense country. (Hague, 2002, p. 413) In our future vision Bangladesh and Dhaka know a stable government, can self-manage and is no longer dependent on international aid form governmental organizations or NGOs. The process to improve the situation of the people of Dhaka and create greater democracy and financial independence on a systemic level, though beginning with on the ground work form NGOs, would eventually lead to their becoming obsolete. Replaced instead by a stable civil society that puts humanitarian and egalitarian goals at its heart. We backcast this by using a social entrepreneurship model. But first let’s address the impediments to formal intervention for sustainable urban evolution and maintenance. Land and property speculation, and the exploitation of slum dwellers by landlords are two formal elements that form major frustration barriers to sustainable urban evolution of Dhaka (Rashid, 2002). As we explained in Chapter Three, these aspects make formal development of things such as housing simply put unaffordable. These speculation and exploitation also compound the problems around the protection and maintenance of ecology and public infrastructure. Without development of public works to generate income, a vicious cycle of decline entails, making current infrastructure ever more difficult to finance. For any Urban plan to be successful it is clear that these issues need to be addressed. In order to enable

control of urban planning by local government us backcast that a ground lease system will be introduced.

One of the reasons to establish a ground lease system is to benefit from the expected increase in land values and to capture these increases for the community.(City of Amsterdam Development Corporation, 2003, p. 13)

When the city of Amsterdam for instance faced exponential explosion of its population around the time of the industrial revolution in the late 1800s it was able to use its ground lease system to build housing and to address the infrastructure problems that were causing early death and wide spread disease. The ground lease system when tied to the new housing law was used to improve the living standards of its poor, working class and middle class populations by developing the city according to regulations on building, infrastructure and spatial quality, such as the introduction of public space. (Ekkers, 2002) The basic idea behind our back casting scenario would be to include the development of aquaponics as a technology for public good along with these positive planned and regulated urban developments. We backcast the Institutionalization of the implementation of aquaponics through planning law. The government purchases all land in Dhaka and its periphery, offering long term leases to the current owners. Regulating law and financial incentives facilitate this. In the course of hits action every building owner is stimulated to develop aquaponic on their roof tops. While slums are redeveloped with strong participation from their current inhabitants. International aid helps with the land purchase and NGOs help redirect the current aid to this end and monitor against corruption. Along with training and setting up groups to manage and over see the aquaponics installations. A percentage of the income raised through leases are backcast to be redirected to larger scale aquaponics installations and water management, the rest going to public development projects and maintaining and improving other infrastructure for equity and sustainability. Why NGOs would be interested in redirecting aid to this end is that one of their primary roles since the 1970s in Bangladesh is in helping the landless poor.(Hague, 2002) This is the other aspect that makes urban evolution right now unsustainable. There is an unmanageable influx of people to Dhaka, whose popultiaon is growing at 12,5% per annum, this is largely because 50% of people living in the countryside are landless (Hague, 2002), they seek opportunity in the city (Ullah, 2004). Because affordable housing is unavailable they are forced to build their own settlements on the periphery of the city or resort to living in a slum. Their need for better housing, nutrition, clean water, water defenses and economic prospects is seen as another opportunity for the implementation of aquaponics and the work of NGOs.

Social Entrepreneurship

In our future vision we included a market analysis, showing that Aquaponics can be used for commercial gain and as well as cater to the needs of the very poor and precarious, especially in times of drought and famine. (Salam, 2014) Aquaponics have much different potential across many different scales, from small scale production to high efficient large scale production and integration in the spatial fabric of the city. The most important aspect for technical implementation, because of the flexibility and scope of the system is not so much material, but ‘know how’ and the ability and security to maintain the system. (Hughey, 2005) We backcast that the profit and gains from aquaponics be invested and tied to social equity, inclusion, cross ethnic and cultural exchange, ecological diversity and community empowerment. So the commerce involved will help individuals but a percentage must always return to help the common good. For this a model of social entrepreneurship is envisioned. The perspective of a social entrepreneur can be described as follows: “For social entrepreneurs, the social mission is explicit and central. This obviously affects how social entrepreneurs perceive and assess opportunities. Mission-related impact becomes the central criterion, not wealth creation. Wealth is just a means to an end for social entrepreneurs. With business entrepreneurs, wealth creation is a way of measuring value creation “(Dees, 1998) Social entrepreneurs are invested in bringing about social change.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Social entrepreneurs play the role of change agents in the social sector, by:

-Adopting a mission to create and sustain social value (not just private value),

-Recognizing and relentlessly pursuing new opportunities to serve that mission, -Engaging in a process of continuous innovation, adaptation, and learning, -Acting boldly without being limited by resources currently in hand, and

-Exhibiting a heightened sense of accountability to the constituencies served and for the outcomes created. (Dees, 1998) The benefit of NGOs working together with grassroots communities and immigrants is that a community infrastructure can be set up based on values outside mere wealth creation. And that the wealth that is created takes on a different role and meaning. NGOs will be instrumental in instigating social entrepreneurship and setting up community platforms. We backcast a wide range of different neighborhood assemblies responsible for making sure the social benefits and goals of the implementation of aquaponics are met. These assemblies meet under a city wide assembly umbrella. In the assemblies people will train one another and organize knowledge exchange. Because women are an especially vulnerable group in Bangladesh across all classes, we backcast women from all backgrounds playing a vital role in social entrepreneurship and been the initial target group for financial benefits of the new commercial aquaponic installations. In the beginning investing in the education of engineers and in the education of communities and cultural exchange will be of most importance. Later, once cross cultural education and community support is working, the city infrastructure will be a central goal and finally financial independence, meaning that Dhaka is able to expand and maintain its own sustainable city infrastructure, provide education and support cultural exchange and a strong civil society all originating with the mutual incentives of aquaponics at a motivating heart for development.

Chapter VI_Interviews Interview Frank Smits

01 May 2014, Faculty of Civil Engineering, TU Delft

This interview was arranged to ask Frank Smits – hydrologist at Waternet and PhD at the TU Delft – about groundwater, the global water-crisis, water harvesting and water filtration.

First, we started talking about the watercrisis, and our future vision on vertical farming (aquaponics) as a solution to the water-crisis in Bangladesh. He was quite skeptical on this idea, for two reasons. The first reason was that the groundwater crisis in Bangladesh has several causes, which he thought weren’t necessarily related to groundwater depletion. Bangladesh has a lot of problems with water salinization, and with water pollution (arsenic). Besides that, Dhaka has other troubles with water management because of the yearly floods and the monsoon. He questions whether vertical farming solves the depletion of groundwater. The second reason was that building vertical, means stuffing a lot of activity in a smaller area, increasing the density. He questioned why we should bring several activities – like farming- to the city. He had this unpleasant image of people living in vertical buildings, where food and water is produced in the same area, and he questioned whether it isn’t better if certain occupations were (re)distributed to places outside a city.

The next questions were on Frank Smits knowledge about Dhaka specifically, and the groundwater problem there. Again he answered that we have to be careful about our idea that the groundwater problem in Dhaka is caused by the abundant water use for agriculture. He said that the main problem in Dhaka is that the groundwater gets salinized, because it is a delta (next to the sea). Because it is a delta, you also need very strong foundation for tall buildings. Next to this, pollution of water could be a main problem in those areas. Mr. Smits isn’t expertised on the Indian/Bangladesh water culture (we thought he was, but that was a misunderstanding) so he couldn’t answer the questions which techniques he would recommend in Bangladesh to improve water safety and to prevent ground water depletion, or how to prevent from flooding. He does know examples from other countries where there is a groundwater problem, and ideas of preventing that. For example, in Belgium a semi-closed watersystem is used. Also Israel is busy on finding sustainable ways of reusing water: so water that’s been used for human use, and being reused for agriculture. http://www.mekorot. co.il/Eng/Activities/Pages/WastewaterTreatmentandReclamation.aspx In Barcelona, there’s been an efficient wateruse since the ‘60, after problems with water-salinization: http://www.swim-site.nl/pdf/swim21/pages_135_138.pdf For example in Singapore, there is a second waternet which is connected to saltwater. http:// www.earthmagazine.org/article/drinking-toilet-water-science-and-psychology-wastewater-recycling

Frank Smits is very much in favor of reusing water as much as possible, but than on a smaller scale, for example a city-scale or even on the scale of a household. For example he sketches the idea that people flush their toilets with water that’s being used already for –let’s saycooking or showering, or by using filtered waste water for agriculture as is done in Israel.

In most countries, water is being pumped or taken from a river, and used without reusing it. In Holland for example, there is no closed water-system, but the used water gets treated before it is discharged to the sea. The reason not to reuse water, is because there is enough water flowing in by the rivers, and because it is too costly to filter used until it meets our safety standards. A second reason is imago: would people want to drink treated waste water? Filtering water from medicines for examples is difficult, and the biggest challenge for using water from waste water is the filtering process. As just said, the filtering of certain chemicals (like medicines) isn’t that efficient/affordable enough to do so. The types of filtering that’s been used most commonly are ultrafiltration, ozone-treatment, reverse osmosis and disinfection.

So, to get back to the subject: vertical farming in Bangladesh, we explained that we need to find ways for harvesting rainwater so that it can be used in the vertical farms/aquaponics. This way, we don’t have to use groundwater. And this method is not only applicable to Bangladesh, but to other countries/cities as well. Mr. Smits isn’t that well known about rainwater-harvesting, but he knows that you have to find ways to store huge amounts of water underground, and pump it up when needed. Because Bangladesh has the monsoon, you need to find ways to store this water. This is possible in a way, but not easy. Furthermore, he suggested we take a look at “smart water solution” http://www.samsamwater.com/library. php, because this organization is busy on watermanagement in third world countries, and has an overview of different types of rainwater harvesting. This folder contains a lot of usable information: http://www.samsamwater.com/library/Smart_Water_Solutions_-_EN.pdf

But how to collect water, and what are different techniques for this? Mr. Smits says that it depends whether you talk about the countryside, or urban areas. He thinks that instead of moving the farms to the city, we should simply find a way to more efficiently use water on the countryside, to irrigate our lands. For example the “one drop per crop” method, where you use little tubes of water over your land, and release water drop by drop, so that no water gets spilled. Also, more efficient water use means farming ónly in places where this viable (places where there is enough rain), or do farming in more efficient buildings; these buildings don’t have to be vertical. http://www.fao.org/english/newsroom/focus/2003/water.htm

For techniques more based on urban areas, he refers to a book which we can probably get at the library of the TU. For the introduction of this book: http://www.citg.tudelft.nl/fileadmin/Faculteit/CiTG/Over_de_faculteit/Afdelingen/Afdeling_watermanagement/Secties/ gezondheidstechniek/Over_water/Boeken/doc/Drinkwater_principes_en_praktijk_2005. pdf We asked Mr. Smits to explain is skepticism on vertical farming to have a better understanding on his warnings. Again, he refers to the fact that he doesn’t understand why you should bring all this techniques to an urban area. For example, a problem the fact that the closer people are living together, and the less water is available, the bigger problems will get, because you have a more complex, dense system. When I say that urban farming also saves a lot on transportation costs, he agrees, but then the he raises his biggest question on vertical farming: how do you think this will ever be cost-effective? I disagree with him by saying that exactly thís question is the reason why these kinds of techniques aren’t being implemented, because people are always concerned with the economic part, and not the sustainable part of these beautiful ideas. He likes the fact that we are so ambitious and ideological, but still: he first wants to see a viable business model, so he gives us the question/ assignment: Make a Business model, where you sum the available water, the sustainability, CO2 footprint and the costs to build this technique. He wants us to be realistic, and thinks that we aren’t right now.

Interview Prof. Md. Abdus Salam

05 May 2014, Netherlands-Bangladesh through Skype

Abdus Salam is a professor in aquatics at the Bangladesh Agricultural University. He is currently doing research on aquaponics in Bangaldesh. How is the pollution and depletion of groundwater affecting agriculture and aquaculture in Bangladesh?

You can consider Dhaka a megacity and it develops without any city plans. So the groundwater installation and sewage system is massive but the system is not well developed. And the water treatment system is not good enough. Waste goes right into the river and made

the water polluted and therefore created a bad smell. People 1 kilometer of the riverside still notice this bad smell and the water cannot be used for any purposes. The water is so polluted and black in colour. fish actually do not exist in the river although in the past the river was full of fish thousands of people living on them. But not anymore, people cannot use the water. This is one problem. And if you happen to have fish, because a fish survived the pollution, it tastes really bad. The fish breeding ground does not exist anymore in the rivers. Water consumption of ground water is so massive that each year the water level goes down. And now installing from groundwater in Dhaka city is impossible. The supply water depends on water from that polluted river but bad smell will remain after purification. Is the pollution primarily from problems with sanitation or is it due to industry?

It is all together. We have various factories which use chemicals and infecting the rivers. Few industries are trying to install their own system to treat the water. It is monitored but regulations are really weak. The companies can give bribe to the inspector or police and they can get out of the situation easily. As the country needs industry desperately, it cannot be banned. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s why the industries cannot be blocked/stopped. In the country we have many transboundary rivers all coming from the borders, only 2 sources in Bangladesh. India also needs a lot of water so in dry period they divert the water for themselves so less flows to Bangladesh. We depend on groundwater for rice culture, irrigation, etc, therefore, in the countryside groundwater is also going down. More than 80% of the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ground water supplies is effected by arsenic pollution. There was a research on this issue and they are saying that many of the ground water is highly infected and you can use the water for washing but not for drinking consumption. Is the arsenic poisoning also affecting the groundwater or is it only for the surface water?

It is the groundwater which is polluted by arsenic poisoning in most parts of the country. Therefore, with the research findings government paint the tube well with red colour means water from that tube well can only use for washing purposes. Another type of tube well pint with green colour means water can be used for drinking and cooking. Which industry is causing the poisoning?

The ground water pollution is actually not from the industry. Underground aquifers are pressed too much, if you install water then the minerals, iron are getting into it easier. West Bengal of India has the same problem.

So what are other major challenges for cities in Bangladesh in relation to climate change and in your opinion can these challenges be overcome? There are many challenges. If you know the situation of Bangladesh, 45% of the land lies very low within one meter sea-level. If the oceans rise one meter then 17 percent of the country would go under water. In the dry months from February to April the northern parts are totally lack of water by contrast, southern part of the country can be flooded by saline water. People cannot grow any crops in their yards. As there is no flow in the rivers, hence, the salt water is pushed into the land. Therefore, salinization is another problem of climate change in the country. On the other hand, in summer country have enough rain and receive lots of water from India as they need to drain out the rain water which is causing floods in rainy season.

However, the inhabitants of Bangladesh are living with these for centuries. If you provide them with tools and ways to deal with the situation they would work on it. Recently there were two cyclones. We were working with some poor people who do not have any land and who were living on the river bank in the coastal area. Therefore, with the support from Planning Commission, Bangladesh I could train many families on bag gardening, fertilisers and seeds and saplings and tools to grow vegetables in their yard or backyard. They could reuse household waste water in the bag gardening, such as face and rice-washing water and cooking water in the dry season. Most of the families were able to grow vegetable grow vegetable

and consume. Even they can sift the bag in the high platform or on the roof of the house. That was a wonderful work combining academics with practice with the land less and climate refugees. When there was a high-tide, rain and cyclone and water surge. Was this enough for subsistence?

For another people I provided aquaponics. It was totally new to them. Even the kids could look after the system. After concluding the program, it turned to be a wonderful technology. In winter when there is not enough freshwater they get the water from ponds in aquaponics system. The farmers planted some vegetable available and popular in the area in addition to the supply which gave the best result. So this is aquaponics where people grow on the water on the ponds or the river itself or is this aquaponics soil-based on rooftops?

I put them in their backyards with tanks because the groundwater is salinized. I used some canal water and that irrigates into the vegetable bed. Although it was winter, vegetable production was good and fish production was moderate. They used their own choice aside of what I gave. This was also learning experience for me a well; new introductions with my system. The system was more flexible than you thought it could be, that is very interesting. Do you think aquaponics can be introduced on the larger scale? Is there a way that aquaponics could make a difference in such an enormous city? Like how would it need to be implemented in order to alleviate problems with food production and access to fish for instance?

Dhaka city where I moved in1973 it was a very friendly city with lots of water bodies and play grounds. After playing football we always jumped into the ponds. But that sort of water bodies do not exist because they got transformed to land for high rise buildings. If there is rain there is water on the streets without good sewage. The average temperature is also very high, 37 degrees but people experience 45 due to humidity. If we can implement small pilot projects, there would be an imminent cool down. Even if there is water scarcity, one family could save their household used water and serve the cycle of the aquaponics system. Accidents could not affect the system that much, they could still have vegetables. It is popular because in winter we have a lot of vegetables but during summer their amount decreases and contains lots of chemicals. In the aquaponics system the vegetables are healthier. This time diseases are a huge problem, the specialise hospitals are full of patients. Now I’m also managing to grow vegetables vertically. If we can install these aquaponics i hope health will improve as well. This year in ‘vertiponics’ I tried and managed to grow 15 strawberry plants instead of just one in conventional system. On the lands after harvesting we need some intermediate time for soil maintenance. But in this system after harvesting one can plant immediately because it stays to be fertile. That is also an advantage of aquaponics system. I’m having dialogue with people in Dhaka and with some potential investors how we could make pilot projects to reduce water evaporation because it is a huge issue. Without results I cannot talk about exact numbers. I also live in the city and I have a system on my rooftop without shading, etcetera and it works really well. 500 and 200 litre tanks are working. No problems and no negative symptoms for the plants. Can you tell us how efficient is your system, for instance how much food your system can produce?

All my systems are in feasibility development phase. With some MSc students we were checking it. If I compare the production to the regular practice sometimes I have 7 times better results. Fish (Tilapia) production in Bangladesh by hectare is 20 tons in 8-9 month. In 3,5 months I make 84 tons per hectare. In the aquaponics I used tap water, which is worse but still 3 times more production. Now I have to calculate water use and electricity use. If we have the results small systems may not be profitable but bigger ones could be. Profit also comes if we consider health though. This is organic. In the morning I harvest at 7am, my wife cooks and in 20 minutes we have fresh nutritionally rich and healthy meal. In that

perspective this technique could serve a family especially concerning the fish. In USA some schools have installed the system and students managed to maintain it. The marks in chemistry, maths and physics within the students was higher among those who took care of it compared to schools that did not have it. When they had the system it made them happier! It is a fantastic result indeed. So it also has a community binding factor like gardening does. How much aquaponics would be needed to support a family concerning the nutritional values and the protein from the fish? How many square metre could support a family?

This system doesn’t provide with 100% because it is small. But 30-40% it will for sure. My aim in the beginning was to challenge the vegetable prices that go really high during the Ramadan. So I didn’t want to buy these that time. This background target was completely fulfilled, we had vegetables for my family every day. Now we have 150 square metres. I started harvesting and consuming back in January I finished my tomato yesterday (10th April). So for 4 months I did not have to buy tomato. I only used 6 jerry can of 26 litre to plant tomatoes and had 20.5 kilo harvested in 3 months. If you convert this to hectares, people will not believe me. Officials from Dhaka came to watch my system and they didn’t believe that I could grow this amount of food without soil. I had international visitors to see my system. Now it is being introduced in Japan. My colleague there didn’t manage to grow vegetables before my system. It is still not even 100% efficient since all the parts are reused and converted materials since there are no professional distributors in Bangladesh. If I had proper tools I think the production would be even higher.

Do you think there is a potential to realise the system vertically? So if we could find the way to have energy efficiency rentable and would set up vertical high rise installations with aquaponics, would that help the city? ‘Vertiponics’ is already more efficient than just aquaponics. Actually it would be energy efficient with one water tank if you can pump fast in 10 minutes to the vertical water collector. In a few hours the water irrigates to the pipes. Eventually, it is viable if the fish tank is bigger so half of the water can be used for plants and half for the fish. 2-5 tons fish tank can make a system feasible. Small commercial system could be good, they work well. Currently, I am testing all different vegetables. This time I planted corn. In my balcony it is almost 18 feet long pipe. You can see this video on my YouTube. With one pump I can make the water travel through a 36 feet long pipe. It is quite efficient. But my plants are very healthy. I am trying to transplant the corn because baby corn is not available in Bangladesh. But corn is also good for health and my family wants me to grow corn in the system if possible.